manus: this is bloomberg daybreak middle east. i top stories this morning. urges country to whether the slowdown in his new year's day speech. manus: we hear from fed chairs past and present this week. ben bernanke and janet yellen interview jay powell on friday. market seem to be rooting on a hike in 2019. are they correct? >> president trump calls a meeting of top congressional leaders after suggesting he is open to a deal to end the shutdown. president brazil's

sworn in, can he deliver on his pledge to end the country's economic malaise? manus: it is 8:00 a.m. across the emirates. this is bloomberg daybreak middle east. tracy: i'm tracy alloway in hong kong. asian investors are hoping for better portions in 2019, less to say they might have to wait until the chinese new year starts in february. the hang seng index down more than 2% in hong kong, off the back of some very down factory numbers that with had out from across asia. fall sochina showing a confirming the contraction we saw in the official figure over the weekend, taiwan's pmi falling to 47.7 in december.

we had malaysia's figure falling to 46.8, the worst figure since the series began. trade tensions clearly starting to factor into the real economy in asia and the question for investors is how far those effects are going to go. manus: and that double data, the distance between the rhetoric from the white house terms of doing a big deal and the reality of the data that you just mentioned. .6 percent.ets down the market is going to want to see the gap between rhetoric and reality close. as wellodity index is in focus. we dropped 12% last your. this is about global trade concerns, the data says we are on the destructive path, down 4% last year in 2018. 2019 offer a more optimistic

year? by the way, happy new year, tracy. tracy: happy new year, manus. thinking of markets, let's check in on what is actually happening. what is going on this morning? yvonne: you mention the hong kong story, it was the china pmi that let everyone down. we were expecting some stabilization and just confirming the numbers we got on friday, in contraction for the first time since 2017. take a look at hong kong, you mention the 2% drop, the biggest tumble we have seen in hong kong stock for the month. 145%,e taiex as well down led by semiconductor stock today in china falling out of favor. let show you some currencies, we

are seeing a little bit of dollar strength coming through with the exception for the japanese yen. the renminbi seeing some signs of strength but were watching the taiwanese dollar, it seems some steep declines. we did get that speech from president xi on taiwan. he mentioned that china must be the unified with the mainland. so little bit of pressure in taipei in particular today. you thisod to see morning. the story of -- the story on indie as we kick off 2019, how does it look? great,ot that unfortunately. what is keeping the indices lower is to sectors essentially. the metals sector where we've had a bunch of downgrades coming broken houses, and we've

had weak sales numbers coming in for the month of december. that said, thanking index is not as down as the benchmark, but still trending lower by about .4%, which brings me to the yuan -- u.s. dollar. we see some strength there but not too much. staying around the mark of 17. tracy: thank you so much for that. let's check in on the first word headlines from around the world. here is debra mao. the new brazil president has been sworn in. he promises to tackle crime, corruption, and economic malaise. that opinion polls suggest two months after his victory, 75% of brazilians think the new leader is on the right track. however, the reality has given up most of its postelection gains. we have in front of us to unique opportunity to rebuild our country and rescue the hope

of our compatriots. i'm sure we will face huge challenges, but if we have the wisdom to hear the voice of the people, we will achieve our goals. >> kim jong-un used his new year's eve -- new research address to issue a message to trump. he affirmed his willingness for further talks with trump. the u.s. president tweeted that he looks forward to meeting kim again, saying he realizes north korea's economic potential. president trump has invited top congressional leaders from both parties to a white house briefing on border security after suggesting he wants to make a deal to end the government shutdown. the invitation includes eight top leaders in the new house and senate convenes on thursday. he hinted he was offering and all branch to nancy pelosi. u.k. chronister theresa may used a new year's video message to

urgent into brexit. she said britain could turn a corner if parliament backs the deal she has brokered with the e.u. when it both later this month. she will continue discussions this week. italy's president has chastised the populist coalition government programming it spending plan through parliament. used his year and addressed to warn the country's growth debt pile penalizes ordinary citizens. the deputy premier used his own new year's speech to say there's many more to be done on the populist agenda including cutting the pay of politicians. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. debra mao. this is bloomberg. get back to one of our top market stories this hour.

