tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg January 3, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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the gloom sees another leading voice going for a fed pause. the uncertainty just too great. anchor: let's get you started with the markets close in the u.s. we saw u.s. stocks declined but the dow fall in more than 600 points and nasdaq also down 3%. every sector on the s&p 500 was in the red with the exception of defenses like utilities and real estate, the biggest fall since christmas eve. we had some negative data out of the manufacturing index, which fell the most since the recession. that for growing concerns over the u.s. outlook and at the same time, concerns over apple at the cut there -- as they cut their sales outlook. 29 of the 30 chipmakers on the index fell in this session. ..s. features trade tomorrow
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i would not be surprised to see a lot of pressure given what we have seen on the u.s. market on this there's a session and right now, futures looking up 2/10 of 1%. we will see how trading will get started in asia. powell, the optimism he had carried through the part of the year. this is one of the performances, down yesterday. terribly heavy weighted when it comes to text, but also getting a boost from energy prices. we are seeing early declines in up aftere dollar back that crash of 10 years -- 10 year lows yesterday.
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reporter: a top white house advisor said the trade war with china will force many u.s. companies will join apple and announcing lower-than-expected earnings. downgrades will keep coming into their cash until there is a deal with beijing. a former chinese trade official says he is optimist it -- optimistic. cystic security says china will improve funding this month as liquidity tightens for the spring festival holidays. men and residents will withdraw more than $140 billion in cash for gifting in red envelopes. they will inject a significant amount of cheap money . the state department is warning
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traveling ininst china. not recognizes dual nationality. north korea's acting ambassador to italy has disappeared. the south korean spy agency has said he and his wife went into hiding in november just before it was scheduled to end. they say it would be an embarrassment to kim jong-un as diplomacy in washington. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. anchor: thank you. let's get more on the sharp drop in the u.s. -- on the u.s. stocks.
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surprising data out of china, but also the u.s. compounding theseserve -- compounding . like safe haven back and demand your you take a look at movement of gold and yen. what happened overnight other than just apple? last theis one of the market wants to hear weakening. let's take a look at the way the dow dropped. it was down 707 point, at its lowest which is right when the factor data hit, the biggest drop in almost a decade. there are many that think the fed will cut rates. let's look at the apple carnage because not only is apple down 10%, but close to
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eight of the biggest hedge funds on wall street have huge stakes in apple and they combined for a human -- $2 billion. let's go into the bloomberg real quick. as i mentioned, there is an indication that now it is a given that the fed will have to pause on interest rates. this is a forward spread. it fell negative on wednesday. it is telling you that the fed is likely to cut rates sometime soon. let's take a look at the market snapshot. bonds rallied, perhaps not as a haven, but because of the change in picture. let's take a look at the semi conductor index. the size of the drop, many of
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the 30 components of that index are suppliers of apple. taking a very big drop and again, technical analysts point out that it tends to bode poorly for the friday u.s. trade. >> the reason that apple has become a bigger story is he saw hotel chains, airlines, international travel, trade related companies and it is about the fact that maybe this andle story [indiscernible] how the impact of the trade war is starting to play out. reporter: let's take a look at the losses for apple suppliers. , that is one of apple's biggest suppliers. if you take a look at barry on
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hotels, hilton hotels, a large presence in china. investors concerned that they too are exposed to downturns in revenue. delta a different story, but related, they cut revenue forecast for the second time in two months. some of the other big movers, there was one bright spot and that was celgene. othert the losses at the companies, all of which have exposure to the trade story and international sales. anchor: gains for wti and gold. reporter: wti interesting because while we saw oil with the same volatility as the stock market, it moved higher, perhaps on the view that the saudi cuts are a much bigger story and the u.s.uncertainty in
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let's take a look at gold, also continuing on a path higher aiming for 1300. we should point out that copper 2017, the lowest since reacting to the week factory data here in the u.s. anchor: thank you for the latest on the markets. joining us now is tony. always great to have you with us. let's get started with apple. the huge plunge in the stock price could mean for the broader markets. the bloomberg weber showing how apple has lost four hedge of billion dollars in market cap since october. billion in lost $400 market cap since october. what signals is apple sickening us about the broader markets --
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sending us about the broader markets? constantss one of the , it has some guilt by association by the generals that lead the way as he struggles, -- lead the way as the amazon's, facebooks. s&p -- doess, the the s&p 500. that will be a heavy hand on the s&p 500 it anchor: apple -- on the s&p 500. u.s.r: we could see other outlook.wing their
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which sectors will get the most? -- will get his the most? -- hit the most? dopart of this has to between what is going on u.s.-relations. possibly also some chinese retaliation. we will let that play out and see how it plays out. the market is painting with red paint anyone that has an association with trade going on but the tariff story. as --global macroeconomic that people are trying to use and that is where we think the market has got it wrong. there are too many people focusing on the global macro factors to determine what to buy and whatnot to buy.
