>> welcome to daybreak australia. ramy: we are at bloomberg world headquarters in new york. sophie: i am in hong kong. we're counting down to asia's major market open. haidi: the top stories were covering, the trade floor takes a germanic turn. -- dramatic turn. we're counting down to brexit.

the nikkei chancellors is a no deal divorce would be damaging to the economy. aluminum would be in the spotlight later on as the u.s. lifts sanctions. ramy: let's get a quick reminder of how u.s. stocks ended last week. they have all ended up in the green. s&p 500 up 9/10 of a percent. all of the major averages really follow the ups and downs of the headlines. the u.s. commerce secretary saying the u.s. and china are miles away from any kind of trade deal. we will look to this week to see what happens. the nasdaq up the most, 1.3%. semiconductor space really got a great lift come up by 5.7%. bellwetherreat because tech stocks, semiconductors and transports all getting a lift. that is a great indicator to see what could happen over the course of this week.

a lot of interesting good data points coming out in your neck of the woods. a lot of asian eco-data among what is happening with the continued slowdown in the country. sophie: chinese pmi data is due this thursday. a very busy week. we will get a global health fromup, we have earnings apple, samsung and sony and featuring u.s. china trade talks in dce ahead of which the wto is expected this monday to launch oninvestigation tariffs into -- adam that we have futures marginally higher. we have city markets closed. we are hoping haidi was able to enjoy some of the holiday. on eco-fronts this monday to have chinese industrial profits do. -- due.

this will be key when it comes to the performance of chinese corporate given the backdrop of the trade tensions. in hong kong we will see trade numbers coming in. this, after last week's warning from the imf that growth in the city was close to 2.9%, 2.5% in 2018. this morning we will be getting minutes from the boj's december meeting. in recent weeks we have heard from the boj. they have cut their inflation forecast. we will get ppi data from japan this morning as well. some corporate's also reporting from japan this monday. we will be looking out for some reaction as well. nissan, some news the heads of nissan and renault will be meeting this month. kamaruddin with a look ahead at what to expect later today. let's get you the first word

news now with su keenan in new york. facing at, theresa may potentially career-defining we can parliament. they are voting on amendments to her brexit deal. the government is resisting moves to force a delay in the march 29 divorce date rather than crash out of the eu with no agreement. brexit critics fear a no deal split will cause major disruption, economic hardship, and a return to violence in northern ireland. europe's retail is deepening with leading companies preparing to cut thousands of jobs in the face of accelerating online shopping. they are reported to be illuminating 15,000 positions and closing its delicatessen counters. a german fashion chain is going into insolvency. axing moret store is than 2.5 thousand staff. in venezuela the country has dropped its decision to drop

diplomatic ties with the u.s., saying it has agreed to maintain an intersection in the capitals. this is after i walked back from some int maduro after recognize the national assembly leader as the -- the army still supports maduro. at least 200 people are still missing in the latest disaster could brazil's mining industry. collapse, echoing a similar failure three years ago. rising water levels at another dam in the area has prompted further evacuations. they fell sharply in new york, while their bonds fell to the lowest since 2017. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. ramy: thank you very much. the u.s. andory, china will be holding a pivotal round of talks this week in an attempt to end the ongoing trade war. tom mackenzie joins us for more. how is this meeting in washington expected to play out? tom: very good question. it is of course a major week for the u.s. china trade talks. we should say that we are expecting preparatory talks between china's vice commerce minister to try and lay the groundwork for this all-important meeting, at least that is the way it has been teed china's vice premier and the trade representative robert lighthizer in washington on january 30 and january 31. what we know is the chinese have made significant proposals

around purchasing goods from the u.s. to close that trade deficit , but key issues remain around home to lecture will property -- around intellectual property. a many trump officials said, scheme awaits to their if i and enforce any agreement. it is clearly a priority for the u.s. administration. how they format will be a central part of the talks. then of course we are to get on the back of these talks, expected to ended january 31, proposals put to the president. just where president trump lies is uncertain at this stage. so, we will have to watch to see fired toare any tweets get a sense of president trump will take a hard line on china. so yes, a crucial week of talks. the chinese will be under pressure to put something new on the table it seems. haidi: in the meantime the wto

is expected to begin investigating trump's tariffs on china this week. it could certainly make talks more complicated, certainly given the trump administration's aggressive use on the wto and its failings. thees, this is a case chinese brought to the wto. it is likely to start investigations on monday. this is on the back of whether or not the u.s. has broken this most favored nation status agreement as part of the wto with these tariffs, which is that you should apply tariffs equally to all members of the wto. the chinese would say the tariffs on $250 billion worth of chinese goods is a clear misstep, or redirection of that. so that is what they are trying to address. the u.s. is saying this is separate because it involves intellectual property, which is not governed by the wto.

