into contraction territory. the president pledges a tax cut and china faces changes unseen in 100 years. plus, the greatest showman, president trump reports big progress he and china's president talk over the phone saturday. trump says a trade deal is moving well. ain management, after severe whiplash, -- volatility spikes, oil sinks. david: welcome to bloomberg daybreak. monday, december 31, last day of 2018. i'm david westin. it's been two weeks. alix: time's square at midnight? right there for you. david: i guess getting ready for it. we already had the dawn of 2019 already in auckland, new zealand. we're waiting for it in sydney as well.

i understand there are a lot of thunderstorms going on right now in sydney. alix: spend new year's when it's 80. david: here's the video from an hour ago in auckland. there you go. the sky tower in the harbor. alix: 2018. man that year went fast. not if you're an investor. this year was traumatic and you are probably hoping for a different 2019. get to the markets here. it's very caulk overall. you have equity futures pointing to a higher open here, 21 points for the s&p. it is the worst year, looking at the worst year for equities in about a a a decade. the superlatives are dramatic whether it's in europe, china, a eurodollar flat on the day. it's the sterling strong story. little bit of selling in the margin in the back end here. we're only 273 on the 10 year is

fascinating. crude up by 2%. it's hard to read into these numbers. i feel like you'll wait until the second week in january to see where the markets are headed. david: oil is up. alix: something's got to be up. david: we'll look at what's coming up this week. tomorrow, january 1, brazil's new president will take office. thursday is the first day of the new congress in washington, d.c. u.s. auto makers will be reporting their december sales. friday is jobs day. when we get nonfarm payroll numbers for the month of december. fed chairman jay powell will appear with his two predecessors for a joint interview at the annual meeting of the american economic forum in p atlanta. it's time now for the bloomberg "first take." we're ---joined by the bloomberg finance reporter. china data, p.m.i. data, manufacturing was disappointing. showing on the chart.

the white number is actually business conditions in china. the blue line there is the new export orders. and yellow, they are going into the contraction area. china manufacturing is down below 50. >> several different ways to look at this data. first it shows manufacturing is scloge down more than expected. as trade tensions pick up. you see them before the trade tensions, real ramifications go into effect. this raises questions about how steep the slowdown is. on the other hand, this isn't necessarily accounting for some of the stimulus, the chinese government has put into place. then other people say, well, chinese economy, the chinese economy is shifting from a manufacturing to a service economy. perhaps these numbers aren't as telling as they have been in the past as far as the economy slowing down. david: in fairness, you look at the services p.m.i. they particularred up. a -- particularred up.

-- ticked up. >> when people are talking about trade and manufacturing, they are looking for china to see any signs trade --the trade tensions are coming through and the economic data. they are doing the same in the u.s. the fact this gauge is starting to weaken is -- >> president ji an hour ago talking about they are facing a time they haven't seen in 100 years. over the weekend we got rhetoric coming out of china and the u.s.ment president trump saying big progress in trade. moving along very well towards a deal. even ji said it reached a vital stage and stable progress with the u.s. alix: that's a good sign for the markets. both leaders are agreeing to optimism. >> is it? honestly -- at the same time we have seen this movie again and again and again and markets respond. then they get foiled again and again. the interesting thing to me is pairing this with the economic data. we have this prospect for more chinese stimulus at a time to

bolster the economy. at a time when we haven't seen the full effects of the trade tensions. this is a big question facing the market. can can can can china offset the trade war with the u.s. with more struss? lisa: if they are realizing it's going to be incredibly challenging to do, that will force their hand and into an agreement, perhaps more than they otherwise would be forced to do. alix: also raises the point how much leeway do they have? they can't devalue that like we might have seen back in 2015 because then they'll have president trump to answer for it. >> exactly. you have to watch the u.n. make sure that it doesn't reach key levels that the chinese will then have to defend because that just flairs up the trade war all over again. lisa's right to point out the fact that we have seen this movie before. markets won't get behind this until there is an actual deal. headlines are nice. and they may be reassuring from one day to the next, we have

seen bad headlines head the tape. alix: do you think china cares about what trump thinks about the u.n. if they thought it was good for their economy? david: they care about their economy. alix: that's right. >> that seven u.n. threshold -- alix: would that have been possible? david: we care about right now, right here on the last day of the year is the markets. particularly stock markets. i was gone last week. i don't think anything happened, did it? take a look at these red bars going down. worst since 1931 as i recall they were looking at for the month of december t picked up at the end of the week. lisa: there is a big question what was driving these very unusual moves. that's a big question in the market right now. the other question is, how unusual this december is. is it the beginning of a more unusual pattern in markets, less predictable and punishing heading into 2019? december is usually the best

performing month. it was not. that's been the case since 1945. you also have typically not since 1970 have we seen the s&p decline this much when earnings have been gaining more than 10%. a lot of question marks here. question, is this a one off or are we headed for a very difficult 2019? alix: what that means for the dollar when you wrap in the fed, too. on the one hand dollar safe haven we saw that sometimes last week and the week before. you also have the yen facing steam. >> the yen will be the winner. the dollar again -- alix: thank you for helping me. >> the yen has been the fail-safe. thele toar haven status goes up and down. it's because trump affects the direction of the dollar. so far at that sounds to us like the yen will be the winner here. just because it is the safest

out of all the safe havens. the dollar, analysts are calling for it to decline this year as the fwrothe picture for the u.s. slows down. david: forget about 2018. it's almost gone. look at 2019, what can can we expect in 2019? specifically alix said wrap in the fed. what is the fed driving this? that whole punch bowl thing? it's coming away. what extent is that what's driving the markets an other markets we're not going to have that thrust anymore? lisa: a lot of people say this is the singular factor driving the stock market and all markets. even if you think about that uptick i was talking about, how layer it is to see markets go down when you see earnings growth, sustained, that points to a shift in the overall environment. what is that shift? that is the raising of rates. and we saw people would argue artificially high returns as a result of fed money. it giveth and taketh away.

alix: good to see you guys. thank you very much. you can find all the charts we just used as bgtv go. coming up, more on the markets' wild ride. a look at what's in store in the year ahead. we'll talk to christina next. this is "bloomberg." --

viviana: no japan another setback for nissan chairman, they have extended his day in jane for 10 more days. he has been locked up over allegations he understated his income by tens of millions of dollars.

