>> will go to daybreak australia from bloomberg's global headquarters here in new york. shery: we're counting down to asia's major market open. haidi: the top stories we are covering, a new poll -- leading republicans say in government should reopen to discuss the deal. theresa may faces a critical week for brexit. her deal heads for defeat with labor ready to demand a vote for confidence. detroit is hit by water

shortages and auto industry apathy. several top manufacturers are stepping -- skipping this year's car show. shery: let's get a quick chilled -- quick check of the markets closed. markets did not manage to get into the green. s&p 500 finishing slightly down. really close to that crucial 2600 level. of course we had some concerns over the ongoing government shutdown, now in its fourth week. but also we had some positive sentiment among u.s. china trade talks going in the right direction. a variety of factors pulling markets in different directions. the dow finished at 23,995. we also have energy shares really lagging and bringing the markets down. wti finishing below the $52 a barrel. this, coming after its best week since june. see how we are setting up in asia. . sophie.

-- here is sophie. sophie: it was the best week for asian stocks since early november. we saw the regional market skin about $700 billion in value last week. potentially a mixed start for stocks in the region. some slight gains coming through for shares potentially at the start of cash trade. this is the start of a week that will see a barrage, particularly in europe and as the earnings season kicks up. among the big names to report this week, apple suppliers in the region amid slowing smartphone demand. apple reportedly plans to release three new iphones this year. of course to japanese markets are closed for the long weekend. we are keeping an eye on for chinese trade data which is due anytime this monday. expected to have slowed. from india we will be getting inflation details this afternoon and evening.

cpi likely to have moderated further rio -- below for his fifth straight month. haidi: a lot to get the week started with. a lot of china data. let's get you the first word news with paul allen in sydney. paul: reports from washington city trump administration asked for options on a military strike against iran. the wall street journal says the request caused concern at the pentagon and state department, although the assessment was carried out. relations between washington and tehran worsened after president trump's decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions. secretary of state mike pompeo has arrived in riyadh saying the isolation of qatar has gone on for too long. they should cooperate in a dispute which is harming mutual interests. saudi arabia, egypt and the uaa cut ties with qatar, accusing them of supporting terror

groups, something they deny. pompeo also said riyadh should take steps to end the war in yemen. has --ghosn his wife says he has been repeatedly interrogated with no lawyer. she says her husband has only limited opportunity to confer with his legal team and has lost seven kilograms of weight. early arrivals for the detroit auto show have started with a cold start. cut toervices were downtown estes city began to host its annual celebration of the car. authorities are warning against using water to drink, brush teeth, or prepare food without boiling first. several major automakers are also skipping it this year. spacex is to cut about 10% of its workforce. the vast majority of its

authorities are based in its headquarters in california, with others working in seattle, washington dc, florida, and texas. 577 jobs are to go in california, including managers and machinists and other staff. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. of course i have to take this chance to welcome haidi to new york. so, what a week to be here. is pretty cold but also at the same time we are seeing the fourth week of the government shutdown which is now affected 800,000 federal workers, including security agents at the airport. i was a little concerned you have some trouble. haidi: it was all fine. but it is a story about a lot of the tsa workers are calling in sick, a lot more compared to where we were sick callouts last year.

it is not an unexpected phenomenon you are seeing, as this continues to drag on. as we kick off the week here in the u.s. and also in asia on monday morning, there does not seem to be much anticipation of progress being made. no.y: it sounds like a cliche but seriously no end in sight right now. especially after federal agents missed their first paycheck on friday. haidi: it has now lasted a record 23 days. as we have been reporting for each of those days, there is no sign it will be coming to any sort of conclusion anytime soon. the republican senator lindsey graham posted a proposal for the president. >> i tried to see if we could open up the government for limited period of time to negotiate a deal, and the president says, let's make a deal, open up the government. nancy pelosi says even if he opened up the government, would not fund a wall. that is why i am depressed. shery: ross krasny joining us

