tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg November 26, 2018 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
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one of the catalysts for the different people see things. one of the catalysts for the selloff, we are a long way from neutral. [bell ringing] know we are at the closing bell. i think they want to see that the fed is prepared to slow down if necessary. have theand there you closing bell, stocks rising, recovering from last week's selloff, the biggest -- the worst week, i should say, the biggest decline in one month, the dow adding 354 points, the s&p up, and, joe, it was a broad advance, 23 out of 24 sectors in the s&p gaining. joe: yes, and obviously, those focus.re in there was the last eight or nine weeks, but then as we talked about a minute ago, financials
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having a good day. isrlet: and with tech, it notable that you have some rotation in safer for old technology companies, like microsoft, rather than the newfangled names like facebook or netflix. let's take a deeper dive with our reporters and get started with lisa. rter: selling billions of two-year treasury notes today, but what was interesting it was actually a pretty strong auction. you take at the percentage of the overall total of on the sales that sold at primary dealers, where people have to take this debt down, no matter what, and it is the smallest since january. int indicates a change demand. what this indicates is after a year in which these bonds are yielding now nearly one percentage point more than they were at the beginning of the year, at this point, investors want to buy.
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they see an attractive deal. risk, they are coming in, demanding higher yields, yes, but they are happy to be buying, abigail. the question is whether or not it can last considering the s&p 500 is on pace for its worst quarterly performance since 2011, when there was a brief bear market. relatively -- the chart, it is a long-term chart, and we are looking at the corporate bond spread to get that is the difference between corporate bond yields and belowries, and when it is or tight, that says investors are paying less, but when it widens, such as it did at the end of the financial crisis, -- ators are indicating that time, risky socks -- stocks selloff. corporate spreads for the most
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part coming in. what i would like to point out at this point, for the most part, corporate spreads have been lower but right now starting to break above that the-term downtrend, saying widening we have been seeing may just continue, and if it does, it may suggest a real round of risk off, which, of course, with that congestion on top for the s&p 500, and it might just break to the downside. report: one of the biggest oneers was in -- reporter" of the biggest gainers today -- reporter: one of the biggest casino stocks,as and there are some of the gaming receipts coming out of macau. las vegas sands, about 60% coming from there. 19%, so any kind of rebound we get out of macau
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is going to be good. receipts out of macau a sickly dropped off of the map because of the typhoon and then in october because of the chinese -- receipts out of macau basically dropped off the map because of the typhoon and then in october because of the chinese situation. down theirtcheted expectations, now in the 2% to 3% range, which is what we have had for the past couple of months, but a little more strength from the tourists going high rollers rolling in. macau open their door to u.s. casinos about 16 years ago. it has been a huge cash cow. there is a concern that this could be coming to end with the regulatory issues as well as with some of the license is that are going to be expiring over the next couple of years, but right now, at least for today, some of these stocks getting a little bit of a reprieve as we head into december. caroline? caroline: casinos and credit.
