>> good morning. manus: live from the opec meeting in vienna, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." u.s. futures lower even as jay powell praises the u.s. economy. theresa may could push back the vote on her brexit deal. but there is no room for renegotiation. pep talks in vienna. oilia holds back,

slides. ♪ manus: welcome to daybreak. day two. today is more opec. who is holding out? is it the iranians? there is a fractured discussion . it endured yesterday. it lasted 17 days in 1986. have i packed enough? the haggling is serious. the saudi's are playing hardball. it is about getting from the ecstasy at the start of the week to the agonuy of the demolition

in the oil market. nejra: no deal for the first time in five years. thee are highlights between and of saudi arabia russia. a big question over what the details are going to be. this is in terms of what would be neutral, bullish, and bearish. about i was thinking this. what does it take to reprice the market? oil at the five day moving -- move in oil. you have a net trade up by 56%. number ofa existential threats to the price of oil. one is the harmony of opec.

two, russia. three, trump. become a net exporter of oil for the first time in 75 years. 3%.was taken down nearly we spiked at the close in the s&p 500. that got to talk about one line coming through across the bloomberg. this is the ria. wants to cut output. nejra? 150,000, interesting. moscow was seeking a small

reduction. saudi arabia was looking at a russian cut. i am glad you brought that up. i saw one analyst saying that hasrsion of the three sides predicted a 73 of the past -- 73 of the past nine recessions. the 10 is below 2%. -- ten year is below 2%. we saw recovery in the tech stocks. of the yen is retreating against the dollar in today -- the yen is retreating against the dollar in today's session. european stocks ended at a two-year low. the ftse futures pointing higher, along with the moves we have seen in a jeff. -- in asia.

a lot of questions over whether the jobs report is going to add to volatility, or whether it will show any repricing. coming up, we speak to larry kudlow, at 2:30 p.m. london time. let's check on the asian markets. yvonne, a bit of a mix to session. -- mixed session. is a recovery we are seeing. this has been a pretty rough week. there has been a weekly drop in asian stocks. china is flat. we are seeing a bit of a pressure. the health-care sector is weighing on the chinese stocks

today. are suddenly higher, about 4/10 of 1%. take a look at the movers we are looking at, in particular. the company came out with a statement today. this will impact people in the u.k.. emergency conference calls are being played out. there are institutional investors ahead of this ipo next week. they are trying to sway investors that they are going to be ok. biopharma, the government is driving down these drug prices. thes going to really impact bottom line for some of these pharmaceutical companies.

drug prices could be slashed by up to 31 drugs. you have the lower yields story. it is impacting the financials here today. the u.s. was investigating while way over a transaction linked with the -- linked with the company and iran. see's -- destocked down about 1.2%. this software company in india, news of this , $1.8 billion. >> thank you, very much.

let's get you to our question of the day. the probability of a december has dropped to just over 60%. basis points of a hike in 2019. what does it take to stop that? let's get the first word news. >> the u.k. prime minister is said to be weighing a plan to postpone the crunch mode on her brexit deal. theresa may has been meeting with lawmakers all week. the u.k. is on course to crash out of the european union without a deal. another vote is on track to be

held next tuesday. >> this is a balanced agreement. >> opec talks ended without a deal on oil production cuts, for the first time in nearly five years. opec countries meet with our allies later today. you have roughly a target? >> one million barrels a day. >> do you have an agreement set for tomorrow? >> no.

>> angela merkel is gathering in hamburg to decide whether to appoint her chosen successor. there is a strategy of looking to dominate the center ground of german politics. the vote amongst party delegates takes place at 3 p.m. this afternoon. nissan is going to be cited for misstated security filings. nissan says it has identified serious misconduct related to the reporting of carlos ghosn's compensation. he has denied wrongdoing.

global news 24 hours a day, and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. thank you. asian markets are posting modest gains today. investors are weighing prospects for a fed tightening. u.s. futures are down after a rally. at one point it was the worst today drop since february. what does managing inflation expectations mean for investors? is running to safety, or capital preservation, expectationshe of growth and yield. >> this is the nature of the beast investors are walking on a shells.