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ultimately, a healthy thing that the market is trying to sort out. macroosed to this global [indiscernible] view of things. anchor: if you are looking at the spectrum of views, which is this month will be a terrible one. volatility oreat the market will rebound. in reality, the outcome will be somewhere in the middle. have you position your portfolio how do you position your portfolio for that? risks in thet market is where the enthusiasm has persisted for quite some earlynd is in the beginnings of being extinguished. when you are paying 200 times
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multiples, betting the next 20 on these companies come up, high revenue companies investing in based on the future on what they can do, that is what we think has to die and that is where we think the biggest risks are. uprates throughout 2018 went , you saw people start to demand more on their money. out and thatpeaked .s when people started to worry mortgage rates are picking up, that kind of thing currently, you need to avoid those pockets of over valuation. anchor: lots more to talk about us. tony, staying on with
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we are looking at the rating out of the u.s. compounding these concerns starting with the revenue forecast downgraded by apple. also coming up, we dig a little deeper into apple. fallout will- the [indiscernible] much more from his asian suppliers. this is bloomberg. -- much more from its asian suppliers. this is bloomberg.
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get these remarks over the last year about how betrayed won't see through the macro data. is it starting to leak there? -- leak through? report,was a december that is the signal. this was the biggest one-month drop since the great recession in 2008. andborders were down production index moving the most since 2012. .ere, the overall numbers well over 60 for a while back in october. go down here, 5.2%. that is the size of the drop. you have to go all about two 2008 in the september report -- or the october report.
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-- you have to go all the way back to 2008 in the september report -- or the october report. u.s., italy falling in line. let's jump into a chart and show you the 10 year yield. you see how the market is well. this is on the far right side. you can see in the middle of the screen the big drop. out is when the number came . it has been a big move. the economists dropping their call for a large rate hike, now they are saying general september likely. if there are want to be any rate hikes, probably if anything a cut. anchor: we are also seeing the
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same from a venture capitalists. what is he saying? and think he is a centrist they can to -- he says three things he is watching closely as he calls for a pause in rate hikes. interest rate sectors like housing have done so much weaker. here is what he told bloomberg television earlier today. >> we should not take any further action on interest rates until these issues are resolved for better or worse, so i would be an advocate of taking no action. for example, in the first couple of quarters this year, my base case would be take no action at all. that balanceys --et reduction is necessary
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if necessary could be adjusted. you see on the far left side of the screen, probability of cuts still low. sometime it suggests that the 2020.ility rises by april go down on the bottom. hikerobability of a rate which has gotten stronger and if meeting, the large probability was up about 60% in september. it is down to zero. rob ability of a cut, the orange line, nobody believed it. now there is a chance they are. you can see sentiment in the mood changing. jay powell speaks tomorrow in atlanta. anchor: it will be a very important friday.
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tony, will the markets force the federal reserve's hand next year? not --e is certainly a and a lot of noise about what will go on. as someone mentioned, housing and homebuilding stocks a few minutes ago. all your longred third 2018 -- all your long third 2018 -- all your long year long18 -- all through 2018. the idea of housing affordability being a little too high when rates were going up. now, we have the reverse. the housing market is stalling out, some cases getting
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moderated and now we have mortgage rates going down. economic stabilization, things going on right now that are going to help in the fight to reignite the economy. risk, 3.54 on the 10 year has come down dramatically. oil is in a bear market, so that is a major input cost to the united states economy. some of these things you would want and expect to rignet the economy are naturally playing out as we wait to see how it may or may not do. the extension of the bull market last year, we called it the trump want -- bump. how right would it be to call it the trump slump? is it because of trade or what the fed is doing? >> we can call whatever we want to call it.
