tv Bloomberg Daybreak Americas Bloomberg November 19, 2018 7:00am-9:00am EST
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this right. the: theresa may goes on offense, trying to sell brexit to businesses. acrimony, there is no communicate for the first time in decades. there are fears of a cold war in asia. they look to remove him as the chairman of nissan and others from the board. welcome to bloomberg daybreak. happy thanksgiving week. david westin is off today. news is coming fast and furious. here's where markets are looking to open. futures are down nine or 10. this is a shortened holiday week in the u.s. on thursday, markets are close. we do see some movement on the fx front. this is really moving as well.
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up twou.s., yields are basis points. goldman sachs has their outlook, they are looking for a weaker dollar and stronger yen. crude is flat on the day. it's time now for our first take. we are joined by bloomberg intelligence. it's that breaking at 4:00. the headlines came fast and furious. the stock is getting hammered over in europe. the question is it looks like he was arrested, he is not reporting. what do we know it this point. mike: we don't know a lot. it's not just about misreporting con's, but using company resources. they are going to explain what
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we know what this point. it's taking place in japan. he's the head of a number of companies, including renault in france. this is a japanese issue right now. alix: the idea is you get a headline and ross the market. cks the market. that innocence is the problem. this is one other factor that is continuing to punish this company. this news hit, it was down 30%. a enormous number of challenges with chinese exposure. now you have something like this. it's a stock that was already struggling and investors were looking for reasons to dump it. this is another reason. europeans not like the auditors were crushing before. mike: there were some changes to
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emission standards in germany. they had a tough time. it did not help the fragile workers sell into germany. as he was stepping out of his ale, he was trying to set up strategic plan for the future of the companies. while he ran the companies, they were not 100% owned i each other. it was not one big company. there was talk about a renault and nissan merger. this is not going to happen now. alix: a brexit deal is probably not going to happen. theresa may spoke earlier, again trying to defend her brexit plan. >> while the world is changing fast, our geography is not. europe will always be our most approximate goods market, having free borders is crucial. alix: i wanted to point this
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out. this encompasses the and tire argument. she said it will take us back to square one. it means more division and more uncertainty. there is no different approach that we can agree on with the eu. what is the market going to get that? it's her deal or nothing. mike: maybe march 29, when they are supposed to leave. there does not seem to be an alternative. transition,d the but were not going to change anything in the treaty. one group is drafting changes to it. the other problem is the uncertainty you have going forward is drawing in some lukewarm support from british business. she spoke to the cbi today. they don't love it. it's better than a hard crash out. gina: i think it's interest in
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destin interesting to think about the broader points. we are talking about a brexit from a struggling eu. think about what the euro has been doing. for them.ter of time the german gdp is struggling. it's dragging down global growth expectations. if you look at the charts, the brexit is not effectively dragging british assets lower than european assets. the pound is relative to the euro, it's been rallying. the european exchanges have been underperforming the british exchanges. bad in mainland europe from a broader political perspective and turmoil is intense on both economies. alix: it's not like their growth was crushing it either. let's get to the third story.
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friday,eft it noon on the rhetoric was everything is going to be great. then 24 hours later, that wasn't the case. xi speakinge and harsh words to each other. >> mankind has reached a crossroads, which direction should we choose? >> the united states will not change course. until china changes his ways. alix: what did you make over the last 72 hours to mark gina: it's not going to be over anytime soon. when you make of it is the equities have largely priced in the risk. we have tried to price the actual growth margin. what is the earnings impact of trade risk with china? every product we import from china is tariff to 25%,
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everything we export is characters well. you've only got another 30 basis points of downward pressure. we've got a long way to pricing this in. more from the5% s&p 500. we've got a long way to price this into the stock specific risk. it's going to be a drag on evaluations. this is just a lot of noise amid a tumultuous environment. it may not create much more downside. constricting or a one-way road, that's a big shot. questions gets to the the chinese are asking. is the united states try to do something about the trade deficit or are they trying to hold down china's growth as a country. a saw the vice president make
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serious gesture toward china by flying over the south china sea. this is the area they are trying to set up military bases. we are not going to put up with their restrictions on the free flow through the south china sea. this is a real confrontation. the advice seemed to be ignore everything in the run-up to the summit in buenos aires and see what happens. trump c-suite he can negotiate. he doesn't prepare. no one thinks the u.s. has a plan. it's going to defend what the president does in the room. i am not expecting that. alix: thank you so much. a reminder, you can find all the charts we use on your terminal.
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tos is the likely candidate lead if the deal takes place. revenue sort better than expected at xiaomi. are having demand for mobile devices. shipment's rose 21% while the global smart firm -- phone market shrank. the sunday times and the u.k. for they put a deposit exclusivity in negotiations. fetch $3 billion. that your bloomberg business flash. alix: the sun motor said it will seek the removal of him after discovering misconduct by the chairman. he was arrested in tokyo for violating financial trading laws. isning us now from beijing
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our asian news desk editor. at this point, what are the facts as we know them? emma: we are waiting for a press conference to start. that's from nissan. it's been put off by about an hour. they are coming to grips with bombshell news. the national broadcaster said the chairman of renault has been arrested in tokyo for breaches of financial laws. said, it nissan has has to do with ghosn reporting his compensation. andan is going after him eight director as well. he also underreported his compensation as a way of reducing ghosn's. asx: how unusual is it for
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authorities to go after executives of a company that has been idolized in the country for many years. he transformed the company. emma: this comes after a string of scandals in corporate japan, particularly when it comes to the carmakers. scandals beset by around commission standards and quality. nissan is in the midst of controversy. regulators discovered they were using uncertified inspectors to approve vehicles. it's not unprecedented. for somebody of the statue to be embroiled in a scandal such as this, it's very unusual. alix: thank you very much. the market reaction is interesting. the futures market. when the headlines it, futures rollover.
