is how spain reacted to word of a draft elon brexit as the e.u. heads to a summit -- draft deal on brexit is the you had's to a summit to pull it together. to a summitu. heads to pull it together. ready, set, shop. the traditional start to the u.s. holiday season with experts predicting a surge to spending. welcome. i'm david westin with caroline hyde. brexit is so important. >> it is all-consuming here. focus is on, the whether the parliament will vote through this deal. david: it does not sound optimistic. caroline: the pound is losing optimism, down on the day that it is up over the last couple --

but it is up over the last couple of days. david: time to get to the markets. caroline: futures not looking optimistic either, almost .4%. the energy area focusing on this. the stoxx 600, managing to cling onto gains, led higher by telecoms as they digest how they're going to be performing over black friday and cyber monday. crude is off. the pound losing steam. will theresa may be able to get her deal through parliament? david: it is all about brexit. we are joined by brooke sullivan of bloomberg of finian -- bloomberg opinion and vince cignarella. it is about your neck of the woods. why don't you lead it off? caroline: why don't we look at

brexit. i want to look at the volatility in the pound and how we have dropped off the highs. that aso much optimism deal had been signed off by leaders but some of that is trickling away. we are up .3%. what do you make of this? what do you make of the focus on the pound, the volatility in the pound? vince: i do think we will see a deal. the hitch is the prime minister of spain. he is the head of the centerleft. the center-right is making this a political issue. elections are coming up in the next week or -- week. he needs to make a strong showing to not give gibraltar away so it does not fall under the you umbrella up -- the e.u.

umbrella. the europeans have assured him they will make that so. he is pro-european. political,s is more trying to get his pound of flesh out of this. he and the europeans will come to terms and the agreement will go through. the volatility will remain with the pound because we have issues getting this through the house of commons. we are going to be headline risk and sterling is going to be the talk for quite some time. much: i am impressed how he knows about spanish internal politics. let us talk about markets, what businesses do in this climate. there are so many steps. brooke: in terms of the framework, it is positive for business. you do not have the frictionless free trade but you do have a

framework. there are lines about regulatory cooperation which was a key point. bloomberg had a great market about how people in the derivatives market feel confident they will have stability no matter what type of deal we get. was saying, ise that going to get approval in parliament? in terms of what the framework get this dealn across the finish line, this is a positive. be able to hold the government together. ? caroline: you have seen a number of departures. dominic rob left. we have to see whether theresa may can galvanize support from other parties behind this deal.

the public viewpoint and what people are telling us is that they are board. they want the deal over the lines. david: let us move to our second story which has to do with chinese trade with the united states. president xi is supposed to meet with president trump. we had both sides saying the other side wants a deal. there was a report that said the u.s. is putting pressure on allies not to deal with huawei. they responded, saying they were surprised. if behavior extends beyond its jurisdiction, such should not be encouraged. both sides are saying the other side once a deal. it sounds like the u.s. is putting pressure on them. goal if they meet at

this summit is to come up with some sort of deal that allows both sides to save face. question,f the huawei it is interesting to see the u.s. government put pressure on foreign allies. we have not had the best trade relations with our allies which is a criticism of donald trump's trade war with china. even though there is a halt with , those arethe e.u. still in place. there is the threat of auto tariffs. whether allies are going to back him is a question. caroline: it is also going to be a question whether this is a reply zone -- reprisal, we saw how it impacted chinese stocks. lower onhinese stocks thin volumes. what about the overall market reaction to trade done's --

trade tensions? vince: you can see the anxiety among traders about how or whether this will go through. futures lower today, equities happen trading lower all week. the best we can hope for is a template between the leaders which is likely to happen. there will be optimism that comes out of this meeting. believe chinana will put enough on the table that trump can sell this to his space, saying he has made progress. we are not going to get a deal. think that is to not going to happen until just before the 2020 elections. this is going to be a story until just before the next presidential election when the leaders will come forward and sign a deal. david: and then what?

what matters is shopping. black friday the beginning of that traditional holiday shopping. a live shot outside of macy's. millionexpecting 16400 people to shop the between today and cyber monday. there is a big increase in shopping. brooke: i pulled the numbers out this morning. i think the question for investors is, how does this translate into stock prices for retailers? we have seen those get crushed after fairly decent results. it was not enough. squeezeseeing a margin to get shoppers in and keep up their traffic. int is expensive to invest

and there are concerns, are we and is this the best christmas we are going to see? it will be interesting to see of that volume translates into positive sentiment. caroline: one of the key performers in the stoxx 600, all-important is consumer sentiment. we do get a read on that next week when looking at u.s. data. is this something that is going to be affecting the fed longer-term? vince: these are numbers that fit into the picture. the fed is data dependent and we continue to look at, here is the chart, here is the market turned toward neutral. they are calling for different things. the fed is looking at four rate hikes. the market is at two. that will be data dependent. depends how the economy does.

you have to keep in mind consumer credit. banks happen willing to step up in the credit space and give consumers the money to do the things they are doing. consumer credit numbers are booming. are we stealing with -- from next year? if that happens, we will see the fed go with slow. david: thank you to brooke sutherland and vince cignarella. you can find all the charts we using gtv . coming up, bracing for a brexit deal. we will look ahead to prime minister theresa may's meeting this weekend. chris watling joins us next. this is "bloomberg." ♪