the u.s. is also withholding some nominations for apple it judges to this ruling -- appellate judges to this ruling body, which is slowing things down. 23 cases they are facing in the wto but there is a backlog given these judges are not being signed off on. that will also likely play into these talks, or at least overshadow them. therebefore i let you go, is this other twist and what is happening between canadian and chinese relations. what are the details we need to know? canada's prime minister justin trudeau accepting his ambassador to china, because he gave comments to reporters suggesting that the chief financial officer for huawei, who was of course detained in vancouver, is now on bail in vancouver over these allegations of bank fraud and violations of iran sanctions. the canadian ambassador suggested she had a strong case,

and also suggesting if the you up were to drop their extradition case against her, canada would be better off. so clearly those comments to not go down well in canada. there was pressure from the opposition party as well. prime minister trudeau has accepted his ambassador's resignation. china is holding to canadians here. many would see that as retaliation. they remain in jail in a secret really -- secret location. many see this as a retaliatory move. tensions between canada and china are very much on a downward spiral at this stage. haidi: tom mackenzie with the very latest looking ahead to these crucial trade negotiations this week. we will have more on the prospects for ending this trait conflict later this hour. next, the global economy faces some pivotal moments this week for sure. we will look at what markets can

expect from upcoming data. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: that is a live shot of sydney. there is no trading in australia today. monday morning we have the public holiday, the australia day holiday. a bit gloomy here in sydney. rain expected, quite a bit of humidity as well. certainly looks like the rest of the asian markets are looking on track for a positive start to the weekend. u.s. stocks rising on earnings confidence. relief as president trump put a partial end to the government shutdown for at least three weeks as negotiations continue. gains inoking at emerging markets and stocks rallying for a 5th street week. possibility --e positively. i am haidi stroud-watts here in

sydney. ramy: i'm ramy inocencio in new york. you are watching daybreak australia. the week ahead on wall street will put a big focus on the fed. new bumps in the road for all the oil bulls. su keenan joins us now. a huge week for tech earnings. seems every major name from apple to alibaba will be releasing earnings. su: you can throw in tesla and a lot of industrial giants. in terms of wall street and main it will be a very big trade. if we go right into the bloomberg to start, everything tech rebounds. this is a make or break quarter for fang, because just in the last week it had the first down week in five. these earnings could be very critical to determine the direction of this whole group. let's take a look at some big names such a report. apple, amazon, facebook.

that is a big portion of fang. we throw in alibaba because it was in the u.s. we would anbably see a next her a -- extra a on the fang part. some of these are on the bull's-eye of the trade war concerns. companiesr, boeing, with international exposure. with they have to say about what they are seeing and feeling will be informative to the markets. big drugoil companies, and pharma companies reporting. they actually have been some of the biggest momentum stocks of late. they also could add or detract from the sentiment. lastly, just a whole lot of high-profile names, from tesla to qualcomm and deutsche bank. you have seen the banks really run-up higher. a lot of the news has favor them and it is the tail end of the earnings for the banks. haidi: su, that brings us to the

fed. no expectations for a rate hike. even the ones that expect one or two this year. we are at the implications of oil as well. a new round of volatility. let's start with what we're watching for as jay powell starts for the new normal. every meeting being live and having a press conference. su: that in itself will be noteworthy. we will be able to hear his latest comments. it is widely expected they will stand pat. the city -- they pretty much said so. now with the balance sheet, what are their plans there. the bond market in particular is very focused on this. this will be very important even though no rate changes in the cards. with oil, three of the last five days have been gains for oil. the shutdown deal news on friday gave the market a big boost. if we look at the week ahead we're really getting into some currents and geopolitical

turmoil with venezuela. venezuela, let's look at the big chart. you can see how oil is really rebounding just in the past month. oil bulls are not certain if that continues. there is an upward bias continuing the supply side outages. venezuela has one of the biggest oil reserves, you have a challenge to president maduro's presidency. so it is a very bumpy ride in the week ahead in terms of how they impact. opec in the last five years has cut 50% of its output. there are both bull and bearish pressures. ramy: oil was seeing a two month high. we are seeing some positivity, if you are at least capitalizing on the higher prices of oil. joining us now is an economic cofounder.rch i'm taking a positive take on things. what do you think of where we

