of uncertainty? a concern here, we had a big trading week opening a strong note. and investors recognize problems and for issipated several weeks going into the future, i think that is why today. seeing this we did get that afternoon here today. that is is technically driven. seeing morning you're them at the moment. sh and already tech under pf yoermer and apple how important rformance of the fact?

>> it is important in the final couple years of it. which i almost said it was to be seen. but so important that they have driven much of the gain and breaking down technically. it means this market needs to leadership an the bottom line is right now. here are no other stock was that same type of size to withstand, to withstand rotation in. and support the tape these are correct and move lower. >> energy stocks are not going to do it. good.

>> we're going through a nd uation of uncertainty a lack of visibility. you know, the united states to bankrupt russia, i feel like the u.s. gun is moving to this se our and we want to u technological strength to c constrain china. we are to shift supply chains ack on shore for high technology products. nd again, cutting into corporate markets. people don't know how this is going to shake out. e have an agreement, maybe we won't. >> thanks for joining us with 30 minutes to go before the close.

now, of course against the selloff back drop, you have the u.s. economy. and decent jobs report added 150,000 jobs in november. what signals are in there? bill, let me start with you. when you look at the report it e.s a miss on the whol as ou see this jobs report labor markets or do you see this as a start of a turn here? which is the 0 in.e we've been

continues and this should not be taken as god given for the new trend. >> it's interesting to see in macro school map you should say look what happened to consumer sentiment at the moment. gradual rate hikes are on the market. expectations go, things aren't that positive on the economy. looking at consumer credit 3:00.rs those came out at

might be able to see why. >> the fed is looking at these trends we've just looked. and i see as far as concern, i agree. the savings right but consumers have been dropping at the beginning of the year. and rate is around 7% now so consumers are not saving as much uld be used to or sho doing given how well the economy is growing and payrolls have grown. and i think going forward, erns of uncertainty. u say, numbers o came out $25 billion, what came out? tions to 15. a lot higher, markets said what

else is markets in the last half hour of trade. do we see an ak celebration oming to the weekend. >> rallies seem to be faded with the exception of yesterdays. you can see that happening and not supporting market. touch.rket lifted a after 10:00 data came out, of it. had none there is a lot of things

going forward and 90 days is a f time to put together a traited template of agreement to go forward. it's going to take longer and willing to give more time. >> everyone keeping an eye on the development and agenda and timetable for that. looking at what is going on data you've got economic showing the economy is doing well. you pointed to three-month average for job gains. replace it. >> let's tlak at it from a longer time perspective.

erned rates are going up and a new source of financing has come about which is sort of private equity. tal for thesef capi fast growing high tech producing companies is putting in change and a funnel a lot of the ands of into the h private equity. so i think the shape of the ng mittee is very good goi longer term especially those parts of the markets. we see the markets over, is that not on the private well?ng markets as when you say about new ways of financing these companies, will

be available if we're looking at valuations public own on the market? >> the private markets have r oven that story over and ove and there areo growing faster pace. and it's less important now because of 20% public fund private equity dominates that number. >> yes. it's something to keep in mind. issues.re big picture in this case there could be any

headlines and you're coming offty indexes lows. what goes through the minds of a trader? you're probably not going to get paid for it. and so there sed more risk and there is no down side.battle for you can see this kind of choppy trading.

ositions are being put on and taking off rapidly. we're going to continue to see this throughout the end of the month. of probably through the end well.ry as >> good. good. months.her couple >> it's great to get to his perspective, too. his we're joined by strategist. a that is just kind of oversold certainly a bounce back and your prior guest had it

right. it's oversold and it's about ble when you think cycle. 20 times and that accentuate g to that. tion aven't made your posi is there no point in taking on risk. how much positioning has been done from where you sit? ople still acti

activeactiv actively looking to turn their fortunes around you have to differentiate between long term investment funds and funds partnership not wanting long elerate the risk and only side of the ledger is fully invested. e is a lack of buying cape yinlt outside of what stabilizes swoons this is a and at rrection we have the end end of the day, you

could get it closer to bottom than the top. >> got it. pay attention to selling.t of the event report is the big day.he we did get a bounce in the immediate wake of that report. it's striking the degree to which that just couldn't hold and i think it shows that someone said it feels like a bear market. is that you will a good news and trade

agreement and truth from sunday, we've got to pop on monday and gone. d> we have a consumer number an we think the market is shifted it. of and it's hard to pinpoint it on specific thing.