ggshells. they've become hypersensitive to development. investors are hypersensitive to positive developments for much of this year. we have a more appropriate balance between upside and .ownside development the lack of panic in the options market is interesting. the volatility goes both ways. >> i think the volatility will continue. going to be optimistic when it settles into whatever the new environment as. there is a spread that sellers want to sell in the oil markets.

once we settle into the new era, i am very excited about the role of private equity at that time. it is good to see you this morning. we ever had rallies and routes this week. is there a paradigm shift ?appening are you concerned about the inversion of the yield curve? have become used to

the inversions of the recessions. they have been given long lead times. i think the factor has slightly changed this week. and theabout trade tips chinese. i think the news this week was the reaction in the bond market. reliable indicators of the recession are not flashing the same signals. growth in the u.s. is still pretty good. i read something that said in terms of predicting the ninession, 73 of the past some time -- seven of the past nine sometimes give false signals. >> sometimes you can focus on

the wrong curve. we have a little bit of widening. it is still near where it was back in 2009. a i don't think we are seeing crisis in terms of credit spreads. i think this reflects investors about the yield curve in a government bond market. we could get a recession. it is natural that share prices might come down on the corporate spreads. i think the last unambiguously false signal was in 1966. >> even i can't run without.

even i wasn't around then. you talk about some of the flashing signals. i would like to know what they are. but i would like to challenge you. one and list -- analyst cited home sales dropping for six months. america corporations could be showing early warning signs. the housing market is definitely one of the areas where some of the data comes in weaker than expected. the housing market is significantly influenced by what is going on in the household sector in terms of financial health. interestingery things, other than the yield -- we don't get recessions in the united states

when the oil price goes down 30% over two months. it just doesn't happen. with the oil price going down, that is giving consumers a tax cut, or the equivalent thereof. price of oiln the is actually very good in terms of the consumption side of the economy. there is a slight offset to what is happening in the gold curve. >> how much potential does the jobs report have to get to pricing on the long end? >> the market will react. other indicators of the labor market are ok.

we have a lot of noise in the numbers today after people coming to work in the bad weather. market is onebor of the areas where you can save but wenomy is healthy, should be more focused on more leading indicators. the initial claims of people signing on for unemployment have fallen. what kind of pay rise they get. they have had the strongest pay rise in nine years. coming up, opec talks. the first time in maybe five years. ?an an agreement be reached

we discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back to bloomberg. we are seeing a repricing of markets. we have the dollar yuan strengthening slightly. nimex crude down another 1%.

still no deal. crude, under pressure. is the biggest worry for equity traders that they don't know why stocks are moving so much? u.s. futures are pointing lower ahead of the jobs report. it looks like we could see a lower u.s. equity report. there was a bad bloodbath of a session in europe yesterday. here is a look at bloomberg business flash. traders are likely to fire

for ins -- filed for insolvency in a move that could wipe out existing shareholders. they would not allow a brief listing. hit the roadt to in europe. reservations opened at a thousand euros in the netherlands norway, switzerland, sweden, and france, to be the first to receive the vehicles. that is your bloomberg business flash. >> thank you. oil remains under pressure. two days of talks wrapped up in conclusively.

we are talking to the head of investment strategy at waverton investment managements. x oil prices provide a boost to consumption. you don't have to spend that much money on energy -- demand should be going up. >> these are existential threats to opec in many ways. >> the oil market is very

different today, thanks to the influence the u.s. has in terms of the volume of production. when you look at what has been happening in the oil market, one of the things that has been going on are the saudi's having increased production. they've increased supply into the market from selling down some of their reserves. that implies there is a little bit of flexibility within opec to reduce that level of production. i would've thought the balance of probability still favors the idea there will be some kind of production cuts. that should give some sort of support to the price. it has gone down 30% in the last two months. >> thank you. up next, theresa may is said to mull postponing the brexit

vote. tune in to bloomberg maybe -- radio if you are traveling the world. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is bloomberg

daybreak: europe. the 10 year yield is below 2.9%. i want to talk about the two-year yield. of the most severe crucial repricing's we have seen in the bond market yet. you look at the pricing round the fed as well. this is some severe repricing we are seeing for 2019. >> inflation expectations are

rolling over. had the best pay increases in nine years in the united states. about 2019, that is a long way in the distance. there is only a 6% probability of a rate hike in december. one company is saying they are not a seller of equity markets at this level. there is an emergency of one in the past a series of convergence.

