that economic growth is react seller rating in the u.s. you have good soft data. we of pmi's, consumer confidence. the hard data has not confronted yet. we need to see that. i've record has called saying the imf got it wrong and they think that we are seeing green shoots across other technical areas. up 04 -- 0.4%.ll this is still very close to a record high. >> that happens every day, right? joe: it is a resilient market right now. the dow industrial is off 25%. caroline: let's get more of a sense and slide deeper into the action with abigail. this is a tremendous chart. there's a lot here. of thes to us from one

most respected technicians out there. ,e are looking at the s&p 500 the percentage of stocks above the 200 day moving average. highthe s&p 500 put in a last january, about 15% of stocks were above the 200 day average. the all-time high in december still at 50%. right now, the s&p 500 above that all-time high last january and we have the percentage of stocks below 50% at 49%, dipping back down. you have internals that are not quite as strong as the price action. emma: i've been taking a look at emerging markets. u.s. equities took a pause in their rally yesterday. the msci index of emerging , currently on the

highest winning streak in more than a year. this is ahead of technical analysis saying that that, along with rising copper prices, the imf simply got it wrong yesterday when it cut its global growth forecast. investors are voting with their feet. if you look at the top three etf's, the largest inflow. msci4 day rsi on that emerging markets index, that is now about 70, suggesting no stocks might be a little bit overboard. romaine: while everyone waits for the big bank earnings call on friday, industrial sector began today, mfc industrial out with some disappointing quarterly results and a disappointing forecast. there were doing a lot worse earlier in the day and managed

to rebound. this is a company that sells a lot of cutting tools, measuring equipment. they said conditions did remain solid but they did see a little bit of softness particularly in february and saw government sales drop, particularly because of the government shutdown. a much larger competitor in this industrial economic space, they are going to be out before the bell, and there's a lot of concern here that we could see some pressure on margins. we are going to be looking for a lot of commentary from executives on the conference call. keeping a lookout for that tomorrow morning. is emilystill with us to youi want to turn because if earnings season is going to be the be-all-end-all, talk to us about the industrial averages that will be mentioned.

the four sectors slated for positive earnings. highly cyclical sector. it could be impacted by the strength of the dollar. it is up on a year-by-year basis, but it is not up much year to date. it could have a meaningful impact on the industrials complex. want to talk about europe for a second. there is so much pessimism about the ecb. europempanies exposed to have done nicely. is there a story going on in europe that is pessimistic about

the economic condition. >> part of it is the eu tariff situation. we are getting talk from the united states about airbus subsidies and europe coming back with boeing subsidies. the big shoe to drop is the auto sector. tariffs onollow autos, which would hurt germany particularly. that is the shoe that everyone is waiting to drop in probably what is alden europe back more than anything else. heardne: we have discussion of recession, whether talking about italy, germany. there seems to be a big battle going on. , othersim says 50% chop saying 10%. y: it has been in the headlines. some of our favorite thing to watch, the yield curve.

i know some of us are getting exhausted talking about the yield curve. the u.s. leading economic indicators, we will get another read on that next week. it has predicted eight of the last nine recessions in the u.s.. we are watching this moderation and economic growth, but it's not enough to cause us to be more defensive or call for a recession yet. we want to own quality, we want to own growth, but we are not ready to go completely defensive . >> what sectors could provide the most upside when it comes to earnings? emily: we haven't really talked about tech. we know it is a big part of the u.s. market. caroline: you mean communications services as well or just tech tech? emily: just tech.

what we look at quality, one thing is return on equity. highest one of the returns but also growth margins. kind of whether this environment in which growth will be harder to come by. we would lean in to tech at this point. joe: in the u.s., more tension between the white house and the fed, concerns about politicization. senators saying they couldn't support herman cain. is there a point where these become market stories? this has been going on for a long time, back to the johnson administration when he was said to have put the fed governor up against a wall. there will always be tension between the fed and the white house when there's a change in

an economic cycle. the potential we saw for slower global growth, slower u.s. growth, the white house is looking to pin the blame on somebody. if you look back at what the fed has done since 2001, the interest rate cycle has changed almost 50 times. you could seriously argue the fed has been way too proactive in adjusting the interest rate cycle and not letting the economy and markets dictate where they go. politicians do have a point when they say the fed may be too busy. at the same time, fed independence will be paramount. caroline: just for some perspective on what other asset classes you are keeping an eye on, where does yields for treasuries go from here? emily: we've been saying since last year that the path of rates is lower. we certainly aren't at those recession level lows. brexit the discussion on

