you heard the word recession today? >> a decent amount of times but in both ways. now people are saying, people are talking about the prospects, but many people are not expecting it either. we are coming off of our lows of the day. been worse, but we are off by almost 500 points on the dow jones. relative proxies, the havens, the utilities, real estate -- really a pain. see some we did buying in cryptocurrency. there is some diversification going on there. isoline: digital gold finding itself, and gold itself.

joe: people expect gold to pick up volatility and the is not been doing anything. the gold bugs are coming out of their hiding and we are having moment. scarlet: we have got a lot of anxiety before the fomc begins meeting tomorrow and announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. on wednesday. the s&p at 2.1% at its lowest. let's take a deep dive into the selloff with m a. -- with emma. emma: i want to talk to you about the companies that make all the stuff you buy online. seeing packaging companies as some of the worst performers in the as a be percentage basis. packaging corporation of america and international paper in the red. higher-than-expected inventory and weak demand and what should

be a busy season. analysts said the data was curiously weak. if you look at the packaging index, that is down around 20%. they have been hit by a strong dollar slowing the month of the the trade warand between u.s. and china. we will be looking for resolution on that front to next year. taylor: i'm taking a look at the s&p 500. it is often percent and look at some of his technicals that are going on in today's session. we had a redline with our support level going back to february. levelo had a key support come in this morning, 25.80. we crack to do that -- we cracked through that.

the percentage of stocks that -- verying below throughtrying to break the 26 levels because that is a classic bearish signal all heading downwards from there. are thinking they are going to be pretty cautious on the stock market going to 2019 as well and there is clearly some divergence between the fundamentals and what is really going on with all of the fed's massive liquidity injections. we have got some breaking news. have come out and they are looking relatively ahead of expectations, the second quarter of adjusted revenue $9.5

billion. revenues with the earnings per share, but an $.80 estimate. we are seeing basically flat when you are looking at the revenues and looking at the , butting income was out 2% this is a company that says about the strengthening u.s. dollar against foreign currencies, it would have been $140 million higher. caroline: but -- scarlet: let's get back to jonathan golub. lagger.gy has been a those technology need to lead us out in order for us to see the bottom? >> i do not think it has to but i think it well. there was a, that we were talking about homebuilders and

autos and how well they have been doing. there were companies that were you'reily shorted, that war covering the shorts and they were rallying. that was the that good news being reported on some of those, but as it relates to technology, the earnings profile is terrific. you saw this news announcement today. we are not seeing an earnings problem, we are seeing stock prices as an issue. joe: is the calendar in effect? jonathan: no. a big january effect was deal, people would trade ahead of it in december. and there's always a month of the year randomly that is going to look better than others. going into is not recession, the earnings are not falling apart, and if you invest when volatility is high, that is when you make outsized returns. is it today, week, or a month and from -- a month from

now? it is hard. point, is there anything that makes you change your sentiment? >> there is a possibility that the fed takes this too far. right now, the market is saying that the fed has one more hike. o far?hey push it to could be. squeeze the fed and also hurt profit margin, could be. that is my number one concern. looking for as quick victory on trade and i think that is much as i am really bullish, i think he believes this is a fight worth fighting and i think we are going to be living with the issue for a while. amelioratees the fed the concerns of investors while

taking into account the data is not looking recessionary? >> they have to respond to data. they cannot simply trade the stock market -- they are not helping. what they want to signal and i think what powell has done a great job is that we are getting really close to the end of cycle. what i would want to see is that the fed move this weekend basically says come at this point, we believe the risk is equal to the upside or downside, which would signal to the market at the fed is done. if they can give the market that green light, it is one next to rate hike would be very welcomed. scarlet: how is the marker respond to that? >> beautifully. the futures market is telling you that we are going to see something like that, where we have one more left in the cycle, but if you literally had something -- we talk about the balance with to be the fed's signal words, i believe it would

be well-received to. can we get higher on the s&p 500 for the year? if you take a look at what we had, weekend a half or so, we had a 5% rally in three days and i felt like the market was getting lagged, and then it rolled over. the one thing about investing in the market when the vix is 25 or over 25 is that the moves are really aggravated. we can wake up tomorrow and it would be a 2% are than percent day and it would not be a big deal. scarlet: we could easily close up on the nasdaq. >> one day to work. the volatility we are seeing, the vix closing up. great to get your perspective. meanwhile, we want to return to some breaking earnings.