credit suisse would agree. december is a sure thing. let's check on markets around the world. talk to us about what is happening in the indian session today. after three or four days, the currency has strengthened in the session in indian markets today. the bond yields are continuing

to go off in india as well. has comer news is what out of report in india. there is a large private sector bank. keenhire hathaway might be to buy a ten percent stake of one bank. it has overtaken the largest bank in india. story.s a news manus: maria? pressure.een under how are they looking?

is there any sign of any reprieve? is very little sign this will get better. the cfo has been arrested for allegedly violating sanctions. stock fell to a record low yesterday. the expectation was that we would get relief on the relationship between china and the u.s. after xi and trump met. we are not getting any really for the time being. my next art will take us closer takeme -- chart will us closer to home. this three-month volatility is

the highest since 2016. we are approaching the end game where it comes to brexit. no one knows what it looks like. votesa may could delay the in an attempt to get more concessions from the european union. the european union has said this is not possible. nejra: thank you. we are asking the question on mliv. what would it take to stop the fed hike? a big move in the two year yield yesterday. join the debate and reach out to us. let's get the first word news. debra: jay powell has delivered

a bullish assessment of the u.s. economy and labor market ahead of the u.s. payroll numbers. he said the economy is performing very well overall. economists are expecting a moderate rising payroll later today. this indicates possible:. cooling.le after two days of discussions in vienna, the saudi energy minister said he is not confident with allies in the wider opec plus group. the number of one million barrels a day has been less dangling in uncertainty. >> to you have a target -- do you have a target? >> we're still debating.

>> are you confident you have an agreement set for tomorrow? no. america has become a net exporter of crude for the first time in seven decades. thanks to an unprecedented boom and supply from the permian basin in texas and new mexico, along with higher production from north dakota and pennsylvania. ghosn is said to be indicted for financial crimes as soon as monday. also to be indicted for misstating security filings. in custody since his arrest on allegations of underreporting his income. he is cooperating with investigators, but has denied

wrongdoing. global news 24 hours a day, and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. nejra: thank you. germany's ruling cdu elects a new chair to succeed angela merkel. ministers in vienna are going to continue talking. we will bring you market moving news throughout the day. the latestill get jobs data from the world's largest economy at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time. brexit.o theresa may is weighing a plan to stop the crunch of brexit.

this is a net attempt to avoid a landslide defeat -- in an a ttempt to avoid a landslide defeat. leaders are said to be mulling over minor tweaks to the brexit agreement. sense thatets the if brady's favoring a delay, i'd begin to worry. we need a cathartic brexit moment. we need a to vote so we can move on. would you agree? >> something cathartic would be helpful. it is difficult to see what that could be. thee are reports about how mps are going to vote that is

completely wrong. can the government do something to queen -- tweak the agreement to change that kind of arithmetic? unless they have something up i am not quite sure what postponing a vote will do. i struggle with how we resolve this. sterling has not been a bit weaker. of a prospectss of a no deal brexit. a number of ways to profit with the risk of a no deal brexit.

do you see less of a risk of a no deal brexit? what risk would you take? we havenot sure necessarily moved in that direction as much. in parliament, there is actually an opposition to the whole concept of brexit. the nature of the agreement the prime minister has done is in a version of a soft brexit. i am not sure we have gotten that much further. we could be doing some kind of soft deal that does get a majority.

you have something else in the background. >> they talk about the uncertainty, the probability of the no deal. they are talking about inflation trade. >> 18 years of gains in the ftse, gone. what do you think of this flipping? >> there is a valuation case for the u.k.. equities, relative,

certainly very attractive. resolutiont some that the markets could live with him brexit. it is a global environment. there is aty neutral valuation support for the u.k.. -- are pretty neutral. there is a valuation support for the u.k.. merkel's exit from politics continues. for party gathers in hamburg to elect a new leader -- her party gathers in hamburg to elect a new leader. bowedal conservative has to regain territory. whoever comes up on top will be germany's unofficial chancellor? .

