tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg January 8, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
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have an earnings recession to read if earnings come in at 7% and one of the two market is wrong, the stock market or bond market, we think valuations have fallen sufficiently. caroline: the bond market is selling off, but we're up. scarlet: we have most of the industry groups higher. into the close, the only laggards where the chipmakers and banks. the 24 groupshin and s&p 500 are in the green. transportation up 2.5%. caroline: we haven't seen this long of buying for three whole days of it since the end of november. we have some sustained risk appetite. scarlet: momentum. joe: momentum and there are interesting stocks leading the way. they spoke has slowly become less hated than it was.
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saying positive comments about engagement not falling off causes them to be up. scarlet: mark zuckerberg addressing the big issues which means he will hold regular public discussions at the future of society. caroline: time to get that resolution on his you your book. meanwhile, let's jump into the market action with the market reporters. abigail: i was rushing -- watching the russell 2000. it's up seven point 2% over the last three days. the best three days since the election in november of 2016. nothing fundamental has changed telling us it is about sentiment or risk on sentiment. investigators having a renewed risk appetite. everyou see frenzy buying panic selling, perhaps it may suggest volatility ahead.
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the russell 2000, this is a one-year chart. this means oversold. we see that during this bear market during the last quarter. the russell 2000 was below that, but we also see the russell 2000 has not made it above the roughly 55 level on its rsi. it's pretty much contained. maybe we have downside ahead for the russell 2000, but today, the best readings since november 2016. romaine: in about 15 minutes, the cio at double on capital is giving his webcast. this is where he makes the big calls for when he sees what is going to happen for the year. last year, he turned out to be pretty right on a lot of issues.
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the euro stoxx 50, he called that a value drop -- strap. he was right on his calls about the two-year treasuries and corporate credit. he missed out on a few things, including his call on the dollar. he called for short-term rally in the dollar that he said would reverse later. the big move actually was not a rally, it was a huge decline immediately after he made that call. by the time we got to april, the dollar went on a phenomenal rally. from mid april through the end of the year. as of today, the dollar is when hehan the level gave his webcast in january 2018. he called commodities a screening by, which did not pan out. someone with his stature, everyone will be watching to see what he says for 2019. scarlet: we have breaking headlines. fed,ine: coming from the
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they say they can't comment on stress test results. the stress test results are required by legislation and they say they are eliminating adverse scenarios from stress tests. if you don't have acids of over $250 billion, you'll need to worry about the stress test it all. the world bank also making forecasts, cutting on global economic downside risk. the world bank has left its u.s. ,conomic growth unchanged everyone else got a reduction. the 2019 global outlook cut to 2.9% from 3%. the e.m. forecast reduced to 4.2 from 4.7%. joe: bets are got to me as well. the lack of cut for the u.s. u.s. exceptionalism once again. caroline: it reflects the data
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just today because the u.s. is seeming resilient, but for european, it was ugly. scarlet: very ugly. still was us is sandip bhagat. the u.s. -- the world bank has left u.s. growth unchanged and reduced everyone else's. how long can the u.s. stan touched from the slowdown we see elsewhere -- stay untouched from the slowdown we see elsewhere? sarah: it begs the question -- sandip: it begs the question, how soon until the weakness build over? we are largely a closed economy, heavily dependent on domestic consumption. what do we see on this front? a tight labor market. we added more than 300,000 jobs in december. wages are going up, and in the sweet spot, we are at 3.2% wage growth. this is below the levels that we see with inflation. are rising, inflation's
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are contained, and consumer spending in november was almost 5% annualized. much has been said about the manufacturing, purchasing managers index. to services pmi fell from 60 57, which keep in mind this composite pmi is still above 55. it is far from contracture. this tells us it confirms the anticipation of the slowdown. hardly anything to be concerned about. joe: you paint a goldilocks scenario for the u.s. with ongoing growth, tame inflation, and improving labor market picture. what about outside of the u.s.? this, thepside of world bank forecast is cutting growth estimates for the rest of the world may be catching up to what the market has already noticed. are there parts of the rest of the world that look compelling from an investment standpoint? sandip: we have to talk about
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china. china is central to the global -- global growth outlook. it's in a secular decline, and we know it is in the midst of some deceleration. apple's revenue guidance points to that. arer unofficial pmi numbers 50. the world needs a gradual, soft lending in china. areof these data points sending an important signal to central bankers and politicians. pause and, it is to possibly revert. to the government, it is to come together and resolve these trade differences. warhink the global trade not see its way to the ultimate, most dire outcome. it will not inflict the most severe damage. with some ofhope the economies outside of the u.s., beginning with china. caroline: so potentially china one to invest in.
