i'm mark crumpton. president trump says he is considering making a national emergency declaration to secure funding for a wall on the border with mexico. the remarks came during it press conference in the rose garden following a meeting with nancy pelosi and the congressional democratic leadership. if he asked to confirm told chuck schumer that the shut down could last months or years. >> absolutely i said that. i don't think it will but i am prepared and i think i can speak for republicans in the house and senate. they feel strongly about having

a safe country. >> the president added that he would not end up reopening the government agencies until he gets order security. he said we have to get a structure built. nancy pelosi said she told the president the democrats will not consider a demand for money to pay for a border wall until the government is reopened. contrary to the president's assertion that speaker pelosi described the meeting is lengthy and contentious. >> we recognize a democratic side that cannot resolve this until we open of the government and we made that clear to the president. paychecks are being withheld from people who serve the needs of the american people. our border security will suffer if we do not resolve this issue. >> with no shutdown resolution

in sight, the president and the democratic leadership agreed to additional staffing talks over the weekend. says therder agency number of unauthorized crossings into europe fell 25% last year to a five-year low. migrants entered into stain get the mediterranean continue to climb. over how tokering manage migrant arrivals. withry clinton is meeting democratic candidates for the 2020 presidential race. secretary clinton is meeting with top-tier contenders who are seeking her endorsement. witheports she has met cory booker and elizabeth warren. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> from bloomberg world headquarters, this is bloomberg markets the close. >> we are but 30 minutes from the end of the trading day. in the green across all major benchmarks. the nasdaq is outperforming out four percentage points. this is a worldwide risk on sentiment. japan was down because the end was stronger. asia let us higher on chinese stimulus. then, you had the fed and u.s. jobs data and trade talks seem optimistic as world as well.

money is coming out of the havens. >> it is pretty remarkable. it is across-the-board here. we are looking at 29 of 30 members of the doubt is higher. verizon is unchanged. the faang stocks are leading the way. apple is getting a bit of a reprieve. prices has come back a little bit. the dollar notably is weaker. except versus the end. the yen. experience the intersection of politics in the market here daily. we see it in brazil also. optimism over the newly inaugurated president. he has ideas on how to liberalize your gun laws.

for more on this story, we want to welcome our guest. she is a businessweek reporter. you have a great story in business that talks about the nra and its influence abroad. biggest thing we need to look at is brazil. sonnew president and his have made a big sticking point of their fandom of the nra. they have stickers in their office. they have pro nra sentiment when they were running the campaign. now that he is in office, he has announced that he is looking to relax firearm regulation in brazil. brazil leads the word -- world in a gun death. sits -- statistic you want to brag about. other countries looking, what does that mean for

the nra? >> it depends on what side of politics you are on. what has been happening with whoia and maria butina admitted to being a registered , that has the perception that the nra is going to have a challenge managing. second amendment supporters are going to's -- stand by them no matter what. >> there are a lot of challenges that the nra is dealing with including declining donations. how much of that is being made up by foreign donations? >> foreign gun makers are major donors to the group. beretta has given a million dollars. we have to look at the member dues. that is a big driving force for the emaar -- nra.

that has not been strong at this time. tot drives those membership daesh donations are mass shooting events where people want to show their support and big political swings. when there is a fear of gun control, people want to donate to the nra to protect the second amendment. those donations are not strong at this moment. >>those donations are not strong at this moment.

let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. the first week brought as a slew of bleak reports for the economy. according to the bank of england, mortgage approval dipped to a low in november. housing prices rose last year at the slowest pace since 2013. hackers have published cell phone numbers and information belonging to members of every german political party.

this also affected angela merkel. it is the biggest data dump of its kind and there is no evidence pointing to russia. that is your business flash update. are only 15 minutes from the close. analysis.et an what a rally. interesting on the fact the dollar has been weaker today. what is behind that? the idea going into the not a interview was that lot was going to come from this. they were going to touch on policy or step on each other's toes. they went right into it. the interview took them down the rabbit hole. all of these comments came out

about monetary policy and economic policy. >> what was your take away from the interview? was powell more dovish than people expected? >> everybody says that. i am loath to think that. he said it in the november meeting that they were not on a predetermined path. that is what he said today as well. he said we are really data-dependent. one take away the traders had, i do think it is the incorrect take away is that the fed was listening to financial markets and they thought that meant that they were able to dictate policy to the fed. the market was cut short into a conversation the people did not believe is going to have a major impact and move the markets and

