>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in the london. >> we're live in dubai. bloomberg day break europe. > stocks in asia soar, the stocks in washington restart this week as the u.s. and china a deal.reach on different pageses tensions between the u.s. and europe the munich security conference. the u.s. vice president is met awkward silence as he time-outs american leadership. could central bank change its interest rate guidance if weakness in europe's economy continues.

>> welcome to the show. let's talk about risk. saying it all, the euro is yen, the ainst the uxtaposition, trade talks and stimulus in china and ratcheting higher.tle bit you're at a three-month high. rump says they had very productive discussions, rallied by 5% last week. chinese is from the banking corporation. markets are astonished by the of production cuts. this is the bundchen, when do we negative tremendous tray? yield, let's take that off, the futures are rallying, the yields are declining, one way of looking at it. to posture is when do we go

negative .1%. that is their target by the end of the year. one way of are looking at that. good morning. >> good morning. way of lookinger at, the euro dollars at 113 day. on friday after we saw after dovish comments and it is gaining today. about risk, you saw the on 500 end the session friday on a 10-week high and u.s. markets stopped, cash markets nd cash bond closed for presidents day. running, es are up and but it's dead flat there. not a great week for assets last eek, a weekly drop for e.m. currencies. i thought i would put cable in there as well. are saying the g-10 from cies gaining apart the yen. two as teresa may has

weeks to rush and try to salvage some sort of deal. check on the markets in asia, happy monday, it's risk on! >> it is risk on, we of course, closed monday ts for presidents day holiday. we're taking the lead from the on friday and also the china credit data which came verygh on friday which was solid, the best that president trump signalled the talks with trade dispute going well adding to the sentiment. china has been leading the charge today up by 2.8% and you pretty much every market is higher with the exception of india's market. for an eighth session in a row, the longest losing august 2013. investors look ahead to those away from kazmir and the trade optimism. looking at stocks, watching singapore s. in

coming through with its fourth quarter net income. it was weaker than what the for.et was looking it says that it's trying to improve and you got d.b.s. in singapore up by almost 2%. in india dropped by 8.5% regulator anking essentially reprimanded it a selective ve report. in australia, bank of over 6% shall n the most three years after the first half cash profit less than what analysts were looking for. for the you very much singapore. backed by optimism on trade discussions, stocks in asia are rallying to their highest since october. the u.s. and china sent signals or they may reach a deal extend talks to bring an end to their trade war.

appetite.isk oining us, our guest host for the next hour, our capitol portfolio manager, good to see you. so a couple of different things. the trade optimism, really the focused on iso be this, this is a china lender and his is ratcheting higher, the stimulus is really coming home to bear fruit in china. is that or trade talks that is the market? >> i think it's a combination of both. the themesthis point of trying to catch on to any ositive news out of china and hopefully that would underpin negotiations with the u.s. support s of hope give to the market right now. >> good to have you with us this morning. on that note of the market clinging on to any sort of hope with trade talks, are we still a place where it will be enough for the markets in terms we get by if all arch 1 is no imposition of

tariffs and to discuss further? >> nobody wants to up the ante at this point in time. see from the chinese is amealioriate the administration to bring the trade deficit to zero over the few years. china doesn't want to be seen that to u.s. requests, might push it a bit further. at this point we can assume a push out beyond the march 1 date. give the be enough to buoyancy.me of extending erms trade, the ions, the aussie, some are buyers or have the volatility

chart in terms of the market. would you e and how look at trading trade, do you volatility in aussie? > i think aussie is a convoluted trade because of asia and china specifically. at the numbers, we're seeing a more dovish tilt from the r.b.a. seeing housing numbers suffer in australia and they for quite a ling while. seeing degradation. aussie dip again. ook, last time we had negotiations with china, premier, theth the we sawemier in the u.s.,

plenty of yuan buying and they at this point, china around 6.7. any amazing wing breakthrough with negotiations, to ay see it dipped down 6.6, 6.5. strong support from the chinese and the game actually is looking for a resumption later this year. there is a lot of notes that recently, this is specifically on fed, we'll talk about that, fed and stimulus. you want to be long junk, numbers on high yields, a 10% u.b.s., they want to be long dollar junk bonds and m.f. favorite trade. from a credit perspective, would you part of that?

goes back to the story morgan stanley. i think the relative valley base good trade at this point. the see more inflows as market expands in asia. for a bounce back as well, equities based on valuations or something else? >> i don't think we're looking at that in this point of time signs of whatmore the actual trade talks will end in. you can see trump extend tariffs and short period of time come back with a new threat after a week. and arket lives in embers tweets right now. we have to be very careful that see a short term, we balance in asian equities, the fundamental factor of trade is still there.