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this tells me it's not a nissan story, it's how jumpy we are on any kind of headline. >> there are so many crosscurrents right now. we have europe slowing. we have the fed for the market does not know if they are talking the same language. the overriding issue with tariffs and the g20 meeting, there's a lot of action beneath the surface. -- maximize options. we look at the price of insurance relative to what we think the value of ensuring the portfolio is. i look at options on the s&p 500 that expire in december. i see some good deals. the uncertainty that comes from this g20 meeting is significant. what the resolution is and as gina said earlier, it's very difficult to say. investors should be looking very hard at ensuring some of the
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gains still left in portfolios this year. alix: you really need that up for us. the apex summit made a resolution difficult. they did not have a joint communique. mike pence spent the week butting heads with the chinese president over trade. here is what they said. >> mankind has reached a crossroads. which direction it should we choose, cooperation are confrontation? >> the united states will not change course until china changes its ways. catherine: join us also is mark mccormack. just talked about the uncertainty surrounding the g20. volatility can we expect ahead of the g20? mark: there is a lot more volatility on the trade front.
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there is a lot working through the market. central banks are becoming more aggressive. inflation starting to pick up globally. all of this gets amplified through the geopolitical rhetoric. there's a lot of uncertainty around what the g20 will produce. we've good stories and bad stories. we are focused on what we heard last. that's the point where things don't seem as rosy as they did one week ago. the markets are more optimistic because there has been so much negativity priced into global asset prices. if you don't get a deal, if rhetoric is pushed off and increases next year, there is room for a relief rally in the last month of the year. alix: the other part of the stories china. they were dealing with a slowdown from 2016. when you get a trade deal, how
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much will they be able to do for the economy? dean: we looked at asset prices mostly. right now, the disconnect is between asset prices which can be forward-looking and some dislocation versus the real economy right now. in the u.s., that's strong and doesn't show signs of slowing down. in china, that's a different story. they are dealing with the actual real economy. they have the opportunity and the ability to charge this they get on and they have done that multiple times. nothing says they can't do that again. it becomes less and less impactful for the real economy. they will probably try to do something. they are already throwing a bunch of stuff that. what they will have to give up for a trade deal, the
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value of the currency would be easier for them to ignite as exports. be modestlyal will higher. mark: there are a lot of different ways to think about it. ist policymakers are doing playing a longer game. china will be running a current account deficit. china is means is going to be required to see investors bring portfolio flows into china and limit the weakness in the exchange rate. this goes back to there not been a particular level they are looking for. they want to reduce the volatility of the comes to the exchange rate. leveraging, part of the process. you have the trade wars and the implications. the backdrop is you have more think what weg, i are seeing is the markets becoming more accustomed to that
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idea. china could be delivering fiscal u.s. to is good for the the rest of the world equity stories. keepinghe comes back to the fluctuation around the exchange rate more stable. alix: fair point. both of you are sticking with me. we are talking about risk on the rise. we are going to break that down and get to the trade. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tenet: when people think about using options, it goes toward protecting. portfolio,tect your noting that the last two months of the year are typically quite good for equity markets. there's almost a seasonality toward november and december. one of the things you can do to be defensive is take some of your long equity exposure and swap it out for a call option. that gives you continued upside in the market. to the extent that something unforeseen or unwelcome comes from the g20 meeting, you will .se your option you are not just long on the call action. that's one defensive strategy. i would want to add there is an absolute surgeon hedging in an instrument called the hyg. the option volume is four times
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the average. options, theput downside versus the outside trade is 6-1. what we've seen earlier this year was equity volatility and the selloff in february and march. that was an impacting other parts of the market. it started to hit the credit market as well. there is a lot of nervousness on the credit side. alix: there is a lot of nervousness in the call for any asset classes. you can really see that. if you look at the dollar call, this is only the big dollar bull. city, morgan stanley, they are talking about the peaking dollar and growth slowing in the u.s. we are dollar bears going into next year. we would frame this in the context of multiple dollars.
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dollar, this is not just a commodity basket anymore. you also have reserve currency like euro-yen and the swiss. these different currency baskets will have different inflection points. this is what you highlighted. this story will have much more macro volatility. these different economies and the different capital flows, the growth dynamics are moving away from a purely bullish dollar stance this point. alix: how much more juice can you yield in the u.s.? has that stalled out? mark: that's a big element. there is a lot of discussion of that. the view we have had is the dollar divergence is through equity markets, through credit markets. qualityhort-term low
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capital flow. the dollar is benefiting. risk-adjusted returns have outperformed the rest of the world. it's not really a yield of play. if you look at the two-year spread it, we are trading at a 20% discount. our view here is as you get more generate a that will .eaker backdrop for the dollar alix: investors are more bearish on the pound in 2016. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ phone rings ] what?!
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ready for christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. alix: david westin is off today. it's so much for your slowed news monday. s&p is off about 10. nissan carlos ghosn was arrested
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for misreporting his cops. the futures are low for the session. european stocks are holding up. italian futures are the good performers. the government says it's ready to cost -- cut wasteful spending. the euro goes nowhere. it is a mixed dollar story. the call coming up from the big banks, that's the top this morning. goldman sachs sees a weaker dollar. morgan stanley as well. they are looking for u.s. underperformance starting to happen. you have sterling a little bit weaker. that inoing to look at just a few minutes. the conversation is goldman says it will invert in the second half of next year, leading to
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the weaker dollar story. crews off. theresa may is making the case for her deal. she is trying to get business backing for her brexit plan. she spoke earlier at the cbi conference in london. changingthe world is fast, our geography is not. europe will always be our most approximate goods market and having free borders is crucial. alix: joining us is an edwards. what was the goal here? what was her pitch? played, thatip you is probably more destined for the ears of the brexiteers. that makes it was interesting because it gets back at those who suggest we should be prioritizing work with other partners.
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that's not an argument she wanted to go along with. she was asked today what she would say to those in her party who don't like to deal. she said don't listen to me or members of parliament. listen to what business says. here is as represented giving a fairly decent welcome to what she brought back from brussels. they are cautiously optimistic about the deal and the lack of friction it would add to the supply chains. she is calling on businesses to speak out in favor of the deal and to tell people how much they like it. not all business likes it of course. alix: we know over the weekend when she wrote an op-ed in the sonnet, she said it's this or nothing. if they reject the deal, they will take us back to square one.