the latest gauge on china's manufacturing activity showed a contraction for the first time since may 2017. manufacturing pmi for december was 49.7. let's get more on what that might mean tom mackenzie, joining us from making. neither of those paying an optimistic picture of what is going on for china's economy at the moment. let's this is a survey that focuses on the small and medium-size largely private companies. in line with what we saw from the official data we got a first showing contraction up since march of 2016. other drivers of the economy are ,lso slow, the real estate auto, and consumer spending sectors. you could focus on the services ,omponent for the silver lining it showed a pickup above

expectations. there's something just in that some of the stimulus put in place were the in of last year is some reason for that. the chinese investment bank is saying it needs to be a forceful policy amendment or adjustment to address this downturn. what would those additional forces be within the china spectrum in the policy toolkit? presidentxi talked about tax cuts and we've heard from the finance minister as well about significant tax cuts they could go somewhere toward the private sector which is focusing concerns rembrandt sector and their lack of access to credit and the expectation that tax cuts would help them. the income tax last year, we saw increased issuance of bonds at

the local government level. the questions whether or not this will be affected. there's growing expectation that you now have less of a focus on that campaign and more of a focus on assuring there is any is needed to support the economy. front,eard on the policy the pboc changing its language. most don't expect the benchmark rate cut but that potentially comes into play toward the end of this year. tom mackenzie walking us to the latest pmi figures for china. as get more on that with the head of equity research for asia who joins us from our singapore studio. good to see you this morning, happy new year to you. we were just talking about the china pmi figures. we had singapore gdp this morning showing a further slowdown in the fourth quarter.

is the growth story firmly over at this point? >> we certainly think we are becoming a little more de-synchronize. movies focus on those china numbers, don't forget if we were not talking about the trade rhetoric and the current standstill and 90 -- 90 day negotiations, we would be talking much more about the contractionary impact of the deleveraging policy in china, which we think is the main driver of those week ip numbers currently. it is starting to come apart a bit. will dig a little deeper into the deleveraging story, which was manufactured by the chinese authorities themselves. this is the financial conditions or monetary conditions within

china. you can see where they have pushed to expand that in the latter part of 2018. tom was referring to additional forces, do you see any easier policy coming into 2019, and if so, in what form? pushed to easen back a little bit on the deleveraging campaign because of the potential impact of trade rhetoric and where that could lead to. it is all tied in together with the action of data coming out probably more tied to the deleveraging impact rather than sentiment around trade currently. the correspondent mentioned a few tools that the government has that they could use and we agree there's lots of tools. more targeted easing of monetary policy, and we also think tax cuts and targeted tax cuts is

another way to try to add a bit of juice to the economy. sentiment, there is a lot of negotiation going on in the background on the trade site. whether you believe the blustery comments about a big deal about to happen, we certainly think there is a deal in the works. we might not meet the 90 day we don't, we if will probably see that extended to enable a continued standstill in terms of actual tariffs. we think that is currently the base case of where we are headed in terms of trade policy between the u.s. and china. tracy: that is your base case, and improved trade tensions outlook for the u.s. and china. let me ask you the flip side of that, how far can stocks rally if trade talks make real progress? what is your view?

kieran: our view is that even though we had such a week year last year for china, we are only trading at around medium valuation. we are not trading at cheap valuation compared to the last five years. we have obviously had a correction from the extended valuation we saw january last year. that's the background, we are not looking like it is super cheap. the underlying economy is growing. we think certainly there is room if we get a positive sentiment run in the market, but it would sound like it is supported by supercheap valuation. the short-term bump, sure, if we come to some agreement. longer-term, there are still issues and we are not at a super discounted valuation either, as a starting point. manus: more to examine in the markets.

brazil's president sworn in. can he deliver on his pledge to end the economic malaise in his country? tracy: of next, we hear from fed chairs past and present. ben bernanke and janet yellen interviewed jay powell on friday. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: the first trading day of the year. the s&p had its worst december since 1931. we did shave our losses in 2018 down 6.2%. however, it looks like a fairly tough start to the trading year, down nearly 1%.

