>> stocks falling on a shortened trading days. i am romaine bostick. >> i am joe weisenthal. >> i am taylor riggs. are we having fun? joe: it is quiet and volatile. romaine: i thought we would have a quiet day. the three handle on the 10-year as we get lower and lower it really catches my eye.

joe: they are missing some interesting action. we have seen closing up close to the low of the day. even in the equity markets, not exactly optimistic. romaine: we will talk about more about that. the s&p 500 is physically ending not only today down, but the second straight week for we had a drop in the s&p 500. this is setting us up for the second straight monthly loss in the broader market. let's bring in vincent cignarella about what -- to talk about what happened today. not a lot of is effecting a kind of market movement but we got that. vincent: it is one of those things. you expect nothing and nothing happens, for you expect nothing and everything happens. this is an everything happens. crude is not having fun today. taylor: talk about the energy stocks.

cap what point for some of these companies not profitable? do you have to get below a $50 eti? doing it with any of these energy companies can be profitable at? it could be $49? vincent: $50 is the psychological level. it depends on the dynamics of a they are. profitability for bp at one point was $10 a barrel. it is considerably different now. it was a long time ago. look at more of the producers when you talk about profitability. shale producers are talking about $30 is still good for them. joe: guy johnson has been pointing out today that would makes this striking is the speed of the selloff. when you get such a fast move back and bust up a lot of risk management hedges people have in they plan to

sell below a certain level. do you see a connection between the type of selling we see in oil and what we saw in a lot of these momentum darlings that have been blown up since the beginning of october? almost sort of no buyer at all emerging. of --t: it has been a lot the currencies have winge traded. when you get the top, they buy. this set of market is more of a capitulation of the stoploss driven model for people keep trying to bottom fish this and he keeps going and going. well,capitulation of the stoplos a $54.5$55, and 0, people are in and out of the trade. romaine: we just showed that chart.

when we look across asset classes, are seeing a meaningful increase? vincent: you can see crude and the s&p 500, which is now in that territory, it is more than 10%, this has happened twice. it happened in january. it is happening again. when you talk about process it trades, what happens with hedge funds and portfolio managers, do have profitable trades and tracy goes south. you have to get out of a profitable trade to compensate your portfolio. easily what could happen in this space is you have a run on the crude market. to compensate for losses you have in the energy sector you have to sell the equity market the balance that out. equity markets have had a really good run. there are a lot of profits in the market. taylor: re: hearing anything about lower energy prices on the fed? the ing germany chief economist

said he expects the fed to move. re: hearing concerns about -- are we hearing concerns about deflationary effects? vincent: i don't think this is deflationary perse. -- per se. the fed takes energy and food out of the picture. the fed will watch with the real economy does. joe: what about in europe? ecb a little bit more singularly focused on inflation than the fed is. and the data is no looking back rate. i don't think anyone can look at european economic data and say this is an economy where ready to tap the brakes and overheat. how do you think mario draghi reads this? saying: we were just central banks like to take energy prices and food out of

the mix and talk about core. the ecb, they talk the same book. but it correlates to the price of wti very closely. whether mario draghi was to admit it, it does lower inflation in europe. this will definitely impact the ecb way more than the fed. european inflation will come down as the economy is coming down. this will definitely stop the ecb from normalizing rates in a time frame the market is looking for. romaine: when we talk about a stronger dollar again? vincent: i don't think it is going away. we are just looking at fluctuations in the market. the dollar is up again today. they crossed 1207 at some time today. overall still seeing a stronger dollar and the trend has not left us yet. taylor: we are still having fun with vincent. thank you. coming up, u.s. shoppers storm

the stores on a black friday friends a. it is cold out there but i'm still seeing a lineup the door. we speak with the ceo of macy's next. this is bloomberg. ♪ stillp the door. we spe

intor: shoppers pouring stores as a holiday giftgiving season officially kicks off. we spoke with the macy's ceo. he discussed traffic in the store and online. >> on my traffic has been terrific. online is great because you get to see how it is tracking by area. what are the great specials, the great values remaining? we opened yesterday at 5:00. it was a great crowd. heavier traffic the last year.

