tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg November 27, 2018 7:00pm-8:01pm EST
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the chances of a trade detente this weekend. president trump is said to be open at a deal at the g20 but says that china will have to step up. ramy: bmw is committed to the u.s. and will continue to invest. we hear from the ceo. we are live from the l.a. auto show. let's get straight to the markets rightthe chances of a te this weekend. now. ast are you looking at today we head towards that countdown for the g20 summit? sophie: we have a few events on the horizon. trump-e focusing on the xi dinner. opec is in focus. traders are wondering if group could keep above $50 per barrel. taking a look at equity markets, asian starts mostly higher. you take a look at the mood in japan. the nikkei up. we are seeing weakness as , we are tracking declines in base metals. a gauge of raw materials from
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bloomberg shows that they are under pressure, in the lowest level since june. trade very much in focus. little data to detract. the lading game is continuing. kiwi dollar, finding a little support. -- mortgage lending curbs will be lucid. checking in on the aussie dollar, it has been stuck in a rut. economic good sign of resilience on one hand but trade anxiety remained. are probably spooked by more signs of a china slowdown. aoomberg economics expecting's six-month. the 60 day moving average may continue to be can -- challenged. space ofomes to the the yen, that is tied to the
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fed, driven by widening yield differentials with the u.s.. the yen trading near a two-week low. focus will be on whether powell will keep their stance of hikes even with groping growth -- global growth. -- a second day of gains after the s&p fell into correction territory last month. investors have been mulling these comments, weighing the chances of a breakthrough on u.s. china trade over the weekend with this dinner scheduled. let's get more with our bloomberg mliv strategist. we are in a bit of a holding pattern but i'm wondering. going into this dinner date between u.s. and chinese presidents, are we looking for a binary result? what are the possibilities here? >> good morning.
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a lot of investors are looking for thes -- at this last chance of the year-end rally occurring. we had a pretty rough time in october. it was a terrible month for most asset classes. if we don't get some kind of risk on sentiment coming out of the g20 specifically, that could be it for the year. there's no chance of any december rally occurring. it's a pivotal moment for a lot of investors, watching to see if there's any concession. even if it's just a bit of kicking the can down the road. china coming up with more time for the trade issues. that would be seen as a good thing. the last thing that investors want to see is that the two leaders can't agree on anything, that they come away with the meeting -- from the meeting with nothing at all. it sounds like the united states will go ahead with all of the tariffs it promised in january.
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that's the outcome that nobody wants to see. we have a very a present -- unpleasant december where people want to get rid of risky decisions. we could have a turbulent ending to the year. people are looking for something a betterhe year into finish than what we have had in recent months. haidi: still holding out for that santa claus rally. in terms of how much the markets have priced in the potential for the tariffs to go up and be extended, what is that looking like? >> there is still some or downside to come should we go to 25% tariffs on the existing group, maybe even a larger number of issues. there's room for markets to go even further downward. one of the things we are beginning to see, for a while it , a lottly china equities of discounting and a china markets.
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investors were thinking it was hurting china more in the short-term. we are seeing that spread to the united states as well. the tech sector is having a rough time. tariffs,mp in more some of the big tech stocks will be added to that list as well. the american markets are beginning to respond as well. if we get signs that there is no agreement between china and the united states, it could get even worse in the u.s. market. that would affect global sentiment as well. ,here's even more downside particularly if nothing happens this weekend. ramy: another downside for equities is what happens with the fed and those rate hikes. help us wrapped together any clues that we've gotten from fed speakers so far this week. >> there was something for everybody. a lot of speakers. they cross the whole gamut from people that were the vice chair of the fed on site for more gradual tightening, we heard from signs of distress already
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in certain parts of america, particularly related to housing. there was something for everybody to take away whether you are hawkish or dovish. jay powell hasn't spoken yet. he will speak later today in america. he will stay on message, the fed is happening -- happy. they will go ahead in december and possibly even hike rates again early next year. we are not expecting mr. powell to deviate too much despite the criticism he is getting from donald trump, who doesn't seem to be too happy with his choice at the moment. get -- expect powell to stay on the same message. ramy: thank you very much. to follow more on this story and all the day's trading on our market live blog, on the bloomberg and mliv . you can get a market run down in
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one click and with tom at -- commentary and analysis. moment ine a pivotal the trade were between the u.s. and china would president trump on xi meet over dinner saturday morning. our china correspondent joins us now from where he has been watching everything in beijing. what is the latest we have been hearing from the trump administration side about the likelihood of any deal? >> we had this briefing from larry kudlow from the white house economic council. he said that trump thinks there's a good possibility of a deal, trump is open to make a i at this president x g20 dinner. but saying that the chinese need to put more on the table. he outlined, i was reading the transcript. he outlined the areas of structural changes that the u.s. would like to see china make,
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whether that's a quality across the markets, ending subsidies for certain companies, ending the situation around joint ventures for businesses operating here. major structural changes. the sense you get from kudlow is not that he expects for to make incessant across the board. if the chinese company this with a renewed attitude, it could lead to continue talks around some of these areas. maybe acceptance that some of these things are issues. china has and said that intellectual property is an issue. there is still some way to go. we heard from trump talking yesterday saying he is prepared to put on additional tariffs should they not get a deal. we heard from kudlow again to reedit trading -- reiterating this issue's, saying they are coming from a position of strength. thinkfficials in china that china is in a better position to weather this storm.
