tv Best of Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg November 25, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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our exclusive interview is coming right up. >> this monday asian stocks are headed to a lower open for g20. we have several finance ministers already heading to argentina. of course today oil will be in focus as well. the worst week in three years. today we have japanese markets back online after a long weekend. we will get reaction to nissan's dismissal of the chairman. mitsubishi will decide his fate this afternoon. australia stocks are set for a lower open futures indicating a decline of 7/10 of a percent. this as the prime minister is reportedly holding crisis talks after a landslide victory.
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the kiwi dollar is under pressure this morning, sliding after third-quarter retail sales missed all estimates. the kiwi dollar down by one third of a percent against the greenback. also we have the rba governor delivering a speech. later this morning we will get preliminary japanese manufacturer data for november. in the afternoon singapore will post numbers for october. in hong kong trade figures argue at 4:30 p.m. hong kong time. report after pushing out a deadline for its restructuring to december 11 in light of the probe launched by singapore authorities november 20. haidi: now let's get you the first word news. is hinting at a
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possible compromise with the eu premier as the indicates a new willingness to work. it has an resolutely defended until one -- until now. it may not be set in stone. brussels says the budget breaks eu spending rules and may impose fines worth billions of euros. reports from japan say carlos ghosn told prosecutors he did not intentionally under set his pay package at nissan. the former chairman denied all accusations of wrongdoing as formal questioning began. director is- former also denying allegations saying he consulted the sun -- nissan regarding ghosn. leader --ndependence if she wants to avoid becoming a one term president. the democratic progressive the
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-- party suffered a heavy defeat. they lost seven counties including traditional strongholds. the next presidential election is in january, 2020. australia's opposition party leads the other government. that will add to the positive move for his party which also secured a landslide win. some analysis thinks a seat for the liberals was partly a backlash. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. the oil giant's much anticipated arc yell cannot happen until it has completed
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its acquisition. signed a deal this week were $27 billion as they hope a major contract. us.poke exclusively to we began by asking him about the global demand for oil after its worst week last week in three years. >> demand is softening. ande looking at between 1.3 1.4 this year of additional demand. sameyear will also be the in terms of additional demand. 100 billion barrels. there is a lot of demand. when only -- we are not only looking at oil. we are also looking at gas and lng, at chemicals. there is a lot of growth potential as we are trying to balance our upstream and downstream. a lot of growth potential.
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>> the is a bit of skepticism about your ipo, because it has been delayed a couple times now. 2020, 2021, is that date now firm, or could it happen sooner if the transaction closes? >> first of all, as his royal highness highlighted, we are committed for the ipo. his excellency also said we are committed to the ipo. the government is committed to the ipo, for sure. it is about timing. that, thealk before ipo would have happened 2018. in the first half of 2018 we talked about an acquisition, a major stake through a public
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investment fund. these two cannot go concurrently. you cannot list one going through a major acquisition. that makes a lot of sense for us and we need to do it right now. 2 million to 3 million barrels of crude. thickened a lot of steps to bring in foreign investors. the death of journalist jamal khashoggi has dampened sentiments. what is your message to foreign investors? >> there is a lot of investment that is coming in into the kingdom. signed $54 billion worth of investment with our partners. attendingou will be our program forum. we are finding more than 30 deals worth $27 billion. if you put the two together, in
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thanthan two months more $60 billion was found between us and our partners. >> so you're not worried about longer-term damage from the murder of the journalist? we will add more than 3000 participants, more than 150 ceo's. 80 from out of see -- out of saudi arabia. that was the ceo speaking exclusively to bloomberg. we have some breaking news right now. this deals with logitech, the manufacturer of pc devices. estimated acquisition talks with plantronics. terminating acquisition talks with plantronics. we will get you more as we learn more.
