balance sheet because of that. we have get that under control. in terms of future m&a, i think we are developing a strategy and concept in next place. nejra: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of we are acquiring a small london. i am nejra cehic. consultancy firm. manus: and i am manus cranny, live from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," and these are today's based at oxford university. they are experts in the top stories. development of our trains and the metal associated with that. nejra: policy makers the 2019 as the end of the balance sheet runoff but not necessarily their we believe we will be able to rate hikes. take that and find the next gap thrivesa deal, market on trade optimism, but will in the market. enough progress be made to avoid one other thing, the current new tariffs next week? fashion in the gold space is there is optimism the going to be lots of m&a. brexit agreement is next week. it is a dangerous place to think barclays reports this morning. we will hear from jes staley on you are going to create value. this. and the results. companies will run processes and so on. m&are not hot about doing

in the gold space at the moment. nejra: thank you very much. great to have you on the show this morning. global stocks are resuming. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 6:00 a.m. in london. the january fed minutes provided a boost. let's get the numbers. the picture is brightening a number of telecoms companies reporting today. asnge and telefonica as well across risk assets. china and the u.s. are working telecom italia. on six agreements. great to have you with us. door to telecoms seeing 2019 at 23.9 billion we will talk about the fed but i wanted to ask about this risk rally because you have good euros, so that is a red views on it. we are seeing equities push-up headlines crossing the bloomberg. deutsche telekom's adjusted against technicals. ebitda comes in at 5.6 5 billion what is your view? >> there might be some technical 5.65 billion euros. barriers here and there but the fundamentals support further they will propose a dividend versuse to 70 euro cents gains in stocks. you have the fed that is committed to being patient. 65. dividend increase, that's a positive. fourth quarter adjusted ebitda

missing. revenue coming in at 20.3 we have progress in trade talks. what is there not to like? billion euros. at about 23.9om can i ask you in terms of the language, the global nature, billion euros. coming up, our conversation with for the markets, are they really the ceo at 11:00 a.m. london the outcome, a good thing for time. manus. the asset manager gave us risk assets? be.t should a proper warning in december saying the full-year loss of 929 fed is committed to being however,wiss francs -- patient. at the same time, if you look at where the market might focus is on the inflow. there has been a full year net the u.s. economy which is the inflow into the labeling of 8.3 biggest in the world, the economy is still good. butave challenging q4, billion swiss francs. the stock is down by 70%, by the way, since the scandal broke in rings are bouncing back. rebounding in january. regards to one of their fund managers. with the labor market being this he will be dismissed for

misconduct. it could climb up later. assets at the end of december in the investment management were down to 56.1 billion swiss francs. we are in a sweet spot where the fed is being patient. the economy is not heading for a they have suspended their mid-to slump. long-term final targets. nejra: thank you. they are abandoning targets. going -- coming up on bloomberg, investment manage its -- we speak to the barclays ceo. management down. this is bloomberg. you are seeing implodes into the ♪ private labeling of 8.3 billion. a little bit more from switzerland. nejra: swiss re continues to explore, reassure ipo-ing 2019, so that is one of the lines coming through. 420 $1d that comes in at million after absorbing $3 billion of large claims and full-year net income comes in at 421 million dollars. -- estimate was the full-year dividend per share swiss franc..6

the estimate, five point three. that is a deed on the full-year dividend per share, a big miss. manus: a batteringthe insurance sign. full-year net- profit falls by 66% to 2.14 billion swiss. ofy are proposing a dividend 1.34, slightly ahead of what the market expected. they saw asset management outflows of 13 billion euros for the full year. they saw no deterioration for asset-management flows in the second half, so they talk about the whole year and that got they meet -- got stymied. of it down to natural catastrophes. so that is where the real pressure had been. we will ask the man himself, the ceo of axa.

he joins us later in the day. don't miss the conversation, 6:30 a.m. ukiah time -- u.k. time. to the markets, it was rinsed and rebalanced. i am talking about the triple ores. ofwas battered in the eye the bailout. and then the deficit. we have seen some small reprieve on that. therein lies the point. it was one of the worst-performing currencies. bet is what needs to challenged. that is what he is to be done. it all comes down to moody's on march 29 in terms of what they decide to do about the credit rating. very limited room for the south african government, they say. we will keep an eye on the rand throughout the rest of this show. let me show you a couple of other markets. global markets. we are up 15% on global equity markets in the past two months.