>> this is bloomberg daybreak. startblack friday, they of the holiday shopping season and retailers are looking for a to be a blowout. the industry is enjoying the strongest environment in his 37 year career. both walmart and nordstrom said online sales are surging. the removal of the chairman of nissan is likely to lead to changes. nissan will try to create a more equitable partnership with renault. the french automaker has more influence in nissan than nissan does in renault. the cryptocurrency crash of 2018

is heading for its worst week yet. most of its peers are falling. the crypto index is down 25% this week, the worst five-day stretch since crypto mania peaked in january. that is your business flash. yesterday we learned at the brexit negotiators had reached an agreement, subject to sign up from individual member states. up today, we welcome our reporter from brussels. today, the bloom is off the rose. what happened? >> there has been this realization we have a document that has been agreed in principle. we had good language, the language around the backstop was softened. we do realize there are questions that have not been so. agreementent is an

but it is not binding. it is not just theresa may who does not have the numbers. we are seeing tensions in the european union. every single member state had agreed on what to do, they have rallied behind the negotiator for brexit. we are seeing countries like spain who are saying, we do not like this and we are not going to vote for it. everyone thought this was finished and we see there is a way to go. have heard a lot of criticism of theresa may that she could not bring her cabinet along. it appears spain said we are not agreed on gibraltar. did they get ahead of themselves? think that is the significance and brussels, there is the sense that nobody expected the language we got from spain who said they felt

the trade by brussels and they felt the final negotiation was not up to speed. new that to be successful, they had to stick together. we are seeing tensions emerge and we have spain that has made it clear it is not going to vote in favor. we should get more concessions. david: thank you so much. caroline: let us continue that conversation. chris watling is here. putting spain aside because not one country has a veto, your base case is we get a deal on sunday but it is whether it passes in the parliament. chris: that is the key. point, a made the

looks like the deal will be voted down by parliament and it seems hard to see how that will not be the case. what is interesting is what happens after that? known,ne of those unknown's. we will be going back to brexit to push things more in favor of getting the brexiteers on side. the key issue is the backstop. there are issues, the fisheries. the key issue is the backstop for maintaining sovereignty of the united kingdom. if they could get pushback, they might get it through. caroline: in that scenario, will we still see theresa may remaining prime minister? will we see a conservative led government? could we see a risk of disintegration? chris: there is a risk but we have seen that the appetite for

pushing a no-confidence vote on theresa may is not there. raised the letters they need to force that bow. it appears the fear of corbyn -- a trotskyite. wing andtum is a left that would be a huge danger. david: tell me about the risk. is it asymmetric or symmetric? what are the markets, what are the businesses planning for now? chris: you make a great point. that works well in the currency market and we saw it yesterday with a rally in sterling on the back of the deal shape leak out out ofsels -- leaked

brussels. the markets are short british equities across the globe. this is an old story. to surprisenews markets. there could be surprises there. i cannot see a. -- see it. caroline: you mentioned the pound volatility but you can see it on the contingent convertibles, seeing some optimism it and the fact that some sort of deal has got through, trading above 100. which industry is most vulnerable? is it banking? chris: i think the auto industry is vulnerable. the financial sector is.

it looks like this deal is going to hell. the -- is going to help them. it is that seamless supply chain story that matters the most in terms of the u.k. economy. caroline: all eyes on backstops, the supply chains and how we go through sunday. chris watling sticking with us. david: we have breaking news out of porsche. they are going to trim sales to finance electric vehicles. they anticipate boosting operating profit by 6 billion. wagon it has announced they are going to move into electronic vehicles and they're going to find it by becoming more self-sufficient. coming up, ready to talk trade. we look ahead to president trump and president xi's meeting in

argentina next week. this is "bloomberg." ♪

david: president trump and president xi are scheduled to meet next week in argentina and talk about trade, with both sides saying the other wants a deal. the question is whether they can make progress and what it may mean for the economy. still with us is chris watling of longview economics. we talked about brexit. i am not sure whether it is easier to project what is going to happen with trade. what are in investors -- what are investors anticipating? chris: everyone is excited about that mood music. that is interesting and the context of where equity markets are. they are deeply beaten up and pessimistic. for negativeed in

news flow. even if you get something that is a little good news, that will help markets. that is the mood music and that is where investors are and they will jump on markets that are -- if they get news that is acceptable. going toonvinced it is happen. sayingthere is a report the united states is putting pressure on allies to stop doing business with huawei. came out with a statement saying they are surprised by the behavior of the united states. what do you make of that? this sounds threatening if the united states is going to extend its reach to things like allies? chris: that is closer to the real story. the trade story is half the picture. the real story is pushing back

on china's infringement on other people's sovereignty and pushing back on what the u.s. regards as an unfair playing field that china has been operating. speech whereence's it broke a few weeks ago. larkets are calling it cauldwel version two. , youu read the tea leaves would have got the same sort of message. this is more than just tariffs. this is an economic war. that is why i say, i'm not convinced it is going to be the end of the story. only --: is check the thorn? the only pain. tech feels the

china had been starting to outperform as the markets fell. i think this text story is pinching china at a time when the economy is under pressure. still of course, the concern. chris watling sticking with us. million discussing 164 americans planning to shop the sales this weekend. the black friday update, next. this is "bloomberg." ♪

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we see concerns between the u.s. and china. as trump asking its allies to block use of huawei? up 2.5% as you saw a fall in chinese trading. ericsson getting a push higher on the back of that news. we are currently seen the energy sector under pressure because of oil, up 1.5% in europe. let's look at how your desk oil has been -- oil has been performing because it is on track for a seventh week of losses. yeny moving into havens, the only currency against the king dollar. for pmi data out of europe. the pound at 4/10 of 1%, is there any deal that could go through u.k. parliament? david: we want to get an update on what is making headlights

does headlines outside of business. sebastian: the senate bipartisan investigation could stretch well into the first half of next year, according to the intelligence committee chairman. pushing back against democrats who want public hearings with key figures such as donald trump, jr. james comey says he is eager to answer questions but not behind closed doors. he has been subpoenaed to testify next month. he wants open hearings because he has seen enough of the " selective leaking and distortion." trump says he signed in order to close the border with mexico and authorized troops to use lethal force against migrants. reporters were told there are at least 500 criminals among those

waiting to enter, although he did not offer proof. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm sebastian salek. this is bloomberg. we have some breaking news right now, united technologies is trying to buy rockwell and have been waiting for chinese approval. they have chinese approval for the deal which was announced over a year ago. rockwell is up almost 10%, united technologies up 3.5%. rockwell is a leader in avionics. unthawingunsigned -- of relationship between chinese and american business. today is of course black friday, the traditional start to the traditional holiday season. we welcome our colleague emma macy's onporting from

