tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg January 23, 2019 11:00pm-12:00am EST
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selina: i'm selina wang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, tesla shares stumbled -- the carmaker announces it is cutting back on the production of the model x. will profitability once again come under pressure for the company? plus, uber makes a splash at the world economic forum in davos, giving new details about the self-driving car units. we will bring you the highlights of our conversation.
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china is set to become the world's biggest retail market this year thanks to online spending. we explore why e-commerce remains strong in the region. first to the top story, tesla shares have plummeted after the electric carmaker announced it has reduced the number of hours it is producing model three sedans and model x crossovers. the move has added to concerns about demands that tesla's higher price and more profitable vehicles. tesla has gotten rid of the option for customers to order the vehicles equipped with entry-level batteries. ouring us now with more, correspondent. a breakdown for us and what you are hearing from your sources? reporter: workers at the tesla factory last week were concerned that layoffs were in the works, because they had heard concerns that productions would be laying off. last friday musk sends in a male saying he was laying off 7% of the workforce. this is the first time that layoffs are hitting production workers, not just salaried
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like sales and hr, but people actually in the factory. xe are hearing that s and production is being cut back. it's not that surprising because they did drop the lower-priced model and know all efforts are on the model three. selina: is all this a sign that the challenges of scaling up, sailing at high prices, delivering large margins, is it coming to a head? reporter: it seems to be. the model s and model x have been out for a while. went intos first production in 2012. it is a seven-year-old car. those who want a model s have one already. the demand for those cars may not be as strong as it used to be. the price difference between the lowest price model s and three is not as wide. selina: they had a pricing cut, so it seems like demand is coming to a ceiling. reporter: perhaps. we will find out more when tesla report earnings. how many model s's and x's do
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they plan to make this year? is it still 100,000? we have not gotten forward-looking guidance for the year. selina: musk said in europe and october china might see a slowdown in the u.s.. now we are seeing economic slowdowns in china and weak retail sales. will this hurt the prediction? reporter: china has always been a wild card for tesla because of tariffs and the trade war but , tesla is a strong brand. now everyone is concerned about the chinese auto market slowing down. is tesla going to be able to cut through that or not? how fast are they going to get the gige factory up and running? selina: we saw apple hurt by china revenue forecasts. is there a sense that for tesla that the growing nationalism in china in addition to the economic slowdown could hurt numbers? reporter: it could. i don't think we have a clear indication yet. tesla got a very warm reception when it went to shanghai for this gige factory groundbreaking. the sense is that they are starting to build this factory to start producing there. selina: how did the factory factor in?
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you have job cuts, production slow down and a huge come up billion dollar plan in shanghai. reporter: we still don't have a lot of details as to how it's being financed. the rumor is it is through local chinese debt, but we don't know the terms or which banks. they have to build the plant in order to avoid the tariff issue, which makes the cars really cost prohibitive in china. selina: we had some recent negative analyst reports on tesla. tesla keeps on getting beat some of the chairs keep falling after each bit of news. reporter: for a long time, the tesla narrative is it is a high-growth company, they spend a lot, but they are growing because there is off the hook demand for the product. now the demand question is really up for grabs. it is the first time tesla has pulled back on production. selina: when we talk about production, how much of the layoff is actually increasing efficiency at tesla, and how much of it is we just can't sell enough cars? reporter: that is a good question. we don't have details from the state of california yet as to
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which positions were cut, but certainly production hours and production go hand in hand. on the one hand if you become efficient, you don't need as much labor, but you don't need as much labor if you don't make as many cars. selina: when you talk to sources who are still at the company what is morale like? , reporter: it's pretty bad. in june, elon musk laid off 9%, saying it was hard and he would have to do it so he would never have to do it again. seven months later, he is laying off another 7%. a lot of these folks made it through the first round of layoffs in thinking they were june safe and they turned down other job opportunities so it came as a real surprise. selina: in that announcement, elon musk said it will be a difficult road ahead. what are some of the turning point we are expecting to see in 2019? reporter: they need to get this $35,000 car that they have been promising since march 2016 out the door. until that car is out, they will be in real trouble because that is what people have been waiting for for years. they already sold the