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still with us is eddie perkin and luke kawa. want to ask you about these volumes, something scarlet was picking up on. should we be wrapping up right now? luke: in the future, i think this does have something to do with the fact that the risk we have is on top, and we know what it is. we have had a lot of said speak. , withe got the trump talk everyone waiting for the tone to set the tone for the equity markets, so i think it is more a function that we have big events on tap. if there is anything to trade off of, it will be traded. that point,to exactly, what are you looking trump meeting that
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would satisfy the market? these things always get negotiated ahead of time, so he event itself is not that important, but i do not see a deal being struck, but i think the architecture of the deal, the framework of the deal, a commitment to work together to deal with the intellectual property issue and not just high-level, 30,000 foot type of comments, but a little bit of meat on the bone, some details as to how it would work, a timetable, and a commitment on both sides to see it through, i think that would be very well received by the market. that may be the case, but is this going to be a drag on the markets heading into the year end, or is this something that down the road will not really matter because we know there will be some kind of resolution? eddie: well, i think people are debating still whether we are
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going into an all-out trade war or if this is simply a negotiating posture. i am in the camp of thinking these are negotiating move send comments and not to think too much of it, but if i am wrong, there is further downside, but i think the removal of the negatives is often the best catalyst for the market. any sense we get to inclusion on trade that we are going to put in place something that is a multi-year, long-lasting agreement in terms of how the u.s. and china are going to interact in the global economy will be taken well by the market, and i think the timing of that may surprise the market. i think people are waiting to see the details, but i think any sense that we are on that path will be enough, because of where sentiment is today after the selloff we have seen in recent weeks, any sign that there may be a glimmer of hope may be enough to get the market going again. what does that
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mean for volatility, and what does that mean for the vix? luke: i think it is good to see contango.ngo -- , we canny point in time hope, and i think one of the positive signs is that we hope we do not get any more brisk moves to the downside. october was the biggest leveraging in terms of margin debt since 2011, so just the narrative of the hedge fund and weres that were loved, highflying, getting killed, if we have overcome that, maybe we can get into a little less of these moves in either direction. deleveraging, and yet
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also seen de-risking. with your clients, this is something we keep hearing from reporters, that cash offers an alternative that it did not before. there used to not be an alternative to stocks, but now, there is. eddie: for those acting out of fear, it is tempting to buy cash and cash-related -- or to own cash and to buy cash-related instruments. warren buffett has famously said and has said over the years one when greedy.rful as a contrarian, it is time to take advantage for some of the opportunities the market is growing our way. do not operate from the perspective of fear, because
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carrying high cash levels,'s with its own cost in terms of inflation and taxes and missed opportunity -- because carrying high cash levels comes with its own cost in terms of inflation and taxes and missed opportunity. ie, thank you so much, as well as bloomberg's luke kawa. that doesn't for the closing bell and me. next up, "what'd you miss?" this is "bloomberg markets: the close." ♪
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caroline: live from london, i am caroline hyde. anchor: i am romaine bostick. two weeks. joe: the question is, what'd you miss? caroline: black friday sales start to themerry hollywood season. general motors announcing a major restructuring of its business. and editing embryos. a chinese researcher is claiming to have produced the world's first genetically edited baby. we will talk about the stock reacting to the news. celebrating. "the wall street journal
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"the wall street thenal" talking about tariffs with china, saying it is highly unlikely to hold off on tariffs, so, again, "the wall street journal" saying it will move forward, the u.s. will move forward with those tariffs up to 25%. joe: context ahead of the big meeting. transaction data, based on same-store sales, capturing the holiday retail season live as it happens, and for more on the data, we welcome our guest, guy. you have real-time dashboard -- the pulse of the american consumer. who is winning? i think the consumer at the end of the day, but in the lead up to cyber monday, we have 6%
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growth in spending and also in retail, but the brick-and-mortar business, something we have not talked about in a while, but we saw growth of in-store traffic to match the 15% to 18% spread, so that was a good one for those retailers. did your data get a sense there was a trend picking up prior to black friday? guy: two things. ironically, preholiday, we saw less than last year. to the comps, last year was such a great year. we did not think we would see the robustness, but consumer confidence is obviously very high this year. possible for consumers to do business, they are doing it. uy, with the breakdown and who is wanting to spend, we talk about the that they want
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experiences as opposed to actual tangible goods. we see the experiences are coming through, especially in the mobile sales. we see it in a range of ways, whether home depot or restaurants, and happening with regularity, but i think with new apps and new experiences, it is driving people to try different things. the consumer is very confident in using these digital channels. now that we are past black friday and in cyber monday, do we typically see a drop off does it accelerate? ay: a couple of things be first of all, today is a very big day. cyber monday is a place where there is very consistent spending. it was very robust this morning. you will see it pick up throughout the afternoon and evening, and in all, fridays are the largest spending days between now and christmas.