it did the opposite of what people thought. >> you would have thought good news would always be good news when it comes to labor data in terms of the federal reserve. the market still doesn't think there's going to be a single rate hike in 2019. >> we spoke about this yesterday. there was a huge bid in the futures market yesterday. markets not seeing something numberss coming, ism globally slowing down with no expectations of a fed that is going to influence the markets. then you have this conversation in the blowout data in jobs. they were also caught the wrong way around. >> let's not lose sight of the today wasing in

bullish because of what was happening in china. loosening policy at into stimulus. we have seen china do this before and typically it is not the first or last move. >> it has worked. -- has not worked. they have been doing this for five or six years. they are not loosening policy is much as people think. the lending facilities will not be rolled over. it is a conversation of that. if you think about it in fed terms, it would be like the fed cutting the fed funds rate and at the same time selling off the balance sheet. policy by monetary balancing it out. that is what china is doing. they are trying to target where they are trying to put the money which is in the smaller private sector. >> think you for coming on.

which is uphe fx i three and a half percent. >> it was a global rally. .oney coming out of bonds this is bloomberg. ♪

this is countdown to the close. >> joining us as always is joe weisenthal. >> lots of different pieces of news, all of it very good for risk assets starting with the cut.se reserve ratio the jobs report, the dovish comments from powell and the other former fed chairs and a decent ism services data

indicating we are not in a recession yet. the fed speak and the pboc moves indicate the banks are aware of what is going on. when you put that together, you get a day like today. not enough to even slightly rock. >> that speaks to something from a few weeks ago. people were citing washington dysfunction as a major reason for the volatility. today, that shows that is minor and the data and the fed are working in your favor. judging by the president's comments on how long the shutdown could last, let's look at how it shapes up in the market. we are looking at the cyclicals. chipmakers up 4.7%. complete opposite. has -- as3.7% even

goal -- oil has given up some of its advance. everything is green. >> amazing. think about this time yesterday, everything was a sea of red. tothe president top from two 3 p.m. and the market did not blink during that time. >> we are moments away from the market close. let's dive deep into the action. i am watching something that is even more positive than december 26 boxing day which was also a great day for u.s. stocks. a great day for credit. i have one chart that shows, look at the degree of spread tightening. the bars are your high-yield cash bonds. you have consistent spread tightening their unlike on the

26th. then one other pocket of the market, three high data issues alike to look at. three bonds. all three of these rose today. bond prices up, yields down. when these are doing well, you know risk appetites are back for real. these internett names. goldman is bullish on these adding netflix to their conviction list. two of them have been upgraded to a buy. analysts across the street are bullish hoping that netflix decouples from the faang trade. there is a big moment up ahead for netflix. we are looking at the subscriber

adds in blue and in white the share prices. we see this is going in the right direction. up until the end of last year in terms of the subscriber miss for the second quarter, also the share prices. aght now we are looking at projected subscriber addition for the fourth quarter of $9.4 million. -- 9.4 million. you would expect this make or break chart to hold on. it will be interesting to watch this chart. >> scarlet mentioned that the chipmakers are some of the best performers so i am going to go there. look at amd. best performer in the stoxx index. they have done a very good job on two fronts. gain marketfy and

share. also in terms of where they get their revenue. they don't have a ton of concerns when it comes to apple. apple doesn't top the top 10 in terms of where they get their revenue. the second is china. don't worry about amd, only 30% of their revenue comes from china. qualcomm gets 67% of its revenue from china. amd is sensitive to the chip cycle but they are really looking at chips in the pcs and servers and that is starting to help differentiate them and boosting the stock today. >> that was great perspective. the rally and stocks across the board for a number of positive catalysts. everything is in the green,

particularly tech. >> absolutely. even apple, which is coming off of those revenue cuts, they are up about 4%. you are seeing it across the board with the tech names coming back. clearly, there is risk appetite in the market. if you look at risky areas of the market, you are seeing them all higher today. >> how crazy is it that this is only the best day since december 26? >> everything you look at says this is the best day since december 26. if you look behind that, then it goes back much further. it shows the extent of the gains that we have been seeing or the losses even since that day. since the day after christmas when we got the amazing rally. andave been seeing ups

downs and swings ever since then. i love when he brought up the three corporate bonds that we should be keeping an eye on. one is having the best day since august 2011. it is fully risk on. >> it shows you that it is across the board. that best day was the day it was created. it could go even further back than that. here we are seeing gains of even more than 4%. these are things that we have of seen since the likes 2011. since these funds were created.

