tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg January 23, 2019 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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the shutdown tracks on amid warnings of zero growth of this quarter. nancy pelosi is blocking the state of the union. get a quicket's check of the markets here in the u.s.. a day it was for u.s. stocks. the s&p 500 managed to finish above its 50 day moving average. we had some cautious confidence as this rebound may be has legs. the nasdaq stayed unchanged. essence be futures are also not moving that much right now. we do have concerns over global growth and trade tensions. but some more positive earnings coming out of ibm, procter & gamble, and united technologies.
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asian stocks are set for a softer start as that growth debate continues in sydney. we are seeing some lawsuits. led bygards are being beach energy, which is off by 2%. in new zealand, we are seeing declines in futures. we do have some corporate updates on the agenda. reporting earnings fell short of expectations on weaker demand for memory chips. that tracks with texas instrument's performance in the fourth quarter. the focus will be on the policy decision for any revision to economic growth and inflation. elsewhere on the agenda we have
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jobs data from australia and at 10:00 p.m. hong kong time, we will get data from the philippines. let's get you the first news. trump's formal legal fixer is delaying his testimony to congress and definitely over what. he calls threats to his family. michael cohen says his wife and children are getting calls from the president and rudy giuliani to investigate collins father-in-law. money is pouring out of the u.k. as lawmakers continue to argue over how the country should leave the european union. five of the largest banks now intend to move more than $850 billion to frankfurt. the eu is frustrated with the government's inability to strike a deal.
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>> if we fail in the brexit negotiations, we will be stepping back, or at least the u.k. will be stepping back, to a time before it was a member of the eu. when customs duties were the day-to-day life of businesses. : the aussie dollar was the worst performing developing nation currency last year. says it makes a rate cut more likely. the rba says australian household debt has sort -- soared. downrone that briefly shut the work liberty airport came close to hitting a united airlines plane. the pilots have been once that and under do the piecuch is in the area. he said it came within 30 feet of his right-wing. a shutdown disrupted flights and
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triggered lengthy delays. drones recently shut down a london airport. global news, 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. at -- a look take at the way the u.s. markets closed, there is no hint at the drama and turmoil behind the day. these global growth concerns led to things getting in the way. >> a lot of better than expected earnings. the big question isn't about global growth. in particular, how weak is china's growth? we go to the snapshot. the dollar snapped its recent rise. you also said -- had oil drop.
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if we go into the bloomberg, the real question with the s&p 500, it had climbed to try to get through the 50 day moving average. now as it breaks through, tentatively the question is when does it become support, where it protects the markets from falling lower? people say it takes another week for this to play out. let's take a look at the big earnings stories. you had international business machines, ibm, procter & gamble coming in with much better than expected earnings. comcast really blew it out, rising the most in six years after it show the world that cable companies still have gas in the tank.
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it is really about the chip stocks. there are some positive stories there. it isrd, even though rising after hours, the real headline is is it descended into the red in the final months of 2018, drag and -- down by deep deficits and losses in asia. it reported a net loss of 160 million for the fourth quarter. there are a lot of mixed earnings that helped prop the stock up. texas instruments also beating the earnings but getting a weaker than expected outlook. we have one more chart to show you. it is consumer confidence. look at that drop. how this deming prospect of american consumers has a lot to do with the lingering u.s. government shutdown, now entering a record.
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you heard from white house economic analysts who said if the shutdown does not and say, you could have zero gdp growth for the quarter. they also said if we suddenly saw the agencies reopened, there would be a humongous burst in growth. that may have been a political comment to get things rolling. thes starting to wear on federal workers who have gone for many weeks without any income whatsoever. shery ahn: thank you so much. let's discuss the government shutdown. the state of the union addresses the latest victim of this partial shutdown in washington. house speaker nancy pelosi has written to president trump officially postponing his speech until the government is fully reopened. this seems unprecedented. the partial shutdown is the longest on record.
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what do we know so far? >> nancy pelosi basically told trump don't bother showing up to the u.s. house where the state of the union is. it is constitutionally mandated that the president has to go reportedly state of the union. it does not say where he has to do it. nancy pelosi has basically said not in my house, not in the people's house. we do not know where the government -- president will do this. he got in and the patient from the governor of west virginia to go there and speak at the capital. there has been talk of holding a political rally. go over to will mitch mcconnell side of the aisle and go into the senate or the old senate chamber. presidentime that a actually gave a state of the union that was not in the house chamber, you're talking richard nixon. that is generations ago. this just does not happen. it is the latest in the
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escalation between trump and pelosi. it makes it obvious that we are not close to a breakthrough right now. seemsahn: president trump to have a new slogan, build a wall and crime will fall. but democrats are working on their own plan on the border. what could that mean? >> trump likes to come in with the slogans. everybody has a nickname. the democrats are going to try to preempt this a little bit. they will put out a package, probably later this week, which basically says let's give you a bunch of money for the border but not construction of a physical wall. this could be things like port of entry, additional border control. things that would normally get bipartisan support but in the political climate we are in right now, this wall has become a religious test for democrats. they want to give no money to it at all. shery ahn: the administration
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has officially recognized the opposition leader of that is ezuela.he -- ven >> this is a major story across the americas. they got backed up by canada and major latin american and south american countries. mexico did not follow along with this. now you are preparing for nightfall in caracas and we kind of do not know what will happen here. the government said that u.s. diplomats have to get out. but the diplomats do not think that is an order from a legitimate government. who knows? this situation has a long way to go before it gets to stability. it is very unstable right now.
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we saw the defense ministry in venezuela back up a thorough -- maduro. it is hard to see how this plays out. but trump was not alone on this. if people think he is just running his mouth and creating instability, he is backed up by most of south america right now talking about a need for change and venezuela. shery ahn: thank you so much for your time. still ahead, breaking through on trade. congressmanead u.s. talks improving u.s.-china relations. coming up, we will talk about the likelihood of a deal before the trade truce expires. the president of the national foreign trade council joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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they are likely to keep the steak and it after the bid. that is according to the nikkei news. joining us now is the president of the national foreign trade council and former deputy director of the wto. we will be talking about trade and so much more. we have heard now comments coming from the chinese vice davos rejecting all of these allegations by the u.s. on structural reforms whether it is ip theft or forced technology transfers. this is to be growing consensus that china does engage in unfair trade practices. is this worth the short-term pain if we do to eventually get to some long-term solution to these issues?