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therefore, do we stick with tech in the u.s.? that particular area is being beatthat particular area is beig beat out from concerns in china. where else to go in the united states? sandip: if you buy into the scenario of how close you should utilities,h care and resubscribe to the view that the recession in 2019 will not unfold, we will see modest growth in the economy and on the earnings front. this will be conducive to hire stock market, perhaps an extension of the multiple. that pushes us toward more cyclical sectors. we find value in technology, energy, industrials, and not surprisingly, these are all your cyclical sectors. they do stay with the macro thesis we have. scarlet: and it all comes down to where you see the world, more optimistic or more pessimistic. mention government shutdown and what that means for lack of timely data that
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investors do rely on here, especially with the fed data dependent. is that going to be something that could dent the confidence of investors in what we're looking at right now, a risk driven rally? sandip: history has told us government shutdowns are not an economic event. the lack of data, those will all be minor inconveniences. the event runs and -- assumed unusual proportions because it happened just before christmas. we went into the partial shutdown on the 22nd of december. the fomc announcement had raised a lot of question. james mattis retired -- resigned that week. a created this arab confusion and chaos and, therefore, took on greater importance than it normally would have commanded. i'm trying to put this into the anegory of not quite alarming event, but the more trivial impact. scarlet: sandip bhagat thank you
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the world bank maintaining its forecast of economic growth in the u.s., but cutting its outlook for the rest of the world. invoke a trump could national emergency to get funding for a border wall. could this resolve the shutdown or antagonize democrats further? tech troubles claiming another victim. we are getting more investment ly --softbank been originalk originally planned. let's talk world growth. world bank keeping its u.s. growth forecast at 2.5%, but cutting it for the rest of the world. big warning signs from europe today. the economic confidence just a 12 months in december. let's welcome our economic editor from "bloomberg --inessweek." ets
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"bloomberg businessweek." >> germany is where we might be having a recession. they had a down third quarter, and with these bad industrial production numbers for november, that continued through into december and a down fourth quarter, which by some measures is considered recession. joe: if your business model of your country is selling stuff to your neighbors and the rest of the world, it is kind of unavoidable. peter: i agree with that. germany has a big account surplus. that is how it sustains this economy. it's vulnerable for that reason. the fact that both trading partners would slow down fory list, and reasons
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politics. the only country donald trump dislikes more than china right now is germany. germany is a big exporter of cars. trump has repeatedly talked about the possibilities of tariffs on imported automobiles. romaine: are we overplaying this a little bit? governing council in europe saying don't worry too much about this, that when you balance out the data with consumer spending data, everything is, if not fine, within their models. peter: i'm somewhere in between. too sanguine to say nothing was the problem, but i also think there will be a bounce back in 2019. growth will be positive. bloomberg economists surveyed for one .6%tlook growth in 2019. that's decent considering german
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and -- germany's slow population growth. joe: the world bank's cut their growth forecast for everyone in the world besides the u.s.. are we at the point where we see a policy response whether it is in europe on the monetary or fiscal side, more aggressive [ over talk]. are we kind of at that point where we start to see reflationary policies? peter: let's talk about the ecb. the latest thing mario draghi said is that there would be no interest-rate increases through the summer at least. that cause people to immediately pencil in an increase in the fall. it could be people will be rethinking things, the same way people are marking down the fed won't increase as much as expected in 2019.