in the riskiest areas of the market, people are willing to get in. how much are you hearing this from other places in the market? shotty was not the only out today saying it is time to buy the dip. you have other people flagging saying it takes a while to put in a bottom. i would not call that we are out of the woods yet. veryave those that are now bullish saying by this dip, the worst is behind us. then you have others saying no this might be a psych out, we need to make sure we are out of the woods for good. >> go back to what jay powell had to say. he hinted about a pause or putting the balance sheet back in play. some are reading this as pal capitulating to trump. joe: it seems more powell is

capitulating to the data or him changing his mind again. google has had a hard time getting a handle on powell. of all of the bullish news today, is the fed kind of the one that people are talking about the most? >> i would say absolutely. you think about the job data and there were some investors and traders this morning saying you have this great data so the economy is on a firm footing, but what does that mean for the fed? couldct that powell navigate through these interviews and walk the fine line shows he can talk about the economy being great, but at the same time not making it seem like they are full steam ahead with rate hikes. that really was the thing that allowed the markets to push higher throughout the day. scarlet: good news was interpreted as good news for the markets today. caroline: that's what surprised me -- >> that's what surprised me. everybody is worried about a potential fed hike. >> this morning, people were

saying this could be bad, but we got the other way around. caroline: now we have it. what a seller runoff. the first day since december the 25th. the nasdaq on my eye, up four percentage points. not one single decline are on the dow jones. scarlet: we are ending the week with conviction. the same level of conviction as we did yesterday, but in the opposite direction. there really weren't any live or's the s&p 500 industry groups. some didn't do as well, notably the defensive groups, but every industry group was in the green. you have a sharp gain for u.s. stocks, but only the biggest since december 26. caroline: in nasdaq, the volumes were up 7% compared to the last 20 days, but we have lower volumes for the dow jones. joe: the other thing that struck me is on december 26, a lot of people said bear market rally.

this is the kind of action you get in a bear market. i didn't see that as much today because it is more fundamentals-based rather than a mechanical snapback. caroline: we still got breaking news throughout the day, and we have to navigate. apollo is considering a bid for jet leasing unit. scarlet: it looks like ge shares are getting a pop in after-hours trading. there's not a lot of volume in after-hours trade on friday, but it is read as a positive here. caroline: this is what many people felt. for 20, and the day might be driven by private equity. apollo coming into the market. joe: we are looking at a down

massively. quite a bounce. caroline: and next week we have an investment meeting when it comes to ge. scarlet: that would be interesting to see. i would guess ge is one of the best performers of the new year. in fact, i will look for another index. caroline: luke, what are you watching? i'm looking at where perceptions change and didn't. do joe's point, it had to do a little more with firming fundamentals and the stock market. they realize maybe the u.s. economy is not as bad as yesterday. however, the bond market upward shift you see into 10 relies almost what you see -- allies -- belies almost what you see. curved funds future versus yesterday, there is only

one difference. essentially, traders are thinking and betting on the possibility we might sneak in some midyear hike from the fed. beyond that it is easing as far as the eye can see. it's a matter of magnitude. abigail? abigail: let's take a look at some of these with saws we have been seeing recently through the eyes of the s&p 500 on a weekly basis. the sky was falling yesterday, today green shoots are everywhere. what we are looking at here is the s&p 500 in relation to its weekly moving averages. they are holding onto that 200 week moving average in yellow such as it did on the last bits correction in 2015 and 2016. that is the green shoots of the chart, that perhaps we are seeing the buyers step up similarly. if we go back to the dark days of 2007 and 2008, the s&p 500 held the 200 week moving average after one little correction, and the true selling action of 2018

came along and we of course had a big plunge. of the 200 day moving average it will -- moving average. it would be critical to see if it holds. we will watch this chart closely to see if the buyers can remain strong. the fourth quarter earning report is coming up. great for the s&p 500. taylor: i want to recap the jobs day this morning and look to the strong consumer. the consumer has been the big right spot. we have a lot of concerns about global growth. in particular, let's look at visa and mastercard. of credit card stocks surge because the consumer is willing to go out and spend and take on a little -- on additional debt. decembera very good holiday season so all of these stocks are getting a boost. i want to put this in perspective in terms of where we are. if you come into my terminal, you can see we have surpassed