today the worst quarter for oil since 2014 coming to a close. crudes plunge of almost 38% is dragging new york futures to their first annual loss in three years. those outputs promised by owe pk will be able to o counter booming production in the u.s. regulators in china have approved 80 new video game titles after the end of the nine-month freeze. china's giant gaming industry was hammered this year by the decision to stop the approval process. one of the biggest producers, saw it's market value 235u8 by about touchdown00 billion. china imposed the freeze as part of the campaign to fight gaming addiction. alix: thank you so much. stocks around the world climbing at the end of a dismal year. equity futures holding on to gains and optimism around trade talks. 2018 almost in the books and time to look forward for 2019. we spoke to investors and executives for the biggest risks going into next year. >> we're not immune to

geopolitical situations. for us to stay focus canned on the work we're doing is important p. >> trade is the thing we worry about. i do think the stimulus in the u.s. economy is more powerful today than the potential negative impacts of trade. >> we need to be prepared for a world that will be less global trade, more local. >> the input price pressures we're facing. not so much on the labor side but material and commodity side. >> the biggest headwind to our business is ability to expand. >> biggest risk is overheating. >> today with the modern bank everything is a risk. we turn the lights on -- >> whether it's geopolitical, trade wars, uncertainty. where you have to watch is when that manifests in people. worried about the risk of the slowdown and consumers quit spending. and unemployment goes up. it's always going to be in the u.s. and economics driven thing and questions of mistake in policy can can make it happen

faster. alix: joinling us, kristina here. the biggest risk for next year? kristina: i have to say there are two. it's balance sheet normalization as well as trade. those are the two risks we identified at the start of 2018. balance sheet normalization because as it continues it has the potential to be more disruptive. we saw this year it already has been disruptive, particularly in emerging markets. we saw that laid out clearly in an op-ed piece in the financial times by the r.b.i. governor at the time who said it is creating a liquidity stock, especially combined with greater u.s. government -- the second risk is trade. we haver would rid about this for a while. i don't believe that we're going to see any kind of dial down intention any time soon. or any great resolution. david: if those are the primary risk that is were driving the market months in december, so terribly volatile? kristina: absolutely. they have been driving risks

since october because they became more tangible. particularly when it comes to trade. because that was at the start of october we heard from the i.m.f., they were downgrading growth expectations for 2019. not just for china but the u.s. not just for the long-term but for 2019. and so that drove home, in addition to earnings reports, just how significant the risks were. we started hearing from companies who were saying, our input costs are increasing because of tariffs. we heard from companies that said that their supply chains were being disrupted because of geopolitical issues. alix: the other part, on the fox news morning show yesterday, the relationship to the fed. >> even the fed is understanding that it needs to communicate better. it needs to to two things in particular. one, show that it is more sensitive to markets and what's happening outside. the risk of spillback. what the president has called get a better feel for what's

going on. second, the fed has to realize it can cannot keep a really important policy tool on automatic pilot. that it needs to be more sensitive to what's happening. and i think that the fed can can regain control and we can stop these self-i flicted wounds. alix: if that's the case. if the fed is clearer, does that remove these risks? the two things you talked about have huge tails. kristina: certainly fed clarity would help. but fed action is important as well. if the fed does remain on autopilot with balance sheet normalization, it will be problematic t can't just be words. it has to be the intent to at least adjust. david: i thought he was being diplomatic saying it's a communication problem. i think they are communicating clearly. no, it's on auto pilot when we talk about taking off the balance sheet. he made a conscious decision to do that. what he's asking is a change in

fed policy. kristina: that's correct. what we have seen thus far is a good cop-bad cop can skenaire heo. where we have had jay powell come out as the bad cop and say what he's really thinking and believe will happen. and then richard card and others have come out and softened his tone and said, no, no, the fed is data dependent. no, the fed will be more flexible. and so essentially you have a fed that is urging along the fed chair in terms of trying to move in a different direction. it's not communication, it's action. alix: here's my problem. you look at the terminal and see this. market expectations as the eurodollar spread 2018-2019, 2019-2020. the white line shows no hikes in 2019. the blue line shows a cut. no matter what the fed says, the market is severely underpricing. aren't we going to have a rerating in the market even if we get to one or two from the fed or zero? kristina: we could see rerating.

i think what is very likely to happen is that we're actually going to see the dot plot slowly readvised downward n march i expect us to see one rate hike expected for 2019. that may feel more comfortable and appropriate. and then as we move along we will see a fed that is largely data dependent. keep in mind chair powell might be the chair, but there are many participants, and of course they all have a vote. david: kristina will stay with us. china p.m.a. i data showed it's dipping to a contraction while services ticked up. we welcome from hong dong bloomberg's chief asia correspondent. welcome, happy new year. >> indeed. good morning. we're back at the lowest we have been in 2 and a half years with p.m.i. a wake-up call as we head into

2019. declines on new orders, export orders. big decline in price components reflecting weaker commodity prices. the manufacturing things in china is weak as we head into the new year. it means policymakers will have to do more work. the service side of things, increasing more important part of the economy as well. there was some pick up on the construction side as well. bigger take away is that as we the nto 019 so much on trade war negotiations play out on china and that dictate the scale of the stimulus needed. alix: doip talk about that stimulus. we just had, before we came to air, the text of what president xi has been saying on his new year's address. he sounded positive saying they had all sorts of risks and challenges but pushed their economy towards a high quality -- sped up the old drivers of growth and kept the major economic indicators within a reasonable range all on top of a tax cut. what's in store for 2019 in

order to keep the chinese economy growing? >> you spoke of pushing through changes haven't been seen in 100 years. it was quite an upbeat message as one would expect. the policy steps so far as you you know have been somewhat nuanced, modest. there have been rebates for exporters. tax cuts, personal tax cuts. talk of making it easier for private companies to borrow, encourage banks to lend. but really and truly, much will depend where the trade talks go. if for argument sake it emerges, perhaps the trade talks are going on a path china is happy with, that will lift sentiments and lift the gloom. if it's the opposite, that it's more entrenched and sign of a break through deal emerging, then they are going to have to work much harder on the policy front. probably more on the fiscal side than the central banks. some economists say i talked to.