dubai opens later in the day. fed chairsr from past and present on friday. ben bernanke he, janet yellen interview jay powell at the annual meeting of the american economic association. the same day we get the latest nonfarm payrolls report out of the u.s.. the economy is expected to added 180,000 jobs in december with the unemployment rate holding at a 48 year low. where does the fed in 2019? that is the debate. is it really that simple? our guest is still with us. he will have a little more insight in this. spreads,bout the debt there's no rate hikes priced in. we've had a little bit of a a little higher into the

close of 2018. is the flattening pancake trade over? do we see a reassertion on a pause fed? it all depends on the economy. that's the first point. of course the meeting at the end took out 25 we basis points in terms of expectation of where it gets to. i think it's a little surprising that this has resulted in futures sayingis at all this year, especially when the economic figures are not that bad. let's see what the payrolls look like on friday. for us, heading into year end, we had expect tatian of 2-3 hikes, again depending on the economy, for 2019. that was kind of consensus a month ago.

futurese we talk about saying no rate rise, but i don't think you see too many economists talking about no rate rise. let's see where we get to from there. tracy: i like to go back to what manus was just talking about, u.s. equity futures down, pretty amazing. what is driving that volatility this morning? on the one hand you look at the ongoing trade talks, you look at trump talking about a potential deal in the works to end the government shutdown in the u.s.. it seems like things should be contractet we have the down more than 1%. what is going on? first trading dead the year, there is bound to be a bit of volatility ahead of the open. hong kong down 3% is not positive for u.s. futures. just because the calendars

turned doesn't mean all the issues that we were devout that drove that horrible december have disappeared. the market is still worried about those issues. explainshat partly that the future is down over 1% currently. other issues to come, if are trying to cast forward, i saw 11 we note that reminded me there is a debt ceiling in the united states. shortuggest you want to the dollar on the back of this debt ceiling coming up. the dollar was the second-best performing g7 currency last year. do i want to look at perhaps setting up a short dollar trade 2019? short dollar is not our base case. ,ou mentioned the debt ceiling

it is not a new issue. it comes up almost every year and we think it is something past,ill get negotiated all the things become a little more complicated this year. the midterm results last year, there's a lot of stuff on the table to negotiate. i don't think the debt ceiling is something really to worry about. is more that we see a stronger dollar this year, not a weak dollar, and that continues to the negative or at least a headwind for e.m. and markets in asia for this year. tracy: you are talking about impact on em, another thing would be interest rates in the u.s.. those feed into the currency as well. would you have expectation saying the hiking cycle in the states is over? is that a potential tailwind for e.m., and is that a base case that you buy into? kieran: we need to back up.

rate rises were off the table for 2019 in the u.s. come that would mean the economy is performing poorly. especially considering where expectations were just a month ago. from there, it is not our base case that we see no rate rises. rises,you assume no rate weaker dollar, generally a , butind for asian markets not when the u.s. economy is weakening. i think it is a little bit complicated. intog dollar tied interest-rate rises. it's only recently we've seen future say possibly know rate rises this year. this could be due to few number of participants in the market at the moment. let's see what the actual economic data points to.

tracy: an interesting week and potentially an interesting year for global markets as well. thank you so much. next, should investors be worried about tesla's inventory buildup? one analyst does not think so. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tracy: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines with debra mao. shares of india's jet airways fell in mumbai, the second-largest airline is struggling to raise funds after losses worsened in the cash crunch. the payment due on december 31 two of consortium of banks was delayed due to a temporary cash flow mismatch.

the airline has not made a profit in nine of the past 11 fiscal years. and list from baird has dismissed concerns that led tesla stocks to fall as much as 2.5% on monday. he said the recent buildup in inventory is natural as the carmaker ramps up production to meet a tax credit deadline. an early report raised fears that tesla would face a law and demand early this year. there is a $455 price target. netflix is expected to announce it is hard new cfo. spencer newman, after his current employer set of new year's eve that it planned to fire him. has been the activision finance chief since may 2017. spokesman said he is on paid leave and his employment will be terminated unrelated to activision's fiscal performance. manus: president trump suggests

he wants a deal to end the government shutdown. we discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tracy: in new york, it is the eve after new year's eve and the celebrations are currently over. a lackluster start to 2019 underway in the asian trading session with the hang seng down more than 2% this morning off the backup disappointing back to numbers from across the region. that's feeding into u.s. equity futures, down over 1% this morning. let's check in on first word headlines with ever mao. with thee measure contraction for the first time since may 2017. manufacturing pmi fell, down from 50.2 in november.