the start has been strong. a.m.s up until about 2:00 when we closed. taylor: bloomberg's emma chandra joins us now from macy's and herald square -- in herald square. what are macy's and other retailers saying about this black friday versus years previous? to see jeffgreat earlier this morning. they got off to a strong start. he said traffic was up. he mentioned big crowds when they opened at 5:00 p.m. yesterday. i was here at 6:00 a.m. this morning. it is now a lot busier. i was just in the store. the ground floor was packed as shoppers are getting accessories and handbags. wasne, jeff gennette talking about it doing well. a number of figures out today

from adobe analytics. saying $643 million has been spent online as of 10:00 a.m. this morning. sayingthat puts us on track fo4 billion to be spent online today. they skinning itself, $3.7 billion was spent online. of that, $1 billion was spent on mobile devices. joe: is there a demographic, for a sort of character of the type of people who show up and stand in line early on black friday? are they thrill seekers they really like the crowd, and the bigger the crowd and longer the line the more fun it is for them? mix of think you have a them. there must be some people who like standing in line. i am not necessarily one of them. a number of retailers have offered particular deals for coming into the stores as a way to boost food traffic -- foot

traffic. we have seen that as a way for retailers are getting people in the store. speaking to jeff gennette, he talked about macy's being an on the general retailer. -- an omni-channel retailer. online shopping is trending towards buying on mobile. we have seen a lot of people liking to throw -- thrill. they like to the a part of the festivities that happening. have reports from reporters for bloomberg across the country that some places reporting traffic is down. a quick update note. traffic is ok but it is online that is strong. reporting fromra a cold herald square. thank you very much for your service. we are joined by rick helfenbein

, president and ceo of the american apparel in footwear association. thank you for joining us. what are you seeing today? rick: a big growth in online. store traffic is better than it has been in a long time but is not comparing to the growth in online. this will be a banner holiday season. we took $6 billion, $7 billion for the weekend. 11/11, singles' day, that was a big deal. joe: it will be a banner in terms of sales, the companies have spent a lot of money to lure shoppers into the stores and on websites, and the concern is that will hurt margins. rick: there will be some margin

compression as we go forward because of the tariffs. everybody wants this week that under the carpet. it is really nice. president trump pardoned those turkeys and the retailers pardoned the consumer because we did not get hit with the tariffs as a limit to the holiday season. most of the goods were on the water. they were pre-ticketed. i encourage people buy two because next bring, -- next spring, watch out. taylor: we know about tariffs and i know i need to shop now because prices will go up in january. do we actually get a boost on black friday because of the average consumer being aware that prices will rise in january? rick: i think a percentage of consumers understand it. a lot of shopping is in the moment. if it looks good and it's priced right, you will buy it. we are in for an exciting season. this is about as good as it's going to get.

i'm concerned about next year and a little concerned about the exposure in china. is ae hopeful in argentina better song that don't cry for me. the is your concern on demand side? aboutu concerned retailers' ability to pass on the price? what is the specific concern? rick: that's an outstanding question. it is pretty simple. we are facing a 10% increase, not on everything but on select items. a could go to 25% on all products. most members of our organizations are public companies. the number one question for now, what is your china exposure? you come in with that number, people get concerned. i was in china a few weeks ago.

there is a little bit of flight out of china to protect their base. that causes inflation and prices to go up. sales go down, jobs get lost. romaine: i felt like there was a trend in the u.s. for more american-made apparel. that is a selling point. is that going to accelerate? rick: there is truth to that. the increase in made in america is enormous, that is based on 3%. 97% of everything you see coming in apparel is imported. footwear,arel, 72% of 84% of accessories is imported. therefore, you know, the cast is dyed. you can only move so much ahead of china and that is why prices will go up in the spring.