now from washington. any chance of a temporary reopening like senator graham is recommending will make any headway? ros: we know that senator lindsey graham has the president's ear. he was the only lawmaker today to say he spoke with the president. he said he had spoken to trump earlier on monday morning. so it is possible what he is saying may gain traction at the white house. but he said himself that trump is not inclined to open up the government and go for a lighting round of immigration reform and possible wall funding. i think the jury is still out on that. unwaveringre pretty and study in a position to open the government first and then talk about immigration, talk about border security. warner,e and mark basically the virginia

delegation to the senate, today said that same thing. as you noted in one of your earlier segments, two polls out today show people blame president trump and republicans more for the shutdown the democrats. -- than the democrats. it remains to be seen. on friday president trump pushed off the possibility of declaring a national emergency. he said on television he certainly has the right to do that. a lot of the republican concern is if eight national emergency was called it opens up a can of worms for future administrations so that is something they do not want to do. going into the fourth week of the shutdown, basically still at an impasse. haidi: in the middle of all the politics we remain mired in. reports opened up a fresh

debate in the mueller probe. what were the claims and what has been the response? very interesting stories. the new york times story focused on the events immediately after trump's firing of james comey in 2017. that supposedly cause the fbi to start an investigation as to whether he might be unwittingly working on behalf of russia. that was kind of a blockbuster. the washington post story was about president trump basically keeping all the transcripts of calls and meetings he has had with russian president vladimir putin. trump pushed back on those last night in a tv appearance. but democrats at this point want some assurance that robert mueller's probe into the 2016 election will be allowed to go ahead, will be allowed to be completed, and that the results will be made public. this week, the confirmation

hearing, two days of confirmation hearings for bill bar in front of the senate judiciary committee. he is president trump's picked to run the justice department. in democratic lawmakers out in force today, they want to hear from him, they want to hear, "yes, i will let the probe go ahead." that is a crucial meeting this week. shery: thank you so much ros. as the shutdown stops, the flow of big economic reports that will fuel a fed rate hike news and china talks going to wait and see mode, the focus now turns to brexit in a crucial vote this week. haidi: kathleen hays is here with what to expect now. has anything changed recently? is what is tough for theresa may right now because her seems to be just as much opposition now as there was before.

one of the stories over the weekend is that the cabinet ministers seeking to the british mp's in parliament saying please, please vote for this deal. there are new stories about the members of parliament who were actually getting ready to take over the brexit deal now. i can understand why they would want to, but that is part of the story. and jeremy corbyn, the head of the opposition, is ready to call no-confidence. that would be to a general election. he does not have the support of his own party to do it yet, not enough. he would need support from other members of parliament as well. on top of all this, the guardian reports that the eu is actually expecting request from london to extend the march 29 deadline for union inl from the the next few weeks. tusk isdent donald expected to convene to push back

the deadline once this request is received, with the length of the lake to be determined cited by the reasons by theresa may until july to give mrs. may a chance to ratify the current deal. if the second referendum is called, eu sources say a longer extension may be on offer. i would say there is as much or more uncertainty than ever. another reason this will be important, government shutdown continues. the slow of u.s. data is stymied for now. anything we might be able to say how it affects the federal reserve is expected to be on hold for march, maybe until june. u.s. china trade war, progress made according to president commerce secretary from china pledging to make this a priority this year. but it is also now in a wait-and-see mode. so now we have this deal, this vote that everyone expects to be a failure on tuesday. theresa may will not get the deal past. ext now iss next -- n

more of a question than ever. haidi: this could affect the world and we are talking about growing concerns that trade partners will get hit, investors worldwide will get hit. kathleen: because all these other big events are sort of on the back or not to extent, this puts all the more attention to stories like this or that the financial review in london wrote about the threat to auddie wine makers -- aussie wine m akers, who are a huge part of the market. the command 1/5 of a $17 billion market. hub fours really the australian wine exports to europe. rather than put all the wine in bottles and then ship it overseas to the u.k. and then go through the european union, they should put in bulk and of a bottle at when it gets to the u.k.

