go lower in the middle of the year, then come back up. this year is the opposite. i think it is going to be hard for risk sentiment to really turn around. scarlet: that divergence between soft data and hard data again. caroline: it, the close of the day, the close of the week, tumultuous december, the worst on record. we will get a headline saying it has entered a bear market. so have other sectors in the s&p theand we are expecting communications to add to technologies. industrial, materials. there will be four sections not in a bear market. scarlet: not defensive. facilities, stables, what you expect. >> when you look at the technical measures, 90% of the , 85% of the s&p

500. 58%line: volumes were high, higher on the s&p 500. the quadruple witching. let's dive deeper into the action. abigail, what are you watching? >> it was another brutal day of stocks, the major averages closing down. let's break it down using the intraday chart of the nasdaq. remember it was higher, and fact all of them work. the by the dippers were out. but that has turned into sell the rip. that happened at the close, down 3%, down to 3% on the close, having its worst week since 2008. that is true for the dow. the banks we are talking about earlier, the tech stocks, take a look at biotech.

the worst performer for the s&p 500 that was standing out even in this, paring go. the worst day since 1994, the generic health care company, generic drugmakers facing tax issues in ireland, there corporate -- their corporate headquarters. but it is a risk selloff because oil is down, and investors now want to be in riskier assets and are going to the haven dollar, up .6%, on the year of 5% making the point that so many are talking about, everybody fleeing for dollars. for stocksss ahead whether we see capitulation bottom or not. take a look at this interesting chart, in blue, the longer-term chart of the s&p 500 in relation moving average. it is well below, 12%. that is more than the 200 day moving average and the correction of 2015 and 2016.

that leaves us to look at 2011. very similar to this year where we had all-time highs. at that point the s&p 500 fell below the 200 day moving average by 14%. wes doesn't -- this suggests could see more weakness ahead as investors look for the capitulation bottom. scarlet: a lot of weakness with the nasdaq tumbling into bear markets. still with us, these reporters. i want to pick up where you left off. you said now is the time to look back at your 401(k), rebalance asset allocation. what do you want to do? what should be the split between equities, fixed income, cash? how much risk should we take? >> depends on your age group. i encourage people in their 20's and 30's to take their age, subtract from 120 and they might want to think about that as

their overall exposure to equities. it is all about the equity debt mix as you said. the challenge is for the baby boomers. people like myself getting up there in years, they have got to decide their count is large. how much do they want to risk? to keep is diversification, not letting assets run in one area like equities been suffering a decline. put your eggs in more than one basket. old adage, and it still works. atoline: we are looking global equity 52%, the current target 54%. fixed income 12% for real estate. cash below 2%. is that something you can expand ? is it something you need to keep rigid? christopher: we actually look at managing in those ranges on a regular basis. my risk allocation committee

meets ad hoc. market --lity of this our cash position is something we need because we are mature. we pay out more in benefits and get more in contributions. we have been lower. we were underweight global equities. we were balanced between u.s. and non-us markets, but now we are getting near the bottom of the range, we will see opportunities to come back in periodically and by on these dips. -- buy on these dips. we are a long-term investor. we will buy in on the declines great we will not nail the exact low at a particular time. francine: i want to stay on the -- >> i want to stay on the issue of allocation. you could have done risk parity, thehave put money on any of major strategies that were out there.

so is it really safe to move more into bonds given we still don't know what the picture will be? christopher: in the near term, next week between now and the end of the month and year, there is at least a hope for a rebound that should be supportive of equities. my eyes are popping out looking so far inurns december. almost -13% on the s&p 500. , up 5%.at the tlt that is a big divergence in performance for december. you would think as chris said, you would think there would be something involuntary, rebalancing to account for that huge performance disparity and get you back to 64. reporter: that is quite a book and to the year. -- bookend to the year. year, tlt wast

the opposite. it was the best january in years, now the worst december since 1931. scarlet: plenty of u-turns going on here. we were talking about john williams. if his comment that the fled data the fed is flexible and that these are just a guidance, not commitment didn't give investors the massaging that they needed. what would? christopher: we believe in john williams. he is a sacramento guy. he is running the new york fed. people have to realize i don't know there is exactly a powell put. the federal reserve is looking into economic data. they are dependent and always have been what they are seeing is an economy that is doing ok and yes, it bothered me they said they would raise -- they put two. on the plot next year.