>> there is the discussions in going to be a normalize, but are you putting on protection trades, are you buying volatility? are you storing up for a more difficult year? trade this popular year has been basically carrier we pick up carrier. as we pass this stage of egotiations and especially after we pass brexit, there will be a pickup. volatility will be in the brexit event and after those. we'll see a lot of things come light after brexit. ost central banks have leaned on the protectionity issue and global concerns issue to keep their course as they are right now. and we se events pass have some clarity of what see ns after brexit, we'll it pick up. >> on the theme of protection sorry, on the theme of

rotection, is the yen attractive to you all at the moment? > the yen for me is a trade into march as we approach asia, year-end. if you look at the market and the yen, we had the bounce pacquiao from the beginning of year from the low 104s, the market is obviously longen at this point. t hasn't behaved in a way that asymmetric in dollar strength. e haven't seen that risk play out this year. >> saed stays with you. reat to have you on the show for the hour. let's get to the news with olivia. teresa may is appealing to the conservative colleagues to unite behind her brexit deal. is prepared to go back to

brussels for more talks with leaders, meanwhile, airbus a no deal divorce would be catastrophic and need it to reconsider in future uniform c. investments. tek war is seeing europe come under pressure from both the u.s. and china. key question is whether chinese equipment should be networks.m future 5g security had at a conference over huawei. >> the threat by chinese telecom they provide beijing's vast security any atus with access to data that touches their network or equipment. our critical t telecom infrastructure. we cannot be misled. very is cooperating

closely with european countries revolution, weal should all work together and law doesn't require doors es to install back or collect intelligence. > saudi arabia has been dismissed a report that muhammad wants to buy united. could spend 3.8 billion pounds. e calls the report completely untrue. global news 24 hours a day, 2,400 journalists and analysts in 120 cups. olivia, thank you very much. question, if the u.s. designates also imports as to national security, look at the b.m.w. company

in america. debate, good morning. >> good morning, it's an interesting debate. guest on friday saying this is one of the most jumped priced issues when it comes to trade in the markets. up, was the last meeting dovish at the press conference. we talk about that next, this is bloomberg.

>> this is bloomberg day break europe. i'm in dubai. >> i'm in our european headquarters in london. let's check on the markets. a bit of risk on the day and optimism around the u.s. china talks. you're seeing some broad-based

gains across asia. euro is holding up around 113. did dip and ended up changed by the end of the session. mong all of the risk appetite, you are saying a bit of .4 oftion coming through, a percent. oil is on the run high. high.t a four-month the market is stunned by the copper, e by opec and rising for the fourth day, the longest winning streak if a month. ill it endure or we all being duped on trade talks? olivia, got up early, good morning, olivia. thanks, manus. itigroup is set to be in talks to buy a wharf. bloomberg has learned the u.s. purchase from

equity partners. reported in october they were concerning a sale of morning 1.2 billion pounds. a special government committee may recommend a new board structure. they will suggest there is an ndependent director to oversee board meetings. coordinator. sold 360 million euro of shares. have along been a controversial shareholder. john refused to meet with executives. business.ur bloomberg >> investors will be looking for feds larity over the dovish pivot over interest rates. he central bank won't raise rates again until inflation

accelerates. fed president has said officials will probably change the framework to change target in a bid to stabilize expectations. operating officer is still with us. when you look at these minutes, re you going to be watching closely as to how convinced the hawks were with this dovish pivot? >> i think what we're going to be looking at is basically the of why the fed has made such a pivot in terms indicators eading that they may see trending. at this point in time, i still the view that the pivot driven by d was more other than power. market expectations, something that powell and the and ook notice of especially in regards to the expanding balance sheets of corporate america. honestly that g

they like to see leveraged slowly. at this point in time, they will see what the commentary will be to he minutes in reference those elements. chart team put together a of inflation expectations. he thought inflation was at the what he called an ok range. take a look at this. is the five to 10-year estimates, the lowest on record. mean, buddy, they have a mandate, this doesn't look good of expectations. >> we're trying to pick whether situation or inflation, we have been in a low inflation environment since kiwi came in. ne of the main reasons is the changing structure of the underlying economy. oday you see reduction in retail space and more into online sales. it's anot a minor issue,