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>> it is important to say that china has a lot of practices that are very serious problems. forced techtions of transfer, of ip infringement, they are really real and the businesses have been adversely affected by them. we have questioned all along what is the best way to try to get china to address these practices. we do not think rapid escalation of tariffs has worked very well. a better way would be to get the rest of the world on our side and use the consensus of the rest of the world economy to push china in the right direction. i think tariffs should be a last resort rather than a first resort. shery ahn: you have been the deputy director general of the wto. we are seeing more moves from the u.s. and together with the e.u. and japan to push for
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reform of the wto and address these subsidy issues. how are those conversations going? how positive are you that we could get somewhere on the multilateral front? >> i think it is possible to make progress with the support of europe, japan, and a lot of other countries. it would've been good if we joins the tpp agreement. that would've helped develop a broader consensus in asia. time. things will take they do not happen overnight. we should be working with the rest of the world on it. we will not get them to be helpful and enthusiastic if we are busy slapping tariffs on steel or automobiles and creating irritation with our best trading partners. that is not a great way to put the pressure on china. when it comes to
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those external pressures, we are headed toward those potential auto tariffs. and how whatrisk it derail the conversations that have already been established. for example, in 2018 we did see some progress. question, if the administration goes forward with these tariffs on autos, it will be a major disruption. it will cause adverse impacts in the u.s. economy to u.s. auto producers. we export to million automobiles to the rest of the world. the kind of retaliation we would face in these markets. the impact that steel and aluminum tariffs have already had on american industry and you pile on top of that these auto tariffs, that would be pretty disastrous. is there appetite for reconsideration of rejoining tpp? trump ist think the
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seriously considering that right now. it would be a good thing if they would. tpp 11 wentthat the forward with the agreements. u.s.means that agricultural exports to japan, for example, now face tariffs much higher than australian agricultural exports. not doneon, japan has a free trade deal with the european union. that will take place the same. by the u.s. opting out of this agreement, we have taken ourselves out of the game of trade liberalization and preferential agreements that all of our biggest trading partners are busy pursuing with each other. will make big problems for u.s. industry and u.s. agriculture trying to compete for world markets. hasi: i don't think there
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been a single analyst or expert we have spoken to who has not said strategically the tpp is the best are way to counter the rise of china if that is what washington is trying to do. what do you see as the long-term playbook here? we are assuming that even if we have a shorter term of kicking the can down the road when it ,omes to trade negotiations this is a longer-term strategic competition between two rising superpowers. how does that not derail global trade and diplomacy? >> the u.s. and china are both adversaries and yet at the same time we do have a strong trading relationship. we have to see that it becomes more evenly balanced and that china begins to respect some of our rights in that relationship. it would be a big mistake to throw the whole relationship and the turmoil. the biggest problem
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right now for u.s. industry everywhere you look. whether you look at the government shutdown, these trade fights, brexit. the big problem we face is uncertainty. we do not know which way a lot of these processes are going to take us. fort of them have potential bad consequences for global business operations. the stabilizing effect. -- destabilizing effect. u.s. economy has a lot to lose if we cannot keep some kind of progress toward a more open and world space trading system. last year really was about the u.s. renegotiating nafta and other treaties. this year seems to be the focus on china, the e.u., and japan. you cannot do everything at once.
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should one of those avenues be prioritized? >> i think the first thing to point out that although nafta got renegotiated, that new agreement still has a long way to go before he goes into effect. the u.s. congress has to approve this. the administration has a lot to do to try to bring strong enough and more overwhelming support for that agreement to get it through congress. one of the things they need to do is get rid of these steel and aluminum tariffs that we impose on canada and mexico. those are completely contrary to a free trade agreement with our partners. once we get that down with, we may be in a better and position to negotiate with japan and europe. make progress on those if we are imposing unilateral tariffs on automobiles under some national security pretends. we have to try to get to a point where we are looking toward
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stronger, more, open relationships with these partners, rather than this fortress mentality that has taken over in the administration for the past two years. haidi: we appreciate your time with us. china has used the world economic forum in davos to mount a figure as defense of globalization and an attack on protection was in -- protectionism. our china correspondent joins us from beijing. along their much narrative of china being the champion of global trade and opening up. we heard this from president xi just a couple of years ago. >> you are absolutely right. there were echoes of his speech from the vice president when he took the stage and thomas. -- in davos. this was a speech tailored to
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the international audience in this battle of ideas and economic strategy between the u.s. and china. he talked about the international system being under assault from populism and protectionism, saying that countries were increasingly looking inward and trade barriers were rising. it lookedok a swipe, like, at the america first policies of president trump, saying that they did not agree with large countries bulling -- bullying week countries. toalso said there was a need make sure global growth became more equitable. that the pie grew and more people benefited from that. -- he also pushed back against the idea that china has been a abuser of intellectual property. he talked about china's innovations over the last two years have an due to the hard work and entrepreneurial spirit of the chinese people. that nothing was given to them.
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that is central to these talks around u.s.-china trade. this is a tailored speech to the international audience. you have to wonder whether or not patience is starting to wear thin with some of this messaging, given that many businesses here, western businesses operating in china, are worried about the glacial pace of reform and opening. you did not get any lines in the speech talking about the need to push back against western democracy, civil society, human rights. all lines that have been put in communist party committee case to party cadres over the last few years. this is a pretty one-sided message, and you have to message -- question how it will be taken by some in the business community. shery ahn: what about some words on the chinese economy?
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of course, the central part of the conversation in davos is the chinese growth trajectory as well as the trade war. he came out with some soaring messages saying that growth would be sustained in 2019. ofthere will be a lot uncertainties in 2019 but something that is certain is that china's economy, growth, will continue and be sustainable. the 6.6% growth that was notched up in 2018, which was the weakest level in almost three decades, was not too low. he said it would be sustained growth in 2019. people are very conscious that the clock is ticking down to march 1, after of which if there is not a trade deal, president trump has threatened to raise tariffs from 10% to 25%. shery ahn: thank you so much for that.
