tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg December 23, 2018 9:00am-10:00am EST
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up on bloomberg best, the stories from this week in business around the world. the fed takes center stage with a dovish hike. maybe not as dovish as the markle hopes for. >> it is not really a bad thing. >> it is the exact circumstances meeting by meeting. >> central banks of japan and england stand tight on policy. people --oderate sinks and its first day of trading. china celebrating 40 years of reform with a message of
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resistance. >> very few mentions of the private sector or the market forces that have come into play in the last four decades in china. >> as global markets stumbled towards 2019 duncan miller shares exclusive insight into what is ahead. >> if you look at indicators i have historically used in business they are not quite red but they are amber and they are sending off warning signs. >> that is straight ahead on bloomberg best. ♪ >> hello and welcome. i am taylor riggs and this is bloomberg best your weekly review of the most important business news analysis and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a day by day look at the top headlines.
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on monday u.k. prime minister theresa may resumed her quest to bring it brexit deal over the finish line despite continued opposition from parliament. statement, the prime minister. facteresa may has pushed on the idea of holding a second exit referendum -- brexit referendum. to noters continue provide leeway to make her deal more attractive to lawmakers. she will push back against anything that is not her deal. you will expect her cabinet to be on the same page. does she have detractors in her midst? that be at revelation, a split in the british, the whole of the conservative party has been divided about this issue all along. reports about this movement for a second referendum gaining traction within her.
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they have come out and denied this this morning. she has been forceful in trying to rebut this. saying the vote was taken in 2016 and it is a betrayal of the british public if we try to undo that. i think it is undeniable over the last few days as it has become clearer that she will not get this vote. it will not be approved by parliament. a second referendum remains one of the only options out there. >> we will set out business on thursday in the usual way. i can confirm today that we intend to return to the meaningful debate in the weeks of january and hold the vote the following week. >> the s&p 500 closing at the lowest level in 2018. 2017,west since october more than 500 points lost on the dow industrial average.
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tied tois not fundamentals and it has not been for months. i think where we are making the mistake is to create these narratives out of thin air to recession andis a two months ago it was the fed and before that it was banks. there are variety of things that might be contributing. a recession i think is stretching it. taylor: chinese president says he is willing to push ahead with china's reform and opening up economic strategy but warns that any reform will only come from within the country. >> no one is in a position to dictate to the chinese people what should or should not be done. >> there were business executives here leading up to this speech who were hoping maybe the president would use this as an opportunity to
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outline additional structural changes to the economy, lowering trade barriers around market sectors. that did not happen. he spent a lot of his speech recapping the historical achievements from 1978, the start of this reform period. and also emphasizing the role of the party. very few mention of the private sector or market forces that have come into play in china. tore was nothing that speaks directly address concerns from washington and trade tensions. let alone the domestic economic pressure. wille european commission not impose penalties on italy over its budget. agreeing on a 2019 deficit and lowering italy's growth target. >> the eu has figured out to diffuse this. we don't want to battle you can win. the key issue is to reduce growth rates in italy. , theat what the imf
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european commission says europe will come in at 1.9%. i would give anything to bet against that. if they come in that one that is a good achievement. at powerbrokers here and some more moderate people that have -- the prime minister is politically independent and his finance minister was mocked. the markets didn't trust what he said. he had the final lap. it is a similar number to the for someroposed have had to back down. that would be the highlight here. president trump has not been shy to provide his views on what the fed should do. tweeting yesterday the fed should be careful not to make another mistake, warning about for the reduction to the balance sheet after saying continued rate increases would be wrong. >> if we get a dovish hike than officials raise the target range between 2.25 and 2.5%.