, waiting for brexit or waiting for earnings. member what happened after the referendum in 2016. if there is some big tail risk -- >> didn't get that low? emily: that was the cycle low. it is not our base case by any means. i think we are well anchored around 250. i think we have to keep that possibility in mind. remember when everyone was sure it was going to hit 4%? a bunch of people were like, this is it. scarlet: there is this big dichotomy, who is right, the bond market or the stock market?

the closing for bell and for me. romaine bostick is stepping in that for "what'd you miss?" this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: on capitol hill, the chief of the banks get quizzed on everything. as we debate the health of the

global economy, the view from the european commission vice president on growth, brexit, trade, and much more. a closer look at the u.s. strategy on iran, and advisor for mike pompeo joins us live. to the fed meeting. we are joined by bloomberg's international policy correspondent in d.c.. right now, how in alignment when you say that the market is? >> if you define it as right now, i would say they are pretty well aligned. if you look at the minutes, they were not nearly as dovish as some in the market anticipated. they were looking for maybe another clue as to how long the fed would keep rates on hold.

we got no real justification for what they did and why they changed their view accept that they did, they put everything on hold. going forward, it doesn't look like there's anything for markets to hang their hat on, but we didn't get a reaction in the market today. the market is still pricing in some rate cuts. toy are saying they are open raising rates again if they have to or if they want to. they are putting everything on the idea that we have risks on the horizon and until we know what happens with those risks, we are not going to move. romaine: we know the market tends to abscess over every single word in the fed minutes. "patient,"the word and how it was being used. michael: there's a question about whether they want to continue to use the dot plot

going forward, so there was some discussion as to whether that should be changed. members noted that financial conditions had improved since the beginning of the year. some time would be needed to assess whether indications of weak economic growth would persist in subsequent quarters. most of them said they didn't think it would. ,fter that, it was division those who thought they would stay on hold for the rest of the year and those who thought they might need to raise rates or be flexible to go either way. caroline: markets pricing in a rate cut as opposed to eight rate hike. is there anything in the minutes that you saw that would what they would be overenthusiastic about? michael: no. there were some members who said they would be prepared to go either direction based on the data, which you would expect

them to say. fedte cut, just keeping the on hold for the time being, they seem to be satisfied where they are. for the future, the direction is no cuts for the fed, no raise for the fed. they just a on hold for the year. caroline: michael, great analysis. we thank you. in washington, chiefs from the largest u.s. banks including goldman sachs, j.p. morgan, bank of america, faced hours from lawmakers on a number of suspects including cybersecurity. theyber risk is probably biggest risk banks face. >> i think cyber risk is a clear and present danger to the financial system. >> the single biggest existential threat to the financial system. >> we are in effectively a war

on cybersecurity. though they felt as all were singing from the same ton sheet when it came fiber, leveraged loans, student loans. >> it was a mariner -- a marathon seminar session in and i would be., truly shocked if they all really meant it. large, i think it would be fair to say this was all a session where they escaped without any real blows landed. you had about 50 odd members of the committee and it was never really that focus throughout. when they did have pointed questions, almost everyone had the same answer. this is very different from a few weeks ago when the former ceo of wells fargo was in a session like this. clearly, he -- clearly, that was

much more painful. the mark zuckerberg hearings from a year ago. a bithis feel it is retro, pulling bank ceos in front of congress. they are not the center of higher the way they once were. the questions kind of fell along partisan lines where republicans were trying to say, we don't need to bring you here, we want to ask you constructive questions, and the democrats saying, we want to hold you accountable. we've never had this group sit together just because of the makeup. likeast time bank ceos this were in front of congress was 10 years ago and only one member of this group, jamie dimon, was there. caroline: we saw the tweet that went out, lloyd blankfein.