numbersoming out with stronger earnings-per-share growth, up 19%. they say they can continue to give us record stronger earnings-per-share. we are up 1.9% after hours. but it's an analytical insight at bloomberg intelligence. a pretty good line. >> a very decent quarter. it is one of the few quarters and technologies that has not done well this year, and they are more influx, but these numbers are good. i've not seen the buyback numbers, but i am sure that is strong, too. this is one of the areas we think it is going to be very strong in 2019 and a very good quarter. joe: some fundamental drivers in place for i.t. and then people

of got very excited about a for the last few years, there is than a lot of market selling. but when you ignore the market, a lot is still in play. >> i do look at what salesforce did a few weeks ago. the tech spending is absolutely amazing. we think that fourth quarter is going to be a very good quarter for tech stocks. fundamentally, the tech center is very strong. a --et: oracle is a serial serial acquirer. we do not have the exact amount, and they are not to be big acquisitions, but is the company going continue to hoover up rivals with markets unstable and people not quite sure on tech? >> yes.

oracle has done that for a long time. a cloudook on application side, they have a strong portfolio. , there is still a lot of work that needs to be done because the next generation of cloud moves is still has yet to happen there. scarlet: thank you. our reporter from bloomberg intelligence. that does it for the closing bell and for me, romaine bostick is stepping in for what's y ou miss. this is bloomberg markets, the close. ♪

>> breaking news. stocks get hammered.

the s&p 500 closing at the lowest level in 2018. points left on the dow jones industrial average and volumes were up 30% compared to your 20 day average. let's get insights and welcome romaine bostick to the desk and also mike reagan. adams.a martin gina, your perspective here. through onwe broke friday and are supporting levels, and the technical deteriorated. then we broke for the february- march level and all of that shored off. we do not have a lot of supports that were forming really resistance to count on an interims. the next true level of support is probably 2500 on the s&p 500.

but you can remove 50 points pretty quickly, unfortunately. joe: i suddenly got a lot of notes on support levels. is it your sense that everybody has their level matter who they are, they are the technician? 2600 on friday looked like it might be a little bit of a support. the futures closed right on there and i think bad times like not when the earnings are coming in, we had some economic data, but it was not really supportive of risk that technicals take on a broader is lesst when there fundamental an intermission the trade-off of, we were eyeballing a bunch of them, the various lows throughout the year and do the them seemed to trick today. that is a difficult situation to be in. it is always difficult, but when none of these are working, it is not very confidence inducing.

we look a little more long-term because we got adjustments from strategists, and the medians are well over 3000 which is a 20% run-up from where we are. what is the case for that the percent to run up? go back to what created this downdraft in stocks, it was a peak in for its earnings estimates back in september and early october. that was combined with fed policy that was arguably quite hawkish. created a downward pressure on valuation multiples at the same time, earnings stopped improving. you have got to have those two really shift. said we are models already pricing and a third percent the next year. priced ine already

relatively hawkish fed policy. if we get confirmation from the fed this week, they are going to back pedal and that can help support the multiple. but what is going to create a final bottoms in earnings estimates revision which continue to move lower? they are down nearly 10% from months,ek in the summer so until you get some stability and earnings expectations, it is really difficult. you need to have a couple of things shift. romaine: i thought there was -- joe: i but there was a holding period. >>

expecting this quote, " hike. and i keep going back to this notion of year end, i am writing the letter to investors. i still think that cash, i think a love investors would be happy to hear their fund move into a decent amount of cash. cash is competitive. >> is that look at help support the earnings? >> it will help support some of the nondomestic earnings. -- a weaker dollar will help support. i do think it will help some of the cyclically oriented companies and some of the energy companies that have really suffered from the oil price crash we experienced over the fall, so there are pockets of

the index that help. the s&p 500 is 65% to driven by domestic stock. it is the importers that suffer there on margins. i would like to see the dollar start the turnover a bit. that eases some of the pressures we have experienced in some of the cyclically oriented groups, but you do not want turnover to o much. >> but when you have the trade policy and to the erratic nature of it and the difficult forecasting in it, how do you forecast where the dollar is going to be? >> most people use and interest rate differential to try to get an idea of where it is going to be. the trade policy is playing up our end creating difficulty. you have the dollar versus the yuan is being maneuvered in response to trade policy.