trade war with the u.s. and a wider economic slowdown. and brazil's president has been sworn in. the former army captain promising to tackle crime, corruption, and economic malaise. suggests two poll months after his victory, 75% of brazilians think the new leader is on the right track. however, the reality is given up most of its postelection gains. italy's president has chastised the populist coalition government for ramming it spending plan through parliament. he used his year dressed warned the country's growing debt pile analyzes ordinary citizens. the deputy premier used his own ears beach to say there is plenty more to be done on the populist agenda, including cutting the pay of politicians.

yoursa may used a new video message to urge and the division over divisions of her brexit. saying the country has all it needs to thrive after leaving the european union. she said britain could turn a when parliament votes later this month. australia's prime minister scott morrison started 2019 with a pre-election pitch to voters. cuts, supportx for drought affected farmers and record funding for schools and hospitals. he's hoping a pledge to deliver a budget surplus will reverse his government slumping poll ratings. a vote must be held by made. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm debra mao. this is bloomberg. olddifferent year, same story may comes to equity

markets. investor still digesting week emi data that we got out of china. the hang seng down more than 600 points at the moment. kospi down by more than 1% at the moment. the time when is the one to watch the china urging for unification. the south korean won is the biggest drop we've seen in a hearing external conditions are quite weak and the aussie dollar falling in reaction to that pmi data. the chinese renminbi still seeing gains at the moment that the yen at a six-month high given the risk aversion we are seeing. if history is a guide come after we see a 10% correction or more, we tend to see rallies and a rebound, which we have seen time and time again. the clearrhaps

exception after the.com bubble burst. we will see if 2019 will be the case where we see some type of upside after the week sentiment we have seen. that is still the key thing to watch for asian stock investors, but today it really is about the data. hasy: president trump invited top congressional leaders from both parties to a white house briefing on border security after suggesting he wants to make a deal to end the government shutdown. jodi schneider joins us now. guess the question is, is this a sign of potential progress? >> it seems to be. it's the first time since the shutdown began on december 22 that we've heard of the president seeming like he is moving off his demand for that wall atbillion for that the southern border with mexico. it does seem to be some

progress. leadershipion was to of both the democrats and republicans of congress and the house democrats take over, take control of that chamber is in the next day. nancy pelosi tweeted back to the president saying she hopes this will be an opportunity to show how they can -- how the democrats can govern. it looks like perhaps there is certainly thety, first sign we have seen it is since that shutdown began 11 days ago. the negotiation, it will be interesting to see if he goes for another press conference. what do you think the democrats will put forward in terms of reaching a compromise? >> it looks like the democrats plan is to put forward to pieces of legislation. one would find a department that have been closed through the rest of the fiscal year, through september. the other bill would deal

specifically with homeland security which is where the border dispute lies. that would only find that through february 8. allowing the government to reopen while they try to negotiate on that border package. that is the plan from the democrats. the senate leadership has said they will wait to see what happens tween the house and the white house before they take up anything. it looks like it is in the house democrats hands at this point and perhaps president trump wanting to talk to them before they go ahead and start those negotiations now. .e will have to see a few days ago he tweeted that he wanted his full $5 billion for that wall. so this is a very fluid situation, but the government has been closed for 11 days, with people coming back from vacations and holidays, it

really is going to be more of a test now how much pain there will be with the government closed. so there is another u.s. political story out at the moment and that has to be this op ed from mitt romney in the washington post really ripping are trump for what he says shortfalls in the character of the u.s. president. what you think the impact of that will be? >> it is interesting. mitt romney has been a critic and will now be a senator in the next week. it is interesting because he is clearly someone of stature, a former republican presidential candidate, one of the levers of the republican party at one point. former governor, and he is making the case that this is a character issue. politics,debating on he is debating on character. it will get a lot of attention as the new congress starts, from

someone who has been a trump critic in the past. manus: jodi schneider there, our senior international editor. jong-unt story to kim and warned me that north korea will take a new path if economic sanctions are not relaxed. he also affirmed his willingness for further talks with president trump, who has responded on twitter by saying he also looks forward to meeting the north korean leader again. let's get more with stephen engle. good to see you this morning. fighting talk from kim and he's decided to go with the new style of communication. out with the podium and in with the big chair. of,hen: and a library full i don't know if they were real books because i wasn't there. there he is in the big captain