there is no doubt the coming weeks and months will be very important and will set the tone for china's economy, not just for 2019 but perhaps over the next coming years in terms of whether or not they can can stay on this path or have to revert to the old driver's heavily spur bide stimulus. david: thank you so much for staying up late. hope you are on the way to great celebrations tonight. alix: investor kristina hooper of invesco. the broad picture of the chinese data is global trade was already slowing. what's your global outlook for next year? kristina: our global outlook and u.s. outlook we're going to see a modest deceleration in growth but we'll still see growth and it will be moderate. that is -- that makes sense. we don't see a recession in sight in 2019. a relatively low probability of that. although we could see signs starting tend of 2019 that we will see a 2020 recession.

we want to follow that data closely. as of now it looks as though we will see modest growth. david: do you think the markets and investors understand that point of view and agree with it? or to you think they are thinking, wait a second, it may be more than just slowing down a bit. it's heading into something much more dangerous? kristina: i don't believe markets have been that far out yet. what we have seen over the last couple months are is the knee-jerk reaction to trade issues. that weren't priced in. so we essentially had a very significant rerating caused by concerns about the fed as well as primarily concerns about tariffs. as we head into 2019, we're likely to see markets adjust. and stocks reflect an assumption e see modest growth in 2019. alix: portfolio perspective, what does that look like? kristina: in a moderate growth environment what we should be focus canning on is investment

grade credit. but also just a variety of sources of income since we're still in a relative low environment. equities and focus on emerging market equities, japanese equities, diffeddend paying stocks globally. also real estate. alternative asset classes are important. real estate could be a strong performer note just in the next year but decade. that's an area to focus on as well. relative returns in the next asset criesesvior like real estate. a decent allocation to cash because opportunities will arrive. present themselves as we see more and more volatility. david: you can can make money off of cash. kristina: you can can make a little money off of cash. but the -- there is also that potential for opportunity if you do have cash on the sidelines in a volatile environment. alix: emerging markets, if you are looking at decelerating growth, how do you invest in

emerging markets? kristina: you need to be selective. the upside of decelerating growth, thrick in the u.s., the fed takes its foot off the accelerator. that should give the e.m. markets breathing room. going into e.m., and finding those opportunities which are largely going to be in asia, where growth is still strong. look at countries like india, where growth is very attractive. and also in china we have areas like tech that has been beaten down doctormatically. likely -- doctormatically -- dramatically. likely to benefit, david: talk about beaten down dramatically, look at the financials, they did not have a good december, 2018 at all. if the fed takes the food off the accelerator what does it do for financials? kristina: not great for financials. alix: can it it get worse? kristina: there are very sentimentally strong financial.

it can could meantime to sniff around for long-term opportunities. but banks in particular probably are going to stay under pressure given my scenario for the fed for 2019. alix: what does that mean for u.s. equities? the fed take their foot off the accelerator. selling u.s. equities? kristina: you don't need to sell u.s. equities, but you should probably have a market weight to a modest underweight in u.s. equities moving forward and be selective within u.s. equities in terms of emphasizing dividend paying stocks. david: what do you do as an investor, both positive and negative are higher, when basically we have a wider range of possibilities today than a year ago. kristina: you are going to overweigh alternate asset classes. that hasn't been a focus for many investors. now is the time to reassess portfolios and see where i can can add some exposure to things like a market neutral strategy. to things like real estate. to even goals. those are asset glasses that

make sense in this environment. alix: you will be sticking with us. much more coming up on that as well. all right. next up, buy big and buy big progress. u.s. equity futures rally after president trump expresses ptimism for the trade talks. and in the markets taking those moves today, nonetheless are you seeing a rally under way here in u.s. equity futures. the ft-se moments away from closing for the year. flat on the day. european stocks will close at 10:30, 1130 today. this is "bloomberg." alix: this is bloomberg

daybreak. happy new year. it dow jones futures are up 1%.

there was a horrible december and a rough year for equities. the worst in about a decade. there is optimism coming in. president trump tweeted over the weekend. we saw volatility last week. european stocks will close at 1130. it's higher, but the ftse is closing right about now. it's down almost 13% this year. i want to take it look at what happening in the euro-dollar. way, the effect it had on sterling. just: liam fox said we may have to have a revote. alix: there's that uncertainty. the vix is down. what is normalized volatility in 2019? crude is up 2%. 2015,he worst year since

oil is down 24%. you could do a show on the different asset classes. david: you actually could. we are not doing that show, unfortunately. it's time to find out what making news outside the business world. she is here with first word news. are reports the government has detained a u.s. citizen suspected of spying. they identified the suspect as paul welland. he was caught during an espionage operation. the u.s. embassy isn't commenting. and and to the shutdown could be determined by the word wall. what kind of physical barrier or security measures are acceptable to both sides? the president's demand for a wall refers to steel slats.

support enhanced security. kim jong-un wants more needed with the south korean leader. that's according to a spokesman for the south korea president. there is increased skepticism that can will dismantle his nuclear arsenal. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. david: thank you so much. asian markets moved up overnight because president trump reported big progress in trade talks with china. they reached a final stage. we welcome erin annis. there.oming to us from we want to stop -- start with you. what would big progress look like? that's a very good

question. the details are going to matter. we won't know more about the specifics until next week when the trade delegation and goes to china. i would anticipate it would have to include progress on intellectual property rights have seen somee issue on those policy issues in the last few weeks. david: is it going to look like what we got with nafta 2.0. people thought there was progress, but they would not call it big progress. do we need something that looks like progress, but is not going to fundamentally change our relations with china? tariffs on $267 billion worth of chinese imports because of concerns of intellectual property rights and steel and aluminum. having marginal progress is going to put the u.s. in a

difficult position of when and how to back off the tariffs. tariffs on 85% of u.s. exports. despite the fact that they seem to be on the same page over the weekend, the global times said something different. they said it's not clear if the u.s. is positioning china as a strategic competitor or a partner. it's time for the u.s. government to realize negotiations should be based on reality. they will not accept terms that is counter to the direction of their general reforms. are they really on the same page? erin: when it comes right down to it, the things the u.s. government is asking them to do is in line with things china will be doing for a while.