the highs of where we were in terms of debt outstanding going back to 2008. credit card debt, that is in purple and slowly making gains. you have auto loans rising, and mortgage gaining as well. a healthy consumer willing to go out and increase some of the debt. they are feeling confident. scarlet? scarlet: taylor and the entire markets team, thank you so much. we want to reiterate the breaking news a few minutes ago. ge shares are rallying in the after-hours trading after bloomberg reported apollo is considering a bid for ge's jet leasing business. could be worth as much as $40 billion according to people familiar. apollo talking to bankers about lining up debt to buy all of it or part of this get leasing business. this is as ge reduces some of its assets and reduce cash and fund its own business to increase cash flow here.

we want to bring back mike regan a bloomberg markets lied to oversee -- to look at the overall market rally that we have had. joining us by phone as well is doug stadler, from riverfront investment group. aboutwe were just talking how the jobs report was seen as good news for the market. we haven't gotten many of those instances lately where good news was interpreted as good news. was this surprising to you? doug: yeah. it wasn't that surprising because there is a real disconnect between what wall street is thinking and what main street is thinking. things street, we see are fine. the u.s.-china tensions have not floated through jobs yet, wages are increasing, people are able to find jobs and be promoted to the next level of job. that is all really good. they also feel the stimulus that has come upon by rates dropping and by other things dropping coming through to the u.s. car sales and building permits.

it feels really good, but wall street is really worried. lots of times, wall street is the one that is right, but in this case, i have to side with main street. this is not a recession, just a typical slowdown of the bull market. we will get through this and markets will be higher. joe: financial markets are prone to overshoot in both directions, get too excited about modest improvement and too negative thinking about another financial crisis coming. that, main story today essentially, perhaps the tail risk downside of an imminent recession is taken off the table and by that jobs data? doug: i think that in the powell talk, when we have heard other speakers, which the fed is on the case, i think we have two puts behind this market. we have the trump put which means that the markets are weak you will see the president try to pull rabbits out of the hat so to speak, and you also have

the fed put which is back and play. the case,e are on watching things, we can go either way with raising rates or cutting rates. to an investor, that makes me feel good. a couple of months from now we will look back and say that was a real tempest that cause a lot of consternation, but didn't change the market much. caroline: mike, you have some big moves in terms of equity markets, but they are not as big as they were on december 26. we haven't seen these moves since october for the 10 year yield and since 2015 for the two-year yield. mike: there is a lot of cross asset hijinks going on for the lack of a better word. you get a flash rally after the apple -- joe: thank you for not calling it a flash crash. it's important for people to remember. scarlet: they are looking at the chart. mike: i like the argument about

this. i kind of agree with doug and that maybe main street is right at the moment. it's hard to look at the rally today -- to get to joe's point from earlier to say that is all clear signal, we rallied 3.5%. 3-4% rallies make people just as nervous as the drops. it speaks of and unsettled -- an unsettled sentiment. every friday comes out with the earnings table and we are down to 7.7%. it was over 11 at the market peak in september. i don't know if bullish sentiment will come back until those estimates stabilize. you think 7.7%, companies always beat these estimates so that is signaling double-digit earnings, but the further that comes down and the consistency with which it comes down, it is hard to

make too many conclusions until we see that stabilize. about whattalk to us you saw today in the market and the sustainability of it, basically. doug: was that to me? joe: yeah. is it sustainable? people talk about these huge moves day in and day out. massive loss yesterday, massive gains today, when are we going to get to something a little more sustainable in one direction or the other? doug: i think we will know it when it comes, but what is clear is that there is this tug of war between experts in the crowd. that tug-of-war will get resolved at some point. we have been trading in a concision box roughly around 2500 on the bottom. and 2800 on the top on the s&p. breakout in either direction

will be the signal that things are getting better and we are moving outside of the range. last guest's comments, and i agree with what he says, we did have no earnings growth this year. we are still pricing around the 15-16 pe which is a 666 earnings deal. if you got paid everything out in dividend. last year this time we were about 460. it's a significantly better time to be buying stocks than a year ago. you either get good news or you get good prices with stocks. we are in an environment for the prices are good in the news maybe is not as good. scarlet: i like the way you put that. doug sandler joining us from riverfront investment group and mike regan of mliv go. that does it for "what'd you mes?" -- that does it for