is this what would ews item for a payroll report still positive but benign of real labor inflation. and so then, you get headlines ohn kelly is out and rex tillerson talking about what it's like working in the white house. u go in june, it's if yo it gets worse.

and you know it's important to the viewers and me to step back and say okay. what causes a recession? creates as sustainable decline in a bear market is a credit that comes and you go into a negative nment.ic enviro and all checks and traditional that i do and none of it is saying we're any before increased ssion with just comes down to balance untiltain it passes. ntioned how much more

is a ng made in and there team.s gathering s i want to know what you look to now. volatility.ng about is a major spike and drop and is a shock is a speak and obviously

someone knew what is going around with the sfo because no, i was calling around and for that ind a reason shock drop. so it's not as dramatic as that first shock. >> yes. it.ryone gets accustomed to thank you, tony for joining us. chad morgan in lander to continue the conversation. after encouraging jobs numbers indicating the fed would not necessarily plus pres ahead with the increases. > it's a convergence of three

things. equity here is a lower environment in the only here but across the globe. that you can't quantify. it's political risk. that is a rumor, that tells being a multiple financial to the system. so those three components is creating this volatility. >> does this say anything about now?market right

>> you need to get a couple can get n edge and you a spike in volatility. for u.s. s bad and with the united seeming to be on firm are you deciding that is it for the year? on duration within sleeve.d income

nd there is a certain equity and we'd be careful on the problems on an individual basis. you want to make sure they're grown and profitable. and the debt on their ballot sheet is clean. and. >> what is the next move we're mething. be make so >> there is a list of companies and and o buy and potentially there are pportunities to keep in mind value evaluation.

>> i feel like that can't be it yet. >> from a sentiment page gauge saying this is intense on the side. >> we're down 1%. 27%.it's >> it gives some gains of the year. youo answer the question if see credit spread severely out is a potential lien into that. everyone saying, the united states catches a cold and rest is he world catches the flu

problem is here that china as well as european nion, their growth rates are deccelerating. and. chad.ank you, let's dive deep into the market funds. >> i'm watching huds yn limited. i think it's a fascinating story. thinking of coming up with a cashier list store in airports. udson, it's of h hudson news. ng in, a of amazon comi

just a threat of it sends stocks much as at one point as 11%. what is interesting is that great. are not that they're ten year contracts for a like hudson. a look aty take the session erasing years to date loss or gain. now. extraordinary.

do with fears around slowing numbers and just entiment is a big piece of the into many of t them are bearish but this stock oken. control a buyer in hich confirmed a big move lower. this is reason to think

off take a look at that. rgins are d quarter ma under 11% having a lot of penny and n from jc department.he beauty that is coming into the here it's been petter but look.a rying to stay positive

and it looks like ing up with not keep kardashians. >> and sarah put it into per spiktive for us. eople re one thing p reading your blogs and reports are saying? look? this is a catalyst today? >> we've been having a difficult time. alfwaysaw a strong rally h through afternoon into close, have been saying we

still need to see losses and we're heading towards this see as a catalyst here for reasons to sell off. of there is a lot of erisking from institutional managers and we can tell they've been fully invested in this market. that the market is doing with. i think in part. buyer strike is a in the market.

we continue to look for really good ideas. we move our portfolio to high-quality companies where we have central balance and exceptional final stories for the next several years. scarlet: there you have the closing bell. stamp on it, or however you want to phrase it. losses greater than 2% for the dow s&p and nasdaq. nasdaq closing just below 3%. it was a rapid decline lower after gains in the first 40 minutes of trading. joe: not much of a bounce at all. pretty remarkable given that we had the bounce yesterday and the jobs report that could have provided relief, but it did not. caroline: i'm impressed that oil close lower. oil closed higher but the energy stocks close lower, why did we come off on the 45% ties. why do energy stocks close in the red? joe: if you're worried about

growth, maybe opec can't even get to that's left. scarlet: when you look at the weekly stats, we're looking at declines of greater than 3.3 -- 3.75%. week since worst march i believe. if you look at the year today performance, this has been going nasdaq is the only want to hold onto gains. you seen the dow and the s&p give up their advances for the year, turn into the red, and turned back and then now we are red again. caroline: let's get you into the action with the markets reporters. lisa: i think this week, the big takeaway from the week is that investors are seeing a slower pace of rate hikes going forward. you see this and to the two-year yields most productively -- pronounced. people are saying we don't even

know what the federal reserve will hike rates at all next year and possibly increasing trade tensions. perhaps that would explain this. take a look at flows out of closing rates etf. that is the two-year yield coming off of the highest levels . let's get the flows out of etf's. the blue line is the actively --aged leverage loan frond fun from blackstone. -- fund from blackstone. the other two are investment-grade floating etf's. these were hedges against rising rates and suddenly that doesn't matter anymore because rates may not rise on that much more. sort of us which in sentiment. abigail? abigail: the other story of the week is this selloff for stocks as scarlet was mentioning. the worst week for the major averages since march. this is the s&p 500.