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let's head to one of the topics of the past few years, brexit. theresa may has staked her authority now on getting her deal passed by the u.k. parliament after it was formally approved by eu leaders. warned there could be no renegotiation if british lawmakers voted down. kathleen hays is here. may is determined to fight this bottle and win, but so are her opponents. yvokathleen: don't count her out. this is one tough promised her. there are problems on both sides -- kathleen: this is one tough prime minister. she says she is confident she can get it through and ready to -- >> before christmas mp's will vote on this deal. it will be one of the most significant votes parliament has held for many years. it will depend whether we move
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forward together into a brighter future, or open the deal -- door to more division and uncertainty. kathleen: many on the european side say if there was any better deal, theresa may would have gotten it. she was stubborn, tenacious. many hope the deal can go through, including jean-claude juncker, saying brexit is the only deal for britain. let's listen to what he said, because this does seem to be the sentiment overall. >> those who think that by rejecting the deal that they would have a better deal will be disappointed in the seconds after the rejection of this deal. kathleen: of course head of the ec commission, his voice very important in this debate. conservative eurosceptics in her own party take a deal. the u.k. to stay under it for too long.
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theresa may said she is not sad. however, she did not answer questions asked by reporters if what happens if the deal does not pass. would she consider stepping down? she said she is more focused on getting the deal through. clearly if this is not passed and it has to go further, would there be a general wreck -- election? theresa may is not talking about any of that. she is saying, i'm going to get this done. haidi: we're talking about 524 days of negotiations, a 500 plus page document. theyeen: let's be clear, had to agree on a couple very important issues. you would probably have to be in the eu to understand why they are so important. but the rights of citizens living in the eu, that has to be protected. deal, 39of the brexit billion pounds.
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more than the u.k. wanted to pay but better than some estimates. it is really this irish backstop. let's see why it is so contentious. the debate rests on the question of the backstop, meaning what if the future talks -- assuming they will avoid something that allows northern ireland to have a free flow of goods with ireland, with the eu and remain part of the u.k. but it means the whole u.k. stays in until this is done and northern ireland has to follow single market rules. this is been a big issue. the northern irish mp's oppose this. the leader calling for a third way. she says we have to get rid of the irish backstop. then of course in the last hour, so many, including emmanuel macron, his contingent on the u.k. giving french fishermen
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greater access to their waters. now we are seeing all these little deals people are trying to throw in. the chief negotiator tried to fight this back. it will not just be the house of commons and parliament for theresa may, it will be the eu trying to get her 27 members. every vote has to be unanimous. haidi: definitely not exactly smooth sailing for theresa may. we will be watching the next few weeks very keenly. expecting a wild ride. kathleen hays with the latest on brexit. still ahead, a leading democrat says he will investigate'president trumpss business dealings with saudi arabia. ramy: as we approach the end of this year, what should investors be watching in december? the head of investment strategy joins us for that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: a very good morning. we are counting down to the start of trading this week. the open is looking pretty negative. downside of about 1% indicated by futures trading lower. it is a holiday, shortened day on friday. thanksgivingrst decline we have seen since 1939 for that week. ramy, happy thanksgiving, politically. ramy: thank you so much. getting over that coma from the turkey. want to catch you up from that logitech headline we talked of earlier. logitech now saying it is not in an acquisition discussion with plantronics. this is in response to media reports and in accordance with swiss disclosure laws.