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there is no alternative plan on the table. is she still going to be prime minister over the next two weeks? anna: there is a leadership challenge that lurks in the background. they don't have the 48 letters that would need to be sent to trigger a contest. that could still happen by the end of the week. they have not declared they have that support. then we moved to the next question, this is linked to what she wrote. it's going to be a choice between deal or no deal. the labor party rejects that. they will choose to send her back or send them back to do a better deal. that's not the way theresa may sees it. we will have to watch the detail of how that conversation develops about what the mps will be voting for and what the
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implications would be if they voted for no deal. alix: thanks so much. still west -- with us is dean and mark. this says it all. it's british pound volatility. it's at the highest level since 2016. these negotiations are so complex. unless you are in the weeds, it's difficult to know which way is heading. we try to take a cue from asset prices. the center of the storm potentially is the british pound. they are starting to price in more substantial moves. brexit, highest since it's not close to where the actual vote was at the time. we are starting to see the differential in volatility that is paid downside puts.
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hedgers are starting to be more active. another thing we try to pay attention to is correlation. brexit was an event where the pound fell and the u.k. stock market fell at the same time. that got very positive. it's starting to get back to negative, to about zero. we think that's worth watching as well. it is so complex. it doesn't feel like a good thing to be happening now. this, butwe are doing now it's the reckoning. it's two years in the making. the hard stuff is happening. alix: the rhetoric was it will be ok because global growth is so strong. now, not so much. is 236mium to buy put basis points. what is your trade? mark: i think the trade is simple. you want to sell volatility and
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look at the steepened version on the volatility curve. you can find us that by selling a put. you can have a zero cost option. playe same time, trying to the reversion of the volatility curve. the scenarios and the next move for sterling is largely one an outcome where you get a good outcome. breakfastss a soft -- brexit, the implied probability is much more skewed toward the sterling upside. that's the trade, pricing up the skew and looking for the volatility curve at the front
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and to revert to something normal. alix: that's a good point, especially when the headlines are very dramatic. odds of a second referendum. they are at 40%. you have to position for upside. if you get a better outcome are a second referendum or if the deal goes through. dean: the market has priced in things that have not materialized. that can be the u.s. election, volatility, marks analysis sounds spot on in assessing relatively. you want to be able to step in where prices get really high. if there are clever structures around that, you could be more favorable than what is priced in. alix: his or anything to look at more broadly, how they are performing in general?
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there is slowing growth in europe. the wages are picking up in the u k. how do you look at that? economy weuropean should be paying a lot of attention to. qe, i don't know if that is going to happen. they seem resolute on doing so. the european economy is slowing. it is structurally weak to begin with. italy is in a very difficult circumstance. we have to worry about the markets themselves, punishing the bad actors with higher levels of risk premium. sawrsing to that spiral we in those bad days of 2011, europe is putting a lot of backstop mechanisms. we should be watching nominal yields on italian debt. alix: currently the 10-year is at 3050. what do you think?
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what is so paramount is a global component to it. if you look at the euro last year, the german yield curve was steepening faster than the u.s. and the 10 year ghosn -- bonded was rising. there is a global element we captured in our empirical models. there is also a global factor. germany could turn into a beneficial thing if the markets moved toward a green party scenario where there is more of a federation being belt -- built. you have to think about the italian situation. the biggest driver right now is what happens globally with the trade war, what happens between european and u.s. equities. the biggest driver of the euro has been the fact that all of the capital flow that went into european equities have reversed completely. we've seen more downside there. , ifrowth numbers come back
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those things to start to subside, there is an element here were european assets look very cheap. the euro is around 114 on our forecast. that looks very attractive. the one periphery trick is norway is in the sweet spot. it's running 4.5%. a beta to european politics. was the cheapest trade going into the end of the year, it's the norwegian currency. alix: nice job. it was a pleasure to see you. coming up, ghosn with the wind. we will look at his controversial tenure at renault. this is bloomberg. ♪
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emma: this is the enterprise green room. the founder and ceo. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg daybreak. this is your business flash. , the companyan named the former merrill lynch banker the new ceo. the board has been stacked with directors. the firm is seeking an overhaul. they have pledged $100 million to support private investment in the permian basin.
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chevron and royal dutch shell are participating. former secretary of state condoleezza rice says she is not a candidate to coach the nfl's cleveland browns. she took to face back -- facebook to knocked down an espn report. she is a passionate football fan and one served on the college football playoff selection committee. alix: we turn to wall street to cover three things. going with the win. there were ceos arrested in japan. the struggling asset manager seeks to retain fund managers by giving bonuses. fidelity shifts to women. they open up about the details on why they are shifting 22
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billion dollars to women. we literally just had this conversation off-line. package,ok at his pay it's pretty extraordinary and he was underpaid. it's been a huge controversy where the french government has said it we think he's being paid too much. this is an ongoing battle. also, he said we don't know enough about ghosn. to your point, they are invested and how much he gets paid. he gets paid less than other car ceos. it's a conversation about who was in charge. >> i don't understand how somebody can underreport public company. it has to go beyond just him. it has to go beyond him.
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somebody is reporting this income. somethinghere erasing and putting something else in. people are reporting this for you this is going to be a much bigger issue. aboutalso, we talked callbacks and the idea that you have to have performance tied to,. comp.s slowly -- >> people were talking about giving this much pay. perform, we have a right to call that money back. that has really gone away. we will see if it starts to come back because of some of these issues now. he holds several different roles in this trio alliance of mitsubishi, nissan, and renault. there is a lot of pay tied to
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three different roles. it's complicated. alix: his performance you wasn't so good. >> this has been happening more and more. alix: there will be a press conference at the top of the hour. talk about pay. they are offering a retention managers, please don't leave. we don't want to go out of business. thanis company has embattled. they are trying to retain their top talent. sellew ceo is trying to some of the assets. if you're trying to sell part of your business, you want the star theyer to be able to say are still going to be there. alix: catherine: it also brings in the asset managers in general
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having a tough time. a's not like it's noncompetitive business. >> it's not a unique story. you want to retain top talent. you have to pay up for it or they are lured away by other companies and you suffer the consequences. andmuch do they have to pay for how long do they have to keep this going. it doesn't paint the picture to your other fund managers if you're not the one they pay to retain. where?nd go i don't know. let's get to this great story. peggy was the head writer on this. it has to do with fidelity and abby johnson taking control of the company. you had an interview with her. >> i got 90 minutes with her. kathy murphy is running the
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financing unit. they talked about why they want to go the index funds. they are offering them for free. she wanted people to know of us. she is down on traditional advertising. we decided that it's so cheap as they are that this was a move we could may contain a lot of attention and get people to try us. talked about cryptocurrency and how they got into that business. they were attracting more women clients. as more women stay single and live longer than men. alix: interesting. also wives of going to zero fees, it's interesting to begin with. >> they are going to make the money.
