>> good morning. i am nejra. the opecam alive at meeting in vienna. this is "bloomberg daybreak europe." futures drop along with 10 year yields as markets reopened today. and sentiment in asia further knocked with the arrest of huawei ceo. urges opecrump against supply cuts. and brexit recession. theresa may struggles for support in u.k. parliament.

of a is a good chance downturn in the event of a hard brexit according to our guest. >> uncertainty will push this economy into slower growth we have had that in the last 12 months. that is reality. manus: a warm welcome. we are live in vienna. thegathering we have had minister of committee. the russians are on board. in principle, six months. cuts, that is the risk. breaking news from vienna. oil is lower. what does it take to put a floor on the oil market? it is freezing. nejra: i am sure that is a shock

after dubai. great to see you. i want to see you in it. what is going to be key, as you know, is what kind of signaling the market gets. will we get enough detail, a number? manus: when it comes this number, this is what we have to understand. the market says 1.3. you are going to need something more than that. take your mind back to 2016, when the big cut came through. will it be a fuzzy cut? let's get into these markets. s&p down, it tanked. c this a market ketchup -- atch up or fundamental repricing? 5%y are saying it will drop

from september highs and it is wishful thinking if you think it is going to recover from it you ,re seeing the emerging markets of vicarious display of what is happening in emerging markets. those u.s. futures key. let's look at how they are looking to read s&p foragers -- how they are looking. futures, tech stocks underperforming in the asia session. let's look at what is happening elsewhere. selloff in equities but at the same time, yields drop on the 10 year yield. let's see the 10 year yield because that has dropped below 2.9%. lowest since september. down three basis points. points -- basis points

roundabouts. money moving into the safe haven, the yen heading for the best month since february cover the aussie -- since february. there have been noises around trade that have caused trade in the asian section. when you look at yields, you have to look at europe. und 10 year b yield up 27 basis points. manus: we are going to talk about death crosses. this is the interview, there are a lot we have lined up. will speak to this man first of all print the oil minister for nigeria. join us. that will be around 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. us on ther will join

roof top to talk oil and markets. let's go to a you yvonne man in hong kong. we are feeling the chill in asia. ac of red across -- a sea of red. the trade rally of upgraded and then some. asian stocks, the worst back-to-back declines we have seen in seven weeks. seen the likes of hang seng down, 2.8% lower. nikkei down close to 2%. it did not help we heard from governor kuroda, talking about the economy, saying that economic risks from abroad could be severe. he is more concerned about trade than an inverted yield curve. huae way, -- while way -- wei/ china's soft international.

more than 50% of their sales come from huawei. is the same story. this is a much bigger impact, analysts tell us, then the issue involving the arrest of the while way -- huawei ceo. the implications are far and wide. the cfo, not just senior executive but the daughter of the cofounder. basically seen as corporate royalty and we are feeli those effects. ng nejra nejra: we are showing you what u.s. futures are doing. how concern is the ugly open on thursday? we jump to us. let's get the first word news with debra mao. huawei has been

arrested in canada over essential violations of u.s. iran sanctions, prompting outrage from china. she faces extradition to the u.s. and in extradition into whether the leading telecoms equipment maker made sales to iran despite sanctions. the arrest provoked a strong protests in the u.s. embassy in canada. arabia, russia, and other members of opec meeting in the anna have recommended in oil production cut and -- meeting in vienna have recommended an oil production cut. core opecfrom the group will meet to thrash out a consensus. largest andussia's

nonstate oil company says he is hopeful there will not be a need for a large supply curve. i hope maybe, these measures will not be necessary. as i mentioned, the price is where it should be in my opinion. we are not working with the volume. is notduction cut something we are working with. macron has vowed to face down the violent protest that have troubled france for weeks. taken will measures not be undone. but showing a sign of weakness, may not carry as much weight as before.

about the trade truce agreed to buy president trump and he warnsxi. by president trump and xi. >> i am optimistic. shows -- beand, it escalated, trade operations. news, 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. nejra: thank you. slumping as the rest of the ceo of walkway -- h

uawei signaling concerns. plunging.selling pressure was so intense a positive trading. we are asking the question, how uglyrning is thursday's open? great to have you with us. good morning. you have to look further out than one day of trading. how concerning is this opening? of almosthad a fault 3%, to have futures as down as they are, for us ultimately there have been a number of signals. the indications, the impact of the federal reserve action. asia, emerging markets underperforming. you are seeing rising rates in

the u.s. starting to have an impact. you talked about the inversion of the yield curve being potentially a signal. there are a few important other indicators that suggest a degree of caution ahead. the national association of house builders, that survey has started to roll over. it is normally a 12-18 month indicator for a turned down in employment opportunities. you take quantitative tightening. we have seen quite a significant liquidity withdrawal . there are some indications of a degree of caution and concern. we are approaching a slowdown. i thought there was interesting statistic, we were starting to see chapter 12 of flying in that field. bankruptcies escalating quite significantly. economy ishe u.s.