massive issue in the u.s. depressed inflation. wage dproj has been suppressed. normal cycle where you have increased stimulus seen ver the past year play into earnings. that's not playing into inflation. that's what causing the feds to ake a second look, what is going on here. what is the change in the underlying fundamentals of the economy. we have seen aed, the dollar region the dovish fed. how high is the bar for a the rest of ar for the year? >> i think we'll see minute there.s from here to current,rlying story of the deficits of the dollar will suffer, it's an old story and well played out. you look at the dollar right now, you look at it as relative value trade. in a world where basically you the e.c.b. touting and the of ram, when the banking england is on hold and looking

for potential brexit outcome could be dovish and the open is still on the floor on their curve, that still gives the dollar plenty of terms of relative value. so i still think the dollar has lenty of space on the upside over the course of the year. there is a lot more space for he fed, there is a lot more space for growth in the u.s. relative to everybody else out there at this point in time. is it a diverse, the growth diverges, that part of your thinking? thinking, the fed has completed a cycle. the fed holds and doesn't do anything, they're ahead of the others and most of the other counterparts, canada and australia, the housing crisis or deflated housing crisis they have domestically. urope passes a deal with

pressure coming in, i think a lot more concerns outside outside the u.s. barring negotiations of china. if that comes through, the u.s. more. rise giving the s&p versus the euro stocks, they outperformed the by a considerable margin. that's not a coincidence. flowing still assets into the u.s. at this point in time. he may parliamentary elections in europe, we'll see further reduction in european risk into u.s. risk. >> that's interesting because we've got a chart actually about resistance for the s&p 500 approaching 2800 for the fourth time in four months. i was going to do a balance sheet charts. i want to switch them now because you have taken them to that. in terms of money moving into .s. assets, i'm getting the chart ready here so bear with me. do we think that this time could actually see the

s&p rally behind that point where it's failed three times before? look, i'm not saying the rate at this point in time. what i'm trying to say is that its european counterparts, the euro stocks, it definitely outperforms. if i was going to do a trade, i s&p, it would be a long short relative value trade. the whole year will be about relative value. it's not going to be a straight have seen in the past month-and-a-half. that's where it played out in expectations of china and expectations of fiscal expansion. next quarter i think we're looking for something more along the lines what is the europe rather than the u.s. that's a relative value trade. i'm going to take it deeper into the european trade shortly. about duration versus

volatility. one-year in the united states of relative to two and five, that's actually invested. there is this discussion, you put it in one-year money, have all the way down in duration down the curve? >> i think as we're approaching uncertainty right now with the fed -- it's not uncertainty, we knew where they were going until last january, since january we've moved our focus to the front end of the curve. if you look at the curve as a there is very little premier price on the back end at this point in time. see the front end wherein herein -- inflation and growth and yields will spike. the back end now, we have the fed will be on hold

until they tell us otherwise. saed, our capital management portfolio manager. next, we will talk about that subject brexit. this is bloomberg. this isn't just any moving day.

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european headquarters in london. we are both digesting the comments we have had from ecb policymakers. i was drawn to a comment that asked an important question. it changed from a conversation about postponement of normalization to a conversation about expansionary steps? down, if the data slows if you have a disinflationary spiral exported from china, targeted at euros. is that the best way through?

certainly, the french governor suggested a whole plethora of deals could be on the table. i was talking to richard kelly from toronto dominion bank on friday. he says they will not necessarily be introduced, he is on the hawkish side. but they still expect a depot rate hike, he says the ecb can do it. 2005, they talked about downside risks at the start of the year, and then they still height. tous: somewhat have a thing say about hiking in absolutely the wrong moment. week frometoric this all of the central banks could be pivotal for the rest of the year. the question is do we get negative risks on the 10 year bond? nejra: yeah, and through it all, the euro has been holding up above 1.13.

on wednesday, the fed releases minutes from the january meeting. look for any details on the new dovish stance. later that day, samsung holds a launch event, plenty of leaks have already revealed specs. saturday, chairman warren buffett puts out his letters to shareholders. he has released it annually since 1965, even i was not alive in 1965. nejra: [laughter] manus: investors are also awaiting earnings, glencore among others are releasing data. let's bring in our energy and commodities senior reporter david. thank you for staying so late, what will investors be focusing on? >> as you say, we are expecting earnings data from glencoe are, anglo-american, the backdrop for

all is very solid. prices have been robust. on whats will focus will be do with excess cash? how much of it is coming back to investors about how much into new projects? announcedhey have 10.5 billion in shareholder returns, so expectations are a little more muted. glencore, there are expectations they could come out with a new buyback program. in terms of projects and spending, we are going to see a real focus if these companies are going to commit to new projects, what is the rate of return? aware haveall too spent money on a white elephant. people are very conscious. they do not want to see that capital be wasted again. nejra: yeah, and another issue for these markets, we're talking