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>> this is a business that doesn't make a lot of money anyway. we are going to give you something for free. a lot of the other investment banks will be out of the space if you are not having 100,000 plus clients. you are looking to move your money someplace anyway. , allthey announced this their competitors got trashed. any made a big splash in advertising namespace. they brought that attention to focus on themselves. it was a really smart move. alix: it's a great read it. i suggest you find it on the terminal. thanks a lot. it's always great to catch up with you. coming up, betting on junk. how he is playing the high-yield market. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: the story in the credit market is the widening in the high-yield market. will credit leave it equities? join us on the phone is the academy securities had of microstrategy. it had a phenomenal pyramid that you sent to clients. where are we in credit investment? you say you can find a value where no one else can. you are just below i am a credit genius. what does it actually mean? peter: it takes a look at the investor psychology. people are not as excited about credit as they were in 2007. there is not that level of complexity. it's not going to turn into a tailspin. it's really not going to hit
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investment-grade in a meaningful way. people have been very cautious this whole time. there is a lot of debt, there are a lot of investors. you have this kind of wild and crazy training. this could get worse. the companies in the investment-grade market are very solid companies. they are well aware of their need. people overreact for no good reason. we've got a lot of leverage and smaller companies. if earnings growth is not strong, that's a problem. they will shape up balance sheets. you wind up having leverage in the oil sector. you have credit widening. walk me through that issue and why concerns you less? shifted from the eighth or ninth inning of this game and we are starting to
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shift to the first inning where some of the weaker companies or companies under more pressure have to take care of their balance sheet to protect shareholders. we see dividend cuts and the suspension of stock buybacks. companies are taking bonds the market. they are using cash flow to pay down debt. we've seen a shift in psychology. have you hedge that? starts withnk it high-yield now. if you look at your equity investments, you have to take a look at the company that has a lot of debt that is not been deleveraging. don't be shorting the credit, do you want this?
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alix: look it ge and pg&e, the talk about the credit markets. peter: 100 billion is the amount of debt ge has. they are a long way from being junk. people will settle in. what we see is as these a lot ofns occur, companies will just hold onto that debt. i think it will come down and be a buying opportunity. alix: we are way above the just protect me stage. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: theresa may goes on offense trying to sell the brexit deal to the public and the parliament letters role in. aipac acrimony. the asia-pacific summit ends with no -- vice president pence and president xi clash. and ghosn in crisis. carlos ghosn arrested in tokyo for underreporting compensation. nissan looks to report -- to remove him as chairman. and you're looking at a live news conference where we are waiting on nissan executives to join us. we will bring you those headlines as they cross. , carlosow from reports ghosn has been arrested in japan. the arrest a very dramatic few hours that have unfolded for carlos ghosn. nissan looking to remove him from the board. it looks like that might be just a formality. we are looking for nissan to
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start their briefing in tokyo in a few minutes. we will update you with any headlines as they come out. a dramatic day in terms of headline. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on monday. so much for a quiet monday. i'm alix steel. we are looking at more risk off field. the dollar is getting stronger. futures down by about nine points, dragged lower after that nissan news earlier this morning. euro-dollar now flat. against mostronger g10 currencies, and a little bit of selling on the margins. lots of calls on the dollar and yield curve inversion. by.10 yield curve inversion 2019. let's get an update on what is making headlines outside of the business world. emma chandra is here with first word news. emma: in japan, surprise developments involving carlos ghosn, one of the best-known
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executives in the auto industry. the japanese company is preparing to dismiss ghosn after uncovering acts of serious misconduct. japanese news media reports ghosn has been arrested over the breach of financial trading laws. trump u.s., president says the u.s. will issue its own report on the killing of komal: 70 by tomorrow. the present -- of jamal khashoggi by tomorrow. the cia has concluded that saudi salmanrince solman -- -- >> theresa may is speaking to the confederation of brexit -- it has little support among her own conservative party. some of those lawmakers are campaigning to get rid of her. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700
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journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. alix: in a bid to get business deal,fter the brexit theresa may spoke with business leaders in london. >> while the world is changing fast, our geography is not. europe will always be our most proximate good markets and ensuring we have flea -- free from borders is crucial. joining us is bloomberg's anna edwards. that was are setting up what is not terrible about this deal. what is businesses response? the cbi's response has been positive. they were on the side of remain before the vote. they wanted the u.k. to remain within the european union. that ship sailed and now they are catching up with events.
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nay -- they now say they favor theresa may's deal, versus the other option, no deal. they like this deal and think we need to move on. they like the element of certainty this deal would provide. at least there would be a transition period agreed. there would be an fog in the future, but they like some certainty, that is why they are giving it a cautious welcome. alix: we are also taking a look at the nissan press conference. nissan officials are now speaking. let's listen in. he misrepresented the tokyo stock exchange securities report , misrepresenting the purpose of spending the company's investment. that is the second one. the third one, he used the company's assets for personal use.
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these are the three categories of misconduct uncovered and we knowledge these facts. i am unable to talk about but needless to say this is an act that cannot be tolerated by the company. experts judged this gives enough reason for dismissal. this is a serious misconduct. , we decided to propose dismissal of him through the board of directors. officially, the day after tomorrow. thursday, we are going to organize the board meeting where we propose the removal of him from the position of chairman and director.
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i'm going to convene the board meeting. mastermind time, the of this event will be removed from the position of representative director. unveiled, buty the public prosecutor investigation is in progress. these two gentlemen are rested in the evening. that is what i understand. therefore, the details of this i have limitations what i can disclose considering the ongoing investigation by the public prosecutor's office. based on the whistleblowers report about auditors, and we conducted a journal investigation. as a result, we discover the misconduct.
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a series of significant misconduct led by these two gentlemen. based on the contents of this event, in parallel, we made the report of the events in the prosecutor's office and we have incorporating -- we have been cooperating with the prosecutor's investigation and we will continue to do so. in a position to talk about the progress of the investigation itself. as a result of the progress of the investigation, we heard the arrest has been made on two gentlemen. these are the facts i can talk about. stakeholders, i am sorry.