herald square. it is frigid. emma: it is absolutely freezing, david. it is a little bit quieter outside macy's right now, but we are told it was very busy yesterday. this store opened at 5:00 p.m. yesterday. it was busy through the evening and they are expecting it to pick up in terms of traffic in-store through this morning. talking about the cold weather, it can be a double-edged sword for retailers. they look to make sales gains from people buying apparel, winter weather, sweaters, jumpers in british english, and warm winter coats. it could mean that people stay at home so a number of retailers have been making the big investment in mobile commerce. david: exactly the question -- how much of what we are looking

at should be bricks and mortar and how much should be online? online has been gaining substantially. emma: online shopping has been gaining substantially over bricks and mortar, although in-store sales are still the best majority of sales, not only in the holiday shopping season but throughout the year. a lot of department stores and retailers are making big investments as their people look more ononline or become the channel retailers so people can shop in-store and online. we have seen some retailers offer in-store deals as a way to get people through the doors, but certainly online is something that has been growing. initial figures at of adobe analytics, they have seen $1.75 billion in online spending, an increase of 29% from a year ago. looking at 80 of the top 100

retailers when they come up with those figures. back to youll come throughout the program, so please get someplace warm until we talk to you again. emma: i will try to. david: at 9:30, emma will sit down with an interview with jeff to net, macy's ceo. 10 billion pounds to be spent in the u.k. and it will be a blowout for the u.s. that buoy a strong economy? 164 million americans are set to shop this weekend and today alone, expected to produce $24 billion in sale. still with us is chris watling. your perspective on the u.s. side when it comes to spending? strong as it could continue to be? do you think the u.s. consumer is confident? chris: confidence is high and a

very strong black friday. in market terms and indeed in the economy, that is not what is so interesting. on black friday is strong as a rule of thumb, and retailers know this. about as you get into next year is what i call positive or negative christmas surprise. if it is better than what people expect, the orders have to go back in at the beginning of next year. if it is worse, the economy feels it into the new year. that would reinforce what i think is a slowing outlook for the u.s. economy at the moment. i am not suggesting for a second it is going into a recession, so the housing market is slowing. i think the consumer is peaking in its growth rate. this season will be good, but next year, how much inventory

retailers have left will be key. caroline: this is something about earnings season we have been flagging. they want to know about future forecast and profit margins particularly for retailers came in below estimates. that hit the shareholder. where do you think the retailer -- retail in the u.s. does? are we starting to understand how poor it could get into q1? chris: in terms of the retail sector, what happens with the fed in terms of interest rate. the retail sector is a play on fed expectations and when the fed changes its view, retailers can benefit or suffer. i think the fed will raise in december and then extend a pause because the u.s. market is slowing, financial conditions have tightened. once we get to the new year, it will be good for retailers.

in terms of share prices. all eyes on the fed in terms of what the retail sector does. david: we have a chart that illustrates what you are talking about. the white line shows the steady increases in fed interest rates. the blue line's financial conditions and as it goes down, it is tightening. yellow is the global. how concerned should we be about those tightening financial conditions? chris: they are a real issue. if you happen to put on the chinese version of that, you would see that china is the biggest area where it has been tightening. the chinese economy is under enormous pressure. it is one of the key component parts of how the fed thinks about monetary policy, is what financial conditions are up to. look at high-yield corporate bond spreads. they have widened dramatically.

that is part of the reason the fed can go on extending after a december hike, the other force being that housing is slowing and suffering because of the higher bond yields over the last 12 months. the old sale -- saying, warehousing goes the u.s. economy. david: we have heard some rumblings about a pause. what would trigger that? the fed tends to pride itself on the fact that it does not look focusing onts but the fundamental underlying economy. chris: i think triggers will be things like slowing in the data. we are just about seeing it at the margin and parts of it, housing. the fed vice chair clarida throughout last week, they are pretty close to neutral and fairly optimistic on inflation. the oil price helps in that and is one of the key component

parts. it is off dramatically in the last three months. it is all of those ideas wrapped together, and financial conditions is a part of that. the data is slowing and the fact that they are newly -- nearly at .eutral, it is worth a pause if you remember jerome powell's speech at jackson hole, he was clear about the ambiguity and uncertainty. 1990'seenspan did in the when he held off for raising rates when others were pushing for him to kick off. caroline: in terms of inflation, i am looking at oil trading since october 27, wti. what are you making of oil not finding a bottom? chris: there has been a couple of tweaks on the supply side of the oil fundamental equation, and it is an incredibly crowded long coming into the selloff.

a lot of this is a big washout and there was consensus that oil had to go to 100 because of iranian sanctions. we sell quickly that story just see how quickly that story has changed -- see how quickly that story has changed. is,surprised how weak it but not surprised it has been weak. has madeesident trump no secret of the fact that he likes low oil prices and at the same time loves a high and growing stock market. can he have both? chris: it is not implausible, but to be honest, that has not been the trade of the last 12 months. it is hard at this juncture. i would've thought next year we would see rallying oil prices and if we get a pause, a rallying stock market as well. i think he will struggle to have those in 2019, but it certainly happens at times. i do not think we are set up for

it. david: chris watling, longview economics, always great to have you. chris: lovely to see you. thed: a new report says former blackrock ceo was involved -- the ndb scandal. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ sebastian: this is bloomberg daybreak. you are looking at the hewlett-packard and price -- enterprise greenroom. coming up, matt shea.

this is bloomberg daybreak and this is your bloomberg business flash. dolce & gabbana has said sorry to china, but the aftermath of the scandal is potentially costly. alibaba hassuch as suspended the sale of dolce & gabbana. -- apple isowed going to the u.s. supreme court next week over accusations it uses its market docket -- dominance to jack up prices for apps. the supreme court has already ruled that only direct purchases of a product can collect damages for overpricing. oil is heading for its seventh weekly loss. saudi arabia is signaling its output may have reached a record. has caused grave concerns about a supply glut. caroline: thank you.