matt, what is the likely outcome of this vote? no one is really clear as to who is going to win. it looks pretty split. since 2002, one candidate has led a number of leadership roles in banking. he's been immersed in the corporate culture. can he make the switch?

make the switch to politics? manus: if he doesn't win, what leadership mean for the bigger political objective? matt: the party under his leadership would likely swing back to the right. erkel's strategy has been to take up the center in a big way. will would follow that strategy. but one candidate says he will win back the votes lost to the more liberal party, and bring it

back toward the right of the spectrum. you may see tax reform, more serious budget cuts. you would almost certainly see a more corporate friendly government. he's been so active in germany in the last ten years. >> thank you. coming up, opec talks end with out a deal for the first time in nearly five years. we'll discuss. manus is in vienna, covering all this for us. manus: the russians could be in line for 150,000 barrels. later, we have an interview

with larry kudlow. work, are traveling to tune into bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> let's check in on what is trending across the bloomberg. lyft has filed for an ipo. huawei is aware of potential blowback in talks with beijing. the u.s. labor market is strong in its jobs report.

following the arrest of the cfo, china accuses the u.s. of trying to contain the rise of the company. it willoble group says attempt to push for equity restructuring by an alternative process. this is a move that could wipe out existing shareholders. this comes after regulators in singapore announced a probe into account last month and announced they would not allow a relisting. engine plant may be brought out of storage to rebuild a new jeep grand cherokee. jobs byld add new firing up the plant.

you.: thank we are in vienna. it is all about opec. a lack of confidence, some would say. mr. novak comes to the table. with the latest. morgan.tegy from jp great to see you. we don't have a deal for the first time in five years. we have to think about rescheduling our days. the market is on tender hawks. tenderhooks. ahread ofittle bit

ourselves. we just heard from the russian news agency. 150,000 barrels. is this setting the tage for what we can expect? cantage for what we expect? 1.2 million barrels for opec 2. 1.3 for opec plus. expect them to give a number th hime region of 1.1 million

barrels per day. region of 1.1 million barrels per day. cut.is going to be physical markets are going to clean up. foreign policy. the biggest issue is the long arm reach of the u.s. what does this look like? an agreement between the top leaders of the countries.

lead to further selloff. if this is too high, oil prices will go up. got a sense the ssaudis want everyone on board, but there were rumblings about exemptions. wants everyone

to participate because that way their own cards won't look so big in the yes of the united states. eyes of the united states. the u.s. is lazer focused on getting waivers down to zero? the u.s. wants to get its act on iran as much as possible. if there is enough oil, you don't need to use the waivers. let's see what today brings. brent is down 1.1%.

strategist, from j.p. morgan -- thank you. ♪

manus: good morning from vienna. i am manus cranny come alive at the opec meeting. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." nejra: i am nejra cehic in london. these are today's top stories. asian stocks and ftse futures rise, but u.s. futures point lower, even as powell praises the u.s. economy ahead of today's jobs report. theresa may could push back on as vote on her brexit deal senior mps tell her parliament is to reject it. michel barnier says there is no room for renegotiations. no deal inside.

end talks in vienna and -- as rush holt back on curbs, oil slides -- russia holds back on curbs, oil slides. warm welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am back on the rooftop for day two of opec and non-opec. the latest line, the russians will consider adding 150,000 barrels of a cut. that is from russian news agencies. no deal there, but the question is how close are they doing a deal? the first time in five years they have broken up without one. the question i asked on this becomes thehe u.s. net exporter for the first time

