be a ceiling. we could operate somewhat above percent. of clarida.c putinn president vladimir paved the way for production cuts. win.'s g20 president trump tweets china will reduce and remove car import tariffs. stays mute. market goes full risk on. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: alix field.m preparingapital is for a presidential funeral on wednesday. passed away bush friday night at age 94.

markets will be closed on wednesday to honor the late president. here, it is ats true risk on rally day after the g20. futures sitting at 2800. euro dollar not lot of movement. was a weaker story. you're seeing euro dollar is how trades. u.s. treasuries yield moving time inor the first days. ny crude is up 4%. it's biggest jump on a closing basis. that's after wrapping up its worse week since 2008. to kevin cirilli bloomberg chief washington correspondent. a road map for president george bush. an arrivalll be ceremony at about 4:45 p.m.

involving both members of the and senate on capitol hill. then the president will lay inside of the capital rotunda where members of the public may bid their farewell through wednesday morning. following that, his funeral held at the be national cathedral about 11:00 a.m. on wednesday. beyond that, he will then have his casket and remains flown to texas where he will have st. martinneral at episcopal church in texas and at his presidential library. the president declared national day of mourning. signaled to congressional leaders that he will be willing two week extension of the government funding bill so the nation can continue to of george h. w. bush. .> thank you very much george h. w. bush legacy a

leading off the bloomberg first take. what strikes to me is how outlookt, mike, that for tax under president bush versus where it is now. called the tax cuts economic voodoo. >> that was on the campaign trail in 1980. changed his public stance the viceecame presidential candidate. he made the famous read my lips pledge. the deficit started to get wider. wall street started to get worried. put together a budget summit at andrew's air force leaders. democratic the president agreed what will

revenue enhancers. nobody forgot there were tax increases. way, it's unin our because raisingeagan started taxes. they called him the revenue enhancer. because of the read my lips pledge. it became identified with george h. w. bush. only that, when you take a look at president clinton, we deficit,out the budget that was because president bush went again own in new taxes. >> they started leveling off the revenue.n government bill clinton raised taxes. that's when we got the first had insurplus that we'd many years during the clinton administration. taxes went up. we have a chart that shows that there. you can see the red box is where presidency, the line is the reagan tax cuts. you can see how revenue and spending diverged tremendously

there. the red box is george h. w. presidency. you can see it bottomed out just after his term because they had taxes. to raise you can see the white line go up again. that was the bill clinton tax then we had that in the green circle, the budget which unfortunately, did not last. you can see what happened when george h. w. bush's son came to cut taxes. >> do you know what's youresting, how different 20 or 30 years, tax cuts supposed to extend the taxes >> it's a different climate on a number of fronts. you think about the trade situation that's a perfect and the sequence of trade and how we've changed over years.rse the last 30 during the reagan-bush administration there was a lot of trade issues. the early part of the reagan administration. that slowed significantly. on much moreg friendly nation overtime to use

version of a george h. w. bush quote. is anothert trade big issue for the republican party has shifted or seem to given theed on just rhetoric that comes out of washington now. it is definitely a different today than it was 20 or 30 years ago. i think that polarization is another huge issue. are considering where we during george h. w. bush presidency. moderatensidered republican. look at where we are now. as a is no such thing moderate in washington. for clinton. here. want a quick irony the "new york times" tracked phrase. coined that it was young economist in the reagan administration called larry kudlow. >> that's interesting.

fed.ext story that is the rich clarida talking about how good the economy is. gina as market participant, do you look at devilish or hawkish fed? that over the last from a hawkish fed to a less hawkish fed. we'll see where we go over the several weeks. if you look at how the markets futures, we've taken out full hike over the last couple of weeks. startingt is clearly to adjust their expectations. for a fed that likely continues rates, ornterest perhaps at a less consistent less rapid pace than we've the last year.r it's still hawkish. policy.ill tightening it's perhaps less tight than we were anticipating. what, irony, no matter we're still underpricing hikes for next year.

back,f the fed dials we're still pricing one. is that like a risk of that here to be had? >> sure. friday we have the jobs report. 300,000pens if you get jobs? that was september. obviously the economy has since the last that came out. an easyhas moved from to explain we're going to be raising rates because we're at zero posture to now we're getting close to where neutral is. know exactly where it is. the -- watch the data closely. it's really hard to make a blanket statement that they're going to raise rates x number of times. >> tra leads to us to our third story. g20. is the trump tweeting that china agreed

to reduce tariffs on cars coming from the u.s. it's 40%. we look at the weekend and then have a less hawkish fed. did we just remove two big head winds. >> we removed three. you got opec as well. coming out ofents canada suggesting there's cost oil producing nation. those are the three characters fed,really created the trade and oil are the three policy sort of measures that really needed to happen to come in place to create a risk on rally. we'll get that. we suggested last week we'll get to 2800 this week pretty easily. whether or not we can move forward, will largely depend on economic data. see disablization in economic data? rally. a real this is the santa claus rally. andou go back to the summer start with sequence of events that created the down trend, it

started with trade and then it the fed and then oil prices. we've now started to incrementally move in a much more bullish stance on all three. >> what happens in february, out february when it turns there was no deal. they may not reach a deal and we the sanctions back? >> the market is presuming there be nothing. if you look at how much china plummeted. everything in the market underperformed by least double the market itself. we're presuming we have that priced in. getting back to 2800 doesn't in trade resolution, it prices out the 25% tariff that was supposed to happen on january 1st. when you go forward, we will the some starts here, but market was saying this is going to be end of the world with trade. to now get these incremental baby steps, it will be back and forth. will not be a perfect environment. >> really great conversation.