wheren now to wall street recovered three things wall street is buzzing about. blankfein takes a meeting. what -- met with one of the financiers involved in the 1mdb scandal, but it was not a one-on-one. a female broker sued for sexual discrimination after a performance review was left on her desk. and deutsche bank, a bad fit with citi. they say a deutsche bank merger is not right. david: let's talk about 1mdb. it is quite a story. lloyd blankfein did meet with joe low who was right in the center of this. brook: there is some conflicting reports as to whether this was one-on-one or whether someone else was present. goldman says a representative

from the average of a fund was also present. that person has also been indicated in the 1mdb scandal. the main question is -- goldman has pitched this as the work of rogue executives, but clearly it worked its way to the top. , whateads to questions of does this say about the culture of goldman and the rigor of their compliance controls that this was allowed to take lace? the internal compliance department raised questions and they were not willing to take him on as a client from goldman's private banking division. you have to wonder how this meeting was allowed to happen as those concerns were raised. caroline: we see the impact on goldman sachs'share price near year lows. this is a key concern for the overall valuation? could there be anything further

the market is worried about? brook: they have said there is the risk of potentially massive fines, but it is also more of a reputational concern if they are implicated in something like this, given the accusations of looting from a government fund and goldman's role in taking significantly higher fees than would normally be in a government bond fund deal, that raises red flags. caroline: certainly does. i am looking closer to home in london. bnp paribas is suffering a lawsuit from one female in the prime brokerage unit, saying she has been exposed to sexual discrimination. she reports about her overall review, annual review being left out for others to read and digest. this is more and more something banks have to focus on, how they are treating their female workforce, and the headline risks. brook: as we see more and more

of these cases come forward, feel come more in power -- more in power to speak up this woman says one source of harassment and victimization for her was leaving this performance review on the desk. the bank says that was an oversight and that was not meant to intimidate her, it was an accident. we have to see how this plays out and if this is an instance of a female employee being discriminated against, or if as the bank says, she was have -- unhappy with her pay and trying to push a resolution. david: we always do that to everybody, or we always do that to you. in annual review is a pretty big thing. brook: that is an extreme oversight. david: our third story has to do with michael corporate --

michael corbett, the head of citi being asked if it would be good to put to bank together -- deutsche bank together with vciti. this is one more instance of people speculating that deutsche should team up with someone. brook: it might not be such a good thing going the other way around. the german government said they are interested in creating a national champion, deutsche bank combining with commerzbank. lows now, deutsche bank's are not having a significant impact on the german economy because they have other sources of financial capital, but if you have an economic slowdown, though sources might dry up. you want to have a strong national entity to cater to german -- germany's economy. the e.u. has been working on the

banking union for quite some time. caroline: you talk about a slowdown, and there is evidence of that today. we have seen a negative rating on german gdp and woeful emi's. -- pmi's. bank,zbank and deutsche is m&a the only way forward? brook: the bank said they are not interested in having a conversation about m&a until they can stabilize and increase their profit. you do not necessarily want to be talking about a deal when your stock prices are as low as deutsche bank's is. it would most likely be a stock deal. you are talking about a meaningful amount of dilution. you have to see some sort of restoration at deutsche bank before this gets put on the table, or you see them flip further towards desperation and this could be an inevitable conclusion. david: thank you so much to brooke sullivan. caroline: breaking news,

all-important brexit. he is the summit in the e.u. over the weekend. we will hear from theresa may, taking a phone and on the bbc. she says the current deal is the right deal and once the country to come together. she threatens if it is voted down to parliament desk in parliament, they will be back to square one. she is also not saying whether she personally would move on. she refuses to say if she would quit if the brexit deal was rejected. she seems to be saying that david cameron will not be receiving a christmas card this year. -- will be receiving a christmas card this year. david: that is pretty generous. coming up, president trump is in a public spat with chief justice john roberts. more on what i am watching, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ david: this is what i am watching. there is a growing fight between the president of the united states and the chief justice of the supreme court, john roberts that started with a temporary restraining order from a district court judge on california, saying you cannot exclude people from applying for asylum. the president did not like that and called him and obama judge and obama judges are not worried about national security. chief justice roberts said there are no such thing as obama judges or bush judges or clinton judges. we have an extraordinary group of judges doing their level best for equal rights, and the president did not give up. again back and said, you do indeed have obama judges. we have had the president go after the media, go after

congress, various interest groups. we have not had this kind of conflict at the very top of our government. it is extraordinary. caroline: it comes on the back of brett kavanaugh moving to the supreme court and the shock of what it meant to be a fair and balanced upholding of the constitution seems to be from the outside looking in, getting more politicized. this is front and center between the chief justice and trump. david: politicizing the supreme court, not very happy in my judgment. caroline: a wonderful thing to be casting and ion. we will be talking more about the european economy with oppenheimer. ♪ [ phone rings ] what?!

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treacherous, that is how spain reacted to word of the deal drafted of brexit -- may the so bad it is good. ongoing fight over the italian budget as both sides taking their heels. .nd ready, set, shop u.s. consumers had to stores with the traditional start to the holiday shopping season, experts predicting a surge in spending. welcome to bloomberg daybreak this friday, november 23. , thosee is in london beautiful headquarters that i have not gotten to see. my wife has been there and i'm dying to see it. caroline: this is an award-winning building, absolutely stunning. the food selection isn't bad either. david: we hope it is protected against brexit. caroline: that is the key.