it has been slow to move into its economic reforms. claims fieldevel issues and protection of intellectual property rights are things president xi has been talking about for years. about we talked earlier this getting bigger on both sides. have a binary functioning? do we have a resolution? kristina: there could be that medium area where we continue the tariffs as they are try to seek ways to dial down the situation. i don't see china wanting to make material concessions now given the way it's been confronted as a way to being eased into reform. it has an incentive not to acquiesce to the u.s. in the situation. now, it's up to the u.s. to figure out a way to back out and lower tariffs and declare

victory at the same time. andink that is central might be the most likely one. u.s. used tariffs as a tool? how do you enforce any deal they come up with? erin: it's going to have to go to a reaganesque style of trust but verify. we will have to reduce the immediate tariffs to show both sides are on the same page. it's going to have to be the progress of ongoing. they are going to implement. american that companies and other foreign companies are able to benefit from those changes. 2019, is we look into likely there will be a resolution at all? if it's a deal, will the president retain his authority under the trade laws to impose

further tariffs whenever he wants, but hold up to make sure the deal is followed? erin: this is going to dependent have the u.s. economy and the chinese economy and the global economy is doing. the president very clearly feels tariffs are an important tool that is been underutilized in the past. until there is contradictory evidence that there is damage done to the economy or the global economy, i don't see him backing away from this approach. david: we are operating under a cease-fire. there is a march 1 deadline on that. what are the chances that will be extended? erin: it's hard to say we are at a cease-fire. we've got tariffs on $267 billion worth of imports. that's right. over half of chinese

imports covered by tariffs. we did not have escalation. what we do see right now is 60 days between now and the beginning of march is not that much time, it's an opportunity to try to further reduce the tensions and hopefully make some progress that can give us a plan to reduce the rest of the tariffs. alix: it was just a couple of talkingo, president xi about what to look for. despite the risks and challenges, they spent the replacement and kept the major economic indicators in a reasonable range. you saw this in the pmi. what kind of stimulus are you expecting to offset the trade issues? jonathan: i expect more stimulus physically. kristina: i would not be surprised to see the pboc provide some sort of monetary stimulus.

it's questionable what it will be. at itsas a huge arsenal disposal in a trade war with the united states. is president xi for life. president trump is about to embark on a very different part of his presidency. there are a lot of incentives for xi to not make concessions. it's a very significant issue facing u.s. businesses because of the trade war. if we were to look at the three hallmarks of a recession in the u.s., the tales are getting fatter. they are falling corporate profits, a falling stock market, also falling business investment. it often breeds a drop in business investment. david: let's take that admonition and apply specifically to your membership. you deal with u.s. companies

doing business in china. usual?usiness as are they contracting their investment in china? are they figuring out workarounds? are not seeing a contraction of the market. because of not just china tensions but global tensions as well, companies are looking for the approaches they take. china is a huge market. it continues to grow. in januaryplementing changes to its e-commerce rules januaryl changes to its e-commerce rules that will allow more overseas. the tax cuts talked about for individuals, they are looking for broader tax reform. china is looking at ways to ensure not just domestic companies, but foreign companies have the assurance. assurance. foreign companies will be looking at those market by market. david: thank you so much.

u.s. chinah the business council. common up, fortnight sees big gains for its ceo. markook losses mount for zuckerberg. what is and losers on the wall street beat is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg daybreak. coming up in the next hour, walter todd and the cio. this is your bloomberg business

flash. a deal between disney and verizon shows there is still support for sports networks like espn this despite growing rusher on cable. they averted a distribution agreement. disney won a price hike for its programming and verizon agreed to carry a new sports channel. natural gas is heading for its worst december. they will lose 33% this month. on seasonally warm weather and a smaller than average drop in stockpiles. aquaman was the box office champion north america. the movie based on the comics character took in $51.6 million. mary poppins return was in second place. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: three things wall street says this morning. billionaire winners and losers. we look at the biggest

moneymakers and losers of the year. fund, thehedge portfolio manager will start a hedge fund launching in asia. goldman cozies up to private equity. they are the top for m&a. is lisaoining us now abramowicz. we will start with the big winners and losers. number one is tim sweeney. lisa: you played fortnight quite a bit. david: i do not. lisa: i thought this was interesting. the creators of value did well this year. there's a question of what does it mean to be a value creator? if you think about facebook and their advertising, it hasn't been such a great year for mark zuckerberg, who is the biggest loser. fortnight has break in the

castle of all sorts of merchandise. loss? know how to do floss? we will do it during the break. notd: another loser i did know was zahra. zuckerberg.d lisa: fast fashion went out. it's sort of depends on your supply chain as well. it's interesting to me, singapore continues to be the bastion of billionaires. once again, it was the biggest gainer. i find this so interesting asians."f "crazy rich it turned into a real haven for

very wealthy people. alix: jack ma was also a loser. that was interesting. china tech stocks underperformed. that's really interesting. in asian opportunities, this is fascinating. a form folio manager is starting his own hedge fund. he's getting $800 million. it's for asian opportunities. they have not necessarily done that well this year. is the theme heading into 2019. you've got the biggest hedge fund managers heading to asia. i'm talking about oaktree, they've been very vocal about moving into china. there are another group of others. the credit cycle is turning. it's not necessarily stemming

from confidence in the economy. if you can rely on contracts and you can rely on people paying you back, this distress becomes opportunity to get do have markets that are uneven and distorted and there might be aberrations. david: does that point you toward singapore or hong kong as opposed to other places? lisa: that's what you see, a lot managersand the fund are heading to hong kong and singapore. people are saying if beijing is serious about opening up its markets and the reserve currency, this is incredible skepticism emanating from david westin. david: we thought that was going out with the wto. it hasn't gone as fast as we thought it would. if you have one winner or two winners, they could outpace

the losers dramatically. there is not the capital willing to take that risk. david: can we talk mergers and acquisitions? lisa: yes please. david: goldman is on top again. lisa: i thought this was interesting. they were not getting the biggest deals. they were getting many more of them. even though the deal size is smaller than 2015, i find this interesting in a year where we saw the dramatic slowdown at the end for big deals to get done it, it feels like a much bigger slog. corporate's,aller they get on. alix: barclays was on the list. they were up 17%. it shows the difference. david: an activist investor wants to get rid of it.

lisa: if you think about some of the losers in europe, which fake. -- deutsche bank. david: many thanks to lisa abramowicz. coming up, to meet or not to meet? a meeting between president trump and jay powell. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

david: the white house is trying to arrange a face-to-face meeting between the two. it would not be the first in which a president went toe to toe with the fed chairman. it happened in 1984. the book is titled keeping at it. it's a great story.