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those are the trends we see. we will show you what is going on every second of every day throughout the country across millions of different types of businesses. questions, the big it is great that sales are up, but there are margins and whether the companies can really pass along very is price increases in things like transportation. do you get insight into that? guy: we do, and the growth i talked about, the 6% from thanksgiving to black friday, what we see is the increase in transactions was a very small increase in ticket size, so what that really says, there is nothing that is really inflating the numbers that we are looking at. i do not know about the margin or pricing power, but we have seen this without the retailers or general clients having to drop their prices. , are we seeing in
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terms of retailer is something towards ending the sales? in the u.k., where they have imported black friday with gusto? what we will watch over the next couple of weeks. i think the more robust the early sales are, you start to see some of the discounting disappear or dissipate. over the next few weeks, it may come back at the end of the season. every retailer, every business seeing a slightly different trend, and a the result of that, they do different things. the key point is that we try to give them a real-time dashboard view, and from that point, it they make their decisions and what they can do or should not do based on sales. : i want to go back to the brick-and-mortar retailers. a single brand retailer like a lululemon? guy: we see the high-end or specialty retail stores have done very well this season. again, not something we might have predicted, so there has not
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been a significant differentiation right now. it has been very positive for the specialty retail stores. caroline: we thank you very much, indeed. interesting to get your perspective. guy chiarello. expected toump is move ahead with a 25% according to "the wall street journal." a 25% tariff, and it looks like he is holding on to that view that it will be , with any deals being done in the g20, and seeing offshore yuan and renminbi. .his is bloomberg ♪
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joe: we went to check in on the futures on this morning from want tot trump -- we check in on the futures on this morning from president trump about the tariffs. futures, not massive, not a racing the gains yet, but it is still early, and we will see how things shake out as investors digest the news. it was just a tic lower. romaine: i think will be interesting after the g20. joe: also, apple shares coming under pressure, as well. the iphone sales, again, lots to digest. right, let's turn back to the auto industry, general motors, of course, making that announcement that it is going to cut about 14,000 jobs and close plants.
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it also drew a lot of attention from president trump. notident trump: well, we do like it. i think they will be opening up something else. i was very tough. i spoke with her when i heard they were closing, and i said, "this country has done a lot for general motors to do have better get in there soon. that is ohio, so you had better get back there soon." a lot of pressure. they say the chevy cruise is not -- the chevy cruze is not selling well, so i say to find something else and put in their -- there. they had better put something else in. we bring in more, our reporter from detroit. this issue with gm and their decision to scale back, is this related to their demand for cars
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or more related to the cost of producing those cars? >> the demand for those cars have gone down sharply. the american consumer has moved away from the sedan, the chevy , anda and the chevy cruze they are buying sport-utility and trucks. mary barra, she is trying to get ahead of trouble. they are still making billions at general motors, but she sees a future where she is going to have to spend billions on things like electric vehicles and self driving cars and wants to get prepared for that. g.m. had to anticipate backlash from president trump and in ontario and ohio. of what gma sense has done going into today to head off these attacks that they are going to face on sort of
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abandoning these workers? they had to have eyes wide-open going into this. trump certainly goes on attack. ford, hastown rival, -- in thecal in past past about making cars in mexico. tookdent trump basically mary barro to the -- mary barra to the woodshed and told her she had better put something back. kind of aere is success story. i am wondering how did we get to this point now, where the company seems to at least be hinting that the arson struggles ahead? well, ironically, what this is an example of is gm learning its lesson from 10 years ago. way theyhose days, the
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paved their path into bankruptcy is they did not acknowledge the cars that did not make money. this time, they are trying to get those cars out of the lineup, that that capacity out of the lineup, but it is with wall street's response. this is to keep gm driving and surviving. keith, talk about the underutilization of these factories. the number of shifts they had had gone down as the demand had gone down. keith: right. so general motors has the capacity to build one million more cars than it currently is building. they went to one shift, which you never want at a factory, and at one of the plants that is hawa, and also in detroit, and single-shift plants do not make money. that is not sustainable.