very much.oth we have breaking news for you happening today. dealribune media that $6.4 billion. it looks they will be divesting to --v stationings s.ations with regulator next star buying tribune for $6.4 billion. glaxo down in the premarket. 57%.boost there up by $5.1 billion.ed

market toeviving $2.7 billion. justing their marketing ebit guidance. it has impacted financial sentiments. on aluminum and they lowered their view for that reason. part of that is the china and fields. that stock up 2.5%. not to hike. hike more on what federal reserve says on thehair approach to modern trade policy. up next.ming this is bloomberg. ♪

>> hitting inflations target fed clarida said the numbers doesn't have to be a ceiling. >> we have objective around two percent. percent.ed below two we can operate somewhat above two percent. now is ryane weinstein. -- what do you make? in policy bakely. the fed is trying to manage the and keep things going as long as they can. couple of years ago we were at zero. it was easy to say rates would go up. now you're at a point we don't where normal neutral is. we look month to month, data data point.

all those interest rate increases will start hitting the year.y this they may have already started. we're seeing some effects in housing. they know whether they've gone too far, they have to make -- judgments. pay attentiono like we do. >> be patient. is what i tell my 4-year-old daughter. is talking about, mutual rates where the fed rates is. bute not far from neutral the bottom man of neutral we're not far from. 3% is the floor? thee think that notes in quarter percent range is about where they should be. when we travel around, the one question is where are interest rates going. stop being afraid of interest rates. happens.part rates. raised

we haven't been priced far from those rates. people, we don't love 3% economic growth slows you should. 3.5 will be a great buying opportunity. fear of duration is closer to the end than beginning. it a bull steeper trade? >> it's probably early for a bull steeper trade. is the fedk about done and is the fed will start rates down. we think the feds is looking to raise rates just more slowly. if the fed pauses or if the forced into a pause by market data accelerates and they fall behind the curve, the curve steepen. >> mike, he supposed to speak in wednesday.n what would provide any clarity, different from what he

said last week? >> they don't know. going to go into december with a rate hike baked in because they've already said and they can't disappoint the market. i suppose jake could come out if say, we'vetify, changed our mind. that's pretty much in the market. after that, it's going to be watching the employment reports, watching the average early earnings and watching inflation figures. the market is going to have to usede it out the way they to do like 10 or 15 years ago. go. have to learn as they alix: entirely true. big trump. is does that start to bite? >> yields is oval 1%. people assumed that the fed was inflationtes that will be a problem, in nominal will go up.

we're getting towards places that are bit more restricted. bites.nitely if you can get 1.5% yield return that's going to take capital out. we're seeing it. about it in speak real yield turns. can get three, four percent coupon. havecash and real yields value, takes money out of other places in the capital markets economy. down the interesting is --lation examineses in the expectations in the market is going down. yield or of those real inflation expectations are telling the story where the economy is going. one or the other. may helpbe saudis that. options forwindling

deutsche bank. isney laundering affecting the turnarounds of the bank.

alix: there's been a harrowing week for deutsche bank after the headquarters over hundred dearing -- money laundering. joining now from bloomberg office is patrick barnett joining us there. what have we learned about who -- implicate so implicated so far >> first the good news, there's rates over the weekend. currently there's police no more the deutsche bank headquarters. deutsche bank said that no one was interrogated by the prosecutors.

the second thing that we learned gave tointerview he newspapers in germany. involvedhe's not personally as he mentioned now. the bankaid that looked at the papers when they came out in 2016 and considered matter closed. theaises the questions that bank did not look close enough or there were forces outside the helped conceal the issue. alix: what kind of options this gives him going forward? think there are not too many options for him. the whole thing is once again, weighing on the sentiment towards deutsche bank. sharedobably depress the price for longer. the bank cannot focus on its turn around. only thing he can do is they will take the necessary steps to make sure it is not happening

again. probably maybe he has to remove some people in management to aow the market there's change. consideringoment the week it had last week. thank you so much. with me here is brian weinstein investmenttanley management. my question for you is on the ecb front. the ecb.s at what are you thinking? >> i think he's hoping it goes away. they want these programs intercept to wind down the programs. japan, the fed doesn't want to go this alone. it will be great for the global in europe canth -- enough.ou have he has to be worried. you have problem in italy that in banks.r at the end of the day we think banks done the right

thing. to growth,it comes around 50.g right do you buy btbs here? news is in the price. the trade was easy for a long got difficultit again. you're still in that difficult stage. it's very hard to have an edge you're trying to guess whether or not the ecb or the political system would change first. our view is we still want to be cautious. ways to bether bullish on europe banks without italian buying the market. alix: what about corporate credit. pulled $5 billion worth of funds last week. issuance was pulled. is there value there? >> the been brutal in corporate bonds. this widening isn't new. part is focus on the

corporate market. it's not. people borrowed money at lower rates. problem.see it as a there isolated incidents. me, there's been more passive investing. people buying are not thinking it.t as active investors we are. company.iple b we're buying ones that will deleverage in time. alix: that don't sound promising. brian weinstein sticking with us. forng up, bullish side crude. saudi and russia agree to extend and what iteal price.or longer term ♪