i would rather have them be open-ended. the market is going to hit oversold, and people will be more rational and come back into this market. looking at the opportunities, the u.s. is one of the best to be in. they want the dollar. they will be buying on dips but not until the first week of january. there is not a lot of trading. caroline: what are your views on emerging markets? christopher: even a year ago i thought they might be interesting because they were trailing behind a year ago. we talked about the feathering in but chose not to. they are still soft. the challenge is the dollar and this skirmish, fight, pushing back and forth between the u.s. and china. is it going to become a trade war? i get worried about the south china islands. there are numerous issues we are

constantly pushing and hitting on them, and i wonder whether it will be a huge risk in the emerging markets. it is an area we are watching. there will be opportunity, but you have to have that trade issue play out, then worry about hedging because of the strong dollar. i don't think that will go away anytime soon. when you listen to what people are telling you that you talk to, where do they see the dollar going for 2019? most of the strategists seem to be on different ends of the spectrum. cross you arewhat looking at. the sort of consensus view is that china will not allow the dollar to go past seven for the yuan. that is a consensus. to some degree that will dictate the trading of the dollar against other em currencies.

if it should go past seven, the question is what does it mean for trade tensions and relations? will that be the type of thing to make president trump sort of double down? i agree with christie. the trade news this week especially with the chinese hackers being indicted, we have deal anday from the armistice, and that is a big issue. scarlet: as we get ready to say goodbye, we are in an environment where bad news is bad news, good news is bad news. what will be good news? christopher: it will come back to earnings. that is always the underlying -- consumer sentiment, employment and earnings. we will get into that earnings season. the year-over-year will be tough , but it is the key point if it were getting corporate earnings.

this was a record year for stock buyback. you are seeing a reduction in the supply of the available stock in the markets. we will continue to see -- it will not be positive news in january right away but through the winter time, and i don't expect to have a january like last year, but we will have a volatile market. we will have to watch the china trade talk go back and forth. this is supposed to be the quiet time. you will still have fights. have januarylso earnings reports. thank you so much, see eo of casters and mark regan. that does it for the closing bell. next we are following the developments on capitol hill as congress apples with an impasse over the spending bill. does the -- grapples with an impasse over the spending bill.

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♪ caroline: i am caroline hyde. >> i am romaine bostick. ofoline: volatile week volatile day on quadruple witching. reporter: the question is, would you miss? -- what did you miss? caroline: demand for the border wall sending a shutdown in peril. more monetary fiscal support will be rolled out in 2019 as

china grapples with the economy. and tomorrow is expected to edge out black friday as the biggest shopping day of the year as shoppers rush to finish last-minute holiday shopping. remain: -- reporter: president trump spoke on the deadline today. mr. trump: it is possible. the chances are good because i don't think democrats care so much about maybe this issue, but it is a big issue. romaine: the senate is mulling it all over. we will bring in the national security team leader. how big of a deal is this, not so much in terms of how much of the government gets shut down but how could it get resolved? bill: we have had an open vote for hours on the senate floor to decide whether they can proceed

with debate to have a vote. we know mike pence and president trump's son-in-law jared kushner a meeting with chuck schumer to try to see if they can hammer out an agreement that would either prevent a shutdown or make it, shorten the time frame. we are waiting to see how that develops. a lot of the big government agencies have already received funding places like the pentagon. there are a number of key agencies like the department of homeland security, treasury department that that would suffer if the shutdown goes forward midnight tonight. it'lle: the other issue -- that shows is the defense secretary planning to step down. how much will that factor in not only to the defense department itself but the white house as a whole. bill: the news is really

creating shockwaves, and it hasn't gotten heavy bipartisan criticism -- it has gotten heavy by partisan criticism. some say it is a mistake, including mitch mcconnell. it has raised concerns about the future of president trump's foreign policy strategy and also the amounts of work on the plate at the white house when you consider the shutdown, the need to find a new defense secretary in the coming weeks, the need to confer a new united nations ambassador. there is a lot of balls in the air now, and to have it shut down on top of all of that makes things difficult. caroline: and for the markets. we saw target selloff saying volatility is around because of consensus happening at home because of political stagnation. soxdefendant selloff, the reacting that we might not see