romaine: what is he up to these days? that's what he's up to. we saw a tweet, i really miss my old job. we assume he is being sarcastic. most of the ceos still walked out of this relatively unscathed. is a recently departed member of that gang and you can determine that tweet had a sassy edge to it. they all were sort of acting as a pack, having questions that were about the broader impact of the bank policies over the last 10 years. no one really had to feel intense pressure on this one. there were questions about whether there are risks in the system. the level of agreement pointed to corporate borrowing, student lending, and also the fact that -- sort and the focus

of the shadow system that has developed. caroline: look over there. romaine: i assume they all think dodd-frank for that. sridhar: they genuinely seem to express gratitude for dodd-frank. i don't know if you want to believe them no. caroline: how the times have changed. a quick look at what lyft has been doing. it has been falling today. they will be giving us their first quarter results on may 7. lyft falling yet further. romaine: let's take a look at bed bath & beyond. the shares rising after hours. eps, well above the $1.85 that the average analyst estimates. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: we want to recap the earnings on bed bath & beyond. the real news here is that the company gave earnings guidance for the full year that was well above analyst estimates and also announced some changes to its board instead the transformation process of its stores has been accelerated. remember, there was a lot of activist pressure on this company. you are seeing the shares move up after hours. joe: it is time for smart charts with abigail doolittle. i understand you are dissecting this year's rally. abigail: joining me to do that is the head of technical analysis at oppenheimer.

you called the correction back in 2015 and 2016. take a look at your s&p 500 chart right now. the bottom panel is similar to another chart i was taking a look at another segment. ari: we are still bullish. there is one missing piece of evidence, and that is to see a surge in the percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average. that is the indicator based on the new york stock exchange. on bloomberg, currently at about 50%. we would like to see a jump in this indicator toward 60%, ideally even 70%. historically speaking, that has been followed by above-average returns. marks the start of a new bull market. you saw in that 2015-2016 period, again, there's your bear market.

the big surge in the first quarter of 2016, that mark your new bull. is that one of the tells on what got you bearish fact that? and then, one of the things that stood out to me here is we had an all-time low that was -- now we are significantly below. there is a divergence when you have a price high and a failure to get above 60%. that was the reset. that was the bear market cycle. depleted conditions, one of the lowest readings in years. now we are looking for a new bull market. abigail: we will continue on with your bullish view. caps.bring the small ari: value sectors like financial and energy, and small caps. 1600.es should be on

keep an eye on 1600. you get that breakout above that level. i think you would get a surge, an indicator, i think that would be your confirmation that this new bull has started. individual stock you do like, amazon. ari: we root for the week, we invest in the strong. i think amazon is going to start getting going again. here's a weekly momentum indicator, turning from a negative position into positive. atakouts through the 200 day 17-30. i think amazon is getting started again with that inflection and momentum.

it sounds as though you think the internals, which right now are a little bit questionable, will get up and match the amazon chart here. ari: we are not there yet. you root for the week, you invest in the strong. amazon scores much higher. we are momentum investors. we like amazon. abigail: first-quarter earnings season will probably help you out here, or i guess not. caroline, joe, back to you. caroline: the ecb once again warns of cooling growth in the economy, and in-depth interview with valdis dombrovskis of the european commission. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: first word news. senator bernie sanders said today he's introducing a new medicare for all proposal, acting to keep health care policy at the center for the race for the 2020 democratic nomination. four white house rivals have signaled support for his single player pan -- single-payer plan. it will replace private insurance with a government run plan that would cover medical care, hospital stays, and prescription drugs, drought of the changing the health care industry. sen. sanders: together, we are going to end the international