there is another angle of unpredictability that we are unaccustomed to using. can either of you answer a question? why are utilities and real estate that the worst performers on a day when treasuries rallied? why didn't bond proxies do better? >> today is a day when everything dumped. one thing you look for is utilities were making new highs, which is a symptom that the market correction was more about rotation than absolute market selloff. an example. all 11 sectors fell. is that our final capitulation dump? buts a question mark still, it is a symptom that the market has moved into a new corrective process that is more ominous. caroline: great perspectives. news.e breaking

red hat reporting its third-quarter results, coming in at earnings share of $.96. million -- $847 million. this is a company that is up 46% on the year. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> a $3.5 trillion powder keg. late friday night, a federal judge ruling that obamacare was unconstitutional. investors onjolted the markets reopened this morning putting health care stocks in one of the worst

performers of the s&p 500 today. not impactng will current or 2019 coverage, but there could be major ramifications for the industry. let's bring in bloomberg health care reporter. how many of these rulings have we gotten. -- what are people putting the odds on that this really does lasting damage? likely than not, this ruling is not expected to be upheld. legalome conservative scholars who oppose obamacare said that their reasoning behind this argument is a little strange. is certainly a risk if it is upheld in the form that the texas judge ruled on friday and that would be a huge disruption to the health care industry in america, but it needs to go to a circuit court and then at the circuit court upholds it, it would go to the

supreme court and you would have to remember that five of the justices on the supreme court wrapped twice already upheld obamacare as constitutional are still there. >> but even if this does get overturned at some point, the fact that it happened it is enough of a disruption for a lot of the companies per dissipating in the obamacare -- per participating in the obamacare system. how do they operate? >> the uncertainty is what they have lived with for a decade now. rulingback to before the r past and the continual attacks on in congress over the past few years. most health care executives are watching this, thing attention, but also, uncertainty is a part of their business and they are used to it. caroline: what happens now? >> that is a good question.

there is no immediate effect on people with affordable care act coverage. there is no effect on enrollment and 2019 and the trump administration was very clear shortly after the ruling came out that if you are shopping for coverage in next year, the marketplaces are still open. procedurally,ow, it is a little unclear. to beuling is going appealed, the california attorney general and other democratic attorney general's are fighting it. we are going to wait for a decision by a higher court, but it is going to take months or perhaps even into 2020. >> just to be clear, the government and the centers for medicare and medicaid -- they have come out to try to reassure customers about the state of obamacare? >> they have said the affordable care act is still the law and they will continue to enforce the law. one district court judge in texas does not have the power to nullify it for the entire

country. caroline: fascinating. it is here just day until 2020, if your reports are looking great. meanwhile, coming up, we are staying on today's market moves and check out the imap. are, both bond proxies , they are down 3.6%. >> no safety. caroline: energy also felt the pain. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ there's no place like home ♪

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"activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. mar: im mark crumpton with first word news. some members of congress say they want to reach a compromise to keep the federal government open, pushing the government to the -- government open. pushing the government to the brink of a shutdown, the white house is insisting congress provide $5 billion to build a wall along the u.s. mexico border. there is resistance from both parties. >> i think there are a number of chances we might avoid the shutdown. at the same time, i am not optimistic that democrats are going to yield on providing $5 billion for the wall. witham hoping that working mr. schumer and nancy pelosi

that the president will find a congress towith help this thing gets worked out. i hope it will work out. i think it would be very unfortunate. mark: without a resolution, parts of the federal government will shut out at midnight friday. the european union foreign affairs chief held meetings today in brussels with the ukrainian prime minister. they discussed the conflict between russia and ukraine. new tensions between the two broke last month when russian coast guards near crimea fired on and seized three ukrainian vessels and their crew. >> european union has been united and firm in saying from the very beginning that there is no justification for the use of military force by russia against ukrainian vessels. mark: he called for the release of the 24 ukrainian sailors who