about a human tragedy. are we going to hear more about the potential response of the mining sector to last month's fatal mining in brazil? tragedy, and enormous loss of life in brazil. and we are still seeing the ramifications, things are not that clear at this point in terms of impact on the market, in terms of the kind of responses we will see. for investors in this and next week, they will be focused on two things. other iron or producers put more supply into the market and make up for the lost output we will see from brazil? expectations are that among the large competitors, we will not see too much. they do not have a lot of spare capacity bringing a new supply to the market. so it could be smaller players who benefit. the other strand is what will the industry do to make sure it

can't prevent these kind of disasters in the future? this was not the first one. we saw a similar incident in 20 14, so what are they going to do , how will they respond, and how much will it cost? nejra: key questions to be answered. much, bloomberg's commodity and energy senior reporter david springer in melbourne. let's check up on markets around the world. let's start with you. the global rally skipping india today, why? yeah, good morning to you, of course. inia has not participated the last 45 days, indian markets have stayed lower. i don't know if it has to do with one oil moving up and that

factor not working, or the flows having slow down. there was money in the first week of february, since then, last days have slow down and flows have slow down. it is probably weighing down. we did not do too much, currently languishing of it. one more point before i give it back to you, is what is happening within the markets. one thing that is becoming a sellinglenders not collateral stock held by them. it happened with one of the largest media groups in the country, and now has happened with another your -- another. those stocks are up and about in the session. one hopes it is not become a norm, but for now, it is great for the minority shareholders. but the market is languishing a

little bit. manus: thank you very much. dani youa to london, are looking at the overall mood. the question is will it be a touch of whiplash if trump's aggressive on trade? >> is this cautious optimism? any reaction to those kind of tweets will show us, but for now, the msci asia-pacific index trading at a high. the macro story encapsulated here, not only trade, but central-bank policy. also, e.m. currency is gaining, up .3%. any global growth concerns taking a backseat. when we talk about the global growth, trade has to touch on copper, up nearly .9%. it would seem that trade optimism is overshadowing any concerns that a slowing economy might dampen the bid for copper.

let's stick with commodities, i want to show you another thing happening with the weakening dollar. that is a bid for precious metals. gold trading at its highest since april, but the big breakout today palladium, now trading at its higher -- highest price ever. not only theo with precious metal trade, but a tighter supply is giving them a bid, pushing them above gold for the past couple of days. nejra: interesting, thank you. and how long will copper stay above that moving average? thank you both. let's get first word news with olivia house in london -- howes in london. trade talks in beijing were quoted very productive. fears the u.s. will

ramp up tariffs when a key deadline hits. the two sides continue talks this week. car imports do pose a risk to u.s. national security, what anp is reporting after a probe into the sector. this could lead america to impose tariffs, but angela merkel seems incredulous about german cars posing a risk the u.s. -- to the u.s.. >> those cars are built in the united states of america. those cars are no less of a threat to those in bavaria. >> saudi arabia has dismissed a report that mohammad bin salman wants to buy manchester united. it is reported the crown prince is willing to spend aliens to buy the club. the information minister calls the report completely untrue. global news, 24 hours a day, on air on tictoc on twitter and

more than hundred 20 countries. nejra, manus. manus: thank you very much for the roundup. is leading the -- colleagues.ly mores going to russell for talks and told her party that she plans to speak to the leader of every eu member state in the coming days. saed abukarsh, ark capital management chief portfolio manager. here we are, we are literally counting down the clock to brexit. when you look at this, next week there is a possibility that parliament could regain control and take a hard brexit off the table. are we closer to that van a hard brexit? saed: the market is positioned where they actually expect an expansion -- extension.