embarrassment of the united states of america, our great country, being the only major nation on earth not to guarantee health care to all as a right. senator sanders also criticized health care executives' wealth and high profits of drugmakers, saying, "please do not tell us this is a rational health care system." benjamin netanyahu seems to be heading toward an unprecedented fifth term as israeli prime minister, after results seemingly giving his like food party.- his likud european union leaders are meeting in brussels today for an emergency summit on brexit. british prime minister theresa may pleaded with the 27 other eu

leaders to delay britain's exit until june 30. british lawmakers have rejected may's divorce deal three times forge apts to compromise with political opponents have been unsuccessful. attorney general william barr has been back on capitol hill for the second time this week, testifying before an appropriations subcommittee. believed the president's campaign had been spied on and he wanted to make sure proper procedures were followed. house speaker nancy pelosi told the associated press that she doesn't trust the attorney general and she suggested his statement on spying undermine his independence as the nation's top law enforcement officer. she said, "i don't trust barr, i trust mueller." the first-ever picture of a

black hole. data from eight telescopes showing what was theorized by albert einstein and confirmed by observations for decades. >> what we have found is a ring of light around the black hole of the definitive proof and thee of black holes effectiveness of einstein's theory of general relativity. scientists say the black hole is about 6 billion times the mass of our son and is about 53 million light-years from earth. global news 24 hours a day on twitter,t tictoc on powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. romaine: a dominican lawyer is

a questtwo families on for ancestral riches that may not even exist. >> i picked up the phone and i got the guy live, and i didn't have the heart to say, i don't care, goodbye. he was telling me he needed to meet me, he needed to have a cup of coffee with me because he needed to tell me about his story. i had a cup of coffee with him and he unravels this incredible tale about how, for five generations, his family, the guzman's, have known they had an incredible inheritance in switzerland and spain because they're great, great, great whatever had a boat and used to mine gold in the dr, they would take it to spain, give some to the king as tribute, and put the

rest in the bank. they have always known this or believed it or whatever you want to say. i actually helped him hook up with a lawyer. the lawyer investigated it for about a year, came back and said there's no data there. he sort of gave up for a couple of years. suddenly he came back and said, it's back on again. >> a guy had found him. >> his cousin, who was so obsessed with the inheritance, and was looking up genealogical documents to help prove the claim and he bumps into this lawyer whose looking for an inheritance for another family, a family of about 20,000 people. he somehow says, i'm connected too.e guzman fortune, now the hunt is on. >> you go to all these places in part because this is where this

lawyer has been going and you discover that maybe even those trips aren't exactly what they seem to be. >> just to be clear, when i started out on this, i knew it was the longest of long shots, that this inheritance existed. i didn't know anything about inheritance or dormant accounts or anything like that. as i got into it, i started to think, this can't be real. the next thought became, if it's not real, why is he doing this? he was going to get 30% of whatever he found. in the u.s., you don't get any money until you win the case. and i go toing this switzerland with them and spain with them. both times, i realize, they are supposed to have all these meetings with bankers, they don't have any meetings with bankers. they are kind of touring the

whole time. they go to the bank a couple of times to drop off documents. when i come back, i interview somebody who says, i have to pay him to be a client. it came to about $200 or something like that, which is a lot of money in the dr. i have to pay him to give me -- to give him power of attorney and pay him when i turn in my documents. now i understand why he doesn't want just five or six clients, he wants 25,000 clients. romaine: you can read the story in the latest issue of bloomberg businessweek, and you can hear onm the magazine's editors saturday or sunday. coming up, european commission vice president valdis dombrovskis joins us this hour for a live interview in studio. we will talk the ecb, brexit,

trade, and more.

caroline: the european central bank its pledge to keep interest rates at record lows. mario draghi spoke earlier today on the balance of risks. >> the risk around the new era tintedth outlooks remain to the outside, on account of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the fret of protectionism, and vulnerabilities in emerging markets. caroline: the brexit battle in the background, cooling growth, and the u.s.-eu trade tensions, who better to have as a guest than valdis dombrovskis.