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higher-priced versions everyone in the u.s. that they can. selina: dana hull, great job breaking this news. hulu is responding to netflix cost -- netflix's price hikes by lowering the cost of subscription spread they cut the price of the entry-level ad supported product by 25% to just six dollars a month. last week, netflix raised the cost of its most popular plan to $13 a month. coming up top tech leaders , gathering at the world economic forum in davos to define priorities for the global industry. the top themes of this year's forum, next. if you like bloomberg news, check us out on the radio. listen at bloomberg.com and in the u.s. on sirius xm. this is bloomberg. ♪
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selina: investor bill smead says financial euphoria episodes are a common occurrence in the market. when a new one comes along, they accelerate enthusiasm at the end. in his latest notes, he peakedns if the stocks last year and wonders if the current rally of netflix and amazon could be part of the process of bottoming. joining us from seattle, the chief investment officer of smead capital. let's talk about the recent decline in the popular text docs -- tech stocks over the past four months. is this just a temporary interruption? bill: you never know anything absolutely in the investment business. that is the beauty of it. you make your money because you can look really foolish in six
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months. let me take my best crack at it. the last time tech dominated the stock market in the u.s. this much was in late 1999 and early 2000. in that prior four years, growth has outperformed value by 50%. we got there four months ago. it's interesting amazon and netflix topped out at the same spread microsoft and cisco and intel topped out in late 1999 and early 2000. selina: what does this mean for investors like yourself and asset allocators who need exposure to large u.s. equities? bill: if people paid some attention to what jack vogel said three or four months ago, it was starting to trouble him how much concentration of wealth had developed in the s&p 500 index and etf's that concentrate on tech and growth, because what
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will happen, let's say you have a cheap tech stock you like, and it is not one of the stocks that is part of the mania yet it is , in the index and the etf's. if the big-name ones go into the extended bear market and stay depressed for an extended period of time, your shares will get net liquidated even though you are not part of the problem. it could be an interesting fiasco if it's anything like what happened in 2000. selina: in your recent report, you spend a lot of time talking about dead stocks, stocks that may spend the next 10 years or more getting back to their euphoria peak time. what are the current dead stocks? bill: it is funny, there are always two kinds of dead stocks in a mania. we might not be the end of the mania. for a long-term investor with a five to 10 year outlook, it will
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end by then unless all economic history will be rewritten. the two kinds of dead stocks are the ones that their business never ends up being really great. they are the geocities, aol, the total disasters out of the tech bubble. simplicity, kmart, out of the nifty 50 bubble in those are 1972. dead. not only are they dead people , will never have the chance to get that money back. i focus on the great companies, people have good reason for having long-term confidence like coca-cola, disney, mcdonald's. what you do, your stock gets smashed in the bear market, then you go for 10 to 20 years of purgatory where your stock never makes it back to the prices it was before the decline started. in the piece we wrote this week, called "we see dead stocks," we compared intel, cisco, and microsoft to amazon and netflix and just asked that question. microsoft was the big winner. they got back to their old high in 16 years from the peak, i
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think december 23, 1999, getting back to the old high. 16 years of the stock going absolutely nowhere. not because the company didn't succeed, not because it's not a great company, not because they didn't have a great total adjustable market, just because the stock had too much enthusiasm. selina: what about amazon and netflix? have they already peaked? if the history of the markets is any indication, on this decline from 2000 and amazon, you see a lot of people going on tv and saying this is just a temporary correction, just like the corrections they have had through the last 20 years and it could double in three years. if you want to stock the bottom, you want all the analysts took -- to cut their rating, you want everyone to go on tv and say "i never want to own this stock again," and you probably have a bottom. we are not there in any way, shape, or form.
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in many ways, people are more excited about them than before they dropped. selina: speaking of netflix, hulu recently lowered prices after netflix raised prices. is this enough to improve hulu's competitive positioning? how do you see the streaming competition shaking out? bill: you don't want to get me started there. the disney corporation and comcast corporation, they've got 30 or 40 years of creating content. i love this. these two johnny-come-latelys come in to produce content, and everyone knows money only goes into hollywood, it never comes out. this idea that they will make all these wonderful shows like these companies that worked at it for 40 or 50 years, it might happen, but the problem is those stocks are priced as if that's not only going to happen, but they will go to the sky on top of that. selina: amazon has surprisingly positive earnings. ibm did.