were detained by russia following the incident in the kerch strait. erdoganish president said he received positive answers during a phone call with president trump on the situation in northern syria. turkey has threatened to launch a new operation against american backed syrian kurdish fighters. u.s. troops are based in the area in part to reduce tensions. saudi arabia has issued an unusually strong rebuke of the u.s. senate, rejecting a bipartisan resolution that put the blame for the killing of saudi journalist jamal khashoggi on the saudi crown prince. the saudis rejected what they called interference in the internal affairs. the senate called on riyadh the senate called on riyadh to take accountability for the murder of khashoggi in october. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.

>> now some breaking news. boeing has announced it is increasing its share buyback program to about $20 billion. it already has a share buyback program of $18 billion it initiated last year. it said it has bought back about $9 billion under that authorization, so boosting it to $20 billion. it also boosted its dividend to just over two dollars a share, relatively in-line with what analysts were expecting. we will see if that has an effect. sliding toities their lowest close in 14 months. for more on this selloff, bloomberg's cross asset reporter sarah ponczek. we were talking about it earlier, but one of the striking things is the selloff in the bond proxies. utilities, real estate, not only the worst-performing sectors. you would not expect that on a day when rates actually felt.

-- fell. could this be a capitulation sign that people are dumping literally everything, even stuff that is supposed to do well in this environment? sarah: a lot of people have been looking for that day of capitulation. you have high-volume, everything falling together. over the past month, there have been a couple days where we have heard people call capitulation and say, maybe this was it. i would not say that just because we saw a lot of selling on high-volume across the board that this is it, per se. >> we don't expect you to make the call. >> i can't make the call. peopleell you that many are saying this probably isn't it and we should expect volatility. meanwhile some companies still coming out with strong news, boeing boosting the vivax, oracle beating. it is not that ugly, is it?

concerns about fed? is it the recession word that keeps being talked about? sarah: it is a combination. into now it has spiraled concerns about a global slowdown, about potential for peak earnings growth, what this means for next year. when we think about the selloff over the past two months, a lot of people said it started off with jerome powell and his hawkish comments, then the trade war it up -- trade war heated up. check was going down and there were concerns about high-growth companies. now it seems this has come together and it is all about next year and what it means for global growth. so yes, in a way. but it is so many different risks and concerns that have mixed together now. caroline: difficult to pinpoint. sarah: absolutely. if you look at the fundamental news, individual company news, yes, you are getting strong is

that you would expect to give a lift, but right now it is the macro that is ruling all. >> you mentioned a full's errand. ol's errand. where is the money flow going? you do not see it in equities. it does not seem like people are really putting money to work in the way you talk about it. sarah: if anywhere, we have seen money going to short-term government bonds. we have heard a lot of strategists come out lately and talk about cash, saying this is something you have to think about going forward. sticking with someone from jpmorgan's multi-asset unit this morning, he was saying they have cut their equity allocation by 12% to 16%. with that done, they are looking for a time they can put it back to work. but things are going to have to change for that to happen. caroline: let's get some more market analysis on the selloff.

our equity strategist is with us on the phone. what are you expecting? what do you feel when you have this selloff when the market was meant to be in a holding pattern until wednesday? >> i think two different things. number one, we have a situation where the stock market has gone from worrying about higher rates causing a slowdown in the economy, to where people are starting to sell now because we are seeing signs that the economy is slowing down. however, the one thing we have heard a lot about in the last week is people are saying the fed may do a dovish rate hike. they will go ahead with the rate hike but talk much more dovish late about the number -- dovishly about the number of hikes next year and about their quantitative tightening. with this selloff, even though people are talking about it, the market is not pricing it in at

all. i have been cautious about the market through this selloff, but i think we are setting up for a nice bounce, which we usually get during a fed meeting, but this could be sharper than usual. >> what do you make that throughout this, the -- are still fairly muted? matt: that does say something about complacency, that there is not that huge amount of fear. that is why i worry that any near-term bounce -- it could last a couple of weeks, like the previous two. 18% october, 6% november. are we really getting the one that signals a complete washout? having said that, the put call ratio did go out about 1.5. that is not crazy extreme, but starting to get out -- get up. >> why aren't we seeing more in the visible area of the market, investors reaching for protection in the way we have