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my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: asia." the trump administration is recognizing a new leader in venezuela. the white house congratulated ordinary venezuelans who demanded that maduro step down. the trump administration that if the government shutdown persists through march, there is a chance of zero economic growth this quarter. a top aide said growth could rebound to four or 5% when the government reopens.
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the feud between president trump and the democrats is deepening, with nancy pelosi blocking the upcoming state of the union while the shutdown continues. china's senior leadership has approved a new high-tech board at the shanghai exchange to boost the markets inclusion of science and tech companies and to support greater innovation. the move was announced by the president a year ago. draft rules for the new venue are suspected with in the coming days. hollywood's reliance on rising movie ticket prices has helped bolster box office sales for decades. but last year told a different tale. priceance, rather than inflation, was the biggest part of setting a record for revenue. 1.3 billion tickets were sold in the u.s. last year, up more than 5% since 20 17. global news, 24 hours a day on
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air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. a look at howake aussie markets are faring this morning. sophie kamaruddin is in hong kong with us. we are seeing communications and energy shares and financials and materials being the laggards. the aussie dollar is steady ahead of the december jobs report. 18,000 jobs are disposed -- excited to be added. some stocks are on the move. northern star is extending losses for a fourth great session -- straight session. challenger is sliding for a third day coming all into a february 2016 low after losing more than 70% on wednesday.
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-- 17% on wednesday. secondary gold out that came in lower than targeted. costs were higher than expected and warned further investigation given evolutions focus on that asset. chipmakersglobal from three different continents announced earnings. their announcements are the latest evidence of the battered industry. >> no matter where you look right now, whether it is in the u.s. or asia or the netherlands, this is a dreary picture. there is no surprise. take a look at where these three stocks have been over the past year. the first one, texas instruments, down by about 13%.
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asml down about 13%. bloomberg intelligence says they expect more volatility because they say that we have not hit a bottom just yet. and cement, which did report during the day today. they did eat here for the fourth quarter about four cents an after hours are up about 1.4%. it was not so much the fourth quarter that people were looking at. analysts were looking at the first quarter revenue guidance. $3.34 billion is what came in. 1.60 billion is what people were expecting. that was a mess, but according to bloomberg intelligence, this miss was not as bad as people were expecting. the expectation was for $1.21.
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the tax rate is a little bit lower. one thing happened in the terminal, it seems like what is happening with texas instruments here in white seems to be doing better than the semi conductor index in total, which is here in blue. you can see that it has been outperforming for january and for a good part of december. it was sayingober performance on par. but right now it is definitely a little bit of a over performer. miss whening a clear it comes to these numbers. over the past year, it is down 7.7%. forre seeing weaker demand memory chips because in large part of what is happening in the smartphone market. there is so much saturation there.
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they get about 13% of their revenue from apple. first-quarter operating profit was a mess. net was also a mess. sales a miss. not so much volatility as we have seen over the past four annual reports when we have seen the share price drop up or down by about 3%. haidi: earlier today we had disappointment out of europe as well. >> that was with asml out of the netherlands. they came out with disappointing first-quarter outlooks, below the lowest analyst estimates. this is in part due to a fire at one of their component factories. they lost a lot of hardware there and they will need time to get that back. they are seeing a negative impact of 300 million euros. with that said, there is still
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some positivity when you look at the analysts. happened to the bloomberg terminal me one more time. this is one of my favorite functions, the animal it -- analyst recommendation function. you can still see that the buys have it. citi expects that the consensus will drop lower. the stock is one of the safest bets in the industry. goldman sachs is looking at the results call but rating it a buy. the heels of the bank of japan, three more central banks are making decisions. we will be looking at bank of korea and others. bank of korea is a to hold steady after last month. >> they certainly are. interesting that in the midst of
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the previous six months of 2018. think of korea worried about inflation. -- they had made the move a purple events. korea's growth rate is slowing. they are expected to keep that key rate at 1.75%. even an export powerhouse like korea cannot escape from two big things. one of them is the intricacies of the asian supply chain. they are smack dab in the middle of that export market. if that slows down, korea cannot escape. the world's largest -- 11 largest economy and fifth biggest exporter. let's look at they function on the bloomberg terminal see what --happening to experts
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exports from south korea recently. a top charges the first 20 days of the previous month. they are down nearly 15%. year over year is not just a matter. just over 1%. the concern here is the trend. economy grew at its slowest rate in six years. a lot ofn spite of government spending going on. you can see now what they will be holding steady. see what happens with trade and with exports, such an eight important driver of their economy. it will be important to hear what the bank of korea has to say then. it comes tohen malaysia, it seems to share korea's fate on export. it has another vulnerability, falling oil prices. could rates the cut at the meeting today? >> no one really expects a rate cut, but it is interesting that there seems to be more
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discussion about where this bank is heading and why. let's just take a look at a chart here. we can see where they stand in the rate world. this is the starting point for all of these discussions, isn't it? they have had one interesting increase in their key rate recently. coming down, so inflation is far less of a worry. but falling oil prices is cutting their exports. that reduces their revenue. a rate cut could make their bonds less attractive. that could come at a time they are trying to restructure their government's death. another reason for them to stay on hold. coming up, ahead of u.s.-china trade talks, we will discuss the prospect with congressman richard larson. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: day two at davos and one clear issue is defending the global order. you toll on all of rebuild trust in our system of international trade. that should be our system that is fair, transparent, and effective. global architecture will only function if we are able to compromise as a whole. >> many countries are increasing looking inward involve making policies. barriers and unilateralism and protectionism and populism are spreading in the world. all of these are proposing
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challenges to the national order. shifting will blame to others will not result of problem. trade concerns remain high ahead of talks next week in washington. as the clock ticks down to the march 1 terror of deadline. congressman rick larsen is a democrat from washington state and cochairs the u.s.-china working group, which aims to improve two-way ties. frome getting more insight economic advisers about what the trade negotiations look like. he is calling it broader and deeper than ever before. how does that both for a potential resolution by march 1? >> i don't know if we will get there on march 1. from this trade talk is important for everyone in the country and my own state, where
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40% of the jobs depend on trade. and the county i grew up in an represent, it is 60%. the outcome of these toxins extreme the critical to the economic health of my state and the health of the country. shery ahn: we are seeing a government shutdown in its 33rd day. now we are seeing the impact on the office of the u.s. trade representative as well. i am hearing they have already used up their funding, they are only operating with 30% of their staff. where are we going with the shutdown? to reopen theneed government, get these americans back to work, it them the pay that they deserve and are entitled to, and then we can move forward on this debate about border security. the plug-ins on this debate of closed a little bit in the last week. we are not there yet. the senate is taking both soon. the house is introducing
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which the pub more money and border security. hopefully that moves us closer to a compromise. shery ahn: speaker pelosi not allowing the state of the union address. was that the right call? that she read invited him to give the state of the union after the shutdown. i still think that it would be good to hear from the president, whether that is in writing or live. weil the shutdown is over, need to focus on that first rather than a speech. >shery ahn: this is already affecting trade. its hamper higher level negotiations next week? if secretaryis key mnuchin and the ambassadors are trying to move forward toward the march deadline. if all we end up with is dropping the tariffs in exchange
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for some more commodity purchases, then it will have been a lot of handwringing over very little. i think in congress we do agree with the problem. democratic republican members agreed that forced tech transfer , forests joint ventures, ip theft, state-owned enterprise, involvement in the chinese economy, all of those have to be addressed. i just do not see how the 's tariff policy is going to make the changes that we would like to say. >> the reasoning for president trump is that the u.s. can potentially outlasts china and this trade war. he recently tweeted that china post of slowest economic numbers since 1990. makingsee trade tensions sense for china to make a real deal and stop playing around?