seems as though theresa may is taking a q&a session with none other than the worldwide audience on bbc radio, and you mentioned the gibraltar deal. she mentioned opposition on gibraltar's sovereignty has not changed. let's have a look at how the market is playing out. we are in a bit more of a cautious trading environment, lows on s&p 500 futures still up by .4% as we digest concerns between the u.s. and china. message is, with one voice saying they are ready to do a deal, and the u.s. looking like it is trying to stop allies .sing huwei telecom commitment i'm looking at the stoxx 600 in europe, retail and so many areas leading up higher. on the downside, i'm looking at crude up almost 3% today, seven

weeks of losses, the pound once again in the red on the back of concerns that even if we get a deal signed off by the eu and u.k. on sunday, will the parliament sign off as well? david: now the first word news. >> china says it hopes to meet the u.s. half way on trade issues when president xi jinping and president trump talk next week. that is set for the g20 summit in buenos aires. president trump says china wants to make the deal very badly after 200 billion dollar tariffs on chinese products. former fbi director james comey says he is eager to answer questions from house republicans, but not behind closed doors. he wants an open hearing, because he, quote, has seen enough of their selective leaking and distortion. hillary be asked about clinton and russian election interference.

it is black friday, the official start of the holiday shopping season. cornell,t ceo, brian is saying the industry is enjoying its strongest environment and its 37 year career. nordstrom online sales are already surging. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. caroline: sebastian, thank you. yesterday, we learned from the eu president that brexit negotiations have reached a tentative agreement, and theresa may is currently taking questions. she refused to say if she will quit if the brexit deal is rejected. let's go to maria trudeau, live in brussels for us. tell us, first of all, about some of the concerns between the eu and the u.k., the eu itself. some are wondering about the

gibraltar angle to all of this, something that try minister is taking questions on all of this. spain seems to be pretty antagonized by it. >> right, and it is very unusual at this point. you know this well, that the eu has managed to stay together. they know that it is better to speak as one voice, and have always said this negotiation is 27 versus one. at this point, i don't think anyone expected this kind of language from spain. today, and a member state veto the deal? it doesn't really work like that. no single country can block this. sunday, the european union is supposed to put out a joint statement saying that the eu endorses this. -- the euth spain won't really dare to put out something if a member state is not happy, but if they are not

able to really bring it together on the final day and show up with common ground to the eu 27. view that theht eu legislators have railroaded this somewhat and not really brought along all of the 27 other countries, notably angela merkel of germany saying she will not attend unless something is signed. and what prime minister theresa may has been saying, there is no deal done if the parliament, she's looking at the next step homeward. by thedeal is not passed u.k. parliament, we are going back to square one. there's no way the eu will come cap in hand with a better option. what are you getting from brussels, will the eu be able to negotiate a little bit if it were not accepted by the u.k. parliament? today, is a big question and as you know, theresa may will be meeting -- of the

european commission tomorrow. many member states are wondering what she's doing here. from the union perspective, they feel both the withdrawal agreement and future relationship have transformed. in countries like germany, they they don't sunday, want this to turn into a long negotiation until 4:00 or 5:00 in the morning. countries that are really concerned about open negotiations saturday, this isn't going to get done sunday because everyone else will want to jump in. so many questions, it's going to be a fascinating weekend. david: to answer some of those questions, we welcome the oppenheimer chief investment strategist. of questions, as caroline:. what do you make of what is going on? is there noise or some signal? >> i think there is signal, and

the signal is there is trouble in parliament and spain, probably the spanish hurdle likely to be easier to get over because it is necessary that they make some noise to protest anything where they could lose further ground with the big rock , so to speak. but what we've got to think here is the real issue is parliament. they won'tes that stand in the way of a deal that will be easier for the u.k. to digest. david: at this point, is it essential to bet against theresa may? there has been a lot of commentary on how she's handled she's keptin fact, it going and at a lot of times it could have fallen off the table. >> she has not only given the best effort, but it has been brilliant with the dysfunctional situation she's been dealing with. the big problem with the that they to me, is

have been absolutely dedicated to the idea they have to take everything to the trenches. loins momentng the every time you turn around. the quicker they can come to an agreement, they know they will go to brexit, ultimately, coming up with a situation that is less damaging to the u.k.. to me, the ultimate thing here is for europe, this is not anything as bad as the u.k., a singular nation versus the emu. is the underlining trend pretty good. both the continent and the british isles have been doing business since before the normans and the saxons, so it is unlikely the world ends with trouble here. plenty of dislocations of the british pound under pressure, rates of inflation and imported get the potential for

having the opportunity to suddenly, the u.k. experts get cheap. destination,isty i'm heading back as soon as i can. caroline: you mentioned the pound, they have been under pressure, yes, falling another .3% today. what i'm looking at other asset bank bonds and contingent convertibles, finally getting their head above water tracking par price point once again. where is the eye of the storm when it comes to assets that if webe under pressure don't get a deal done by the weekend and it is not passed off by u.k. parliament? think most of the pressure will come into the equity markets on the currency itself, more than anything else. when it comes to the commodity complex, it is a global picture. i would primarily look at the issue of pressure on the u.k.

markets, questions as to further ofblems for housing, aspects what is the bank of england going to do. know, in a sense, the problems that surfaced will have to be dealt with pretty quickly. we may get through this better than we expect. caroline: there's always that hope. we are turning our attention to another key concern in europe, italy,'s warning to officials flagging potential damage from the budget fight. ♪ rom the budget fight. ♪

>> this is bloomberg daybreak. let's get your business flash. -- likely to lead to changes in the world's largest auto alliance. three days without -- allegations of financial misconduct. bloomberg has learned they will try to create a more equitable partnership with rerenault. porsche plans to boost operating profits by streaming operations. bloomberg has learned that the german luxury automaker will be spending more to develop and manufacture -- businesses such as digital offerings.

for itsis headed seventh weekly loss. features were down more than 3% in new york. itsi arabia is signaling output might have reached a record. and concerns about a supply glut. oil?: how about that when i came into the office, people were saying, could possibly go below 353? caroline: we are at the lowest we've seen wti trading since october 20 17, 7 straight weeks of losses. we have to go all the way back to of5 to see this as a concern, all surrounding the fact that saudi arabia is still pumping at -- david: not to speak of the shale producers, trying to outdo saudi arabia, and concern about the growth. and this oil summit in

vn will be looking at how opec deals with it. did they decide to support price points or did they realize they would lose market share? david: it is affecting markets all around. another drama is playing out, how we can clearly think of italy here in europe. budget fight in the european union is raging on, and the ecb is warning the country about its spending. their chief economist said in an interview that italy's current financing conditions are much too tight for a country with weak growth and low inflation. still with us is john stoltzfus of oppenheimer. your take on italy. it looks like it is going to be a five, that the process takes so long to find them. we are actually seeing surprising support coming from the bond market in terms of where the yield is at. brooke: -- john: it is remarkable what we've seen with the treatment of