seen in past selloffs? is that a sign i should be more encouraged by what is happening? or am i missing something here? matt: to be honest, i never see it encouraging when you get this much of a selloff in the stock market. i would like to see more fear. you would like to see gold moving up, interest rates falling on the long bond, the 10-year note, because that would show there is fear and the bloomberg is finally seeing its final washout. we have not seen that yet, but that doesn't mean we can't get some sharp bounces. i think we will see the lows for december either in the next day or two, if we have not already seen it today. caroline: we saw the emerging markets outperform, even though they were trading lower. are we hearing about people getting into the long call? sarah: i have heard people say ems on their watch list.

they don't feel like this is the time to get in. however, it is something people are paying attention to, because if you don't, you might miss the large roll upwards. joe: when we do get a bounce, will it benefit those who went to the higher, riskier parts of the spectrum, like emerging markets, areas like that? matt: is that for me? yes. to be honest, it is kind of funny because last year everyone was talking about how emerging markets in europe were going to be the place to be in 2018. that turned out to be the wrong thing to do. a lot of people are now afraid of emerging markets. although i don't know it will have the reverse effect, a major rally, but they have over performed badly. iny are pricing in weakness global growth, more than the united states market is. i think there will be a great opportunity. i am not saying it will be a

blowout year where you continue to make 20%, but you could see a nice move, a nice contrary and move in the emerging -- a nice contrarian move in the emerging market. the dollar has been strong, but flattened out in the last month or two. if that rolls over, that could be beneficial for emerging markets. caroline: matt mele, thank you very much from miller tabak. fedng up, said rate hike -- rate hikes are good news. smart charges next. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: quick check of the latest business headlines. google will invest more than $1

billion to expand its presence in new york city. the company will move into new buildings on one street by 2020 and another by 2022. the move will more than double the current 7000 people it employs in new york. the owner of the new york mets says it would -- the new york knicks says it would sell the team if an offer was good enough. there have been feelers at $5 billion but no one has come through with a bona fide offer. he is chairman of madison square garden. u.s.nt loan debt as the reached a record of almost $1.5 billion last month, more than double 2009 when the recession ended. bloomberg crunched the numbers and found that loans disbursed in 2012 have defaulted at a faster rate than any other group. that is a business flash update. this is one you pointed out. the numbers are actually mind-boggling. >> it gives you a read of the job market when you think about the default rate on the 2012

loans. these were people in their late 20's, early 30's who should be getting into the peak earning years and it makes you wonder, is this a reflection of not only the job market, but the way to market -- but the wage market? >> thinking about the effect that has on other things. housing formation. why the housing market has not bounce back. caroline: even borrowers age 62 and older eight $62 billion. amazing. >> we are going to turn to smart charts with taylor riggs, where we look at the technical analysis of market groups -- market moves. oil.r: the story is so much technical analysis can be looked at as oil. we have looked at it two year chart of oil. we broke below $50 a barrel for the first time since october 2017. you have to go back to october to see it. 50 is a key psychological level.

below 49, come back up, and close again below $49 a barrel. i want to bring in mike, our bloomberg commodities strategist. not only thislow market, but a lot of the technical analysis behind it. the first chart we have here is all technical, all crude. walk me through that. mike: first of all, you see a distribution of traded prices. the key distribution is right here. the highest distribution of prices is right now -- right around $49.50. that is the key spot. it is not a level you get to a lot. there is a lot of wood to job, it is hard to get to that level. now it is showing come, indicating we will rotate around here for a while. $42 was below from june. topping around 67 is kind of unlikely. i think we are stuck between here and 60. 60 is key, because when we broke

below that, that was a signal of deflationary pressures. taylor: i really like the resistance and support levels. you and i were talking about the clustering effect happening late 2016-early 2017. we broke above, fallen back through, and we expect more clustering. mike: clustering i think is a good way to describe it. that is what it did before. fundamentals have shifted. it is an oversupplied market. to get back above 60 will require something fairly strong. taylor: when you talk about fundamentals, we have to talk about the federal reserve. come over to this chart. i want to talk in my terminal here, gtv , about the goals and stocks and relationship to the federal reserve and rate hikes. we have the rate hikes. in decemberted back of 2015, making their first move. we are now looking for our ninth this cycle. walk me through how this is timing together. mike: the line in the middle is