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apparently they had been in discussions with plantronics regarding a potential transaction in regards to the peripheral vision space headsets and cameras. those discussions were terminated and logitech says it does not intend to comment further. let's get to our next guest because we are talking about correction territory. u.s. stocks as well as oil plunging. it has traders arming themselves for the next weeks. when of those investors is head of investment strategy at wilson. he joins us from sydney. were's been a lot of red have been seeing across the board. down.p 500 and the dow december,rward to what are you trying to hang your hat on potentially for any positivity? john: good morning. i think this week there is a number of fed speakers which are
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talking in the u.s., including the vice and chairman powell. i think the market is looking for potentially some signs of dovish overtures coming through. wilsons is unlikely. it is more likely to be in 2019. it is backend loaded. two points we are looking for our inflation numbers from the u.s. towards the back end of the week and of course the g20. that i think is the important signal to whether this correction starts to find a fall. backend loaded this week i think. ramy: for sure. looking forward to the g20 most if not all eyes are on trump and xi, where they are scheduled to speak about trade issues. to what degree the think this is a breakthrough, and how often is it that anything could actually
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happen? john: i think markets are looking for a pathway. i am not sure we are actually going to see a detailed agreement this weekend. success, aay to pathway to an outcome would be highly supported for equities globally, provide a potential circuit breaker. haidi: i want to bring out the chart here. this is about 26 years without a recession. country's this fortunes continue to be tied up with china. this is the chart i'm talking about in terms of the growth we are seeing being linked, commodities, exports being a huge part. australia, if you talk about the global and asia supply chain, there are a lot of vulnerable spots. how much does an emerging market rebound on some sort of circuit break or progress being made? or on the other hand, has
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markets already priced in things that will double down in january? john: a lot of bad news is already been priced in. a number of stocks in australia and asia, it is implying a significant fall in earnings. that is not our house view at wilson's. or indo see a pathway outside case of an agreement, i suspect that will be highly supportive to the region and to australia. what else isms of driving this market, we have a lot of fed speak this week. suggesting we will see a number of dovish hikes going into next year and maybe even a fourth. is that becoming a best case scenario? john: look, the fed has always said they will be responsive to data. next year every fed meeting is a live meeting. haidi: communications don't
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change. john: right. communication format changes. our view at wilsons is that view from the fed will not change in december, i think that is a given. evergh 2019 i think there is a chance if the data starts to slow, and there early a few areas in the u.s. where we are seeing higher interest rates impacting real economic activity, housing, auto, you probably need to see that broader for the fed to think about a dovish overture, if you like. ramy: pushing this ahead of little further, the r word, recession. what is wilsons view? do you think it will happen? john: at some point all cycles end but our view is we will not see that next year. even out to 2020 i think that is still nowhere near our best case. you look for signs of excess capacity utilization.
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you look for signs of in be inflationd -- i am not convinced that will feed through to core inflation and force the fed to really jump hard on the brakes. what we are looking for next year is growth still being maintained. you will see a little pickup in inflation. some of the one offs from inflation will start to come out and you will probably start to lated numbersre start to come out of inflation data. and of course health care you will see coming out of the data next year. i'm not convinced this is enough at this point to tip the u.s. into a refresh and -- into a recession. far from it. ramy: what kind of safety do you see? energy was the biggest laggard on friday from oil falling. but utilities have been the only sector that has actually been gaining after, seven, eight,
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nine quarters of continued losses. john: i think that is how we look at the bond markets. look at where 10 year treasuries have gone in the u.s. the scare at the start of october. now we are talking about a three. it is the irony in markets at the moment. markets are worried about these up ticking inflations, but treasury said -- treasuries have come back. toying with a real slowdown in inflation. this makes it a little tricky. the fed probably is not going to communicate that. not just yet, in our view. haidi: thank you so much for joining us. head of investment strategy at wilsons. coming up, just a week after carlos ghosn's arrest, mitsubishi weighs in. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: the future of the nissan mitsubishi alliance is in the air. stephen engle is just back from tokyo where he has been covering this fallout, in particular the meeting thismember week. where do we go from here? stephen: this story is into the second week. there are a lot of potential developments this week, especially today. meets laterhi board today and they will vote on whether to oust carlos ghosn as its chairman as well. of mitsubishi% motors. it bailed them out after a string of scandals.
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has stood byo carlos ghosn, at least last week. but the board will be voting today. it has two nissan members on it. we are hearing this would likely strengthen the cause of the ni ssan ceo in his influence, if you will, on the alliance. renault so far has stood by carlos ghosn as its ceo. the nissan ceo will be briefing global employees later today on the latest on what he calls the misconduct of carlos ghosn, as well as fellow director greg kelly. both of them remain in detention in tokyo. nhk is reporting that carlos ghosn has denied any wrongdoing. that is where we stand right now. ramy: great stuff.