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on behalf of the company, i would like to express my deep apologies. , from theny standpoint of the company, what is we need to eliminate the significant misconduct, for collaboration with the investigation, and identify the issues. need to look back on what happened, seriously, and take immediate and fundamental countermeasures to solve this. these are the things we have to do. having said that, more yearsantly, i four long nissan hasng years,
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been supported by a variety of stakeholders and there are a lot of stakeholders we are reporting. largely turnede them down and lost confidence of unfortunate and i feel very sorry. not only in japan, but employees around the world in our distribution network. dealers, i am sure you're anxious and b willard we caused a commotion is -- and b willard ered we caused commotion and anxiety. i am personally devoting myself
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of the nissany revival plan. , as an executive committee member, we have been working as a team to do our best and that is what we are doing. discoveredduct was and is represented a significant misconduct. it is difficult to express it in words. unfortunate -- beyond , i feelrry disappointment and frustration. alix: you've been listening to the nissan ceo saying he feels more than sorry, he feels disappointment. talking about carlos ghosn, he confirms he has been arrested along with greg kelly, a representative director.
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he said harsh words that there was serious misconduct on earth by auditors that initially raised the issue. compensation not being reported correctly and used for personal use. you are looking for the -- your listing to the nissan ceo. we will continue to follow the headlines. it appears the board will dismiss him officially on thursday, and the nissan ceo confirming carlos ghosn's arrest. bloombergs craig qingdao leads coverage of bloomberg autos. what did you make of all of this that has unraveled in the last four hours? .> i'm in the same boat it is hard to overstate the significance of ghosn's to nissan and renault and this alliance. , and rightfully so, as a savior both of those countries and came to the rescue in the last few years to mitsubishi motors.
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this is a guy who in japanese business culture loomed so large. he had comic book strachan of him years ago because of the role he played in bringing these on back. this is someone -- with this big of an executive in corporate japan and for him to go down like this is shocking. alix: you can see the nissan ceo continuing to speak, apologizing and saying he feels a heavy disappointment. it seems like an emotional press conference on that. you mentioned how important he is to nissan. the alliance of it to be she and nissan and renault, the combination of a renault/nissan tie up. where does this leave the conversation. has been aubishi bolt on addition in the last few years. the two companies that have embedded themselves with one
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another are renault and nissan. on an annual basis, you hear these companies come forward and talk about the amount of synergy they have found, the amount of shared platforms, shared parts. these two companies have a meshed themselves with one another. there is a question about how you go forward and to what extent these are companies that can be separated. what happens to the future of these companies. definitely don't was positioning was stepping ghosn back from the day-to-day of running renault and nissan and focusing on the long-term future and solidifying the combination of these companies. alix: even if you look at his pay, compared to global auto executives, it was like half of the average, even though it was still quite large. it is interesting that was still the case. craig: right, and you saw over the years, and france,
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especially, his pay was controversial. there were regular run ins with regulators, with the unions who took issue with his pay. there was a measure in france that was implemented as a reaction to his pay. emmanuel macron and carlos ghosn were at loggerheads years ago, in part that had to do with how you combine renault and nissan and the compensation. one of the things that is most interesting about what ghosn has done is thinking about his run-ins with mccrone years ago. you had a situation where this it is hard to think of a culture than a very japanese company and a very has beenmpany, and he able to manage that monumental challenge over the years. end,ems that in the
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potentially at risk of falling apart. alix: great point on the cultural clash. friends provident macron made comments in brussels. -- french president macron made comments in brussels. you can see the nissan seo continuing the top. apologizing and saying -- continuing the talk. the dismissal of carlos ghosn and greg kelly. he does not think there will be an impact on the alliance. we will continue and keep you updated. thank you so much, craig, appreciate it. alix: s&p futures turned in the red is markets continue to show sensitivity to negative news good negative volatility expected to increase throughout the year. that is according to unicredit's new report on the macro outlook for 2019 and 2020. joining me are the authors of the report. the unicredit head of macro
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research and the unicredit cohead of strategy research. thank you for joining us and your patience. is stand out to me, marco, your calling and end to the bull market. we're going to see more volatility. walk me through the pieces. story next is going to be slow down on a global growth, especially in the u.s. in the second half of next year. we are seeing growth fall below trend as the fiscal stimulus wanes. we believe the fed will level three more hikes next year and into an next year. then they will stop after the economy starts losing momentum and they may well reverse and stop cutting rates in 2020, where another forecast the u.s. economy has always endured a recession. what will be the trigger of this slow down initiative, we think
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mainly the corporate balance sheet, which are getting stretched, and the fed hike rates and monetary and financial conditions. due to the rear deleveraging of the corporate sector in the u.s. that will explore the fall the ability of the u.s. economy, once the fiscal stimulus starts peering out. interesting is in 2020 you see the fed cutting rates three times. many economists look at the fed peaking out or a mild recession, but three times to cut rates. what made you think that? marco: i am taking this one. it is going to be a pivotal framework. if you throw in growth and inflation in 2020, that is what you ante up with. at least three rate cuts by the
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fed. , walk that through an investment process? what does that wind up meeting for the dollar? philip: four currency markets, this is looking like a slowdown. the implications on currencies -- for euro-dollar we think current trend on the weaker euro will continue into next year and it will bottom out mid next year and we will likely see a stronger euro toward the end of next year and toward 2024. we see euro dollars going as low increase up told 1.20 end of 2020. the most important implications for markets is the difference in
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the shape of the corporate sector in the u.s. and europe. there are concern is that in the u.s. we could see balance sheet issues. beeurope, it will only earnings issues. alix: what is the contagion issue with that? contagion -- the big issue here is we will likely see not only a slowdown in earnings, but also, as we have seen in the u.s. corporate sector over the last days like ge, companies need to be leveled and equity markets in the u.s. have been supported strongly by large amount of cash handout to shareholders and that is likely going to reverse. that is going to hit equity markets and impacting the risk sentiment in general. of course, that will likely lead
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to lower equity valuations. we could see a drop-down next year of up to 20%, also in the european equity market. that is going to be substantial. that is the major issue. in that environment, you want to have non-risky assets and a much more defensive allocation. you want to be exposed to treasuries. alix: from a broader perspective, you talked a lot about the fed. what about stimulus in the u.s.? hiteads to believe we have peak sugar highs. in china your respective of many trade issues. walk me through that. rco: when it comes to global growth, china is quite relevant. assuming there would be a further increase in tariffs on on $200ent 10% to 25%
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billion of chinese imports in the u.s., the further escalation from that point on so are risks are going both ways. for example, we could be more positive than expected if we believed by the end of the month, there is going to be an agreement between trump and the chinese president on the potential trade deal. if that is going to be the case, it could pose risks to our forecast. if you're going to see a increase in tensions on trade. a trade war, it implies downside risk. there is a lot of risk. taking into account further escalation of the trade war, but meaningfulion with
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global implication, at least in terms of direct impact. the fiscal stimulus in the u.s. will be crucial to keep the u.s. growth above trend for the first half of next year. that is what will lead the fed to hike through the second quarter of next year. reaches 3%, which is a neutral level, i think they would be willing to stop and wait and see. and our forecast, growth than starts falling back and that will trigger rate cuts in 2020. alix: marco and philip of unicredit, thank you for your 2018 outlook. we look at companies worth watching this morning. today it is one story and it is focused on these on after the arrest of carlos ghosn. brooke joins us. we have the press conference going on. a q and day has started.