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a lot to play for ahead of this meeting. premier isa's vice speaking on a trip to germany. has he given as a hit on how this g20 dinner is going to play out? >> it sounds like china is going to come to the table with many of the things that they've already said that they are willing to do. there was nothing radically different in what the vice from your said in his speech in hamburg. when it comes to sitting down between the two presidents, that might change. kudlow said they will continue to open up the markets. we will continue to push through policies and make it easier for foreign businesses to operate in china. the president has talked about opening up sectors like education, telecoms, the medical sector.
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telecoms, the medical sector. it always comes down to exactly how those comments in that rhetoric is actually implemented on the ground. you always get complaints from foreign businesses as to this bead and quality of that implementation. we've also heard from the chinese ambassador to the u.s.. he was asked about whether or not china would consider if this trade war, weaponizing the treasury holding. that's been a concern for some economist. he said that would be like playing with fire. they were not prepared to go down that route. in terms of the market implications, we've also been hearing from fidelity. they say if you get a hint of cooperation between beijing and washington, that would be positive. if you don't get a deal, it's very likely that the yuan would weaken below that dollar level. we will be looking at the chinese equity markets, down over 20% so far. a lot of money riding on this meeting. haidi: our china correspondent in beijing with a preview of what we are expecting at the g20. let's get you the worst -- first word news.
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>> sterling weakened as theresa lost her back brexit tour, signs will be difficult for the deal to pass the house of commons. the prime minister has caved in from pressure to desta part of -- to pressure from parliament. she had wanted a straightforward take it or leave it debate. early indicators from china suggest the economy slowed first six straight month in november as the trade war drags on growth. government moves to support household and private companies have a been enough to lift the economy. weakness in china's major trading partners doesn't help. a group of google employees signed a public letter opposing plans for a product in china that censors results. the initiative would further enable chinese state over
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regular people. it was signed by 10 employees. google says project dragonfly is only exploratory. indonesian investigators resume the search for the cockpit voice recorder as relatives demand more answers -- information about the disaster. a faulty airspeed sensor may have ordered the 747 max into a steep dive soon after takeoff. families have given no further details. we have been told the delay is due to the need for specialized search vessel. ,lobal news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. what -- southeast asia's untapped lending market. next, a money manager
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haidi: this is daybreak asia. our next guest says the upcoming trump-xi talks are unlikely to have a breakthrough. tokyo iss now from north cape capital head of japan office. great to have you on the show here. before we got to you, we were talking about how you and how your company plans to profit. have you plan to profit from these tensions? >> we need to see the meeting between xi and president trump
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as a ceremonial affair. to beade tension is going a structural feature of markets for the next few years. if you look at the list of grievances against china, ip theft, currency manipulation, cyber were fair. sea,on in the south china human rights issues. this such a broad range of complaints that you have bipartisan support in the u.s. from a tough stance against china. really, we are looking from companies that can shift their supply chain easily out of china. have been wrongly sold off in all of the excitement of the deal. at the same time, the area that looks most vulnerable to us is chinese companies that are aligned on u.s. technology. they face significant headwinds. we shouldn't expect too much
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from this dinner meeting. ramy: when you talk about shifting supply chains, all of our guests say it's an order of several months to do that. which companies do you think might be better positioned to be more mobile here? >> i'll give you an example. tektronix is a company we really like. it's been sold off badly this year, trading on 14 times earnings. it's a wonderful company. it's a milwaukee bland. it's a leading tools company in the world. in the first half, they reported 30% sales growth globally from milwaukee. the stoxx should not be trading on 14 times earnings when it's net cash. this company already has a large workforce in the u.s.. manufacturers,l they are looking already in vietnam, bangladesh, indonesia.