there is all kinds of uncertainty now. we have heard about trucks that will line up and things will not get through. i think that is a very specific example of not even a country like ireland that will be left in limbo after this vote, in the impact not just on the u.k., for the rest of europe, but around the world, definitely for export-dependent countries, of which there are many in asia. wine loversuld see being left. kathleen: that would be a really bad fallout. [laughter] haidi: kathleen hays for us. n joins us tojaso examine the outlook for oil at a time of continuing weakness we see in chinese manufacturing. shery: next, chris low helps of navigate some of the bigger challenges investors face right now, including the record-setting u.s. shutdown. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: we're counting down to the start of trading in sydney. a gloomy day in the usually beautiful shot we have of the sydney opera house. futures indicating upwards of maybe half a percent at the open of cash trading despite a weak lead from wall street on friday. stocks really giving up gains. perhaps a bit of profit taking. having said that we saw all three major indices clocking three straight weeks of gains. the recovery rally very much continuing. we're live from new york. shery: the u.s. government shutdown continues. it is on day 23 right now. we are still at a standstill and no talks are scheduled for this week. haidi: let's look at the economic fallout as this continues. we were just talking about the

tsa workers and called out sick as a result of this ongoing, projected standoff. what other aspects do you start seeing feeding through to the macro? chris: already we have had half a dozen economic reports postponed. we have another half-dozen coming this week that are likely to be postponed. and we are lucky we do still get the latest statistic numbers. cpi on friday, ppi on monday. but we are not getting most of what feeds into gdp. and it is important, i think particularly, because the market seven flashing recession signals. shery: i actually want to bring up this chart looking at the odds rising when it comes to recession. let's take a look at this chart. this is according to data we have from the fed of new york.

we are at the nearest to the highest level of expansion at the moment. is it being too bearish being we are seeing a pickup in sentiment elsewhere? chris: it probably is, yeah. and i think the component that is pushing it is the shape of the yield curve. short-term yields are very high relative deal -- to long-term yields, which of course reflects that tightening. to some extent, maybe still these huge balance sheets caret by central banks, not just the fed but the ecb and boj, bank of england as well, that are putting downward pressure on long yields. andit is that flat curve, of course economists are debating whether that is meaningful and something we should worry about. it would be nice to have data so we could check it. shery: what do you make of the fed's massive communication campaign after their last meeting? what were they trying to achieve? chris: i think the most important thing, now that we

have the minutes, we know there was an intention to signal a change of move. they are not as eager to raise rates, but we missed that on december 19 at the press conference. reactedtraders mostly to chairman powell's very optimistic stance on growth. and the way they interpreted that is we are looking at the markets, we see the markets, but we do not agree with the markets. since then, the message has changed. yes, the economy is slowing down. yes, we are aware of some of the challenges in europe, in asia. and we know that there is the possibility that could spill over. and i think maybe the most important thing, because inflation is very low, there is no need to rush with rate hikes. haidi: bloomberg economics is not projecting two rate hikes this year instead of three. where du put the fed's tightening policy this year? chris: two is really the most

they can do. i expect they are on hold in the first half. i think ultimately they will be on hold of the second half as well. where my forecast is different than most, i am quite optimistic inflation will stay below the 2% target. -- we're talking about, inflation is very much an internationally determined statistic. with chinese inflation in retreat, i think you're going to see goods prices falling enough to keep inflation down here. there is really no reason to tighten if inflation is taught -- falling away from 2%. haidi: if you look at market probabilities, two looks like a lot this year as well. it is not just a globally determined concept, inflation, but structurally it has been a head scratcher for economists as well. chris: absolutely. haidi: what happens if brexit becomes messes -- messy?