are headed now? do you think the consolidation we are seeing over the past few weeks is something that will give us more momentum or are we headed for another meltdown? guest: neither. [laughter] i considered them both. i do not think either one, actually. i will join you on the optimism for a moment. there is no recession imminent, so i am not having a crazy meltdown feeling. let's get that out of the way. although i think what is going on is focused on these events. is the government shutdown happening, what is xi doing, where are we with trade tensions? any of those things that could happen and we could report on them and they could change everything. the elephant in the room remains the economic cycle. these market economies, they have accelerations and decelerations. about one year ago i was on the show in us and we are starting to look the other way because

leading indicators are pointing to slowdowns. lo and behold that is what has transpired. the fed is the big one. they kind of blink at the end of last year. the markets helped them come to that conclusion. now we fully expect them to be on hold. the market which is kind of manic-depressive, equity market, oil market, they go all the way -- ramy: they are so sensitive. guest: volatile, however you want to put it. they went all the way to putting in recessions last year. probably too far. we're getting a relief rally. but it does not mean the cycle has turned. therefore i am not saying we are in an upswing yet. we are still slow. ramy: to what degree do you think we are in an upswing? hop into the bloomberg terminal because i want to show you this gtv terminal library. bloomberg intelligence has said the s&p, has noted the s&p has

hit the 50 dma. it is finding some stability right now. as long as we close above 2640, which we did friday, it would be more positive, more momentum higher. would you agree? guest: no. inertainly appreciate another's is technical charts are super important for near-term trading. that is all fully them play, i will not argue with that. where the cycle work intersects with something like s&p 500 and the risks around whatever price it is at, is when there is a growth rate cycle downturn in effect, and there is today, the risk of a correction is active. it is alive. so, we could have a 10% correction whenever you are still sitting inside of a downturn. it is still live, despite the fact the fed blinked. in 2010 we had a slowdown.

2015, slowdown. we are in a slowdown which has not ended yet. in each period, we were in the teens percent corrections which were current. they were periods draw boning as opposed to rate hiking. i do not think we -- it changes the direction of the cycle. looking at leading indicators they have not turned up yet. same goes for china. they are ongoing, doing as much stimulus as they can do. leading indicators have not turned up yet. haidi: that is kind of what is all contributing to painting a dire picture. you continue to have soft data plus the hard numbers, some leading indicators relate to trade demand out of asia looking pretty weak. imf saying global growth will be the weakest in three years.

i want to draw your attention to this chart looking at recession probabilities. you say you do not for see a recession in the u.s. this is market derived from the u.s. economy will hit recessionary conditions over the next 12 months, it has ticked above 50%. in you comfortable with that terms of how your market strategy sits? or d you think maybe the market is underpricing the possibility of a worse than expected downturn? guest: well, i know about these models, i watched those. in real-time they are not that great on getting recessions. they do them after the fact. the way that we will know if a recession is likely, a recession with spikes, and you will see on the chart sometimes it spikes very sharply, is that if the level of these leading indicators falls, that is where the growth rate goes decidedly negative for a few months. if that occurs -- and it has not

happened in the u.s. or china -- if that does occur, then in that moment of time there is a window of vulnerability where any of these shocks, a bed tweet -- bad could something else, become a recessionary shock at that moment. so far they have not been. ebb and flow and all kinds of stuff, and those have not been recessionary, just a slowdown. that is really what i'm watching. how severe does the downturn become. as of today, not recessionary in the u.s. or china. that could change in a few months and it may be that it is just not determined yet. that is just the reality of this market economy that we are all trying to guess where it is going next. haidi: wait and see, then. great to have you.

cofounder and chief operations officer there. breaking news on brexit. maypremise of theresa telling cabinet ministers she will be ruling out a no deal brexit, according to reporting in the sun. they say the premise or will not allow britain to leave the eu without a no -- without a deal. in private conversations with cabinet ministers, theresa may has told them she will not take britain out of the eu without a deal. so, looking ahead to whether that -- cabinet sources in these meetings saying the pm has made it clear she will not go for a no deal brexit. that is quite a bit of a change in tone in terms of what we were expecting to happen this week. a lot more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg.