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competent management, good management teams in asia have been worried about this issue for a long time. i don't see too many companies that are now reacting to what we are seeing in this china-u.s. trade relationship. most companies have been shifting their supply chains quietly out of china to newer markets like vietnam. space,in terms of the -- are there still pockets of particular companies within that narrative that are compelling? >> we really like luxury cosmetics. mucharket here focuses too on duty fee channel, a big channel for chinese consumers. for luxurys to entry cosmetics are very high. it's not easy to create another brand.
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we see great opportunity in the korean space, lg household and health care. this company is just a wonderful product. this is the skincare brand that sells onshore in china. this is a key point. sales are growing at 40-50%. all the noise about chinese tourist arrivals to karina -- korea, this is a fantastic brand. we think cosmetics penetration in china is a very -- is very low still. the regulatory overtones we've seen this year, that does it worry you from china? certainly there is some short-term regulatory risk. in the long-term, asia contains most of the big markets for come desk as medics. asian consumers are the best
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cosmetic consumers in the world. japan, korea, hong kong. china is still very low. i don't think it's a gdp issue. it's a cultural issue. we area very rapid catch-up. maybe we will see some taxes or change in channel, whether it's e-commerce or duty-free. the reality is, the number of chinese consumers willing to pay for high end luxury cosmetics could grow 20 plus percent for the foreseeable future, for the long-term. ramy: expanding this out to the rest of asia, how are you feeling with regards to their trajectories? we know we have been seeing this route over the past year as the dollar has risen. now with the possibility of a pause at the fed, there seems to be some hope. >> absolutely. the key for emerging markets
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equities, this has empirically been the case historically, is the u.s. dollar. emerging-market equities have rarely performed well in u.s. dollar bull markets. if you think since the nixon shock of the early 70's, there have been three u.s. dollar bull markets. each of them has coincided with an emerging market crisis. late 70's was the mexico bond default. 1990's, market of the coincided with the asian financial crisis. this year, we have seen issues in places like turkey and argentina. conversely, absolutely the time to own emerging-market equities has been when the u.s. dollar has been retreating. us most positive thing for is the current u.s. dollar bull market, which started with the dfc, on average u.s. dollar bull
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markets have lasted about eight years. we are coming into our 10th year. by some measures, that is the longest u.s. dollar bull markets as the dollar floated. -- since the dollar floated. haidi: the retreat you are speaking of, we need to things. a detente when it comes to trade, the fed deposit here. are you convinced that both of those factors are going to come in and have that perfect storm for em? >> i don't think that the trade issue is critically important. within emerging markets, there will be beneficiaries of trade issues between china and the u.s.. there will be casualties as well. i don't think a resolution on the -- i don't think there's going to be an easy resolution. importantink that's for emerging markets to outperform. emerging markets can still outperform next year, even if we don't see any improvement in trade tensions.
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the u.s. dollar is important. hikes isy, the rate of very important. the other thing we are looking for, the u.s. economy is very hot right now on a number of measures. there's a business cycle in the u.s., let's not forget it. good times don't last forever. we think there's likely a u.s. recession in the next 18 months. probably right now, if we had to guess, early 2020. haidi: great to have you on with us. you can get around up of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can go on their terminal. the wednesday edition of the great debate, summarizing the fed speakers we've heard so far in taking a look at jay powell speech later on wednesday.