and the closing bell. romaine bostick will be stepping in for me. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. joe: i'm joe weisenthal, romaine bostick is off today. caroline: we were higher across the board for the stock market today. up more than three percentage points on every major index. 4% on the nasdaq. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" caroline: it pays to listen to the markets. -- theowell says market

fed will stay sensitive to market sentiment. president trump considers declaring a national emergency to make congress build a wall on the u.s.-mexico border. u.s. delegations travel to beijing next week, the first face-to-face negotiation since trump and xi met in argentina. fed -- the fedn chair drum powell. he spoke on a panel among previous chairs, doubling down on his prepared ness. >> if we came to the view that the balance sheet normalization or any other aspect of normalization was a problem, we wouldn't hesitate to make a change. joe: for more, let's welcome tim dewey, a professor and senior

director. also joining us is luke kawa. tim, after the december rate press conference, you went out and suggested there is meeting, thatthat decision will go down as a policy mistake. i'm curious if you think -- but you also said it was a fix ago mistake -- fixable mistake. foul with a long way in fixing a mistake. tim: yes, i do. we don't know it december was a mistake. the underlying economy was good but powell gave the reason to believe that the fed would in pauseo into an extended if they saw conditions required such a move. extended pause but not any rate cuts. the market is still pricing the

thin at the moment. should we have had this much of a rally to the comments from powell? helped think it also there were extenuating circumstances on the day, china giving us a boost, payroll giving us a boost ahead of time, but if maybe the market keyed in more on the idea that the balance sheet is a flexible tool , i think tim said in the past he was worried about that the .ed mike -- might hike i think today, powell made it clear with the june 27 principles that we will only normalization if we need to cut rates. he will said that she said we will stop it if there are generic market problems. your view ont is what he said about the balance sheet? do consider that a major departure from past comments? tim: i think it's consistent in some ways.

he gives less willingness to depart from a decline that they have been having as of late, and it certainly seemed like that in the december press conference. say ifly did open up and things change, we will change with them, they are not on autopilot. i think that had a combing the fact on the market. caroline: how much do you care also about the labor data that came out? in some way, that is a push against what the fed was saying. the said they listened to the market, but the data is saying the fed has it right here. is going to drive the decisions of the next six months. ofwe are near the range neutral, the fed would be in a position to pause or slow down the pace of rate hikes. sense, the december

was a past number and we care about what is going on in the future. you can really say this is great, we don't have to worry about tight risk, but it doesn't mean the fed doesn't have to worry about what might be the impacts of the pass rate hikes over the last six months. joe: why do expectations of fed hiking go up when the fed it sounds dovish and goes down when the fed is hawkish? luke: i think it has to do with classea that it is about and points. when they sound more dovish, there's an impression they will be able to hike because the market won't be pricing in an aggressive hiking path that has an effect on a financial conditions. you see the dollar strength in the wash back, but that is only theoretical. it is kind of odd and nice. i wonder how much the move is more linked to go data we got rather than soothing words from powell. caroline: a great perspective to

ended on. thank you to luke, and professor duy from the university of oregon. coming up, why citibank is telling investors to buy and trouble for sessions here -- shrug off recessions here. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: it's time for a look at what is trending across the bloomberg universe. terminal users are reading that ubs is set to be early -- in early talks. ubs has been intensifying planning and is set to favor an outside candidate.

bloomberg.com has a story on the --ks luxury cruises of 2019 best luxury cruises of 2019. people are headed on increasingly remote voyages like antarctica and greenland. tictoc has good news if you look for a place to live in manhattan. the median selling price on the island has dropped below $1 million for the first time in three years. it's largely the result of shoppers having options and more negotiating power. you can follow all of the stories on your terminal, bloomberg.com, and on tictoc on twitter. joe? joe: citibank is telling pe investors to quote why the dip? globe are the expected to grow an average of 4%. they say all the recession fears are overblown. let's bring in lee droge and -- leigh drogan.