probably greater than people realize. manus: i have put together a cross asset chart from the rooftops of vienna to the studio in london. it really does define how battered 2018 once. there wasn't really any asset class to height. when you look at 2019, do you want to take the opportunity on drawdowns,ficant where you want to put your risk on these drawdowns -- to work on these drawdowns? >> good question. crot a chart showing the trade.t the standout is a surprise. the liquidity has had in a act on a range of asset classes. the natural thing for us to say is by fixed income is contrary and.

those have not worked. you have seen credit stretches white in. having taken risk off for most of the summer, what we have been doing his use opportunities to buy. trading and more more active in some ways than we have been before. are holding time, we look at 6-12 months is a classic time. often, we are long-term holders. we are seeing market volatility, meaning we are more tactical than usual. the question is whether the liquidity withdrawal peace will continue. >> you said you have been finding it with equities. it bearing indo mind the kenya treasury yield is below to 19%? treasuryhe 10 year

2.9%?is beloiw always datas dependent. that is why we have been raising rates. position ishat true. the bank of england is behind the curve rate the only reason we have high rates is because of brexit. draghi has indicated he is turning the taps off. we are already seeing impacts in europe. it is going to be harder to normalize than in the u.s.. manus: you want to look at the a big log, is it going to be a rolling market if the ecb moves? stay with us.

this is what we have stacked up with you. ,n interview with the ceo chatting with francine with regard to brexit. if you are uncertain about the oil markets, opec has agreed to cut output but how much? we speak exclusively to the oil minister of nigeria. stay tuned. nejra: when you are traveling to work, tune in to bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg.

this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." manus: i am manus cranny in vienna.

let's check in on how the markets are performing read downward trajectory, asia -- performing. downward trajectory in asia. will there be more policy response in china? that is the question. the rest of the cfo at the best candida.ans in crude under pressure. the russians on board with the principal of a cut. would it he a fuzzy cut, or clean-cut? minimum 1.3eeds a barr billion barrels taken off. nejra: limited trading in futures yesterday. they were a little higher at one point but down they go again. forfutures, a death cross

the first time since 2016. below 2.9%. meanwhile, the yen is bid, heading for its best month since february. let's turn to the u.k.. as theresa may fight for political life, the type of relationship europe could end up with is still in question. usbpoke to the cfo of who said a hard brexit could push europe into recession. like the politicians have got some decision-making to be made. bringg thing is we certainty into this market place. stocks off 20% this year. all on the back end of what is

going to happen in the u.k.. the uncertainty of the issue we are dealing with. backu have urged mps to those deals. >> i have been a backer. i do not see another deal. we need certainty. with any deal where you have negotiated hard, you are not going to get everything you want to read there are going to be parts you have to give up on to get something else. somee it is, how do we get certainty into the marketplace? larger companies are not investing for the long-term at the moment are they want to see some certainty. important fors the u.k. economy. it is in the hands of our mps. there is a deal on the table. do you want it or not? brexit, aree a hard

they ready for it? >> i do not think they are. have the largest lender in the business economy. there are many of our customers are not ready for a hard brexit. they do not understand it. we have been out talking to customers over the last 3-6 months, saying what are your contingency plans? have thought about it. in the construction industry, if you are importing things from europe, you say, where do i store them? where are the storage areas i can store these goods. if i need a six-month supply chain extension? businesses have looked at. >> do you see a recession coming? hard we don't get a

brexit, there is a chance the economy will go into recession. is,ink the reality uncertainty will push this economy into much slower growth than we have had in the 12 months previous. i said that two years ago when we were being asked what would brexit look like? you will see a slowing in the economy. about 12 options? what is the percentage chance of a hard brexit? said there was probably a 20% chance of a hard brexit. make a had to do was projection. that took the market by surprise.