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interest on excess reserves goes up. officials try to keep a lid on the affective fed funds trading range. they add a word to their forecast, saying the committee judges some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate. plot only calls for two moves next year. >> our policy positions are not set in stone and they will change as information comes out. >> powell put the put away. >> markets are looking for a more flexible fed. a more we feel your pain kind of fed. >> marcus today off by 39 and 40 points come s&p 500 down 1.5 percentage points every single industry group in the red. >> clearly the markets were and a bit a bit more
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more of a feeling of love from the fed. i think the fed has done the right thing and said we are looking at the macroeconomy and the economic outlook the fed cannot respond to every time the market starts to move one way or another. we are waiting for the bank of england decision which is out. surprise surprise they kept the target at5% and the $440 billion, not a big surprise. >> as you look at what the bank of england is looking at in terms of the economy you might ave thought this would be situation in normal times were you would prepare investors for another rate rise in the next few months. the inflation was lower than expected and they are bringing it implications of the budget we had earlier in the year. fiscal policy will be supporting the economy. fastere wages picking up than the bank of england policymakers thought. holdthing completely on
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because of the endless back-and-forth over brexit and the lack of clarity on what happens in the end of march. >> u.s. stocks sinking today and hitting their session lows in part because of the rising threat of a government shutdown. it will be a part of shutdown but i shutdown nonetheless. >> this is unexpected. everyone got to the hill thinking this was a done deal. in the gop conference meeting it fell apart. he president made it clear will not sign a continuing resolution that does not include while funding. >> we will work on adding border security to this and keep the government open because we want to see an agreement. >> in the beginning of the year markets shrugged this off. now what some are saying is different is the fact that you have so many uncertainties that when you pile this on, especially when one of the certainties is surrounding global growth. anything can really tip you off.
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u.s. defense secretary james mattis will retire at the end of february citing differences with president trump. he made the announcement in a tweet. we have that letter from the secretary of defense himself laying out the reasons he is leaving, what were the key takeaways? the key takeaway was that general mattis said he had a strong belief and respect for u.s. alliances and a clear eyed vision of u.s. strategic competitors and malignant actors in the world. he said that was formed over a long career working in those areas. set the president deserves someone whose views were more aligned with his, was recently the announcement by the president that the u.s. would withdraw completely from syria. and othert mattis national security officials by surprise. now there is were the president
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is considering a full withdrawal from afghanistan. we have no idea where trump will go for his next defense secretary. >> republican senators are meeting with the president in washington on the brink of a partial shutdown. >> earlier today the president was tweeting out several tweets including, the democrats in the house and senate will vote against border security and the wall even though they know it is desperately needed. >> today the discussion has become about the filibuster in the senate because that is the only thing keeping the senate from passing the measure the house passed yesterday which would fund the government for two weeks and include the $5 billion the president requested for his wall. the reason that can't pass the senate is he needs at least nine democrats they get on board. the president suggestion was to get rid of the filibuster. so far mitch mcconnell is not ok with that option. >> it looks like we are headed towards a partial government shutdown at midnight. the senate is floating on it --
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voting on a procedural funding bill that includes $5 billion for the wall. it will fail and the question then is what republican leaders do and what the president can accept. still ahead as we review the week on bloomberg best and exclusive conversation with legendary investor sam druckenmiller on inside politics and policy from the former fed chair alan greenspan and longtime new york fed president bill dudley. now for this week's top business headlines. a new intelligence report on political meddling reveals that instagram may have more influence than facebook. were able tons grow to tens of thousands of followers. this is bloomberg. ♪
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taylor: this is bloomberg best and i am taylor riggs. let's resume our global tour of the weeks's top business stories in saudi arabia where the kingdom came out with its budget for 2019. >> saudi arabia spending will hit an all-time high in the coming year as the government cushion theouts to impact of rising cost is and will keep the business 2040 program on track. cost ofases the living. they are struggling with falling oil prices and anger over the murder of journalist amal khashoggi. revenueu look at oil the planned increase of 9% in all revenue from 2018 to 2019. given that brent crude oil price average of $72 per barrel this year, that implies they are basing and projecting or assuming on oil price of $80 a
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barrel in their budget in 2019 to meet the revenue targets. that is optimistic to say the least. the government can't have their cake and eat it. they have a choice to make. they can either stick to the spending plans and oil revenues might disappoint in which case the government would miss its deficit target of 4.2% of gdp. is, it commitsn to its deficit target of 4.2% of and it spends to a, that the decline in oil prices in which they miss their growth forecast of 2.4% of gdp growth in 2019. wti closing below $50 a barrel for the first time since october last year, down again this morning amid fresh concerns the production cuts by opec and allies won't be sufficient to
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stop a new supply glut while u.s. output growth. is this a sign that opec and allies are losing control of the market? >> the saudi energy minister when opec announced that said a lot of people in the shale patch would be thanking him because that would be supporting prices. that is not filtering through to the market. they are only doing about a third of the market. the market has to declined and we are seeing it come through now as they need to rely more on russia and as they battle this wave of shale. billionsf has approved of dollars in aid for ukraine as eastern european nation looks to stabilize its economy and pay back debts. the decision said with strength and stability of ukraine against severe internal and external challenges. the $3.9 billion bailout comes after to the country imposed martial law in some regions following its ongoing conflict with russia. payments were not
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forthcoming because reforms took too long to be delivered. are you confident reforms can be delivered this time? >> they have supported us once again. . think we have delivered we have adopted the budget for 2019 which is a very prudent budget with a deficit as low as 2.28%. i think we are on track on the reforms that will be on the 14 month program that will cover us through 2019. green light open -- through other concessional lenders -- taylor: from russia with likes? a new report by the u.s. senate intelligence committee says that russia most effective tool for iseading information instagram not facebook. >> facebook has to protect the instagram brand.