romaine: that is great insight from a very dapper rick helfenbein of the american apparel in footwear association. oil plunging. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: let's get a quick check of the latest is this headlines. united technologies i cleared the final hurdle to complete a deal with aerospace supplier rockwell collins. china signed up on the $23 billion deal. investors were concerned the trade is between the u.s. and china would halt approval. that figure -- a gives united technologies the scale to deal with boeing and airbus. force of -- by streaming operations. bloomberg has learned the german

luxury automaker will be spent more to manufacture electric cars. they will try to make more money from new business such as digital offerings. oil is heading for its seventh weekly loss. futures slipped below $60 for the first time in a year. saudi arabia is signaling its output may have reached a record. america's growing stockpiles raise concern about a supply glut. that is your business flash update. fromwe are joined by mike bloomberg intelligence. fun times. will this keep going? mike: we are very much oversold. we have to be careful using that word. we have had massive liquidations of futures positions. oil -- i haverude

it on my terminal. what you see in this chart that screens or indicates overabundance? mike: what you see is open interest in petroleum futures. that is not just crude oil. that is unleaded gas, diesel, everything. 1.6 million contracts. that's the most ever. i think it is a little extreme. what matters now is what does this mean? when you have crude oil plunging at the same time stock prices are going down, to price in is an oxymoron. taylor: walk us through this a little bit since you brought that up. thinks thenarella fed is on a wait and see for 2019. mike: what is the first bridge? tightening prices in december. back in the office table.

market down like this, crude oil down like this, it is rare. the last time we had similar velocity, it was easy. you have got to look at that one. it is the narrowest in over a year. crude oil plunging and the stock market plunging. they are all going the same way at the moment, they are all broken down. romaine: when we look at this flush, which seems dramatic, is part of that because so many people in the market had gone long on crude and it became such a crowded trade? mike: we had those indications back in may. it was way too extended and overdone. positions started turning. that is the key thing. now i think we are just flushing too far the other way which is setting a range and we are

carving up a bottom, although it is getting kind of extreme. joe: i think the fed does not hike in december, my guess is people would rush into stocks. do you think commodities like oil would react the same way? mike: let's look at the iterations. the fed is not go, good indicator of the dollar peaking. multi-decade high. metalsly it is good for and gold. taylor: we were talking hours ago about some of the other commodities that are being affected. gold, copper. mike: copperhead a significant correction and is coming back. positions got too extreme. people were a little too long and got maxed out.

gold is stuck in the narrowest range in five years. 52 weeks, 24 months. it needs a good indication not to and it needs a strong dollar, and that might not happen. or we need lower volatility. i see gold is a high risk potential to break out higher. etf's have been showing that. etf total holdings continue to increase. romaine: another asset in the news for not necessarily the best reason is bitcoin. we started up $18,000. it seemed like everyone thousand dollars or $2000 point move we had someone calling it the bottom. alere at $4200. -- now we are at $4200. bitcoine problem with is their supply is excessive and a lot of people don't get the fact that needs to be stable. that should continue.

i don't see an end to the trend. we put out a signal earlier in the year, good support remains around $1500. joe: rapid up your. what are you -- wrap it up, what are you watching next week? ffa commodityn ct. right now they are at 75% for december. that is the key. we could take that meeting back. the stock market is down and it should come off. taylor: we will have to have you back next week to discuss this in more. mike mcglone from bloomberg intelligence. a quick check on how the markets closed. dow, s&p and the nasdaq. tech stocks having a little bit of a rebound. the s&p still off. most sectors are lower,

including energy up about 3.3%. everything else is either up or off about 1% or less. energy clearly the major underperformer. looking at the bond market close at 2:00 p.m. 10-yaear.the u.s. this was really fun. joe: 1:00 every day. taylor: happy black friday. that is it for "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪ [ phone rings ] what?!

ready for christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he.

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: investors reassessing what 2019 brings. abandoning hope for a year and rally, the worst year since 2008. looking ahead to the g20, the much-anticipated meeting between president trump and president xi. investors drowning in downside risk. >> the biggest risk is trade. it continues to be trade. >> the