>> it's amazing. paul volcker had been fed chairman since 1979 when jimmy carter appointed him. there was inflation, it was the number one problem keeping anyone from getting anything done. he came in with the mandate to curb inflation. reagan got elected in 1980. he was supportive of all volcker. he was popular. people wanted something done. by 1984 when reagan was up for reelection, collation -- inflation was more under control. he was surprised to be invited to the white house. it wasn't in the oval office. it was in the library. he arrived and the only people there were president reagan and james baker, his chief of staff.

here members reagan seeming uncomfortable and the only words that were said were by baker. the president is ordering you not to raise interest rates. david: before the election. was july, 1984. ronald reagan didn't say anything. he did not know what to say. there was a big bank at risk of collapse. he was far from thinking about raising interest rates at that point. david: he wasn't going to raise interest rates. that's the big irony. >> east that there -- he stood there. he considered whether he should tell william proxmire. he was basically the person who oversaw him. he decided it would not do any good because he wasn't going to

raise interest rates. quiet untiled recently. david: i thought it was not precisely the right time for a short lecture on the constitutional authority the congress to oversee the federal reserve. he was just going to take the better course and walk out. alix: is there a difference between now? president trump is actively criticizing jay powell. publicdifference is how he is being. volcker tells a story about meeting with johnson earlier in his career. he went to a meeting with president johnson and the fed chairman, johnson really tried to prevent martin from raising rates. gallbladder he had

surgery coming up. it wasn't this public. under martin, they had taken the fed out of control of the treasury. this is different. david: it's a great story and a great book. congratulations. that was christine harper. in "keeping atre it." what is he doing in the 2019? the crowd to gathering in sydney. we are moments away from ringing in 2019. this is bloomberg. ♪

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after severe blast, investors say goodbye to 2018. volatility spikes, oil sinks. the greatest showman, president trump reports big progress. they talked over the phone set of it and it is moving along well. forecasts,ts lowering rate hike expectations. david: it's the last day of 2018. we are going right to sydney. happy new year from sydney. this is the harbor bridge. you can see the opera house off to the right. alix: it's beautiful. david: sydney really knows how to do new year's. we have covered it quite a bit. alix: i have been a place you haven't been. i thought the opera house was magical.

seen it in person is a different thing. they had huge thunderstorms down there earlier. the umbrellas seem to be down. there was some question about canceling it. alix: happy new year. if i could do an australian accent, i would do it. we are counting down in the united states as well. it was a brutal year. since 2008, most the worst year in a decade. there is a little bit of a relief rally. it's a shortened trading day. many markets are closed except here in the u.s. s&p futures are up 1%. euro-dollar is modestly higher. it's a mixed dollar story as we

head into new year's. it's weaker except for new zealand. crude is up by over 2%. we haven't seen crude at this level for the years since 2015. david: the time now is for the morning brief. presidentbrazil's new will take office. thursday is the first day of the new congress. u.s. automakers will be reporting december sales. friday is job state. j howell will be appearing with two predecessors for a joint interview at the meeting of the american economic forum in atlanta. let's get an update on what making headlines. she is here with first word news. >> there is an optimistic start to a make or break year.

president trump reported what he called big progress in trade talks with china. they spoke by phone senate. the trade delegation has to beijing next week. there are reports the russian government has detained a u.s. citizen accused of spying. he was caught during an espionage operation in moscow. the u.s. embassy is not commenting. kim jong-un once more meeting with the south korean leader to resolve issues. there is increasing specter schism that kim will dismantle his nuclear arsenal. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. around the world's

are climbing at the end of his visible year. equity futures held onto gains and there is optimism around trade talks are in what about 2019? we asked what the risks were. immune toot geopolitical situations. for us to stay focused on the work we're doing is important. >> trade is the thing we worry about. the stimulus in the u.s. economy is more powerful than the negative impact of trade. >> we need to be prepared for a world that will be less global trade. >> the biggest risk is only rises we face. >> the biggest headwind is our ability to expand in other places. >> today, everything is a risk. we turned the lights on and we have a risk. where you have to watch is

when that manifests in people worried about the risk of a slowdown. it's always going to be in the u.s.. >> balance sheet normalization and traded, those the two risks we identified at the start of the year. alix: joining me is kurt hartman. on the phone is walter todd. your favorite trade for 2019 western mark kirk. kirk: i'm interested in the dividend yield earners. i like telenor. i like verizon and at&t in the u.s. i like the health care sector. health care is the new tech. if you take that sector without johnson & johnson, i think

that's a good place to be going into 2019. risk right biggest now is the credit market and what high-yield is doing and the dysfunction you see there right now. that's the biggest risk. the favorite trade, health care. it's a good place to be here in it's not economically sensitive. if you are inclined to believe we get a deal with china on trade, technology and its semi conductors will do very well in that backdrop. are you projecting as a wide range of what could happen with the stock market? in that situation, how do you protect yourself from the downside? it seems like tech would help. walter: you have to play both sides of the coin. having some extra cash on the sidelines and taking advantage of volatility is one way to do

that. you have to have some defense in the portfolio. verizon and at&t were mentioned. that could be tech as well. you have to recognize we are in a different market than we then and for the past two years. we have broken the uptrend. we are in a market with things to be decided. alix: if you like the higher dividend plane stocks, you don't expect higher rates. we are looking at no hikes next year. your test case? we were talking about the fed tightening three or four times. there is a discussion now about one and done. we are pretty fairly priced. i expect the treasury will start to back up in terms of yield.

at the end of the year, you will have a steeper yield curve. looking for rates to go up precipitously. what about the balance sheet? what is the effect on asset prices? this is what automatic pilot looks like. to what extent is what we see in the equity market a selloff because asset values were overpriced because of too much market -- money in the marketplace? walter: the balance sheet being wound down became a headwind. it started off manageable. as liquidity started to drain out of the market, it impacted asset prices.