the green bars represents an up week and the red bar of presents -- represents a down week. we have seen a big rally for the s&p 500 and much of that is from corporate earnings plus the tax-cut plan. that has stalled into this year's sideways range. this tightening coil or spring that is producing much of the volatility that we are seeing. the triangle we had earlier this year's, the buyers held onto it. now, the buyers have not been able to push off the sellers. the tellers are saying -- sellers are saying this uptrend is breaking. we also have an outside handle that speaks to outrageously wild trading. it is typically bearish which means we could see this entire area of concession push to the downside. could suggest that we follow the german dax into a bear market, perhaps go back down toward 2300 or so. this is truly a bearish start --

chart. taylor: caroline was talking about oil so let me explain some of the price action we saw this week. it has been a wild week in oil prices. yesterday, prices were much lower. we do not think opec would get a deal and today, it rose as much as 3, 4, 5%. if we did get a deal, let me recap the headlines. opec cutting 800,000 barrels a day. a fairly bullish outcome, better than the one billion that the market had expected. coming into my terminal, i want to look at how much u.s. saudi russia really becoming a major player. u.s. crude is beating out saudi and russia outputs. here are two takeaways on the meeting today, taxes are still happening. we were called out in the meeting in vienna. and number two, saudi arabia is increasingly reliant on russia.

russia's energy minister is a key player in that meeting. that is your oriole recap. -- oil recap. scarlet: thank you all so much. still with us is aaron dounn. the loss of this week are stunning. the dow off by 4.5%. the nasdaq off by 4.5%. equity markets don't like uncertainty and we have had plenty in the fourth quarter. we will continue to get uncertainty going forward as well. when you look ahead to next week , everyone says some sign of progress on the trade front is critical to easing investor concerns. what kind of headlines might provide relief year? -- here? aaron: that is a really challenging question honestly because i don't think the trump administration is playing the short game. i think this is likely to drag

on through december, well into january at the earliest. both countries have a lot at stake. administration. is willing to play the tough side for this for several months. i think they do follow the equity markets quite honestly to the extent they want to press issues. as a proxy for how they are doing. paste long-term, we're the midterm elections and trump is not overly concerned with the equity market today because he feels as though he can get that back as soon as he comes to an agreement with the chinese. i think the bigger issue was the cfo arrest in canada for while uwei.-while way -- ha i will see that being removed as a headline risk and i think that will drag on for quite some time. i think we are stuck with some of the trade issues for the time

being. like i said earlier, i do not think in december we will see big resolutions to a lot of the risk we are dealing with today. joe: i want to deal you -- ask you with that because we are talking about the calendar and new year coming up in a few weeks. ultimately, these are arbitrary things in the long-term, whether it is q4, q1, or whatever year. i get why managers for portfolios would be concerned. for the long-term investor, it should not make a difference. is there an opportunity to take risk if people feel for calendar reasons they cannot right now? aaron: absolutely. that is a substantial advantage for the long-term investor and that is why active management matters versus a passive strategy. we have an ability to take risks, take a three-year deal, take advantage of what i view as short term issues in the moment to build high-quality companies the compound over

time. that will accrue to our investor base and they will benefit over time. we view this volatility, we love this type of volatility. this is what we live for. it's hard for us to value and -- for value investors to find great ideas that are exceptional values all of the time. this is one we have built a portfolio for the next three years. caroline: [indiscernible] aaron: i think some of the really cyclical industries such as industrials, i think materials quite honestly. -- we had arning vsf.ng from the is ff -- i'm not suggesting that we don't get near-term negative data points to come out and say with q4 earnings in january. we want to really take it

vantage of the value stocks when valuation is really in our favor and we can build big positions. scarlet: what point would technology stocks become value place? -- plays? aaron: we are challenged and debate that all the time. we don't want technology companies that are dead businesses. we want to get away from value traps in technology. the sweet spot we are looking for is maybe -- there are larger tech cap companies like out for habet. out for bet -- alp if we were looking at regulatory risk, that would be a name we're looking at. joe: what about the international opportunities? domestic u.s. stocks clobbered international ones, particularly em. what do you think about international exposure? aaron: we are excited about international exposure. the removal of rate hikes from