, ony, both in terms of certain days in terms of equities and the bond market, but what we have to think here shove, push comes to what might very well happen is, do you remember years ago, with greece, when the greek people told cyprus to tell the ecb where to go, essentially, but then they sort of whispered, be sure we get to keep the singular currency, the euro and that we get to stay in the emu. ultimately, that comes down to this. but this is one of those things that, the problem with populism is that it is a protest against an uneven sharing of the economic rebound, globally, that has occurred since the crisis, and its focus appears to be wrong in what to do with fiscal policy.

it has always been a problem with the emu, and the northern countries tend to be much stricter and the southern countries tend to be more loose. caroline: i'm looking at the ramification it has on the equity market, we have not seen italian equities -- on record at the moment, but do we see the therefore, force the hand of italy to renegotiate on their deficit? does the eu have any clout? john: the market can certainly be a disciplinary force in terms .f cost to borrow and of course the stock market has a very visual way of right away showing it on a day-to-day basis, but the whole thing is thinke can't help but that ultimately, when we look back over the last 20-25 years, what has been clear is that things have changed in some ways

. this is a reversion that has occurred, and outsiders looking in. we can't help but think that ultimately, the constituencies are likely to help us -- likely to say, let us keep the euro and keep us in emu, negotiating. but everybody likes to do, as we know, with the great dealmaker in our country, everything taken to the limit, one more time before we come to an agreement. david: this is about the underlying economy, i will put a chart up that shows pmi numbers. germany looks disappointing there. the white number is pmi in the united states, yellow is china, bumping along. the blue line, falling off a cliff, is europe. is it italy, is it brexit? what is driving that for italy? john: i would have to say the

blue line plunging like that would be a lot of sentiment. we always look at the personalities of the fed chair, the personalities of foreign central bank markets, and we would have to consider, when we look at that line, europe is placing all of this pretty hard. when you have italy, brexit, the , spain.a situation then you have the troubles with incorporate, that is a lot of stuff. then you have the u.s. and china, and one of the implications for global trade with italy and its own set of pauseationals, there is a in this. i've been in the business the last 35 years, 10 years in this globalized mechanism we have today, considering the fact that we just have pauses like this.

we are going to a cliff, but coming close to it. caroline: let's get your in the oil market right now. i'm looking at volumes at 155% of 30 day averages today, wti falling another six percentage points of session lows. does this mean long-term good or bad? john: we've been underweight in energy since the start of the year. we were surprised to see the price of oil go up, but we weren't surprised to see the underperformance of the oil sector, particularly in the u.s. this year. in termseat dispersion of performance within the sector and some industries. but what we have to say here is this is what we've been expecting for a while, producers really trying to get paid for all the investments they've made , starting to produce more, the opportunity came about when suddenly, in opec, you had a breather where you can pump more

because the iranian oil is being taken off the market, and it all happened at the same time when the world started to worry about slowing. but that is not uncommon in the fourth quarter. oh,cally over these years, looks like next year could be cost and we have a weak first-quarter. the everybody is worried fed would raise rates. we kind of model along -- mu ddle along. david: jon is staying with us. defense., apple's app going to the supreme court over iphone app fees. ♪ ♪

david: it is time for the bottom line, where we look at three companies worth watching. for me, it is nissan-renault. when he stepped down as chairman, there was concern over whether that deal would continue. renault wants more of a say. caroline: such an impact in terms of the market. i'm looking at apple and you are the man with legal expertise. i'm looking at the supreme court taking the arguments monday of an accusation that apple has too much dominance when it comes to apps. they take a 30% commission. looks like the legal argument is that it is more complex than you think, we are the middleman and we earn the 30% commission. they could rule that it is a simple transaction and you should not have such market power there. david: it is sort of an of skier legal doctrine but it may have a lot of ramifications.

for our third company story, huawei. we are joined by brooke sutherland, this story out of the wall street journal, the united states trying to pressure allies huawei not to buy things from huawei anymore. their concern is as we move into five g technology, this type of network may be more vulnerable to cyber security attacks. their concernthe telecom equipe somewhat separate from the data that goes through a different type of system, but 5g will bring some of those data functionality to the equipment to equipment that huawei makes. they are putting pressure on germany, italy, and japan who have u.s. military bases and they worry about the traffic that could go through it. goes sensitive information on specific satellites, but a lot of this data goes through the networks that you and i use. caroline: it's fascinating that they are leaning on, you

mentioned germany and japan. the u.s. does not have exactly the best relationship with them. brooke: it will be interesting to see how these other countries respond. we do not have the best trade relationship with some of these fact thats, given the we have slapped a number of different tariffs on them, steel and aluminum. sutherland,e bloomberg opinion columnist, thank you for being with us. we will give you a black friday update with matt shea. ♪