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romaine: to joe's point, does the ecb have any policy tools at this stage? they were supposed to be going into what everyone thought was eventually going to be a tightening cycle. but saying we will not tighten, is that a tool? peter: it is refraining from using the tool, that is in effect monetary policy. romaine: is it effective monetary policy, or can it be? peter: it's not like europe is in a recession. you don't want to necessarily be easing or cutting -- concert of easing is coming to an end. this is the dramatic shift, the change we will see. to do they could choose more quantitative easing, so there are tools in the ecb's toolbox. caroline: and valuation is pretty horrible in europe. today, even though we got the
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woeful data, we saw germany's stock index rise by tenths of a percent. gets back to the point you are making with the world bank. looking around, americans tend to be a little glum over the decline of the stock market since october. the u.s. looks good compared to most of the rest of the world these days. .aroline: peter coy, thanks up, 2019 may have just begun, but another huge pharma deal is reshaping the drug industry. with one ofnterview the ceos, next.
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stories are training on the bloomberg universe. are reading about deutsche bank's management board and the plan to cut the bonus by 10%. lender struggle cost pressures and trying to retain key employees. bonuses for last year will be paid more collectively in an attempt to keep the top earners. has a story on plans to facilitate connections with banks. the app allows users to log into their checking account or pay would been low by checking username and password credentials and let the username match those of the financial institution. last year, there was a bidding war among square and others. tictoc on twitter is reporting on a therapist who is suing showtime saying a character in the show was an unauthorized ripoff of herself. she is a performance coach for trainers and looking at damages for copyright infringement show borrowed heavily
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from a 2012 book without compensating her. romaine? romaine: thanks, caroline. the rapidly changing pharma landscape has reached another milestone. takeda completed its acquisition of shire. witheo spoke exclusively bloomberg. >> it's all about preparation. we are to the point where we are well advanced with integration. we have already nominated the top 20 leader of the company. the organization has designed his strategies clear. on thursday, two days after the closing day, we have our first conference with the top 200 leaders. we are very well advance. >> increasing the debt load to have a ratio of
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about two times. you had a downgrade from moody's , down to triple b plus. what is your strategy about getting net debt level back to an area you are comfortable with? christophe: our commitment is to be investment-grade. we are solid investment-grade. deliver rapidly, and we will do that by cash flow generated by the company. a company with a very high margin at a starting point of 37 . we will also do expose all to accelerated the deliberating. is to be back up within two to three years. taylor: talk to me about some of the disposals and divestitures you plan on making to get back to your core assets in focus. christophe: 75% of our total business, core assets, with 25%
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of our business which is not -- non-core. we have already started the process this week of disposing. we want to dispose for a total value of around 10 billion. taylor: who are the buyers? you may not be able to name specific names. be cyclicalit could companies, private equities, all types of buyers. some acids are global, some are more original. it depends. taylor: talk to me about competition. we have seen a lot of m&a this year. how much more pressure do you feel as some of the competition heats up around you? christophe: i think the key is to innovate and to be able to deliver medicine through our r&d.
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--the therapy are with therapy areas we have selected, we've selected four areas, we see we are highly competitive. we have the know-how, we have the knowledge, we have the best team. that is our strategy. taylor: talk to be abouttaylor: -- taylor: talk to me about new pipeline of drugs. what are the drugs you are looking at that could be a hit? christophe: we have now 21 assets in phase two in phase three. -- and phase three. many of these assets have a potential to be highly lucrative. -- highly innovative. we are also expecting vaccine this year. taylor: as we think about your business, and you came in, he talked about three key areas of growth.
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you now have four, the b plus one or two others, as you feel in terms of being right sized or too bloated as you look at your key areas of focus? that youe: we think don't want to be too narrow on one area for a large company like us. we are focusing on four types of disease. european vaccines are slightly different types of research. four therapy areas of a company we areillion revenue, around 3.5 4 billion per year. we can be very competitive. caroline: that was our competitive with the ceo of takeda pharmaceutical. the company has agreed to save 425 stores with alternative.
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verizon is reassuring investors its growth remains strong. it had 1.2 million customers in the first quarter. it's the first quarter for a while that verizon has posted gains. it was a record-breaking year for boeing. 860 sevenered commercial aircrafts in 2018, the most ever. they edged out there european rival by the smallest margins. they also revealed a last-minute fury -- flurry. they padded its backlog. pg&e bonds hit an all-time low in trading. as in the downgraded them after it was said to be considering -- pg&e faces potential liabilities from the california wildfires and last of years. they may use a bankruptcy to get a bailout. that is your business flash update.