we have models that show something that could be negative, we have to start comparing and taking that. that was the ceo of rbs francine lacqua. an exclusive conversation. small businesses are not prepared to read the risk of recession is rising. people don't really understand the ramifications. the word, i think, is chaos. he described renegotiating with the u.k. parliament. is it chaos? >> i certainly echo the comments of russ mcewing. investment has slowed dramatically as the uncertainty is there. term decisions,

people continue to invest. that is logical. anything, basically five years out, the short answer is people are saying, i'm going to step back until i have greater clarity. i get the same message back. it is not a great deal. ort is better than no deal total uncertainty. always call it at the moment. the evidence is already here. if we don't know, we are not going to deploy. you wanted toart look at. ftse local, the lowest since the of the brexit. positions -- >> uninvestable is total

nonsense. investing is finding good as mrs.. even in difficult times, you can find good businesses. the point of this chart is to show the effect of sterling. it fell that morning. is, wet of the reality did not leave and 24 hours. we were beyond where we were that night before. the worrying thing for me, the white line gives you an indication a lot of international investors are removing money out of the u.k.. space, theyto this have all been out. traders are selling and shorting the u.k.. , uncertainties weigh on oil opec agreeing to cut out what, but not on how much. trump calls on the group to keep the caps -- taps open.

this is bloomberg. ♪

bloombergs is daybreak: europe. we saw a lot of european bond yields follow suit yesterday. closingear bund yield at 28 basis points. manus: the question is on the 10 year government bond yields, the equity market, the debate is simple. is the equity market playing catch-up? having broken 3%, do you continue to slide lower in these yields?

what happens next? wages, wages. that is going to be the critical issue for re-stoking the gradualist fire. can we see the move -- high-endgh-yield yields? let's start with you. talk us through what is going on in indian markets today. asia.of red across >> a sea of red across asia, india. good morning. as hearing you talk about yields. the bond markets trended after policy. it is red across the screen. the three benchmark and are trading about a percent lower. dices are trading about a

percent lower. markets depreciated further. that is something i would watch out for. i will leave you with one key data point. last week, we were talking about cy wase curren trending. it is currently at 71. indian rupee has depreciated. you could argue, in line with what the dollar has done. the steepest fall in the last eight days for the european ruby for then union -- indian rupee. thank you very much. we have this rout on our hands. it more ins put perspective. what have you got? >> i am focusing on china to .tart us off

shares down more than 2%. the rest of the huawei ceo not helping. chinese shares have lost nearly 2 trillion in market value. this is going to be the most loss in market value since 2008. to give you an idea with the sentiment looks like, across the cries ofere have been sell all. we are likely to end on a decade low. the other mover today, 10 year yields falling today. kuroda carew to -- expressed concerns. you can see over here, getting closer to inverting. at 20.n, that curve is it got as low as 19. look at what happens in 2006.

the u.s. curve inverts. japan stays still. this time, it is yours to be different. we are asking the question, how concerning is thursday's ugly opening? u.s. futures. you can join the debate. let's get the first word news news. >> the cfo of wall way -- huawei has been arrested in canada. complicating trade negotiations. she faces extradition to the u.s. an investigation into whether the leading telecom equipment maker made sales and -- the arrest

reaction in china. theresa may said to be weighing a series of concessions to win over rebels. held talks with permanent euro skeptics. she is said to be discussing giving lawmakers future veto. rbs is warning a hard brexit could push the u.k. into recession. he says he foresees much slower growth as politicians continue to wrangle over the deal. i have been a backer of the deal. i don't see another deal. from a business perspective, we need certainty.

you are not going to get everything you want. there are going to be parts of that you have to give up on to get something else. for me it is around, how do we get some certainty into the market? is suspending its top-tier of investor visas. thehome office says investor visa program which is popular with the wealthy will be suspended from this night on friday. washington has said goodbye to president george h w bush. oldest sonnt's called his father a leader of optimism and character. saying he taught him what integrity means. he was the last u.s. leader to fight in war time. he will be buried after a

funeral service in texas. news, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts. thank you so much. here's a look at what you should be watching today. hosting the year ahead summit. global ceos talk about the trends facing executives in the year ahead. opec oil ministers gather in vienna for two days of talks. we are there. and watch out for updates on the u.s. economy. manus: thank you very much, on the rooftops overlooking vienna. below $53nding, lost a barrel. michael cohen is the head of

commodity research. he joins me on the rooftop to discuss the market. you put it well in terms of language. elegant solution. or quite solution. which are we going to get today? a it is going to be between quiet cut and elegant solution. a quite cut implies the saudis are producing above 11 million barrels a day. they do not want to fly in the face of what trump wants. comeare going to have to up with a solution to say they are watching the market. fromet back their output october and november levels. to problem is it is going overwhelm -- underwhelm what market expectations are. does it say, we will do our best? 1.3 million barrels.