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the nissan see -- has been hasnant -- the nissan ceo talked about the concentration of power for many years and one person and that going forward, the alliance of mitsubishi and nissan and renault will not have that kind of controlled power. chris, you've been following the story. what is your general takeaway? chris: still a lot of unanswered questions. we do not know the significance of the allegations yet. mr. ghosn has not had the ability to comment on them. management at nissan saying the alliance will endure. quite a few questions. mr. ghosn was such a fundamental figure that over the years piece together that alliance. these were very different cultures and by jetting across the globe, mr. ghosn
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single-handedly kept that together. what happens now? alix: a big question. assets for personal use, compensation reported incorrectly, all of that amounting to serious misconduct. brooke, your takeaway. brooke: one thing i wonder is why now. itis makes the point that was not on don't he crisscrossed the world on jets. there was a lot of contention that shareholder votes just in the past couple of years. it is interesting to see this coming to a head now. i believe what the company has said the auditors brought to life some of these discrepancies. this is a continuation of tensions for the alliance. you saw nissan get upset when the french government made a power grab in 2015 to increase its stake. they're been rumblings from that side about the benefits of a merger and whether that might ever be something that might work.
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i wonder if this is a continuation of tensions and a means to break up the alliance. alix: fairpoint. glass lewis advised shareholders to vote against the reappointment of carlos ghosn in 2017. now?, why chris: it is a good question. speculation that to remove the conglomerate discount, which weighs on shares, mr. combs would pursue a deeper alliance, a merger. in recent months there was speculation that were not happen so quickly. a lot of tension within the alliance because nissan contributes a lot more profitability compared to renault. renault holds a much larger state in nissan than the other way around. you can imagine that within the company's there are differing views as to how they should pan out in the future. one option would be to totally
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unravel the alliance, another would be to pursue a deeper merger. my bet would be that nothing much happens, while some of these questions about mr. ghosn's behavior are answered. alix: the underlying issue is how difficult it is to be a european automaker. how they compete with the likes of other car companies? brooke: having that combination gives you the scale and leverage to spread these investments, especially when you look at electric vehicles and autonomous driving. just one data point i did have to bring up on mr. jones pay. pay. mr. ghosn's he gets it from three different companies. that was about $17 million in 2017. when you compare that to rival automakers, it is not that far out of left field. gm's was a 24 million dollars, ford at $16.3 million. that does put it in perspective.
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there is different tensions given the three governments in play, i think that helps keep it in context. tone in the press conference seemed harsh. we are seeing more anger than sorrow, even though you have the ceo saying he's deeply sorry for shareholders and deeply disappointed. it feels like he is really throwing carlos ghosn under the bus. no defense of that. what does that mean? if you have the ceo saying come out of the bus, what is the -- going forward? chris: you mentioned throwing under the bus. that feels exactly like what has happened. there remains to be seen whether that is fair or not. he has not had the opportunity to address the allegations against him. -- the boardoard will not meet until tomorrow to formally remove mr. ghosn from office.
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another question is what renault does now. are separate issues in theory, but will probably be linked in this instance. chris, who might be next. who might be able to take the reins of the company? are there any ceos in the auto world who come to mind? it is a good question. here are a step down as chief executive at nissan. he remains at renault. there is a successor waiting. renault appointed a chief operating officer, who is all the skills one would need to run the company. the question of who would run the alliance is a more difficult one. it demands a sensitive handling of the different cultures between the companies. there is not an obvious candidate. i'm afraid time will tell. alix: time will definitely tell. in the meantime, what is your
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next question? if you're doing a company in crisis that does not have to do with your reporting our sales or your future, it has to do with something this dramatic, how do you get past that? i think theooke: key is stability. there is still a number of succession questions the companies and the alliance will have to answer quickly. what you are seeing in the stock prices of the company is this uncertainty. there are people waiting in the wings as chris mentioned, but the sooner you can get them in those roles and provide a plan will put the markets aligned. much. -- alix: banks very great analysis. the nissan ceo has been speaking for the last half hour. apologetic,wful, and angry if i mentioned that. coming in no way to the defense of the company and carlos ghosn.
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he says he wants to revisit the governance structure. there was the big impact of one individual for a long time. he says that will not be the case going forward when it comes to the alliance. he ended the conference before taking q&a, saying there was a concentration the of power for so many years in one person. the question now becomes in the alliance between mitsubishi, renault, and nissan, who can manage those companies and move it forward? . -- we know carlos ghosn has been arrested. they will vote thursday to remove him. carlos ghosn was brought into custody for serious misconduct. no detail on what those assets may be or what personal use may be. we will keep you up-to-date of any new headlines as they cross.