thank you very much. how worried are you about the european slowdown? mr. dombrovskis: first of all, economy tohe eu's continue to grow. our forecast is on growth this year of 1.46%. we still expect economic growth in all 28 eu member states. there has been some slowdown and we have revised our forecast numbers compared with previous forecasts. but, in any case, we also see strong signs of the european economy. employment is at record high levels. unemployment is down to precrisis levels. of thestrong demand side economy and we still see growth in the economy. at the same time, our risks

concerning global trade tensions, as you mentioned, risks concerning brexit issues being discussed right now by the leaders of the eu during the summit. in light of the ecb twisting itself into knots with different tiers, negative rates, , countries, particularly ones with stronger finances, to engage more with fiscal stimulus to make up for this, show that it is not entirely dependent on the ecb to re-accelerate growth? mr. dombrovskis: this is something we have been advocating from the european commission side. advice.our policy

countries like the netherlands, to use this fiscal space to stimulate especially investment. thate same time, countries still have high deficit and public debt levels, those currents should use good economic times to reduce that theyr debt so have some more fiscal buffers and room for maneuver during the next economic downturn. romaine: let's put this in the context with italy. we got the new budget update. their new economic forecast. when you look at those and take into account what has been going on there, do you see a viable strategy there to deal with the economy and the issues they are having? mr. dombrovskis: the situation in italy, indeed, of all european union member states, italy has experienced the most

pronounced slowdown. to the extent it can be attributed to the decisions of put thegovernment, to 2019 budget with increasing deficits, contrary to pretty much all economic advice. we've had difficult discussions with italian authorities late last year. they eventually corrected their budget deficits substantially downward. but we already saw spreads have increased, confidence indicators are down. that was negatively affecting confidence also in italy's economy. damage to the economy was already done and italy's economy is now the one that has slowed down the most. in italy, our policy advice is that italy should continue to reduce public deficits and debt. italy's debt to gdp ratio is the

second highest in the eu and is currently not really going down. caroline: they should, but what if they don't? mr. dombrovskis: that is why we have discussions with italian authorities in the context of european semester, our fiscal and macroeconomic coordination cycle, and also enforcement mechanisms from the eu side. we hope we can avoid these scenarios. in any case, during the late last year, we managed to convince italian authorities to correct somewhat. what will we must see be the plans for the coming years. every day, or maybe not every day, there is bad news in terms of money laundering, .egulation

numerous banks with dirty money that flows through them. what needs to be done from a regulatory perspective to stem that problem? mr. dombrovskis: if you look at the prudential side, the european banking sector is much stronger than it used to be a couple of years ago. it has much stronger capital buffers, much stronger --uidity, it is building up the european banking sector is now much more resilient than it used to be before the crisis and also in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. time, as there are pockets of weakness, we still loans andonperforming banking systems in the eu. all in all, the level of nonperforming loans has come

substantially down. there are countries, for example , like greece or cyprus, where the level of nonperforming loans is still very high. in regards to money laundering issues, indeed. , so-called anti-money laundering rules which are actually quite strict. enforcement ise, purely national. few member states, there are indeed issues. giveislative proposal to more tools to european banking authority, which can then act in case of national inaction of

national competent authorities. by proposal has been adopted legislators. romaine: a big part of your job has to -- has been to bring more unity on the fiscal side. with elections coming up in europe, are you worried at all about populist voices that could -- that could gain a little more of a foothold? mr. dombrovskis: we see tendencies toward populism and see that one of the driving the aftermathll of the global financial crisis and social consequences which are still being felt.

-- if on policies which you look at our fiscal policy coordination, the european semester, during the last couple of years, we have been putting emphasis on social and .mployment issues caroline: what are you more worried about, brexit for the eu or trade tension with the u.s., for the eu? mr. dombrovskis: these are two different issues. when we listen to mario draghi talking about risks, they are external and internal risks. isde tensions with the u.s. external risk. our negotiating group, which is currently negotiating with u.s. authorities, and hopefully we will be able to avoid further

escalation of trade tensions. i think chances are now better that we will be able to avoid a so-called no deal brexit, which will be quite damaging for the economy, especially for the u.k. economy. romaine: thank you so much for joining us today, valdis dombrovskis, the european commission vice president. february marked the 40th anniversary of the islamic one u.s.n in iran, but official said few beyond the economic elite celebrated it. ,> we are here with brian hook the special representative for iran and a senior policy advisor to secretary of state pompeo. thank you for being here.