once a the market minimum of 1.5. concur with the 1.3. that is the number used about a month ago in abu dhabi. average you could imply if output the same as it is now. that is how you get these large numbers. the venezuela production numbers, likely to fall as we move into next year. likewise with iran. he said, manus, you are underpricing venezuela, nigeria. you are underpricing the risks. agree or disagree? >> i do agree. there are a lot of reasons to remain constructive. there have been a couple

wassions where oil outperforming other commodities. we have to look at why that happened. manus: synchronized growth. has fallenrative apart. when we look at next year, we think the inventory situation first of all is not that bad. the second thing that i think it's important to understand, the situation in venezuela is going to get worse. look at the iran waivers, these are only for 180 days. in my view, the market is going to focus again on how much supply is going to come off. these are the things in my view that are going to keep markets going. on the way up. over the last few weeks on the way down, when you look at the physical market fundamentals, they have not really weekend.

we --akened. as long as we get a cut of some kind. that could conceivably do a more constructive elements. >> you talk about iran. you mentioned it there. you say these weaker prices will embolden the u.s.. what are you hearing on that? he denied he had a meeting with the iran sanctions. does that fit into this conversation? >> it is surprising the saudis were not completely clear with having the meeting. >> they said, absolutely, this did not take place. >> the state department confirmed it later. the issue for the saudis is they ramped up production to almost 11 million barrels. bethe assumption there would

very few waivers given to importers of iranian oil. essential to get a good sense of what is u.s. policy with respect to the significant reduction. one could use maybe twitter for that. what a quietme solution would do to prices. where would that take me? if i don't get an explicit amount that the market wants to hear about, what does it do to prices on the way down? >> there are not going to be many catalysts. markets of giving the more concrete evidence on the state of the market. in the absence of that concrete

evidence, it would be our view a quiet cut or a lack of specifics is going to lead to more bearish in this. mind howuestion in our strong the fundamental backdrop is. the economic situation is not collapsing. we have strong economic data from the u.s.. the chinese government that seems willing to support the economy. that will likely lead to a pickup and prices as we get into the first part of next year but it could get ugly. >> but you stick with your target. thank you very much. we will see a little bit later on. n, the head of commodity research at barclays. nejra: great work. i want to get your thoughts as you manage a global cross asset portfolio.

how would that change your portfolio that is tilted toward risk? -- depends what is driving it. that probably means mobile growth has continued to slow. if it is because it has picked up, your preference would be for risk based assets. the thing for us, the reason why the oil prices come off, global growth indicators have been slowing for some time. that is why we were taking risk off in the summer. are cautiously optimistic. the direction of interest rates, the u.s. starting to normalize is a net positive for people starting to think about potential deployment. the rest of the world is going the federal reserve, that could impair growth.

the factor for me is china. chinesed about the market. the stimulus question is the one that will be the swing factor. >> rate to get your thoughts. he will be continuing the conversation. much more value to get at 7:30 a.m. u.k. time. huawei cfo has been arrested in canada over potential violations. later, a great interview from vienna. we will speak with the qatar energy minister after the country announced they will pull out of opec. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> let's check in on what is trending across the bloomberg universe. apple is resorting to promo deals and trade in to boost iphone sales. start production in the world's largest auto market, china. and our most read stories, third adopts ank ma analytical approach to sports in china. second, donald trump will trigger an end to the special trading status. and china outraged at the rest jhuawei ceo.way -- manus: our government editor in canada, good to see you. know exactly about what happened?

>> she is a very problem it -- prominent figure in china, the daughter of the founder of huawei. that has outraged the chinese. they have been fairly positive the rest of the week. they have been saying they reached a consensus and hope to speed up trade talks. this is an unprecedented move. is the background on this investigation into iran sanction by relations? >> the company has been investigated by the u.s. on violation of sanctions before. the timing of this has a lot of people confused and concerned. the markets are reflecting that. >> we just had a 90 day truce in

the u.s. tariff conflict. lots of rhetoric. how could this come to bear on negotiations? >> this was a truce, not a permanent deal. divergences between the u.s. and china, especially on concerns over international property theft. huawei -- what is the heart of concern for washington. nejra: the dramatic drop in u.s. futures can be seen as reflective of a year of turbulent and financial markets. traders have had to contend with tensions. with 2018 coming to a close, how should they position for the future? the head of the european