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provide strong support, relieve pressure and optimize airflow to keep you cool. hello bed of my dreams. order online. we'll build it, box it and ship it to your door for you to enjoy. sleep on it for up to 100 nights and love it, or you'll get a full refund. returns are free and easy. i love my leesa. today is going to be great. find out why so many people love the leesa mattress. then try it in your own home - or at any west elm store. order during our black friday mattress sale to get our $225 offer. that's $150 off the mattress, plus a free pillow - and free shipping too. go to buyleesa.com today. you need this bed. caroline: this is bloomberg daybreak, i'm caroline hyde. it is the day after thanksgiving, markets up 5% on the nasdaq. take getting hit, china getting

hit by 2.5%. wall street journal putting out a report that the u.s. might be leaning on other countries to stop taking equipment from huawei telecom. are seeing a downward trajectory for a key industry, energy up by 2.1% in europe, one of the key laggards today. what is happening across other off byet classes, wti almost 6%, money moving into the haven of the yen out of the euro , the pound is up by .4%. we are worried that the deal with the eu in the u k might not be getting through the u.k. parliament. we will speak more to what is happening in oil, driving sentiment today. we are looking at brent, which briefly fell below $60 per barrel. we have not seen that since back in 2017, on track for a seventh straight week of losses when it is wti or brent with session

lows. david: an update on what is making headlines outside of the business world. andstian: president trump xi jinping have signaled they are ready for trade talks at their meeting next week. they will speak at the g20 summit in buenos aires. president trump has said that they want to make a deal badly, and, quote, is happy about that. userging allies not to telecom equipment made by huawei . according to the wall street journal, italy, germany, and japan are among the countries the united states has talked to. the said it's bipartisan investigation into russian election meddling could strike well into the first half of next year according to richard burr. it is unlikely you will see much visible progress, pushing back want public

hearings against donald trump, jr.. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. david: thanks, sebastian. joining us from macy's flagship store is emma chandra. today is black friday. i can see a few more shoppers on the outside. it is still cold, emma. emma: it is still absolutely freezing, but we are starting to see a steady stream of shoppers heading into macy's and a number ofe them carrying full shopping bags, which i'm sure will please the likes of the macy's ceo, who we will be speaking to in the next hour. this store has been open since 5:00 p.m. yesterday and sales associates tell us it has been busy since then, through the evening. you mentioned how cold it is. double-edged sword

for retailers. it might mean people stay at home and shop online, and when you want people to come through the store, that's not necessarily a great thing. that it could also mean people are more willing to spend on high ticket items like winter apparel, winter coats and winter sweaters and things like that. so far, what seems to be looking analytics, is -- which said as of last night, one point seven $5 billion have been spent online so far this thanksgiving holiday shopping weekend. david: projections are pretty robust for this holiday shopping season. at the same time, retail stocks don't seem to have done as well. : a lot of people are saying these are the best predictions in recenty shopping memory. we certainly know the national retail federation is expecting 164 million people to shop this

weekend. 4.8%are expecting 4.3 and across the holiday shopping season. they also have third-quarter earnings of a lot of retailers over the past two weeks, concern , investmentsestors having to make online, cutting into margins. given the fact that we are seeing these robust forecasts for the holiday shopping season, there is a concern this might be the peak, that we may have reached the christmas and that things may actually be downhill for retailers into 2019. to get in and get warm because you have a big interview in the next hour. an interview with the macy's ceo. can't wait for that conversation. involving another one the retail landscape, heading into the holiday season.

the perspective from washington, matt shea. is it peak christmas, is it peaks spending? is 2019 going to be weaker questio? bullish on this holiday season. all of the ingredients are there for this to be exceptional relative to recent memory. there,rd emma shivering talking about how great this season is going to be. we think it will grow between 4.3% and 4.8%, coming on top of strong -- from last year. we are positive about the especially with what happens in 20, yet to be at thened, some are more macro level. at the moment, consumers are at a good place, the economy is in a great place, a lot of confidence and retailers are ready to make the most of this holiday season. when we arepecially

expecting one trillion over the holiday season area here in the u k, we are expecting plenty of money to be spent here over the course of the weekend alone, but has the discussion gone too long? we seem to have been having a black friday sales for the past .ew weeks there i >> it is something we export to other countries. i think retailers are in a good place with their inventories. certainly, promotions are beginning earlier. we measure from november 1 to december 31. i guess i would say that black friday, this holiday weekend, is an emotional kick off, it might be halftime, so to speak, in practical terms, because people have started earlier. but the emotional psyche of the whenmer is that this is things really begin in a

practical sense. i think many people have started their shopping. david: you projected some robust numbers into the holiday. i will put a chart up right now, retail sales and consumer it shows,, what essentially, is retail sales have been pretty strong despite the fact that there's been some softening in consumer confidence. how does that affect your projections into the holidays? isi think it reflects what happening in the economy here. consumer confidence is the highest it's been in 20 years, unemployment the lowest it's been since the 1960's. grow,onomy continues to retail outperforms in the economy. we see retailers hiring in record numbers, 600 50,000, up from about 585,000 last year. grow, retail outperforms inconsumers y will spend an average of 1000

dollars this holiday season, the highest it has ever been, up 4.4% from last year. i think the macro factors are setting up well, retailers have made investments going through the last three to five years. i spoke with the ceo of a major retail company a few weeks ago and said, how do you assign the relative weight, in terms of your performance, how much is due to macro economic conditions and how much is due to the investments you've made in the last five years? they said we've had that discussion a number of times, and -- due to investments that have taken time to be brought to bear, paying serious dividends for retailers now. we appreciate having you here, of all days on black friday. the retail federation president, coming to us from washington. of retail atake this point, telling us about where we are in the u.s. economy?

right,ink he said it people are feeling more confident about their jobs, they feel that perhaps wages aren't but -- at the next financial rate, but are increasing nonetheless. over the years, they've just begun to ramp up their shopping. we think that taking peak retail sales is like, a few years ago, people were saying we would have peak oil production and that didn't quite work out. ascan't help but think that the economy gets better, people are going to shop because they like to shop. we will have a scene going here where people are definitely getting the feeling that if they haven't been shopping and so long, so they want to show up theit, to celebrate improvement. there is concern as credit card interest rates are going up.