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if you say there is a bipartisan consensus, isn't this the right time to do so, when the u.s. economy is so much stronger than the chinese? >> the problem i see right now with the administration's approach is that right-handed left-handed not know what they are doing. advisorsaw the economic to the president say we may end up with 0% growth in the u.s. because of the shutdown. so at the same time that the economy might be suffering more than it should because of the economy, the chinese economy is still growing at 6.6% gdp officially. it is probably less than that actually. but it is still higher than where we are going. we seem to be shooting ourselves in the foot because of the shutdown. i don't know if there is a real deal as the president has said. i do think that for all the this tariff over policy, if we do not get something more than increased to cut -- commodity purchases, i think that does tend to
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undermine the administration's approach to china. a longer-term, multilateral approach, all of these take time but they are important to do if we want to see changes in the, -- chinese economy. we have the trump administration and the xi administration going at it. i just wonder what the cooperation level is on the congressional level and the local level. >> if you are to go to any big city in the country, you would see mayor's and governors trying to attract investment and the states, regardless of where those dollars come from, including china. that investment can mean local jobs and jobs mean more to
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mayors and governors than anything else. jobs and jobs mean more to mayors and governors than anything else. if at the congressional level, where the u.s.-china working group steps into a gap is to try to be the communicator with the national people's congress and .ur interlocutors and congress we can explain a little bit more about how congress sees the u.s.-china relationship. both to buttress the u.s. china -- u.s. interests but also to be a second way to talk to chinese officials and sand off some of the rough edges that can occur. shery ahn: thank you so much for joining us. that was congressman rick larsen, democrat from washington. haidi: let's take a look at some of the stories that are trending across the bloomberg universe. major casino operator says macau has already sold out for the lunar new year. analysts are overreacting when they're coming to their forecasts over their revenue declines in the world's biggest gaming hub. a $238 million dollar
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at this point. we will try to get some more details on that deal as they become available to us. shery ahn: let's turn to japan become a because the yen is trading flat today after the boj the fourthlook for quarter. overseas $2 trillion in savings. we talked to the president and ceo about what options remain on the table. >> increasing the consumption tax, it will not be affected to a certain degree. to cope with those problems, we are preparing many fiscal policies. but we are not trying to do so
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many things. the impact should be very minimal. i do not see any impact because of this hike. >> you said before that japan is likely to keep its interest rates standing pat for at least two years. is there concerned that if there is a slowdown, that the bank will have very little option to rescue the economy? try think japan has room to some fiscal policies. of the central bank of japan has always been saying that, as a central bank, if and when he has to do something, he has other means. interest rates have been very low already. i do not think we can lower the interest rate much more. but maybe some qe policy. buy about is going to
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¥83 million each year. as of now, they are not purchasing that much anymore. this is not the exits policy. if on a whim a, they have to do it, they may do it. or they are purchasing index stock to support the japanese economy. wise, weational policy could have some other means to avoid those negative impacts even though i do not think they will happen. >> given the uncertainties, the yen has become a haven play. are you comfortable with where it is headed? asthe economy is growing determined. and the politics is very stable. so it will be a prime seller for many more years.
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that is why i understand international traders like to buy japanese yen. i do not think it's level of exchange can be determined by only that appetite by traders. they have to affect the fundamentals of the economy. at 6%.s growing japan is growing at only 1%. haidi: let's take a look at what we are expecting. sophie is in hong kong. sophie: futures are pointing to marginal losses. we are on an earnings watch from lg household. fourth-quarter operating profit beat the expectation.