investment office joins us. pleasure to have you with us to read big existential questions being asked. you released your 2019. what are you telling investors? things we need to keep in mind. the cycle becomes more mature. more full get used to of tel aviv. we need to be positioned for that. one of the golden rules is invest across asset classes and regions. the other big development, for a number of years, banks will end with balance sheets smaller than when we started the year. we had a quantitative easing for a number of years. that tied into financial conditions and we need to keep that in mind. saw moreat time, we

correlation between different asset classes. we need to think about diversifying. on month to pick up ever sick point. we have talked about how 2018 has produced no returns across asset classes. hardest time since the 1970's. more detail how you diversify and make returns and 2019. diversification, you need to go beyond bonds and equities. you need to think about alternatives. the other thing you need to think about is sustainable investing. impact investing. if you think about what drives values ofe investing, investors. that does not show what you saw in asset classes. that is another way of diversification.

becomes, do you favor u.s., europe? let's talk about europe. break ahat, we have to headline. saying france will impose a digital tax. the potential threat to his agenda. will he have to walk back any of his promises? sayingame out yesterday, he has put on hold the fuel taxes. he will not reverse any of the reforms. he bigger question is, is losing momentum? momentum tokeep the produce more reforms. he has to find it more difficult. we have to remember this is france. government tried

to introduce reforms, there have been a lot of products. has been more successful than previous governments to produce these reforms. slow down.likely to that has some indications for europe as well. him tonatural for introduce a lot of reforms at home, to go to the rest of europe and say, why don't we do more in europe? now if he's finding it more difficult, what does it mean for the rest of europe? has homegrown problems. globalpacted by the trade war. are there any reason to be positive? >> the economy, most probably

slow. it is going ahead of consensus. european equities, 5%. see thed potentially market moving higher in line with earnings. is room for upside even in europe. >> great to see you. stay with us and we will talk more through the volatility in the markets. manus is still with us. >> all eyes and ears. what can opec come up with? this man will have a few answers about the sentiment of opec. qatar set to leave. joining us as they pull out of

opec. oilr, the nigerian minister. 7:30 a.m.. ♪

from theod morning opec meeting in vienna. i'm manus cranny and this is "bloomberg daybreak." nejra: i'm they rich a edge city of london at bloomberg's headquarters. -- neighbor change -- nejra che hic live from the city of london at bloomberg's headquarters. manus: stocks tumble in asia. the selloff goes from bad to worse. u.s. futures drop along with yields as u.s. markets reopened today. brexit recession? theresa may struggled for support in the u.k. parliament. the ceo of rbs tells bloomberg

a goodvely there is chance of a downturn in the event of a hard brexit. >> i think the reality is that uncertainty will push this lower growtha much .han we have had that is just the reality. manus: a warm welcome to vienna. it is almost -1. the markets of oil are under pressure. i have heard every description. a fuzzy cut, a quiet cut, and elegant cut. whatever way it cuts up, we need details today. the voices from opec will speak to bloomberg. this is what we have stacked up for you. the qatari energy minister

standing ready to talk to us. as qatar gets ready to exit the group. he might have to take a little bit of pain. sharing the pain if you want to see an oil gain. the nigerian oil minister at 7:30 p.m. this morning. ,etween barclays and rapid them what would a quiet cut do? would it be clear enough to the market to create a floor. just how much of a cut with a be prepared to take? nejra: exactly. you have outlined it exactly how it is. how clear is the messaging going to be. let's take a look at the equity markets. big moves here. ftse futures were already lower

overnight. it looked like dax and cac 40 futures are following the same. we so most industry groups drop on europe's equity benchmarks. the pain continues in these equity markets. existential questions over why this is happening. or is it just short-term moves? some opportunism? the fact that we had a shorter trading session yesterday and futures have something to do with it. u.s. markets reopened today. the 10 year treasury yield continues to drop along with the selloff in equities. at one point yesterday, it took the european yields with it. look, there is nothing that is unscathed. stocks are down. is this where you put your tin hat on? i'm looking at the pricing on the screen in front of me. we've got more lines coming through on the italian saga as

to whether there is any maneuverability from the italians. by the way, the italian treasury, this is where it gets difficult. they need to come to these markets, they need something from these markets. if there is any sign of a buyer strike in italy, that is the risk -- risk. you are going to the boones -- bonds. you are seeing that moveon treasury futures narrow. the markets, equities down. yields are lower. the very latest on the asian markets. good day. >> the day, manus. pretty ugly thursday to wrap up our thursday afternoon here. take a look at your world map. you are seeing a sea of red across the board. we were already dealing with trade concerns and you add another shocker with the cfo arrested in canada violating u.s. sanctions on iran.