the dot plot or from fed chair powell last week in terms of rate hikes and impact on u.s. dollar, i would not be surprised if we have seen a peak in the u.s. dollar and, next year, we take the other side of that. that makes emerging markets or developing markets more attractive. from theproach that u.s., value perspective may be from a multinational where we see a lot of relief from some of the struggles that many of the companies end up having. consumer staples is a perfect example. that has been a big example for globals and global consumer staple companies. growth in brazil, growth in asia, those are opportunities we look to play. thank youaron dunn, so much for taking the time to speak with us. that does it for the closing bell and for me. romaine bostick is stepping in for "what'd you miss?" we talk about the selloff with

david wu of bank of america merrill lynch. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

caroline: breaking news of a rough and to a week with a steep selloff. here's how u.s. stock markets closed in the red. we have the worst week for the s&p 500 since march. even turning red into the energy stocks as well. opec above and beyond production cuts that were not expected. leaving usis really off percentage points. for more on today's jobs report, let's bring in david will. -- wu. you're just come back from china. what is the viewpoint from your perspective of the u.s.-chinese relation echo -- relation? david: to really understand what

we are today, to a great extent, everything that has happened is result of u.s. midterm elections. coincidencek it is a day after trump lost the midterm, the north koreans canceled a meeting with mike pompeo. a week after trump lost the midterm, hamas fired 500 rockets at israel. two weeks after trump lost the midterm election, russian ships fire at the ukrainian chips. we always knew the chinese were watching out -- were watching the election carefully because they want to know is trump still the most powerful man in the universe. is biggest take away for me that they came to a conclusion and g20 the trump might now have a weaker hand. therefore, the biggest take away from g20 was how little

concessions were on the table. look at qualcomm. welcome has abandoned the takeover offer for quite a few months and pay $2 billion to break up that. the auto terror trump talked about, china lowered tariffs on imported cars. none of this is new. happeningat is really , and in many ways, this midterm election has weakened the u.s. negotiating position with china and complicated the u.s.-china trade war. joe: how much can you tie all of these things to the volatility that we have seen in the market? david: to me, the most interesting thing on monday, people said the trade war was finished but the market only when up 1%. the rest of the week was about the market unwinding the price. it is telling you the market has priced it in. you think the market is priced in a 25 billion dollar tariff?

i don't think so. i think the market will realize this issue is not going away anytime soon. ago, wallk or month street banks were forecasting we might get some resolution by q1 or maybe even before december 31 before the next round of tariffs go into effect. now it looks like it is open-ended. this will linger on for longer so any company that thinks about making major cap expending for the next couple years, they might now think twice. when you say they had not president, the issue that they had priced at in or that it was priced in but there were enough mitigating factors to overcome what risks there were? david: i don't think so. i don't think the data fell apart this week. the reality is that until now, even politicians are going to do what is in the

best interest of the countries that they serve. but there is no point for them to go on a collision course. until now, people have been expecting them to do the rational thing. things why this while i thing has taken hold. joe: do think that arrest is the biggest thing i know? david: the biggest take away from china was what extent, we may be this close from an anti-american backlash in china which is not happened so far. from that point of view, this over theory all chinese media, to what extent. been good beijing has at not letting the genie out of the bottle. we may be reaching that level

it to be difficult for chinese policymakers to make those concessions. it is where it gets very complicated. caroline: what does that mean for currencies at the moment? joe mentioned earlier in the week was the outperformance of the yuan. was that an olive branch to the or that is what the pboc was working on it that point? what we see a rally in the yuan and why does it mean they don't care anymore? david: the main reason is that if people were hedging against g20, they probably were searching the yuan as the most right edge -- shortening the yuan is the most direct hedge. we saw massive unwinding of short basin positions across the

board. that is all you got. much out ofmake too that action in terms of trying to explain what is going on in the broader market this week. romaine: when you are in china, how is this being telegraphed with the whole hauwei with the cfo. how is that being telegraphed to the public with the arrest and reasons for the rest? thed: after the -- before hauwei news came out, i love china. the important thing to understand is up until now, few ofny news that its trumping critical gets quickly -- that's quickly pulled -- quickly pulled. i think my understanding is that this hauwei news has been widely securely did in china. caroline: maybe the genie is

just starting to edge its way out of the bottle. , you will be sticking with us. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: we are back with david woo with bank of america merrill lynch. we talked a lot about china and trade in the last block. the other big story is the fed. and people wondering what the fed will do next year. how important is it to read the fed tea leaves and try to guess what they will do one hike, to hikes, or whatever. david: i love the fed. partly because i have a lot of