in 75 years. markets are shifting. they are repricing growth. that is a key and if the critical issue is getting everybody in opec on board, perhaps without any exemption. that will come down to the iranians. good morning. nejra: good morning. it does come down to the saudis and on the tliv blog, some are questioning whether the saudis want a deal or not. you have the issue with russia and then president trump breathing down their neck. if we don't get a deal today, what kind of move could we see in the market? given that, the market has been bearish going into the meeting already. just under an hour to the european equity market open and what a glad but -- bloodbath it was in europe. the ftse 100, dropping the most the brexit vote. we have seen ftse pointing higher at 1.6% and dax and cac

pointing higher, so positivity coming back into the european market. we have been seeing a different picture when it comes to the u.s. futures. we are down .2% on s&p yesterday. the benchmark weakened losses, but ended ever so slightly in the red. are we going to look back and say this was an important repricing in equity markets that meant something or are traitors searching for reasons for why we have seen this repricing? it is not just about equity markets. the two-year treasury yield had dropped 10 basis points at one point, a significant repricing. we are seeing repricing around the fed. how much power does the jobs report have today to change expectations of the fed in 2019 in the bond market? manus: we are, indeed. let's look at the bond board because equities in europe, trying to find an upside. let me bring you breaking news from germany.

total industrial output falls by .5%. priced in a rise of .3%. labor cost prices are rising 1% on the quarter. that takes you year on year to costs rising in labor by 2.7%. that is a tight labor market but industrial output can be volatile, so it is dropping negative. another nail in the global growth -- in the synchronized global growth story. i want to show you the bond board -- have your say in where you think yields will be. we broke below 2.9% in terms of yield. u.s. treasuries are declining this morning, equity markets are trying to find their feet. the market is repricing. 61% probability of a hike in december and in 2019, the

probability or possibility of a hike, the market priced in barely .1% of a hike in 2019. you are looking at a tumbling and ratcheting down of the probability of hikes continued, even though jay powell talks about the strong economy. the asian session in context today. >> good day. modest gains, signs of a recovery but it has been a rough week. we are set for the first weekly decline in seven weeks for asian stocks. you saw the jay powell comments talking about the strong labor market, clawing back gains. we are -- china, pretty flat. still looking at trade issues and huawei, but tech stocks recovering. this was way down by health care and we are seeing taiwan and korea see signs of green. i talked about chinese pharma,

the biggest two-day plunge in years for these companies. the government is going to be driving down prices to centralized for treatment -- procurement program carried softbank, the massive outage in the cherry your, also down 2%. a lot of investor concerns on whether they can as wage those concerns. those concerns. we mentioned the falling yield, treasury alec -- rally weighing on financials. also, reuters reporting the u.s. is investigating huawei over transactions to iran through hsbc. that stock under pressure here. 5% after it was buying ibm software assets, but investors not liking that $1.8 billion price tag. back to you guys.

yvonne man in hong kong, thank you. today, the mliv question is all about the fed. significant repricing around 2019 and 2020. what would it take to stop the fed hiking after the volatile week in markets? reach out to us and the mliv team on your bloomberg. let's get the bloomberg first word news with debra mao. is said to be may weighing a plan to postpone the dealh vote on her brexit in an attempt to avoid a defeating parliament. may has the meeting -- been meeting with lawmakers amid predictions the vote will be voted down, putting the u.k. on course to crash out without a deal. the vote is still on track to be held next tuesday. >> this is in a balanced agreement, which i must say again, the only and best

possible one. debra: fed chairman jay powell has delivered a bullish assessment of the u.s. economy and labor market ahead of the latest payroll numbers in a speech to a housing conference. he said the economy is performing well overall with strong job creation and gradually rising rages -- wages. expecting a rise in payrolls cooling.pite possible opec talks ended without a deal on oil production cuts for the first time in nearly five years. after two days of discussions in vienna, saudi's energy minister says he isn't confident of an agreement when opec countries meet with allies in the wider group today. a proposal for a cut of one million. -- barrels a day has been left dangling in uncertainty. >> not yet. tomorrow. do you have roughly a target,

close to one million barrels a day? >> probably, but still debating distribution. >> are you confident you have an agreement set for tomorrow then? >> no i am not. debra: global news 24 hours a day, on-air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. nejra: debra mao in hong kong, thank you. gaining overall, european futures pointing slightly higher after a week of volatility, attention is turning to the u.s. job report and the federal reserve willingness to high -- called hiking policy. erased most of the s&p's losses. joining us, the multi-asset fund manager at mag. so much -- mnd. g. i have a chart that shows