we are seeing the likes of the bright red caps in china down some 2%. 2.7%.eng, we are down your tech heavy benchmarks like taiwan, japan really hitting it hard here today. the ripple effect has been felt far and wide. china outraged by all of this. we will show you the movers here. a big question, is this going to be the next zte? we see it falling in sympathy with the news. these suppliers plunging 12% in hong kong. largest revision in hong kong facing a double whammy here today. they are forecasting sales to slide in december on waning demand from customers. that stopped down close to 10% in taipei today. we have been watching some of these chinese drum makers plunging this afternoon. there is concern the government may drive down prices through

its centralized procurement program, which allows cities and local governments in china to buy medicine in bulk. the big concern is that some of these pharma companies are going to have to massively cut prices to win these orders. back to you. , thank you so much. the selling pressure on u.s. futures has been so great that we have heard the cme had to pause trading due to volatility. european futures pointing to a third day of losses for european equities. today, we are asking the question, how concerning is thursday's ugly open? you can join the debate. now let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> thanks. u.k. prime minister theresa may is said to be weighing a range of concessions to win over conservative rebels and save her

sinking brexit deal. after losing three house of commons votes on tuesday night, she has held talks with prominent eurosceptics. she is said to be discussing giving lawmakers a veto on entering the irish border backstop arrangement. the ceo of rbs is morning a hard the u.k. intoush recession. politicians continued to wrangle over theresa may steel. it is already causing a dip in investment. >> at the moment, i don't see another deal. from a business perspective -- and with any deal where you have negotiated hard over a long period of time, you are not going to get everything you want. there are going to be parts of that that you have to give up on to get something else. it is about for me how you get some certainty into the marketplace. investment is not being made. hasey: emmanuel macron

vowed to face down the violent protests that have troubled france for weeks. the president told ministers that measures taken in the past 18 months including the wealth tax will not be undone. the french prime minister says the country will impose a digital tax if europe doesn't and confirms there were now be no fuel taxes in 2019. china's former central bank postel bloomberg is optimistic about a trade truce agreed by president trump and xi at the g20. he said the agreement shows both sides are keen to escalate tensions -- de-escalate tensions, rather, although he warned wider reform of the wto is needed. he expects the u.s. and china to find some sort of accord in the next few weeks. global news 24 hours per day on air and on twitter.

nejra and manus. manus: thank you very much crude market is under pressure. wti extending its losses. we are hours away from the official meeting. anne-marie is a very special guest with her. take it away. >> good morning. i'm happy to say i'm joined live by the qatari minister of energy. this is his first and last meeting. your country has decided to pull out of opec, which has always been able to withstand any sort of political situations, even extremes like the iran-iraq war. why do you think this has to be is so symbolic since the group has been so strong economically. >> we have really looked at this very hard. at opec.ooked

we have a clear strategy on growth in gas. look at our growth strategy in the future, gas is our business in qatar. when we look at the pros and , wielding produce around 600,000. that is the value of state. the oil andand from gas perspective. is this to do with the climate of the saudi and other countries? >> we have a very progressive young leader. we want to do things in a business way that is the best thing for the business, looking at the strategy going forward. when we presented to his highness a strategy on what to do for the future, he took the

decision that that is the best approach because the pros and cons of staying, it is not political for us. it is technical and strategy. i know a lot of journalists want to criticize, but this is definitely not a political move. annmarie: many members were shocked that they did not get a heads up. did you let anyone know? >> no. we are a sovereign country. we take decisions within our leadership and what his highness .ad decided it is absolutely not political. we're the biggest energy producer in the world as everyone knows. we are going to 110 million tons. and we are growing outside the country in oil and gas. oil is really not a big part of our strategy moving forward. we did not see value of staying.