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texas instruments gave a weak forecast. what are your expectations for the upcoming big tech earnings like apple, amazon, facebook, google? bill: it is a pretty good guess. if i'm running apple and the stocks move from 220 down to 155 and people have bailed out, i would shovel whatever bad news into this report that i could put in. clean the slate for the following year. what we are watching on apple -- by the way, apple is depressed in price and looks reasonably priced, but what i want to see, i want to see if the directors are calling up their brokers and going into the online account to buy shares themselves and filing with the sec. i don't want just buffett buying it, i want to see them. in the case of amazon and netflix, it works the reverse. in other words, it's almost more of a curse if the results are fantastic, because when you are trading at 80 times earnings, coca-cola's earnings were fantastic in 1972. so were disney's, but that did
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not stop their p/e ratio from contracting for the following 10 years. who on the planet is left to love these? what analyst is left to tout them and raise the price target? there could be more out there, but it would surprise me. selina: thank you, bill smead. i enjoyed reading your report. we will be on the lookout for the next the ceo of smead one. capital management. thank you. the world economic forum is underway in davos, switzerland and tech is at the center of conversation. top tech executives including sheryl sandberg and uber's ceo khosrowshahi joined several world leaders to address global problems. our global editor of global technology brad stone sent us this report. reporter: transportation was on the agenda at the world economic forum in davos this week. i sat down for a panel discussion with the uber ceo, the ups ceo, and boeing ceo. there were no regulators on the
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panel, so all three ceos were able to wax optimistically about the future of mobility. we talked about autonomous driving, air taxis, drones, the hyperloop. all three of them are eager to change how people view companies and to bring new solutions to moving around within cities and between cities and around the world to their customers. it's difficult to pinpoint one consistent theme when it comes to technology at the world economic forum in davos this week. the topics of discussions have ranged widely from the impact of facial recognition to privacy in the digital age to the demographics of the gig workforce. devils always provides an opportunity for ceos to signal -- davos always provides an opportunity for ceos to signal their virtues. marc benioff is talking about responsibility he believes ceos have to give back to the community. bill gates is here talking about his objectives in terms of global health.
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sheryl sandberg is here talking about the way in which she thinks publishers can succeed on the facebook ecosystem. last year, there was a clear sense that tech ceos were here to apologize for the impact they had on democracy. this year, there is a prevailing sense that the world's problems, dysfunction in washington, d.c., the brexit stalemate in the u.k., that the world's problems have eclipsed the problems of silicon valley. this is brad stone from bloomberg reporting from the world economic forum in davos. selina: much more coming up. as a reminder, bloomberg technology is live streaming on twitter. check us out. be sure to follow our global breaking news network @tictoc on twitter. this is bloomberg. ♪
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selina: open force event streaming platform joined the unicorn club tuesday, announcing a $125 million in funding. the latest round led by sequoia capital brings the company to a $2.5 billion valuation. confluent works with companies like audi, jp morgan, and priceline to transport massive volumes of data between applications. here to discuss more is mike. for a long time, investors ignored this category of open source software because they couldn't get past the free part. what has changed? mike: the companies have really changed. the early open source models were about taking free software and selling support services. if something broke or went wrong, you would call someone up and they would tell you how to
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get out of a jam. modern open source companies mean some part of his free and some parts are paid for the parts that are paid for. the parts that are paid for her features large corporations need to use to operationalize software. that has created a new revenue model for these open source companies. selina: is it profitable? mike: it is not, not yet. confluent do,oes and out of the compared to other startups in the space and amazon, which has a competing product? mike: the basic idea is 10 years ago, companies ignored data. today, data is the lifeline of companies. it is how fundamentally decisions are made all the time -- the tricky part is data is created everywhere. every time you tap a mobile app, or step on the accelerator in a car, you are creating data. lots of different parts of organizations need the data to do their job. a product designer might need to know how often you push the accelerator. a marketer might want to know how frequently you click on the mobile app. those people in the company need
