tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg December 11, 2018 1:00am-2:30am EST
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>> good morning, i am nejra cehic live in london. >> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. theresa may reaches out to europe. the u.k. prime minister is on a mission to seek help from the european capital. trade talks move along. asian equities and u.s. futures suggest investors are not buying. in the rupee, under pressure, after the surprise exit of its central bank governor. we are live in mumbai this hour.
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that meant she would come to brussels with a more clear picture. this makes this look very difficult for theresa may. matt: you have been covering the story from day one? what are you hearing about theresa may's side? >> she is heading to europe today. this is ahead of the european union leader meeting. the european union has said, no renegotiations. can get from brussels is reassurances on the backstop. that's one of the key sticking points for the brexiteers. has delayed the
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vote. until when is anyone's guess. she may have to go back to lawmakers and give the plan for the government. closer we get to the exit date, the more pressure lawmakers will come under to vote the deal through. withing is tumbling along gilt yields. at the moment, it is looking like the parlor terry -- parliamentary map cannot change. >> you have to look at this in the bigger picture.
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in the space of 24 hours, it is just not credible that she could get this through. this is not easy. it will be painful. it will be very difficult to be open up for negotiations. the declaration is not legally binding. >> thank you. let's take a look at some of the reaction across u.k. assets. cable hit its lowest since april of 2017. that's where we saw the biggest
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reaction. euro-sterling going through 90. you saw the yield curve flattening. see a yieldn inversion over the next six weeks. the 30 year guilds are dropping some 17 basis points. to have been a pre-pricing across the prospects and the risks of a new deal brexit in the markets. we don't know if this is actually going to happen. these are just questions in terms of what could happen. huge uncertainty ahead. the markets are reflecting that. 's don't miss philip hammond
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keynote address at the bloomberg global regulatory forum this afternoon. we could get you intelligence as to what is going on from the government side. let's look at the markets in asia. juliette: another session in the red. this is off the lows of the day. we have seen a positive action coming through in some of the chinese shares. this is perhaps giving some sign of positivity to the u.s.-china trade talks. this is also higher today, slightly, after a 23 month low yesterday. you could see a continuing weakness coming through in japan. we're watching indian assets hit very hard after the resignation of the r.b.i. governor.
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there is one player that is doing quite well today in india. this is up by almost more than 5%. this is on speculation a new central bank governor could allow the company's ceo to stay on for longer. this has narrowly avoided being delisted in south korea. the stock has been up by as much as 26%. the court ing that tokyo has approved a 10 day detention. stock hearing the tokyo exchange is considering putting nissan on a securities alerts. -- securities alerts.
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>> i am in westminster covering the latest in terms of what happens next with brexit. theresa may has delayed that parliamentary vote. this is not the only story globally. we have state elections in india in into -- and the resignation of the r.b.i. governor. emerging markets are attractive in this year's route? we want to hear toward views. let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> theresa may is to meet european leaders to seat -- seek reassurances over the irish backstop. insistedprime minister four days the deal would go
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ahead. she is pushing the key brexit vote closer to the european union exit in late march. broad support for many of the key aspects of the issue, theree remains widespread concern. ,f we held the vote tomorrow the deal would be defeated by a significant margin. we will not proceed to divide the house at this time. micron admitted -- macron promised a rash of new he draws the line over the yellow vest crisis in france.
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he urged companies to pay their workers a tax-free bonus and would abolish a controversial tax on pensions. >> i accept my share of responsibility. i may have given you the feeling it was not my concern. i may have heard some of you with my words. i fought to shake up the political system in place, precisely because i believed very hard in our country. the rupee slumped to its biggest two-day decline in five years. this was after the resignation of the r.b.i. governor. he quit nine months from the end of his three-year term as governor and ahead of the board meeting on friday.