traders not even pricing in one hike now in 2019. some, even questioning december. will a strong u.s. jobs report today be enough to turn this pricing in the bond markets around? >> we will see what the number is. i don't think one month data changes much. the backdrop is a strong u.s. economy. unemployment, 40 year lows and the economy looks very healthy. the market's concerns are things that will turn down next year and we us globally will feed through to the u.s. there is essentially no inflation in the u.s. at the moment. it is a bit below target, on a three and six-month basis so why does the fed need to keep going? if there are signs of stress and , that is giving you more rate hikes than you expected a month or two ago because spreads will widen and

that will go to costs of borrowing in households. you can't worry about slow data and fed rate increases. if the data slows, the fed doesn't need to hike much further. , i want to bring our viewers a breaking line. largermay see slightly oil cut them 150,000 barrels, the latest today. opec meets again. energy missed it -- minister says he wasn't confident last night. russia says they may cut 150,000 barrels or more. that is an interesting on the oil market. let's see how it plays out through the day. brent, fairly flat graphic on the back of that. we talk about the strength of the economy, jay powell talk about the labor market being quite strong.

that takes us to this question of the day. what would it take to stop the head from fight -- fed from hiking in december? what does it take to stop the fed? would it be a drop in wages? is it markets were data that stops the fed? tristan: the economic data is backward looking. it is generally strong, the backward looking. i think what would change the furtherth would be fallout in asset prices, credit spreads going wider, people concerned about perspective growth. the latest numbers have been softer. if there is not much inflation come i don't see why the fed needs to be on a relentless hiking path. they have rates into a sort of

slightly above zero real interest rate. they have moved a long way the last couple of years. nejra: you mentioned credit twice. i have a chart showing the not as of bbb's, it is white as it was another times of stress. if you are looking at the equity market and we assess so many questions as to why and what trade is focused on, if you look at this spread, does this give reason to be bullish on equities despite what some parts of the yield curve are telling us? equity: the repricing in markets has been more severe than the repricing in credit. not a massive move and we were carried equity markets are trading on less than 14 times multiple. that is where we got in q1 2016 when there were fears around china. commodity prices, fears around that and a global recession.

i think we are in similar levels of valuation today. manus: i want to bring another chart to you on wages. oneink today is going to be of those moments for the curve. this is wages. you can see u.s. workers getting 2009.ggest pay rises i suppose this goes to the heart of the issue, that growth is probably going to be reasonable, although not blockbuster. what do you make of the wages number and how does that play to your asset allocation in the u.s.? tristan: the conundrum has been why has wage growth been so slow at a time job gains have been so strong? and has been a conundrum why are people seeing a breakdown in which inflation and the wider economy? what you are seeing is what you would expect. it is not dramatically high wage inflation, but it is mas it --

modest and supports household incomes. it will be interesting to see the number that comes out. if there is a major acceleration from the current half, that will clearly create questions for the treasury market, but broadly speaking, wider inflation isn't a significant concern. nejra: thank you so much. tristan hanson, multi-asset manager at m&g. next, the worst day for u.k. stocks its june 2016, as theresa may discusses the brexit vote. we are still focusing on opec . , indeed. are opec talks broke up without a deal for the first time in five years. how fractured is the group? what is the confidence level in the streets of vienna? we discuss. the oil market is next. this is bloomberg.

if you are traveling to work, you can carry bloomberg with you on your mobile on dab digital radio in the london area. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: oil remains under opec ended day to of with no agreement on cuts for the first time in nearly five years. two days of talks, they wrapped up in conclusively after russia showed growing -- refusing to commit to a reduction. millioned cut of 100 barrels a day was left hanging after a meeting between opec and wider allies this morning. let's bring in a veteran opec watcher.