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>> are very good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. is markets have just opened for trade. -- asian markets have just opened for trade. sophie: welcome to "daybreak asia." haidi: our top stories this story, asia-pacific stocks look set to dip. investors remain unsettled. chipmakers are in the spotlight. sk hynix the latest to give
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disappointing earnings. china uses davos -- also coming up in "daybreak asia ," don't miss yvonne man's exclusive conversation with the bank of indonesia's governor. that is in about half an hour. let's get straight to the markets with sophie kamaruddin. a look aten you take what is happening with themes that are still play, we will get a lot of what could perhaps filter into that with the global growth debate still continuing at davos. the nikkei 225 is set for a third day of losses, down by about .5%. the kospi on the back foot, marginally. ground we are seeing aussie shares fluctuate after a two day drop. movements in the
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currency space. we have the yen picking up some steam after the loss we saw on wednesday after the boj cut its inflation forecast. switching now to check in on sk after very much in focus it missed estimates on its profit forecast given weakening member demand. we are seeing the stock gain ground up over 3% in seoul. so much for you that. sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. taking stock of the comments we are hearing. telling multiple stories in the u.s.. aftere the dollar sinking six days of gains. let's get more with our mliv strategist. we had a lot of talk about a dollar demand at the start of this year. it certainly is not
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helping when you hear white house advisers talking about zero growth in the first quarter. the ongoing partial shutdown in is really states pushing the fed after the picture. they are struggling already because a lot of the data they require is not coming through to them. it is being postponed because of the shutdown. many understand it to be the first quarter of 2019. be extended further if the shutdown goes down into a second or third month. the fed is being pushed back. reducedare certainly their expectations of fed hikes and maybe need to do more of that. all of these things undermine the currencies. the study downward bias we have seen could have further to iran as long as people think the u.s. said will be on hold
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for an extended period. the likesheard from of the cio of bridgewater thing the fed and other policymakers in the u.s. are actually being overoptimistic in terms of the kind of growth we are seeing. these are earnings expectations in the u.s. are looking pretty overdone at this point. mark: it takes a while for people to really come around to a significant change in the outlook. it's understandable that nobody wants to predict a recession. a hardwants to predict landing for the global economy. last year was an extremely good year for growth, as was the previous year. the ims is only forecasting a partial slowdown this year. they are talking about global growth above 3%, which are pretty decent numbers by any measure, so yes, it's very unlikely that the world will go into a recession, but these things can change quickly, so
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what was 3% growth can become growth with a 2% handle. that is a significant change across theread that whole world. these things need to be factored in. solo first half of the year than expected, the outlook would change significantly. it will take a while before this factored in. central banks would not want to start predicting too much about what's going to happen. shorter data, for one thing. would like to see more concrete evidence the slowdown is really writing. shery: we are looking at sterling gaining ground. it got another boost from speculation that the ukip parliament could be moving towards delaying brexit. has all of this been priced in? could we see further ground for rallies? mark: probably the place where there's more room is against the
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euro. the pound against the dollar have had a pretty good run, coming up close to its 200 day moving average. it might not be easy for the pound to get too much there. against the euro, there certainly is room. have an ecb meeting. they will have to acknowledge that growth is quite below where they would like it to be. the ukip parliament has given closer to the point where they may even delay brexit. they will be a big vote on this next week. it looks as though support is gaining ground for a motion to delay beyond march 29, so that would probably indicate that the chances are the u.k. would have a softer brexit or possibly go towards a second referendum. there are things building up to make the pound stronger here. theably more room against euro. plus, there are significant elections which cloud the political outlook. that will feed into the economy as well.
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there are clouds over the euro and the pound is looking healthier. that's probably the area in which traders will be more focused. shery: really looking forward to that ecb decision as well, mark cranfield. let's get the first word news with ed ludlow. the trump administration admits that if the government shutdown persist through march, there a chance of zero economic growth this quarter. it could rebound to 5% of the government reopens. trumpud between president and the democrats is deepening with nancy pelosi blocking the upcoming state of the union while the shutdown continues. former legalmp's fixer is delaying his testimony indefinitely due to what he calls threats to his family. says he says -- michael had to put it off. the president has called him a him of mindused
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to reduce his jail time. money is pouring out of the u.k. as lawmakers continue to argue about how the country should move the european union. banks intend to move $850 billion of balance sheet assets to frankfurt. u.s. says the u.k. would lose out on a new deal brexit. we fail in the brexit negotiations, we will be stepping back or at least the to awill be something back time before it was a member of the e.u. and singles market where customs were part of the day today life of businesses -- day-to-day life of businesses. the white house congratulated ordinary venezuelans who demand he step down and put washington backing
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behind the current head of the opposition led national assembly. he has already declared himself interim president. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ed ludlow. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. china has used the world mountic forum in davos to a defense of protectionism. the vice president offered a thinly veiled rebuke of president trump's economic policies. tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. give us some of the key takeaways from this speech. this was again chinese senior officials taking the stage at the world economic them to try to portray chinese leadership as being the rational actors and those ready to uphold the international system which the vice president said was facing an assault. risinged about
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protectionism and populism and said countries were increasingly looking inward and the trade barriers were rising. he talked about the need to uphold globalization, saying its an historicalas inevitability but saying there was a need to share the pie more equally between people around the world. seemed to take a swipe at the america first policy. he said china rejected the bullying of big countries to chinaountries and said pushed back against the self-proclaimed supremacy, seemingly taking aim at the america first policy. he also seemed to address some of the concerns around intellectual property thing china's advances had been down to chinese people's innovation rather than the theft of ip. and core to the continuing talks between the u.s. and china. this is a battle for ideas. of evidence to
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suggest china is losing the battle of ideas. much was not included in this reach ofcluding the the communist party into ever-growing areas of chinese society. inush for theology universities and schools here and of course what many would describe as the glacial pace of reform. xi pretty much had the delegates eating out of his hand previously. things have changed and it's now a much harder sell, arguably. haidi: tom, what did the vice president have to say about china's economic outlook? tom: people are very focused on what any senior chinese official has to say given we saw the weak gdp. he had some pretty reassuring comments. he said continued growth was pretty inevitable in china and
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it would be sustainable. take a listen to what he has to say. there will be a lot of uncertainties in 2019, but something that is certain is that china's economy, china's growth, will continue and will be sustainable. again, people are focused on what the fiscal and monetary policy measures are going to be going forward from the chinese government given the slowing growth here. we have pmi's and contraction outputs falling. a much focused on what steps will be put in place, but the message from the vice president is things will be stable. painted a picture of a warning for the communist party. he even said that if those risks there is aked at,
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potential threat to the communist party's long-term rule of the country. that was the warning from president xi. wang qishan's message is that growth will be sustainable. haidi: tom mackenzie in beijing with the latest. still ahead, we will have the bank indonesia governor for his outlook on the indonesian economy and the rupiah this year. up next, sk hynix is the latest memory giant you missed earnings for weaker demand. a look at how global chipmakers are doing, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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as the trade war continues. ramy inocencio has the details. >> it could get worse before it gets better. dage we hear time and time again. it is not just global growth concerns but saturation in the smartphone market and also what is happening in china as we just heard from tom mackenzie in beijing. the share prices of the three stocks that are reporting over the past day or so and we can see texas instruments is down 13% year on year. .k hynix down 6% asml reporting in the netherlands, also down by 13%. on that point that i said it could get worse before it gets better, bloomberg intelligence says we should expect more volatility to persist and that we have not seen an earnings bottom yet. sk hynix, just reporting the earnings, and basically, it is
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weaker demand for memory chips because of the stalling smartphone market. apple, for example, is sk hynix's number one customer. 30% of their sales come from apple. when they cut their revenue forecasts, it does not help sk hynix, but operating profit, net weret, sales, all underestimates here, but strangely, you can see the share now. of by 1.5% right i was looking into the bloomberg and the only thing positive that i saw was that they actually came out for a record income -- 15.5d net income at trillion won. texas instruments is on the radar. it was notlly said as bad as it could have been. hence why we are seeing the stock up by 1%. byt beat the fourth quarter
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four cents. the first quarter revenue was the more important thing. even though that was worse than a lot of investors were actually thinking it could have been a lot worse. pop into the bloomberg terminal. this also. texas instruments in white is doing better than the philadelphia stock exchange semiconductor index. it is in blue. possibly there is something that texas instruments is onto. they have less exposure to the telecoms industry. the revenue they get from apple is 7%. with sk hynix, it 13%. -- it is 13%. haidi: we also had disappointment out of europe. ramy: basically, they disappointed with the first-quarter sales outlook, below even the lowest analyst estimates due to a fire that came out from one of their components makers. they are seeing a negative
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impact of 300 million euros, hence the negativity. with that said, hop into the bloomberg terminal one more time, and you can take a look at the functions for asml. buys to nine holds to four cells. this stock is one of the safest bets in the industry and game in sacks -- goldman sachs is ready to buy. haidi: the standoff between china and canada over the arrest of huawei's cfo has taken an interesting twist. he has a strong case against being extradited to the u.s.. stephen engle has been following these developments. and it is an interesting turn of events, indeed. this is another case of canada saying our hands are tied . this is an extradition request from the united states. we are honoring this request.