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>> hello everybody. let's get to first word news right now. conservativemp's allies are urging him to declare a national emergency to build his border wall. although he is not expected to do so in his address to the nation this evening. the emerging strategy is seen by some of his allies as the president's best way to get his wall on the u.s.-mexican border. a key campaign promise he made during his campaign. did notof the remarks include such declaration, those sources tell bloomberg the president the change his mind and added at any time. the president will be speaking to the nation at 9:00 p.m. eastern time tonight.
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in other news, airports across the u.s. are growing worried about travel disruptions that the partial government shutdown continues. ateeners have called in sick larger numbers than since the shutdown began. more than 51 thousand tsa officers who screen bags and passengers at u.s. airports are considered essential to security, and have been ordered to continue working despite the shutdown. departing flights have resumed at europe's busiest airport after halted flights as a precaution, after reports of drone sightings. police are investigating. this comes weeks after a similar incident at another airport. u.k., theresa may's government also plans to hold a parliamentary vote on the brexit deal tuesday as may once european leaders to save her
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proposal with a last-minute offer to win over lawmakers. her offer to the eu should promise a target day for the relationship to come into effect that would keep the u.k. from being put into the eu's trading regime indefinitely. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am uma pemmaraju. this is bloomberg. thank you. we work is not working for softbank. the japanese company has decided against taking a controlling stock in real estate company. for more, let's bring in bloomberg news tech reporter. mark, talk us through this. they are given a big chunk of change in whole, but they are scaling back what was promised. >> yes. , softbank last year had been privately floating a
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deal that could inject $16 andion in two wework softbank is one of the -- into we work and softbank is one of the banks that could make an investment of that size, partially because of the vision designed to invest in tech companies, which has been greeting waves across a look and valley. spend aial goal was to chunk of that to take controlling stake in wework, but that is not panned out. at least a reporting one of the investors in the vision fund was not too stoked to do a deal of that size with upork, and so softbank ended having to do this much smaller investment off of soft bank, the company, rather than the vision fund.
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romaine: i thought that was an interesting aspect, that this didn't come out of the vision fund. what is the state admission of the softbank find? it seems to be all over the place? this whole wework issue seems to highlight that. mark: they are all over the place. how do you spend $100 billion? that theh noting biggest investor in the vision , which isi arabia plunged in a great deal of crisis for the us action nation fund hasuntry, that been tainted. although still active in tech deals. the ceo of softbank has talked -- aboutw ai and how ai and technology will reinvent businesses and industries around the world, and
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they want to have the financial power to drive parts of that change. he's very excited about this concept of code working. they have spent a lot of money on expansion in asia for we work .- for wework as we said the outside of this conversation, they will be all in on wework. they're still very much committed, but it is not the majority stake they had once suggested for the end of last year. joe: i want to talk about wework specifically as a company. they put out a blog post detailing the company's new mission. they are called the wecompany now. they will elevate the world's consciousness which means being a student of life, for life, to the extent that we are always going and a constant state of self-discovery, self growth, and
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change. we talk about this company is a real estate company, but it kind of sounds i can -- sounds like a self-help colts now. mark: they outlined three segments that they think are core to the we company. one of them is wework, which is the only business they have. not a profitable one, but it is business with a lot of revenue. they also have this very nascent unit called welive which is not co-working but: earning -- but co-living. it's like a college dorm type area where you act people into shared spaces and you have shared kitchens, living room, bars you can be up with so you have your own room that you sleep in at night. wegrow,ative called
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which is a concept to reinvent elementary schools. those other two are not really businesses, but i think the larger point of the wecompany is that they want to show they are bigger than just commercial real estate. romaine: they have $10 billion out of this, so thank you. sticking with tech, one of the big issues to end the government shutdown is that ipo's have come to a standstill. the normal process these companies go through to file, they can't do anything right now because the sec is on the skeleton crew. joe: there's something perfect about these companies trying to get through this ipo window while the market conditions are decent. history one-day being written of all of these companies that could not get through at the last minute, because the paperwork wasn't getting filed. caroline: uber put out a