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haidi: this is daybreak asia. let's do a quick check of latest business flash headlines right now. general motors slumped as president trump warned he may terminate subsidies for its electric car program. for gm'setaliation decision to close factories and cut thousands of jobs. he tweeted his anger at the company and its ceo, writing that the u.s. had saved gm in the past and is being repaid with job losses and closures. suisse is close to picking the dread as its coast -- post-brexit trading program. the bank is considering spain as a legal base for majority of its
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is 8:30 in hong kong, one hour away from trading there. clearly, cloudy day in hong kong. a mixed picture when it comes to trading. gains fortrong day of the s&p. here in australia, we are seeing a rainy day. a gloomy day when it comes to trading and equity markets as we thet a speech, adding to scene and a glimmer of optimism that perhaps, the trade at the g20 could be. within the role of possibility within a day between the president she and trump.
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ramy: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: asia." >> president trump will make xi jinping for dinner on saturday as the administration signals further tariffs if there talks do not make progress. economic adviser larry kudlow says the president is open to a deal if the president steps up and introduces new ideas. the president has threatened to hit all chinese imports with new tariffs if there is no agreement. >> certain conditions have to be met if there is no fairness, as we have said, for example, issues of intellectual property theft must be solved. transfers mustgy be solved. tariffs and nontariff barriers must be solved. >> new zealand central bank says
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it will relax these restrictions if the housing market cools. from january 1, banks will be able to make more low deposit home loans to occupiers. they require a -- the required down payment will be lowered. it expects further loosening of lending restrictions in coming years. theresa may launched her brexit tour, with signs that it will be increasingly difficult to pass the house of commons. the prime minister has caved to pressure from parliament. lawmakers are now being allowed to change the terms of the accord and demand a second referendum. may had wanted a second -- a straightforward take it or leave it debate. early indicators from china suggest the economy slowed for a sixth straight month as the trade war drags on growth. the earliest available sign moved toernment
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support households and private companies hasn't been up to lift the economy. weakness of china's major trading partners doesn't help. and facebook is under fire again in the u.k. after mark zuckerberg testified to lawmakers. this prompted the image of an empty chair with the question, where is mark zuckerberg? he has repeatedly refused to appear in the u.k.. facebook send its vice president of policy solutions. global news 24 hours a day over the air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. haidi: thank you. let's take a look at asian markets this morning. sophie.t over to a little positivity, but it is hard to say that we will take this risk appetite and run with it. sophie: that is right.
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it is still early to say. a mixed bag, with little change after earlier gains. this is materials, weighing on both benchmarks. laggards. now leading this morning, given the route we have seen in base metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, they have been on retreat and that has led the gauge of industrial metals to its lowest level since june. this is a potential achilles heel, given concerns around moderating global growth. singapore remains under pressure. we have used diverging from here. watermark.e high goldman sticking to its calls $60-$70 per ton. the correction is mostly behind us. further pressure on market expectations of inflation as measured by u.s. rates.
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we are seeing this outlook for inflation being dimmed by breakeven rates. two-year through 10 year slipping to the lowest levels through this year. to check in on the stock numbers across the region. as it doubless down on financial services, with its partnership with tencent. pharmaseeing nippon jumping as it announced a settlement in the u.s. for bipolar depression drugs. group -- sk group holdings are just under pressure. high rising to a five-week as the company navigates week mobile revenue growth. ramy: sophie kamaruddin with what to watch. let's head to the federal
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reserve, because it's number two policymaker and fred bank -- and fed bank resident, just hours before the president complained loud and long about their policy pass. our editor kathleen hays attended that event and is here. did all of these officials actually speak from the same book? kathleen: they are overall, the fed -- the economy is looking good. inflation is 0.2%. they seem pleased. they seem more rate hikes, but i don't think they're all sure more and more how much they will need to get to neutral. neutral rate is worthy economy is not sped up or slowed down by with the fed fund rate is. particularly with answers to the moderators question in new york, they talked about how the fed -- look at 2015. three years later, we are closer
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to our destination. it becomes a different kind of question. they also said we are assessing the data in two ways. incoming data, what does that tell us about where the economy is? we are also looking at it to try to determine this uncertain neutral rate. where's it? hadhe afternoon, you charlie evans from chicago, kansas city fed, everything is good. charlie evans, the auto industry is plateauing, but things look good. esther george has a strong economy in her district, but she is confirmed -- concerned not only about farmers but the trade war. >> the last several years, farm incomes have been impressed. on top of that, some of the trade issues with china, which will not help at all. overall, good, some sectors are
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suffering. kathleen: they talked more about banking than the economy, however, charlie evans said it is time to get back to something more neutral. again, is that a moving target? maybe we will find out tomorrow. haidi: all of this coming just hours before president trump's latest round of fed bashing. kathleen: donald trump asking about the fed and he gave an interview to the washington post saying he has nothing to do but complain, not even a bill happy with jay powell, the man he selected to be the fed chair. this is one of my favorite quotes. he says, i am not happy with the fed. they are making a mistake, because my gut tells me more than anybody else's gut -- than anybody else's brain can ever tell me. that is some gut.