caroline: tell us a little bit what the retail outlook is. ,here has been worry specifically surrounding third-quarter earnings that gross profit margins are under pressure, discounts coming earlier and earlier. what does it mean for you in that sector in particular? what it shows is why the stocks haven't responded quite as much to the preview feeling from the retailers themselves, that thee is concern results may not be as robust as some are expecting here, but at this point, we would have to say progress, not perfection, is the best you can do. we've got this trade war with china, and overhang with everyone involved, especially if you import a lot of things from china, inputs that come from customers, orhave

rather retail customers always looking for the best deal, and it got smartphones, sometimes apple iphones that bounce back and forth, to see where they can get the best deal. with all of that, it is a competitive market. the economy reflate inc. versus inflating at a worrying rate, the last cycle only eight hikes so far. it will be nine hikes versus 17 in the last hike cycle, 17 times -- at a time. caroline: we thank you for the context and perspective from oppenheimer. david: coming up, the big match. tiger woods against bill nicholson. how the $9 million showdown is changing the sports media landscape. that is next. ♪

looking atyou are the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. in the next hour on bloomberg open, the macy's ceo. this is bloomberg daybreak and your bloomberg business flash. dolce & gabbana has said sorry to china in the response of --

suspended the sale of dolce & gabbana products in china. model strolling through italian food with chopsticks. accusations that -- uses its market dominance to jack up apps. for the supreme court has already ruled that only direct purchases of a product can -- taking on a chinese market that is of more use to knock offs. the maker of the luxury jackets is pushing ahead with its -- snow parkas directly to consumers overcoming the threat of counterfeits. david: today is the day, tiger woods faces off against phil mickelson on a golf course in las vegas, with millions of dollars, some of it in bets

between the two. we talked to them about the match earlier. >> it is part of what we do in the game of golf. just enough to make it uncomfortable or make you think about that one particular shot for the next shot. of then important part game because it teaches us how to perform best under pressure, and ultimately, tournaments, the head-to-head matchups. those type of elements really bring out the best in you and train you to play your best under the most pressure. thed: we welcome lee burke, -- ceo and our bloomberg tech columnist. lee, this is,th as far as i know, the first of its kind. there is no crowd involved. mic up the to

players and there's a lot of betting? >> it's a $9 billion -- $9 million winner take all pot. oddse, real-time gambling posted for those that can take advantage of them. it is essentially an experiment, being developed by warner media, put together by at&t, to develop an event and utilize it across all the areas of platform that warner media is comprised of, very much like comcast utilizes symphony events across the full range of nbc and universal platforms and properties. for those who haven't been on a golf course, it's typical for small amounts of money, various bets that you make throughout the 18 holes. if someone comes out ahead, you can make it interesting with a press bed on the back nine. nobody is ever out of

contention because there is always somebody to be watching, something to be playing for. even if one is ahead of the other, there's always other bets and competitions taking place. the issue is this is not the back nine of augusta on sunday, you aren't playing for the lead. inherent drama isn't there, but the money is the drama and the fact that they are head-to-head is the drama they are creating here. interesting, gulf has been losing viewership and loyalty, trying to make itself more relevant to a younger generation, we've seen this with another sport, cricket. is this going to work? >> it is certainly a good effort. at&t has not had a good year, and using its platform to try to attract more millennial viewership seems like an interesting move, seems like

assets, holistically, to do so. -- generates a bit of excitement and brings it closer to -- for is sort of a premier andnew warner media, at&t time warner. what do they need to do to have it work questio? >> do you mean specifically for this event? well, it's going to be a question of, can they get the viewership, will they be talking about it on their quarterly earnings, seeing a bump because of this event? if that is something talked about, it may be repeated. sense.efore making of similar to what is done in boxing, how will social media play out in all of this. boxing almost comes down, to a certain extent, how much you can

wrap up anticipation and excitement around social media because you need to keep it exclusive around those paid to watch. they are utilizing bleacher report live, they are the top platform for this. they've done a lot of backend marketing. we know that paper view is an -- view is an impulse buy. they are trying to maintain exclusivity on the event itself, they are trying to offer up supplemental programming and content across social media and hbo, bleacher report live, across turner. thanksgiving metaphor, using every part of the turkey and slicing and dicing it in a way that allows them to say they've taken full advantage of the synergies of creating warner media going forward. -- says itling

should be permitted. we now have permission, basically, for states to take gambling on sporting events. what effect will this have on the larger trend toward wagering on sports in the united states? eventis the first major incorporating real-time gambling at odds. ,here are no allusions to it straightforward and on screen during the event itself. of course during the next several years as sports gambling becomes legal in more states, you will find more sports properties in it, using it as programming content, because it ultimately enhances the value of the program itself. there's always interest in a game or event when there is money riding on it, and i think sports companies are realizing that and will utilize it more and more in the future are. caroline: how long will this

reap rewards? is $19,aper view fee and when you look in boxing, it is a hundred dollars. there's a lot of -- but at the getting a you are not usin returning revenue. does the intensity going into it reached the relevant or sufficient rewards coming out for it to be repeated? caroline: we will watch how at&t shares prices react to this. lee.is alex and talking,re going to be the seventh consecutive weekly loss. more of what i'm watching next. ♪

caroline: what am i watching? it's all about oil. we've been talking about it all morning, heading into its seventh consecutive weekly loss, wti currently up by 17 percentage points. the moving average, and look at the standard deviations. we haven't seen big moves like this that often. we've currently got to read standard deviation moves on crude, not often that you see one day extended price changes such as this. we always question have is, how much is supply and how much is demand questio? his back five, even though it is meant to be pulling supply out. we had the all-important the anna meeting with opec -- meetingt thvienna

with opec. seems like president trump pulled the rug out from under saudi arabia, with the iranian sanctions and a bunch of waivers. seems to be very pleased with the current move in the market and went as far as to thank saudi arabia a couple days ago. david: and he's taking credit with the american people. coming up on bloomberg markets: the open, jessica an jeff genne. caroline: i look forward to joining you back in new york at some point. david: have a great trip. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: the countdown for the open starts now.

looking ahead to next week's g20 summit, china says it is ready to meet the united states halfway. the economy cooling more than expected, messy politics painting a gloomy picture for the ecb and oil plunging, heading for its seventh straight weekly drop. saudi arabia signals outputs might hit a record. wti, future stocks down .75 percent, and the dollar is smashing the euro into the ground. it has been a messy couple of months for global markets, but traders are finding something to be thankful for. , volatility. >> volatility is back. >> i think they have to be -- wants to make america great again,t