kirk chair. is very different from a year ago. keep in mind a year ago is when he pretty much confirmed that he had this nuclear arsenal. a nuclearabout having button on his desk all the time, and then donald trump responded saying he has a powerful button as well and it works. so there was back and forth, a lot of dangerous rhetoric that finally led to that summit in singapore in june. this time around, kim jong-un sending mixed signals. on one hand saying i'm waiting for another summit, i would like to meet donald trump. donald trump also saying, i would like to meet him as well. both sides kind of aiming for the first part of this year if they are going to have a second summit. at the same time, kim jong-un saying his patience is running out with the u.s. promises. he said if the u.s. does not deliver his promises and miss

judges are people's patients, we will have no choice but to seek a new path. we did not hear any new initiatives from kim jong-un other than he wants these crippling economic sanctions relaxed. maybe he will write an op-ed in the washington post as well, who knows. the u.s. is just one part of the north korea story. the other two major players have to be china and south korea. what messages did we see sent to them? stephen: he would like to see more cooperation on these issues beenouth korea, there are more efforts between those two countries to bridge their differences. the south koreans were also impressed with the fact that he completeterm denuclearization, which they say

he had not said in public before. so that was something new. he did have a warning for south korea not to continue with wargames with the united states. they is our position that firmly promised that they will move toward the path of peace and prosperity. military exercises with foreign powers should no longer be a loud. stephen: the u.s. wants their nuclear ambitions to end. north korea's definition of complete denuclearization is different. it means them also u.s. strategic assets off the peninsula. they have nuclear capable weapons on the peninsula. manus: thank you very much, stephen engle with the latest on kim jong-un. brazil's president sworn in. can he deliver on his pledge to

end the country's economic malaise? we discussed. this is bloomberg. ♪

tracy: checking on the indian markets in mumbai. such a happy new year for investors and indian and greece, it seems. >> good morning and happy new year to you as well. i must say india is slightly better off than its asian peers. but we have not started off with a big bang. it's not the best of days for trade. we started off slower in the session today, the currency is not gains are mad at me after what we've seen the last two or three days. think predominantly for two reasons, the commodity stocks have come off the session today,

all of them without exception or down in trade. and the monthly numbers for auto companies in india, without exception, all the auto stocks are down. bringing that little bit of pressure we are seeing in indian markets today. hopefully it will recover the way it did yesterday. manus: it looks like a bruising start to the year thank you very much. let's check in on the business flash headlines from around the world with debra mao. next it could be some time before the rio tinto ceo sees those outstanding bonuses. regulators continue investigating a $10.5 million payment made to a consultant on iron ore production project in guinea.

he is previously said he acted lawfully and in accordance with his duties while at the company. an analyst from bear has dismissed concern that led tesla stuffs the following much as 2.5% on monday. saying the build up his actual as the carmaker ramps up production to meet the tax credit deadline. an earlier report raised fears that tesla would face a lull in the van earlier this year. aired recommended buying tesla a $465 price target. will appoint spencer newman after his current employer said on new year's eve that it plans to fire him. newman has been activations finance chief since may 2017. the company says newman is on paid leave in his employment will be ended for causes unrelated to the financial performance. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you very much.

beenl's new president has sworn in. he comes to power promising to tackle rampant crime, corruption, and economic turmoil in a wave of nationalism that is sweeping the country. in front of us a unique opportunity to rebuild our country and to rescue the hope of our compatriots. i'm sure we will face huge challenges. we will achieve our goals. us is donna, good to see you this morning. i looked at some of the stats in the story, 75% of brazilians believe he is on the right track and the markets would seem to concur with that. there is a consensus building. >> when we surveyed about 30 investors a little over a month ago, most of them are actually