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it is not been politicized. comments from the canadian ambassador to china are perhaps the strongest word comments from canadian government officials because it also kind of lens asdence to the case of -- she remains on bail and vancouver, awaiting the possible extradition to the united states because the united states has filed that extradition or plants the file that extradition request on their charges against the huawei cfo. this is what john the column had to say. -- john had to say. he held a press conference in a suburb of toronto which has a heavy chinese community, and most of the press that were in the press conference were chinese press. he said i think she has quite a strong case. we have to take that request seriously. it does not mean we want extradite her, but it means we
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have to detain her and have a hearing. she has commented that good arguments on her side. for one, he mentioned political reasons. keep in mind donald trump has said he could consider intervening in her case if it meant reaching a better trade deal with china. has all kinds of red flags including to the canadians envoy's mind. he mentioned extraterritorial aspect of the extradition request and also the issue of sanctions because he commented that canada does not necessarily sign onto the united states sanctions on iran. we know that canadians are being held in china. now, we are hearing that there is even an australian citizen being detained in china as well. are they at all caps did? -- connected?
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stephen: we have to be very careful not to connect them. listen, people are detained on a fairly regular basis in china, and there are said to be increased efforts to put pressure on what is called the chinese diaspora, the overseas s might be a thi completely unrelated case. what we do know is the writer and former diplomat, if you will, or someone who worked at the beijing foreign ministry an d affairs office, he is now an australian citizen. he was traveling from new york, transferring on a flight, connecting to shanghai. he did not necessarily make it security and has reportedly been detained according to australian officials. we cannot link this to the overall crackdown on the other canadians because we simply do not have any proof that it was linked, but it is yet another case of the chinese detaining a
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>> if there was to be materialization of the risks with your horizon, and this horizon is getting closer to what we had in october. that is the reason why we slightly revived our growth forecast. we see an economy that is slowing in terms of growth but not stalling by any means. by any means. of course, there is now -- there was synchronized growth this
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time last year, and now, there is the slowdown, but it is not really synchronized. >> you have got growth that kept up to a high level. it is coming down a little bit. that makes people nervous. ion for 2020 is back down below trend. shery: some of the leaders gathered in davos, expressing their concerns about an economic slowdown. this is "daybreak asia." i am shery on in washington. shery ahn in washington. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. they plan to meet the government's goal of becoming more self-sufficient. they have earmarked almost $12 billion this year and it is confident of reaching --
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phoenix internal cost savings and delays of a project in uganda. shery: they are singling out tencent's popular news app. the regulator has shut down 700 sites and thousands of mobile apps this month, scrubbing the 7 million items since january 3. tencent news is accused of spreading content that is "harmful and damaging" to the internet ecosystem. ,aidi: ford slid into the red jogged back by deeper shortfalls abroad and a loss on its own pension fund. it is a net loss of $160 million in the fourth quarter, far below the average estimate. ford is trying to turn things around by cutting jobs worldwide. shery: coming up next, an exclusive conversation with bank indonesia's governor l,ive from
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haidi: you are watching "daybreak asia." we are looking at how december job numbers are coming out of australia. this is usually volatile when it comes with what to expect. we are getting details in terms of the jobless rate falling the lowest in six years but taking down from 5.1% in november. employment is rising stronger than the 18,000 jobs we were to the economy. full-time employment falling 3000 jobs. part-time employment rising and
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the participation rate was 65% in december, shy of estimates of 65.7%. , six a very strong season year low and more jobs inspected to be added to the economy. we have the market pricing in the chance of an rba rate hike november this year. and hsbc saying we won't see a cut unless there is a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. we are not seeing that by this december lot of numbers. let's look at the asian markets. this is reaction to the data coming in. asia stocks are looking for mixed. australian assets, the asx 200 gaining .1%, the first day of gains in three, but this should be viewed with a degree of caution as they could react to december lows. seeing the aussie dollar edging
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higher, up .1%. the -- there is a 39% chance of the aussie dollar will touch $.66 with economic headwinds building up for australia. in japan discretionary shares are weighing the most. the nikkei to death -- the nikkei 225 going up. tech players are among the best players in tokyo as well as sold. sk hynix climbing despite missing earnings estimates, rising as much as 3%. they note lower smart phone shipments appear inevitable, they will recover in the second half. nico on, -- nikon, verizon have set -- and fujifilm gaining ground as the american subsidiary got upset printing plates. and tokai carbon rose as much as 4%, extending recovery after
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losing 47% in the last three months of 2018. the president told bloomberg customers in japan have agreed prices for theof first half prices for the first half of 2019. shery: let's get to first word news. reporter: the aussie dollar was the worst-performing developed nation currency last year and next that -- is set to extend as the ability -- the real estate debt mounts. every cut could be more likely with the aussie folly to $.66 -- falling to $.66. the household to debt income in theell 189% from 67% 1990's. china's senior leadership approved a new high-tech board at the shanghai exchange, boosting inclusion of science and tech companies and to support reach innovation. the report was announced by
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president xi a year ago and is going to help amid an official crackdown on borrowing. to have moreted news in the coming days. the drone that shutdown new work liberty airport came close to hitting a united airlines plane. the client -- the pilot had been warned a craft was in the area but says it came within 30 feet of his ring -- his right wing. delays.ggered lengthy drones also shutdown london heathrow and london gatwick. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: bank indonesia said the outlook at the federal reserve prompted its decision to hold rates unchanged at 6%. man is at the fort -- yvonne man is in jakarta with more.