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sydney.t is 9:30 in futures looking like a downside to trading, 1% lower. futures here in sydney, we had the s&p entering correction territory in a thanksgiving thinned session, the worst thanksgiving week for u.s. equities since 1939. i am haidi stroud-watts here in sydney. inocencio here in sit -- in new york. let's get to first word news with annabel. reporter: prime minister theresa may is urgent u.k. lawmakers to embrace her brexit plan after european unit deciliters signed
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off on the deal. 27 nations took less than 40 minutes to approve the agreement . theresa may says it will go before the house of commons before christmas. the e.u. says it is the best for all sides and there will be no renegotiation if the mp's reject the deal. will vote on this, it will be one of the most significant held in many years. it will depend whether we move forward together into a brighter future or open the door to more division and uncertainty. in favor of this deal because this is the best deal possible for britain. watching the united kingdom [indiscernible] uniong the european [indiscernible] u.s. customs has closed all entries at the
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crossing with tijuana. the press is reporting tear gas has been fired at migrants that have reached the fence. thousands of people are camped in tijuana and the city cannot cope. mexican authorities have echoed president trump in calling the caravan and invasion. the saudi intelligence is casting doubt on any report that incriminate mohammad bin salman in the murder of jamal khashoggi. organizations have reported the cia has concluded he did order the killing although president trump doesn't agree, and the saudi king assuring the president -- the presence -- the prince wasn't involved. >> it is inconsistent with the intelligence i have seen. i don't have access to everything the presidencies. the intelligence i have seen suggests this was ordered by the crown prince. reporter: nasa's latest mars
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this is bloomberg. ramy: thank you. let's go over to sophie with another look at the markets. colleague our characterizes it, it looks like a strike through the week. we count down to the g20 summit in argentina friday with the trump-president xi meeting very look forward to. these markets are now back online, plenty for investors to consider this monday. this as the mitsubishi motors board will decide carlos ghosn's fate later this afternoon. we will have a look at japanese manufacturing for november. as annabel discussed, we have brexit getting the thumbs up from the e.u., so we are seeing moves in the pound, edging higher, but sterling hasn't made much headway, but currency strategists see a move to 135
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for sterling should the u.k. parliament give the nod. , it is up .3% after sales missed estimates. the weakest reading since april to june 2015. bitcoin remaining in the doldrums after the worst week ever for crypto. it did cut back some losses, coming back above 4000 but still in the red. observers say the market has yet to bottom. this weekly could get a sense of whether or not the market is getting ahead of itself when it comes to dialing back -- we have seen treasuries inch towards 3%, the lowest since september. we would get a speech from jay powell and the fed minutes. scrutinized very closely. we are watching for any guidance around the fed's balance sheet. this monday we are teeing up for an interesting reading. ramy: thank you very much.
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let's switch gears and look at washington, dc. president trump could be facing another investigation after the top democrat in the house intelligence committee said he's planning to look into the president's ties to saudimo fro. get us up to speed. the democrats taking control of the house of representatives are going to be looking at president trump and his administration on many schiff,n 2019, and adam the top democrat on house intel, talked today about how he would like to know how and whether president trump financial ties -- trump financial ties or enhancing his policy. he is not the only lawmaker to criticize what president trump has said about saudi arabia. plenty of republicans have
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criticized trump as well. you have bob corker, a segment ,rom michael lee, joni ernst trump has faced bipartisan opposition but the democrats are the ones who will look into it. one of the things you start with is in 2015, candidate trump had boastful remarks about how much he sells to saudi arabia, the quotes are all there, saved for all time on the internet. he said that one campaign rally that saudi buys all kinds of toys from trump. democrats will take a look at the toys that may the at play here. at in terms are we of the mexican trade deal? ros: the migration deal i think you mean. haidi: i beg your pardon. ros: you have that on your mind, we always do. had a pretty
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blockbuster report yesterday from the washington post and others that mexico's incoming government looked at -- has agreed with the u.s. it will hold the central american migrants in mexico before they cross over the u.s. border to possibly seek asylum. that would be a big change in immigration policy between the two countries. after that report, which was based on comments from axa can officials, some of the same officials walked it back and say nothing has been agreed to, and they may have possibly gotten ahead of themselves. the government doesn't come into power in mexico until december 1, so it shouldn't be negotiating any deals based on regular protocol. goings deal really is concern, you would expect for challenges we have seen democrats criticize it. it would be a huge deal i think