there is a wonderful line. he is called the godfather of stocks, peter oppenheimer. views haveession gone far too far for too long. that is the question and markets. the oil market. i am talking into the wind here. you know what, there we go. there is the dollar. take it away. you have a few more graphics than i do. nejra: dennis before it -- manus, before i get to the market, let me bring you some lines coming through on the bloomberg. the pboc is not yet ready to cut benchmark interest rates and it's likely to cut market-based more.and lower the rrr nejra: it is 718 in london. this is "bloomberg daybreak: these are some lines coming europe." through in terms of the pboc, ceos: let's get to our next just a take a look quickly before i turned to my board, on what dollar u.n. -- is at barclays. doingyuan is doing -- dollar-yuan is doing. they planned to return more cash to shareholders as the you were talking about the reported ak run-up in equity markets and

it's interesting because when you look to the fed minutes yesterday, the question becomes fourth-quarter operating profit matching estimates. there's a reason this man has a -- are we nearing the end of the balance sheet runoff? did the minutes have a little smile. welcome him to the bloomberg bit more of a hawkish bias than show. you are promising buybacks. the actual decision? certainly, the markets were -- buybacks. are you in the zone of rbf? you are seeing futures higher by .2%. today, optimism around trade of numbers can you to do withsomething tell us or guidance can you give us? that as well. >> for 2018, we more than the 10 year yield up a trebled the basis point. we have seen the curve steepening which would suggest the bond markets are not reading a hawkish bias. we will get into it, but i have capital we returned to shareholders. to put the aussie in here because i talked about this in the fourth quarter, we paid volatile currency. around 700 million pounds today is a perfect example of that. it move higher earlier on purchasing or repurchasing employment data. preferred stock. in terms ofp more than three times 2017. traction and it is holding lower, 70.97 on headlines that one of the chinese ports is we took a special reserve in the blocking coal imports from fourth quarter.

australia, so we talk about trade optimism. increase theo return of capital to our 2019.olders in maybe that headline is a little bit of a counterpoint, a nuance, a complication in the sort of in a progressive dividend. let's see how the buyback whether we are seeing any real program unfolds. story on global trade. juliette saly in singapore has part of that decision more. great to see you. i am sure you have been all over down to the numbers. the aussie dollar so you can give us more context on that and can you give us a little more what else is happening in asian markets. detail and color how the markets great to see you. all over all of his division did? the markets division did well the aussie. a lot happening in asia, in 2008 teen. particularly the lines coming through from the pboc. we have seen the yuan week in we gained market share. just a little bit, getting to for the year, our markets the 6.7 to the dollar level after pushing through that -- revenue were up 12%. aken just a little bit, the u.s. banks were up 5%. getting to the 6.7 to the dollar level. australia closed out the session we had the strongest performance before these lines dropped. of any of our competitors and the markets gained revenue going to stop australian coal imports, but it year-over-year. will be very interesting to we felt we were in a good watch in the session tomorrow. position. he saw other asset-like yields. the overall bank had positive -- you saw other asset-like

yields. japan is closing out the session draws for the year. we landed our cost within our by around .2%, so all in all, a cost target for 2019. fairly positive session on the .ack of the trade optimism having 5.7 billion downs, profits up 20%, we feel good but have a look at stocks because as i mentioned, you are about the results. going to be watching a lot of these call players in sit -- coal players in sydney. i have give a shout out last time, there was concern about the import -- the ports, i to the mliv team. 6%.ing revenue fell by should say -- the ceo downplayed that is better than the market had estimated. any suggestions that customs mind, is this a delays have anything to do with the trade disputes, but it will be interesting to see what strong weapon to use to push happens tomorrow. changeainst the call for wesfarmers coming through with its numbers. they are weighing various opportunities in the industrial ? session. we put forth our strategy for and then the pc maker, lenovo, one of the best barclays being a transatlantic performers in the region. consumer wholesale bank in 2016. its fourth-quarter net income came in above estimates and it also is showing a lot of signs

that it's turning around some of we think the progression we have made in terms of recapitalizing its underperforming assets and the bank, dealing with legacy profitability.e have a way toll one positive stock in the session today. manus: ok, thanks for the go. with our stock settled, we saly, with thete kind ofccept this pricing. we need to push our strategy forward. very latest on the asian markets and all of the global themes. what barclays needs is runoff minutese consistency. we need a stable strategy people after the january meeting. can get behind. also almost all participants was a good08 teen agreeing on the matter, but when it comes to interest rates, the demonstration of the progress we are making. fed officials were divided on the stability of when the next increase might be. the strategy, being a there was however no suggestion, no suggestion, of a cut. diversified bank and we will push it forward. can you give us insight joining us now, chief economist at bny management. on whether the order of directors is likely to recommend great to have you with us this morning. what caught my eye -- there investors for against against is something for everybody. edward bramson having a seat on participants the board. >> john mcfarland in his letter observed if uncertainty abated, and balanced, said the board they may need to reassess the