you are still attending today's meeting. what do you think? we are participating because we have no obligation to stay until the end of the year. that is how it works. attending the first meeting, we will not attend the closed meeting which has the cuts that project the future and the budget and things like that because we will not be part of the future, so it is unethical of us to stay in that. we have notified the secretary general that we are only going to be attending the opening and thank opec for what they have done for us over the years and basically depart after that. annmarie: so, you don't have to abide by these cuts if there are going to be cuts on the table. mr. al kaabi: the cuts will not influence qatar. the cuts are always looking

forward, projections of what the cuts will look like. we are not going to be part of that future for opec. annmarie: does this mean you will ramp up oil production? mr. al kaabi: no, i think we will have steady oil production. we will see whatever we think is fit for our strategy going forward as far as the production. annmarie: just hearing the conversations and you are not taking part in the cuts come at you think the market is oversupplied in your personal view? mr. al kaabi: the market is oversupplied. i think that a cut could be something that would help the market, but it depends on the seasonality of things that could happen in the future. we did not focus on that area much. because we are not that big in oil, that is something that we leave to others to look at and decide what they want to do as opec. annmarie: i want to rescue a question about what is going on in the gulf. the saudi king invited qatar to

the gcc. will you be attending? you think this is a sign of better relations? mr. al kaabi: we wish for better relations in the gulf. the gulf is a very important region. we have had good relations for a long time with saudi arabia and bahrain and egypt, inputting the blockade that is very unjust and unfair on qatar that hurts us as people. it is something that the international community found is baseless, that was really put on the basis of funding terrorism, where i think everybody knows that we have absolutely nothing to do with terrorism. we have been a very good world citizen. i think our politicians have done a great job in showing that and describing what qatar is about. we signed an accord with the

u.s. to have an open book on the issue of looking at funding of terrorism or monetizing that element, if you will. the others who have been blaming us for that have not signed up on anything like that. i think we are heading in the right direction and doing everything we need to do and we leave it to others to do with they feel is best for them, but what they are doing for the people of gcc is damaging the unity of the people and the tribes that are all one. annmarie: you say this is nothing to do with leaving the group of opec? mr. al kaabi: absolutely not. journalists, even in our country, our writing that this could be political. everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but i can absolutely and unequivocally tell you that it is not. annmarie: think you so much for your time. mr. al kaabi: thank you. annmarie: that was tickets qatari energy minister, his

first and last meeting here, they will be leaving the group. he said the decision is not political. manus: ok, well done. well done on getting that interview. they are leaving opec. let's take the conversation back to our guest host. we have asian stocks slumping after the arrest of the cfo of a chinese tech giant. we have trade tensions between beijing and washington, u.s. --ures plunged, signaling selling pressure earlier in the session. the cme were forced to intermittently pause trading. thursday's ugly opening? let's bring in the head of european investment at ubs world management with us now. some are looking for signals of an earnings recession.

running out of stimulus, and a paring back on revenue from u.s. companies next year. the s&p is showing a death crawl. are you sure this level of gloom -- is it really that necessary to rerate that aggressively on stocks? we are worried about the slowdown, but we don't see a recession. if you look at the market reaction, it really looks like the market is telling us that we are about to go into recession and maybe this is the end of the cycle. if you look around the world, the u.s. would slow down a bit, europe would slow down a bit. we still expect 2.6% in 2019. all of the signals that precede a recession, we just don't see it. employment is still dropping in the u.s., wage growth is there.

key to that, there is no inflation running away. it is just below their target. there is no huge pressure. we don't see that agency in the fed to aggressively increase interest rates. we are still seeing that we are not going into recession. nejra: and you are overweight global equities and you don't see much differentiation between regions. chumley what areas of the fixed income markets where you see opportunities? themis: with the opportunities in emerging markets sovereign debt, dollar-denominated. the spreads are very attractive. close to 4%. even high yields in asia. that looks quite attractive. 9% yields in this environment also looks attractive given the

background. if you look at china, it could grow by 6% next year. still a pretty decent growth. ok, thank you for sharing your thoughts with us this morning. the head of european investment over at ubs. we have just been hearing from in terms of their position on exiting opec. let me bring in my next guest. oil is below $53 per barrel, uncertainty lingering around the whole of the market. on the rooftop here in vienna. good to see you this morning. the russians are on board, but we don't know the size they are prepared to chip in for. is that the burning issue? >> i think that is one of the burning issues. i don't think that is insurmountable. i think we can get to that. there is not that much of a difference between what russia

has said, 150,000 barrels, versus what opec is asking for, which is slightly higher. the bigger question is we have seen the tweet from trump. what is he going to say if there is a cut? minister hastari said the market is oversupplied in his personal view. how much oversupply do you think there is? amrita: if you look at the kumar -- q4 numbers, the market is not oversupplied. however, i think if you look at q1 and q2, that is one refinery maintenance pick up, it could be as much as one million barrels per day. manus: that is the scale of the oversupply. i have heard a couple of different phrases this morning on the rooftop. one is a quiet solution, one is a fuzzy cut. what do you think we need to put a floor on the market?