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the ceo saying he confirms there were two masterminds, but cannot comment on that. fascinating press conference unfolding and a fascinating drag down from carlos groans -- from carlos ghosn's height of popularity. you have futures in the u.s. rolling over once this headline broke. it shows how a market can be spooky and jumpy when he will not have a lot of republic -- liquidity trading. european stocks up. italian equities outperforming. you had conciliatory language coming from the premier -- the deputy premier in italy, saying the government is ready to cut wasteful spending. in other asset classes, there has been a touch of a stronger dollar. i say touch because it is not true when you look at sterling, you are now up by one cent to 1%. theresa may still trying to anyone who will listen and take
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a significant heat. ,he 200 -- the 2.10 spread goldman sachs said that one for the second half of the year. , aibank and morgan stanley lot of them dealing with a slowdown in u.s. growth and a weaker u.s. dollar. now let's get an update on what is making headlines outside of the business world. emma chandra with first word news. benjaminsident netanyahu made a last appeal to keep his government in power. he says the government is facing one of the most complex security challenges, and cannot afford to hold early elections. defensek israel's minister quit, bring the government to the brink of collapse. net yahoo! will keep the defense portfolio in his old hands. the european union is developing new rules. trumps of legislation may come out tomorrow. foreign threaten investments that could threaten national security, especially in
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energy, transport, and technology. president trump would not stop acting attorney general robert robertr from limiting mueller's investigation. the president told foxnews he would not get involved. before whitaker was appointed, he publicly criticized the probe into russian election meddling. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. alix: earnings season almost at its end. for most countries it is not the quarter that matters, but forward guidance. downgrading in the last weaker -- serious downgrading last week or so. joining me now is leigh drogan and lisa erickson of u.s. wealth management in minneapolis. igh, break it down for me. leigh: the issue is it feels
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like we are top of cycle, especially for the consumer. it cannot get any better than it can right now and i think that is scaring the markets. technology we have seen things get better. iphone,ffer the facebook has been hit, and feels like a cascade of news that will impact 2019 earnings. if you lose the one sector which is how this market up, which is retail, and the consumer is super strong right now. everyone looks forward. if we lose that one, it will be a huge issue. alix: what you do when performance starts to erode? lisa: we have a balanced view on the u.s. equity market. there is a set of pros and a set of cons that nicely balance off each other. in this kind of environment, we think the best advice we can
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give our investors is to stand pat on their existing allocations. if we think in terms of the earnings outlook, we have had nice learning days in 2018. do your point, we have started to see the 2019 estimates start to trend downward. you have a good near-term outlook but certainly balanced by the anticipation in 2019. on an economic front, we see a solid economy but potentially questions of where that will go. if we look at our proprietary dashboard of economic indicators , the majority still registers on a positive side, pointing to either an expansionary or recovery. with that being said, just in the last couple of weeks we've seen a downturn. to best advice to clients is stand pat on strategic allocations. alix: in earnings season, we knew it would be peak earnings, but it feels like it was a broad swath.
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what will still do well and can it still do well? technology is: still going to do decently well, it will just be hard for tech when you have issues like facebook and apple having issues. we still think retail will do well in 2019. the comps will get rough. investors to not want to invest in a high beta names. we had good comps this year and that is why retail has done well across the board, especially some of the stuff that is that issues with the trade war. when you take a look at stuff that will see an impact for the rising dollar, you do not hear too much about the rising dollar. you will hear about it next quarter. you hear it about rates somewhat this quarter, you would hear more next quarter. a bunch of things that are stacking up and that leads to investors investing -- we've seen health care do pretty well.
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it should continue to do well. consumer staples -- they will have problems with the dollar, and they will have issues. lisa, how you stay neutral? if you're going to stay neutral, what does that mean your outlook for the dollar is? we believe currency is hard to forecast. our approach to currency is look at the potential trends in more of a tail risk fashion. that being said, if you look at the underlying fundamental factors driving the dollar, you thatve two key forces would look like they would tend to push the dollar upward. that is a rising rate environment in the u.s., particularly relative to the rest of the globe. even though our economic dashboard is slowing, we certainly are stronger on a growth mode relative to the rest of the globe.
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those kinds of things would push the dollar upwards, which could put a little bit of a cramped in corporate earnings. that is some of the trepidation you are seeing with the volatility. the potential impact of the dollar on the u.s. company earnings. alix: talking about the dollar means margins. which sectors have pricing power? leigh: we still think health care has pricing power. we do not think any significant legislation is going to come down the pike in the next two years of this specific administration. we have seen what has happened to certain promises associated with drug pricing. they should still be good. tech is going to have good pricing power. the real variable is a much you have to pay for workers. while there is a huge war for we do not see massive inflation. they have been able to keep down
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the headcount. you see stuff like facebook having dad people to deal with news. across the board, we see them insulated from that issue. margins will still be good there. other than that, we do not see the margin question being the biggest thing here. play., it could come into it is going to be more at a does the consumer start to pull back ?rom these kind of luxury goods canada goose blew their numbers out of the water last week. that is not your louis vuitton customer. that is customers coming up in scale. if they are coming up in scale -- to a 1000 -- to be i buy a thousand dollar winter jacket they do not need, they are buying it more for the fashion. that tells us we are at a very specific point in the cycle. we are getting worried about
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consumers being leveraged. there are obviously all sorts of student debt out there. those numbers are starting to tick up. --r bloomberg analysts seem she is on our podcast telling us that is becoming an issue for her -- i think she is correct. alix: leigh drogan, always good to see you. please ericsson, always good to see you as well. coming up, digital currencies. we will speak with the cornell professor on the evolution of sim tech and what that means for central bank. nissan ceo still speaking. he is in the middle of a q&a. he called greg kelly and carlos ghosn's the masterminds of misconduct and this has been going on for a long time. he takes the gloves off and there is no hiding about how he feels about carlos ghosn's, who we can confirm has been
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emma: this is bloomberg daybreak. i am emma chandra in the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. coming up on balance of power, john delaney of maryland. this is bloomberg. alix: we give breaking news on ge. a management reshuffle. the gas power unit gets a new ceo and chairman. john rice will become the chairman. we also have scott stressant will become the ceo of the gas power unit. basically, a reorganization.