characterization of monetary policy. unanimously is going to i put it to you, sir, that they recommend shareholders do not putting risk into vote he get on the board. the market but were far too blind to see it. >> i think that's a very but we want to be engaged with interesting point. yes, some of the language, when our shareholders, but to have you did deep into the minutes -- that on the board, we do not wasdeep into the minutes, believe a board seat is necessary to do that. interesting. brexit. talk about there was focus on the impact from slowdown in the rest of the you said you are prepared for world and the impact of slowdown in the recent financial market it. you have taken a charge. 25% of the credit card volatility, but actually, the language relating to the domestic economy was relatively market. positive. are you seeing any concerns, there was talk about a strong anything of issue? are you concerned about a recession? job market, household, etc.. together and whether it is consumer or take them at their word. when they say they will be patient and data dependent, that small business or corporate, we is what they are going to do. start to turn are not seeing any signs of around, they may change. stress in terms of credit manus: stay with us. quality. an additional the chief economist at bny mellon investment management.

let's get to south africa, and provision of 150 million in fourth-quarter, just to be cautious and prudent. the biggest bailout in the nation's history plans to what we are seeing right now are reorganize. increases in cash level. course with the labor unions and concern about potential job losses. the finance ministers budget right now, the economy itself is some concernated over the eminent downgrade from moody's that the market is concerned about. not correcting for troubles on but there was a manifestation. the brexit market. but you get a sense people are being cautious as we come to the the rand was sold aggressively final weeks and hopefully not yesterday. we spoke to the chairman about much longer. the bailout. take listen. >> -- take a listen. uncertainty around brexit. >> [indiscernible] is economy and credit it is not all we needed. reasonably in good shape. it is wise for the industry to be prudent. it will go somewhere. brexit one of the we cannot put a lot of pressure on -- uncertainties markets are get to south grappling with. not the least which is -- africa's minister of public enterprises.

it overseas escom. he is the minister. questions coming whether the rally has further to run. what is your view? good to see you this morning. so 69 billion rand in a bailout. i think clearly we are seeing a smart move, an elegant solution? your take. growth slow in the global economy. >> [indiscernible] very much in europe. we have a possible recession in i think the so-called bailout is just one part of a total italy. solution that we are looking at. issues in asia as well. the challenge the market is wrestling with is low interest the president announced in the state of the nation address that rates. be transformed. they support asset valuations that are higher. if we go into a recession, the secondly, it has through its own bullets central banks around the accord been on a cost-cutting to support a stronger exercise, and primarily, that maintenance costs, but economy are limited. only the fed has moved interest rates, nine times since they also, ultimately, the question in thewe deal with staff started a pullback from monetary easing. entity as well. but they do not have the

over the last few days, we have against ato work met with the trade unions that operate within eskom, and what recession if one is coming our way. low interest rates, moving up we want is to sit around the table and find a solution, not valuations. there is a concern if we go into just fire people and put them streets, given recession, we may not have the policy to fight it. south africa's high unemployment >> it was a bruising december. rate. i believe we can create a climate which will enable us to actually do that. gordhan, good mentioned it a couple morning. you are sitting down with the of times. did you cut any risk levels in unions as you just said. 2019? >> know, we did not. if the unions blocked the government's plan to restructure eskom, what approach will you take then? us on can you update pravin: i think we are optimistic and that everyone cost? where you are with cutting recognizes that eskom is costs? versus 2019, we took 14 economyl entity for our and country. secondly, we do have a serious 2.9t 2 billion pounds to crisis, partly arriving from it own history and partly arising from corruption within eskom.

billion pounds. and thirdly, all of us need to range, a yearhat put the national interest first because there'll be more job early. we have flexed. losses if the entity is unable to deliver security which we will use according to required by our economy. results of the bank. we have good control. we will have intensive even to the point, i think the discussions as our live a law -- labor law requires. bank is going to start to invest more given we are in that. to leave itve we can start to envision a different future for e.u., where -- for eskom. there. thank you so much. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. the latest innovation from xfinity many parts of the country have a deficit in terms of engineers and other technical staff. so there are other possibilities apart from staying within the eskom environment itself, so if you told all of these possibilities that we actually need to explore and even on the financial side with the minister, what he announced yesterday in his speech, is the beginning of what the state can do. but there is a lot that eskom

itself can do, and there are other mechanisms that are being considered. which, once we have worked through the details, we will announce as well. eskom is receiving absolutely intense attention from the we want toitself and bring all stakeholders together so we can jointly solve the problem. the latest line from moody's, the budget deficit is set to be the highest in 10 years. moody have come out late yesterday evening. -- moody's have come out late yesterday evening. they will decide on whether they downgrade south africa. they say it shows little fiscal flexibility. dealt with rating agencies. what do you think the risk is of moody's going to junk? pravin: hopefully minimal. therey, recognizing that is a particular context where south african finds itself today.