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global news on air, 24 hours a day and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. >> thank you. we are getting headlines across yhe terminal that the u.k.'s ma will meet with the european union representative tonight in brussels and on wednesday. towill continue to push confirm the headlines. the prime minister has postponed the key brexit vote in parliament, a vote she was widely expected to lose. to go untils britain leaves the european union on march 29, with or
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theresapresentative and may will meet today. do you expect theresa may to get anything out of the european union? when market investors look at people realize the backstop can always go. that leaves the customs area of which it would be part. >> if they don't find a solution to the irish border, they will stay in the customs union. a political decision can always be taken. there will be a hard accident at that point. it. at that point.
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one is against the increased chance of a hard exit. see this bizarre situation of long-term interest rates falling against the background of increased brexit uncertainty. long-term interest rates would on the basis of inflation and pound worries. then there could be the prospect of a hard left labor government. >> money markets repriced around rate hikes for the bank of england, pushing up the prospect of a boe rate increase.
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you saw long and yields dropping , -- end yields dropping. we could see a yield curve inversion in the u.k. in the next six weeks. >> it would be the height of rationality. you would have an increased chance of a hard exit. there would be a wave of capital outflows from the u.k.. the fact that the gilt market is going up on the basis of long-term interest rates could be longer than lower. >> thank you for your time. wall way cfo
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theresa may delayed the parliamentary vote on the withdrawal deal. index, aasia-pacific little bit of a mixed session in asia. a bit of a risk off day. indian rupee showing its biggest two-day decline in five years. this happened in the context of state elections as well. there are some concerns over whether the party will have uncertainty over economic reforms. wti crude is steady at $51 a barrel. there are questions in the market. >> if you are watching the slump, there was a bit of a gain for u.s. stocks yesterday. futures are trading down.
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this is in a different direction. we saw the cable rate rising a bit. at 12566.lding firmly is not really doing very much to the price level. ftse futures are gaining. it did much better than other european indexes yesterday. we saw the ftse down half that. it looks like the ftse could pick up and do well again today. let's get the bloomberg business flash. a judge in vancouver has signaled opposition to a request , saying it is cfo the cfole to guarantee
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would not become a flight risk. the hearing resumes later today. chairman and chief executive thise appliance maker says arrest is disturbing all chinese executives. >> you can't interfere with a person's rights without the ground for doing so. they have not given any reason. whoever travels to the u.s. now, they must be scared. >> gopro has decided to move production of most of its cameras out of china by the middle of next. gopro is being proactive in an uncertain moment.
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gopro shares closed down. -- down at 35% for the year. >> thank you. let's turn to trade. asian stocks are trading mixed. and american trade officials are discussing the timetable for trade talks, despite a diplomatic row over the rest of the walkway cfo. head ofing in the research at mufg securities. is there any prospect the rest be keptalkway cfo can separate from the trade talks between the u.s. and china?
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we are starting off from the position of u.s. weakness. there are a lot of headlines. china has been waging economic war for years. president trump calls that off at the last moment. the u.s. is serious about doing something about it. we have a lot of mixed signals. know if president trump will do a deal for the sake of wall street. happen.when accidents this is when the risk of war increases.
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are they not feeling the pain of the tariffs that have been announced so far? the chinese economy is slowing, without a doubt. that is quite a difficult exercise. >> thank you. you stay with us. pressure,s under recovering just a touch in today's session. theresa may is heading for talks in europe. the big question will be over when the vote is actually going to happen. the reaction in the markets suggests that there will not be a vote through yet. tune in to bloomberg radio, live on your mobile device.
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"all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. governments and the central bank is hardwired into the relationship. these last few months have been unique, for the reason of the public domain. this sets in motion a process. there is a meeting of minds on the issue. they are going to look
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elsewhere if india does not show promise. the growth rate has started to come down. a potential for an increase in inflation rates. a situation of the changing of the central bank governors. >> we are at losses in asia. you can see some read on your screen. most part, we are looking at losses. this wasn't a very big game. -- gain. is our bloomberg partner and our guest.