♪ a. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. francis is the new chair of renault -- president macron called premise quicknzo abe to urge the release of former boss carlos ghosn. he sold more cars last year than volkswagen or turner ward -- toyota. opec's oil trading armoire law $700 million last year because of shifting markets. they blame the losses in part on inappropriate techniques and says it is close to uncovering a problem. unitech may have contributed to that. venezuela backtracking on

its decision to sever diplomatic ties. we will have the latest from washington in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: it is 9:30 in sydney, markets are closed for the long holiday. we have positive picture with the rest of asian trading getting underway. u.s. stocks ending in positing -- in positive territory. optimism ahead of u.s.-china trade talks in the middle of this week. no much to talk about after 35 days. -- an interim since the shutdown, after 35 days. ramy: let's get to first word news. su: the trade war is becoming more complicated with the wto

opening an investigation into president trump's tariffs on chinese goods for they asked whether the duties breached the requirements wto numbers must give equal tariff treatments as beijing deserves. the talks will begin wednesday with additional duties being imposed in march. europe will defy trump with a special purpose vehicle, allowing trade with you are on -- with iran. they hope to keep them in the 2050 nuclear agreement abandoned by washington. this was spanned between business and iran with no direct transfer of funds with the two and would theoretically reject companies from u.s. punishment. in india the interim finance minister will meet state run banks later to dismiss -- discuss the health of the

budget. the reserve bank governor is likely to attend the talks which will cover sour loans, nonperforming assets and general nonperformance in the face of $200 billion of bad debt. china is named -- has named a banking veteran as head of the securities regulation. his new role put him at the forefront of many of the duties including the $40 trillion financial system to oversee interest. and j.p.d gps -- morgan hope to follow in the security ventures. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. haidi: thank you. venezuela has abandoned its decision to cut diplomatic ties with the u.s. there has been a de-escalation

by nicolas maduro after washington and others recognized head ofido as the state. joining us is ros krasny. does this mean it is de-escalated to the potential of further sanctions or rolling out military action? ros: for the time being it looks like it has. some deepuro did thinking and moved to deescalate in the wake of stern words we heard at the united nations from secretary of state mike pompeo. i don't think he would want to get into a situation where the u.s. considers a military action . members of the trump administration, the acting chief outtaff, john bolton also saying nothing is out this -- off the table but i don't think anyone wants to see an escalation. that is the situation at the

moment. pressure on maduro is coming from more than just the u.s. the europeans made it clear saturday they would like to see new elections called quickly. the pressure campaign will continue but for the time being we might have avoided fresh sanctions. on budget talks, we are just out of the 35-day partial government shutdown. but i am not a bit skeptical that we will be back at square one in three weeks. ros: it is so true. doesn't seem like either side has changed. we talked about this for so many weeks. sounds like president trump has been on the phone over the weekend to various republican lawmakers. he hasn't said much in public over the weekend. intense.e mick mulvaney also today didn't rule out another shutdown.

the comments from republican lawmakers really don't want to see another shutdown, and one republican senator actually compared shutdown tactics to using chemical weapons. those are harsh words. i think there is a sense that president trump will certainly -- not out of the woods is what i'm trying to say, about him calling a national emergency. talks will be in full swing this week. there could be a compromise to be reached. republicans not wanting to have another bruising shutdown for which they had been blamed. ros: -- haidi: we heard news the u.s. treasury department will release sanctions linked to [indiscernible] what is the biggest impact? ros: this is the world's second

biggest aluminum company. i think to some extent this decision had been taken them a pushed back in congress from democrats and even from house republicans. once the move was going to go sanctions, i the think aluminum prices started to fall. will they continue to fall, or will this be a sell the room and by the truck situation? the truck situation? not a surprise but people withted this to go ahead the way the senate moved the last couple of weeks. ramy: ros krasny, joining us from washington, dc. thank you. on to earnings and specifically tech because it will be a big week. the u.s. and china have

importance given the trade war, apples warning earlier this month -- apple's warning earlier this month. stephen engle is taking a deeper dive into what is expected. the big one is apple. the share price is down 32% since october. what are we looking at? big week,t is a following the warning january 2 but also tmz and others coming out with weak forecasts. you can see in the u.s. i am taking a sliver of the snapshot. microsoft,comm, tesla all out wednesday in the u.s., thursday in asia. we can see asian big tech companies, alibaba listed in new york, samsung, there is the big one thursday. sony out on friday. let's start with apple as i said, lowered its first-quarter