this has been the big question, earnings. people say stocks are cheap if earningselieve where are expected to go, but have analysts and investors taking down their earnings forecast for 2019 and beyond enough? based on the data you see and your own sense, how realistic are people right now about the earnings? leigh: i watched a little bit of financial tv today. just to see with the sentiment was out there. i hear a lot of people saying wait for earnings. i don't know if you want to be waiting for this earnings season. numbers are coming down early. where we see our consensus will lead the wall street consensus and future revision because it is more of a dynamic updating system. we are down to about 5% year-over-year growth now. caroline: in the u.s.? leigh: yes. that will continue to come down. i wouldn't be surprised if we

ended around 2, 3, maybe -- you apple.t happened to you'll get more down revisions. we also see the guidance numbers coming out and revisions to normally they are about -3% on the spread. the are at negative one now and will get worse. personally, we don't make calls on the stock market or anything, but personally, trading under a -200 day moving average. this will be a rough season. you will have a wide dispersion of outcomes. there are industry groups we like, but it's hard to get bullish on things when there are so kind of -- so many macro data points moving fundamentally. caroline: let's talk sectors. we're going to get an insight in the banking sector, netflix, and tech sector. where you see the biggest support and cuts? leigh: the biggest support is enterprise software.

it makes sense we go through a huge super cycle there. the pickups and economic data, if you believe there are hiccups -- the hiccups in the economic data, if you believe they -- the hiccups in the economic data, if you believe they are pickups, art affect names like altericks, workday, all of these names hold really well. those are the names when you come out of a bear market or whatever you want to call this, those names leading at that point and seeing those provisions will be the new leaders after that. they are high beta names. if we get another high beta melt, you wouldn't want to be long on that. joe: going back to whether stocks are cheap right now, let's say we continue to get further down with revisions, big picture. are investors not getting compensated for that. right now, is that not enough? leigh: i think there is still fear from 08 in the sense that

we are suffering from the ptsd of, it can fall apart really quickly and more than it should. joe: the fear from 08, and usually 08 does not happen. leigh: no. joe: that would theoretically be bullish, right? leigh: are we going to be down 50% on eps like we were year-over-year? obviously not. it will not happen. [knocks on wood] could we see multiples can press with fed issues and balance sheet and fed balance sheet and all of these things? we can definitely see multiples compressed further, and when i see these charts and people posting "where is the eps multiple for the s&p 500" "oh it's getting really cheap." there are two components to that. earnings are coming down. i would not be surprised if we had an earnings recession in 2019. caroline: what a place to leave it. leigh drogen, it's great to get your perspective.

coming up, back to the negotiating table in washington and beijing. this is bloomberg. ♪ ng. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. trump considered using executive authority to get a wall built on the southern border. the revelation came during a news conference following a white house meeting with nancy pelosi and the congressional democratic leadership. >> if i have, and i can do it if i want. >> so you don't need congressional approval to build the wall? >> we can call it a national emergency because of the security of our country, absolutely. i may do it. we can call a national emergency and build it very quickly, and it's another way of doing it. we can do it through a negotiated process, we are

giving that a shot. mark: the president also confirmed he told chuck schumer today that the shutdown could last a month or even years. speaker pelosi said she told the president democrats won't consider his demand for money to pay for a border wall until the u.s. government is reopened. the speaker and congressional democratic leadership addressed the border following a to house -- two our meeting that policy described as lengthy and contentious. >> we recognize that we can't resolve this until we open up the government on the democratic side. we made that clear. services are being withheld from the american people. our border security will suffer we don't resolve the issue. mark: the government has been partially shut down for 14 days since the president refused to

sign spending legislation that didn't include five point $6 billion to continue construction of a wall on the u.s. border with mexico, his top campaign promise. hasderal appeals court handed the president his first victory in an effort to ban transgendered americans for serving in the military. for the d.c.el circuit ruled today the plan accommodates some transgendered service members and, therefore, is not as restrictive as the blanket ban proposed by the president. the ban cannot be implemented because injunctions from. other areas -- from other areas remain in place. turkey is slamming mike pompeo for remarks about american troops pulling out of syria. secretary pompeo told newsmax is important "the turks don't slaughter the kurds." militantsreference to

in syria considered to be terrorists. those militants were fighting alongside the u.s.. turkey called the remarks worrisome. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. joe: whatever it takes. president trump said he was willing to declare a national emergency to get his border wall during a press conference earlier today. presidentmer said the has threatened to keep the months or shut four years if you didn't -- for months or years if he didn't meet the demand. sahil thank you for joining us. could this be a thing? >> probably not.