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for the government and a big win for some of president trump's advisors hard line on immigration. the imageses against you referenced in the prior across themigrants border, the u.s. border in tijuana being tear gassed today. immigration is suddenly a signature issue and it is coming to a head. haidi: pretty difficult with the left wing government coming to take over the reins of government. the detailsmore as become available. our editor there in washington. let's look at what the market week has in store for us in asia. on a bit of a downer. adam haigh is here with us in sydney. we have the s&p in correction territory. it seems like investors are
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split. is this healthy or portending some doom and gloom? adam: there are a few thingsadam: to note how things have been behaving. volatility is something we haven't been accustomed to over this run, so it is something people are adjusting to. the idea of 10% correction amongst the big cycle of equity gains isn't in and of itself that concerning. it is a calibration of some extended valuations in pockets of the market. that should not worry anyone. the more overarching region -- reason that could worry people is the fact that people are bringing back earnings growth expectations, and a lot of people, investors and strategists who are bringing down global growth expectations for the next couple of years. it is a combination of a couple of things that are coming to force prices down. what you are seeing in the bond
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market is notable the last week. we had a real ratcheting down of fed hike expectations for 2019. that has been marked and pronounced. it is rare that we see a move of that magnitude. we use the euro-dollar spread their between 2018 and 2019 to indicate the market expectations for fed hiking next year. this year will be quite -- has the potential to be key because we will hear comments from powell. he could go somewhere to address those concerns investors have about why that might be brought back. we also have the potential for some kind of agreement with president xi and president trump, so that could provides relief. ramy: shifting to bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has continued its decline ever since the middle of december last year. what are folks saying? has it hit part -- bottom?
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it has come back a little bit. adam: it will be brave to call that one. price indications over the weekend for further falls, the price is under pressure. if you look back a year ago, the backend of after thanksgiving when a lot of people signed up for new coinbase accounts, there is no sign that is really happening this year. the landscape is changing in terms of the appetite for cryptocurrencies, and there is a lot oflying shoretel people had even after the big price declines we have seen. to whatke it is tough has already been a tough year for the cryptocurrency space, no sign of any sustainable relief. my stomach hurts each time we continue to cover this. global markets editor adam haigh . don't forget to check out our library for some of the charts you just saw adam bring up on gtv on your own terminal.
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jenna: welcome back. the u.s. holiday shopping season is getting started. cyber monday is hours away. shoppers are expected to spend a on top of8 billion, what was handed on black friday. su keenan is looking at these numbers. it is interesting because folks are saying black friday and cyber monday are becoming one in the same in terms of when people are buying and what. su: and mostly that they are buying online. surveyy -- adobe did a and other firms found many people said they would be doing online shopping this weekend. brave thehey would
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crowds. if you look at the video that has emerged on the weekend, you see this data we find in gtv clicks versus bricks holds through. mobile e-commerce as a percentage of retail e-commerce is increasing but the healthy crowds were out there taking advantage of discounts, almost 7 billion believed to have been spent. -- $7 billion believed to have been spent. and many of the websites of brick-and-mortar companies -- we have video if we can take a look at it. so many of these companies have invested in it, their websites either crashed or had glitches or were overwhelmed. that is a theme that has emerged that even though there is growing evidence it is moving online, these brick and mortars have been slow to catch up to you where we used to have this frenzy of shop until you drop, it is now spread over many days
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as investors realize there are many bargains to be taken care of. we had an interesting development where there was a strike and protest by some of the amazon workers in europe. we didn't see that in the u.s. in terms of companies that had their websites overwhelmed, these are the lists. kohl's and walmart. you also had companies up and training on friday including l brands, and korea, they got bounceback, but there were many stocks that were down in the red friday. that is underscoring a theme for this week that even if we have a record cyber monday in conjunction with strong black friday, it may not overshadow concerns about interest rates and trade of woes that will impact 2019 spending. haidi: thank you so much for that. the cloudsore on
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looming over the holiday shopping season. we are talking of interest rate hikes but in particularly the terrorists wars. this is thes -- vice president at international trade, the retail industry leader of this association, a group of major retailers including best buy, home depot, lowe's and walmart. on this have you thanksgiving weekend. even if we see robust numbers out of black friday and cyber monday this year, there is this cloud. were you expecting to see inflationary pressure on these goods from china? >> our message has been retailers have had a great year, and these terrorists -- tariffs are putting pressure on the supply chains. what we are held for -- hopeful for is they are thinking about