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lots of news with the r.b.i. governor resigning. how is that impacting the markets. the expectation was that the market would definitely react negatively. there is a complete seachange for what has been happening. you have a complete reversal from the losses you have seen. they were down about 1.3%. now they are reporting losses of about a third of a percent. we were at 74 earlier on. at you see it settling back
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71.85. >> thank you. what are you seeing? >> chinese equities are not moving too much. yuan, same story. volatility for the chinese currency. it has now spiked to its highest level since 2015. we saw the devaluation in the currency. it has skyrocketed up higher when it comes to volatility. this was a huge contrast from less than a week ago. that is when the chinese and the american president met. at 6.9.trading to thatetting close seven versus the dollar, but it likely won't happen. today is all about currency volatility. this is the pound.
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look at how much volatility has skyrocketed. it is significant that this is three months out. it will get us closer to that .arch deadline for brexit people are very scared of leaving the european union without a brexit deal. >> thank you. today we are asking the question, which emerging-market assets are looking attractive amid this year's rout? join us or talk to the team on bloomberg. theesa may has postponed
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key brexit vote for parliament. the pound dropped to its lowest level since april 2017 yesterday. jpmorgan's james sullivan says the chance of no brexit is growing. >> there are significantly greater odds of a no brexit outcome. it will have a dramatic impact on markets. there's some very interesting catalytic events coming for u.k. investors. >> thank you for joining us.
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it looks like theresa may is making a political calculation that the closer the vote gets to march 29, the more likely it is to pass. she wants to have a brexit that meets the instruction the british people made to us. this protects the economy and jobs. if you look at the withdrawal agreement, the bulk of it is very much welcomed i members behind it in the house of commons. it is much better than norway. canada-plus does not deal with the open border between northern ireland and ireland.
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>> many of my colleagues were unhappy with the backstop. we were unable to leave the european union on our own terms. the european union has said it will not renegotiate on the backstop. going to reassurances be enough to satisfy those colleagues that are not happy with the current deal? you have seen donald husk -- tusk tweet out that they will help of the ratifications of the deal. let's see what that means.
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let's bring something back that colleagues can support. you have those who want a clean brexit. they are both agreeing that the with the good deal, caveat that the backstop is problematic. >> sterling took a tumble yesterday. around therepriced greater risk of a no deal brexit. there a materially greater risk now, that the crash out of the european union? -- we crash out of the european union? i agreed or is a much bigger risk now, of no brexit or a
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disorderly brexit, where you slip into the 29th of march without having a deal ratified. both things are problematic. the brexit referendum will cause enormous democratic eruptions in this country. -- we saw the pound come down yesterday. >> will the prime minister of the ousted from her position before she even manages the brexit vote back to parliament? there is a clever strategy by the prime minister. she is attempting to deliver the final part of what i think is a good deal for this company.
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it delivers on the promise made to the british people. she wants to deliver a deal that works for democracy. >> what could the european union say in terms of reassurances on the backstop? sure thated to make the backstop is temporary. article 50 does not allow the backstop to be a permanent solution. i respect the views of my colleagues. it would be premature to preempt that. tusk says he could get
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>> there is one point in the minister's talk. chancellor merkel won the battle when she got akk through. makes it unlikely there will be any concessions for the u.k.. in german politics, we will have an unsettled time ahead. >> it is a very interesting point, especially in the fact that theresa may and angela merkel had been seen as allies in some respects.
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but angela merkel isn't going to budge on this backstop issue. you will stick with us. miss philip hammond and his keynote address at the bloomberg global regulatory forum. next, indian stocks slump. the rupee reels. patel abandons the reserve bank of india. work,ou are traveling to tune in to radio live on your mobile device or on dab digital radio. this is bloomberg.
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1:46 a.m. in new york city. let's check in on what is trending across the bloomberg on tictoc. the maker of marlborough invested billions of dollars in a cannabis company. cigarette smoking rates decline. bloomberg.com, asia's richest man and india's oli and telecom -- oil and telecom's daughter's $100n is said to cost
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million. and macron attempts to win over the yellow vests. and a preliminary iphone ban in china may push apple and qualcomm toward a settlement. of $11ould be a proposal billion. the huawei cfo will stay in jail. let's get the bloomberg business flash. a judge in vancouver has signaled opposition to a request i the walkway cfo. downs -- by the huawei cfo. the cfo said her husband would post a bailed to 11 billion u.s. dollars to gain her release.