if we were lined up for a hard brexit, we would see sterling traders substantially lower, maybe five or 10 figures lower. right now, we are expecting and extension, this game of chicken to play out until the very last days of brexit. theave a vote coming up on 27th. trying to, we are decide what they will vote in, rather than vote out. so the possibility to remove a hard brexit scenario, given there is not enough time to reach an agreement, will be paramount. fail there again, there will be another two or three weeks to seek some kind of resolution. i think it will be very dangerous for this government to push the eu summit, assuming

ay'speans will give into m demands. they don't have to, in fact, may has to ameliorate them given that they have to approve her request for an extension. there are two ways to think about this. one, extend article 50, or revoke article 50. i think we will extend article 50. aed, how are you expressing these views? saed: in the short-term, eurosterling is a trade your any news -- is a trade. drive sterling lower, so now that the has shifted. over the next five or six days, it will be moving on the uncertain the of a hard brexit. if we do see motion by the

british government to remove that risk of a i think we will see sterling rallied substantially. manus: before we payment to the ecb, on a hard brexit, where do you see the potential move on the downside? saed: we could see 1.2 again easily. a hard brexit, i think sterling will lose quite a bit of ground. governor carney intimated that in the last meeting. ecb.: let's talk europeanhe size of the allen street and the government bond purchases. the intimation is that they are issues, they are seriously thinking about this on the table. you think they will use other instruments before those? saed: it has been a habit of the ecb to telegraph their actions,

much like the fed. it is not the first time i think we are right now on the path to new deal tarot. i think it will be significant. there is no reason to have it if it will not -- will be symbolic. it has to be significant and change the path of liquidity in the eurozone. so he will definitely come in at this meeting. at the very least, they will give us a clear date when they intend to put one in. nejra: ok i'm a interesting. i'm hearing two sides. on one side, the data will about from here. on the other side, you hear the bearish case building up for investors.

recommending options on the euro. is that a sensible way to play the currency? downside,ing the euro if we recall to last year, positioning long dollar is similar to what we saw last year in april and may. so the move down will be gradual, it will not be extreme or said. sudden.-- i think we will see an exploration of the european downside. i would not be surprised to see the euro at 1.4 or 1.5. we have been in a range of euro, plus or minus. there has not been this decisive break of the euro downside. what we need to see is one european policy.

as you push the parliamentary elections, we will see it break down further. once we have clarity regarding china, i think that will be positive for the dollar against the euro. are reading the producers mind because we want to go to the question of the day. , this is the china question of the day from the mliv team. they are asking this question. if the u.s. designates auto imports as being a national security, could that be the tipping point for the ecb when tltro's?to saed: they have mentioned external evidence as a driver for policy, but at the same time, they put on to the table. the markets are expecting it, it is unlikely they will put it back. the issue with u.s. tariffs on european car imports, that is extremely underpriced.

the risk of there is we could see a global equity selloff as of see the europeans reciprocate tariffs on u.s. imports. that is how we could see it play out. if we look at the script of the u.s.-chinese relations. oft could be the next phase trump's election bid for 2020. nejra: saed abukarsh, ark capital management chief portfolio manager, thank you for saying with us for the hour. coming up, elections the lake lagos., we are live in this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: i'm in a rich a hitch in cehic in london.

>> citigroup is said to be in buy 25 square from equity partners. therted in october that owner was considering a sale of 1.2 billion pounds. nissan's special government committee may recommend a new board structure. they are suggesting the carmaker have an overseer of chair, reducing the power of the next chairman, while maintaining partnerships with renault and mitsubishi. this top investor is getting to cut their stake. hna sold millions in shares, reducing their ownership to 6.3%. hna has long been a controversial shareholder. the former ceo initially refused to meet its executives.

that is your business flash. manus: thank you very much. now, in nigeria, they postponed a general election. a last-minute delay jolted investor confidence in africa's biggest economy. for more, let's get to apollo wallace.- to paul hours to go before the polls open, what happened? >> yes, it came out of the blue at 9 p.m. or 10 p.m. on friday. we started hearing rumors there might be a delay and we had to wait until 3 a.m. until they actually announced it. it caused disarray and mucked up the plans for so many nigerians. now we will have to see what the turnout is like next week, because a lot of nigerians simply won't be able to travel to reagan's -- two weekends

running. we have heard all kinds of horse stories about people who had weddings planned next weekend. who knows what they will do now. the election commission has said it was solely down to the just tickle problems, a massive exercise involving 80 million registered voters and more than 100 political parties and something like 23,000 candidates when you include the local elections. they say it was nothing to do with political interference or security. nejra: what needs to happen from here for investors to have confidence in this process? >> nigerian assets have actually done a very well this month, -- have done a very well this month , nigerian stocks were the world's best performance in

february and the local bonds are the best performers in ofrging-market since the end january. we will have to wait and see just what the reaction is like today. ,he stock market isn't yet open but there is a good chance there will be outflows. some investors will think this is not unusual for nigeria, elections here are regularly delayed. the 14 years ago was delayed by six weeks. but others will the very wary of this delay. nejra: thank you so much for joining us. saed abukarsh, ark capital management chief portfolio manager is still with us. early you were saying there is a reason for dollar strength relative to other g10 currencies .