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the question become the reality versus rhetoric. last?ng can this rally it's going to be hard to make that case today. up 4800 points. higher.s stocks are europe.igher in trump tweeted if china rolls back tariffs on u.s. imports, affecting the german car makers. in other classes here, it is a story with the exception from the safe haven currencies. it's a calm bid when it comes to euro dollar up. european pmi's falling. ofll question marks out italy. one of the currents that are weaker is cable. weekend a labor spokesman said no confidence motion will be inevitable. more volatility and more brexit drama. the u.s.yields here in

is up five bases points. 4% off the highs of the session. sinceg back is worse week the financial crisis. let's get update outside the business world. >> president trump called his weekend trade truce with china's xi jinping. there are plenty of question about this. agreed to postpone tariff increase on chinese goods for three months. tweeted thatmp china has agreed to remove on american-made cars. jumped offf oil saudi arabia and russia extended their agreement to manage the market. deal atns the door for in vienna.eek november was the worst month for prices in a decade. will leave opec

next month in move to threaten the price of oil prices. on its naturalus gas production. plus opec's largest member, trade andia has cut transport ties with qatar in the past 18 months. news 24 hours a day and tictoc on twitter. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you so much. in.ia stays russian president vladimir putin extension of his deal after he met with the saudi crown prince mohammed bin salman. but today with saudi arabia, we and whatever number it will be base on this joint decision. we agree it will monitor the market and react to quickly. what did that statement mean

from president putin in light of opec meeting? >> the corporation agreement will continue. it's not then the corporation right now.have ended they would continue to monitor markets through next year. important forery the market to realize this does dealean that there's a yet. volumes haven't been agreed on. that is still being negotiated. alix: great point. look at the countries that are ramped up production from june to now, huge amount of that is going to be u.s., saudi and russia with all three pumping right around the record. much?ll cut and by how >> i think that point is you can't include the u.s. over here. they are not a part of the opec class. be saudi arabia,

pretty much every opec country contribute as to non-opec country which is russia. is what is being ironed out the ecb off opec has recommended a cut of a day.llion that is what they see the market as.g over supplied distribution is yet to be agreed upon. alix: what is being priced as and how at the curve it's rerated in the last couple weeks? >> the market is expecting and maybeillion slicing more. that's why i do worry. given that we have quite close to the meeting and we don't have numbers and the relationship between the u.s. and saudi arabia, i wouldn't be surprised if they do walk away from vienna without a deal. this doesn't mean they don't cut

production. they don't want an over supply market. cut quietly. i'm not sure we'll get a big sixth.ement on the alix: what's the downside for that? >> if you don't gate very clear message, i think we can definitely trade $5 even $10 lower. rallied on the trade between xi jinping and trump. i think that's the risk. opec do know they're working a cut. but i also there are lots of challenges. alix: other part that was interesting over the last 24 canada, after alberta coming in. talk about how unprecedented something like that in a non-opec world? >> of course. completely unprecedented as you

say. $12.gain, u.s. prices were i think that's what really prompted this move. say is thatwill there are lot of details that needs to be taken into consideration. cut is from the highest production level by company achieved over the last 12 months. the volume taken off the market from current level is not that much. it's on about 150,000-barrels a day. increase be allowed to production because cut becomes only 95,000-barrel days. government trying to do is run down the inventories which is about an excess of 30 to 40 million barrels then keep production in line with infrastructure. we all know that pipelines are a big problem in canada. clearly, it's hurting them immensely.

alix: $50 in october. turning brian to your world, the fed,take a look at not a pause but they're chilling out. you take g20 and you take oil prices that might find some but not spike. is this a total risk on trade? the rally to stay here? >> you have to be little careful. okaylieve that growth is but that is not going to crash the economy. bullish.rm we are you get these knee jerk reactions, you probably done lot term pricing in. we're not out the woods. we really need is signs there's growth somewhere besides u.s. stable.u.s. has to be we need china to grow. we need some growth somewhere states.the united alix: does that job get easier or harder? >> i think it got easier. didn't get harder.

we have a 90-day pause which seems far away. it's not. work foring the ground data driven.'re that's a big step. we need to see economic growth follow through. alix: what was interesting when putin and salman meet act the g20. you didn't have putin meeting with them. you saw trump walk by. theis that confusing to say least? >> this is why i would think how do they come out and say we're cut production. the risk always that's going to verytweet, trump made it clear he wants low oil prices. right nowrelationship between saudi arabia and the u.s., the risks are if there's a we're going tog cut x, there will be some repercussions. i think that's what makes this meeting so complicated. fundamentally, i think omechanic -- opec know what to do.

the complication is can they communicate that? it's notthat point, just tweeting anymore. there's legislation that's rejected by president. maybe this time it will be different which will call on sanctions for the cartel. walk me through where that is in now? >> i think that's absolutely a it's not lotause of other bills pushed fard by the congress. risk is that with opec, if it does come in front sign it. he might risk for mymes real middle eastern producer to have the u.s. torts in continue operating because risk is they can get sued. that would redefine the relationship between saudi tobia and u.s. when it comes

oil markets. opec in terms how they continue the u.s.iness with alix: taking a more historical perspective here in the u.s., we're focused on the passing of george h. w. bush. the 1991 persian gulf war changed the world oil dynamics. what's the biggest shift you see in middle east oil policy from to now? very much iraq war is not just the 1991 and then 2000's. the in some ways, you could argue that one of the reasons why we seen iraqi production really struggle, otherwise they could leveleen close to saudi $10 million a day, has been very policy ind by u.s. the middle east, very much started 1991. definitely redefined the region and particularly opec levels.on

alix: always great to catch up with you. in vienna.ll be brian weinstein of morgan management.stment thank you. that's looketoo how like vice president avoid women at all cost. we'll discuss that next. is bloomberg. ♪.