the key, the average price for gold and the s&p 500 since the tightening started. that is a key level. gold is almost near there now. it will probably breakthrough. you see the s&p 500 going, too. look in the far right at the top. this line is supposed to be tightening. this is supposed to jump higher. the stock market is telling us, we probably don't need that hike, and if we do hike and the stock market continues low, it is probably going to be the last. taylor: quickly, what is this white line? there is a white line and two bars on the right. what are those levels? mike: the white line is the mean price since the fed started tightening for the s&p 500, around 2400. gold, 1260. we are back there now. as you can see, they are inverting and it is a classic case of performance going back the other way. gold is going back up, partly because the stock market is going back down. the key driver will be the

dollar. if the fed starts coming off that tightening acceleration and shifts to easing, that is good for gold because it is bad for the dollar. mike: -- taylor: i have one more terminal chart, stepping back into the technical. 200 day moving average. what is the significant of gold trading right at that line? mike: the significance is back at that level, but also this period here below the 200 day moving average is the longest day below that mean since the day grass in 2013, which means it is ripe to get back above. that will be a pretty significant indicator. what you see for the whole chart is it is stuck in a fairly narrow range. this is the narrowest for 36 months since 1999. in the far left, this is a distribution of price. we call this a bullish pea pattern. it is stuck in the middle and likely to extend higher. it is going to need some kind of

fundamental reason to go back down, like a strong dollar or stock market bounced and decline, which seems unlikely. taylor: all things bloomberg commodities. we could talk fundamentals and technical analysis all day long. caroline? caroline: great to get you there, thank you. coming up, china's billionaire factory has always spurred astonishing growth for china. china's glittering megacity is feeling the pressure. that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: now to asia. the chinese city that has never had it better. eight of the world's wealthiest people as residents and gdp expected to reach $350 billion this year. in an era of contentious international relations, china's billionaire factory is facing threats. for more, shery ahn. name that city. shery: shenzhen.

from hong kong, take a trade, then you crossover. you have these of proceedings going into china. we have seen some of the biggest billionaires in china come out of shenzhen. it was a focus of china opening up to the world in 1980. the first special economic zone set up there. the huawei founder coming out of there, tencent founder also from their. you can see under that function that out of the 500 people, more than 40 are from china. joe: people often downplay the ability of governments to centrally plan and create a city. a lot of cities do get denigrated, but this one, extraordinary success. shery: it all started under deng xiaoping and he set up these economic zones. had a special person assigned there where he would bring up the blueprint of how to develop this country. a lot of people hoped president

xi jinping would follow that --formance, the dow thing the deng xiaoping style of government. >> we have the big economic conference coming up there. what are we expecting to see from that? shery: more of the same. we saw last week a politburo meeting, confirming more policies to avoid financial risk, pollution, poverty. given that it is 40 years since the opening of china, we could see a bit more details and content to that end. caroline: not much optimism in the markets at the moment. are you expecting any optimism in asia ahead of this important meeting? shery: afterword, we had such a positive trait environment yesterday. this week was setting up to be pretty good. even then, countries like indonesia, vietnam, malaysia plunge because of their own problems, including goldman sachs and 1mdb in malaysia.

could be more negativity today. caroline: we will tune in to see how it unfolds with you. you don't want to miss her on daybreak asia at 6:00 p.m. the fomc holds the final today rate meeting of 2018. >> i will be watching more economic data. housing starts were november out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. >> don't miss our exclusive interview with stan on bloomberg surveillance. caroline: thank you for watching us now. >> have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> welcome to day break australia. >> i'm sherry. bloomberg world headquarters in new york. >> and in hong kong. we are counting down to asia's major market open. >> u.s. stocks slump to a 14-month low as investors weigh of the fed, political tensions and a possible government shutdown. the s&p 500 closed at its lowest since october last year. tech health care consumers leading