does that change the game? chris: it should. they have to operate in the environment may find themselves in. it is the same with the shutdown, if that drags out longer. i think one of the reasons that has been weighing on the market in particular is that congress has to raise the debt ceiling in march. if the two sides are this far apart on something as simple as how do you work out a compromise to reopen the government, well, the debt ceiling could be challenging as well. shery: do you have any outside risks? chris: yeah. i think maybe the biggest upside risk is if president trump and dealdent xi can work out a and get chinese u.s. trade going again. think, are i negotiating in good faith now. i do not think they were last year. neither side really wanted a deal.

now they are trying to find a workable compromise. so that is definitely an upside risk. there is some pressure from inside the republican and democratic arteries to -- parties to work on a compromise of reopening the government as well. and i think maybe the route of that, when you think about the $5 billion requested for building a wall, it is something like 1% of the $3.5 trillion budget. perhaps if republicans can offer democrats something they want very much in return, then maybe we can have a compromise. but right now of course, the leaders of both sides are saying no, and that is it. shery: there seems to be no compromise in europe either. we are seeing fractured european policy, including in greece, now calling for no-confidence vote. tough this is a really one for people were not increased to understand.

the idea was the greek government compromised, allowed a former yugoslavia republic to rename itself the republic of northern macedonia. macedonia is a greek province which came into greece in a war with yugoslavia in 1912 to 1914. and there are some greeks who think if you give this name to northern macedonia, they will make claims to that former yugoslavian province. i do not think that is really an issue. cypress does not think it is an issue either, otherwise they would not have agreed to the compromise deal. but it was enough that he has lost part of his coalition. honestly, i think at this stage traders are happy because new elections, they have been gearing up for elections for six months and they are not really getting anything done. new elections, maybe we get a more stable group together running the government and they can get back to doing business.

haidi: certainly uncertainty when it comes to greece is not new for global markets but it adds to that fracturing of politics see across europe. we're going to have to leave it there, but great to have you on. lots more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪

haidi: let's get a quick check of the latest headlines. investors continue to pull money from the bond fund. it saw $60 million a reductions in december, lori assets to $950 million from february's all-time high. the fund has leaked cash for 10 consecutive months. it suffered a loss of 4% last year. underperforming more than 80%. shery: remco may top the bond market for $10 billion to fund

the acquisition of a petrochemical giant. in thegdom will decide coming weeks about the size of any proposed bond, indicating it will not be so enormous. it would force it to disclose its accounts for the first time. .

haidi: markets locally opened for the cash trading session and 30 minutes -- open for the cash trading session in 30 minutes. this is up 1% despite wishing -- wall street finishing with a slow -- three straight weeks of gains for the three major indices. lots of event risk for china trade kicking off the week as rateas bank of indonesia decision. earnings financials and the likes of netflix as well. 5:30 in new york, i am strategy -- haidi stroud-watts. shery: let's get to first word news with paul allen. suggests halfll

of america blames president trump for the record government shutdown. the washington post-abc survey said 53% blamed the president and republicans while 29% blame democrats. halfoll finds more than are against a declaration of a national emergency to fund the border wall. the u.k. opposition leader jeremy corbyn will call a confidence vote if the brexit deal failed in parliament. prime minister may is no closer to winning the backing then in december -- than in december. the bank of england says it would weaken sterling and house prices and push the economy into recession. the government of greece is -- and the after prime minister will call a confidence vote.

it is the latest sign of political instability for the euro area. people are planning a confidence vote on wednesday that could end the left's for years in power. -- four years in power. arrested this man -- the chinese company acted before he entered a plea, saying the incident brought huawei into does review -- into disrepute. it has been under scrutiny from several western countries. huawei has rejected accusations, saying its products are safe. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. shery: u.s. stocks were under amidste friday, but this progress with the trade talks with china and a dovish fed. we could see more momentum in

asian trading. let's see how we are setting up with sophie kamaruddin. sophie: asian stocks could be set for a mixed start after capping the best week since december. stocks in wellington up .2% and the kiwi going lower after rising the most in two months last week. the aussie dollar above $.72 u.s. switching the board to check on wesfarmers ahead of cash trading. we are looking at the retailer after they reported disappointing sales. women's where in particular took a hit, as more shoppers are turning to online shopping. the company said the department store unit is expected to report earnings before interest and tax comparedion australian to $415 million a year ago. shares are down compared to the asx 200's gain.