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-- romaine: how we can they shift? if they are building pickup trucks, and consumers decide they want fuel-efficient sedans, how quickly can they make that transition? done in acan be matter of years. there is a factory in detroit that used to build the big old detroit navigator. starting next year, they will be producing a pickup truck and an suv. consumern do that as choices change, but it just cost a lot of money. e: interesting story. we will see how it develops in the days ahead and also politicians' reactions. thanks to keith. this is bloomberg. ♪
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my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. >> let's get to the first world news. president trump is not happy 15% of's plan to cut workers and is pressuring the automaker to create work at the seven factories that are closing. the president spoke to reporters as he left the white house. former trump campaign advisor george papadopoulos began serving a two week prison sentence after a judge rejected his bid to remain free. he was sentenced in september for lying to the fbi about and directions with russian intermediaries during the 2016 presidential campaign. spacecraft landed on mars
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today after a six-month, 300 million mile journey and a perilous six minute dissent -- nasa erecteders at in screams of laughter -- erupted in screams and laughter when the news was announced. news 24 hours per day, on air and on twitter, powered by more than 27 hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. caroline: it's time for a bloomberg exclusive. we have spoken with the ceo following crude's collapse. we got his outlook. looking at between 1.3 and 1.4 of additional demand
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this year. next year, it will be also the same in terms of additional demand. we are crossing 100 million barrels, so there is a lot of demand in our industry. we are not looking only at oil. we are looking also at gas and chemicals. close toe investment half $1 trillion over the next 10 years. investment,at our 160 billioning at dollars. if you look at crude to chemical and integration and our refining with more of the feed going into petrochemical, you are looking at over $100 billion. that is not including the acquisition. the rest is for oil. aramco's was saudi president and ceo talking about
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high demand. itse oil in the u.s. having rest day in a while. here to talk about this is tina, bloomberg's managing editor. i see crude oil rising because and they thinks opec saudis are pumping beyond belief. >> the saudis are pumping in ways they haven't ever in recorded history. as you said, there was the opposite reaction in markets today where there was a recovery in what has been a precipitous drop in prices over the last month. markets are looking at, the saudi output was ramped up in anticipation of iranian sanctions. they had sent -- that hasn't worked in the way the markets thought, so prices have can down substantially. in terms of what is happening today, you can look to anticipation of the g20 meeting this weekend, or friday and
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saturday, in argentina. my colleague had a story last week talking about three people who can influence oil prices. those people are going to be at the meeting. the saudi crown prince, vladimir putin and donald trump. all eyes on a production cut. what scale is needed to bring optimism back to what price above $60?is >> there has been discussion about one million barrels per day taken off the market. that is the interesting part. the saudis have talked openly about 500,000 barrels per day of personal cuts from their output. when you go into a situation where you know you will be cutting production, you want to ramp up as much as possible so the cut isn't as painful in terms of the overall figure. the has the recent crash in price of oil dented the short-term outlook for u.s. supply? affecting u.s.
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supply is the constraints we discussed in terms of infrastructure. if we see oil prices staying west$50 per barrel for texas intermediate, we could see cutbacks in spending. we could see, it will be redetermination season in the spring. what does that do to the available credit for some of these companies? it depends on how extended the prices are. notewas looking at this saying we average the bottom -- we have reached a bottom and the commodities issues have -- could be resolved. are these issues really able to be resolved in a format like provideat will actually a big boost in prices? >> the goldman note was bullish on pretty much every commodity there is, which is interesting given how badly commodities have done this past year. only natural gas has done well and palladium and a few ag
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crops. everyone loves palladium, right? about what the g20 meeting will be, it will usurp the attention that will be at the opec meeting next month, evil willis is where be meeting at we are expecting an indication on what these leaders will do on the cut. russia has been previously hesitant on cuts and they have talked about other options. there will be interest in seeing what putin's stance is. caroline: between a rock and a hard place for opec. if they do reduce production, what does that mean in terms of isket share when u.s. pumping? is this a conundrum for them? how much will u.s. shares be able to pick up the slack? >> it is tricky because as you open up to competition flooding in, shale has done that in the past few years. ,e have seen production added
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but there are other plays, like oil coming out of colorado and other places, that could be added to if we see prices recover. at $50 per barrel, this is the way that if you are opec, you might try to starve e&p of funding going forward and kill all the ones that are not able to survive leaner times. that depends on whether or not these prices are sustained them a but you don't want the prices to go to high to encourage competition. you also need to have an $70 peron north of barrel for brent to make budgets work. tina, thanks for the breakdown. to's turn our attention tech. president trump says 10% tariffs could be placed on items from china. that is according to the wall street journal. shares are falling after hours.