>> this is "bloomberg daybreak: americas." coming up, former trade representative, this is bloomberg. thee's a big take over in

u.s. local tv industry. agreed to buy tribune $6.4 billion. the deal would create the localy's largest owner of television stations. agreed to buyine massachusetts drug maker tesaro. tumbled last month after the company disclosed trialointing chemical results. bloomberg has learned that apple hold off until if meets a networke offering set to be introduced next year. easier foray make it why some to win over customers. with 3gd the same thing .nd 4g networks alix: we turn to wall street beat. occupy jamie diamond.

target number of diffist the ceo.st targeted era,street approach #metoo the vice president to avoid women. start jamie diamond. limbctivist who trail aroun--him around the world. man standingast from the global financial crisis. moving on and handing over the reigns. the guy who reall street.bodies wall they are going after him. >> that line jumped out at me. overall wall street and ceos on wall street are asked to get issues. more on these

climate change is a mega issue. money inire ton of investment in order to solve the issues. turning to people on wall street. alix: it's not like occupy wall in that they want him fired or like they want his salary. more like we want you to be activist for like climate change and energy oil. >> it's interesting they are making the connections to you to this type of company. the not just jamie dimon, story points to jeff bezos the cross hairs larry fink. he's even more influential. shareholder. >> it has become an issue with some of the providers. been saying, have there's giant shareholders in lot of these company. but it's harder if the index

players. in some ways, they have certain basedies in their index cap.rket does.i wonder what jamie he kind of wants to. does he hold back? thee does hold back most of time. which is impressive. jamieally if you know dimon. he goes little bit on the defense. there's an anecdote in the story about how he did shut down one protester. said you need to go to south bronx. considering anow special surveillance program. what would that look like? it's a little big brotherry in terms how it reads. of detailt a lot

about what exactly they will be doing with it. theink the take away is fact that technology could be the leverage that companies need. we're seeing so many more companies become so global. one of the risks is that you don't have your finger on the pulse in each little office all around the world. problems can pop up. but technology goes all around the world pretty fast. an element to harkens back to the days like the in asia.t banker over just get the business, we're not going to ask any questions. era has passed. alix: now you have to ask questions and have audio and make sure you're track all your sales. >> it's compliant. aese are rules that exist for reason. i do think that probably for a gonef these people who into the field-in into the probablyas it were like good old days. does you mentioned, it

raise the question how does of this?et out >> i think we're seeing lot of the banks deutsche bank being where the spotlight doesn't leave you quickly once you had a giant compliance problem. goldman is trying to go to regulators. here.e an issue here's what we're doing and trying to fix it. >> it's also really good point in terms how long it will last. you think about what's happening bank.eutsche they're now dealing all over again. go away.ngs do not alix: that wasn't like yesterday. here with the #metoo era. an't ever be alone with woman, ever. them even have dinner with >> this the number one most read story on bloomberg already. of hours ago.uple your team worked on it. it's amazing reporters who the

did it. there's a lot of good things that have come from the metoo issues. people are being more aware. one of the potential backlashes that thisative side story talk about is whether or forwomen will be iced out some of the things in terms of fearfulntially being wrong.ght do something it should be a private meeting and they leave the door open. nature.f that >> it's amazing too. leads play this out, it from potential sexual harassment to ultimately sexual discrimination. if you're going overboard the other way. alix: great article. thanks so much. jason onune into business week on bloomberg radio daily from 2:00 to 5:00 p.m. eastern time. turning back to washington, the nation is mourning the death of 41st president george h.

w. bush. his buy will lie in state at the u.s. capitol beginning today. funeral will be held on wednesday at national cathedral to texas.ing back bush senior is celebrated by democrats and republicans for his charm and integrity and having little time for haters. joining us to discuss the legacy 41st is president who knows washington. al hunt. bloomberg opinion columnist. great pleasure to speak with you today. in, you wroteg over the weekend which talk about bush is celebrated by republican and democrats. was inclusive and there's no bushl respect between family and president donald trump. changed?he party >> the change began in the 1/9/80s. -- 1980's.there's always been a.

what started in the 1980's was really a hard edge, a meanness if you will and an attack dog mindset. started with newt gingrich. bush wasn't capable of hating. there was more than a few people who i think that is the trademark of donald trump. that's a profound change. alix: to your point, newt giftich, it knelt like the from the tax cut economic policy that basically bush did not with calling it voodoo to having to hike tax. turning point dividing the republican party. taxes, that was so prevalent in his campaign. he to reverse and the damage that was done. walk us how that set the stage for the next decade? >> it did. there are couple of interesting that. about people often forget reagan also came back and increased taxes after his tax cut. reagan was able to get away with it because he was ronald reagan

the conservatives they don't on ronald reagan. bush did it and really if you it, lot of economic bush'sans think that budget deal ushered in the boom 1990's.the it began with bush. politically. alix: that really shows the domesticso between his team and foreign policy team. lot of people might not remember foreignngth of his policy in comparison to his domestic agenda. all we remember he didn't know milk back in the election campaign in 1992. talk to us about that look at his national security team, jim baker, state and dick cheney,the earlier dick it was a strongest foreign policy team in our lifetime. to you, tell me about

his domestic team. draw a blank. budgetoned earlier the deal which i think was incredibly important policy matter. also, under george h. w. bush, he enacted the americans disabilitieses acts. which was the most civil rights action. alix: al, illustrate how far we have come from. voted forw. bush clinton and not donald trump. a momentous shift in the republican party >> i will be stunned if there the bushmembers of family that voted for donald trump. that.t know there's tremendous -- there's animosity. trump.n't respect they resent trump's really on them. attacks just couple of months ago he went after montana and said,

points of life, what is that? mocking.ng fun and trump likes to do that whereas, bush was incapable of intentionally hurting people. campaigns did. let's not glorify everything. not a88 campaign was model of civility. alix: that's a great point. really appreciate your perspective after decades of covering politics. hunt, thank you very much. stay with bloomberg television bloomberg radio as we president.the place, the xfinity xfi gateway.