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again, too much focus on macroeconomic and political in my opinion. this is a great time to look for high-quality, cheap companies. companies and build for what is to come. we have a market and youth have the last decade growing in a positive value. it has done so by the biggest magnitude so you can go back and look. what you have got is this fantastic, high-quality cheap companies that are being forgotten about the same way they were forgot about in the 1990's. there are good opportunities to look at right now for
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investments in longer time frames. anchor: we want to get your views on asia. in terms of broader e.m.'s and dollar --ave a weaker is that a revival for emerging markets? emerging markets encompasses and a lot of companies out there, so certainly there will be some winners and losers. you talked about countries, namely china. the last decade, the chinese market peaked in 2007 and still down 50% from the. if you want to look at the state of economic growth, the gdp numbers and you would not see the tenure bond traded three and a quarter right now, toned down
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from 410 about the year ago. down 90 basis points while they have a 6-6.5 real gdp number. we don't see economic expansion on the horizon there. we continue to see contraction. you look at japan and it is zero on the tenure right now and it has been multiple decades of economic loss of prosperity. they don't have the tailwind u.s.-- that we have in the anchor: tony, thank you for joining us. talking through some of the risks and rewards for the new year. much more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg.
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>> it is 10:30 a.m. here in sydney. markets have been trading for 30 minutes. we are seeing some downside, trading on the main benchmark, off 51%. it was an opera former here in asia but we are seeing energy giving up gains. you are seeing tech stocks driving losses down by 1.8% in sydney. after follow the leader the impasse of that, all revenue guidance downgrade crashed through asian stocks as well as the u.s. and the european supplies as well. really calling into question the resilience of the global recovery and how bad is trade war and the china slowdown
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scenario is likely to get. shery: the u.s. suppliers got hit. 6:30 p.m. in new york. s&p futures slighting higher, up to twice as an -- up to 5%. i am shery ahn in new york. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. ed: apple suffered its worst day since january 2013. the stock tumbling 10% after the iphone maker cut its quarterly forecast on struggling sales in china. the tech giant has priced themselves out of the world's biggest market. and advisor want more u.s. companies will be forced to downgrade outlooks until there is a trade war deal. nancy pelosi was elected house speaker as democrats took control of the chamber. it makes pelosi the most powerful democrat and returned
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to the post she held in 2007- 2011. she is the only woman to ever hold the speakership. she outlined and infrastructure plans and called for more government chance -- an infrastructure plan and called from a government transparency. paper says carlos ghosn used a special nissan fund to pay $48 million to business is run by two of his acquaintances in the middle east. it is unclear what the payments were for. ghosn has been accused of understating his pay and breach of trust. he has been in custody since november. the majority of oil executives are planning to boost spending and increase production. 45% of those surveyed say their primary goal for 2019 is to output. more than half said they planned on hike spending. robert kaplan says he expects production to grow by one million barrels put a -- per day
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or more. robert: i think you will see, because there is so many drilled but uncompleted wells, you will see production that increase by a million barrels per day plus. the issue will be if this lower goes on, it may affect 2020. our surveys show in my discussions, we are above break even for most areas ed: of the basin. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ed ludlow. this is bloomberg. >> let's now look closer at apple. the stock suffered its biggest plunge on the revenue outlook cut. mark gurman joins us from los angeles. much is this a china problem and how much is this apple-specific? paper, it is almost
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entirely a china problem according to apple. that is what they are saying. we don't have the data they are looking at. according to them, this is 100% to china problem. picture-wise, it's more of a global problem. they have priced themselves out of markets with the latest iphone iterations. $200ewest one is overpriced compared to the competition. looking at china specifically, doubledof the iphone xs to four times the pricing of comparable phones that are being pushed so heavily by carriers in china. we are seeing the negative outcome play out in china. the fierce this will spread to other regions. there is no reason to believe it will -- the fear this will spread to other regions. there is no reason to believe it will. shery: no wonder consumers are