was cut to -- platinum ceo in a recent interview said the back half of 2018 was a disappointment but he sees reasons for optimism this year. they should look for investment opportunities instead of hoarding cash. the end of december includes singh -- samsung, glencore in china overseas -- and china overseas. we have breaking news on the bloomberg, getting the latest lines from -- speech from prior mr. may'-- prime minister extract. she says brexit would be catastrophic for the democracy. she says it is better than a known -- a no deal divorce. the parliament will vote on tuesday.

this is an extract from her speech she will make tomorrow saying stopping drugs that would be catastrophic for democracy. we know the vote is coming tuesday but she is set for a huge defeat. mp's are expected to vote down her bill. jeremy corbyn has indicated his party would be ready to call a no confidence vote within days if her deal is rejected. that vote on tuesday and an extract of her speech, saying stopping brexit would be catastrophic for democracy. the u.k. is expected to leave march 29, that is its deadline. haidi: very interesting she says no brexit is more likely than a no deal brexit. it back in december because she didn't have the vote. there is still much opposition and jeremy corbyn -- and jeremy corbyn is waiting in the wings. a huge risk for markets.

let's count down to the open on wall street. .u keenan has a recap we had oil prices moving and big banks earnings this week. shery: we will get started with the city bank earnings on monday. su: so banks grabbing the headlines and a lot of analysts confirm maybe not so great performance. let's take a look and go into the charts. we have the way we closed, very interesting we had a third straight week of start gains. the longest winning streak for the s&p 500, friday's rally had a bit of a dip at the close. energy prices were the weak points and financials, a bit of day.t by the end of the almost unchanged. let's go into the big names reporting. morgan, citibank, j.p. and what we have from the

analysts is pessimism. they have trimmed estimates for earnings per share this fourth quarter by the most any year since 2016. we have other big banks. netflix as well reporting earnings. goldman is the hardest hit among the six banks that have been downgraded. guidance --io morgan stanley three iteration of the 2018 profit goals, that seemed to likely outperform. netflix will set the trend for the faang stocks. let's go into the bloomberg, the s&p 500 on a weekly winning streak, third straight. you can find our library of charts on gtv. volatility suggests the bears will step back in, so it is not easy going. tentative rally. haidi: lots of questions for oil. friday was a falter in the

rally, but up 20% since december with the two-year low. one oil minister in opec thinks it could go higher. optimism the rally is going forward. the headlines you mentioned, we have two of the biggest oil producers in opec. we have video we can show you actually predicting that oil high average $60 and go as as $70. last week was a slow rise off the bottom. do we have any stock price charts? we see coming off the lowest december, you have last week, 2% dip on friday. but we are 20% higher off the december low. quickly into the bloomberg, oil failing to reclaim its 50 daily moving average, so that is concerned it could signal

bearish volatility. gtv is where you find a library of charts. if we could go into the bloomberg, it would be great. there we go. volatile the oil picture is. the key takeaway here is you -- in oilve $54 and for the u.s. shale producers to have a profit. oil arells for $70 green lights for them and maybe they will overproduce, starting the whole supply-demand dynamic in a huge -- in a new direction. shery: thank you for that, the latest on the market. auto analysts are projecting doom and gloom in 2019 but one player says it can buck the trend. general motors is forecasting a surprise profit for this year. inocencio has the details. we are looking at the north american international auto show in detroit.