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objective around two percentage, not meant to be a ceiling. we could operate somewhat above 2%. chair richardce curtis says the fed could operate above a 2% inflation goal. president trump tweets china will reduce and remove car import tariffs. that 94.uys 94.ident george -- dies at present george h.w. bush oversaw the collapse of communism in eastern europe. welcome to bloomberg. i am alix steel. david westin is off today. he is getting ready to head to washington, d.c. for a presidential funeral on wednesday. flats are being flown at half staff for the next 30 days to honor former president george

herbert walker bush. he passed at the age of 94. markets are open today. that is a risk on field throughout the equity market. dow jones futures up by triple digits. s&p over 1%. well the rally last? euro-dollar a little stronger. the dollar is mostly weaker. shifting into canadian dollar, aussie dollar. the risk on field. crude is up 3%. a potential opec cut story. it is also about potentially qatar leaving and about trade. last effect is coming into the commodity market. for what we can expect over the next several days in d.c., kevin cirilli joins us now.

walk us through what we are going to need to see over the next 72 hours in d.c. as we prepare for the funeral of president george h.w. bush. kevin: there will be an arrival ceremony on capitol hill with members of the house and senate. openthere there will be an public ceremony viewing of the president. his body will lay in casket at the capital. 7:30 thisbegin around evening until wednesday morning. from there until 11:00 a.m., there will be that national cathedral funeral service for him. the present and first lady expected -- president and first lady expected to attend. the former president expected to have a second service at saint matthews episcopal church in houston. the president declaring wednesday a national day of

mourning. he has said he would be open to a two-week extension. the government runs out of funding to avert that shutdown on friday. alix: thank you very much. lasting legacys continues to be remembered by members of his former administration. >> the way he managed the end of the cold war so that it ended with a whimper and not a bang is incredible. look at the other things along the way, the unification of nato, the a member of coalition he put together to reverse iraq's aggression in kuwait, ending the wars in central america. >> he was a remarkable man. of course, i was his second choice as secretary of defense. i was asked to take the job

after his original nominee failed. it was a tremendous privilege to be asked to join the team. >> everything he did in public life was always directed to helping the american people. he was a patriot. he demonstrated that in war and peace. he was the most qualified person with respect to foreign policy to ever serve as president of the united states. deborah served under the bush administration as deputy assistant trade representative to china. with us is carla hill, ambassador hill served as trade dress presented in -- trade representative for the bush administration. what is your lasting memory of the bush presidency? experiencedas so and understanding, that he wanted to reach out to other

nations, that he never stood on a platform and boasted. modest and unassuming. the most qualified person to serve in that office. envoy to china, experience in congress, he brought real knowledge of government and foreign policy. alix: talking about foreign policy, so much happened in those four years. the fall of communism in eastern europe, the collapse of the soviet union, desert storm is what we are all going to be thinking about. he had to deal with a true fundamental shift in the foreign geopolitical landscape. >> i think it was his mannerism that he did not try to post. he cautioned -- boast. he cautioned his team when the wall fell in berlin not to boast.

let's try to reach out. , heaid in his inaugural wanted to have a kinder and gentler nation. you take china, where he had real experience. square, henmen quietly sent a representative to repair the damage. kuwait.k about when saddam hussein invaded kuwait, he stopped that. he was effective. he did what he said he would do, and he kept the united nations membership on his side. we have so much to be grateful for. alix: having worked for president bush as well, the 43rd president, what changed? how did president h dubya bush h.w. bush serve and change? >> i was working under president

hw bush. he was instrumental in reestablishing our relationship with china. he launched the first major trade agreement wherever had with china, which investor held hill- ambassador negotiated. there were other issues that needed to be addressed. president 43 bush was able to build on that was able to build on that with treasury secretary hank paulson. tox: deborah, if you were transpose president george h.w. bush into current times, how would things be handled differently?

>> what i admired at the time was he understood it was important to have a balance. he was able to be tough with the chinese and very direct. they appreciated his candor. he was able to balance it with other interests we had. at the time, we sold supplies to taiwan. it was controversial. there are many in the administration that thought it would be the downfall of our relationship with china. because the chinese understood the politics, he was able to manage both of those. i think going forward, if he were involved now, i think he would still be very supportive of an aggressive trade policy with china, but he is very strategic. he would be looking forward to the kind of relationship we want to have with china, not just in trade, but how we look at resolving major common interests like north korea. there is obviously no love

ost between the bush's and president trump. in your experience dealing with president bush, what was his biggest regret when it came to foreign policy? what was the thing he did not get to? >> i don't have a list of regrets. i think we missed his balanced approach. when he worked with china, he created the basis for moving ahead with them. you asked what might he do differently. i think he would join with our eyes in talking with -- allies in talking with the chinese about our differences. i think that would make a difference. i don't see any regrets. his policy toward our neighbors was absolutely perfect. we are so blessed to have

neighbors north and south that are friendly and work with us not only on economic issues, but security and humanitarian issues. he was the leader in making that happen. alix: do you think that policy and the way he handled things could be applicable to the world today after 2008, after the crisis when we have so much for left or far right political parties gaining traction all over the world? >> is interesting you asked that question. you know, president bush spoke of unity between the executive and legislative branches on foreign policy. he said it was so important to present the united front to the rest of the world. i think he said in his inaugural address, where at least in some end at our differences the water's edge. he used to have lunch with the