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headline that they are sticking by wanting to go public despite the current volatility. [laughter] talking volatility and self-help you just mentioned. has a self-help focus coming from our zuckerberg. mark zuckerberg does these resolutions. usually they are about wearing a tie every day or killing everything he is going to eat in terms of meat, but now, he finally has gotten the memo that he needs to look at the juggernaut he has built and what it means in terms of the purpose of facebook. he's going after leaders and individuals to see what he can do to rectify. joe: he made a good point. he said in the past, he comes from an engineering standpoint. people dohe tools and whatever they want, but now he says he realizes that is not sufficient. romaine: it's easy to make fun of them, but with his past resolutions, he has followed
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through. even the one where he went out to see where food came from by killing his own meet. morgan freeman may still be the man voicing his ai. romaine: i didn't know that, thank you caroline. caroline: breaking news. we have the monthly, annual address over the web. the legendary investor is saying the government shutdown is a problem for markets. the government has been shaking off the government shutdown problem. maybe he feels it will be a focus. the u.s. chamber of commerce is saying they want an end to the shutdown. is heading shutdown toward ipo's and people. romaine: they also talk about this data that will be delayed, and once it comes out -- joe: that will be a fun day. caroline: could be exhausting. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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caroline: the partial government shutdown is approaching its record length. they 19 and none of the leaders look like they are giving in. pitching in ap is primetime address tonight. senator, give us your take. don't know exactly what will be said by president trump later today, but if he does declare a national security -- national emergency, what testament does the set? >> i hope the president doesn't do that. i understand any president can have frustrations with congress,
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but i would use this possibility as an opportunity to ron kind -- to remind my colleagues and the president that this is not an issue that can be resolved. typical negotiations are give and take and could get us out of the shutdown. if we can make decisions about border security, the amount of money spent, and how the money is spent, to me, the concern is that it sets a precedent that emergency declarations mean we , grantedmore authority to us by the constitution, us being the legislative branch, and shifting. this is not just a trump administration issue. this was my complaint in the obama days, but going back to the 30's where we see a shift away from article one, the legislative branch, to the executive branch. the american people elect representatives, so the complaint is also on congress. jobs, negotiate these
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agreements, and don't suggest to any president the way to get something done is to get around congress. we should matter and we need to make certain we do. romaine: that's a good point. the narrative coming out of washington, at least to outsiders like me, is that there seems to be an issue where congress either is not asserting itself on a lot of issues, or blocked or are being out on a lot of issues, particularly with monetary policy and criticisms. how do you think that should be addressed? the president has the ability to voice his issues, but it is ultimately congress with the chairman reports to. sen. moran: it is congress the chairman reports to. what i would suggest is that we do absolutely need, it is important to our system, markets, that we have an independent fed. the chairman of the federal reserve board does not serve a thecies of -- doesn't serve
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policies of an administration. he is independent in so many ways of all of us, but that is important so we don't make economic and monetary decisions based on the politics of the moment about the next election. onlys to be about not today, but the long-term future of the united states economy and jobs created on decisions made at the federal reserve. joe: do you the criticism we have seen from the president ,lready determined powell weighing in on policy decisions, do you think it is already having damage on the credibility of the federal reserve? sen. moran: i can't tell that that is happens, and i'm pleased with the response i've seen a chairman powell. i don't know the answer to whether he should or should not meet with the president. i don't have enough wisdom to know the answer to that question, but it is hits judgment call -- his judgment
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call. the reaction, generally by congress, has been supportive of the fed and its independence. i think chairman powell and the reserve board has acted appropriately to whatever the pressure is. historically, ever president has tried to influence the federal reserve. it's the nature of that job. but the question is, is that that the chairman has no ability to avoid consequences and pressure. that is certainly not the case here or with any chairman of the federal reserve board. caroline: a member of the --islative which can oversee is responsible in some way to the federal reserve, you think chairman powell is doing a good job thus far? sen. moran: i do. i will also have many disagreements with the federal chairman's. that is the nature of these
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jobs, but everything i've seen with chairman powell, the way he has conducted his chairmanship at the federal reserve, is something i find appropriate and notssary for the nature -- regulating the economy, but making sure the policies in place limits inflation and create jobs. joe: going back to the government shutdown, both sides seem to be incredibly dug in. the doesn't seem to be a the democrats in the house would vote for a bill of while funding. do you see any signs of a path toward ending the impasse? sen. moran: the consequences of the shutdown continue to grow. the news reports that i heard on your program suggests even at the sec there are consequences. i would say maybe we could go big -- bigger. deal with immigration for example. we need to put policy in this country -- good policy in this country.