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people have been leaving the platform because of russia influence. instagram was a bigger player and got more engagement according to resources by sent intel. this is stunning because of how instagram works. it is not a final network the way facebook and twitter are. a instagram you can build very defined community within an interest group. on instagram there were black activism accounts, bowman is a feminismts, lgbt -- accounts that russia was able to grow to tens or hundreds of thousands of followers and get a lot of traction in those groups. >> steven mnuchin saying that washington and beijing will meet in january to negotiate a broader trade truce following a series of phone conversations in recent weeks. the treasury secretary says both sides are determinate
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to resolve their differences. >> according to mnuchin the u.s. goal is to have a verifiable and enforceable agreement on paper by march 1, the deadline for the 90 day truce that president trump and xi agreed to at the g20 summit. there are two factions in the white house. some of the china hawks who question whether or not the u.s. can count on any agreements made by china. about economic reforms given the experience with past administrations. mnuchin told bloomberg today in an interview that whatever is agreed to will include enforceable measures and firm deadlines for steps to be taken. japan made no policy changes in its final meeting of the year. yeartaining that 10 yields target of 0%. the policy balance rate at -.1%.
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>> i think the decision by the bank of japan was knows the prize. inflation -- was no surprise. their inflation target -- i think they had no other choice. with the fed sounding more an indicatorives by the decision by the bank of japan. if they make a policy change i don't think it will be any changes before that. the united states has accused two chinese nationals of coordinating with chinese security officials in a decade-long campaign against dozens of companies in the u.s. and abroad to steal intellectual property and other data. what do we know about these charges? >> we know that their computer intrusion conspiracy charges. what the government is saying here is that for 12 years a couple of hackers who are tied
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schatzker. >> if you look at thencent economic indicators, which i wish the fed did, they look at whacking indicators -- lagging indicators, they look good. if you look at the indicators i have historically used in my business they are not quite red but they are amber and setting off warning signs. >> what do you see? know isest economist i the inside of the stock market. thissure you have heard joke. the stock market is predicted -- has predicted nine out of the last five recessions. i will say with all humility that is better than the fed. the best economist i know out there is the inside of the stock market.
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when they look at the stock market and financial indicators, probably looking at the s&p. which wasthe s&p funny when i was preparing for this interview it was tended is now 13. mirage. barrage -- inside the stock market the cyclical elements of the economy have shown a completely different picture than the defensive part. >> something that is more sensitive to the economy. auto stocks are down 38%. they are not down 10 or 11, they are down 30. building stocks are down 35. banks which you think would be a are down.credit the russell 2000 is down over
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20%. retail equities are down over 20%. only be down s&p 10 or 11 when i was looking at these numbers. it is because utilities, staples and pharmaceuticals which are economically defensive are actually up. this is the same situation i used cycle after cycle. the inside of the stock market which is the best economist i know and i have used every cycle when i have invested is saying there is something not right here. interview took place before the fomc rate hike announcement on wednesday. up, interviews with former fed officials alan greenspan and bill dudley at the decision came out. bank of america ceo brian moynihan weighs in with his perspective on the fed and the economy. >> we are more worried about the factors outside the system, stock market price and stuff.