other side of the political aisle, the democrats. he had many friends he could work with on the other side of the isle. we need to re-create that -- aisle. we need to re-create that. alix: thank you very much for sharing your experiences with george h.w. bush. you will be staying with us. coming up, we are looking at traded t-20. trump tweeted that farmers will be a beneficiary of our deal with china. we make the finest include us product in the world. cleanest products in the world. you can see that in the market. is that trade truce for real? what are going to be the sticking points for the u.s. and china? more on the outcome from the g20 next. this is bloomberg. ♪ rg. ♪

alix: a u.s.-china cease-fire. both sides agreeing to discuss their issues. china says they will boost u.s. imports. still on the phone with us is ambassador carla hills. thank you. we just had a tweet from president trump saying they are going to buy so much soy beans. pharmas, i got this trade deal for you. do you believe it? the chinese are willing to make significant purchases. they have voiced that all along.

they did feel that was one of the issues they needed to address for president bush -- i'm sorry, president trump it there are a number -- president trump. there are a number of issues that are going to be a lot more challenging. question, raises the you can see it in the side-by-side comparisons between the statements side-by-side of china and the u.s.. the u.s. is very focused on structural changes. property, focus on markets. what you make of it? >> i think that each is expressing what they took from the agreement that occurred at the dinner. the good news for all of us is that there is a truce. i hope very much that we can solve the differences in the next 90 days.

i think if we work with our allies, we will have a chance to be successful. alix: speaking of working with allies, it is also who is going to be in charge of negotiations. a white house aide said robert lighthizer will leave those negotiations. how significant is that? >> traditionally, the u.s. trade representative is the lead for u.s. negotiations. it has only been an aberration. it has been led first by commerce and then treasury. it will certainly be an interagency team. it does make sense that ambassador by kaiser would be ambassador robert lighthizer would be the head of those negotiations. alix: one of the metrics we are going to be looking at over the next 90 days to gauge whether or not we are going to be in a trade war in march?

>> we have a number of differences with china. we have to get those fixed. it is not just us. , all of thellies g20 are suffering from forced transfer of technology, the failure to give national treatment to the discrimination against inward investment. we need to sit down with china and to work out how they are going to address these issues. the wto is a market organization. china has agreed to abide by its basic principles. if they do abide by them, it is in china's interest. it will dance their economy. there is a deal to be made. let's see if we can get it done. alix: there is a deal to be made, but, is the phrase.

if i want to invest in china, what do you tell me today? >> it is what the ambassador said. momentumeated positive coming out of this dinner. that is a good thing. u.s. investment in china is up. it is a good time for u.s. investors to be investing in china. china in its own interest is already taking steps for further market access. they have announced several significant steps already. president xi is supposed to be giving a big speech to announce further market opening. i think it is a very good time. ahead, there are going to be continued challenges in the trade area, even if we get through this next 90 days and are able to reach some sort of

agreement. it would not be a surprise to see the administration caps on on those 10%kept to keepfor the u.s. pressure on the chinese. it is not a bad thing for the chinese. it has enabled them to push through reforms that they have been trying to make for the last 10 to 15 years but they have not been able to because of vested interests. alix: interesting point. thank you. joining me is laura kane. we are already fading the rally a little bit. s&p futures are well off of the highs. do you buy today? >> overall, we think the outcome of the trade talks is a positive

for the market. i would say the fact that the worst-case scenario risk has diminished, that is certainly something that gives us more confidence, but we are continuing to monitor the situation closely because a lot of what happened so far is symbolic. we don't have a lot of numbers yet. we will monitor the situation and see how the rest of the trade talks on full. autos are going to rally today. you're going to have the ags rally because of the trump tweet. how do you think individual sectors are going to be wrapped up in tweets? >> for us, what we were more concerned about was the indirect effect on sentiment, and how that could translate to business spending decisions and other parts of the economy more so than the direct impact of trade. rally, see some sectors but we are monitoring more in terms of what the broader impacts will be in terms of a relief of global growth fears.

alix: laura kane of ubs will be sticking with me. is it a new help for qualcomm and nxt? they will consider a new deal if it is brought again. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

alix: we look at three companies worth watching this morning. kicking it off with apple. apparently, they are well behind the 5g shift. >> this is interesting. they have done this in the past with 3g and 4g. they waited. part of it was let's work out the technology kinks. when people get the phones, they will be what they are supposed to be. this time they might be missing out, and the delay might have something to do with the feud with qualcomm and whether they are able to get 5g enabled chips

in time to compete with samsung 2019. alix: i definitely want my 5g. next are is going to buy tribune media for $4.1 billion. it is a tv megadeal. betribune was supposed to purchased by sinclair. to end overd backwards to enable that deal. we saw that deal fall apart. step up tonexstar the plate. it seems like they should have a smoother path. you should be able to learn from sinclair's mistakes. they are paying a higher price than sinclair did. qualcomm,ping up with apparently ruling

out another deal. of thoses one concessions that is easy to make because it is probably not that realistic. at this point qualcomm has moved on. it has started a $21 billion buyback program. it was using cash that was earmarked for nxt to do that. i think at this point, each company is looking at different options. i don't see this. alix: could i get the billion back? it does leave the question of outbound or inbound into china. does that conversation change? >> i think it does. it was interesting china's reaction when they were trying to hedge their bets and claim that they were sorry they could not have more time to look at it. now they seem to be admitting this was political. this have to do with the trade

war. we would be willing to reconsider this. that does reopen the door to m&a specifically for nxp. there has been talk of a revived deal. would anybody have the guts to step up and try for a deal?that could open the door for deal, maybe not with qualcomm. alix: thank you very much. coming up, the fed inflation goal. rich claritin discussing how much inflation the u.s. economy can really bear. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. i am alix steele. the risk on rally still lives.