if they don't come to a deal legally, nothing will happen in terms of them reopening so this could be weeks or months. technically, it's could be a year, but that is unlikely. there will be lots of pressures that come to bear with government workers stop getting their paychecks. right now,y on hold but as the weeks go by, people will not get their tax filings, military families will not get survivor benefits, so there's an enormous amount of pressure on this. did hear some olive branches coming from president trump in a way saying it was a bear productive meeting and he would like it to be a few days. how realistic you think that a deal could be struck over the course of the weekend? unlikely over the weekend. there doesn't seem to be progress at all in the negotiations. it's a binary thing. president trump will not reopen the government without $5 billion for the wall. democrats say he will not get a dollar for the wall.

leader pelosi said she would give him one dollar, but nothing more than that. i don't see movement between the two sides -- too sides. not only do they oppose the wall, but there is a mentality they can hold and they feel like toy are being taken hostage a policy demand the president cannot get through the regular legislative process. democrats say they are not demanding concessions, they say just reopen the government and keep things how they are in debate it in the legislative process. joe: trump claims he could build a wall with an emergency order citing national security. do people agree with this? do people agree with his interpretation of this? sahil: this seems to be the first we have heard of this possibility, joe. he was asked at a press conference, this afternoon and the president said he was considering it. the clarionould

national emergency and do military construction as a result of that. this is already getting pushback, as you can imagine, particularly from democrats think this is a misuse of power. some democrats think it would be legally dubious to construct a border wall under this provision. other democrats a of the president -- this president can declare a national emergency and build aboard a raw, good future democratic presidents declare a andonal health emergency declare health care for all. he could be opening a can of worms. ahil, as we sit here in new york, we don't feel the repercussions yet, but are they yet being filled -- felt in washington and repercussions across industries and companies? sahil: they absolutely are. about 800,000 workers are not being paid for the duration of the shutdown. about half are not working, and the other have to work there essential personnel, but they're

not getting paychecks for the duration of the shutdown. there are disgruntled tsa agents. there are people doing the work that president trump and his allies consider essential to defend the border that are not getting paychecks. the longer this drags on, the more the consequences are felt. and the more the pressure will ramp up to do something about it. this idea is not sustainable. months or years does not add up. the longer shutdown has been under a month. caroline: a great perspective there from sahil kapur. thank you. sticking with washington news, the u.s. and china are heading back to the negotiating table for another round of talks next week. officials have shared a set of worries about shaky markets and slowdown.economic for more, let's bring in our trade reporter.

the talks started china next week. how much could we see some form of the deal done here? >> the first thing is, don't raise expectations to delhi for this. this is a fairly low-level delegation. but, that is a good sign. this is what we have been waiting for. this is looking like a real trade negotiation. you have technical officials sitting down across from each other, working through the issues and where they can get some serious agreement and that clears the way for higher-level ministerial talks and possibly the two presidents can sit down at some point and do a bigger handshake. this is not -- this is two days of talks in beijing. it's being led by the deputy trade legislation. he's not a cabinet official in this administration. he doesn't have the authority to sign a grand bargain with beijing. was earlier, larry kudlow on bloomberg tv and a asked him

what would constitute success for the talks. the answer is vague. as you put it, they are lower-level talks. in your view, after these talks wrap up, are you expecting -- what with success look like to you? shawn: it goes back to the first thing we were looking for after the two leaders set down and when a saris and had december 1 dinner. where do we go next? that will be the same thing next week. we hear the goal is to clear away for a higher-level discussion, possibly the senior chinese economic official coming here to washington for talks sometime later this month. we don't have a date set for that yet, so if you hear positive news, positive noises, signs of some progress coming out the beijing, signs there is going to be further talks, there be further talks, that is good news.

a lot of that will depend on what happens in the markets, what are the pressures on both sides, and there is a long road ahead. on holdriffs are not until march 1. it might come down to how much pressure you see on both sides. caroline: how does the balance of power look to you at the moment? we have heard apple coming out and saying they are hit by china and trump saying today he doesn't worry about apple does their up hundreds of percents since he took control. there are strains on both sides coming to manufacturing data. how much do you think the u.s. in particular is licking -- listening to this? shawn: if you look at 2018, that's the year that gave us the trade war, but on the u.s. side, none of the impact was apparent. trade between the two countries was up last year the coast were trying to get in ahead of tariffs. it's hard to have seen the

direct impacts. a few companies like gm report and impact from steel tariffs, but the heart impact, the pain from the trade war has not been felt in the u.s.. it is starting to show up in the numbers. apple was not complaining about tariffs, it was complaining about the slowdown of chinese economy. ,t is a lot more complicated economic picture, and that is what we are starting to learn. this is all really complicated. i think the administration is starting to figure out how complicated it is, and we will see more realization of the realities of trade wars and how difficult they are to win. caroline: it's going to be march the first before we know it. shawn donnan, thank you. powell gives the markets what it once -- will powell give the markets what it owwants?