much money go that direction, is that something that could render true? does it depend on who replaces mattis? talk there has been some that the department got eight $715 billion fiscal budget for 2019 and that going into the future they would have to come down. it is very difficult to imagine president trump agreeing to any budget cut for the pentagon. he has run his presidency and campaigns on a strong defense being promilitary, even as he bring troops home. i don't think he would look favorably on a reduction. there has been talks of the budget going up to $730 billion or more after 2019. he would be going into a presidential election 2020 not wanting to be the candidate seen as having defense spending. events goingious

on. with antocrats of debt, all-time high of debt, who are the people cashing in on the record them? this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: time for a look at the stories on the universe. looking at what people are reading. morgan stanley will increase bonuses for backers and traders. this is in the low to mid single digits. they jumped 17% in the first week of -- quarter of 2018. bloomberg.com [indiscernible] the third richest man and it is a billionaire. supermarketsngs in

and billboard along with the guinness world record book and ripley entertainment. bloomberg tagged along as he drove across canada to visit his new agricultural equipment company. he makes little use of cell phone or investment bankers. tictoc is looking at how tech is changing aging industries. is the finish -- the finished province of lapland -- digital markets turn from green to red if it doesn't move for one hour. a major change for the industry with the introduction of the snowmobile -- since the introduction of the snowmobile. you can follow these on twitter. romaine: a new breed of ultrarich you'll. -- fuel. the what's marginal --

some are shooting to raise the alarm about the rapid buildup and corporate debt. here is sally blackwell. what is going on? i was told clo was supposed to be safe. they were protected because they invested in floating rate notes and you would still get returns. the returns haven't held up. >> the industry likes to sate clo's are the safe thing because they held up during the last financial crisis. senior thingsally have defaulted since then, but none of us know how long or deep the recession will be. loans.s by leverage if they don't fend well if interest rates rise, we see a downturn, that could undermine the clo machine. romaine: was the market as big? >> it has doubled. demand has been high because

they serve as a hedge against rising interest rates. amidst credit markets where you struggle to pick up deals, they offer pickup. caroline: they are so tainted. even though you say they were resilient post financial crisis, they got tagged -- dragged through the mud during the crisis. many thought they reproduced bad loans and many people were left carrying the burden of that. tell us about how this clo boom has made people wealthy. >> you are right on the first point, they suffer the three acronym -- three letter acronym curse. record,had sales at a $125 billion of sales and clo's are the biggest buys of leverage loans. it dual company, not glamorous. you wouldn't expect a billionaire to be at the helm, but he managed to get rich

because he used the leverage loan market to pay himself and company dividends. clo's have been a driver behind those loans because they are the biggest buyer of leverage loans. romaine: a lot of that is fueled by investor appetite but we are shutting to see that faded. >> it has been tumultuous in the leverage loan market. we have had a record pace of investors, 3.3 billion from mutual funds and exchange funds this week. sentiment is starting to sour , moree of the approach damage than expected. they are a hedge against interest rates. some of that incentive has faded away. erik: setting up -- caroline: setting up for 2019, will it be a poor year? if they managed to some site --

to survive, will they survive the volatility going forward? our people reaping billions? reapinghe people billions? >> they could be easier for companies to issue leverage uy.ns clo's b we can imagine some of the fuel will come off the fire. romaine: one of the things some analysts have flagged is the idea that you are getting weaker investor protection data and that might actually be sort of one of the big risks a lot of folks are taking on. >> true. people in the industry have been complaining how weak protection has gotten, and that really matters when a crisis hits. we can expect recoveries on leverage loans to be lower than everyone is thinking. caroline: i urge people to read that.