what about the emerging markets space? saed: looking past the minute affairs, we will be looking towards the story of does e.m. respond well to a growth story in the u.s.? if we do see a shift out of the fed, which would be more hawkish, we would cem selloff considerably. their hopes are pinned to the u.s. and global equities. e.m. will probably rally this week on the back of china in the short-term, but this is a short-lived rally. , we have seenrade e.m. flows into turkey, into mexico, even into iran. a great deal of flows into the assets. shock,d of short-term whether it be political or trade related would cem selloff

considerably. at the same time, in the absence of volatility, of risks rising, e.m..is no reason to sell this has been a trade that has been very popular and is working. we need to see risks back on the table to see e.m. selloff. manus: these are the best performing currencies of 2019. peso, who is most at risk in the e.m. overcrowded house? saed: brazil comes right after mexico. are probablyazil the most crowded trades in the e.m. space. we will see something in the

lines of one trade issue. we did see mexico selloff considerably. manus: you did it all in 15 seconds. saed abukarsh, ark capital management chief portfolio manager. we are going to talk fed.

>> good morning from dubai. this is bloomberg day break europe. >> live from bloomberg european headquarters in the city of london. today's top stories. positive signs soar on trade optimism. washington restart this week as the u.s. and china race reach a deal. on different pages, tensions u.s. and europe dominate the security conference. he u.s. vice president has met -- awkward silence as he the ficant slowdown,

central bank could change its interest rate guidance, if weakness in europe's economy continues. good morning, everyone. london.00 a.m. in let's get the numbers. things we're watching out for is start to the cold and flu season affected sales. fourth quarter results is what looking at here. fourth quarter comes in up 4%. 3.7%.stimate was a beat there. our-year adjusted operating 3.6 billion pounds. final e talking about a dividend per share of 100.2. they are also targeting like for

like net revenue growth, an 3% to 4% and the record is also expected to its adjusted margin in the full year. so those are the things that are in the numbers. he flu season was in focus for analysts as well. update.a c.e.o. >> take a look. stock today.n this i'll get to those in a moment. germany, we saw bombing short volatility the stock that's come through there. you are just seeing an go cation that it will higher. through sitions run until april 18. undermines the market trust. to 's what the regulator is do. let me take you to the bond well. as the question is this.

our last guest, it's not when, it's not if, but targeted come into ecb. from the you've got them talking about is the slowdown the mood for the ecb? 10-year government bond -- you've got to get it into the that's the and challenge. all things are on the table according to some members of the ecb. now, let's talk about the bond market. you've got nine fed speakers. it will be a bumper week of terms of language. durable goods, one-year paper five.s more than two and an inversion there. so it's all about duration. good morning. good morning.

let's take a look at the futures. european we saw equities and u.s. equities end on friday up more than 1%. in the bit more muted futures today despite what we're seeing in the asian second. dead flat.s you've got u.s. stock and bond closed for president's day. you want see the s&p 500 moving. moving insee a lot of ftse, but positive activity coming through in the dach 40 futures. we could see another day of green. i just broke to you the numbers well. something to think about. move.k that might net revenue growing, 3% to 4%, so this is how the equity picture is shaping up. you're seeing some broad-based appetite with moving moving into well after some weakness has week. singapore has more. how is it looking over there, good to see you. looking amazing.

particularly in china. at this closing high 3.2%. virtually every stock closing in green. we have that china credit lending data coming through on friday. than y, was stronger expected and we're taking that intel from the s&p 500 on friday hit that hen it 10-week high. as you mentioned u.s. markets will be closed today for asian nt's day but investors certainly buying into that story, and after president trade talks at the were very productive. you have japan closing higher by over 2%. mentioned, a lot of buying coming through. want to point out -- is lower and that's due to those attacks. focusing on y much what's happening at home rather than the global rally. in terms of occurrences you have the u.n. rising on that optimism. the singapore dollar also very in focus. we're about to get the singapore the t but exports dropped most in two years.