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taylor: welcome back. this week marks the one-year peak bitcoin. 172017 the cryptocurrency climbed to its value of just under $20,000. this tuesday it was trading just over $3500. that is when erik schatzker sat down for an exclusive interview. he runs a cryptocurrency bank galaxy digital. they think the worst of the route is over. for the next foreseeable future we are going to be between 3000 and 6000.
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if we plunged a 3000 they get worried we could go to 2500 or lower but i think we are close to the end of the move on the downside. in the last few days we have seen big capitulation in price and big spokesman. bign kelly u.s. been a advocate of crypto turned bearish on the lows. those are usually good signs and is close. >> a number of people in the crypto community say the cost of bitcoin has to rise because right now it is trading thousands of dollars below the cost to mine. what is your thought on that? >> not necessarily true. to cheappends on how you can get electricity, there are some places where it is cheap and mark spencer. it is how efficient your chips are. we really have not pushed through that pain point yet. >> you have come around to this
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idea that there is something different or special about to the othertive large coins at the very least. litecoin, i could keep going. the store idea, valuate. gold has real store value. aluminum to make cars and aluminum tinfoil hats and all kinds of stuff. gold is valuable because it is valuable. you could fit all the gold in the world and olympic size swimming pull, it is two swimming pools. beenhe golden has ever mind could fit in 2.5 olympic swimming pools. you can put it in the middle of central park. that is worth $8 trillion. that makes almost no sense. let's return to one of
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the week's central topics of conversation, the fed. among the most informed reactions to the rate decision came from two longtime fed officials. former new york fed president bill dudley spoke exclusively .ith bloomberg former federal reserve chair alan greenspan spoke with tom keene and scarlet fu on wednesday just moments after that decision. they discussed the political environment and the pressure it was exerting on policy. >> i am very much concerned about the political system. i was in the u.s. government from us 20 years. i never saw anything remotely close to what we are observing today and i think the economic outlook -- generous time with us this afternoon chairman greenspan let's talk about
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where we are in the american political system. you find a current to the populism or do we rebound out of is administration whether it one term or two terms back to a more traditional political system? what causedember the populism and what causes populism throughout the world. when the growth rate slows down. when the growth rate slows down you get a very strong political response. people saying we kill your pain. your pain get considerable attention. populism is not a philosophy like communism or capitalism or socialism. pain, peoplef helpless.
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that person historically has always been very effective in gaining public office. >> i know you don't comment on jay powell or any current fed chair i was wondering if you would indulge me in a hypothetical. what would you have done or what would you do if the president was tweeting at you and there was political interference, a public rebuke for whatever decision you make. >> we should explain to the chairman that tweeting is social media. i know you are not doing this at home. all these messages we see from president trump. look, the president and all other political figures have a right to state their opinions. government i was in for almost 20 years and i don't remember a single instance when
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a political figure whether it was the president or otherwise argued in favor of the fed raising rates. i had innumerable cases of the opposite. thet the end of the day thing to focus on is what is the fed outlook for growth, what is the consequence of that outlook for unemployment, what is the consequence of the decline of wages and prices. what the fed is saying is that they still think despite the softness -- slowdown in the stock market and a slowdown in global growth the stock market will grow at a record pace next year. >> what would you say to people who maybe don't understand what you just said? is there a point where a stock market selloff is so severe that the fed has way better -- >> if this went on much further for much longer and that changed the fed's view about the outlook. the fed is looking at the stock
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market and financial conditions ,roadly but also economic news what is happening to unemployment. gainneed to see employment . in various their view is the economy is growing about trend pace and we have a tight market, we need to slow the economy down. somewhat tighter conditions are not a bad thing, they are probably necessary for the fed to achieve objectives. >> if you were at the meeting yesterday would you have voted for the rate hike and can you tell us what your job was when you left -- dot was when you left and what it would be now? >> i don't remember what it was before. i was in the consensus. i think in 2018 most people thought the fed was going to do three or four. the fiscal stimulus at the beginning of the year change the story. as chair powell mentioned they