secondly, this is not a profligate government. it is very aware of its responsibilities to maintain a balanced fiscal situation as we go forward. thirdly, that we are in a period where we are stabilizing our country and economy and not just sitting on our haunches. the top leadership in our country has gone out of its way to create an atmosphere of isn't just a store. confidence, welcoming it's a save more with a new kind of wireless network store. investments. it's a look what your wifi can do now store. over the nextt few years, there's going to be a lot of investment both from south african capital but also a get your questions answered by awesome experts store. global business interests as well. nejra: if i could just go back it's a now there's one store that connects your life to eskom, and you were talking like never before store. the xfinity store is here. and it's simple, easy, awesome. about more details being released on the eskom side, and how they would get through the restructuring, and also towards the conditions needed for the state report, investors reading through some notes yesterday

waiting for more details on the conditions for the state support. it begs the question whether eskom can facility conditions , andut tariff increases therefore, what a fair level for the tariff increase would be. well, on the one hand, eskom will have to meet some of the issues and conditions. it will create turnaround offers, it will have a turnaround officer. it has the beginnings of a good morning, this is the turnaround plan. european open. we get what we, inh in the medium-term and the immediate and short-term as well. want. and from our point of view as the shareholder, we will be u.s. and european futures climb stance isre dovish monitoring that situation very carefully and ensuring the confirmed and optimism for trade management deliver the negotiations. the cash trade is less than 30 way. -- 30 minutes away. ♪ milestones that were agreed

upon. increases are one component of the financial stabilization of eskom. hand, we cannot have excessive increases because that >> cause for a pause. has a negative impact on the economy. we cannot have no increases because eskom at the moment policymakers requires that revenue stream. a modest increase will be appropriate. of course, that is not in our hands. in south africa, we have an independent regulator which will look at all of these factors and that make this decision. -- and then make this decision. manus: the risk the markets, the rand, is between now and march 29. the central bank says the banking system has enough capital to withstand a downgrade . would you concur with that? strongbanking system enough to hold up if there is a downgrade and also, what pressure would come to bear on the currency? that is an issue but for the central bank and for the minister of finance to

comment on. remember that south african had even a bigger challenge in 2008 and 2009 when the great recession had an impact on our economy. we had a drop of 50 billion rand in revenue at that time. the banking system -- our banking system -- came out on top, if you like, amongst just a few in the world. and it proved that it was both resilient, well-regulated, and can cope with any crisis that comes our way. so using that as our benchmark, if you like, i think that we have a well regulated inking antem, a -- banking system, excellent regulator, and a set of banks in the country as well. nejra: thank you so much for joining us this morning. gordhan, the former

finance minister. really appreciate your time this morning. coming up on "bloomberg daybreak: europe," we speak to the ceo of barclays, jes staley. not miss this interview just after 7:00 a.m. london time. this interview, just after 7:00 a.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪

manus: it's "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny in dubai. in ouri am nejra cehic european headquarters in london. some of the are -- the economist is still with us. almost all participants in these minutes from the fed agree it is best to hold the balance sheet rolloff this year. we have a great chart we started showing up and start of this week, so it caveat that the -- a caveat that these predictions were made before the minutes. anyid not necessarily see kind of concern in the markets

either in the bond markets or the equity markets, but this was a more hawkish fed in the minutes rather than the decision, even though that was some of the interpretation. you you think that market reaction is to do with the balance sheet runoff? are you convinced we will see that runoff and this year from the minute -- end this year from the minutes? shamik: it probably will but it is less likely than it was. the main message is there is a inat deal more flexibility the fed sinking then there was maybe two months or three months ago, and the precise amount is not quite as important as the fact that the fed is thinking an active part of monetary policy. so as i said, probably. the runoff will end this year. it's not entirely clear. the composition of that balance sheet matters as well. manus: the composition does matter. what caught my eye in the

minutes was the reference to china, to europe, to brexit, to trade disputes. there seems to be this real cognizance about risk, reassuring the market we are vigilant, more vigilant than perhaps you thought we were. ah, and i think they are absolutely right to be more vigilant. as i said before, i think it's interesting that the focus was as much on international all conditions as it was on domestic. therefore, that is the sense in devotedtience will be to looking at the international picture as much as they will to the domestic picture. they clearly think it is actually, in an underlying sense, quite strong. , chiefshamik dhar economist at bny mellon investment management. you are off to radio. enjoy that with the team. 66ing up on the show, a percent drop in the full-year profits of a company.