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let's get the inside track from mark. give us some context. how much is apple affected by the current tariff cfo -- the current tariffs? mark: apple put out a letter talking about how this would impact consumers and would be hurtful to its business based in the u.s. they said products like the apple watch and some of their cables, the apple pencil, the , ands tool for the ipad the mac mini would be impacted but the holy grail, the iphone, was left out of that, which is good news for investors at the time. now, we have today's news, which is why the stock is falling after hours. caroline: in the last -- weeks, the last several apple shares have lost a few hundred billion dollars in market cap and the concern is demand for the new iphones. given the anxiety already about
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apple's ability to sell would an phones, what additional price crease thanks to the tariffs mean for consumer inclination to buy them versus a competitor? mark: the past two months have not been good. a halfber 3, a month and ago, apple hit its peak at around $233 per share. brieflyhey were surpassed by microsoft in the low 800 billion in terms of market capitalization. in terms of what it would do to iphone pricing, the question we have to ask is, have iphone prices already priced in these tariffs? has apple already gradually constructed these bigger prices, higher prices to work around this issue? with the new ipad, they had a massive price increase between $150 and $200 at the end of
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october. the increased prices of the mac by $300 per unit. the increased the price of the apple pencils, everything they said would be impacted, they have done price increases. it will be interesting to hear if apple has priced in tariffs on these higher iphone prices. if not, if they will raise prices for the, i'm not sure how much room they have left. they would have to take the impact on their own shoulders versus passing this to the consumer. >> given their dependence on using contract manufacturers, is there any buyable -- viable to move those contracts to companies outside of china? mark: the reasons trump is doing the iphone andts all these products built in the u.s. instead of overseas, and exported globally or to the u.s. especially. in the past, apple has done this in two cases where other countries have placed tariffs on imported goods and they had to
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move their facilities if they want to sell iphones at reasonable prices. this happened in brazil five years ago and happened in india over the past two years. the brazil operations are basically gone at this point. that didn't work out for either side. india, it is going strong in terms of how it is working with the government on cheaper phones but they are not selling a ton. moving operations to the u.s. would likely be pretty much impossible in the near-term given the complexity of the supply chain and manufacturing needed at this scale. i don't see that happening anytime soon. they would have to weigh the costs of moving it versus paying the tariffs. you blow us away with your insight. thank you very much. later this hour, we will look at another angle on apple come of the supreme court battle. stay tuned for that. coming up, a scientific announcement from china is raising doubts about ethical concerns.