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the american consumers and what next steps to take in this trade dispute with china and particular. -- in particular. they are thinking of the families paying these tariffs they have imposed. haidi: is this a concern weighing on retailers? >> we have made significant investments in our online presence. it is one of the reasons we have seen such great numbers coming out of black friday and what we are looking forward to on cyber ouray, but the other issue retailers have been able to address is mitigation strategies. they have been able to mitigate the first two parts of the terrace put in place. the next is everyday day items like mattresses, toilet paper. rampe tariffs are going to up, expect 10% to 25% in january, that is the focus of
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retailers, trying to figure out what to do in our supply chain. ramy: i am wondering how long u.s. retailers can actually continue to whether this storm. terminal.he bloomberg i want to show our viewers how this is to verging from what is happening with retail sales and consumer confidence. consumer confidence is in white. it is falling for most of this year. but retail sales are rising. how long can they hold on? >> retailers operate on razor thin margins. when these tariffs are put in place, there is nowhere else for the prices to go except for what american consumers pay. that means higher prices great when you look at 20% tariffs, we are focused on trying to make sure customers are getting the best value and the best prices in our store and online. we are working hard with our supply chain executives and sourcing to make sure we are
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bringing the best products to american families. do you rally with shoppers out there, the folks going to the brick and mortars, ? e clicking onto any website how do you say this matters, because i would like to think folks who did black friday and are going into cyber monday and are -- are not really thinking about the trade war as top of mind. >> we want consumers to be focused on going into our stores this thanksgiving and holiday. the products they are most excited about -- we want to make sure our products are priced at the right price point and ready for holiday all around the country. how we think about consumers are experiencing tariffs right now, we are trying to mitigate that as much as possible so consumers are not feeling it. there are certain places where razor thin margins will cause price increases. we have been able to mitigate
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through most, but our focus is making sure the 25% ramp up that comes in january is delayed as much as possible or forestalled and focused on the fourth bunch of tariffs the president threatened. we are hopeful that when the president sits down with president xi at the g20 meeting that they are able to focus on resolving this issue and keeping american consumers in mind. haidi: are you and your retailers managing expectations, and therefore you would have in your back pocket some sort of strategy for dealing with worst-case scenario? we have been getting lower and lower expectations for the meeting. >> the best outcome is for the two leaders from china and the united states to sit face to face and resolve this. what we have seen this far is a commitment the president had made to sit down with president xi is a great commitment. it is something retailers commended in a letter last
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month. we are hopeful they can sit down face to face and resolve this issue. the best case scenario would be a pathway forward that would allow for the tariffs to be forestalled, and then taking very serious steps to resolve the underlying intellectual property issues. thank you for joining us. coming up, australia's labor party is riding high at the ballot box after a landslide election win. we will look at the state of play ahead of a national vote next year. this is bloomberg. ♪ r. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the liberals say it will focus on state issues. we saw this happening before. opportunityevery voters get to take the stick out of the government, they are seizing the opportunity. we would normally do this, but what our results? the government expanding its majority from 45 to 60? it was a stomping win. the party picking up seats were normally liberal party was safe. what about the brick layers? the one spent less than $2000 on his campaign. lift toneed a parliament if he wins. it does illustrate the depth of voter sentiment against the federal government really. ramy: setting aside infighting, where there listens in terms of policy? -- lessons in terms of policy? paul: it was interesting because
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the liberal party which rules nationally but was in opposition in victoria, there had been a terror attack in melbourne, but the labour party campaigning on testing, the energy policy, to have 50% of the electricity generated by renewables by 2030. there was an embrace of that policy and rejection of this campaign that was fought on fear from the liberal party as well. the policy sentiment among voters was interesting as well. game continues. some parties saying it will still blame mark -- malcolm turnbull apparently. paul: still reaching out to the base. ahead looking pretty bad of the federal election next year. that is just about it for daybreak australia, but daybreak asia is next. look at how trading in new zealand is getting underway. we are getting underway when it comes to trading in australia,
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haidi: good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. good evening from new york, i am ramy inocencio. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. welcome to daybreak asia. haidi: our top stories, caution is the watchword for the start of the trading week, futures indicating a lower open in australia and japan and hong kong. theresa may wins e.u. backing, although
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