outlook on january 2. all eyes will be on the conference call for the second quarter. tim cook cited economic weakness in china. also in the fourth quarter apple announced it would no longer disclose iphone, ipad and mac units or average prices. that was a warning to analysts. we need to know the exact source of the first quarter weakness they are expecting and how long will that last, and also any kind of inventory buildup that could put pressure in the second quarter according to our analysts. tsmc earlier.d they forecast below estimates, inerscoring a slowdown iphones and global economy. apple is its biggest customer. we will watch qualcomm and other core.kers, ald, 10

they got a sliver of hope with lam research forecasting better than-- posted better forecast results. texas instrument also in line. we see this chip space easing just a bit but chips following tsmc. they had some weakness. let's switch to microsoft. fiscal second-quarter results will be strong for msft. updating is a continuing trend. margins should improve. double-digit revenue gains expected. forward guidance will be the k -- the key. tesla will reflect much larger automobile operations with delivering the production, each rising 200% year-over-year. model three delivery to jump 45% of unit sales to 67%. backlog of model 3 a big

concern. haidi: we are also waiting for asian tech names reporting this week. alibaba and samsung are the biggest. let's start with samsung because we were talking about the chips. alibaba, i bring that up. slowest sales growth since fiscal third-quarter 2016. weak consumer sentiment is prevailing in china despite strong singles day back in november. weaker revenue will impact the bottom line. heavily in other areas, including off-line. the consumer sentiment, that will impact the results. that is a key one. the chip space and the iphones altogether. chips -- not iphones, smartphones. it is said to report the first

proper drop -- profit drop since 2018. handsets also liquid continuing their downward trend -- likely continuing their downward trend. haidi: stephen engle with a look at what to expect come a big week for earnings, and a glimpse at how the trade war and the china slowdown will play in the sector. the u.k. chancellor morning a new deal brexit would be bad for the economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

comeback. let's go to sophie kamaruddin. australia is closed for aussie day. sophie: australia is sitting this monday out but asian stocks are set to start the week with modest gains. seeing little change in new

zealand. this weekend will have a string of data from japan. we'll get retail sales and industrial output, and that could add to evidence the economy is slowing and that means reassessing outlooks. looking at the performance of the dollar-yen, this as analysts from deutsche to credit agricole have seeing -- seen the yen rising for the end of the year. the boj will shift away from easing, but the currency could lose its appeal. it is already testing technical resistance near 110. more supporting data could stem it strength. convergence,erage the bottom half of this panel, that is beginning to turn bullish with it rising above the signal line and approaching zero. we will get trade data from hong kong today. expected to

continue contracting. the housing market is up, on track for the best pace of gains in 12 months, even as mainland investors remain on the sidelines. buying momentum has reached [indiscernible] last anywhere is rally, hitting a one-year high for the housing volley. companies that track revenue from the city [indiscernible] strong buying momentum is being met by availability of cheap shares with housing remaining one of the cheapest major indices in the world, trading 10.5 times its forward 12 months earnings. shares are 7% cheaper. ramy: looking at the market open, thank you. now to davos, and the u.k. chancellor could quit the government if the country plunges out without a deal. -- out of the e.u. without a

deal. he said the risk of a new deal brexit is very real, but he is confident a compromise can be reached. >> for business leaders the deadline is only two months away. that seems awfully close. in the wake of political negotiations, we are at the phase where people are camped on their preferred outcome. too many people have not yet moved from their preferred outcome to an acceptable outcome that allows compromise. that is the process that will happen over the next days and weeks is people recognizing they can't get their preferred outcome because there isn't a majority for it. we have to find a common ground we can all accept which represents a sensible way forward for the country and projects the interests and living standards of the british people. >> is there a 30% chance we get a no brexit? >> i will not put a percentage

on it. there is a risk, and that is real and people need to remember that. people on the other side need to recognize there is a large body of opinion in parliament that would seek to avoid no deal at all costs including putting at risk brexit itself. they right answer -- the right answer is to find a compromise around a deal which avoids both of the extremes and allows britain to proceed prosperously to a sensible future relationship with the european union. >> has the cabinet thought about a second referendum? >> there are real problems around the idea of a second referendum and there is no majority in parliament. we have to focus on ideas that are likely ultimately to be supported by a majority in parliament. there is no majority for this second referendum. >> what is there a majority for?