thank you. now breaking news on the shutdown, senator chuck schumer, the minority leader, talking about the spending bill. he says it will not pass with the wall funding as it is structured. he told mike pence as well as mick mulvaney, jared kushner this offer will stand as it is. ,e will see how that develops but the bell will not pass with wall funding. jenna: this is against the backdrop where the equity markets are having their worst week since 2011. we got the s&p down at a 17 month low. the market is already rattled about what the fed and economy are doing. now we have to worry about what the government is doing or what they might not be doing. you can see the dow down 1%, the s&p down 2%. nasdaq down 3%. caroline: the president prided

himself on the strength of the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪ .s.. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. the supreme court said ruth bader ginsburg had two nodules removed from her left longs -- lung. no further treatment is planned. she is resting comfortably and is expected to remain in the hospital for a few days. a divided supreme court will not let the trump administration begin enforcing a ban on asylum for immigrants who illegally cross the border. john roberts joined the more liberal colleagues today in ruling against the administration in a case in which president trump had

criticized the obama judge who first brought the asylum policy. barring an unexpected breakthrough this evening or over the weekend, washington could be headed for a lengthy shutdown with president trump facing new discontent from his party. he says it is up to the democrats if we have a government shutdown. his comments came as the senate began a procedural vote to take up a house passed bill that would pay for the proposed border wall and avert a shutdown. reportersent told there is tremendous enthusiasm for border security. mr.: one way or the other we will get a wall. anything you want to name it, wething you name it, but cannot let what has been going on in this country go on any longer. mark: mike pence has arrived at

the capital in case he is needed to break a tie on the procedural measure to a for a partial shutdown. -- to encourage a partial shutdown. senators are slowly returning to the capital from out of town. pope francis said the catholic church will never again clerk -- cover clergy sex abuse. he demanded that priests turn themselves in. he dedicated his annual christmas speech to the vatican bureaucracy to the victims of abuse and said this has shaken and caused-- papacy a loss of confidence in the hierarchy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. romaine: breaking news on goldman sachs, lloyd blankfein has stepped down as ceo and

chairman. we are being told he will stay on as a senior chairman to the board. this position doesn't come with a salary or any compensation. boardl be staying on the in some capacity as a senior chairman and what looks to be an advisory role. caroline: this person will receive benefits usually given to the managing directors. he will get a car, security rather but this is admirable doing without money. ross: it makes you wonder -- romaine: mix you wonder if this is continuity of management or he had more to offer and the company wants to keep him around. caroline: or if he needs to as they face the scandal like 1mdb. he has been tarnished himself. we will keep a close eye on that. the world now shifting to the second largest economy to work

with china. china is promising more stimulus. this as the standoff with the u.s. creates strange economic backdrop. many chinese officials are worried about the economy and eager to end the trade war. joining us is a cornell university professor and the former imf china division head and senior fellow at the brookings institution. thank you for your time. fascinating points of view you recently wrote in an op-ed looked at what you have seen, felt, heard. give us your perspective and in particular what you have heard from the government recently asked today, taking the foot off the accelerator when it comes to financial reorganization and deleveraging of china. >> the interesting thing i picked up on a recent trip to beijing is the economy is slowing down at some level for the right reasons.

there is a deleveraging campaign that has been on for a while and the government has a priority reducing the environmental footprint from the close -- growth model they have had for a while. the problem is it is biting too quickly into credit growth which is running the private sector in particular and the trade war comes at an inconvenient time when they are already facing domestic headwinds. this is the pressure in terms of the currency, which has been facing depreciation in recent months, and the stock market is not doing well. all of this has made the chinese government a little nervous about where the economy is going. they recently -- today as a matter of fact -- announced stimulus measures. they want to find a solution to the trade war making things mark obligated for them now. -- making things complicated for

them right now. i wonder if we can expect some more concrete stimulus measures beyond what we got today? >> the government seems to be exercising restraint. one think they have learned from previous stimuli is something that works quickly in terms of growth is- boosting an extension of credit that leads to financial boom but that also creates risks in the future which they are keen to avoid. so they have seen fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts and mild monetary stimulus. and seethey will wait whether these have an impact on growth and investor confidence for domestic and foreign investors before they undertake any further measures because they want to make sure finding the proper growth they don't add to the financial risks in the system. caroline: when we heard the