the singapore dollar up against greenback and watching the indonesian indonesian, comparing to the countries of those have elections. rupiah offers a better risk reward than the rupee at the moment. > last week, of course, we saw occurrences have their worst mid-december. a recovery that is going broadly. kicking off. occurrences rallying, backed by progress.n trade the u.s. and china sent signals hey may reach a deal or extend talks to end their trade war. while u.s. markets remain closed set to resume in

washington next week. have you with us this morning. thank you for joining us. so we're talking a lot about risk on tape what have you been seeing in flows, your etp products that suggest whether the market is tilted towards or against risk? >> actually, this is really interesting. what we've seen so far this year that despite markets feeling a bit better compared to last year especially towards the end year, investors are still painting a picture of defense.ce and $40you look at year-to-date, billion went into global etts but almost a hundred percent of fixed income.nto in general equity flows were drag down the overall picture they are just about zero so far year-to-date. investors are e excited, the markets are quite, quitehey are reluctant to actually put a lot

of cash to high exposure, exposure. having said that, the merging this. is an exception in the one bright spot in the etp flow picture of year-to-date and fixed e equities income, we've seen a lot of merging markets. >> good morning, good to see you this morning. flows are se inex-trickably linked to what four has done in the past to five months. do you think it's the stimulus story that we're covering this versus the trade story or the trade optimism, which is a sentiment that, rather than fact? that what's driving em? >> it's a combination of both. in china what happens will have a significant impact on sentiment towards merging and exactly as you said driver of the biggest for china, stimulus story as

well as trade story, both short to medium term. meet the argue do they credit growth financing at this point? in the longer term it gives in the short , term, medium term, with a bit of to the t will fit economy which would be positive sentiment towards china. for trade negotiation as well. strategic confrontation between is not going u.s. to go away because we're talking facing off to s the emerging super power. in the short term both sides a deal and they want it to happen in some sort short term release, it could the more momentum towards emerging market. >> we've seen copper go above its 200 day moving average. what's interesting is while you're seeing copper rally you're seeing money move into gold as well. wondering what dynamics

you're seeing around commodity metals, articularly in precious versus base metals? > so far this year, gold has actually taken the majority share of in flows into commodities. in part because the amount for industrial metals especially at he beginning of this year were very much muted because of growth concern but also in part of use of gold becoming all a sudden quite attractive, given hold, tral bank being on in most parts of the world, and huge amount of competition for cash in that rates aren't going higher, and also, investors recognizing hat they just need that diversification in their portfolio, so sticking to clients that have allocated to all of them expect to go to break out from the range hat's been trading but they just recognize that they need diverse-fier.

>> where do we go for protection. when you interesting detail the amount of money that flowed into bonds before christmas, obviously, december, a virulent month, versus what you saw in january, that just outline it for me. huge amount of a inflows into rate products in december. if you think act market dynamics back then, the diversification of bonds finally coming back place, one reason that's been challenging markets has wildly swing correlation, but last december it goes to show that bonds were effective as diverse fires, so we saw inflows going into that and the momentum has year-to-date albeit to before investment, high grade crest has picked up as well. >> investment-grade and high picked up, too.

what's the preference in terms of bonds? the u.s.?l >> we've seen a lot of inflows bonds..s. dominated government bonds and credit, increasingly, speaking to the world, ross investors recognize -- european credit becoming quite attractive as well given the high cost of their local nto currency. we're starting to see an for japanese investors for european credit and europeaeuropean picking up as well. >> what we were looking at is stanley, ubs making a big all on high yield in asia specifically. so just to pick up on that hunt for t yield, ield, is that a big driver of

2019? >> >> it is a driver, but in sense they want to get that yield. view the e, as we emerging market, that being more attractive from a risk adjusted perspective, in comparison we want yield, and selective.to be -- like during the periods [inaudible] >> no matter where you stay you can make positive return. cycle, e cycle, end of you just have to be a bit more selective and where you see in active opportunities emerging markets across the board. >> investment strategy stays with us. to let's go to bloomberg, olivia in europe. coming under pressure, whether hinese equipment should be banned from future 5-g networks.

conference. >> the united states has also been very clear with our partners on the threat posed by chinese telecom companies. requires them to provide beijing's vast security apparatus with access to any that touches their network or equipment. our critical t telecom infrastructure. and cannot be ot misled. uawei as a company is cooperating very closely with european countries in the fourth revolution. together and work chinese law doesn't require install back doors or collect intelligence. teresa may is appealing to conservative party colleagues to unite behind her brexit deal. go back to ing to

brussels for more talks with e.u. leaders but gaining headway on if she can show a unite front at home. meanwhile, airbus says a no deal would be "catastrophic" future uk ering investments. saab has dismissed a report that wants to buy -- the crown prince could be willing to spend $3.8 billion pounds to buy the club. report is called completely untrue. lobal news 24 hours a day, tictoc, powered by more than and analysts sts in more than 120 countries. >> i'll pick it up from here, we've got a question for you. designates a threat of national security, will that be the tipping point for the ecb to offer banks new long term loans? debate on the e

blog with a plustvgo. not if but when. now you've got to actually lend the money. yeah, from the ecb to the ed, coming up, was the last meeting as dovish as jay powell's press conference? we talk minutes next. this is bloomberg. alk minutes n. this is bloomberg.