2019, the out into fed has to communicate they are not on autopilot. recognize a willingness to be flexible based on the data, which is weakening at this point. liquidity is a big factor. it's something to see how that is unfolding. if we get high-yield spreads to , that wouldttle bit be an indication that liquidity is coming back into the market. it's a clear sign for equities as well. they still see core inflation picking up, they are more pessimistic on it growth. that means a defensive trade? health care? everyone says health care is where they want to be. how you handle that?

it depends in your risk tolerance. toould probably go back microsoft in the cloud, google and the ad space. amazon in retail. there are some great growth stories out there. it depends on your perspective. have great buys and the emerging markets as well. we think about possible political risks in europe and the united states. investor, how you take that into account? walter: it's something you have to consider when you put those companies in your portfolio, what is the regulatory risk around the world? seen, you areve

being compensated in some respects for some of his regulatory risk. back to the earlier point about offense of, you have to have both. you have to have some defense in the portfolio. if you get some of these things that happen in the fed industrials would see some significant re-rating from the downgrades we've seen over the past couple of months. you have to have both of those in the portfolio. it's too late to be entirely defensive. you've got to play the middle there. ok.d: they will both be staying with us. coming up, big progress after president trump expresses optimism. the china slowdown continues. a look at celebrations going on.

we are almost 12 minutes into the new year there. the fireworks are still going on over sydney harbour. isn't that beautiful? live from new york, we will cover the new year. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is your bloomberg business flash. another setback for the former nissan chairman. they have extended his stay in jail for 10 more days. he's been locked up since november over allegations he understated his income by millions of dollars.

he is seeking bail so he can work on his defense. the worst quarter for oil comes to an end. it plunged 38%, it's the first annual loss for futures in three years. regulators and china have approved a new videogame titles. the gaming industry was hammered this year by the decision to stop the approval process. producers sawgest hits market value fall by $200 billion. it was part of the campaign to fight gaming addiction. that is your bloomberg business flash. david: the president reported big progress in grade -- trade talks with china. president xi seemed to agree. take us through what this could mean for investors in 2019.

this is walter todd. hartmannew york is kirk wells fargo. but the start with you. how important is it what happens in the trade talks? kirk: extremely important. i'm optimistic. i think a trade deal might get done. that might be the surprise of the year. they have an awful lot at stake. i think at the end of the day, you might see some middle ground. david: does it matter what it says? is it important that there is just something there? kirk: there needs to be some kind of peace in terms of protecting technology. that's the real issue. the protection of patents and u.s. industries is something the administration is going to demand. alix: when you have a fat tail and when it comes to fed policy,

how do you deal with that kind of volatility? walter: as we were discussing earlier, having more cash than you would normally have a portfolio to take it vantage of is volatility we will be in one way you can do that. i think if kirk is right, if we have a trade deal that is meaningful, there is some significant areas. we talked about semiconductors. you would think they would see a bounce from that situation. it means being of the more active in the portfolio and having some cash in reserve to take advantage of. how much of it is underlined the strength of the chinese economy?

below 15 now. the services pmi went up. how important is it for u.s. investors how the chinese economy is doing overall? walter: it's the second largest economy in the world. we have companies with significant businesses there. some fruit.ee the reflection of the pmi this morning, the stock market is down 25% for the year. our stockmarket his caught up with there's recently. , i think it will come down a fair amount. donencentive to get a deal it started out being more acute

to china with their stock market. it's coming to our shores with our stockmarket and economy slowing as well. there is definitely an incentive there. we want to pay attention to what the chinese economy is doing. alix: we are not going to do stimulus here anymore. does that make the case for emerging markets and china? china hasour point, reserves to stimulate the economy. it's not as much as they did one year ago. conditions are not as good as people think. our team the travels there frequently just came back in november and told me conditions and people are worried. that puts a lot of pressure on the trade talks. in the end, that's a good thing. i think we are optimistic. i disagree. i think the chinese are in a

weaker spot. kirk: it will be interesting to see how that plays out. theory,in terms of game it pushes everyone to a deal. alix: it's good to catch up with you. up, the year general electric would love to forget. how the new ceo is trying to steer the company in 2019. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: it's time for the bottom line where we look at three companies. verizon and disney came to terms. you can be relieved. you can watch the rose bowl on your bias. it's at an impasse. if you go back 10 years, they were so dependent on one another. it makes the tricky

negotiations. alix: they had pricing power. david: that gives you a lot of power. alix: two years ago, it was a different conversation. i'm looking at amazon. to expand the food market portfolio and put more customers in the two-hour delivery range. they want prime customers. they want to use the services and their stores as items. david: that's one of the big differences for many of us. we will get really fast delivery of things from places like amazon and whole foods. ge.third company is you know we are going to talk with brooke sullivan. you have a new piece called new

year, new ge. are looking for can he turn this around. this will be the big test case. hiss expected to lay out plan for pain down ge's debt. it's finding a way to grow this company again here in -- again. david: did they get all of the bad stuff out of the cupboard? brooke: it was getting hit with one piece of bad news every month. we don't really know yet. that's one of the reasons why you see the stock the range bound. we don't have a handicap on some of these. they originally benchmarked that it $3 billion. it was actually a $15 billion shortfall.

medical costs are going up, people are living longer. they're going to have to put some range on that. alix: what the timeline? brooke: is reveal of the strategy in january. i don't think he has a lot of time to turn this around. you saw this with john flannery. the board and investors don't have a lot of patience. is important thing with ge this is going to take time. it's not a problem to solve overnight. you find a way to pay these obligations, including the liability. you have to find a way to give this company a future. david: he doesn't have much time or money. he's got a lot of debt in the balance sheet. how do they come up the money?

brooke: no time, no money. he was known for being a builder. he would buy businesses and he would improve them. this was not necessarily businesses in dire straits. these were so-so businesses that he would make better. it's a pretty dramatic move. it would give him a lot of room on the balance sheet. alix: welcome back. it's great to see you. how some ceos will feel moving into 2019. the ceo.it down with of this is bloomberg. ♪ amazon prime video is now on xfinity x1.

so when you say words like... show me best of prime video into this... you'll see awesome stuff like this. discover prime originals like the emmy-winning the marvelous mrs. maisel... tom clancy's jack ryan... and the man in the high castle. all in the same place as your live tv.

its all included with your amazon prime membership. that's how xfinity makes tv... simple. easy. awesome. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." happy newe in sydney, year. we are counting down the hours.

it is the shortest trading day in the bond market. they close at 2:00 p.m. equities will be open the whole day. futures off the highs of the session, but it will be a bit of sincefter the worst year 2008. the vix staying steady at 27. in other asset classes, look at what is happening in euro-dollar. i want to tap into the cable rate, because i love this story. writing weekend, have a 50/50 chance we see no brexit deal. then we have jean-claude juncker get itin and saying, together. figure out what you want and come back to us. david: this was juncker saying "get it together," this last month? alix: fair point, but when was the last time you heard this type of negotiation saying, figure it out? david: theresa may is saying,

change it a little bit around the edges, and he is saying, we don't excel. alix: bond yields back up two basis points. david? david: time to find out what is going on outside the business world. is here with first word news. viviana: and into the government shutdown could be determined by the definition of the word "wall." it is a question of what border security is acceptable to both sides. the wall house says refers to steel slats as well as tech measures. democrats say they support border security, but not a "medieval wall." president trump says there has been "big progress" in trade talks with china. the president talking with xi jinping over the weekend. both sides expressing satisfaction with negotiations. new figures from china's manufacturing slowdown have gotten worse.