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this capital expenditure is flexible enough to expand -- withstand we pricing. -- repricing. cuts may be needed to balance the market. to temperould help this. this certainly seems as volatile as over -- ever over the past couple of days. one company has shut its operations in venezuela and laid off over 1200 staff. workers arrived at the plant in valencia to find a letter on the gate is saying that the plant was no longer working. this is your bloomberg business
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flash. thank you. the resignation of the governor of the reserve bank of india has dealt investors another bout of monetary policy uncertainty. an country is racing toward electoral test for the prime minister. great to have you. it's been a volatile week in indian markets. we have the state election results coming today. a little bit of a double where me for markets. -- whammy for markets. what is the big concern here? there was a knee-jerk reaction to governor patel and
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his exit. another big event was india's elections. r.b.i. had ordered its leader to step down by the end of january. it's corresponding stock is now surging. whenever we going to hear about the next governor? when will it be named? government is really rushing to find a replacement. they want to name a full-time governor, but that could change.
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>> thank you for joining us. today, we are asking the question, which emerging-market assets are looking attractive amid this year's rout? >> i want to bring back in the head of economic research at mufg securities. at what is going on in the emerging markets, what is your take, considering the mliv question of the day. our emerging markets still too dangerous? >> they remain the center of a great storm. have seen a repricing of
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credit for several weeks. credit spreads have widened. if we are looking at the maximum it is emerging markets and private equity. >> you see prices dropped so much in some cases. do you see that in many emerging markets? are so far away in terms of evaluations. are seeing a big increase in volatility and equity markets. arbitrage between credit markets and the volatility in equity markets.
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the situation in equity markets, i would imagine there'd would be more pressure down on credit markets. tell me about the unsettled nature of equity markets. let's take this conversation global as well. goldman's model is showing that the market is predicting zero growth in 2019. has the selloff in global equities been overdone? what does that mean for emerging markets? >> there is a two-way process. the assets cycle and economic cycle will feed on each other. this degree of monetary inflation.
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this will feed back onto equity markets. and credit markets. this will give us a new lead to undermine investment spending. i think this is a two-way process. i would very much hesitate to say whether anything has been priced in. inwill be get a set cause 2019? the fed is already likely to par's in march. the big question from a istorical viewpoint sometimes the greenspan put does not.etimes it
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sometimes the fed pullbacks don't work. we're in that kind of situation. we are in a late cycle stage. we could make it a two day wonder. it may be because of paul new rebound in the cycle. are you worried that if we have a continued depression in market prices, we will see that negative feedback loop for u.s. growth? behind consumer credit is a private equity bubble. this is all very vulnerable. >> thank you for your time. brendan brown. up next, the u.k. prime minister
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matt: good morning, i am matt miller, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." may reaches out to europe, the u.k. prime investor and embarks on a mission to seek help from the european capital. the eu is open to reassurances renegotiations. trade talks move along, not letting the arrest of why ways ceo get in the way. macron promises new spending to end their yellow best crisis
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but indications are the protests will continue. ♪ matt: 108 days to brexit and theresa may has postponed the key vote in parliament but what happens next? in westminster. let's start with you, give us the layout. know theresa may was facing the option of whether to delay the vote and she descended -- decided to delay. it was a question of whether he would be voted down and she saw it as too much lower risk. we do not know until when and now she is heading to europe to talk to leaders there, to angela merkel in berlin. we hear she will meet
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jean-claude juncker. got she needs to do now is to the eu and see if she can seek any reassurances on the backstop. the has been the sticking point in the u.k., the eu has said it will not renegotiate but back at home it is a question of political turmoil. lawmakers in parliament will happen emergency debate on the delay of this vote. in terms of theresa may's position, jeremy corbyn was for a calls to call no-confidence boat, he decided not to do that. in terms of when the vote will happen, is it going to happen this year or by january 21, that is the deadline when the government has to go back to parliament and give its details of what it will do in a no deal brexit scenario. we heard the government is making preparations for no deal brexit. at the moment it looks in terms of fractions from market. now to maria, what is the