we had numbers out of china, the slowdown in two decades, not a great environment to be kicking off this. ramy: which is one reason why a lot of major players are not going to detroit. it is a strange phenomenon with gm because -- also this optimistic outlook. rose to closeay at 7% higher. it had actually been up 9% during the friday trading session. if you flip up the board, i can show you why there was all this optimism. in sixd earnings came dollars to seven dollars a share. the estimate was five dollars, $.92. -- $5.92. the big driver, they say it will be ok. china's markets, audio -- they are expecting a slight dip.

both of these are both ok for the company. fivecuts, possibly closing factories and possibly that $2.5 help in 2019 to save billion. by 2020, they say $6 billion in additional profit could be realized. is not enough for you, the ceo spoke to bloomberg television earlier. >> we have more work to do. i made the announcement at the end of last year. we are focused on this transformation to make sure general motors is strong and demonstrating even in a cyclical business, we can continue to deliver results. but not justm, from gm but forward. -- ford. we got this message. >> i think the auto business is

going to be solid. signalsomy itself has that create uneasiness, but i don't think there are any markers saying we are in a recession. ofy: not one but two ceo's american automakers saying it will be ok. looking ahead, as long as it continues to be ok, they will do restructuring in terms of going into bigger suv's -- no surprise. we have talked about that shift from like vehicles to big suv's to big suv's.les there is a new chevy blazer suv. there is that bush. there is also a push into electric vehicles as well. outlooke have that rosy -- investors wonder if this could be an outlier. morgan stanley, others pointing

out it wasn't of lifting. ramy: this is making me scratch i wasd -- my head because talking about positivity from gm and ford, but looking at these outlooks, there is more negativity. let me roll you through these. goldman sachs, the stress is overall negative set up for company guidance. looking at the second page. 2019 could mark and other difficult year for autos with downside risk to curb earnings forecast. we can see morgan stanley seeing something similar. going to guiding to profit levels materially lower than consensus. and this is the same story we are hearing, let's see. we see below consensus guidance. have a new bloomberg news story on the terminal talking

about whether the u.s. auto market is in recession. one final flip, and i can tell you for u.s. like to vehicles -- light vehicles, versus suv's and crossovers, it has only grown 0.3%. you can hardly see this. in the fourth quarter of 2018 the small and light vehicle sales was the worst for any quarter. toyota and others are saying for 2018 we saw 17.3 million vehicles sold. they say they will be got -- they will go below 17 million. seeing gm optimism, but there is a lot of animist pessimism. haidi: ramy inocencio -- analyst pessimism. haidi: ramy inocencio there. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪

shery: i am shery ahn. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts.

you are watching daybreak australia. oman is predicting the oil outlook will hold. the agreement between opec and the independent producers will be able to sustain brent at $60 a barrel. shery: let's go to austin and bring in jason shanker. always great to have you with us. we saw the latest about of weakness with wti falling below $52 a barrel. was it because of the huge surge we have seen recently? jason: that is recent -- that is part of it. the big run-up in prices, it is now a bit of a pause. we will see things be choppy but solid. shery: how will the u.s. driving season support prices? jason: that is one of the two most important factors on the demand side, and that will be very strong given the unemployment rate as low as it

job market in decades. we will have the biggest summer driving system -- season in history. people will have to prep for that. there will be a lot of buying of crude. haidi: it was interesting hearing that the opec cuts have moved to benefit u.s. shale as well. take a look at the best week we have had in two years. we have seen a rebound since the december low off the two-year low. is this a market that is getting opec of itself or has reasserted itself to regain the lost credibility? jason: opec and non-opec members lost credibility a long time ago when oil prices started to crater, but they got it back when they were working together to reduce global oil

inventories. they did that throughout 2018. as we look into 2019, they will be on top of the price dynamics. they have worked hard to get that credibility to show they are on top of the supply side of the situation. but the supply side, they might be more on top and demand from driving season looks good, but there is one other major factor. that is the chinese manufacturing situation, chinese demand. that is one of the key things that triggered the selloff in oil. china's sigh shin manufacturing pmi contracted. if it continues to contract, it will be tough are prices to move higher even with the strong driving season. haidi: it would be difficult to see the manufacturing rebound, given we are awaiting trade numbers from december. this guy makes a good point that it has provided a lifeline to