>> i think what we're going to see is normal wage growth which s a little bit north of three will spike to over 4% this year because of all the capital in last year cuts.e of tax e expect real wage growth to accelerate. >> 7:19 a.m. in london. 40 minutes away from the start equity trading. this is bloomberg day break london.rom >> i'm in dubai. let's give you a quick check on the markets. 7:19 in london. 11:19 in dubai. this is what we've got. bit of european stock action on the upside. $10 uest from blackwell, billion flowed in. we'll talk more about that in a

moment. eurodollar, yield differential may be widening. in the world to sell. more stimulus on the way. overly excited about the prospect? as pect of a trade deal opposed to fact which is stimulus, in china. a look at cable. on the front, 129.11, up .2%. theresa pay will be asking the e.u. to help save brexit. weeks to do that. basisis points, up a point. november.ince seems to be largely on optimism that the u.s. and china can a trade deal. being swept up in the rally. where we trade. olivia. to positions in ual

wire cards. reporting in germany's favor. prosecutors are aware of short planned to publish news about the payments provider. mayial government committee recommend a new board structure. suggesting it will request an independent director to influence of the next hairman but he would still be key partners in mitsubishi. itigroup is said to be in talks. they have learned the u.s. bank wants to purchase from equity partners. we reported in october that the skyscraper's owner was sale of 1.2 billion pounds. flash. bloomberg >> thank you very much. looking stors will be for some clarity over the dovish

pivot. he central bank won't raise rates again until inflation accelerates. that's his message. now, former new york fed president has said officials will probably change the use to achieve heir inflation target in a bid expectations. we have a guest with us. to my stion that comes mind did the questioned over -- dove themselves in january? back a need to walk it bit? so far, the feds turning 180 egrees in january versus december. one could ask if that what it to turn sentiment around, although they could have

gone a bit softer in terms of turnaround so that it's possible to create more the bility further down line. with regards to the fed, we think that it has definitely a lot more market dependent, in addition to being our dependent and expectation for this year is first half, no show, no action whatsoever, and maybe there is a possibility later for one more rate hike but that's very market pendantent. in that case if you look at u.s. egts, we showed a chart earlier that they have been break at that 2800 level on the s&p 500 three times past.y in the recent are you advising clients to stay nvested in u.s. equities or to stay invested but in a defensive way? >> the latter. actually both. invested in u.s. equities, bit more selective in which part of the market you

would like to own, so we've had equity market overweight for the most part of the past 12 months or so. year, when we were talking about it, this year we're quality as a factor. factor, and, a in g with factor basis, terms of how to invest. >> not everybody on the team got excited as i did about the university of michigan five-year outlook.ar inflation it is at a record low. what does that shout to you, or a consequence of an economic evolution in the united got toof america, and i excited? expect inflation to stay slightly above targets but not away, but not falling from here, and

very much in action, at this stage, in the cycle, and obviously, we also have our inflation, gps indicator, pointing to the that it's pointing toward is it because of technology or because of the recovery? pace of it's a combination of both and really hard to quantitatively attribute them. >> don't worry. excited about the discussion but i'm also excited about what we've been hearing over the weekend from and how that changes the debate around their policy. the discussion. as we look ahead, the question u.s. designates auto imports a threat to national security, will that be a tipping ecb to offer banks new long term loans? >> it's hard to say which one is be the tipping point. maybe the auto report could be but from where we stand we see growth further

eurozone.ing in we see further downsiding in including the e, uk as well but we see growth eing very muted and slowing in momentum. a look at germany, close to technical recession. room for efinitely greater easing. supporting of the banks. that could certainly be one of options, but one has to consider the fact that rates are negative territory in europe. negative in terms of the bank the tability outlook so transmission mechanism, one has carefully very before rock them out because if he -- the banks are the intermediary of this action, not effective, what can they do? >> we have to draw a line, if we targeted loans. of course, we've got to transmit

to the real economy. i-shares -- all across the day break europe, open is next.t this is bloomberg. is is bloombe.

>> welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." the trade is less than 30 minutes away. ♪ anna: consensus in principle. stocks in asia balance after beijing and president trump signal a productive end to trade talks so far, but it doesn't look set to continue into european trade. asia on the road