after a soft week last week. european stocks higher. dax outperforming. part of that and auto story. it is a mixed g10 dollar story. you have savings in currencies and the cable rate coming off of it. it is the high-yield risk on currencies like the canadian dollar and aussie dollar that are performing. european pmi fell to about 50. in the u.s., you want to sell anything that is safety oriented. off the highs of the session. crude having a monster rally on a closing basis. sinces the biggest rally 2016. mbs talking about working together over the weekend. you have qatar leaving opec. you have a potential resolution

to the g20. oil cost in the midst of all that. let's check out what is going on outside the business world. >> president trump has agreed to postpone a planned tariff hike on chinese good for three months. president xi jinping promised china would buy more american products. remain on difficult issues such as intellectual property. jumped today after their worst month in a decade. saudi arabia and russia agreed to extend their agreement to manage the market. canada's largest oil-producing market alberta ordered unprecedented output cuts. of theu.s., the remains late president george h.w. bush will be flown to washington, where he will lay in state

before being returned to texas. mr. bush died friday night. he was 94. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you. federal reserve vice chair richard claritin sounds optimistic about the u.s. economy and that it can tolerate inflation above 2%. he talked about trade and the feds path to rate hike. >> trade is an important part. i don't think we are going there. trade is an important part of the global economy. i think the u.s. economy is in good shape. we can talk about risky scenarios. i think the outlook is solid. tom: within trade, is the idea of exports and imports to america, how does the fed policy

relate to these political debates? do you feel in the future it will be more removed and sterile monetary policy? >> i am not going to get into the politics. fed policy is important to making sure that the us economy achieves maximum employment and price stability. we are focusing on what we need to do with our tools to achieve that mandate. alix: chairman powell -- tom: chairman powell focused on financial stability. should that be a mandate? >> the way i think about financial stability, it is important. the fed has an important role in supervision. if we achieved for stability and full employment, that will contribute to financial stability. tom: do we need a new regime at the fed that looks at the combination of real economic growth and price change? >> i think the fed has a

framework that has been in place since 2012. i think it is serving the fed well. a lot has changed since 2012. john williams emphasized we are in a world of low equilibrium riskless rate. there is less room for conventional monetary policy. central banks need to be just as concerned about people in that keeping inflation at target as above target. we have announced that the federal reserve system will be -- an assessment seeking input from a wide range of stakeholders and experts. still with me on set is laura and michael mckee. i feel like this week is the fed

deluge. everything out there so nothing gets caught in the foreground. we don't know what the economy is going to look like in 2019. michael: going into december, that rate hike is baked in. they are not going to disorient the markets. 2019 is going to be data dependent. said today that we don't know by 2019 whether the economy is going to be very different. the tailwinds we have gone from the tax cuts are going to start to fade. we've got 90 days to see what will happen with trade. we don't know what is got to happen with a government shutdown because that is going to be postponed for a couple weeks. a lot of risk factors, not to mention europe and italy. the fed does not know. it was easy to say we are going to raise rates one rates are at

zero. now that you are close to neutral, they want to take it step by step. alix: there is a wide divergence on strategist estimates for the s&p next year. 50, below islike 33 2750. how can you possibly make a call on the markets next year? >> you think growth for the s&p next year is going to be impacted by growth in the u.s.. there could be some uncertainty. we see a lot of positive signs. leading indicators around bank lending survey, business spending intentions. consumers are being supported by strong wage growth. we see a strong economic picture heading into next year. if you take out the risk of very high and very low oil prices for a second, if you take

out a data dependent fed, trade tensions that might not get worse, are we in for an upside surprise? >> some of the growth that we are seeing seems to be overdone. ofhink the relief in terms oil market prices ahead that have fallen to fast to quickly should help to ease some of those fears. same thing on the growth fears. we will see less skittishness globally as a result of that. alix: this dovetails what we hear from the administration. steve mnuchin saying there were specific things that they were andsing on in terms of auto agriculture. if we sustain the headwinds, do we keep the sugar high? haveel: if we actually

specific methodical things. the administration has said that. they don't say what they are. the chinese have talked in much more generalities. all we have seen the past is vague promises from the chinese that they don't necessarily carry through on. we have seen the president walked out of a meeting and say we have solved all the worlds problems, and nothing has changed. i think it is important for the markets to remember what the president did was agreed to postpone raising tariffs from 10% to 25%. he did not say he was good to take off the 10% tariffs. the chinese did not say anything about removing tariffs they have on u.s. products. they are still going to the margin problem going forward unless some massive deal is reached. it is hard to see how you get the kind of deal the administration is talking about in 90 days. we are not just talking about contracts to buy more soybeans

or liquid natural gas, but we are talking about remaking the chinese economy. it is hard to see if that is going to happen in that time. looking at extending the sugar high, a strong promise from china to deal with fx devaluation, meaning if we don't get a moderately stronger dollar, does that help not have margins depreciate so much? >> if the dollar backs down a little bit, that will certainly help some of the emerging markets, in particular in china and some of the other asian countries that have seen more pressure. that could be something that helps. alix: what sectors and areas of the market have pricing power? from trade immune and benefit from stronger wages? >> it really depends by sector. we have seen some strength in

some areas of the consumer segment where they have been able to pass on pricing consumers. in the airline segment for example. this is something we do see, it is -- has helped. alix: what we did not talk about the g20 was with the communique actually said. they said global growth is synchronized. about nicehat say growth? michael: it tells us what we already no. we're seeing parts of the world slowdown. the united states is slowing down. lower than the path .e saw in the last two for gdp as the u.s. has slowed down, that is the danger for the rest of the world. as china slows down, that is a

concern for everybody. leave aside trade. the g20 meeting is perhaps the least important thing of the g20 meeting. all the events on the sidelines, saudis.-china, and the oil meeting. they left absent any were needed -- coordinated decision to address that. >> we are seeing global growth is uneven. in the u.s., the market driven more by the growth story. abroad, valuation seven cheaper. have been cheaper. this should help emerging economies. alix: thanks. still uncertainty.