shale drillers. the u.s. remains the same producer here. shale is in the cheapest or the most expensive. it is in the middle. you can add quite a bit of additional capacity if the isces at a certain level -- -- if the price is at a certain level. we are close to that now, but when the driving season ends, if china continues to weaken through the year and we don't see improvement in trade relations, the price of oil will be under a lot of pressure in the second half of the year. shery: you put shale production on one side and the other chinese demand slowing. which one is a bigger downside risk to prices? jason: the chinese manufacturing side. china is the biggest net importer of crude oil, the

biggest expected single source of future oil demand. commodities are bought and not sold. anyone knows this. s moremand side respond quickly, and china will be critical moving forward. that is why oil prices this year, it is tough to see things move higher without china coming back to the table with manufacturing data -- positive manufacturing data. we see an end to the tightening cycle and perhaps an end to the u.s. outperformance. u.s. dollar weakness seems inevitable. how critical will the dollar be boosting prices for oil? jason: the dollar is another factor for in face -- four inverse price correlation. we have expected one at most in q1 if at all because we are expecting the high inflation to run off during the year we see

pressures, a weaker dollar, that is supportive. if you still don't have a bid from china, it will be tough to see the price move higher. haidi: it is like the same for commodities. it is not just oil but we are seeing broader commodities rebounding from the two-year, three year low. is that sustainable on the basis we could see further china , the weaker dollar will not last? with the bifurcated dynamics, precious oils moving higher on expectations of a dovish fed, industrial metals still under pressure. aluminum ended lower, copper was up a little higher. aluminum is the number to watch going forward. that is the critical leader across commodities. it is also the metal china consumes the most of, the

majority of the world's aluminum is consumed in china. i had an article out in the bloomberg opinion about aluminum and how it leads both equities and oil prices. shery: what did you make of the massive communication campaign from the fed after the latest meeting that they had? we heard from everyone, most of the fed presidents. jason: last friday i had a powellrg meeting with and bernanke and yellen and i 2019.ed to as dovefest with all the speech we have seen trying to get across a dovish message, recently they forecasted an additional two rate hikes or more, so they have had to peel back the expectation of a hawkish fed in order to

provide forward guidance for the markets. shery: thank you so much. jason schenker, president of prestige economics. you can get a roundup of stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. go to dayb on your terminals. it is also available on mobile in the anywhere app. you can customize settings so you only get news on industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪

haidi: a quick check of the business flash headlines. the world's oldest bank is ready to sell covered bonds and is expected to contact investors this week. they will try to issue the nose after market volatility torpedoed last year's plan. it wants to do this after its capital position weekend. akened. shery: cathay pacific has sold

premium seats after a similar to getting error. it offered first-class seats .1m portugal to hong kong at the normal price. the carrier is aware of the issue and blames input problems on its website. hackers exposed the private details of almost 10 million last year. haidi: the hong kong airport some record last year with highs , flight movements and cargo. they had 75 million travelers and 427,000 flights and total freight rose 1.5% from 2017. but global uncertainties saw the clark go -- saw the cargo fall. shery: we go live to the asian financial forum in hong kong for interviews and special coverage. it will start with a conversation with the chinese online lender [indiscernible]

to,i: lots to look forward but that is it for us. we will be back for daybreak asia. the open of trading in sydney almost upon us. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

good morning and welcome to "daybreak asia." i am haidi stroud-watts. shery: i am shery ahn. we will bring you the news you need to know when markets open across asia. ♪ haidi: our top stories, asia-pacific markets set for a mixed monday after their best week since november, earnings and china's latest trade data are in focus. theresa may's brexit d