chinese announcement, we had sort of a walking back of what might have been deemed the so-called critical battles. one of the key prongs was financial risk. is there any risk amid the slowdown in market in during -- ignoring the monetary policies they have to throw at the economy and therefore by by deleveraging focus? >> targeting is the right word. the difficulty with the deleveraging campaign has been the private sector has been hit hard because not only has the regular banking system been brought under control, they have tightened on the side of banking -- shadow banking system, which has been important in financing the private sector. but the government is engaged in is a campaign to get the banks to men -- landmark to the

private sector. this is ironic because when you try to undertake financial reforms to get the banks to beehive on commercial principles -- behave on commercial principles, that is the difficult action they are trying to manage -- act they are trying to manage. giveg to get the banks to credit to parts of the economy that could generate better productivity, employment and so on. it seemed toticed exclude a lot of the restrictions we have seen before on property purchases and sales, things in those statements in the past. that seems to his appear this time. >> that is one thing i did pick up on my recent trip in concern, perhaps the tightening in terms of investment, credit growth and speculative real investment -- real estate investment, it may

have overshot. it will pull back a bit, pump stimulus into the economy, then do proper growth again. it could read just re-create the debt under control but there has been a bit of a pullback in the form i did measures in support of growth instead in the short run. cornell thank you, university professor. time for the exclusive new year may be coming up. the former fed president doesn't think tensions will go away anytime soon. he spoke with kathleen hays to discuss what you think of the biggest risks for 2019. >> the biggest risk would be part trade policy. we don't know what will happen with the u.s. and china in terms of trade policy. you could have a benign outcome. we see them buying more goods, better access to the market.

intellectual property rights, they agree, life goes on. going to press china on its industrial policy? if the u.s. expects china to give on that, they will be disappointed. if the u.s. can get something from china buying more u.s. stuff, they have agreed already. if the u.s. can get more access to the chinese market -- if the u.s. wants china to change its economic policy, that is where china will balk. how much is the u.s. going to push for? -- where how concerned is the chinese economy heading? we have seen the pboc doing more targeted lending facilities, getting active lending money into the economy without going

against deleveraging. it is tough. >> they have been trying to deal with excesses in the shadow banking over years. they are trying to tighten up, but the shadow banking system is the supplier of credit to the private sector. you have state owned enterprises, then the private sector. trying to hold back on the shadow banking system, they have been hurting access to credit. this has been happening many times in the last 10 or 15 years. you try to address one problem, that causes the economy to slow, so that they have to step off the brakes and hit the accelerator. they still have some tools available. you will see more chinese stimulus and the economy will not slow as much as people here. but there is a rupture on trade, the u.s. goes to putting 25% on all chinese exports

to the u.s., that would be big. caroline: that was our exclusive interview with bill dudley. britain's second busiest airport is open after more drown drama. details -- drone drama. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: senator bob corker announced mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer have found a path forward. they will be outlining this in the senate. we haven't got an exact timeline. we will see if it is imminent. there will be a path forward from this stalemate when it comes to the border row and shutdown.

, serviceshe holidays resumed in london gatwick after another drones spotting caused delays. over 36ere delayed hours. robert levinson joins us with more. i'm worried about this because i am about to get on a flight to london, luckily not gatwick. how much can this be repurposed? how easily, these two drones -- could anyone be using this? what is defense like for these consumer use goods? easy.s is you can purchase drones, go to your local best buy. anybody can fly them in, and they pose a tremendous danger to commercial aircraft. the case was getting sick into the aircraft on final. -- the worst case is getting sucked into an aircraft on

final. you can use radios to dram -- jim the drones. but all of these conflict with the aircraft and it is a problem. romaine: when we get to a point where we see this shutdown in an u.k., when you look around the world to other major airports, whether the u.s. or asia, or their preparations? are they any better prepared? >> i think every airport in the world and especially every major airport is worried about this problem and looking at it. there is a variety of technologies. some countries in europe have trained eagles are hawks to snag -- or hawks to snag me's. no one has come up with a perfect solution but the airport managers are always thinking of this, and now we can only increase concern.