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thought they were going to do three but they did for because the fiscal policy with more stimulative than expected. next year two or three seems more likely but it depends on the economy and on how the outlook changes. if the stock market were to keep going down and the economy starts to weaken the fed will take a pause. part of the problem we have is markets want the fed to tell them how it is going to be. uncertainty onof how marketable reform and how the economy will react to that and how that will translate into pressure on resources and how that will translate to inflation . the fed can't be more certain about those things. a lot of uncertainty about all those things. capping a week of big exclusives on wednesday david westin sat down with bank of america chairman and ceo brian moynihan at their offices in new york. they went straight to the subject the financial world was buzzing about, the fed read on
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the economy and its policy outlook. clear for months, basically saying we have a view of where the rate is getting of a moreal accommodative economy are taking accommodation out of the economy . we think that rate is 2.5 to 3.5%. we are getting up to the bottom of it. of course they would be more cautious. leader ae economics few years ago say to me come plots andooks at dot gets excited but you have to think of a person climbing the mountain. the question meeting to meeting is where is the next handhold. it is not that they have some view of 17 meetings down the road. of what a normal view the comment would do if it went to 3.5% and rate structure was right. a lot of the path work was
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needed early on disabled this is where we are going. now we are there and it is back to the handhold to handle. i think chairman powell said data it is meeting and dependent. if unemployment stays tight wages continue to grow up to two to 3%, if conditions are still growth of the economy of 3% plus we will still tighten. the other hand they brought estimates to the overall economy down .2%. we did the same thing. we are more worried about the factors outside of the system. stock market prices are not there worried. all the geopolitical stock. what people are missing is when you get to neutral it is back to circumstances meeting by meeting as opposed to we are trying to get a path back. the balance sheet is the same thing. they are winding down. they have not had much impact on the rate structure. rates are not hiding as the fed
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taylor: this is bloomberg best. let's resume our roundup of the week's top stories in business and finance starting with more trouble are goldman sachs in this scandal involving malaysia state fund one ndb. >> malaysia has filed criminal charges against units of goldman sachs involving what it says or false statements made in relation to one mdb bond sales.
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goldman sachs as it will be grossly defend against the charges. the number of fines or the amount are really large. the fines on their own are large there is also the risk of reputational damage to goldman. in singapore we said the risk was also to the financials. as ae standing of goldman financial institution in the eyes of regulators worldwide. the attorney general in malaysia said that goldman has fallen short of any standard. not just in terms of the fines but also the standards and the compliance under regulatory compliance goals. in softbank, domestic telecom business have tumbled in their first day of trading. shares fell more than 14%. in tokyo.
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the biggest decline for a major debut in japan since 2014. this was the biggest ipo in raising $23.6ime billion. why did this huge and highly anticipated ipo fumble so seriously ? early one winter has come and japan. it is not supposed to be this cold this time of year. some people are calling it a soft opening. market conditions in a year where we talk about tight dollar liquidity close to christmas. the other thing that is boggled about people here is approaching this ipo -- 90% of this massive listing went to retail investors. institutional money largely kept away because they thought it was overpriced and they were buying a company that wasn't as rosy as the dividends yielded.
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just a combination of factors really. pfizer has agreed to combine consumer health care businesses and a joint venture controlled by the u.k. company glaxo creating the biggest supplier of over-the-counter medicines in the world. breakdown this deal for us, it is huge. who gets what? >> glaxo get the rhine share, 58% and pfizer get the rest. that is probably because they have the perspective of the ipo three years down the road. business andumer into that medicine business of vaccines and oncology. > in the midterm contributing relatively larger cash flows from this joint venture to continue to fund our number one priority which was
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the pipeline. we also give visibility to the eventual separation post-integration and as we have further progressed in our pharma pipeline that will allow us to reset the balance sheet. -- very much based on the science of immunology and onetics and new technology one new world leader in consumer health care. >>. 's>> souring the christmas season for retailers. they have lowered their 2019 sales outlook. it was lower at the open by 38%. given a sus was the retailer that was on it for so many years? >> they are blaming a few factors relate.
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the first one is consumer confidence has really slumped. not just in the u.k.. not just in france and germany. we introduced black friday in the u.k. and it is spreading across europe. that has consumers addicted to discounts. big price cuts have taken their toll. hitachi is buying a majority stake in avb's power grid division. up to 7.8to return million of the proceeds to shareholders. is this deal going to be expensive and will we see that in the share price? shareholders of wanted to get rid of this business for a while. the deal is on the expensive side. all the cost that are going to calm over the next couple of years as this deal comes to a close.