he is vice president of financial services at ihs energy. welcome to the show. you say this is an expectations game that they are playing. what do you mean? >> it is always good to bring down expectation. if you look at the last five meetings, they did better than expectation every time by lowering expectations. clearly, the -- they are negotiating different options and trying to show a better number than the number -- market is expecting. manus: are the geopolitics a heavy hand in that negotiating room? talking about trump. roger: the communication of the difficult.ll be what needs to be done is well understood. in many ways, watch what i am doing, not what i'm saying. manus: in terms of what they are

doing, what is your base case for opec and russia weighing they may be open to slightly more than 150 million? they say it is tough for them in the winter. your base case for opec and opec plus. it is a quid pro quo. would meanns opec opec is doing more. in the end of the day, we need to take one million barrels off the october levels. around november, bigger. 1.3. add the decline between september and november, that is another. manus: what would and opec plus cut of about 1.3 due to the price of crude? i have brent, 59.50. what is a cut of the magnitude you see? it will allow the fundamentals to work -- improve and over, do a $70 brent.

not immediately, but within two months. -- thewhat does america existential threat to the price of oil, this is about a market repricing to global growth, geopolitics, and the u.s. becoming in a net exporter for the first time in 75 years. roger: managing oil markets in the time of shale will be challenging. this organization will struggle because it is difficult. shale is growing at such a rate. grewthe last 12 months, we about 2.2 million barrels a day. 1.7 million barrels a day this year through september. it is difficult to that explosive growth. for the sourcet -- foreseeable future, managing your term. they want to clear this

market down, don't they. demand is the other side of the equation. are you concerned about demand? roger: i'm always concerned about demand, but it has held better than expected. manus: some people tell me not to be concerned about demand. ther: when you look at trade issues and how markets are reacting, the demand is also impacted by equity markets. when theto be because equity market is so volatile, this is not an easy thing to do. tail that wagse the that is dog. -- that is roger diwan. we will be tracking the moves from opec to non-opec, what will the russians do? there is no doubt, this market needs a clear signal and a little more confidence if you want to get that crude back above $60 a barrel as roger just

said. can retest the $70 in q1 as long as they did writing. -- did getan negative comments from the energy minister. is this opec or saudi arabia managing expectations? that deal, in question. speaking of deals in question, let's turn to brexit. theresa may weighing a plan to -- a vote amid signs of a landslide feedback at risk a political crisis in u.k. eu leaders mulling the possibility of minor tweaks to the brexit agreement. joining us on the phone, tim ross. thanks for joining us. great to have you. is theresa may likely to postpone the vote? what would she have to gain? she would gain is avoiding the kind of defeat in the house of commons that would be so bad, she would face a

leadership challenge, get rid of her as the u.k. prime minister, possibly a general election that could get rid of the conservative party in government. on course for crashing out of the eu with no deal at all. that would be the upside, potentially, if she can delay it and persuade enough people to come in behind her deal during that delay period. will she do it? that is the question. investedis, she is so in the idea that this vote is going ahead that pulling out now would be difficult, but not impossible. and the you k's health minister saying the vote will go ahead -- you k's health minister saying it will go ahead. will it make any difference to pollen -- parliamentary math. nothing substantial. michelle barnier suggesting

there is nothing on the table to renegotiate. to see what they can offer after 18 months of negotiations has delivered this deal. the crucial issue that is holding things up for the british parliament is the same one that bedeviled the talks all the way through the process. how to avoid border checks on goods crossing the irish border with the u.k.. unraveling all of that and starting again, there will be resistance in europe to doing that. k inone possible chin this is two days after the vote is due, european leaders gather in brussels for a summit and that could turn into a crisis meeting it all goes wrong for may. nejra: tim ross from bloomberg's government team. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the european open is next.

still a lot of questions with complacency around brexit. have the charts of a no deal receded. let's get back to vienna. ♪

anna: welcome to "bloomberg markets: the european open." we are live from the city of london. i am anna edwards alongside matt miller who is in hamburg following the leader ship vote. matt: what a wild ride we had in u.s. stocks yesterday. asian stocks, for the most part, gaining but u.s. futures are indicated to continue losses, even though european futures are up. the european equity trade starts in 30 minutes' time.