respect for jay powell. the reason is because he is not a professional economist. sometimes truth comes out. a few months ago, he said something that impressed me when whatid if you want to know we do next, don't listen to what we say, just look at the data. he is telling you the fed is not know much more of the economic outlook than anybody else walking down the street. two weeks ago, when he said he thatore dovish, to me was bringing the fed back into expectations. he says we don't know more than the market then why should we -- market, and then why should we presume. be much morell opportunistic. i personally think he will be more like a risk manager. aboutwhat is interesting

my ph you dissertation advisor, was that he started out as an international economist. he is probably the first international economist to serve on the committee. he said the world economy was slowing. from that point, you now have a chairman who is a pragmatist and a vice chair who has not outside of the united states. that makes me fairly optimistic that this fed will not over tighten and they will be opportunistic which is what you need to be. you basically change course when the circumstances change. romaine: if the market does not need to worry too much about powell, i want to go back to what you are talking about with the midterm election. did the market under price or risk coming out of the midterms, particularly looking into what is coming out of congress and not coming out of congress? david: i know the conventional

wisdom is that gridlock is great for everything. i had to argue the opposite. said, elections have consequences. this midterm election has produced [indiscernible] -- produced a gridlock. the last time the country went into gridlock was 2011. another -- i don't have to remind you that the republican party taken down by the d party -- to party -- in the last 10 years, i think that your with some more volatility. i think two dozen 19 could turn out to be a little worse -- 2019 could turn out to be worse. the country is more divided than

two dozen 11. i think mnuchin will be able to buy himself three months and push the hike out to june. trump will eventually have to ask nancy pelosi to raise the debt ceiling. the question is what will she ask in exchange. the most important thing to come out of the election was at the majority of american voters said across the line and partyline that the single most important thing was not economy but health care. only think trump and policy can agree on is that health care will be the defining subject of the elections in two dozen 20. -- 2020. more thans me anything else is that this debt ceiling hike is going to happen

when we run a trillion dollar budget deficit next year. i like this year, we are at 40% treasury with the bill and next year will be 25%. we are going to have a trillion dollar budget deficit and then the big hike in the debt ceiling. gridlock will happen. that makes me nervous. this election has resulted in gridlock which will complicate things in washington and complicate the resolution of the u.s. china trade negotiations. the only thing i'm optimistic -- , iting thing i can know would i'm confident in is the volatility will be high. i think the dollar will be weaker. on currency i love it is [indiscernible] caroline: we will have more on

that with david woo from bank of america merrill lynch.

mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. comey testified on capitol hill today. questioned himns behind closed doors on decisions made by the justice department during the 2016 presidential campaign. had an attempt to block the summits because he wanted his testimony to be public. a lawyer for the house judiciary committee agreed to make a transcript of the testimony public within 24 hours. comey was fired by mr. trump in 2017. the president is slamming his former secretary of state, rex tillerson. on twitter, the president said anderson is "dumb as a rock

lazy as hell and did not have the mental capacity needed for the job." the president added the current secretary of state is doing "a great job." during a public appearance in houston, tillerson called the president undisciplined and said "he doesn't like to read." has signed a stopgap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. the funds key government departments -- this funds key government departments for three weeks to find a resolution for their turmoil on the u.s. mexico border wall. jeremy corbyn expects the brexit guild to be defeated in parliament. government said the should resign or renegotiate the withdrawal agreement from the eu if mp rejects theresa may's deal on tuesday.

he said the alternative is a customs union with the eu. >> because some union, specific one in which we have a say on what goes on. and, our protection of what is right in consumer protections. mark: the brexit deal is proving a tough sell. prime minister may is under pressure to delay next week's parliamentary vote in hopes of winning concessions from the eu. -- for syria is appearing to the -- appealing to the warring sides. they said this agreements remain over a few names of those who would be on the committee. he added that the new violence in syria has been limited. whichre is no mechanism is keeping control of that.

towards the end of a major military conflict. in this case there could be incidents. it is not threatening the political process because the political process seems to have, at the moment, a strong sense of urgency. mark: he says his summer 20th briefing to the un security council could be his last before he leaves his post. he will be replaced by a norwegian diplomat. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: we are back with the research from bank of america merrill lynch, david woo. is it all about havens coming from the next two months?