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reaction from european leaders in brussels? ofia: it was accommodation confusion but surprise and shock . everyone here was aware that she would not be able to get this done in the first round, nobody operated or expected the vote would go through. european leaders and the commission did think she would put it to a vote and head back to brussels. the fact she has decided to pull the vote and head to the european capital first does show that she does not have the numbers but also in the eyes of the eu that she is much weaker than they thought. concessions do you think theresa may can realistically get, are we talking about assurances or does anybody in the u.k. expect her to truly be able to get what the minister just told you he wants? as i said, what we
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have heard is that brussels will only give reassurances, they are not having any renegotiations on is thekstop and that problem, the question is where we go from here in terms of when the vote will happen, i asked my minister off-camera if there was a possibility that the vote might not go ahead at all, he said that would constitute a constitutional crisis. the question becomes one are the options? theresa may could see -- seekons, concessions, it is not looking like the parliamentary map is any different in terms of another vote getting through parliament area there are questions over whether we could see a general election, whether we could see a second referendum, whether there will be changes to brexit. at the moment, it is looking at more of a risk if the -- britain
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does crash out of the eu. this gets to march 29, the more likely lawmakers are to push the vote through but the parliamentary map has not changed. concernedets are about crashing out, you can see that in price action. i know you have to get back on the ground and continue reporting, let's take a look at what market pricing is telling bonde have german ten-year users falling so you could see the yield start to rise a little bit, but it is coming from such a low level, we are talking about 20 basis points that you get for lending your money to the german government for 10 years. italian bond futures are rising so interesting to see what will s budgetf france' deficit is more than the italian budget deficit, it will cause a political sensation and 10 year bond dealer -- futures in the
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u.s. could be down, we will see able bit of verizon. -- ma rise. -- of arise. the 10-year gilt yield dropped below 10%, dropping 10% to 1.6 percent. we saw yield curve flattening on the gilt curve in the u.k., peter chadwell saying we could see yield curve inversion in the money market pushing out the pricing for the rate hikes to not come until the end of 2020. that is the dynamic in the gilt markets, we will be watching that opening. in terms of futures, futures pointing higher up from .7 of 1%, is that to do with the weaker cable price we saw yesterday, dropping and hitting its lowest since april 2017. dax futures up strongly 1.2% and
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cac 40 futures almost -- up almost 1%. we could see a strong equity market open in under an hour's time. let's check in on the markets in asia. juliette saly has more in singapore. juliette: the most interesting part is what is happening in india, we had the net see -- gov. patel'ser resignation. is winning arty key election, you're seeing a lot of that weakness reverse in the indian market down by .1 of 1%. strong positivity and china, we heard of the phone call between beijing and washington overnight but you do have a stronger yen that is weighing on the nikkei that close down by .3 of 1%, bytralia's market rebounded .4 of 1% after falling to a 23 month low. a very choppy session, in the
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red for a second consecutive session. let's have a look at some of the other movers, we have seen a reversal coming through in indian stocks but the rupee and indian bonds. you have the rupee down by .8 of 1% against the dollar. bringing it -- the two day to close to 3% which is the worst today loss we have had since 2013 for that currency. weakness coming through in the philippines, the trade deficit whiter than expected and -- the trade gap, i should say. and 1010 -- tencent is up in hong kong trade, the pricing of billion ipo is around the midpoint. that could be $14 for hadr. asking a market question on the mliv blog, which
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em acids are looking attractive amid this year's route? -- assets are looking attractive amid this year's rout? let's get the first word news. is meetingmay european leaders seeking reassurances over the irish backstop as she seeks to win over pre-brexit colleagues. must certain defeat she pulled off a vote in parliament over her deal having insisted for days it would go ahead. parliament returned from its christmas break generate seven pushing the keep brexit vote close to the exit in late march. broad support is for many of the key us facts -- aspects of the deal, on one issue, the northern ireland backstop, there remains widespread concern. as a result, if we held the vote
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tomorrow, the deal would be rejected by a significant margin. differ therefore vote schedule for tomorrow and not proceed to divide the house at this time. president macron has admitted he lacked sensitivity to the concerns of regular people and promised a raft of new spending as he sought to draw a line under the month-long yellow vest crisis in france. in a statement on french television, he urged companies to pay their workers a tax-free year-end bonus indicating the government would refund 100 euro a month increases in minimum wage and abolish a controversial tax on pensions. the echo newspaper reports the deficit will be close to 3.5% of gdp next year. share ofpt my responsibility. i may have given you the feeling that it was not my concern, that i had other priorities.