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the call option hitachi has come a predefined option that abb has come all of these things will scales anding on the what happens the stock prices over the next couple of years. ,ne of the big things for abb they have had activist investors trying to get them out of this. investors will cheer this regardless. >> more bad news for facebook. the district of columbia attorney general has just filed the socialgainst media giant for granting political data from cambridge analytic a access to users data without permission. jurisdiction of relatively small number of users, do we think this could be the beginning? >> absolutely. the company is being scrutinized by the irish data protection lawmakers. in the eu they are scrutinized with attorney around the country.
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if more of them pipe up to bring charges against facebook it could be a difficult situation to be in. sheryl sandberg this year showed up at the meeting of the attorneys general to give a talk about facebook and privacy. on howdrumbeat of news facebook has been floating what they promise consumers. it has been too little too late. this company is really coming under the microscope. first china and now qualcomm is seeing another legal victory in germany in its patent fight against apple. a court in munich says qualcomm can block sales of some iphone models. the band won't start immediately. qualcomm has accused apple of infringing on its patents. china said it would ban sales of certain iphones. what makes this ruling in germany significant as we are talking about hardware not talked where as was the case in china.
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>> the idea being that if it is software you put your programs to work and they rewrite the code. everybody gets on with their life. contrary to that here it is related to hardware which implies that if you are not successful on an appeal you have to redesign the phone and put new parts in there and that creates a lot more trouble for the manufacturer. >> hopes appear to be -- by a new charge. aggravated breach of trust. from the prosecutor's office. >> tell us more. >> prosecutors have rearrested the nissan former chairman on suspicion of breach of trust according to a national broadcaster. this is a surprise for us. many expected him to be released today which is why we are outside with the many media crews here outside the detention house.
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the next time he could be released at the earliest is december 31. we just got a copy of the prosecutors arrest warrant. it cites that he allegedly transferred personal investment losses on derivatives to nissan and collecting financial damage on the automakers. losses were estimated around 1.8 5 million. ♪
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tattoo that says opec go, let's look at it. it has this pie chart that shows production. this itty-bitty one down here. about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg and we always enjoy showing you our favorites on bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorites. here is another function you ,go. whichuseful, quic will lead you to our quick takes . here's a quick take from this week. has been a long time since electric vehicles had anywhere near the market share of the internal combustion engine. today it is still not close. in 2017 electric's made up 1% of worldwide auto sales but governments have always had an outside influence on the auto industry. possibly even more so than car companies.
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get ready for more electric vehicles. ance electric vehicles create third as much carbon as those running on gas some countries like norway france and the u.k. have enacted deadlines to convert all new car sales to electric. china is making the biggest push in part to tackle the air pollution choking it cities. >> china is the biggest market for electric vehicles. there are cheap programs in place such as subsidies for consumers. there are programs in place in china were automakers are required to make electric vehicles. >> electric vehicles have come a long way. the tesla model three can travel 210 miles on a full charge. only slightly less than the range of a traditional sedan. a few years ago buying an ev menton electric car. a comparable cost to a midrange vehicle. cheaper than combustible cars
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by 2035 thanks to battery improvements. it takes 30 minutes to recharge the tesla. many are forging ahead. spendlike us as it will 81 billion dollars to develop electric versions of all of its models by 2030 and next year volvo will begin phasing out models that use only gas. >> most of the companies that exist have unveiled plans to produce electric cars. they recognize the market is shifting in this selection and i don't want to be left behind. but 68% more cars in 2018 than the u.s. did. creating factory great electric vehicles could become the detroit of the 21st century. that was just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can find them at bloomberg.com. along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that will be all for bloomberg best this week.
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♪ david: you met your wife in high school? michael: we met in seventh grade. david: so you didn't date around when you were in the seventh grade? [laughter] david: can you explain how you kind of invented high-yield bonds? michael: to de-risk america, you don't want to be dependent on a handful of banks. david: you came down with prostate cancer? michael: i have lost 10 relatives. david: what is it you did that helped to change the way finance things? michael: we collect data. david: do you have regrets in your financial career? michael: sure. >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed, but ok. just leave it this way. alright.
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