the ceo joins us for his first interview of the day. you don't want to miss that conversation. what is going on in terms of assets, management, and consolidation in that industry. this is bloomberg. ♪

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nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am nejra cehic in london. inus: and i am manus cranny dubai. let's give you a little bit of breaking news from orange. the french telecoms operator. we have a beat. this is one of the most bruised sectors in europe. 3.3 billion euros, a beat on the estimates for the fourth-quarter adjusted ebitda. the revenue, also a beat. a dividend of seven cents per share. slightly lower versus 2018, so that is their guidance for this year.

just a little bit lighter on its feet, and of course, they rolled out an acquired rival.n their spanish a little bit of reprieve for them, a beat on the numbers. nejra: if the really interesting day for telecoms. a big number of them reporting is one of the worst performing sectors in europe. of course, 5g, a huge part of the story for the telecoms companies. thefonica is crossing bloomberg. fourth-quarter revenue coming in at 12.19 billion euros. the estimate, 12.3 7 billion euros, so that is a beat -- 12.37 billion euros, so that is a beat. it comes in at 4 billion euros. the estimate was 3.88 billion. the fourth-quarter revenue highest estimate, so

that is some of the numbers coming through. a lot of earnings this morning. a lot going on in markets around the world, so let's cover that, joining us from our bloomberg partner. here in london, at dani burger. asian stocks climbing. some could say on trade optimism, but is that optimism extending to india? if not, why not? way have seeing a little bit of reverse all. we have seen strength return as far as the indian industries are concerned. sensexty and the building on the strength we saw yesterday as well. the broader market index, the moving in tandem with the best markets. the word on the rupee, it remains largely flattish. the rupee has strengthened to just a tad bit against the dollar. we will be keeping an on that.

that is one sector that stands up in trade -- an eye on that. that is one sector that stands up in trade. on the back of that, you are gain forout nearly 1% that particular index followed by a lot of gains coming out for different banks. a couple of banks will move out of the corrective action framework of the r.b.i., so that is also a positive as far as public sector banking index is concerned. manus: ok. thank you very much. let's get to dani burger. she is looking at the asia-pacific session. there's a lot of punches rolling into asia, isn't there? coal,is the ban on aussie followed by positive trade talks and the pboc really pushing back in terms of any possible rate cuts. how does it translate to the asian session overall? dani: unfortunately, it translates to a headline level of things looking very wet, and it is exactly as use a.

all these different forces, be pboc, australia, we are coming down from the highs of the day, up eight basis points. i was ready to tell you just how high the msci asia-pacific index is trading, but i cannot do that. another market that gravity has finally caught up with is the gold market. we are seeing futures off by nearly .5%. is gaining dollar and reversing some of the appetite we have seen in recent sessions for gold. commodities,g with trading higher at a three-month high. this is because crude supplies came in weaker, less than some had expected a long with the decline in u.s. stockpiles. quickly, i also want to touch on jgb yields and take you into my terminal to show you that one because we have seen us lied into further negative -- a slide into further negative territory's. it really caps off this week with kuroda comments. as wen see a quick dip

are expecting perhaps more stimulus from the boj, but today, a decline in yields globally and especially from the boj with those dovish fomc minutes. jpmorgan saying that they do not see yields gaining anywhere in the globe, manus. dani burger, thank you so much. natural catastrophe losses have inn profits tumble at axa the first full year earnings since the purchase of xl group last year. france's biggest insurer has reported profits down. joining us now from paris for his first interview of the day is the ceo of axa. great to have you on the show. think is a much for joining us. as i mentioned, these are the first full results since the $15.3 billion purchase of xl group last year. the acquisition of xl group for

axa increased the group's exposure to natural disasters and help send profit tumbling by 60 said -- 66%. will investors be questioning your strategy of this acquisition given today's result? and thank youg, very much. it is true that when you look at the operation of performance, and that is the basis for the dividend, the operational performance has gone up by 6%, which is due to a very strong .ix of growth and profitability you are absolutely right. the natural catastrophes have been abnormally high last year and since we have consolidated for the first time the q4 of xl, which in itself, one quarter, amounts to a normal natural catastrophe. experienced much higher

loads than we normally experience, but everybody, all of the competitors, were hit by this. manus: good morning. welcome to the show. good to see you. ok, fine. you are down 66%. isn't this more a case in terms of that court is profits, isn't this a case of we just have to understand that you have bought were risk and that that is the very nature of axa now? there are going to be rough and tumble moments in earnings. you cannot control natural disasters, and that is what i have got to understand when i own this stock? thomas: so our strategy is very much in the transformation we have embarked on. the year 2018 was a very pivotal year where we have shifted significantly from the exposure of financial risk to the exposure of technical risk. in thatphes are category. the financial risk equally causes volatility and if you

look today, our sensitivity, relative to financial risk versus natural catastrophes, the natural catastrophes overall are much less harmful on our sovereignty than financial risk would be. nejra: yes, and speaking of that financial risk, thomas, high volatility in financial markets, lower interest rates in europe, slower economic growth, you know, the mix does look challenging. does it make you more cautious on axa's ability to reach its 2020 target? i understand the cfo has confirmed those targets, but are you a little bit more cautious? thomas: it is true that the environment is not easy. when you look at what drives us, it is very much the interest rates. its foreign exchange markets, the equity markets. we have been living with low interest rates now for quite some time. therefore, also, after the financial crisis, the strategy

of shifting away from financial market risks, we are used to that situation. we have prepared ourselves for it. and the strategic move towards technical risks is exactly the answer. we are well on the journey because 2018 has been a year on the one hand a large foresformation and there abnormal effects. 4% growth of our revenues, 6% growth in our profits, and i am very confident that we are well weathered for this period and i will do exactly as my colleague has done and confirm the ambition 2020 target. manus: it is good to know that the cfo and the ceo are on the same page on results day. you made reducing debt your number one priority. what is achievable in terms of guiding the market this year given the volatility that she has just headlined? we have three main

priorities this year. the number one priority is well, and we are well on the journey to that. u.s.ve quoted our subsidiary on the stock exchange. the biggest ipo of the year. we need to continue selling down. , our aim is to go to a corridor between 25% and 28% of debt ratio. this is possible. we have laid out clearly how we are going to get there. let me ask as well about the asset management flows. you saw no deterioration for in theanagement flows second half. can you give us a bit more guidance on what you expect for the flows for the rest of 2019? yes it management

challenged certainly by the market environments. in our case, we are very much focused on two main segments. one is the segment of six income. the other is the segment of aternative assets which are the moment quite highly demanded. everybody is looking for long-term liquid investments. is they special profile reason and for us not following the trend of the general industry since we are not in the etf business and since we are very focused when it comes to active equity. manus: focused on active equity, which brings me to your sentiment. you run a pretty large company with exposure. rally?trust this is it all down to the fed? if you look at the

fundamentals of the companies, they are very solid. so we should see a very strong market. what has changed over time is the environment, the reactions, the macro risk, and the volatility you see is a clear function of the nervousness of the market in terms of the macro risk, in terms of the geopolitical tensions, but also in terms of the questions. where is the interest rate policy of the large central banks going? nejra: thank you so much for joining us this morning. thomas , ceo of axa. asking the question on our mliv blog, when will london recover its pre-brexit vibrancy? will it ever? reach out to us on your bloomberg. shamik dhar is still with us.

when it's your response to that question? shamik: there are lots of factors that are determining london's relative weakness at the moment. brexit is a key one but the property market i think has been overextended in london for quite him time for lots of other reasons. also, we have seen, you know, reduction demand from russia, china, the middle east, it, -- etc. on brexit, of course, next week is the crucial week. the 27th of february vote. i am interested in what the theet started pricing in at moment. it seems to me that of the three possible outcomes, delay, deal, or no deal, the market seems to be putting a lot of emphasis on delay. with some possibility -- reasonable possibility, of the

deal going through. and i think that is right. i am just slightly nervous that we are may slightly underpricing the possibility of no deal. manus: that sort of seems to come through. in the near term is underpricing that. can i ask you about europe? story is another 90 days of angst. i am curious to get your take. if we go for tariffs from the u.s. on to europe, do you think that that is what would tip our bond markets in europe into negative? we are so close to negative territory. a defining moment for the ecb and rates in europe if we get tariffs? shamik: it could be. and clearly, i guess, one of the messages the u.s. administration is taking from the current tariff war is that tariffs work, or at least, they bring the issues to the table.

yes, it's possible the imposition of tariffs could be the thing that pushes the eurozone towards negative on deals. frankly, i think there are fundamental issues that are actually a bit more important. i think the issue with the eurozone remains the fact that it is frankly over dependent on global trade conditions and not generating enough domestic leave it its own to resilient to shocks like changes in tariffs, so i think there are two questions. one is what the reaction to the tariffs will be, but also what the implications for domestic policy both fiscal and monetary are. nejra: there is a lot of focus in asia on what we have been seeing coming out of japan and south korea. he bellwethers for global trade. how much weight to you put on those numbers that have been coming out for those countries in terms of your assessment of where the global economy goes from here? shamik: a lot. there clearly is a slowdown in

play. some of that is down to tear-related uncertainty and the impact of tariffs themselves, but i do not think it is the whole story, actually. there is an interesting story about global demand feeding and the global trade that has been may be underestimated slightly by the markets. so even though the u.s.-china relationship is the most single bilateral trade relationship in the world, bilateral trade flows only amount to 1% of total world trade. so the idea that that alone has sort of triggered a global slowdown i think it is difficult to sustain. manus: it depends whose numbers you actually read. the rba adding fuel to the slowdown. shamik dhar, chief economist at bny mellon investment management. will continue his conversation on bloomberg radio at 7:30 a.m. u.k. time. let's get you up to speed with the first word news. olivia how is joins us from london -- olivia joins us from london.

olivia: not necessarily its rate hikes. minutes from the january meeting show almost all policymakers agreed it is best to halt it this year. officials were divided over what it would take them to raise rates again. there was no suggestion of a cut. there are finally signs of agreement between the u.s. and china. bloomberg has learned to sides are working on multiple memoranda of understanding that would form the basis of a final trade deal. it is expected to take longer to reach a final agreement on big structural issues. china's chief negotiators may meet president on friday. the u.s. and e.u. are still far from a deal to avoid auto tariffs according to a man who described the contentious exchange. have arguedd to over trade policy. he says "our relationship has seen better times." hascompany says it

suspended a manager for gross misconduct. management declined by 3 billion swiss francs. the drop for the full year has been its worst for the fog deck it. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. hows, thank you so much. coming up on bloomberg, we speak to the cfo of -- after the french tech company reaffirmed its 2019 target. you can catch that exclusive interview, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny at our

headquarters in dubai. nejra: i am nejra cehic in london. let's turn to a computer services provider. it has confirmed is 2019 targets lineroposed a dividend in with its payout ratio of between 25% and 30% of net group income. joining us now from paris is the cfo of atos. great to have you on the program. the market will no doubt be paying attention to you reaffirmed your target -- reaffirming your targets. you said late last month that you are giving investors shares in your listed payments unit world line. this paves the way for more deals at both businesses. what kind of targets are you looking for in terms of acquisitions? yes, thank you and good morning. indeed, we announced at the end of last month our project that

will be submitted at the end of april to our shareholders to distribute 23% of our shares payment.listed create twoll players. one in payment and one in digital services, which is the new atos, and that is a very important move that will allow, on both sides, a new wave of the block meant -- deblockment. and a new wave of consolidation in the payment industry. side, we wills pursue acquisitions after the most recent one for a three-point 5 billion in digital billion in 3.5

digital services. one is cybersecurity, which is such an important area at the time we speak in the digital services area, and the second direction will be certainly more focused vertical industry-focused acquisitions to be able to build a breakthrough in several -- manus: hold those thoughts on the acquisitions. hold those thoughts on the acquisitions. we will circle back to that in a moment. just going to interrupt the interview for one second. breaking news for us in the gcc. cut its borrowing plans as it turns to a number of different things. its 2019said to cut borrowing by as much as 70%, so this is big, breaking news. it will impact our bond markets. the s&p said that the bonds are a bargain. that was the last comment we had from s&p when they were with us. market was overly reacting to

the concerns of oman. slashingaid to plan its borrowing requirements by as much as 70%. more on those markets when they get up and running. my apologies, but when we get hot headlines, we bring them to the markets for us. you were just hinting at it in term of the acquisitions, what the market wants to know is what kind of deals are you going to do? are they going to be in europe or beyond european borders? what is your next step? geography, we of are a global business. when you are in digital services, you ought to be in all geographies in europe and the u.s.. and you are else, we do not have priorities in terms of the geographical focus. what is important for us, it's important to develop organically. and secondly, in more focused

acquisitions in vertical areas ,o build very strong buffering which are dedicated to several industries. wayby industry, this is the the industry -- the digital services industry -- is organized now, by industry and by customer. nejra: how much are you willing to put on the table in terms of acquisitions? could you finance deals with atos shares? you know, i will not give a number, obviously. [indiscernible] >> but i think the story shows in the last 10 years -- nejra: thank you so much for joining us this morning.

unfortunately, we have run out of time. thank you for that exclusive interview. coming up on "bloomberg daybreak: europe," we speak to the barclays ceo, jes staley. don't miss that interview just after 7:00 a.m. london time. it is bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ this isn't just any moving day.