a forecast on global growth for the first half of 2019. the chief economist lowing his outlook for the american economy from 2.4% in the first six months to 2%. goldman also reducing his expectations of federal reserve interest-rate hikes. goldman news and a tictoc on to their powered -- on twitter. this is bloomberg. alix: we have news right now. we have a new hat in the ring for the 2020 residential election. the junior senator from massachusetts -- not a shock, that she officially announced she has launched an exploratory committee, the first step people take. if there were any doubts, she said, i am announcing that the government is bought and paid thaty giant corporations think they get to dictate the rules. as we know, she is an economic populist, having taught and chrissy law at harvard law school. not a big shock, but she is officially in the race.

alix: i love this. "washington works great for the wealthy and well-connected. it is not working great for anyone else right now." democrats, i feel it is a scramble to find someone. david: i think we will have a couple of dozen, probably. senator warren -- this has been a theme of her throughout her career, actually. when she was a bankruptcy professor, she wrote a lot about the middle class and how the middle class was getting left behind. she has been on this theme for some time now. it is genuine. it is authentic area alix: -- authentic. alix: and it says where our country is. david: you wonder about populism from the left and the right at this point. alix: growth in the u.s. -- goldman sachs lowering its growth forecast. andees unemployment falling wages rising. ceo's have to do with a tighter job market, trade tensions, and uncertainty. confidence on a sea suite level

has fallen from a 12 month high at the beginning of the year. joining us in chicago is someone trenches, levine gandhi, the founder of 1 -- ravin gandhi, who founded a company that makes some of the main nonstick coatings. also on set, chris hartman of wells fargo asset management, still with us. outlook foris your 2019, the biggest risk you have? ravin: clearly, it is the trade thing. the debt around the world. i am cautiously optimistic from the president's treating that a deal is to be made. i think it will be madness of both sides escalate things, it the world cannot take this type of uncertainty. you see it in the market, in my business. american to corporations, and in most cases, companies that source from china have cut their spend 30%, 40%.

i am an optimist. i want to say 2019 is going to be good, but the president has to slow down. alix: if you woke up tomorrow and heard there was a deal with china trade, what is the difference it would make in your business? what decision would you make tomorrow in terms of investment, in terms of hiring? we probably hired almost nobody through the second half of 2018 because we saw so much spending and cuts. we have operations all over asia. we some movements into lower-cost countries like indonesia, malaysia. we have an operation in india. we saw -- if a deal was made tomorrow, i expect buying would increase dramatically. we would probably start hiring and investing there again. bigger issue supply, or end-user demand? david: in which sense? supply to the consumer market? alix: in your business, where

your business, where you are going to source, for example. americanr us, it is if is this is cut their orders into china, which is what we have seen, we have to do a lot of manufacturing elsewhere. that is the main issue. what about the other parts of the equation? we do not have tax stimulus to look forward to. we have a trade issue. what about wages? what about jobs? in my industry in the states, we hire a lot of highly educated r&d people, which is always going up. we see not great inflation, but some pressure, even on the material side. in the last 30 days, we have seen a lot of our big vendors saying prices are going up 5% to 10%. inflationary pressure keeps the heat on. there is a saying, when we would talk about the trade thing -- holding a grudge is like taking poison and waiting for the other person to die. tooink if the president is much on china -- i understand he wants to make a deal, what you

cannot take the poison with these tariffs. were: you said you cautious but hopeful that we were going to get a deal. take the deal and apply it in terms of price-earnings ratios. we did get a deal. what difference would that make in equities? probably at a 15 p. i could see us going to a 16 or 17 p, which would be terrific. we would have to see the details of the deal. i think it to alix, is more the demand side. if there were a deal, it would signal that worldwide demand would be increasing. we talked christine hooper, investment strategist. this is what she had to say about the economy and businesses. if we were looking for the three hallmarks in the u.s., although we do not expect 1 -- the hallmarks are falling profits, carpets --

falling stock market, and falling business investments. we know that uncertainty often breeds a drop in business investment. the economist word is really, we are worried. we have not seen the reality yet. like you are.e it sounds to me like on the ground, you are in trouble, or you are worried of trouble. ravin: i am certainly worried that things are not going to be as smooth as people may think. and you are right. we are very much on the trenches. but i am optimistic. we are a $20 trillion economy. china is 14 or 15. america continues to reinvent itself. we are looking at acquisitions in my industry right now. i am not hiding in the basement here. . have to believe in america it has been a rocky quarter.

there is no doubt about it. you see the market. you say you are looking at acquisitions. put that against the trade discussion. is that in anticipation it will not get resolved, or are those acquisitions that might help you if it does get resolved? ravin: many deals we are looking at do not have much china exposure. to that extent, if has been a diversification situation. i have to take not only the quarterly view, but the 10 year view. it is hard to get out of the bed in the morning if you think five or 10 years from now we will be in a crippling trade war with a real cold war between the u.s. and china. it is inconceivable that the largest economies cannot get along. i am optimistic in that sense. david: tell capital investment. you look at this uncertainty, it is hard to make large capital investments. we had capital investment tick up with the tax cuts. now, it has ticked up a bit. what do you see? kirk: no question that capital

investment trailed off. i think that is a concern. i think the key to me is productivity. that depends on capital investment. i think one of the things that gives me pause is that we have not seen growth in productivity to any large extent. to me, until you are really that accelerate, you have to see more productivity. thed: ravin, you are on front lines. what causes you to drive productivity? it is in my business, innovation. it is constantly knowing that irrespective of the global market, we have to keep our prices stable or falling. we have a lot of competition. ish all the sales, it investing in business, hiring the best people. i have to think about productivity every day. 40 million people in america every day use my products. we are cost of we looking at the middle class and saying, are these people going to be ok? there is no tax cut.

the fed does not seem to be moving in a downward direction. there is a lot of headwinds. levine gandhi, nonstick ,oating ceo, and kirk hartman wells fargo asset management. great to have you with us. coming up, beyond plastic. a push toward a cashless society. this is bloomberg. ♪

na: viola: this is -- vivia this is "bloomberg daybreak." assume coming up, a former aide to u.s. president george w. bush.