caroline: is there going to be more regulation? what the u.k. has is a threat to be imprisoned, a five-year jail term, but it is not enough to stop these identified people -- we don't know why they are doing this. the secretary of transport hasn't been able to label reasoning, but is there anything from a regulatory perspective? >> there is one thing. china, a company that makes a lot of drones realized they were being used in the middle east by nefarious actors like isis. they built in a ship called geo-fencing that would prevent this from flying in certain areas. i can see the u.k. or united states mandating this be embedded in the drones. s program so they won't fly within a mile or kilometers of an airport.

you can override this, but it would be more difficult and would prevent sort of the accidental intrusion. if somebody was more deliberate, you would make tampering a crime. you will see effort on those lines to embed protective technology in the drones themselves. caroline: not what you want as many travel home. rob levinsohn there. now coming up waiting until the weekend to do shopping? you are not alone. this saturday could be the biggest spending day of the year. this is bloomberg. ♪

to bobe: according corker, he announced mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer, majority and minority leaders, will be paving a way for a path ofward amid the current risk a shutdown in the united states. the government shutdown on the linked touse of funds

the border wall. so we will hear from mitch mcconnell and from chuck schumer to announce the path forward in the senate. romaine: you. let's turn back to the economy because black friday used to be america's biggest shopping day but not anymore. get ready for super saturday. might even be bigger than black friday. we have sarah joining us from washington. how did the saturday before christmas turn into the biggest shopping day of the year? >> some of it is how the calendar fell. we typically see the weekend before is always a big shopping time but when christmas falls after a weekend like this year with christmas eve on a monday, you see last-minute sprint to the end. caroline: i hate to be a generalize or, but there --

, -- alize i don't have any data, but based on my anecdotal experience, that is the case area those are the last minute people for sure, the men. those shoppers and all will be looking for strong service in stores. you waited to the end, online shopping is not as much of an option because it might not ship, so you are going to a store and looking for where the line is moving fastest, where can i get the most expertise, and those are the stores that will be winners. caroline: i don't want to taint you, because my husband is better organizing than i am. it is not a gross generalization. romaine: all of my shopping is done. does this give an advantage to retailers with regards to not having to discount as much?

is the spending higher? desperate.o get more they become less price sensitive. one place retailers are looking to win is with click and collect. this is where you buy the item online but picked it up on store. -- in the store. you become the last mile delivery person. you do the last step and makes the order more profitable. it shows attachment spend. you come to the store to pick up your one order, something catches your eye and you spend another $20 or $40. what for that tonight and over the weekend, try to get you spend. caroline: are there any other clever ways? when i wanted something delivered online, i had to pay through the nose to get sure it would get there this specific date. same day delivery is becoming more prolific, and a number of retailers will be trying to get

you to do that. target another, but you will have to pay up. people resort to the e gift card because it is free, you don't have to pay extra. they can print it out and have something to hand people christmas morning. caroline: not as thoughtful but it is getting there. great to get your insight on all of this. -- there is no shortage on etf's for investors to bet on in consumer spending. here is one fund with a ticker that struck a chord with the gen xers. >> the vanguard consumer discretionary etf trades under the vcr. in a nod to one of the best consumer technology projects of the 80's. it is a fund with $2.7 billion in assets that tracks the u.s.

consumer discretionary sector. retail mix up 40% of the fund while internet companies are just over a quarter. the remaining balance is apparels, carmakers and home builders. amazon is the single biggest holding, comprising 1/5 of the cr. home depot, starbucks, tesla are in the top 10. vcr offers a low expense ratio and only discloses its holdings on a monthly basis. over the past year it had outperformed the s&p 500 a few percentage points. if you look back to its inception, that gap is even wider with vcr pulling away by 70%. this is a plain vanilla fund and gets a green light in the intelligence traffic light system. caroline: the good old days.

you can catch this with scarlet fu on bloomberg. that is all for what did you miss. romaine: bloomberg technology is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

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"activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. ♪ emily: i am emily chang. this is bloomberg technology. drones flying over a u.k. airport creating chaos during peak holiday travel. authorities are launching a criminal probe. a big investment by big tobacco pushes it valuation of e-cigarettes to $38 billion, more than spacex or target. is it worth it?