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to have that data. something needs to connect them. if you connect everything one by one, you get a mess of spaghetti of data in your corporations. confluent are the roadways that connect creators of data, publishers, and subscribers to analyze it and understand what's happening. selina: open source software has been a hot space for m&a. we had ibm, another was acquired after it went public. are you expecting to see more of that? mike: i don't know if you will see more m&a, but you will see a lot more primetime open source companies. the fundamental reason is because the software, or part of the software, is visible and free, corporations that are customers trust they don't have lock in anymore. unlike the old days of oracle or microsoft where you had to buy it from them, the openness gives a level of comfort. you also have an entire community behind it creating and innovating. rather than being focused on the
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employees of the one provider of software, you have a community around it, so the pace of development is much quicker. you are seeing open source momentum driving across many applications. selina: and 2018 was a very successful year. several exit like ad yen. what is in the pipeline for 2019? mike: we have to be a little quiet about what's in the pipeline. we have some companies that are exciting. slack is one of them. we have a company called data dog in the data monitoring business. that is quite mature. uentluence itself -- confl itself is a good company. we are lucky enough to have a good portfolio right now. selina: on the note of slack, why go for a direct listing versus an ipo? >> we can't talk about timing specifically, but generally the idea of a direct listing is relatively interesting for a certain type of company. obviously, the direct listing means you don't go through an underwriting process and you
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sell shares directly to the public. there are no lockups. there is no dilution. for a company that is cash rich like spotify and also has high brand recognition, so they don't need the benefit of a roadshow like an ipo, direct the stings -- listings are useful. there are a number of companies that have matured who have the same cash richness and brand recognition that can utilize direct listings. it is a good way to go public. selina: we are seeing the government shutdown delay ipo's for some companies. uber and lyft are expected to go public this year. are you seeing that impact your portfolio at all? mike: in tech, not so much. most companies that go public either don't need cash at all or just need it for a rainy day. like for insurance or m&a. if your business is not particularly cash hungry, like all of these companies i mentioned fitting into that category, i don't think going public this month or next month is necessary. you have to figure out some
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point, the government will figure it out and the markets will reopen. selina: what do you see as the biggest risk to the tech factor -- sector this year? regulation, geopolitical concerns? mike: at the end of the day as much as we love tech, it's a byproduct of the general economy. if the economy is doing well, people will spend more money on tech. if the economy slows down, it's challenging. looking at the global economy, the big powers are the u.s. and china. the u.s. economy is in great shape. i expect that to continue. china is a little softer, so you worry a little bit. most startups do not sell a lot to china. at least right now, the prospects look good. selina: mike volpi, general partner, thank you. coming up, a new report from a marketer outlining why china's e-commerce growth is still booming despite an economic slowdown in the region. this is bloomberg. ♪ amazon prime video is now on xfinity x1.
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its all included with your amazon prime membership. that's how xfinity makes tv... simple. easy. awesome. >> this is bloomberg technology. we join daybreak australia to bring you the latest in global technology news. >> i am heidi. let us get the top global tech stories. >> since january 3, they deleted appsthan 9300 smartphone because of information that was harmful. is planning toit invoke ethical principles for -- patient record managing
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facial recognition technology. their time for new legislation. the company is physically focused on killing the scientific technology. intrusion into democratic freedoms. tryingnch government is -- this is according to a french lawmaker involved with drafting the regulation. this is for full-scale commercialization of the five you network by 2020. those are the top global tech stories. back to you in san francisco. >> china will edge of the u.s. as the biggest retail market in the world this year. that is from a research forum: eu marketer. -- called e-marketer. for more, we are joined by andrea.
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andrew. china is outpacing the u.s. despite the trade war and economic slowdown. >> we sell retail growth in excess of a percent. --are bring that down bringing that down. that is running ahead of gdp growth. that is a strong growth rate on a very large number for china. a big part of what is driving it is the continuing growth of the middle class. particularly in tier three markets and more rural areas. come online and engage in commerce for the first time. >> a great deal of that has to do with mobile penetration. at what point do is seek some semblance of saturation and china?
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andrew: one out of every three dollars will be transacted online. that number for mobile commerce surpassed 80%. $10 with having the presenters. that is feeling a lot of the growth we are seeing. if you look at the context of all of retail, it will push upwards of 30% of all spending. i spoke to the alibaba president. he said that big-ticket items are slowing on the platform. other areas are still going strong. is that a broader trend that you are seeing in e-commerce in china? andrew: that will affect big-ticket purchases. we saw slowdown in the smartphone market already. we are seeing the u.s. bolstered by high ticket prices. i think the reverse is happening in china.