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he believes the layoff of the gm workers on fed rate heights, he says he is doing deals now and not getting accommodated by the fed. clearly, the fed does not think that is their job. their job is to achieve low inflation and low unemployment. larry kudlow jumping into the fray, chief economic advisor saying trump is just giving his opinion, not trying to break down the wall that guards central bank independence from the white house. moderator, he said, monetary policy is more art than science. there can be differences of ofnion on the destination rate hikes, which the fed itself is debating. jay powell will be giving his prepared remarks. he knows the world is listening and watching. right before the december meeting, we expect a rate hike, but so much has happened, oil prices fell, the trade war continues to get worse, does the fed chair give us any sense that he is taking another look at where 2019 goes?
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you will probably hear more. this is a big one. we will see what he says. haidi: kathleen, thank you so much. kathleen hays with a rapidly fed, looking ahead to wednesday. in the meantime, the los angeles auto show is getting into gear while focus is meant to be on new models from jeep, honda, can they, it is instead on the absence of two major executives. our correspondent can tell us more. ghosn is not here, but also missing is the general motors ceo. monday got that news on about the factory closures, it was about moving away from sedans toward suvs. here at the auto show, that has been the focus. the importance of the suv, the shift in the industry, 2012, 50%
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of the market was sedans, now it is suvs. a number of announcements reflect that. there were suv electric vehicles. ghosnt comes to nissan, is not here, but that highlights that prior to the event, nissan was struggling. the jeep sedan model saw delivery fall by 17% through the year. it struggles to balance volumes, incentivizing by discounts and coming out the other side with profits. the key thing about this auto awayis that consumer ship from sedans toward big suvs. back to you. ramy: ed ludlow in los angeles. the auto industry is giving a close eye on president trump's policy. the latest headline is the possibility the administration will eliminate all subsidies on electric cars. harold kruger spoke at the auto
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show about his own relationship with the white house. think it is well accepted that we're the biggest net exporter in the united states. we have a big footprint in carolina, and we continue that. we are always in dialogue with the administration, which is our business. we are continuing that dialogue with the administration. >> are you going to meet with them anytime soon? there were some reports that you might. harald: we have no official invitation from the white house. we always in dialogue with the administration across the globe. let's talk about another big issue. yesterday, jim came out and said they would be laying off a lot of people. that there isal
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an inflection point for the auto the best maybe that times are over and we're in the beginning of a down cycle? ed: if you look -- harald: if you look at bmw, i remain optimistic. we have momentum in our lifetime in our history. look at 2019 for example, huge momentum for new suvs like the x1, x7, x4. from my perspective, i see growth in the united states. it depends on the strategic direction you are heading with the suv product portfolio we offer for the united states. changes, there will be due to digitalization,
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by -- butation, but we offer 25 electrified models. we're the market leader in electrified vehicles. >> that is also very expensive to do as i should sure you know. -- as i am sure you know. have you thought about culling some of your models, sedans that mina be selling as much? not bens that might selling as much? is that on the table for bmw? in the nextbecause generation, we will show the , we aret the motor show a very successful car in the united states. , weou look, we did already invested heavily in suvs and that is why the new model will come to the market next year. that is why we have these
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products. our product offensive was one bid toward electrification, and the other one was an suv offensive, and you will see more products like the eight series convertible, which will bring tomorrow as well. we are working on the super luxury segment, on the suv offensive and on electrification. for sure, we have investment in the future. we always focus on efficiency and reducing variance, complexity of the project, and saving costs. that was an exclusive interview with the ceo the -- the ceo of bmw, harald krueger. coming up more on asia, this is bloomberg. ♪
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i am ramy inocencio in new york. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts. services andanking rapid penetration of smartphones has led to an explosion of investment in recent years in online lending startup aims to grab the spot in the region's largely untapped financial services market. let's get to singapore and bring in the oriente cofounder. i am interested where you see the biggest opportunity. we talk about this market is being untapped but there are fintech --intech -- startups mushrooming. jeff: we are building the digital infrastructure. over the past year, we had 80 employees, now we are up to 1200.