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i also know that i may have heard some of you with my words. i want to declare with you -- be clear with you tonight, i believe very hard in our country and i love it >> a judge in vancouver has signaled opposition to a request by huawei ceo. saying it is impossible to guarantee the ceo would not become a flight risk. post bail. would the hearing resumes later today. after a week of coalition talks, the center party in siu lin -- in sweden has rejected a [indiscernible] after anths inconclusive election which saw big gains. the center party says it is working day and night but there were differences and they were
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still too big. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. matt: thank you, the first word news. asian stocks are trading mixed in -- and u.s. futures are pointing lower after further discussions on trade between washington and beijing. top chinese and american officials discuss the timetable for trade talks by phone despite a diplomatic row over the arrest of always cfo. both sides signaled they want to separate the two issues. joining us is laura frosch. what do you think about the trade issue, how hard does this make your job? fairly difficult for most of 2018. that has been, it has been one of those issues that on the one
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hand supported the donald trump regime and the darling -- dollar arguably and it is causing the rest of the world to roll off in emerging markets with the strength of the dollar. it has been a year of two halves in trade wars are no good for anyone. matt: on the other hand, china's behavior in international markets, theft of ip, for example, not allowing any other governments to, any other countries to have majority stakes, that also cannot be condoned, cannot -- can it? laura: china has been unfairly treated but have treated other countries unfairly as well. we will see whether they continue to defend their currency moving forward into
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january with the round of tariffs either coming or not. it is -- has driven the rest of the world, trade tariffs and trade wars this year. will it continue in 2019, that is something we have been looking at. you brought upd 2019, let's take to -- this to your world of fixed income. all the questions around trade are leading to questions about global growth and what that means for the fed in 2019. i want to call your attention to comments from a legendary notstor saying the fed will raise rates, he sees them as the lead indicator. what are your inflation indicators telling you about the prospect of the fed raising rates in 2019? laura: that is a super interesting question and it is on the one hand and on the other
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hand. ultimately, you have got fairly strong data. you have a steepening curve in the 1030 space and the flattening curve in the 210 space. those are contradictory indicators anyway. we have got a number of indicators, auto sales, etc. telling us that this is late cycle and essentially, the amount of debt that there is in the world is resenting that inflation -- preventing that inflation from coming through, you have a dichotomy between what the market thinks and what the fed dots think. of december will be interesting, i believe they will hike then. the amount of hikes going forward into 2019 will be very much dependent on the data. they said they will be data dependent. lot about the a
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u.s. yield curve flattening, there is another yield curve flattening and that is the gilt curve, that flattened aggressively in yesterday's session following the canceling of the parliamentary vote by theresa may. sterling dropped and 10 year gilt yields dropped. the market is not yet fully a nong in the risks of deal brexit. would you agree? laura: i would agree. i would definitely agree and less time we spoke we said there was a dichotomy between the gilt yields which were still fairly high and sterling, which had dropped off. now i think they are much more aligned, the market has almost priced in some of that disarray, as it were. as you say, the open will be interesting and to see if that curve continues to flatten, it
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probably will because we are looking at projections of falling growth going through the next couple of years. particularly on a no deal. matt: thanks for joining us, we appreciate your time, laura frost. on the bring you more developments from westminster and brussels, there is a key interview you do not want to miss with u.k. chancellor philip hammond, and his keynote address at the bloomberg global regulatory reform will be here in this office this afternoon at broadcast we will that on bloomberg television and radio. if you are traveling to work you can tune into bloomberg radio live on your mobile device or on dav digital in the london area. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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>> it is worth the membership and of it comes down to it, -- if it comes down to it between this deal and no deal, i would rather go for no deal. this would not go for that year, this financial year, we have not decided yet about the and thethe currency, timing. we are interested [inaudible] it is 20 past seven in