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>> for the longest time, it felt like alibaba had a head scratching moment when it comes to international expansion and how to replicate a very structurally domesticated chinese phenomenon. i want to pull out this graphic that i found intriguing. this is more than double the entire u.s. population. i am wondering, if you look at statistics like this, do these companies and china need overseas markets? need overseas markets? will surpass $1 trillion. that is incredible to think about. that is not all fall into their revenue. it is a huge amount of volume happening on this platforms. do they need the other markets? no.
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of interneta lot companies, they extend into southeast asia. they get harder and harder as they speak about other markets in europe and north america. >> the data shows that the smallest players are starting to get into alibaba businesses. you can see this reach almost $70 billion in sales in 2018. what are these smaller layers doing? -- players doing? andrew: the market as a whole is growing. this is a really good example. it is like groupon on steroids. it took this group buying phenomenon and transformed it into this rural and tier three market. they are well aligned with this growing segment. fueled incredible
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growth. if the company was founded in 2015 a few years ago and will already take 7% of e-commerce market in china almost overnight. >> despite the economic slowdown in china and growing nationalism, are you seeing retailers want to double down in that market to reach those large growing middle-class consumers that you are talking about? andrew: i think that it is a double-edged sword. the complexity of going into china can always be difficult. a lot of people always want to -- a lot of companies want to go into that market. they always find it more complicated than anticipated. they will continue to try. i don't know how successful it will be. we will have to watch what happens there. >> what is the next big thing that we are not already talking about? is something that
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is new and novel and taking off. are we going to see more of these new flavors of retail? not just that target this segment but the gimmicks that precipitate a new form of buying. usually we have a success story. willis the next one that take shape? will he take place in china, will we see copycats in the rest of the world? >> thank you, andrew. thank you very much for joining us. much more coming up on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> amazon, in a move to improve its delivery service will test a fleet of robots in the seattle suburbs. the commerce giant announced amazon scales -- and economists -- autonomous delivery device the size of a cooler. it will navigate around obstacles such as people and pets. as the world population tops 7 billion people, they are figuring out how to identify and track people around the world. governmentpact benefits, financial services and jobs. if you discuss is olivia white. she is the lead author of this report. what is a digital id and what its objectives?
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people whore are have no form of legal identification. they cannot interact with their government. they can't open a bank account. four or 5 billion people in the world have ideas. have id's.-- i forget passwords regularly. what we wanted to do was say given those challenges, what is the benefit of an identification that can allow you to identify yourself through digital channels in a high identification -- authen tification way. >> it has had pretty mixed results. where has it been successful? olivia: there are different stages. if you look at estonia, a small
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country. they have all of their population using a digital id. on the larger side, india has 1.2 billion people on a digital identification system. >> extending full digital id unlock 3% of gdp. how does that happen? world, is the developing we look at seven countries. brazil, china, ethiopia, nigeria, the u.s. and the u.k.. there are six kinds of ways in which individuals interact and where value can be created. i interact as a consumer with a company. another is i contract as a worker with my employees. sometimes i act as a taxpayer or sometimes i will just be a citizen. >> this is the world's largest
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id program. it was shown to be compromised. what are some of the greatest risks when it comes to identity fraud? >> there is this potential for enormous good that can be unlocked by digital id. there is the risk of miscues. .- misuse there is potential to unleash a huge amount of potential value. there is a potential for downside if it is in the wrong hands. there are things like the right legal framework and really careful control. user consents are incredibly important. they are the things needed to allow the benefit to be realized. >> they have called digital id is one of the greatest risks to human privacy. how do the governments limit that downside? >> what governments need to look
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at as for the full digital world are similar. there are lots of governments int are currently working the u.k. or california. this is around how data can be shared and what sort of consent people need to give in order to get those benefits. can help but they are not the solution alone. you need the legal framework and the right governments. >> what are some of the differences in developing economies versus developed economies? olivia: it is a tremendous opportunity for leapfrogging developing countries. incomewomen in low countries don't have a legal form of identification. compared to 30% of men.