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yvonne: what a year it has been for indonesia. we were talking about how the year, the capital coming back into the country after several rate hikes from bank indonesia. let's bring in the governor himself joining us in jakarta. thank you for joining us. what a volatile year it has been from bank indonesia. how is this year shaping up? about our optimist economic outlook. we will be looking at our economic growth to 5.4%. right now it is 5.2%. [indiscernible] we are looking below [indiscernible] 3.5%. it is quite robust. [indiscernible]
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quite significant inflows. of course we will continue support our policy, housing and continue our economic growth. yvonne: you have sure of the need to be ahead of the fed and ahead of the curve. -- stressed the need to be ahead of the fed and ahead of the curve. the rupiah rebounded from last year's loans. there are funds in the bond market. is this a testament you got settings right? perry: we have quite sound framework, and we continue to be [indiscernible] we will continue to optimize our policy [indiscernible] to support our stability of the economy and support our economic [indiscernible] policy tontinue our ensure how stability of the economy remains intact.
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[indiscernible] rate on thee lower deficit. yvonne: can you breathe a little easier now? the reason we saw outflows was the current account deficit. is that under control? perry: [indiscernible] i think last year [indiscernible] 3.8 -- about 3% of gdp. this year [indiscernible] then we are looking [indiscernible] about 2.5% of gdp. more robust economy. keepingyou have been pace with the federal reserve. we heard a change of tone from mr. powell and his colleagues signaling they might be less inclined to hike rates in 2019. did that change anything for
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bank indonesia in any way? in recent weeks you have talked about how the key rate here has near its peak right now. how firm is that view? perry: we continue to update our monetary policy with global economy as well as how normalization of the fed will be developing over the year. before we are forecasting the fed will increase three times this year but when we are looking at the later fomc, [indiscernible] increasing by two times this year, one time this year, even though we know markets are forecasting only one time. but to be cautious we are putting two times. yvonne: so is the run rate for bank of indonesia hikes over? perry: of course we will continue to update that.
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in our latest increase in november, basically real already [indiscernible] the price and the increase [indiscernible] in december and march. i think we already [indiscernible] and for looking when we make the decision after increased our policy rates in november. of know lower possibility hiking, you know [indiscernible] this will put our policy rate [indiscernible] you know, near the big. that is the forward guide we are keeping to the market. yvonne: is there scope for a cut? perry: it is difficult to say at the moment. [indiscernible] our framework of monetary policy be transferred.
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we will continue updating our outlook and indication and the direction of our policy rate. yvonne: are you focused toward -- you shifted to civility -- is there now more room to switch it back to more on growth? especially ahead of an election? perry: we are employing the , whileof monetary policy monetary policy focusing on stability. our macroimizing producer to support growth. for example even though our policy rate is expressive, but we assure first [indiscernible] for the bank to continue lending -- yvonne: real quickly, you talked about the rupiah being
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undervalued. what is the appropriate value, you think? perry: [indiscernible] on a number of indicators of the fundamentals, whether increasing [indiscernible] and other aspects. [indiscernible] that is why we see the rupiah still undervalued. yvonne: what about the election? perry: besides being a better democracy, we will be seeing the election will be run smoothly and continue that way, i think. yvonne: thank you for joining us . that was of course the bank of indonesia central-bank governor joining us in joe jakarta -- there.yvonne man let's stay on central-bank watch. on the heels of the bank of japan, three more major central banks making decisions thursday.
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our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays is here with the bank of korea, bank of megara and ecb. a hold after the city hike last month. kathleen: absolutely, but the trade war is inescapable especially for the fifth biggest exporter in the world, korea, 11th largest economy, which many say punches above its weight. china and the u.s., you can see why this is a dark cloud especially after growth slowed last year. that they at the fact are keeping their key rate at 1.75% as exports are getting weaker already. you can see a top and bottom chart. one is looking the first 20 days of the year. you could see a drop of nearly 15% on a monthly basis, not bad.
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it is an ominous signal. also consider this, that the south korean economy grew at its slowest rate in six years in 2018 even though there has been a lot of government spending, pump priming. no surprise that korea is sitting tight, seeing how all of this plays out. haidi: malaysia shares grew when it came to exports, but they have another vulnerability, falling oil prices. is there a situation when bank mcgarr could cut rates -- kathleen: some have chattered they haven't moved that in and a year. even though the chancellor rate cut is kind of slim, it is being discussed. here you can see inflation is falling. that is another reason for them to sit tight, gives them more leeway. falling oil prices, a vulnerability.