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not really replacing iphones as much as before given the high prices. we could see a cut in iphone pricing. what could we expect for the rest of 2019? mark: that is a good question. 2019, wemagine that are not going to see any significant changes in the plans apple already had in its roadmap. it seems this situation to them by surprise. it was november 1 when apple gave its guidance of between $89 billion to $93 billion for the q1 holiday quarter. that means something happened between november 1 and january 1, the two-month period. franz are typically released arey -- new iphones typically released every november. it is not enough time for them to come out with a dramatically cheaper iphone, so i think what we are going to see are more dramatic changes to their marketing. we are going to see new
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deals. i heard speculation about where you can get a free apple music or apple watch or something like that. an additional product. there's ways they can tweak demand and supply and pushing people to buy phones until they have a up they can create for 2020 and beyond which might appeal to create until they can one for 2020 and beyond which might appeal. haidi: i think if you take a look at apple supplies as a bellwether, they were falling for much of last year. what could have possibly happened in those two months? is there some kind of question mark on the way apple might have communicated this expectation of weakness given the structural chinese slowdown which has been happening for quite some time? mark: quite frankly, they dropped the ball big-time. two months ago is not a long
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time ago. quite frankly, they could have known. i don't want to say that they did know. we don't know that's a fact. the fact that they were able to switch at the flick of a wrist or like a light switch to change that guidance by between $5 billion and $10 billion, it's a large amount of money. it's very shopping there were able to drop the ball so much on that -- shocking they were able to drop the boston much on that. haidi: mark gurman -- dropped the ball haidi: so much on that. mark gurman -- dropped the ball so much on that. haidi: mark gurman, thank you. robert, great to have you, and happy new year. the industry has its own set of cyclical problems. it's in the middle of the boom bust cycle. some of the heard big players in the space announcing as much as $60
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billion for facilities investments, that will turn out more supply this year. this is really terrible. apple's at the top of the food chain when it comes to demand. >> apple accounts for roughly 10% of all semiconductor demand. we have been through perhaps the longest and strongest cyclical upturn in the semiconductor industry in the history of the industry, reaching $450 billion, and we have seen huge upticks in spending. as we have seen a cyclical slowdown what started earlier in the year and was talked about by other tsmc,cturers such as which has 20% of its business with apple, we have seen pullbacks, most recently, micron said they would be reeling in their spending by about $1.5 billion in samsung has already cut it. december a report on
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25 in the korean herald that samsung would be applying further cuts to its spending. , it's probably easier for them to adjust to its protocold needs given and gratian, but how flexible are the other players in the industry to be about to adjust what could he a new normal of lower demand, not just for apple, but the beginning of slower demand, of disruption to trade, and other companies being affected as well. robert: the industry has gotten flexible with fewer players returning out a higher percentage of the chips. they are able to modulate the spending much more quickly than they used to. a sharp cutback in spending which will affect companies like applied materials, asm orthography, research, other companies that supply the equipment. they are at the bottom of the food chain.
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backquipment will be cut as we are in an oversupply condition. shery: when we talk about this trickle-down impact from apple, where are you going to see the most affect -- effect? haidi: there are three basic chips -- back up robert: there are three basic chips that go into an iphone. accounts for approximately 10%, the largest component of dram, followed by processors, so tsmc is perhaps the most impacted by the slowdown at apple, 20% of their revenue comes from apple or apple associated products. industry the memory who produce memory that go into iphones will also be impacted. the memory impact will be greater because the industry has already started to slide six
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months ago due to an oversupply andition and reduced demand further reduce demand out of apple, and the smartphone industry will double down on their problems. shery: companies like macron are cheap but they are getting -- micron are cheap but they are getting cheaper. would they be attractive on valuation level? not yet. their earnings have held up and they are trading at very low multiples am a but buying them might the catching a falling beer because the market continues to decline. i think we have heard of negative news in the semiconductor industry for nine months now and this apple news is the latest news. tsmc warned in the beginning of , so we heard this news was coming and some of the industry were surprised apple have not talked about it earlier. haidi: you have been negative for a wild. robert: -- a while.