this is your bloomberg business flash. a deal between disney and verizon shows there is still support for sports networks such as espn, despite growing pressure on cable. the companies reached a distribution agreement. reports that disney reports that disneyfor wanted a price hike for its programming. the price of u.s. natural gas is headed for its worst december since 1991. futures are off 33% this month. the big reason is unseasonably warm weather and a smaller than average drop in the national -- natural gas stockpile. "aquaman" was the box office champion for the second week in a row, taking in 51.6 million dollars. inry poppins returns" was second place with $28 million. david: it is time for our feature on the future of money.

we look at different aspects of how the digital world will affect money. today, our focus on global payments as some retailers move away from cash. joining us on skype from tel v, nomuraan dole research executive director. thank you for joining us. let's talk about square. it looks like you are the second highest target price at $107 on the stock. tell us what you like square so much. dan: if you look at the future of payments and mobile payments in general, one thing [indiscernible] this whole integrated payments thing in the u.s. the next 20 will be the company which can innovate and offer more software services, in addition to the payments, right? europe -- in to

the u.s., the most important thing right now is additional, adjacent services. square is by far the front runner of this theme. i am not just talking about the cash. it has become very popular. i am talking about the offerings they are giving to businesses, products which include payroll and hr. that is what i like so much about twitter. there is no -- about square. there is no other company that offers so much over the next two years. it is really unprecedented growth we have seen. a lot of that growth is coming from software and services, and the rate of innovation is much faster than the competitors. that is why we like square so much. david: tell us about these ancillary services. i basically new square as the little white box at a local merchant. use it to register your credit card. but then we have this cash card application which we understand is sort of like venmo. caviar, i thought were fish eggs

te to celebrate the end of the year. dan: i love caviar. what you are saying now is interesting. that is what square is. it is not just one thing. it is a holistic view of the payments ecosystem. if you think about it, they have crated what no one else in the space does. applealmost like the ecosystem, but for payments. you can be the merchant and you can accept payments. you can be the merchant and have access to hr and payroll which is fully integrated and cohesive. even from the consumer side, you can pay with a square cash card. you can come from the consumer side and order food by caviar. that helps square know who you are. it is not just a food ordering system. it is a food ordering system that is attached to the whole

ecosystem of square. it is the difference between separate, disjointed services, which is kind of the situation where we are right now, with one app, etc. cover and having a .ne-stop shop it is differentiated from the rest of the merchant acquirers. alix: what is the barrier to entry for this type of business? dan: great question. the barrier to entry, in my view, is the innovation. oldn old payments, the model where people are running --und and paying merchants that game is basically over. now, because there is so much information, merchants are demanding more from the payment providers. there is really only one

cohesive offering, and that is square. everybody else is offering things from the outside. doovation and the ability to better than your peers. other than that, it is a business where you can go and acquire merchants. that is the old way, not five years from now. david: compare and contrast square with paypal. we all use of online quite a bit. it is ubiquitous. it is all around the world. what is the comparison? -- this iso give you square, not so much paypal per se, but venmo. they are competing with venmo. the comparison between the two is, they are offering the same thing. one of the differences is the target. people who are downloading --

there is more downloads today for square cash, versus venlo. -- venmo. the service is still the same. but the people downloading square cash, they are a unique part of the population. a lot of them are underbanked. venmo still is sort of the b banking, forto millennials and people in big cities. the services are the same. i would have to say that the service square offers is more comprehensive. it is not just having p to p, but you can go to whole foods, do different things. you cannot do it with venlo -- venmo. it is not just p to p payments.

the population that are downloading and using the app, that is what we see in our research. alix: thank you for joining us from tel aviv. coming up, it is the commodities conundrum. commodities having the worst month since 2015. more on what i am watching, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: what i am watching -- shocker -- commodities into the new year. having its worst month since 2015. joining us, bloomberg intelligence commodities strategist. what was the worst commodity? michael: this month, the most notable would be crude oil. it plunged. it came from such a high level. the key thing to look forward to is, crude oil hits $42 a barrel juneat was the low from

2017, when everybody declared a bear market. to go below that is very unlikely. and: even if i look at gclo look at all of them, it is still crude. bear market, but it is still crude that has the worst. int is the biggest factor the 19? michael: cuts from opec. we should expect that. that is the big picture of why crude oil is not going to sustain much. it is oversupplied. opec should cut. we should expect that. the next key thing will be the dollar. david: there are reports that shale is pulling back in investment and drilling. is that going to turn around on a dime? dime,l: it is less than a that it is responding to overpricing. even the key thing -- lower prices. ?hy is it

more supply. that is the key thing to remember. getting into the 40's is too cheap. even canada is cutting back production. been in thise market a long time. you talk to traders all day. this month and commodities, what were they saying? michael: watch the stock market. when the s&p broke down that hard, it rot down everything. that has been a key. 2400, that was a big moving average. now that the stock market is stabilized, crude oil should. but it needs to plunge. alix: can it really not be volatile? you are going to have shale responsive. you will have more shale, more prices,e cuts, higher more production. that is a more volatile situation. michael: but volatility is in a range. it probably won't get much below

40 are above 60. people get very bullish toward the highs. alix: about commodities and the global economy, or this will be a really supply-driven story? echo: for crude oil, purely supply. technology is repressing incremental demand. look at china, our country, ev's. petroleumuse as much anymore. we use natural gas. alix: thank you. great to see you. that does it for "bloomberg daybreak: americas." coming up, markets open. this is bloomberg. ♪ amazon prime video is now on xfinity x1.

so when you say words like... show me best of prime video into this... you'll see awesome stuff like this. discover prime originals like the emmy-winning the marvelous mrs. maisel... tom clancy's jack ryan... and the man in the high castle. all in the same place as your live tv.

its all included with your amazon prime membership. that's how xfinity makes tv... simple. easy. awesome. steel, in forx jon ferro. the countdown to today's open starts right now.

coming up, global equities ending a dismal year on a high note. president trump reporting big progress in the trade talks with china. and growing pains. goldman sachs cutting its 2019 global growth forecast and lowering rate expectations. -- tightening conditions. here comes january. investors looking at 2018, stocks heading to their biggest annual decline in a decade. futures not up by about 0.7%, off the highs of the session, but it is the worst year for stocks since 2008 as we see big declines in volatility spread. it is a weaker dollar story. yields of by about two basis points. crude rising with stocks up over 1%,