david: next year, there will be serious questions about the safe haven options. next year you will have a trillion dollars in treasury. i don't think treasury will be that much of a safe haven. the r&b china's economy struggling and increasingly limited options, i don't think that's will be much of a safe haven. the euro, next may we will have the most important election in was will shipades to the populist parties across europe against the mainstream already -- mainstream party. the jury's out. people -- and cryptocurrencies are falling. , --his new world we are recommending buying the swiss franc as a hedge against a crisis in the u.s.. romaine: is at the only one

standing alone? we had the divergence in emlatility between the currencies and the volatility gap has narrowed over the past two weeks. is this every convergence we will see -- a re-convergence in the markets we will see in the next year? david: it's a divergence of different kind. this year has been about decoupling the u.s. from the rest of the world. next year will be about three coupling -- three coupling -- recoupling. however, and that's world, the best-performing currency will be the franc. the room for further fed tightening will be limited. large service countries will benefit -- surplus countries will benefit.

the rue question is, what should investors being on the lookout for -- be on lookout for as catalysts to feel better about? the two big risks is about brinkmanship between u.s. and china, trump and the democrats. the question is to what extent do the brinksmanship -- is the brinksmanship resolved. that has to do with the reaction of trump, especially with increased market volatility. i would certainly be looking toward the meeting next week between trump and schumer and pelosi to negotiate the deal on the wall funding is evidence to see whether there is room to cut a compromise. any compromise at this point may up ashing the market suggesting there is more room

for cooperation. i'm not telling you if it will happen or not. i'm just saying that is what the market will be looking for. caroline: great perspective to have you on the end of a pretty volatile week, david woo. thank you. breaking news coming out after the bell. facebook boost its stock buyback program a $9 billion taking it all the way up to $15 billion. facebook has been on a downward trajectory in terms of its share price. they have had concern over concern about leadership of the business and the overall model for funding this business and regulatory issues to come. we are not up that much. the market is not overwhelmed by its generosity. and in themodest grand scheme, it is not huge, but it is a sign they are trying to get more shareholder friendly. romaine: but the stock of a still 36% from the peak in july.

and the company still with close to $400 billion. when you add 9 billion to that, perhaps it is not going to mark too much in the overall stock price. let's continue our soul of coverage. charles schwab joins us. your perspective, will the volatility hit as we go into next week? >> the short answer is yes. we came into 2018 saying we were coming into more volatility. but trading being a component of that due to later cycle conditions and tightening conditions. none of those things will ease as we head into 2019. even 2018's volatility is nowhere near an extreme. it is up a lot from last year, but last year was the exception. joe: what do you make of the fact that one measure of implied

volatility on vix is elevated, but not crazy high. it was high at various points in october and much higher in february. are you surprised it has not broken out more? liz ann: you have seen sort of a different version of volatility, not necessarily picked up by the vix. if you look at how violent the swings have been in opposite direction since october. that is just as unsettling for investors and more so than what has picked up in the options market on the vix. we have to think of volatility with a broader definition than just that index measure. romaine: a lot of the volatility has been because of these geopolitical issues and things that are not lasting in nature. when you look ahead into 2019 and the potential earnings picture, is there still some hope that we might see some stronger growth on that side? liz ann: i don't know about that. the math of how the tax cuts

orked, you're just not going to see the year-over-year growth work in favor of earnings. that is why estimates for the first three quarters of the year are only in the six, 7% range. what is also interesting about that is that so far, there been little haircutting in the collapse for the prices. if you look at the pass of least resistance for 2019 and given the strength of the dollar which hurt exporters which has also not been reflected in 2019, we more likely to go with down from the mid-single-digit percentage increases. not up. unless we get resolution to this uncertainty of short order. caroline: what are the key catalysts for you as you look toward next week? liz ann:. trade clearly continues to be a catalyst. will not get an answer to hope -- we will not get an answer for

hope to an agreement but this has been driving volatility. in some cases contradictions, andjust want to the u.s. china statements said but even within the trump administration. as recently as today when you have conflicting comments being made by peter navarro, mary kudlow -- larry kudlow. trade will be a significant needle mover even if we know it is months down the road before we get the true answer from the negotiations perspective. ratesieve they will raise in december, but everyone is figuring out if they pause after december, before march or after march and how many rate hikes are lately -- likely in 2019. even there we are getting conflicting statements within the fed. some statements have been more on the hawkish side and others have been on the dovish side. joe: we talked about the