>> at the moment nothing. parliament knows what it is against but hasn't worked out what it is for. we are at the stage of the argument where people are promoting their ideal outcome rather than compromising toward a common ground. >> if we don't find a solution or something parliament would be in favor of, would you be in favor of delaying article 50? >> that is not the government's preferred outcome. we want to leave on the 29th of march. we believe we can. the problem is this. you asked what it is that will bring able together around a compromise, and it is the clock, the sense of a deadline. if you were to remove that sense of an immediate deadline, you take the pressure off people and you will reinforce their inclination to keep promoting their preferred outcomes rather than seeking compromise. >> what it be a betrayal of the

british people? -- what it be a betrayal of that -- would it be a trial of the british people? >> i believe a no deal brexit would undermine britain's prosperity. that is not what people voted for. they heard in the referendum campaign from the leaders of the leave campaign that we could leave, get a deal with the european union, have a smooth and seamless exit. that is what the majority of people want to see. >> is it not fair to ask the people what kind of brexit they want now because it is unclear? >> it is not to me. it is clear there are majority in britain who want to see us navigate this process in good order, in an orderly way, a smooth passage to a future arrangement with the european union that allows us to continue trading together to protect jobs in the u.k., but also means we

are outside the european union delivering on and honoring the decision of the people in the referendum. haidi: let's get more on this crucial week of brexit both. .eturn to -- brexit votes jacob kierkegaard joins us. we have talked about this with you at length. this latest report says theresa may has ruled out a no deal exit from the e.u. she is not disclosing that because it would make her more of a lame-duck area one thing that came out of that conversation, what is the support for, nothing. where do we go with limited options that are available? jacob: the problem is the way you get parliament to vote in favor of something is to have the clear alternative being no deal. in terms of the negotiating

process, that is where you need it on the table. right now we are at a situation where unless something is voted in favor of positively, no deal is the default option on january 30. right now everybody is trying to manipulate it. the final deal taken on the edge of the abyss is between their preferred option and no deal. in that scenario whatever is there is an alternative to no deal and will get a majority. it is all about getting your preferred option in there. haidi: so is it kicking the can down the road, delaying the best case scenario that market participants can hope for? jacob: it is, but we should be clear part of the reason why the british government doesn't want twosk for this -- there are

reasons. local elections are in may, which might get uncomfortable for the tories if they haven't delivered brexit by that date. the other one is it is something that you has to agree to -- the e.u. has to agree to. what will they ask in return? i think they will say we can extend article 50 a couple of months may be but that is conditional on the withdrawal agreement, the legally binding component of the divorce passing parliament before hand. the allows you to have this sort of edge of the abyss vote in the british parliament probably in late march and the knowledge that unless you vote for the deal, you are going for a new deal -- no deal brexit a few months down the line. on one side, the

u.s.-china trade war on the other side. in terms of what we might be a is set to leo hu touch down, what is the best case scenario investors and analysts will be watching for? jacob: jacob: if you are kicking the can down the road, agreeing to continue to talk so you have . continuing trade cease-fire the chinese probably offer up some kind of purchases of various u.s. commodity goods that are easy to implement quickly. difficult for me to see chinese government move ahead on the bigger issues the u.s. had been complaining about, related --is ip are ip related, technology transfers.

now followingight his climb down in the shutdown fight with the democrats is politically weak. i think he has the standing with his base to cut a big deal with china without getting all these things the chinese aren't going to give him. cooking -- kicking the can again. ramy: we are talking about delays everywhere. very quickly, the wto is likely to probe donald trump's tariffs into china. where should we expect this to end? jacob: we hope it never ends because the reality is the wto adjudicating this geopolitical struggle in another name between the biggest economies of the world, that isn't something the wto system was set up to do or

can handle. i think it will go on forever, then the wto and the rest of the world are hoping the u.s. and china can settle their differences bilaterally. we have to leave it there, but really great to talk to you, jacob kierkegaard of the peterson institute joining us with some of the big events on the geopolitics calendar. lots more ahead on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪

back.welcome there is plenty more coming up on daybreak asia. alicia garcia carrero joins us as we look at a lot of economic data throughout this week, haidi. haidi: a real glimpse into all of the bearish forecasts the global economy has led. that is a must it for daybreak australia.

treating in new zealand is underway. australia is closed for a long weekend public holiday. pretty much unchanged for the open with tokyo and seoul. ♪

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haidi: good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts. ramy: good evening, i am rainy -- ramy inocencio. sophie: i have sophie kamaruddin. welcome to "daybreak asia." ♪ haidi: our top stories, reports from london said theresa may is ruling out the no deal brexit. she told her cabinet but doesn't want to make this decision public. the trade war taking a dramatic turn. the wto wants to know if the tariffs breach president trump'