this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: a quick check of the business flash headlines. shares of ge are climbing in after-hours trading follow a bid to buy all of general electric's jet leasing business. meanwhile, hackers have published cell phone numbers and of members ofta nearly every german political party. this breach also affected angela merkel herself. is the biggest data dump of its kind. there's no evidence pointing to russia. that is your business flash update. joe? joe: powell taking cues from the market.

he stressed the central bank will listen to messages the markets are sending after shaking investor confidence last month. michael mckee asked the top economic adviser under president obama when he made of german powell's remarks earlier today? >> i think he accomplished what he needed to accomplish. i'm not sure why people felt they needed to hear him state the obvious, which is that the fed is aware of what is going on in markets. bed low-inflation gives them more flexibility and they are not on a preset course. that was just as true yesterday as it is today, what i'm glad people have heard it clearly. >> he also made the point markets get ahead of the data. do you think it's

the economic realities, i think the economic reality is a little bit better than the way it looks on the surface.

>> coming up, no retail therapy here. in fact, we're closing the door for one of its manhattan locations. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> u.s. stocks rallied today. but take a look at the recap of the extraordinary day. it is funny i say extraordinary, because we have had a lot of wild days lately. sort ofeally the trifecta of good news today for balls. china, of the rate in the blowout jobs report and the tone fromy, dovish chairman powell producing a monster rally. at the percent gain on the s&p 500. tone from chairmanthe nasdaq, those high a .tocks, people are piling onto

>> total reverse of yesterday. much loved. here. therapy is not in another blow to the luxury industry, they're closing down the secondary women's location. the store had opened two years ago. for more, let's welcome our luxury reporter. what is going on here? two years is quite a long time for a test and a short time to have long-term talks. >> when it opened in, it was really an exciting hotspot for shopping. it was right across from the ofld trade center and saks the flagship there. the men's store they have open in the mall is going to stay, but the women's store shuts tomorrow. get there in a hurry. joe: why didn't it work out better? >> not enough traffic.

it was an underperforming store. they considered it a test. caroline: is also growing competition about manhattan rights. bloomingdale's is going to come under pressure, potentially macy's, because you have new players coming to the wings. >> it's going to be quite the department store battlefield here. these two new giant stores are about to open. --have a nordstrom flagstick flagship opening and a neiman's flagship opening. retailers have been here for a century or more. ,ou have macy's, bloomingdale's barney's, so on and so on. this is a prefetch rated market, but it seems other retails want to coleman that's come in. .oe: big picture -- come in >

joe: manhattan retail apocalypse has been a big story for a long time. .s that kind of overblown >> i feel like it is a bit overblown. a bunch of new retailers opening up and the hudson yards i will open up a ton of new retail space for that portion. caroline: what about those outside of new york? >> there's nothing around there really for shopping. it's an area for underserved. caroline: let's talk about where else is under pressure. this week, all eyes have been on luxury retailers because of china. we saw a lot of them get a kicking on back of what apple has said about the country. >> the concern about chinese luxury started late last summer. lvmh said there was a border crackdown happening. chinese tourists traveling abroad coming home were getting

their bags searched more than normal and getting reprimanded for getting things past customs. ever since then, more things have popped up that have complicated things. now, with the apple announcements, we have reason to doubt the chinese consumer is willing to spend on luxury as they were before, not just the tourists traveling. a lot of luxury brands are going directly to china to open stores there because they are banking buying on their home turf, not just abroad. joe: we have earnings season here before we know it, what are you most interested in seeing? wethe next couple weeks, will find out all of the holiday sales numbers. it is such a crucial season in retail, let's see how they do. caroline: kim, great to get your perspective. that is all for "what'd you miss?" for this week. "bloomberg technology" is up next. joe: have a great weekend. this is bloomberg.

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emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up in the next hour, tech gets off to a rough start in 2019. does disappointing news from apple and other signal trouble for the rest? the u.s. and china had into trade talks next week with a shared set of worries. the markets and a macroeconomic slowdown, will that strengthen desire to cut a deal? netflix is dominating new media.