positive about the assets. stock and bonds were at the top of the list for emerging markets. the right guy to bring the sort of economic reforms the nation needs. tracy: i think we would be remiss if we didn't ask you about consensusbuilding for the broader emerging market space. it was not a good year for e.m. investors in 2018. what is 2019 expected to be like? >> there are so many challenges ahead of us this year. of course we have trade, we have issues with the fed. also we should look at the impact the increase in interest rates will have on assets across emerging markets. we are not just talking about the fed. we are talking that places like turkey and india, where interest-rate increases will impact the cost of money and that will impact earnings going

forward. manus: the other thing that , thee evident this morning number of elections, we got thailand, south africa, a host of political risk coming onto the agenda. they are always good value for money. >> absolutely. every year in emerging markets we have a lot of risk. this year is not any different. we will be looking closely at these elections. we will also be looking to see how investors will be positioning themselves ahead of these elections. as we see with other elections in 2018, there will be a lot of trauma going forward. manus: we like that. tracy: lots of drama to look forward to. thank you so much for that. let's turn to something else that has been full of drama this

year, commodities, of course. is down around 1% this morning, news that will no doubt please president trump. areas tweeted, gas prices low and will be expected to go down this year. anthony joins us with more details. presidentu think trump is looking at here and how is it shape up against the consensus for the street for commodities prices in 2019? anthony: the tweet is interesting and sets off the tone for the year. i have just arrived from washington, d.c., and it doesn't take a trip there to tell you this will be an election year in the united states. just got out of the congressional midterm elections and now we are already ramping up for 2020. hasn't really gotten out of campaign mode since he entered the white house, is looking at gasoline prices as a

barometer of how things are doing for consumers, how he is doing in pressuring opec to keep the process down, and as a energyer of how the u.s. industry is doing in continuing to pump out food oil. -- crude oil. looking at the bottom line numbers as well as the increase in shale coming onto the market in creating that potential and opec,etween trump which is something that hasn't gone away and will pressure the group throughout the year is to try to bolster those prices and bring those levels up. oil, the worst showing in a number of years, since 2015. it's interesting, you have libya and outages, the prospect of a government shutdown, but it is global trade that seems to be causing the asked in markets this morning.

this will put more pressure on the gathering, isn't it? hurts the chinese demand, which has been a real the oilr oil prices and price rises over the past couple of years. that will hurt the prospects. what we are seeing is that oversupply in the market, the surging supplies of the u.s. coming on top of increasing production from some opec countries. they haven't been able to bring in all the production needed to increase the prices so we will see that continue. we also have countries like india that will react to things like donna just mentioned, like the currencies and interest-rate increases. that will be hitting some of the pockets for consumers and that is bad for oil. tracy: it feels like a short while ago when we were talking about oil and potentially $100

per barrel. anthony, thank you so much. up next, bloomberg size and scope. .1 percent.ber is -0 find out why, next. this is bloomberg ♪.

tracy: every day we break down one superlative from our covers, and today's number is -0.1 percent. eric joins us from the hong kong studio. it is a negative number, what is it? eric: it's the number for singapore property prices. quarter, in the fourth the first time that has dropped in the past six quarters. i wouldn't worry too much about singapore prices just yet. still up 7.9% for the year, so it is the best increase in eight years, actually. the culprit was additional

measures brought out by the singapore government back in july to tempt down some of the jump in prices to avoid the similar property bubble that we got in hong kong. financing, and it seems to be working. manus: someone say the aussie seen thearket has bubble territory and perhaps is beginning to pop. sydney prices getting a few cranks across them. for sydneyst numbers property prices down as well, down more than 11% from the 2017 high. further deepening what looks to be the worst property drop off in australia since the 1980's when they last had a reception. nationwide, prices are up 4.8% as well. deteriorating property conditions in australia. for sydney, they are still coming off a five-year boom or

prices are up 60% from 2012. a lot of buyers are not underwater at the moment, but it is a worrying signal for the central bank. tracy: eric lam, thank you so much for the daily size and scope. it is not shaping up to be a very good session here in asia. the msci asia-pacific down currently .8%. the big concern will be the follow on flight in u.s. equity futures. that contract is down .82%. certainly not shaping up to be a very good trading session in the states. is the contraction bell on trade that is ringing in singapore under pressure, contraction in china, crude takes a bashing, down .5%.

where do you go for haven status? is it the dollar? debates wehe market continue right here on "daybreak: middle east." ♪ amazon prime video is now on xfinity x1.

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