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since i have been in the senate, immigration has been an intrusion into other issues. maybe we can get republicans and democrats, and the president, to agree on a bigger immigration solution. daca, tech, agricultural warfare. it's about give and take. put some give in to this on issues that matter to the country and matter to us as -- of the the administration. moran,e: censored jerry thank you. -- senator jerry moran, thank you. a presentation filed outlined the proposal to correct -- mix. ibm couldn't verify whether the documents were were real. a videogame producer is up more
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than 60% in this latest number. bg ig says activision may take a big step this year with a free to play option for its new call of duty title, blackouts four. oracle has taken a billion dollars stake in tesla. ceo, elon musk, had someone join the board to show there is oversight. romaine: more breaking news. the capitalist would keep an eye out sentiment survey. he said junk bond spreads are looking like a recession as well. where hed a caveat said this could be a false positive, but he said junk bond spreads have gone up to levels that sometimes indicate a recession. caroline: from new york, this is
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ahead.: not to asia after a rough 2018, founder securities it's up nearly 39%. stock analysts can't explain why. for more, let's bring in shery ahn. i think a look at the stock, and i have to admit, i've never heard of it, but it is the best performance stock. shery: we really don't know. there's a lot of speculation of what is happening with this particular stock. some say it is perhaps because of the announcement of an $8 million buyback at january 2. nothing as two major to explain this huge surge after four consecutive years of declines and a 23% decline in 2018. although it's mirth -- worth
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mentioning brokerage stocks are doing better. joe: we think of the market is pretty efficient as people understand what is priced in, but in the rest of the world, and i imagine in china and smaller markets, weird stuff seems more common. shery: that's the key concern in china, isn't it? the fact that beijing continues to say they will open up that financial markets more they give hope for investors, but at the same time, it is a lot to do with speculative removes. for example, in february, we had seen president xi jinping earn the title where he could extend his presidential term limits. , smallhat, we saw stocks stocks nobody has heard about, with the name emperor or king in their names surge. emperor technology, shanghai emperor of cleaning, high-tech. a lot of speculation out there in the chinese markets.
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shery: exactly. -- caroline: exactly. what about the demand of chinese companies to come to the u.s. and the list? -- it'ss always seemed always seemed a come here for the money? shery: we have seen the first and second generations of internet companies list in new york. one of the key reasons is not only maybe the reputation, but also because it's easier and more transparent. made -- allowed the registering of ipo's, but the process is much complicated -- very much complicated. it depends on political connections as well. a lot of people are calling for the listing rules to be reformed. joe: just looking at the broader markets, we have seen gains in the u.s.. part is attributed to people thinking there is
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optimism. our chinese stocks expected to move in the same way a get there is a deal or something. would people have a similar question or? shery: there's not much the but alsot shutdown ways of government shutdown. asia is not a cure get -- not a key concern. we did see the msci china index gaining ground. the different markets, local , they are all very different, but very much dependent on what happens to the trade talks. now that we of heard the vice per manner has attended -- premier has attended these lower-level talks, there's more optimism that there could be some sort of -- not resolution but more a substantial outcome out of these talks.
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caroline: great perspective. you want to catch more from her on "bloomberg daybreak: asia" at 6 p.m. eastern. we are tuning into an annual just markets webcast. wages are being celebrated for moving higher. he says we're not going to hike -- it's interesting in terms of the yellow lights that are flashing in terms of recession. on how manyerates people have gotten burned in europe because they are cheap. important when we get such ugly data. meanwhile, talking of europe, the u.k. parliament is debating on brexit. joe: and i will be watching the fed. their minutes coming out tomorrow.
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emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." hour, ibm taking center stage at the consumer electronics show. we will speak to the ceo about the company's next step in ai and quantum computing. plus, tech pain spreading as samsung shares apple's metairie -- misery. softbank is investing another $2 billion in we work, but l
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