calendar and the idea of taking risk before the new year. how much stock to you put in that as an effect on the market and maybe this inclination to do much activity until the calendar term? liz ann: we do caution individual investors to be careful about getting too cute from a short-term trading's -- trading perspective because the fund managers and professional community are in the window between now and year-end where many are giving gains wiped up for the are trying to call back -- clawback gains. there will be more short-term performance related trading that happens by institutions and i think it would be difficult for an individual investor to navigate that in the next few weeks. we have been cautious this year and telling our investors to play on the more defensive side of things. under broadly underweight equities -- underweight global equities with our only overweight kind of picking up

the trading activity. caroline: liz ann sonders, great perspective on the markets. we thank you. further headlines in terms of politics on us. it terms -- looks like michael cohen is being argued by u.s. attorneys that he should get prison time. trump sex lawyer should get say u.s. attorneys. should getx lawyer prison time says u.s. attorneys. to the oilt's turn market because after a two-day meeting in vienna, saudi arabia, russia, and the rest of the opec

coalition delivered a bigger than expected oil production cut sending oil prices soaring. let's bring in jessica summer who has been following the action. >> it was a crazy day. saudi arabia said they were not given confident they would get some sort of a deal. analysts had different expectations coming into today. they did manage to close the deal 1.2 million higher than the one million they had originally had. joe: how significant is it for opec as an institution? it was looking like a pretty badly for them. the departure of cutter, not a huge producer, but the one country feeling it did not need to be part of it. and there was concern that there would be no deal. the fact that they were able to get an agreement. , how significant is that? >> very significant. that is why we have rallied and opec has shown unity with

importance to watch this relationship with russia. a non-opec producer coming into say it is wrecking -- willing to stand by them and come along and run this oil policy together. caroline: what was interesting to me was the market price action because we got euphoria in the oil prices and that dwindled as the day went on. where their new bits of news to concern or was it the gross outlook perspective that took the wind out of the sails? >> you have to consider u.s. production as well here. and how much prices may rise now that we have gotten the deal. saudi arabia's energy minister said they were breathing a sigh of relief, and they probably are. if prices go to 60, we will probably see more capital spending and production growth in the u.s. romaine: opec has gone back on some of its pledges to cartel production before -- curtail production before, whether we trust them now? >> they have laid out the

groundwork and they will watch their oil market. we have to keep in mind iran sanctions which is a big factor they will have to watch. caroline: fascinating perspective. we will have to keep an eye on overall protection and for the trump tweets in response as well. thank you, jessica summers of bloomberg. this has been a market volatile time, but a lot has been related to geopolitical and domestic policy. michael cohen- jail time as attorneys are saying. plenty going on capitol hill -- going on on capitol hill as james comey cepheid coming back -- says he is coming back.

comey said trump's attorney general pick will serve the department of justice well. he discussed hillary clinton's emails with lawmakers and they are trying to discuss if he will cooperate with the mueller probe. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

caroline: white house related news. the breaking headline a trump's prison timeuld get and that is what u.s. attorneys are arguing. in theems to be sentencing brief. we also had we had james comey up on the hill as well has been testifying at the house testimony. questions it should have been done in public. he's not sure they need to look again in a review of clinton's emails and trump's attack on the department of justice and fbi is "deeply troubling."

james comey says the notion of either process abused is also nonsense. cohen has sought to evade election laws in new york. we will get more on that for you as time goes on. meanwhile, the rocky relationship between the u.s. and china has everyone on edge -- the edge of their seats. uwei cfo was arrested. emily chang set down with brad smith. >> i think the trade relationship between the united states and china - is important. i think it has evolved in a way that it has two distinct pieces. i think it is extraordinarily important to all of us, get anng tech, that's we agreement between the united

states and china in this 90 day window. that started last weekend. we have roughly 84 days left. these kinds of negotiations are complicated and hard. let's all hope that goes well. the second, we are seeing real questions about technology. people are thinking in washington dc about technology differently from most other products. i think we are going to have a more nuanced conversation so that people can really learn more about how to is created in the world today. technologies that are sensitive from a national security or military perspective. there are many information technologies that are not. there is some information technology that is secret, but there is a lot that is not. does a lot of research that gets published as papers, source code made available online, there are products made with people -- made with

people working on them around the board. we have to have people think through an understanding of how the talk elegy information sector works and how different it is from other sectors that have long been important to the national security communities. policyle decide what they want, whether they are sitting in washington dc or beijing, they have the benefit of all of the information and knowledge they deserve. >> yet there has been a big potential wrinkle to any forthcoming agreement. hauwei hashallway -- been arrested in canada. some companies are reconsidering u.s. executives traveling to china. do you have concern about microsoft executives travailing to china -- traveling to china? >> i think it's too early for us to have a definitive point of view.