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we are announcing our first fundraiser of $105 million, led by 3-d biggest conglomerates. three of the biggest conglomerates. we are focused on either credit scoring or lending, we look to change the game to build an entire infrastructure and that is what we have been doing. haidi: you mentioned some of the richest families in the region. how did you get them on board and where they investing so heavily? geoff: i think they saw the opportunity and saw that no one was going to the heart of the problem and that is that the basic infrastructure is broken. lenders lot of these transferring and off-line strategy and putting it online and what that is doing is shifting a high interest rate type of lending online.
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on us, we are focused crating this infrastructure and then we have online, off-line, cash and credit lending. we started in the philippines with 1000 borrowers. 50,000 and we have month we should do over 100,000. that is online and off-line. stores -- or point of sales in the philippines. when you go in the store they will have you done the the app, then buy goods in the store. we have a conference of solution. ramy: to what degree are the andanked at a dissident age where they really across the disadvantage and where are they across the region? lived inhave always developed markets and you think about credit as being a tool you use to get ahead and in these markets, it is basically it put
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you on a treadmill. it makes you go around in circles, so people are being charged 40% a month and no one is able to use this very core, human thing that we have, which is credit. that is very important. this is something we want to unlock. you want to unlock the entrepreneurial spirit and lucky middle-class of these emerging markets get ahead. ramy: i see that you have a couple apps, they are cash flow in the philippines and indonesia. to what degree of these similar to how other banks behave? geoff: i think the most important thing is we have a digital core. one of my other cofounders was cpo ofst cto and cbo -- a very large business in china. we have been building this on a digital core. we're using artificial intelligence, machine learning,
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to help drive rates down. our goal is to drive rates as low as possible. we are not focused on the economics of one barber, we are focused on the entire -- of one borrower, we are focused on the entire market and how we can make credit useful for everybody. haidi: after the significant fund-raising round, how do you plan to deploy the crash -- the cash and do you have an exit strategy? geoff: we will focus on building out our online off-line profits in both of these markets and we'll be launching by year-end in vietnam. when it comes to an exit strategy, our view is we are focused on building this for the long-term. i was one of the cofounders of skype in that experience was important to me. to help people. for us, this is not just about trying to make money. it is about building something
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bloomberg new energy finance joins us. this is great news, but have emerging markets made this much progress? launchedesterday, we the economist report, which measures emerging markets in energy advancements. for the first time ever, emerging markets have and -- have added more renewable energy capacity than fossil fuel capacity. that was slow progress that increased every year and that has led many technology prices and increase in investment in different types of ventures. ramy: what is -- haidi: what is coming number one in the survey?
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rankinghile tops our and this is mainly led by strong increasethat led to an also byy investment and a strong government that is committed to increase and accelerate its power sector. in the second position, for the first time, we have india, which policies,clean energy especially clean energy targets. also competitive renewable energy markets that have transformed in one of the economic efforts. haidi: think you so much for
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that. luiza demoro from bloomberg new energy finance in shanghai. before we head over to "bloomberg markets: asia," let's take a glimpse at the trading at the moment. we are optimism, although it is early to see if this will go into the weekend, where we will get this dinner date june president xi and president trump. trade will be top on the agenda. the s&p sydney here soggy, much like the weather. ramy: let's do a quick check of asian features. we are taking a look at the sei, futures up by one quarter percent. we're handing it off to the next hour of the show, this is bloomberg. don't go away. ♪
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>> not cot a.m. in hong kong and shanghai. , thep stories this morning look to the weekend. investigators are weighing the chance of a trade route inverness are us. >> president trump is said to be open to a deal at the g20, but the white house insists the they will have to step up. joining tencent on the line. ♪
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