michael and laura. saving money, one savings app offers a solution for managing your cash. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg daybreak. coming up later today, the president of argentina. this is bloomberg. alix: time now for the future of money. we take a look at different

aspects of how the digital world will influence money. our focus is on millennials and how they are managing their cash. qapital tartup helps users save money to reach their goals. joining us is their founder. what does it actually mean? what do i get? >> when you get from us is a way to bank completely on your mobile phone. savings, checking, and investing. what is different from us is we built the user experience layer completely focused on goals and allows you to give you your -- spending intore discretionary, short-term, and long-term goals. through that you get a lot more out of your money. our members save about $5,000

within the first 12 months using the complete experience. alix: i really responded to this when i read it because when i was in debt there was a book that was my bible. you have to pay yourself, and then bills, and then spending, and you have to divided equally. what is the success rate that you have seen? we have a tremendous success rate. you know the average u.s. consumer saves about $400, or has about $400 saved. just using our savings and setting goals and paying yourself first, we get tremendous results. it is about engineering the environments to stack in favor of you instead of what is out there. everything out there is designed to help you spend everything you have. alix: who is it for? is it just for millennials? what is your uptake in terms of

different populations? >> are average member is in the 27 to 35 years of age, but it really varies. that want toenders take control of their spending and think about short-term goals as well as everything in between , like a down payment and wedding all the way through retirement. wherehas to be one place the data and analytics is there as well as execution. what i really responded to is the fact that you pay yourself. you are entitled to money. it is not a negative. there is a positive feeling for. it really helped me. what about competition in that space? what you charge for your app? our view is that in order to help you, you need to understand the goals, what you are really striving for. experience, we are

focusing on aligning with our customers. we are not charging a lot of transaction fees or hidden fees or any of the traditional push you into products or lending products. instead we charge a monthly flat fee for the experience with zero hidden fees, no management fees on investment. we allow you to really be aligned with us, so you can wake up in the morning and help you achieve your goals. you know what you're getting for your low monthly fee. should say -- not alix: uh-huh. >> we have a six dollar complete membership. tear for $12 master those that really -- tier that really want to go deep and

understand their behavior. alix: what does the company look like for you in the next five to 10 years? >> we are super excited what we launched. we launched six month to go. the next 12 to 18 months is about growing the membership base, which is already up to 1.3 million members. we are getting lots of great feedback. at the end of the day, we are getting results for our members. people are getting better habits, saving more, investing more. using ouray that checking account, which is not just another digital checking account. it is designed around the spending sweet spot for the next seven days, allowing you to money forvy up your the next seven days. our average checking account morer saves on average 57% than the average checking account holder.

alix: thank you for joining us. george friedman, qapital ceo. next, we discuss the impact of geopolitics on the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪

alix: it is risk on this morning. the us and china declare a truce on the trade war. joining me is julian emmanuel. do you chase the rally? do you fade it? >> you have to look at this in a tempered way. market ise reason the open the way it is, is active managers are underexposed. our view is the market will continue drifting higher towards year-end. from that perspective, you want to continue to be a patient buyer as you probably should have been and as we have been

saying the right strategy is for the last several weeks. the gains between now and year and will be more difficult. areas such as energy, which we continue to favor, and health care, which is immune to the macro are places where valuation gives you an average so you can buy on days like today. is the selling over in areas like growth and tech for example? >> it is not over. the mood has gotten so sour in technology in particular that the degree of reflex reactions to the upside really does make a lot of sense. when you look at 2019 from a thelatory standpoint, spotlight is going to continue

to be on technology, which is going to lead to the market performer. given the ferocity of the market rally and how much people have sold tech down, it is likely to be a leader the next 30 days of the -- at a minimum. alix: do you have a sense if the economic sugar high, and i put otes, continues, or if you asset allocation has to shift? > the other large elephant in the room is the fed. if the fed is going to follow through on what we interpret as a more dovish signal from last week, the asset allocation is going to force you into stocks that are reasonably valued, energy and health care. the good thing about the selloff, given the fact that we still think mid to high single-digit earnings growth is

in store next year is not just those value areas where there are good valuations. there are pockets of tech and industrials. in general it is a more supportive environment. what we really need to see is followthrough from both china and the u.s. over the next 90 days as well as followthrough from the promise of an easier fed on december 19. alix: julian emmanuel, i appreciate you joining us as we head into the open. that wraps it up for bloomberg daybreak. coming up, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> >> from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. ♪

coming up, a 90 day cease-fire. xi finding common ground. russia and saudi arabia finding a deal. and bloomberg, the outlook for the u.s. economy, 30 minutes after thew york city biggest week in games on the s&p 500. we are up 40 on the s&p 500. 1.44% in the treasury market. by four basis points. new yield this morning, 3.0. investor drawing a distinction between. >> this is just the truth. >> a fairly shaky deal. >> we got an end to the trade war. >> a handshake deal is a signal of a move in the right