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robert: yes. 84%.y grew to spending in the industry was well beyond any historical levels we have seen in the past to the point where we were getting to an oversupply correctn which always in this time corrected rather .harply we do not expect that to bounce back very quickly anytime soon. haidi: we have been talking all morning about whether the apple story is really a broader macro china narrative. for south korea, the risks are greater given the country gets almost 25% of its trade coming from the semiconductor industry alone. china is certainly impacted, aside from the one million people associated with the production of iphones in china. china is looking at being
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self-sufficient in the semiconductor industry and as we are entering a week period, it's -- weak period, it's difficult for them to become more dominant in a market that is falling, so i think that creates even more competition as we have seen in the semi conductor industry before, which started in the u.s. and japan and korea and taiwan came into the industry, introducing a lot more competition. china will introduce further competition. the industry is concerned about the same thing happening in the semiconductor industry that happened in the solar and led industry with china's entering into the market. record ofis a track overinvestment when it comes to china. it's a pretty bad time to enter the fray after we are seeing a sustained downturn. capitalmost of the new
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spending in the industry is going on in china. most of the uptick is coming out of chinese firms. the chinese government is pouring on the order of $100 million in the made in china 2025 effort with my conductors being the focal point of that. haidi: robert, really fascinating stuff. president of semiconductor one look attaking one industry that is looking to suffer in particular from this apple downturn and also apple feeling the global pain. global automakers all declining today after a week finish to 2018. i'm going to take a look at why it might not get much better in 2019, and that is up next on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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i am shery ahn in new york. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. there is now warnings of contagion coming from the white house. one of president trump's top officials is saying the trade war with china will force more companies to gut their earnings outlooks. a look at all the bad news, it could just be the beginning. it could be just the beginning according to the chair of the white house council of economic advisors. what has been happening here really could be kind of a canary in the chinese coal mine as it were. let's take a listen to what he had to say. is natural that the prophets, to the extent they are generated in china, would be going down. the chinese economy is slowing. one of the reasons markets are responding the way they are is they are downgrading the forecast. the chinese economy is on a path that we have not seen in decades. begun,ay have only just
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basically, is what he is saying. he says "there are a heck of a lot of u.s. companies that have sales in china and they will watch their earnings being downgraded next year." we have not seen a lot of that happen. apple being one of the first few. over the past 24 hours, you can see on the screen, this is the equity screening function on the bloomberg terminal, and we put in a couple screens here. one is for companies that have a $10 billion market cap or higher . in addition, if they get 10% of their revenue from china, we can see some of the biggest losers here. .orvo down 9% broadcom also down 9%. apple down 10%. nike down by about not so much here, but 2%. it does range, but a lot of it obviously on the tech side of things but also spanning into other sectors, and i want to show you that on the other
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side of your screen. follow me to the far wall here is beyond technology, it affecting the luxury and retail stocks. we are seeing them slide. lvmh down by 4% today. is down isthat because they get a little more than 25% of their revenue from asia and japan. we can get a little bit of a reading in terms of how important china is. every few hours, they are opening up a new store in china so the country's fortunes are tied here. beyond luxury and retail stocks sliding, we are seeing mobility stocks sliding. boeing we know is a big producer china.nes headed for daimler, we are seeing that. fedex down by about 3.7%. they did cut the profit forecast in late december because of a tensions that are going around the world with regard to the u.s. and china trade war.