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has the the question of power unit bottomed is a question for ge. it is the third biggest contributor to a revenue for ge that has been under immense pressure. ge looking at the worst month since 2009. they are trying to stem that tied. any kind of clarity on measurement will help. that sought -- that stock out by .6%. time for our regular monday feature on the future of money, where we take a different look at how aspects of the digital world will affect money. today our focus is on how digital currencies could change central banking. the imf director said central banks should look into issuing digital currency, saying there may be a role for the state to supply money. satisfy public policy goals such as financial inclusion and consumer protection and privacy in payments. joining us from washington is a
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cornell university professor and brookings institute senior fellow. always a pleasure. give me the pros for central banking getting into cryptocurrency of some kind. >> on one level it is great central banks remain in the game. if you look at banks like sweden , the use of cash is disappearing. central banks may have little to roll to play. this will keep central banks in the business of creating money, although most moneys in modern economies is created by commercial rather than central banks. having a central bank currency would -- the legal activity. have a lot more activities into the tax net work and also make monetary policy easier to implement. if we all had deposit accounts with the federal reserve, this would be one way of having
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electronic money. the fed would be able to impose negative nominal interest rates. there is a lot to be said for having a central bank digital currency. there are negatives as well. alix: let's get to the negatives. some of them are obvious. outline some of the risks. eswar: one of the issues is i can no longer buy you a cup of coffee without a private agent of the government knowing about it. this is a question about whether we should have some privacy in our financial dealings without the government, without private parties being able to see them. there is also the potential for instability if you do have central banks issuing currencies. it could take commercial banks out of the game in terms of payments and commercial banks are still important in terms of modern financial systems. it could create areas of instability and we still do not know how it could work if we have digital currency.
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in terms of the transmission and implementation of monetary policy. it is easy to think about how to do work more efficiently. potential bottlenecks could be created. then there is the risk of hacking. we have seen even very secure systems be vulnerable to hacking . the same could be true of central-bank digital currency. worldwhat area of the might we see this first explosion of central banks using this in some kind of capacity? eswar: the big advanced economies central banks of the eurozone, the bank of japan, the fed, all seem to be taking a step back approach to this. small advanced economies such as sweden, singapore, and many emerging-market economies, including china but also india, are taking a serious look at this. small advanced economies because the central banks are a main
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part of the game and want to make sure their he have control over the financial system. in the emerging-market economies, there are big advantages because of financial systems. financial inclusion is an important criterion and digital currencies could work quite effectively. -- tothe issue with that those countries have the monetary policy and governmental support to handle the issues that might, with using a cryptocurrency? eswar: in a country like sweden, the answer is yes. sweden is far ahead of most other countries, and that is partly because the use of cash has almost ended. right now the share of currency bank notes and coins is down to about 2% to 3% and is fast vanishing. sweden can management. it is a legitimate question whether china has the technical infrastructure or the short of government institutions that are
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necessary to support a digital currency. behind. all of these countries are moving forward to see if -- alix: i'm glad you brought up china. the apec summit over the weekend that end intends words between president xi and vice president mike pence, what was your biggest take away. where does this lead us into the g20? eswar: there was clearly positioning ahead of the g20 where it was anticipated donald trump and xi jinping would have a meeting on the sidelines. it was clear the u.s. was hardening its position. the statements made by mike pence are essentially channeling the hawks in the trump administration, who do not want to give an inch to china. at the same time, china is getting concerned about being cornered by the u.s..
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there was the notion the u.s. should bring other countries to its side, other trading partners with china who share similar concerns with china's economic and trading practice. strident and -- less chinese reaction to what might've been innocuous statements with the final communique might be indications they are getting nervous that the u.s. is getting other countries onto its side. it is clearly a hardening of positions on both sides. alix: always good to catch up with you. here is what i am watching. that is nissan. the company ousting its ceo after arrests for misconduct. the press conference has been going on for 50 minutes. he is angry. the nissan ceo is angry. that is the big takeaway. walk me through what we have learned. ghosn under the
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bus. he is very angry. walk me through what you learned. it is unusual to see a japanese executive being this open and honest. he is talking about being angry, about being concerned with bewilderment and shock among employees and business partners and that being a top priority, addressing that and trying to limit the impact of the day-to-day operations. certainly, this is unusual to see, especially in japanese corporate culture, to see an executive hyman other executive out to dry and be so direct and this.g like alix: president macron spoke a while about this, what did he say? >> he declined to delve into specifics, but he said the french government would remain vigilant about the future of renault and nissan. the government is renault's
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biggest shareholder. there is a tense history between carlos ghosn and president micron. there will definitely be more comments. alix: the big question is what is going to happen to the alliance, particularly nissan and renault's relationship. promising power would not be concentrated in one person and they would have purely independent directors appointed to nissan's board. do you feel better about the alliance? how do you feel? craig: i think this is something that is going to play out over months. for the companies to lay out a case for how they can get through this. we have seen signs of tensions wheren ghosn in the past there was a push back on the reports or the idea that renault
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or nissan would do a complete merger. he was opposed to that. you saw signs of tension between these two, but there were not harsh words for one another. this is an escalation of that tension we saw simmering before. how these companies are able to continue is -- they have no choice right now. , theyave a joint project have a lot of work they do together on various products. it is unusual to see a renault or nissan car that does not have some sort of sharing with one another. twoe is no way for these john thain untangle themselves from one another immediately. there is definitely going to be a question of how you manage this beast going forward. these are two big companies that are very a mashed with one another. alix: 100%.
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the -- also he is throwing greg caliendo the bus, saying the only -- great kelly under -- also throwing greg kelly under the bus, saying the only person he was working for was carlos ghosn's. renault -- nissan was the goal before, where does that leave renault? the first question is will ghosn resign as the ceo of renault? the company was kept in the dark about the investigation. the big question is this. the next question is who will lead the alliance? ghosn is the first architect. he turned around nissan and renault. he was the ceo of both companies and was backed by the japanese
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in the french governments. over the long run, they'll be the question of who can head this alliance beast. this is a question we do not know the answer. alix: you said renault had remained silent. carlos ghosn is in japan, arrested. regardless of what his title is, his ability to function will be crippled. from a culture point of view, is there anyone who can take the reins of renault in france that can also help the company along, particularly in a potential merger with nissan? ania: as it is today, we know that ghosn appointed a number two earlier this year. he is chief operating officer. he has most likely to take the helmet ghosn has to step down in france. we could take about another carlos, why not?
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i have no idea if he is interested. alix: thanks very much. it has been unreal five hours in this one-hour news conference. bloombergs ania news found and craig trudell. q&a.n ceo still taking he says the scandals will not affect sales. trying to have optimism percolating through after this terrible rest of carlos ghosn. that doesn't for bloomberg daybreak. bloomberg markets is coming up. jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪\ . .
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