the administration designated iran's revolutionary guards corps a terrorist organization. tell me what precisely this decision means. my understanding is this is the first of its kind. ? mr. hook: this is the first time the united states has sanctioned an arm of another government for terrorism. the iranian revolutionary guard corps is essentially responsible for exporting revolution. they've done that throughout the middle east. when you look at what is destabilizing the middle east whether in lebanon, iraq, syria, bahrain, the irgc is behind it. 603 american soldiers were killed in iraq by the irgc. you've got many other soldiers killed in lebanon and other places. we thought this was a long-overdue decision. >> the secretaries tweet, you are telling me, had an enormous amount of exposure. mr. hook: this was historic to

take this sort of step. the way we look at it is that it is impossible to have a more peaceful and stable middle east without weakening the revolutionary guard and the iranian regime. >> in the last several months since the u.s. has withdrawn than 1000cpoa, more sanctions have been levied against iran. there's been some discussion in terms of how global markets might be disrupted, in particular the energy markets. how do you strike that balance between sanctioning iran and finding that balance with the oil markets? mr. hook: when we were in the iran nuclear deal, we had suspended all energy and financial sanctions. getting out of the deal has given us enormous leverage to go 's, all the threats to peace and security that iran represents. we have taken off 1.5 million

barrels of oil off of iran's export list, and there is more to come. our goal is to get to zero importance of iranian crude ofause -- zero imports iranian crude because 80% of the regime's revenue comes from oil exports. revenue that would otherwise go to conflicts in syria, supporting the assad regime, hezbollah in lebanon, hamas, the in these -- the houthis yemen. >> should the u.s. continue to grant waivers that allow limited cooperation with iran on a limited basis? mr. hook: we are not looking to grant any exception. in 2018, we had to grant only eight oil waivers in order to ensure that we had a very stable and nonvolatile oil market.

2019 is a different forecast. we think that supply will exceed demand. that puts us in a better position to accelerate the path to zero. the current oil waivers expire on may 2. we don't preview the decisions we will make around that. it is definitely our goal to get to zero as quickly as possible. you are going to stick around for bloomberg radio. appreciate you coming in. i will toss it back to you in new york. caroline: thank you. let's turn our attention to one of the key stock stories of the day, lyft. we hit a new low, a record low, not surprising because the ipo was only a week ago. 10% drop. joe: it tumbled, then rallied above the ipo price, but this is getting ugly, now below 60. they say they will come out with

earnings on may 7, so we will see. i think there is some anxiety ahead of the uber numbers. romaine: we knew this comparison would be made. a company, uber, which has like four times the revenue. it has larger losses but when you look at the ratio, i think uber is in a better position. these are both ride-hailing companies but they have different business models. caroline: you have to wonder, what are investors thinking or worrying about? they knew it was going to come to the party afterwards. they knew it was a bigger brother in terms of arrival. romaine: did we think it was going to come this fast? i thought there was going to be more space. joe: i saw an excellent stat today speaking about the scale of losses between these two companies. people talked about amazon lost money for years. the first 17 quarters of amazon, they lost $2.8 billion. uber lost $4.5 billion in 2017

alone. , it can eventhese compare, both on the gains but also the depths of the losses. romaine: this is basically a battle for market share. joe: one day, when you have a lot of market share, in theory, profits. caroline: that or autonomous vehicles. romaine: then you will eliminate a bunch of jobs. caroline: tomorrow, south korean president moon jae-in meets with president trump to talk about nuclear talks with north korea. joe: i will be talking about jobless claims. romaine: first-quarter earnings before the bell. caroline: that's all for "what'd you miss?" joe: this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ emily: i've emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." counting down to uber filing its ipo. what could be one of the 10 biggest listings of all time. shares of lyft have hit a new all-time low. snap is expected to lose users in the united states for the first time this year. a