i get the feeling we need something quite express and quite definite. amrita: i think even if we get one million it is a floor. manus: one is enough? from octoberis one baselines. compare that to november numbers when everyone in opec surged productions, the actual cut could almost be 1.7 million. the market will take some time to figure that out. the october levels are a lot lower. that is the baseline. they all increased production in november. manus: it is important to take it from the up numbers. amrita: exactly. manus: hence the ability to go down to one million instead of 1.3 million. amrita: the fuzzy solution is on purpose. i think that is what they are going for. manus: lydia and nigeria have their exemptions -- sorry, libya -- nigeria was left out of those last round of cuts. what needs to happen in regard to perhaps where there has been

a benevolence shown to them? to the family? amrita: they have to join the family. one thing that russia and saudi arabia have made very clear, there will be no exceptions. the nigerian minister hinted at that. manus: we will talk to him shortly. how much do they need to pitch in, so to speak? amrita: i think they will obviously have a cut, whatever the percentage is. i think they are still ok, libya is the bigger problem. we have not really seen libya go back to the 1.7 million that they used to do. they have stabilized around 1.1 million. manus: it is probably more of a token per -- participation. symbolic. the tweets have started. the president of the united states has been saying, i want lower prices and i want the taps open. does mohammad bin salman potentially have a pass here? does he have the ability to cut in the eye of the trump storm?

amrita: this is where you have heard all of these quiet cuts and fuzzy cuts. we have said it is a cut which is not a cut. you do it quietly in the principal market, but don't announce it. they are trying to do a cut which does not lead to a spike in oil prices. if it goes up a little bit. it is fine. the point is they say they need to stabilize prices. manus: is that because they need to understand where we are with global growth? a clearer picture on global trade? if you over cut, you've got to you turn again. is that a risk? amrita: global growth has been at the top of everyone's minds. which is why i think they do have some room to say, we will be oversupplied, especially given the demand uncertainties. the is important for long-term future for oil prices and consumers. they have some rules to play around with, but this is very tricky in a political situation.

manus: the men in charge of iran sanctions was in town yesterday. what are you hearing? amrita: i think there were some meetings, nothing specific on iran. there was something specific about making sure the prices don't spike. manus: thank you for braving the cold. my latest guest on the oil markets. joining us here this morning. we are never far from a bit of brexit. nejra: absolutely not. i love what she said about the october numbers being the baseline. that is crucial. let's turn back to brexit. theresa may is working to avoid a crushing defeat on her brexit deal. it remains unclear what she could offer parliament to get the deal through and what it could mean for the chances of a no deal brexit. joining us now is bloomberg's london bureau chief. theresa may sending her chief whip to negotiate with brexit rebels. what are the challenges here? >> everything.

we are back to square one. the government chief wet is going to be --whip is going to years to getrexit behind the deal. that is going to require the approval of the european union, a renegotiation of the treaty. in a way, we are seeing what we have seen the last few years, rallying around a point they can theagree on and the rest is european union will later say no. they will spend the day trying to get support for theresa may's brexit deal. that looks like a tough sell and looks like it has no chance of getting past. nejra: if you look at the markets, i'm talking about gilt yields yesterday. it seems as if markets are pricing in no deal than they were more. absolutely, the amendment

on tuesday, parliament is going to have more say. removing the possibility of a no deal brexit. in reality, it doesn't. it certainly diminishes the chances of it happening. now probably a 40% chance there is a no deal. nejra: thank you for that. great to get your perspective on that. back to vienna. manus: yes. it is amazing how we have to wait and see what our brexit deal drama delivers, deal or no deal. right here in the streets of vienna. amrita is that one hotel. i met another. we are going to be chasing ministers. we are getting ready for a potential scrum. oil is under pressure. will it be a quiet cut? will it be a fuzzy cut? we are joined from the nigerian

oil ministry. ♪

>> good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets, the european open. i'm anna edwards alongside matt miller in berlin. matt: good morning. risk off. mood dominating asian stocks. bonds and currencies. equity futures plunging to the point where they had to be halted. starts in less than 30 minute time. anna: