matt: this is bloomberg daybreak middle east. the u.k. parliament will vote on the brexit deal later. its weakest at since the financial crisis. >> singapore is the latest to ban boeing 737 max-b the boeing 737 max-b but the faa says the airplanes remain airworthy. finallyia's president to popularows pressure and says he will not seek reelection.

>> 5:00 a.m. in london. in dubai.f, low >> theresa may has a new deal but is it enough to bring the brexiteers on board? the pound is ripping up the script. cbi said if the vote fails could collapse by 8%. avoid a hard brexit and they could add to present. is it enough on the new deal to save the brexiteers? stocks heading for their biggest increase since january. because of a rebound in u.s. tech shares. the new guy -- the need -- the

nikkei. let us check in on the first world -- first word headlines. boeing was the biggest on the s&p 500 as it tries to deal with the crisis of confidence in its aircraft. the faa says the plane remains airworthy despite a second fatal crash in five months. the regulator will require flight control enhancements of by april. it is boeing's best-selling aircraft generating almost a third of its profit. one of africa's longest-serving leaders is bowing to popular pressure and will not seek reelection. the algerian president had wanted a fifth term but massive protests persuaded him to abandon his campaign. he says the election will be

postponed and the government will be replaced. he also promises a new constitution before the end of the year. president trump has presented a budget which seeks one of the largest cuts in domestic adding more also than $8 billion for his border wall. .he plan it is heading for almost certain rejection in congress and could trigger a new government shutdown. new research by bloomberg economics shows global growth at its weakest since the financial crisis a decade ago. expansion is put at 2.2% on a quarter by quarter basis down from 4% in the middle of 2018. in the u.s., the u.k., canada, and the euro area are slowing although there are signs that china is stabilizing.

global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. has wonheresa may changes to her brexit bill raising the chances of a deal passing parliament later. during late-night talks in strasburg with juncker, she secured assurances on the so-called irish backstop including the measure cannot be permanent. >> crucially, one of the request was that itt has should be possible to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements. we have secured a clear timetable that enables the backstop as defined currently to be replaced with alternative arrangements. >> the backstop is an insurance policy. nothing more, nothing less.

if it were ever to be used, it will never be a threat. let us get straight to jodi schneider. what is the just of the new wording on the backstop that theresa may is pinning her hopes on that it will get her brexit across the line in this meaningful vote in parliament? >> 17 days to go until the deadline. what this does is offer three new documents that basically provide legal assurances that there will -- that the u.k. will not be trapped in this backstop. that they will not be there in definitely which has been the fear of brexiteers that they would be trapped forever by this. the question is -- is that enough?

it will be scrutinized before the vote as to whether there is enough assurance, is it a real ear and t and what does it really provide legally? enoughoes not provide and the vote goes down, the will there be a no deal brexit and then there will be another vote on another extension. thissa may is banking that will basically get her the vote that she needs. heard clear words from mr. juncker that there will be no new negotiations on brexit. deal ando take this get it through parliament. what are the chances that she can be successful? >> that is the question. is it going to be a enough?

be enough?ing to she had a defeat in january and was told to come back with more legal assurances. we need a better irish backstop deal and she has now gotten it. marginscertainly -- the are what will be important. is likely to be better margins. we will end up with a delay. manus: a short delay or a long delay. what may it all mean? michael is from -- rainer michael preiss. i was fascinated by juncker's line.

maybe this is the staying in the tail he refers to that if you do not vote for this and ask for an extension. --what doake of this you make of this? >> it is more of the same. there needs to be a hard decision which is uncomfortable and complicated. people have different views on the political spectrum. so far both sides seem to be muddling through. youssef: we look at the one-month risk reversal for cable and the pound and that has dropped to a 10 week low. we have done a survey in terms of what is expected on tuesday and the pound may end up anywhere in the range of 10% given the gulf between the two possible outcomes. how do you tell traders to position themselves around this? , it is veryer

binary. the big question is global growth and the uk's position in a global economy that is potentially slowing down than the market has previously priced in. brexit in that scenario would make it more difficult for the u.k. to reposition itself post-brexit. i don't think of short-term fluctuations in the british pound. long-term more about industrial and economic policy. don't forget this is an increasingly global world. and this is against the background of quantitative easing. will get hopefully some clarity in the next 72 hours. but the market has already begun

to position itself for soft brexit or a delay. .e see assets in the etf they are back to 2017 levels because the assumption is not a delay or a softer brexit. would give her fiscal latitude and a rejuvenation of the domestic side. are you hearing that from clients? looking ati am also this in the context of global markets. we had a meaningful correction globally and almost indiscriminate selling but now it is almost indiscriminate buying. , we havek. market deeper, local issues but the risk on trade is still very much in place. the only question is how sustainable is it? i would argue that we have seen the cycle top in october 2018

when the s&p was high. i think we have seen the top of global risk. going forward, i see a downside and more repricing. global economic growth is pointing downward while markets -- manus: that press yet thought you -- that pressient thought to have. michael will stay with us. still ahead, singapore is the latest nation to ground to the weing 737 max-b planes and look at what boeing may do to address the concerns. global growth fears continue as new research shows expansion at its weakest since the financial crisis a decade ago. we will flesh this out in a little more detail. this is bloomberg. ♪

we are currently looking at a live shot of the financial center. actually not. let us check in on the markets. this is how things were shaping up in the last trading session. dubai up 0.5%. key gauge falling below the 200 day moving average for the first time since may. a lot of pressure on saudi stocks as well. investors taking money off the table? clearly they are. down 0.25%. tesla ceo elon musk has told a new york judge that a pair of tweets he sent last month were not improper. wants elon musk held in

contempt. he cited his constitutional right to free speech. trying to comply with restrictions. more thanecalling 80,000 vehicles in canada because of fear about their airbags. the company says the cars affected were manufactured in 2001. the total number of recalls could top more than a million cars if the recall extends to the u.s. carlos ghosn failed in his attempt to join a board meeting. to forme companies want one single board to oversee the alliance and as the architect of the partnership, carlos ghosn wanted to explain himself personally to the directors. but the court rejected his bid.

for that.ank you let us talk about new research by bloomberg economics showing global growth is at its weakest since the financial crisis from a year ago. -- from a decade ago. the 4% in therom middle of 2018. the oecd adds to the sour mood saying the momentum in the u.s., are declining.o china is stabilizing. underscoring your thoughts on where global growth is headed in terms of what this means -- we have put together a charge. morgan stanley putting out a warning saying do not purchase into goldilocks. s&p had its best day since january. do you subscribe to that view?

there is always something to buy or sell especially on the technical basis. we potentially could have seen the multiyear top. then, we have had a sharp selloff because of the realization that global growth is potentially slowing down more than what people have priced in. suggestion of a recovery because of a dovish fed. i think werd, potentially could see a possibility of repricing again when the market realizes that what uae has done is frontloaded growth. if global growth continues to weaken, security prices and equities need to readjust. manus: those markets could be visceral in their readjustment.

michael, the tracker that we have suggests growth could be the lowest since 2009. what is it that could push as into what is referred to in this article as a self sustained downward momentum? is it china not doing enough to stimulate? is it america slowing down or some other extraneous factor we have not touched on? >> a combination of all of these things but fundamentally it is the belief that the fed is stimulus canand fix all fundamental problems. that is not the case. what we have seen as many economies are fundamentally deteriorating while asset prices are high and going up. the realization that we are at the end of the cycle of qe and there are not many other opportunities left to stimulate

the economy's. once that realization sinks income of the market will shift and pay a higher price for better companies to balance the balance sheets. is no: strong growth longer something you can take for granted globally. with the shift happening from some of the central banks, turning dovish, where does at least you with some of the convinced -- conviction calls? >> number one, we are looking at raising cash because it earns a we haventerest-rate and higher conviction calls. assets could outperform in the next 5-10 years. gold is of interest because it came out of a multiyear bear market and also hedged against bank policy mistakes. slowdown.nomic inflationary pressure in some

parts of the global economy. dothat scenario, gold could quite well. it is still out of favor with many investors. it is a bit of a contrarian call. manus: i am also interested in your call on china. bullmarkets aplenty -- markets aplenty in the shanghai composite. you say the world is overly long and history might be rather disingenuous to the chinese when we write to it. how worried are you about this run-up in china? >> if you look at your bloomberg data, the world's worst performing market often turns out to be the best-performing market, as in the case of china. as also in turkey. is it more of a momentum trade or is it sustainable?

question that. i would be increasingly taking a more technical stance even with china. the trade disputes with the u.s. are so deep rooted there is no easy solution. and it is it -- and it is against the background of global economic slowdown. we will see what the response mechanism is from the central banks. thank you very much. from taurusss wealth advisors. singapore joins a growing list maxountries to ground 737 flights after the fatal crash in ethiopia. we bring you the latest on the escalating crisis for boeing. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: singapore is following china in grounding the boeing 737 max-b following the weekend crash in ethiopia. u.s. aviation officials have deemed the aircraft is airworthy. working on software and procedural enhancements after a second fatal crash in five months. boeing shares fell sharply. stephen engle has the developing story. where do we stand right now? and this was at pivotal moment so far in backing boeing. comes out with a blanket grounding of this aircraft, general speaking come around the world you would see a domino effect of other regulators issuing a grounding until the of that -- until the investigation can indicate if the aircraft is safe or not.

the investigation continues but the faa says the aircraft has continued airworthiness. found no conclusive evidence linking the ethiopian flight and the lion air crash less than five months prior in october in indonesia. issueds a global no around the world. at the same time, we are seeing not only individual airlines around the world that also individual regulators going unilaterally and grounding the flights. airlines risk either reputational damage or profit depending on which decision they take. to ground or not to ground. grounding allore flights in and out, even other carriers. the airlinehave had

of south america, aeromexico and are among thethey carriers grounding this aircraft. yousef: let us assume i am not comfortable to fly as a passenger in this aircraft. our airlines going to have -- are airlines going to have to respond and given? -- and give in? >> that will be a decision made by individual airlines. point, the faa is all right with the fixes provided by boeing. they will be providing updates to the highly questioned flight control system that was likely a contributor to the lion air crash. they will also do updates to the

manual and training. or, if you are a passenger and you go with your gut and head and say until it is conclusive that these cases are not linked, i will not be flying it. we have already heard from many flight attendants and their association that they do not want to fly on this aircraft. yousef: we will leave it there. thank you for those insights. here is what is coming up next. saudi shares. could they slip for a third straight session? what is behind that? and we will check back in with the asia equity session that continues to make gains with japanese stocks driving the leadership of that index. asian stocks rising the most since january. bloomberg dollar index a little below the flat line. unchanged.lds

as mp equity futures a little bit higher. there was a story overnight about the tech merger news and the upgrade to the apple link driving sentiment. this is bloomberg. ♪

1:30 a.m. in new york. we are shaking off the five-day funk on the s&p 500. because we arey having the biggest rally since january. morgan stanley -- do not buy into goldilocks. the skeptics. look at apple. that is the one you want to keep an eye on. 10 hence toica, top purchase apple. these are reverberations for the supply chain for apple. we shake up the first word

headlines every day. theresa may has won changes to her brexit deal. after late-night talks with eu juncker, assurances on the irish backstop. including that the measure cannot be permanent. >> crucially, one of the ry request is that it should be possible to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements. we have a clear timetable that enables the backstop as defined currently to be replaced with alternative arrangements. the backstop is an insurance policy, nothing more, nothing less. the intention is for it not to be used. and if it were ever to be used to come it will never be a threat. annabel: oil began the week on

the rebound as saudi arabia moves to extend supply cars and nationwide power outage threatens production in venezuela. opec's loss of market power will continue into the next decade according to the iaea as u.s. shale oil thrives. march 1989 saw britain tim burton published a paper on how digital objects could be identified. of universal conductivity drives much of the world today. remarkably, he declined payment for his idea and offered it royalty-free. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. here is juliette saly now with a check on the markets. session ofgreat

buying a cross asian markets today. the biggest rise we have seen since january. indian markets extending the gain from yesterday seeing it close at a five months high -- five month high. elections were announced their yesterday. up by 1.2%. japanese nikkei getting a boost from tech a players. and a weaker yen as investors are moving back into more risky assets. brent crude holding onto its gains. we just heard about the extension cuts being extended. asian stocks on track for a second session of solid gains today. i very much. let us get back to this part of the world because saudi stocks

extended its loss for a second day. contributedsector most of this. you look at the increasing pressure that saudi has been under. the best performers year to date are the classic players. forhis a buying opportunity you as prices have come down as much as they have in the last few trading sessions? we in our portfolios are fully invested. we see opportunities in the gcc equity markets. are ourabia and kuwait favorite countries. we focus on the banks in these countries. a couple of factors driving pricing at this time. one of the most important is the index inclusion which will be playing out in the next year.

this thursday will be the first tranchef -- the first and we expect passive money coming into saudi arabia and kuwait and other markets included in the index. manus: you have drawn our attention to the valuations. you make the point that we are trading at a healthy premium. we can use any number of valuation metrics. this differential, does that suggest we are at the top end of this trading range? it is thehis time, investment flows and the foreign inclusion factors driving investment considerations at this time. if we were to look around the gcc, one of our favorite investment opportunities is in abu dhabi islamic bank. shares traded seven or eight

times giving a yield of 6%. we are very comfortable with the management team. did you expect any more mergers or acquisitions in the united arab emirates? even the first abu dhabi bank could be open to a merger. is this a signal that more could be coming? eric: i think the recent announcement with the abu dhabi commercial bank will end the merger consolidation in the banking sector for some time. i think it will be years before we find another banking consolidation story coming to market. manus: on the credit side -- we will talk to moody's in a short time but we want your take on credit in the region. we have had moves on oman. we have the qataris coming to the market. as the central banks

around the world, particularly the fed, have gone to ease monetary conditions, we have seen a rush of issuers come to the market to take advantage of an easier fundraising environment. qatar come and export development bank. these are issues that investors in the region have snapped up and been quick to invest in. with the easier financial conditions we expect the emirates to come into the market. and oman. bahrain.as fa we have seen some changes in the oil market. morgan stanley made some changes.

we had deliberations between opec and non-opec. the upcoming meeting is coming into focus. the oil price is getting a bit of a bump. eric: we think there is more upside but it will basically be on the back of supply cuts or supply disruptions. theirarabia has based budget on an $80 average oil price for the year so i think we will see them work in all manners to get the oil price up to that level for the average of the year. manus: some of those factors may be weighing less. eric swats, it great to get your take on the markets. sterling jumps as theresa may has a last-minute dash to strasburg yielding a new brexit. we will have analysis from moody's up next. that is up next and this is

bloomberg. ♪

manus: theresa may has won changes to her brexit bill raising the chances of a deal passing parliament later today. after late night talks with juncker, may secured a assurances on the so-called irish backstop including that the measure cannot be permanent. for theld this mean u.k. at economy and its credit rating? we are now joined by the chief credit officer for moody's, colin ellis. tell me this. you have not had a conference call yet but given everything you have heard and the new assurances she has, do you think her bill will pass the parliament vote tonight? be very think it will close. if i had to bet on it today, right now, i would say she will

fall just short but it should be a lot closer than it was in january when she lost by a record margin of over 200 votes. these changes that she has achieved are all about appeasing the so-called european research group which is a core of conservative mps that really starko leave the eu on terms. the real challenge will be with -- will this win enough people around to compensate for some conservative mps who do not like the deal at all in its current form. quite a bit of damage has been done to the u.k. economy because of the brexit uncertainty. -- if they can gets pushed down the road, is the damage going to accelerate?

how are you looking at it from a credit perspective? colin: uncertainty is never a good thing. if you avoid a no deal brexit by kicking the can down the road, if the choice is to reject theresa may's deal and buy more time, that process of buying more time would be less damaging than the u.k. crashing out without a deal. someve already seen negative effects since the brexit vote itself. ,ven relative to our best case you could see as much as 4% of gdp fall off the u.k. economy in the long term in the event of a no deal and that is what matters for us. when we are talking about credit rating, we are rarely focusing on short-term disruptions.

it is more about the medium-term prospects. note, the editors wrote an article and they said theresa may's deal could reduce gdp by 5.5% over 10 years. could drop byenue nearly 2% and there in lies the issue for you. we -- our approach encompasses a whole range of issues. we talked about economic strength around growth and how rigid the economy is. we talked about fiscal strength. we also talked about institutional strength. one thing that really matters for large, developed economies with low growth rates is the ability of policymakers to get creditdone to avoid issues arising. in the past, we have had a high score for the u.k. it has come under pressure and

we have revised it down a little bit. yousef: how does europe find the balance within the uncertainty andhave coming from brexit the process, how do you find the balance between austerity and stimulus? economic activity is lacking. time for an update on your end. colin: relative to 2007, there are only three countries that have lower debt to gdp ratio. seen public debt rise quite substantially. we also know that some of the intitutional fragilities there.o area are the reason we have different credit ratings for different countries is impart reflective of the fact that they have

different positions. manus: what does it take to put a broader europe in recession? what does it take to knock us over the edge -- a hard brexit? what are you most worried about on recession watch in europe? colin: germany came close. it probably would not take that much. just the normal cyclical -- might be enough to push europe into recession. to stand back and think about it from a credit perspective, we don't focus too much on the short-term cyclical developments. it would be whether it told us more about the structural fragility -- that would be of more concern to us. yousef: back to this side of the world, we have had some action .aken on oman

in terms of reducing the rating. give me your topline thought on ist you think of what oman currently doing and what they need to do to get back into the game? colin: we down -- we downgraded oman a week ago. we said at the time that the key money government was likely to prove more difficult given its social and economic objectives. you think the government this year is going to run a financial deficit of around 10% of gdp, the external deficit is there at

9.5% of gdp this year. there are some real challenges to correct the debt dynamics. and to address the kind of fiscal weakness we see inherent in this economy. and we are less confident that that is going to play out going forward. : ellis, it has been a pleasure having guilt thank you for stopping by. a report in the financial times ubs top female bankers at has criticized switzerland's biggest lender over its practice of using maternity leave as a reason to impose restrictions on bonuses. spoke about the allegations against the bank and their workplace culture. isi think what the program trying to do is bridge the gap between this very real challenge that ubs and all large banks have in that we want to have more women in senior leadership roles but at the same time if you look at the pool of ready now talent it is limited. all organizations are chasing the same talent. the best we can do is cannibalize our own talent.

what we have found is there is an amazing source of professional talent out there, untapped, women and men but mainly women who have for whatever reason decided they need to take a step back. , they are stepping back and a five years after practicallyt is impossible to get back. what the career comeback does is legitimize the fact that you have had a career break. and that is how we have managed to pull people back to ubs. not because they have worked for us before. >> what is your biggest challenge now? what other challenges are you facing at the bank when it comes to diversity and inclusion? broad approach to

diversity and inclusion but the number one priority is to increase the number of women we have in leadership roles. that is our aspirational goal. public aboutvery that goal. our execution strategy is simple. if we want more women in leadership roles, there are only three things we could do differently. higher more women. -- hire more women. retain the women that we have. promoting more women. conspire together to create the number change which means we will have more women in the future. >> there was a report that top the bank isrs -- using maternity leave to cut their bonuses. is this happening? ubset us be clear that

seriously incredibly and for multiple years has pay equity.eir -- the story came out this morning that looks at a number of women raising concerns in the wealth management business. they raised those last year. when they raised those concerns, it was a into them and chance for us to look at those controls and processes that we have in place to see if they are working and if they could be improved. threek a look and we did key things to make sure the processes are more robust. the first thing was that we could never do enough to make sure that managers had good guidelines. improving the communication. lining -- was rebased rebaselining.

the third action we have taken is much improved monitoring to make sure that the things we are intending to happen in the business are actually happening. important, not just for me in my role, but for the whole of the board that we hear concerns from our employees if they have them and if people feel they have been negatively impacted, we need them to speak up as those women did. is your design for the comeback plan putting you steps back? >> not at all. i welcome them. when we have an environment where people can raise hands and express their concerns, it gives me the opportunity to look at it. my role gives me the platform to

look at it with the right people who can get things done. still have is we progress. every organization on the planet still has progress to make but we need to keep focused on it and keep at it for the long-term. >> do you think the culture of banking has changed where more women feel they can raise their voice? >> i believe that is the case and not just for women. employees and this industry i hope feel now completely different than they were precrisis. we have put some much effort, not just ubs, to make sure that we have a culture where people can speak up and make sure we have multiple channels for people to do that. and take it incredibly seriously when we hear them. morning news briefing is available. the resident editor is christine.

elone never far from an musk a story. this time it is about his response in court to his recent tweets. >> elon musk is in court over allegations that he should be held in contempt of court. to say waswyer had that the tweets that he made only reiterated previous disclosures already made. himselfn musk said for was that the posts were not improper. he cited his right to free speech. that he has made numerous attempts to comply with the restrictions. and he has been tweeting a lot less. ironic, in the last hour, he has been out on twitter tweeting back and forth and talkingnt users

about store closures and price increases at tesla. what he said about store closures was that they were discussed with the board and the reason sales managers may not have known about the store closures -- remember employees -- he said itd would have resulted in lakes. interesting. no decision yet in the case. ceo has beenoogle in hot water because the lawsuit alleges that he bypassed the board to allocate stock grants. what happened there? >> there was a revised lawsuit that says back in the summer of 2014 larry page essentially approved a stock grant worth when i did $50 million for the creator of android and he bypassed the board and did that without their approval. at that time, andy rubin was

under investigation by the company for misconduct. it is unclear if larry page knew about the allegations and if he did, how much he knew but ruben went on to use it the stock grant to secure a better severance package for himself. the bottom line -- this story adds to criticism out there regarding google's board not being strong enough. it raises questions about who companyt and how the manages cases of sexual harassment for top-level executives. ratingthere was a big from merrill lynch yesterday on apple. april 25 will be about video. what do we expect? >> apple is going all in on its services business which makes sense. users do not upgrade apple

iphones as frequently. we expect three things to be unveiled including a video streaming service to compete with netflix and amazon. and a magazine subscription service integrated with the apple news app coming on the back of apple's acquisition of a digital magazine subscription service. and the third thing is we are expecting to see an update on apple pay which will lay the support for a new partnership apple has gone into to create a new credit card. yousef: thank you so much to christine burke from the daybreak team. asian stock session is strongly higher. the msci asia-pacific index heading to the biggest day since january. the gains are being led by stocks in japan up by about 2%. thes: you can hardly call dollar rocking it out. had an upgrade.

and theresa may may get a deal. a lightness in the dollar. s&p futures are breaking high. can we get above 2800? europe continues after this. this is bloomberg. ♪ . .

♪ >> good morning from westminster. parliament votes on brexit today. manus: manus cranny live in dubai. this is bloomberg daybreak with today's top stories. nejra: theresa may strikes a last-minute agreement with the e.u. to revise the backstop,, but will it be enough to win parliament support today? jean-claude juncker says it is the only option. >> let us be clear about the choice. might not, or brexit happen at all. nejra: boeing woes continue.

singapore is the latest nation max, but the 737 faa says the plane is airworthy. shares are down after the fatal crash. and we speak to the ceo of volkswagen about going electric and his fight with labor, ahead of his first meeting with investors since taking over the company. manus: welcome to "daybreak europe." one of the beasts of european autos, vw finalizes numbers. billion, profit, $2.2 the market expected $3.3 billion. an operating return on sales, 320% down from 4.2% last year --

3.2%, down from 4.2% last year. a special item for diesel-gate, $1.9 billion. but this is the future. the future is electric. there will be 70 new electric models by 2028 from vw. sales,'s return on 17.4%, versus 18.5% in 2017. nejra, good morning. it is chilly, but i believe there is a deal. will the house behind you take it? good morning. nejra: good morning, manus. you can probably see the winds picking up outside westminster. which way will the wind blow for theresa may? she's back to the u.k. with three new legal texts around the backstop, but she doesn't have the power to unilaterally exited, or a a time limit. will it be enough for time the met?

the attorney -- for parliament? the attorney general will give his recommendation. sterling has been reacting, jumping on the news yesterday and today. manus: you just look at the pound, i saw a variety of calls. we just had a conversation with moody's. their best case scenario for getght is that she will not her deal through parliament. she will not be thwarted as much as she was a couple weeks ago. manus -- in terms of what happens next, i was going to say, if she doesn't get it through parliament, what happens next, there is a vote on a no deal brexit. if that is voted down, there is a vote to extend the deadline. that is perhaps why sterling is rallying, accepting that extension. manus: nejra, you know what was fascinating about juncker's

comments, this deal or no brexit at all. what is the cost of the extension to brexit? that is what i thought. to the broader markets first of all. splendid day for s&p futures, shaking off the funk with the biggest rally since january. through the 200 day moving average. morgan stanley says don't believe everything you see, and you might get more of a downdraft in earnings, a bigger growth story than you think. ile, i thought i -- apple, thought i would put that in. upgraded by bank of america and merrill lynch to buy from neutral. an overshoot in sentiment on the revisions. price target of $210. nymex crude up again. venezuela, opec cuts, the most

prescient issues in the mind of the markets. oil recovery and a slight risk-on mood. nejra? nejra: isn't it funny how things turned around, from last week, when we talked about the s&p 500 dropping below the 200 day moving average. it is back about it, and tech shares rallying. apple, you mention. the treasury yield, 10 year, up two basis points and stabilization in retail sales data, after it was bad in january. the story about risk-on today, the yen is the only g10 currency declining against the dollar today. look at cable. it was on fire earlier, as much as one p -- 1.1. let's check in on the markets in asia with juliette saly. strong gains today. great to see you.

juliette: we saw the msci asia pacific with the biggest one-day gain since january. hte nikkei closed higher, powered by tech stocks on the back of the nvidia deal and the weaker yen. a little bit of a flat session in australia and jakarta. a very strong rally in indian stocks, closing at a five-month high yesterday, and up again by about 1%. separatefter two opinion polls suggest prime minister modi's government is on track to win those elections. stocks in detail. we mentioned singapore has been the latest to ground the max 737's, and we saw singapore airlines shares down 0.2%. they were up 1.5% ahead of this announcement.

hai in focus in taipei, after we saw the foxconn chairman talk about the microsoft deal. he said they are unlikely to suffer any losses from that lawsuit. also watching the course the rally in tech. an interesting japanese tech stock, iphones are improving each year thanks to this japanese firm. we have seen a broad-based rally on the back of the nvidia deal and the apple upgrade. nejra: juliette saly, in singapore. thank you so much. the tech news reverberating through the asian session as well. back to brexit. theresa has won changes to her brexit bill after a chaotic day in london. the prime minister had late-night talks in a e.u. presidenth jean-claude juncker. around midnight, they announced the deal. >> what we have secured, very

clearly, ne -- the backstop cannot be permanent. >> the backstop is an insurance policy. nothing more, nothing less. the intention is not for it to be used, like an insurance policy. and if it were ever to be used -- >> we secured within this very at enabledtable, th the backstop as defined currently to be replaced with alternative arrangements. >> let us be crystal clear about this choice. it is this deal, or brexit might not happen at all. nejra: sterling has rallied on the back of the midnight agreement, but it is unclear whether theresa may has done enough to win parliament support. joining us is will hobbs, barclays chief investment officer. very kind of you to join us on this dismal day here, outside westminster. pop in sterling this morning. mliv question of the day, how

high or low will the pound go on brexit outcomes? i know it is difficult to ask, but your thoughts now? will: thank you for having me on. one of the things we look at from a value perspective, sterling doesn't look one million miles away from fair value at the moment. for us, it is brave souls who try strong directional bets on sterling right now. it is in thrall to the political situation. i'm reminded of a comment by my own bosses, when the main protagonists themselves don't know what's next, we should worry about second-guessing them. there are probably better opportunities out there than sterling, but we will watch with interest. manus: good morning. i think everybody is watching with bated breath. i spoke to moody's, who said that the deal will not pass, maybe not by as much as last time, but it will not task in their view, in which case we moved to next steps, which would

be taking a hard brexit off the table and potentially an extension. uncertainty, next they may ask for an extension, but it is what the e.u. may inflict upon them to give them that extension. er isat what junck referring to, and how much of an extension would that be? will: really interesting question. one of the rumors doing the rounds is that the e.u. may only offer a long extension. no point of an extension until june or whatever. and you then have to have a serious period of time, which might force those who have been campaigning for brexit their entire political lives to think twice about may's deal. that may mean you get a meaningful vote three. i assume the vote won't come through, although that may be too far. it shows there's an awful lot to

play for here, and that may be one of the things the e.u. his thinking about. nejra: how would you position around u.k. equities, if the pound is difficult to call? talking domestic versus international stocks. will: very interesting question, again. one thing we look at from the ftse point of view, you see the currency volatility, and look at the dividend yields. right now, a 5% dividend yield. yield, the gap between that and the bond yield is the biggest we have seen in 118 years of data. the bargain hunters who can look through this noise all right to sniff around. look at u.k. stocks, but tactically it is difficult. the problem, it leaves you with cyclical skin in the game with an economy, a global economy that still looks ok, for a little bit longer. nejra: many people have said the u.k. to a -- manus: many people have said the u.k. to a

certain extent, the market has been underweight in exposure. looking at the ftse 250 in etf's, a slight disadvantage. the flow back to etf, back 22017 levels. it ratcheted higher. the market is almost preparing itself for some kind of softer brexit, which gives some latitude and reprieve? will: manus, i think that is right. one of the things from an international investor's point of view, sterling has been a deterrent for some people looking for any kind of value around the u.k. what you found for international been ars, most have little underweight u.k. assets. maybe reputation is part of that story. so if you see some sort of deal, you expect to see some sort of

catch-up. positionally in the gilt market, you could see a bouncing u.k. assets in general with a deal, but not something to necessarily chase. nejra: glad you mentioned gilts, because we have a viewer question on them. i know you are underweight on government and investment-grade, but people say the gilt market is particular, because of pension fund demand. would you short gilt? will: right now the answer is no right now the answer is. we are underweight everywhere about the u.k. at the moment. we are standing aside from the u.k., because the u.k. has very specific situations going on with the gilt market and currency, and that is something we don't feel we have an edge on. we are underweight more broadly. you guys talked about the rally so far this year, the goldilocks rally. the latest incoming data tells us the bond market is being too pessimistic about growth and inflation globally.

so it is about treasury, european bonds, not so much the gilt market. nejra: don't worry -- manus: don't worry about goldilocks. i leave you with this. takesa may's deal would 5.5% off of gdp over the next 10 years. it would drop income to the treasury by nearly 2%. it might not necessarily be the best deal of all according to the data. go get a cup of coffee, warm up. barclays chief investment officer, staying with nejra and myself. months and months of political tremors over brexit have shaken westminster to its core. but what about the london financial sector? will it remain as relevant after the u.k. leaves the e.u.? a new study found many firms in the city are building up operations elsewhere in anticipation of brexit. dani burger looks at some of the numbers. just the timing on this,

as lawmakers are voting this afternoon on the revised deal. 275study says at least financial firms are moving some businesses from the city of london, just to cope with brexit . this is by a london based think tank, definitely the most detailed yet on the impact of brexit on financial services. dublin might be the biggest beneficiary. 100 relocations. that put the irish capital just ahead of luxembourg, with 60. and then paris, frankfurt and and stremme all with over 30 -- amsterdam all over 30. they also identify over 5000 jobs on the line, a figure expected to rise in coming years. perhaps a better measure of the impact of brexit his the scale of assets and funds transferred out of the city. banks and investment banks moved 800 billion pounds of assets from britain. in other words, that's 10% of banking assets in the country.

all this really does is throw into question whether london can remain the financial capital it once was, before the 2016 referendum. lovely work. thank you so much, dani burger. weing up later on bloomberg, speak exclusively to former u.k. prime minister tony blair. don't miss that interview at 5:00 p.m. london time. coming up, singapore joins china and indonesia to become the latest nation to ground a 737 max planes. we look at what boeing may do to address the growing concerns. when you travel to work, tune into bloomberg radio live on your mobile device or dav digital -- dab digital radio in the london area. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." in westminster for today brexit vote. manus: manus cranny at middle

eastern headquarters in dubai. asian stocks on the upside. the apple upgrade coming through, affecting the supply chain. retail sales looking a little nicer. theresa may has a new brexit deal. will it get through parliament? moody's just sat down with me. they say unlikely, it will not get thrashed as much as last time, but unlikely. bank of america has a buy rating on good old apple, we have all been too negative on the apple stock. big jump in u.s. equities yesterday, going above the 200-day moving average of the s&p 500. some risk on across assets. dollar-yen, 111.29, the dollar -- the yen the only g10 weakening today against the dollar. there was a says blackout sparking a production

collapse in venezuela. let's get the bloomberg vision -- business flash with annabelle in hong kong. annabelle: volkswagen saw profitability at vw, audi, arsche fall last year as look to invest in electric cars. audi, the biggest profit generator, is under pressure against rivals. revenuermed overall -- confirmed overall revenue to rise 5% this year, despite sales in china, the biggest market, slumping 18% in february. a revised investor lawsuit against google alleges alphabet ceo larry page didn't have board approval when he awarded $150 million of stock to andy rubin, creator of android software. he was under internal

investigation for sexual harassment at the time, and left google three months later. the lawsuit claims page got rubberstamped board approval for the decision eight days later. an annual bonus by 19% after a surprise decline in fourth-quarter trading revenue. variable remuneration for 2018 was lowered to 1.0 6 million euros, so total pay fell 9%. musk told a new york judge that two tweets he sent last month about has lower not improper, citing his constitutional right to free speech and diligent attempt to comply with restrictions on his social media activity. faces experts say musk punishment for breaking sec regulations, but probably will

not lose control of tesla. nejra: thank you. manus: we have the u.s. retail sales, rose in january after a dismal drop in december. 2018 was larger than first reported, an indication consumers may still be able to help support economic growth, after a somber end to 2018. markets have rallied off positive numbers. will hobbs is on the green with nejra this morning, still with us. the s&pa dtv on the go, 500 shaking off the five-day funk. andhe back of retail sales, the apple upgrade was no mean feat from bank of america merrill lynch. with retail sales, with a that heartening to you -- were they that heartening to you? will: one of the things we have been talking about for a while,

pessimistic on the outlet in december. there was a slump in that period. china growth went lower than policymakers expected. u.s. growth has been falling a bit more. generally, this was a slowdown, not a recession. what we saw since then, people readjusting their expectations a little bit. the thing for us right now, the u.s. economy looks ok, world economy looks ok, but not expecting stellar profit growth to drive stocks higher. sentiment in the developed world looks a little overcooked for us. we have gone underweight the u.s. equities very recently, for the first time since 2012. we're fading the rally a little bit. -- weappy to play further are happy to play further upside, but in the developed world it looks a little high already. nejra: you said you don't expect

profit growth to drive u.s. equities higher. does that mean you expect the wage growth we see in the u.s. to actually hit the profit margins of u.s. companies, rather than passing on those costs to the consumers by cpi? will: you hit on the key story at the moment. one of the strangest things about the rally so far, it is goldilocks. bond yields, risk assets, fixed assets rising together. what could spoil the party is if you start finding the wage growth inflation story, maybe companies have to pass that on, and that is what central bankers will look for. generally, our opinion is bond investors have been too pessimistic on the prospects for rate hikes and inflation. they flip-flop around on that stuff. from that perspective, you could easily see in coming quarters the bond market comes to spoil his party a little bit. manus: let's pick up on that. re csi 300 has given up its

un, up 2%. will, you talked about the bond market. are you beingte, rewarded enough to hold bonds in the longer-term? it is negative, and to many people this is an ominous sign about u.s. growth. how ominous is it to you, when you look at such historically low levels in term premium? will: really interesting question. because surely i should demand extra compensation to lending to the government for 10 years, rather than a series of shorter-term instruments rather than a series of shorter-term instruments. it is a little perverse, isn't it? people have looked at inflation, a -- you look at will price, source of inflation shocks in the past, that looks less likely to shock, with the supply story from shale in the second half of the year.

nejra: goldman sachs questioning the very calculation of the term premium. will hobbs, barclays investment solutions chief investment officer, staying with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ this isn't just any moving day.

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♪ ♪ means brexit. >> brexit does mean brexit. >> brexit means brexit, and we are going to make a success of it. we are leaving the european union, but we are not leaving europe. but we want to ensure, the best possible deal. the best possible deal for britain. every vote for me is a vote for strong and stable leadership. strong and stable leadership. strong and stable leadership. no deal is better than a bad deal. what we are working for is the best deal for the united kingdom. the british people just want us to get on with it. get on with it and let's move on. there are