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you have this huge gender gap. there are instances where not enough people are included. digital id provides this mechanism for inclusive growth and allowing people access to the digital world. >> how will these technologies like facial recognition, they are print scanning, iris scanning? -- how they affected? -- affect it? olivia: those technologies really need to go along with the right protections for their use. >> in what countries have you seen a private and public partnership helped to achieve this digital identity program? good andstonia is a interesting example. the government is the real driver. oft they do the dissipation the private sector, tremendously. then you have a country like sweden.
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in sweden, there is identification -- an identification program that was started by a consortium of banks. they have worked together to establish this program that has been used for different public purposes. >> thank you for joining us. facesahead, enter capital its diverse of the gap head on. how they want to take on the silicon valley boys club and put more women in these seats. this is bloomberg. ♪
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device as he was landing the plane. it grew on a second flight operated by united airlines made a similar report three hours later. in 2017, just 50% of venture funding went to female founders. that is according to this nonprofit organization dedicated to diversity in funders and founders. they are doubling the percentage of female partners in venture firms over the next 10 years. founders sat down with -- the founders in studio 1.0 and asked about tariffs basing this regulation in technology. >> the tariffs that our government has put in place are, in the long-term -- maybe this is my economist background speaking. they are ruinous for our economy, the global economy as well. when we think about prices going
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up, both for direct goods and the supplied goods, the components -- these are unnecessary price changes. the only beneficiary of that is nobody that needs to have that money. putlieve that the tariffs in place are anti-capitalism. they will, in the long-term, negatively affect gdp around the world. >> i wonder if these countries have shot themselves in the foot. if you look at a company like facebook, is the damage self-inflicted question mark -- self-inflicted? maha: one opportunity is it creates windows or new startups. if there is a startup that is going to promise certain things , iund fantasy or your data
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think we have learned a lot about social media in the past five or 10 years. aileen: this is part of the cycle of distraction of technology. from the predecessors. you come up with new products. learn from the predecessors and you come up with new products. >> where mark zuckerberg and his predecessors go wrong? cost -- profit at any cost. sacrifice alling to lot of their principles for the almighty dollar and share price. >> sheryl sandberg has been heavily criticized for whatever shortcomings she may have had. do you think that criticism has been fair russian mark do think that criticism has been disproportionate? -- do think that
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criticism has been fair? do think that criticism has been disproportionate? issue being criticized more because she is a woman? >> it is not binary. she is the chief business officer of the company. there are a lot of business issues -- is this decisions and policy decisions that fall under her purview. if you look at politics in particular right now and you look at how females in office are being viewed by the media or by the public, there is clearly a double standard. >> where are the double standards? elon musk can cry or smoke during an interview. can women do that? >> no. >> no. >> what do you think? #fundingsecure. >> realistically, we are on a
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continuum of integrating women into different roles in different businesses. while we are on the path to carving that opportunity out, we are held to a higher standard. >> i am wondering if we are --ng this to the detriment our detriment, societies detriment. melissa meyer was so picked apart. where is she now? >> there has to be acknowledgment that we are not all uniform. one woman does not equal the next does not equal the next. there are different styles, our personalities are very different. that doesn't mean we can't come together and produce something that is excellent. in fact, it means that we can come together and do great things. >> the other thing that has changed in the past year, i'm starting to see this. we are seeing more men stand up and call these things out. >> ice -- i think it is exciting to see more men stand up and
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talk about these issues. amazon. is talk about worried about you standards for text? i don't think it will be interesting and good for us to have a world of five different choices. it will be about why do the regulations exist? understand it, it is to protect the consumer. it is definition of what is protecting the consumer. kirsten: if it has been about price and access -- we're running into interference about how those companies -- if it appear with us. i think that may need to be rich lord about what the standards are that govern the way we think about when a company is too big. the macro economic slowdown, the funding could dry up. are you concerned about that? >> i am concerned about that.
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tohink that fear as opposed greed was driving a lot of the large capital raises and that people were feeling like this party has to end at some point in time. the problem is -- the benefit is that i don't to the party ending. there is a huge amount of cash in the system that is looking for returns. they are not getting it on the stock market. they are not getting it in these other markets. it is a macro issue. it will go toward high data, high innovation, high potential return. >> that was an holy's -- emily's ten andew with maha, kirs aileen. you can watch the full episode 6:30 pacific.n, that does it for this issue of
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