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london. we are 40 minutes away from the market open. let's check in on how some of the assets are priced this morning. downan see asian stocks right now, not huge loss but s&p futures are down as well after slight gains in the cache trade yesterday. crude is unchanged at $60 a barrel. postponedy has parliament key brexit vote, you know that by now, she will instead head back to europe to see what concessions, if any, she can get to make the deal more palatable for the house of commons. can the prime minister make enough headway and if she cannot, what happens next? let's go down to nejra cehic on the green. joining me is christopher "akson, the author of
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political history of modern britain." a lot of questions over what happens next. did theresa may make the right decision to delay the vote? >> only time will tell on that. clearly, she has avoided what would have been a calamitous defeat. she lives to fight another day. this is in keeping with this prime minister. she is someone who counterintuitively keeps getting up in the morning where others might not. now a very difficult summit on thursday and it is hard to see what kind of concessions, meaningful concessions she can win now. nejra: back here at home we will have a emergency debate in parliament by lawmakers around what has happened. what would happen if this vote
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did not occur at all, is there any chance of that taking place? i was told earlier that would be a constitutional crisis. >> i think it would be a constitutional crisis and the real issue is we are getting to the point where the labour party needs to decide whether it's -- what it's position is, if it favors a general election or if a second referendum is something they would countenance. nejra: there were calls for anemy corbyn to call for election and he decided not to do that. do you think theresa may will still be prime minister by march 29? guest: she is in deep difficulty, i do not think anyone would deny that. i think she has a small window of opportunity. the only thing that is in her favor is the fear on her own back inches of the corbyn government, that is the one thing in her favor that she needs to work on when we talk to
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people in the city, you will hear people say and they have been saying it for the last two years, brexit is one level of worry, corbyn is another and that is something she needs to play on if she wants to stay in power. nejra: well the chances be any greater of this vote passing if it gets delayed to january 21 which is seen as the possible deadline for the vote to take place because the government has to present its plans for a no deal brexit to parliament. is this a political calculation by theresa may that the closer the vote gets to march 29, the more likely mps will come under pressure and they will voted through? putting a very dangerous game, isn't she? at one point that i have been , what is thet mechanism by which parliament can prevent a no deal scenario? we should not rest on our laurels and feel comfortable about that.
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if she is wagering everything on the clock ticking and that that weg, she may find enter into a no deal scenario that iswill go down and the last thing she wants. nejra: is there a prospect that brexit will not happen? it seems there are so many options on the table in terms of what can happen and this is one of them, too. guest: the people's vote looks like a possibility. that is where you can feel a swell of emotion in the country and within parliament. there is a possibility that if that happens, that we could vote to remain in a second vote. that is a fickle anchor can align itself anywhere, we see it in america with sanders and trump and we see it here with corbyn and the brexit vote. we -- you wonder whether that
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anger can align itself behind a second referendum. the other possibility is with the ruling from europe we may be able to revoke and that is another option. nejra: out of all the mp said opposer that would have voted this deal down had it gone ahead tonight, who is she most likely to get back on side? guest: that is a good question. i cannot see anyone in the hard brexit camp being happy with some tweaking in the language. there may be a few people at the cabinet table, i think that is her problem that it is difficult these rebelsny of and see much movement. and aid. we are in a position of great uncertainty. jackson here with me on the green. matt: thanks ray much.
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matt: good morning, this is the european open. we are live from our headquarters here in london. i am matt miller alongside nejra cehic who is in westminster. nejra: i am here outside parliament as we catch the fallout from to me -- teresa mays dili on her brexit vote. the cash trade is less than 30 minutes away. ♪
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