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pulling up the screen one more time, you get the picture here that there is more red and red continuing. marriott, hilton, and hyatt down. marriott and hilton have a bigger share in terms of their presence in china, so they are doing worse than the bloomberg amerco's index which by itself is down by nearly 4%. we can see the future fortunes are tethered to china. these other rooms in development. felton, 90,000. their share of the global pipeline is around 20% or or so. going up to 31% as he talk about apple, the canary in the coal mine. we have only just begun. if you talked to a lot of analysts out there including the chair of the council of economic advisers, kevin has it. >> ramy inocencio, thank you so
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much for that. automakers have reported a weak finish for the year for u.s. vehicle sales, but japanese brands stole the show with tyler to falling less than anticipated while honda and nissan beat expectations. let's get the outlook from tokyo now with mr. for richter, deputy head of japan research. great to have you with us. anything that surprise you out of the december numbers? >> the biggest surprise came from nissan. they had a very strong finish to the year after being massively down. sounds like as there was some money on the table. nissan in the second half had been aggressively trying to pull back on incentives and i have not looked at the numbers yet, but i read reports that they are putting them back on, so it is sort of a mixed bag with nissan. i think toyota is really the one that has been, you know, offorming the most solidly
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the three makers. shery: you sent us a couple of charts showing that global auto byes will finish 2018 up 1.7%, which is sort of lower than your 2017 forecast. what are your expectations for 20 and what will be the biggest challenges? >> 2019 is going to be a truly challenging year for the global auto industry, because we have headwinds in a number of the key markets. for example, u.s. demand is probably going to stay flat to slightly down. in europe, you had a boost to sales ahead of the environmental regulation change, which is not going to be replaced in 2019, and of course, we have been talking all morning about economic headwinds in china. overall, we can the global industry could be down around 1%. haidi: christopher, what is the 2019?t trend for is this the year we talk about
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ev's coming into the mainstream?we had a pickup in momentum. does that get sustained? christopher: i think we will see this as a stand for a couple of good reasons. in china, this is the first year where the new energy vehicle policy takes effect, and china is going to start to establish itself as the world leader in electricity have all's. also in the u.s., we started to see tesla start to deliver decent volumes of its model three sedan, and also, that will keep tesla and the topic of electric vehicles very much in the headlights. nextat ces, which starts week, we will see nissan's ev outfitted with a bigger battery. the news flow on that area will stay very strong. shery: that is kind of the optimism or good news. let's talk about the elephant in the room which is these trade tensions. we heard earlier from the white
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house, one of the officials there saying the apple downward revision story is just the beginning. we are going to see more companies having to cut their forecast as a result of the impact of the trade war. do you see that as the case given some of these daily at lamoni money is levels of negotiations over tariffs? christopher: there's two parts to this. first on the china side, it works on the japanese automakers favor, which is my beat. there is not a trade were between japan and china and maybe toyota, honda, and nissan pick up the pieces that fall from the american makers. where the department of congress has been working on its report, we are hearing that the report will be published around the middle of february. and should mr. trump decide to go forward with that, that would be a huge escalation in the trade war between the u.s. and
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all of its trading partners, but that would certainly be a big negative for the auto industry, particularly for the japanese, korean, and european automakers. shery: in 2019, the chinese policy kicks off. that is a huge experiment. what should we expect? christopher: i think the biggest be can thes going to government incentivize consumers enough to go after ev's? there is one very good thattivization in they are relapsed for you let's relaxed for electric vehicles. to put out more money for them, that is going to -- to see when the rubber hits the road for ev's in china and how will consumers react, that is going to be the big challenge. shery: it's all about trade
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tensions, as we just mentioned, and ballooning auto tariffs. beijing benefit and how does it compare to the u.s.? what beijingi mean would get out of this is you start to get a more competitive industry and this would generate in thensolidation chinese industry. one of the problems for china as a market, still a fragmented industry, which makes it hard for local players to earn profit. higher profits for the larger more dominant makers. foreign makers have benefited as the chinese have dialed down tariffs on imported vehicles. toyota's lexus brand, foley and imported brand, is way up in the double digits in the chinese market, and that has been a very profitable change the toyota motor.
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shery: christopher, thank you so much for joining us. see also a -- cl is a deputy head of -- clsa the pd head of japan research. deputy head of japan research. they won't have to play catch-up to the global selloff. this coming after japanese investors saw a year of $900 billion of stock value vanishing. the nikkei lost 10% just in december, so we could see a lot of pressure when the market reopens, haiti. -- haidi. haidi: we saw foreign investors bailing out as well. but all smiles for the finance mr., taro aso, as we -- minister, taro aso. they are playing catch-up in terms of the selling demand we
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haidi: and there good morning to you. i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. asia's major markets have just opened for trade. live pictures as tokyo markets resume trading for the year after being closed for just about a week for christmas. open: it could be a brutal as we have seen huge global selloff's all across the world. good evening bloomberg's global headquarters in new york. i am shery ahn. welcome to "daybreak asia."
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