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manus: good morning from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." nejra: these are today's top stories. manus: cause for a cause? -- pause? showatest fed minutes policymakers see 2019 as the end -- will enough progress be made to avoid new tariffs next week? and there is optimism a brexit agreement is within week. even as there are warnings of a no deal downgrade.

our quiz report. we will hear from the ceo -- barclays report. we will hear from the ceo. ♪ manus: warm welcome to you. a couple of pieces of information. we are going to pivot to barclays. the numbers have hit. profit, 85 million of a profit versus a loss, year on year, 252 million. profit, 85 million, turning it around from a loss. this is a linchpin, institutional investor pushing for a seat on the board. lighter than the market had anticipated. the operating income for the bank, 4.4 3 billion, in line

with estimates. institutional investor pushing for a seat on the board, he has been rebuffed. it would be the corporate investment banking side we keep an eye on. revenue, 2.1 5 billion. markets, as they say, a small miss. we are going to speak to the ceo shortly. nejra: i had a conversation with bloomberg intelligence. he said if the trading numbers come in strong, the next question is what their plans are for capital return. announcing barclays a dividend. that is the headline. execute cash returns. something we will ask about in terms of more details. the cid talking about

revenue. fourth quarter, the red headline, 2.1 5 billion pounds. we do have headlines coming through on capital return. that is a big focus when we speak shortly. manus: absolutely. back 1.6 billion pounds, lloyd's gave back 1.7 5 billion pounds. i want to bring you the breaking bydline, a ratings review s&p. they have downgraded nissan to a -on a weak chance of profits to recover. this is a downgrade on weak profit outlook, week profit recovery. that is in the eye of the storm. due to a slowdown in sales, the key markets of china.

the likelihood it will take time to stabilize management. anglo american, they have delivered their earnings-per-share. anglo does not does it point. the market has estimated 2.42. in terms of copper production, they expect 630,000-660,000 tons this year. $2.8 billion. a beat on earnings-per-share. to get aoing dollar per share. that is a beat of what the estimates were. a little bit of engineering on your side. bring you those numbers. four year adjusted, 1.9 3 billion pounds.

with then line estimate. same cost growth on aircraft carriers cuts contract margins. sales, the estimate was 18.57. a slight miss. the full-year dividend per inre, adjusted, absolutely line with estimates. let's get a look at the markets. we are 55 minutes from the start of cash equity trading in europe. features in the u.s., on a firmer footing. it looks like a firm footing for european equity features as well. you can dissect them. think for yourself whether you saw a hawkish by from what we got. the focus was the fact most officials sought and to the balance sheet roll out. , looks like wees could see further gains today.

there is trade optimism. there were nuances below the surface. risk rally carrying on. doesn't look like the $15 trillion of equity value has run out of steam yet. i like the line, the godfather of market value saying all this worry about recession has gone too far. was it really that dovish? they expect one rate hike. possibly even into 2020. you are seeing a dip on bond prices. juliette saly in singapore. >> it has been an interesting session and asia. the asia pacific index higher for a fourth session.

china turned see south about an hour ago. not be looking at the benchmark interest rate. reuters saying they could look at more rrr cuts. that sent chinese stocks lower. we had that news coming through imports from a story in might be stopped at the port call. stopped at the port. that was before the us trillion chairman had closed. closing higher at 0.7%. assets we are looking at. let's look at the aussie dollar and aussie bonds. the aussie falling by 1% against the greenback. we also had bill evans saying he could have rate cuts as well.

up by 0.25%. thank you so much. let's turn to commodities. platinum group metals. struggled.siness has ceo,e joined by the joining us now, thank you for joining us. on the strikes. vowing to widen that action. hope ofee any compromise with the union? good morning. obviously there is hope for compromise. i think we can compromise as

the as we don't undermine other unions that have signed a wage agreement. i am full in the not-too-distant future, because you are seeing the desperation of the union trying to involve a broader industry which i do not believe they can do legally. -- we havead proposed some compromises and we can look forward to the strike ending in the not-too-distant future. you are faced with a challenge of restructuring this business. we have headlines, up to 6000 jobs could go. what is the reality of this restructure? is it going to be as many jobs as that to right size the business? >> i am hoping it is not a total of 6000. when we make announcements and we do it in line with the

section of the labor relations act, we have to put up what is the potential number of affected jobs. process to find alternatives to retrenchment. we have run these sort of processes a number of times. our experience is the retrenchment is less than the total number of affected people. one of the main reasons is if you transfer a person from an unprofitable shop to a business ist that is profitable, that -- they are affected but they do not lose their job. sh number.r there is a possibility 6000 butle could lose their jobs i am hopeful that will not be the outcome. >> you are hope all but it is still -- hopeful but it is still possible.

i am wondering what your appetite is for more m&a after the deal is completed. quite ask our approach to m&a -- theur approach to m&a is right opportunity to enter a commodity or specific area of the business. value, extent, to create you have to be countercyclical. you have to have a strong balance seat when other people don't. you have to see the potential exactly what we did.other we leveraged