we follow these issues closely. this should all give even more impotence -- impetus to the importance of working through these issues. each national capital needs to define its national interest, but i also think the world needs a stable relationship between the u.s. and china. it needs to be a relationship that serves well the interest of each country, but also needs to be a relationship that benefits the world as a whole. whenever you have the two largest economies getting together, there is a responsibility to think not only about their own individual and collective interests, but what their relationship means for the world. the sooner we can think about the broad issues, and get clarity around where our governments want to go, i think the easier it will be for those of us in the tech sector and elsewhere to navigate through

what is a complicated world. caroline: that was the microsoft president speaking with emily chang. front fore technology you, we have the headline that facebook would up their share buyback. we understand it will be $9 million in addition. we previously said it would make it 15 billion in total but that is incorrect. there is supposed to be an additional $9 billion worth of stock bought back. we are up 1.4% after hours. romaine: we turn back to the mueller investigation. more news breaking that special counsel mueller does not ask for special leniency for michael cohen. they say cohen's assistance could merit concurrent time. joe: cohen has been helpful in the cooperation with mueller's inquiries. it's not just offering help but no special leniency being added. romaine: we just got the news a few days ago that he did offer

absolutely newsy for michael flynn. it's interesting that cohen doesn't get the same treatment. caroline: and cohen has taken a distinctive path from manafort in that's manafort seemingly is holding out for a pardon potential he from the u.s. president and has been misleading the mueller investigation. meanwhile, we have the viewpoint that cohen has staked his future on cooperating with the mueller investigation and it looks it will not help much when it comes to prison time. let's get more perspective from our reporter in washington. how important is this investigation in that mueller has not asked for special leniency for cohen. >> it might indicate that cohen isn't being cooperative or does not have much to tell mueller about the stuff he is looking into. cohen may not know too much

about russian interference in the election or trump's possible collusion with the kremlin. the real estate deal that he was a part of but that is not how that factors into the rest of the investigation. joe: big picture this week, how much more nervous should the white house be today versus where they were last friday at this time? the president's twitter account is perhaps an indication of how nervous the white house is about this investigation. of the maneuvers trump is taking with his administration right now, talking about replacing jonathan kelly with a new attorney general -- it has to do with the newe house going for a political climate, a situation where they are taking on democratic congress, his reelection, and the results of

mueller's probe at the same time. i think that has quite a few people in the white house worried. romaine: in that context, can you tell us looking around washington, given the climate that they appear to be preparing for, what does this mean in terms of policy and other legislative things getting done over the next few months or year? alex: i don't think it is great -- a great prospect for any legislation getting done. it will be severe gridlock for the next few years of the administration in washington. i don't think the house and new democratic house and the president will agreed much on policy rise -- policy wise. romaine: have you gotten any sense at the white house is looking to push any initiative at all? alex: no. the president does a lot of

stuff and makes a lot of news everyday. very little of it is policy-based. he has been talking about criminal justice overhaul of some kind of some kind and where not sure what he wants to do their. something involving -- there. morehing involving leniency for nonviolent offenders. i don't think that is a high priority for anybody in town. everyone is looking through the lens of conflict, gridlock in conflict, political fighting leading up to the 2020 election. caroline: have you heard anything new about what the white house did or did not know as it comes to the hauwei cfo? he wasohn bolton said aware of the arrest before it happened, the rest apparently happened -- arrest happened right as trump was sitting down to dinner with president xi jinping. did he know about it before the

dinner and not tell the president? the white house said the president did not know about it before it happened. we still don't know who knew what when. i saw a report to that xi was a formed of -- informed of the arrest during dinner. we don't know a lot about why this happened at the same time as the dinner. joe: one of our earlier guests said a concern for him was the debt ceiling spike coming up in 2019. is that something on anyone's radar? alex: not something we have been talking about much. we have bigger fish to fry right now. that will be a big fight when it happens. democrats might try to revive that and they used to have a revision to automatically raise the debt ceiling when the budget was adopted. they could try to reinvigorate that when they take over, but if they fail, it will be a fight. caroline: comey, cohen and hauwei.

it will be a busy week for you. thank you for that insight. "bloomberg technology" is coming up next. that is all from us on the "what'd you missd you miss?" team. this is bloomberg. ♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." in the next hour, details emerging and the arrest of thehauwei ceo as she appears in the canadian court. she was taken into custody in transit from hong kong to mexico. plus, we talked to a lyft investor as the plan to beat uber to the public market