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all of this is an issue. they asiane to show central banks and the european central bank because the ecb is meeting as they are seeing downside risks. it is the fact the euro area economy has slowed, the imf downgraded germany am a france and italy. even though they are getting ready to reintroduce targeted loan programs to offset bond purchases, there is talk of divergence between the fed and the ecb and the rest of the world including asian nations. maybe it is less strong. it will be interesting to get the results of the bank of korea and others to see how the european central bank goes. mario draghi follows meetings in asia. haidi: thank you, kathleen hays. let's more to come -- lots more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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asia, i am daybreak haidi -- this is "daybreak asia." shery: glenn young can says the u.s. economy is growing -- slowing in terms of growth but not stalling. he spoke to bloomberg in davos. wewe are blessed because have a big portfolio and we can see the world through this portfolio and don't have to take a day to day look. we are looking over 5, 6 years. we have seen an economy that is slowing in terms of growth but not stalling by any means. synchronized growth last year, another is synchronized slowdown, it is not really think were nice. the u.s. economy is strong right now. there are good underpinnings. everyone has their i on china. that country is dealing with
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something they have never had -- their eyes on china. china is dealing with a slowdown driven by consumer confidence and of -- remember, the economy we know that was china was all export driven. it has transformed over 10 years to one that yes -- that has a huge driver of their own consumption. now they are like american or european consumers that can express worry. they put their wallets away. reporter: the chinese consumers have been the reason why carlyle has been active in china. are the trade tensions between the u.s. and china affecting your access to chinese assets, and/or your relationship with chinese lp's? >> in the grand scheme, no. we are valued as a partner in every business we are in. one of the reasons why we were
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fortunate enough to have a chance to invest in what are the mcdonald's franchises in hong kong and china is because of our experience as an investor. the short answer is no. the long answer is tensions are high. both sides recognize it is critical to get to a deal, for all the reasons we talked about. consumerlocks chinese confidence. it helps unlock growth in the chinese economy which has a knock on effect to global growth. we see a lot happening with regards to trade. --are reasonably optimistic not next week, it will be fits and starts and the market will go up and down because the market gets the next day. but there will be an arrangement. haidi: that was the carlyle group co-ceo with erik schatzker.
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china is to have its first shake shack. they will -- mainland china is to have its first shake shack. it is the latest push into the asian market. we are joined by the ceo. angratulations on what is monumental expansion. i am curious how you viewed the competition. is there a disadvantage given this is a market with a sophisticated consumer and you um brandsg brands -- y and mcdonald's that have been there since the 1980's? randy: thank you for having us. this is a realization of a dream. regarding competition, we didn't invent a hamburger in the u.s. and we won't the last to make a good one. what we have always done is raise the level of expectation. as you have seen the chinese consumer expect more from the
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quality of their food, where it is from and the experience, that is what shake shack has always answered. it has resonated around the globe. we are in 13 countries, opened in hong kong last year. we have big aspirations for china starting in shanghai. haidi: quality is of you have always focused on including issues of antibodies in beef, gtmo -- eef -- non-gmo products. how will you do that in china? randy: that is the most important thing we have worked on. we have been successful, and it was important to start in hong kong. we were able to start. the number one thing here is making sure our food is safe and we can do it with the same way.
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when you taste that berger today it taste like mattis when -- madison square park in new york. we have gone to great lengths to make certain acts and tastes like that. when you come here it feels like medicine -- madison square park. everything on your program, everything you are listening to is this moment in our world, china,lly the u.s. and so much division. people need a place to hang out. i don't care if you are american or chinese. you need a place to go with your friends and that is what we have always been. it is a community gathering place to get a burger and a beer and enjoy. you mentioned divisions. poetry -- .hery: you mentioned divisions patriotic chinese consumers will boycott american brands when tensions rise. are you concerned?
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randy: i don't think so. the consumer continues to embrace and love great american brands for we have seen that with chinese visitors to our shacks around the world. we are not concerned. if we do our job and take care of people one burger at a time we are confident people will embrace the brand regardless of any macro conditions we do. hospitality begins one-on-one. our team is ready to take care of the chinese consumer in an amazing way that we hope is really embraced, and i expect it will be. shery: he mentioned hong kong as well as a prelude to the china push. -- you mentioned hong kong as a prelude to the china. did you adjust to the local tastes and will you do so for the mainland? randy: it is a great question. we have two shacks, among the busiest in the entire world,
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setting crazy records for demand. we are proud of that. it has been less than a year, and it has been embraced at the highest level. when you think of how that aplies here, we have learned lot. what we have learned over the years going laces is people -- places is people don't want us to be a chinese version, they want us to be shake shack. they want us to do what we do around the world. the menu is the same. it feels like shake shack. is look for the local baker, arches and all analis -- cardizem -- producers, little candies on the concrete, that is part of our , and we will do a lot of listening to the consumer. as tastes evolve and they ask for certain things, we will bring that and involve shake core here to focus on the
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and innovate around that and make sure it is received. shery: take you much, the shake shack ceo speaking to us from shanghai. we have breaking news, the bank of korea has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. this was widely expected. we have seen concerns from the governor about the external risks to keep a policy of accommodative. you see not a lot of movement when it comes to the korean won as it was largely expected. this coming after 25 basis point hike at the last meeting in november. bloomberg economics suspects the central bank is set for a long pause. given the slower pace of tightening by the federal reserve, that could give more room for the bok to hold study. but we did get fourth-quarter gdp numbers out of south korea really big estimates growing 1%.
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external risks still there and the bok loving rates steady at one point -- 1.75%. not a lot of impact on the korean won. let's look at the broader markets. sophie: taking a look at what we are previewing when china and hong kong open, casino operators will be in focus after las vegas reported disappointing fourth-quarter results. and they will downplay concerns for the outlook on macau. chinese internet players could be in the crosshairs after china singled out a news service and shattered thousands of apps in three weeks. this casino will boost to a five-year high as china pushes for more oil. kamaruddin.e before we go to bloomberg markets asia with the china open , let's look at how markets are
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trading in the asia-pacific after the whipsaw session on wall street and concerns of global growth and earnings expectations being higher, weighing on sentiment. the nikkei seeing downside .3% in the wake of the bank of japan decision. the kospi is holding steady, the bank of korea held their policy rate steady as well. australia seeing modest gains. shery: and other asian futures, we are seeing upside for taiwan after the losses in the previous session. this after asian stocks fell for the last two sessions. let's see how we fair as the markets open in asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: 9:00 in hong kong and in shanghai, this is bloomberg markets china open. david: asian chipmakers defying the gathering gloom, they see an uptrend in demand and are leading the way in tokyo and seoul. rishaad: offering a rebuke to president trump's protectionist views. david: the shanghai exchange raises its game with a high tech board. it sees a financing and it will boost innovation. ♪
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