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caroline: time for a look at the stories trending across bloomberg. first up, terminal users reading about gm's plans to cut 14,000 jobs and potentially shut seven factories by the end of 2019. they will and production of some lesser selling models. twitter, reporting on china's bid to challenge american gps. china launched 18 satellites for its navigation system. chinese want to be accessible worldwide by 2020. speaking of china, bloomberg.com has a story on a chinese who claims his lab
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altered the genes of a parrot of twin girls. he said the girls are resistant to hiv because of his work. the scientist complained a hospital approved the project owner saysspital's they have no knowledge of this. the announcement of the procedure was done on youtube as aposed to a journal or conference. china's national health commission asked regional authorities to investigate. stories onlow these bloomberg.com and on tictoc on twitter. because of the scientist's announcement, gene editing stocks climbed. let's bring in robert, who covers dna technology. thanks for joining us. break this down. what did the scientist in china announce and do people fully believe it? is, this isreason
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the first claimed announcement that human gene editing, designer babies with dna theynently edited, and could pass these gene at its on to babies. it is not like ticking sells out and sticking them back in. this could be passed on, so it is controversial. youtube: it was done on , when i thought youtube wasn't accessible in china. what about the ramifications for u.s. stocks that moved on this? editingseveral gene companies were up today. it is unclear why they went up. are notntist's claims what they are trying to do. they are trying to do something , working on diseases like sickle cell and
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they are talking about modifying adult cells, not permanent gene editing of embryos, which is a whole mother level of controversy. level ofe nother controversy. joe: the u.s. has restricted -- >> the u.s. restricted some of this research, unlike china which has given it more of a green light. what kind of regulatory issues are there? : one of the ethicists i talked to says there hasn't been a lot of global agreement or attempts at global agreement, like, what will we do about these powerful technologies? the laboratory kits can cost less than $1000. what are the rules to try to set up international rules before people come out with designer babies that nobody had heard about a few days ago? a bigger fits into
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theme, the anxiety am the part of many in the u.s., most notably the trump administration, that we are in this technological arms race with china and we have to slow them down, that they are going to dominate major industries. is this a source of anxiety for the industry in the u.s., this divergent regulatory situation? robert: i don't think this announcement should be because u.s. companies are doing a lot of medically based work better in the lead of this in terms of medical applications. , in is very much one dr. vitro fertilization, designing a baby. that is where the controversies are. no question, everyone says they are not surprised this was inevitable and the first person the claims -- that claims to have done it is in china. there are all sorts of unknowns, so that is why there is so much
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caroline: let's get back to apple. earlier, we looked at how president trump's threat tariffs on iphones from china. we are looking at a supreme court case. the court looks like it will allow an antitrust lawsuit that accuses apple of using its dominance to artificially inflate prices at its app store. was with more is naomi, and in the courtroom for the argument. remind us why this is important. >> they take a 30% commission. the essential question the
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hearing focused on was whether consumers have standing to sue apple over artificially raising its prices through the app store. apple says no, consumers don't have that kind of standing because consumers are purchasing apps directly from app existings and antitrust law says indirect purchasers don't have the standing to collect those kinds of damages. but consumer says apple is 30% commission off app purchases and it is artificially raising those prices. of course we should be able to collect damages. a price in theory that wouldn't be problematic, or could this throw into doubt, depending on where this evolves too, and i know there are multiple steps, this is just one thing, where it could throw into doubt the business model overall of the app store? naomi: the ruling in this case
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could have much further ranging consequences for any company that operates in that marketplace. whether it is facebook, ebay, amazon, that is why you saw other associations piping in, saying we actually agree with apple in this case. on the flipside, you saw states that had already adjusted their antitrust laws to allow indirect purchasers to collect antitrust we side also saying with the consumers in this case. the supreme court should revisit this. confused as to how this is an antitrust issue. apple setting a price or commission level that is charging the app developers, then the app developers are the ones deciding what price they will sell the app? is that how it works? naomi: yes, but consumers say monopoly -- apple is a
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in this case. apple sets the rules in terms of taking that 30% commission. the developers have no choice to -- but to adhere to that. apple doesn't have many other options in which to reach consumers. if apple didn't take the 30% cut, and if there were any other market players wear app developers could reach consumers, prices for apps would be lower. that is why it is an antitrust and anti-competition issue. joe: i know this is apple specific, the arguments being made in front of the supreme court, but there has been a lot of talk in general about using antitrust bring to bear pressure on big tech companies. bes be a harbinger, -- could -- could this be a harbinger of more people trying to use antitrust to limit the power of tech giants? is one more venue in
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washington in which the question of tech companies getting too big, or using market power in that are anticompetitive. we are seeing that question raised among lawmakers in members -- byth both sides of the aisle. we are seeing the trump raise that question. held ainistration meeting with state attorney general's to discuss the issue this year. this is apple and other companies battling the question about whether they are getting too big on just another, and another battleground. naomi,e: thanks, breaking down the apple supreme court case. speaks at ade chief conference on commercial policy. joe: i will be watching for earnings. >> u.s. consumer confidence data for november comes out at 10:00 a.m. eastern. caroline: for all of us, that is it for "what'd you miss?"
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