pleasant surprise, and today we see whether goldman and citi can keep it going. imf chief christine lagarde says the world economy hangs in the balance with trade a big issue. and how good it could have been. president trump says the dow would be 10,000 points higher but for an aggressive fed. ecb president draghi steps into defend the fed's independence. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i'm david westin, alongside lisa abramovitz. alix steel on assignment today. lisa: i think this is fascinating, tiger woods among back with his first major win in more than a decade, 43 years old, after all of the personal issues he has gone through, showing that he is still a winner and showing his star power, frankly. ago he wastwo years saying he wasn't sure if he was going to get to play golf again at all. putt, he just roared.

lisa: in the markets come a tepid action across the board. on futures up slightly constructive talk about trade. stocks in europe a little higher. the euro gaining barely, basically flat. i think the biggest story of the day is crude. you did get a read that production out of the u.s. was more than people expected, setting prices a little lower. david: it is time now for the morning brief. u.s./japanese trade talks get underway in washington today. in san diego, the jury trial to resolve apple's patent dispute with qualcomm gets started. chinay evening, we get numbers for overall growth, as well as chinese retail sales and industrial output. thursday, u.s. retail sales numbers for last month are

released. friday, it is the good friday holiday, with markets closed, but u.s. housing data expected nonetheless. lisa: let's get the bloomberg first take. for that we are joined by peggy collins and lou cobb. of course, there is the imf meeting that happened last week. one of the starkest issues that arose from that was how much they downgraded their economic forecast. if you want to see just how much these forecasts did go down, really it was europe driving it. should this be a surprise to anyone? if you are making buying and selling decisions on imf forecasts, it is probably just assign the market got a little overextended or was a little fragile. when i look at the outlook for global growth, i look at implied volatility, which is at its lowest level since the start of

--8, and from the tray side the trade aside, implied volatility. it is back at levels before we even had tariffs. the market i think has incorporated this all in. there's never been a negative catalyst in 2019 that has been able to last more than a day or two. that sounds pretty darn good, so is christine lagarde just wrong? she think we are really hanging in the balance. peggy: the reports covering the imf team last week showing that there is some concern. trump is basically saying to other parts of the world got to do more for us and america first, but at the same time, because he's picking battles on multiple fronts when you're in europents between , china and japan, it is causing concern among investors. out: steven mnuchin coming

during those imf talks and saying i would expect that the enforcement mechanism works in both directions, and we would expect to honor our commitments. this also coming out of the china/u.s. trade negotiations. at the end of the day, the u.s. understands they are also going to face repercussions. how much is this a positive step in moving towards some sort of agreement? peggy: i think it is an indication of a deal potentially coming because each side has to feel like they are getting something. it seems like there's a door open to the u.s. saying if you agree to have potential penalties if you don't hold up your end of the bargain, we will do the same. it is going to be interesting to see how far that takes us. david: in the meantime, president trump isn't just talking about what the rest of the world to do. he's talking about what the fed should do. its jobfed had done properly, which it has not come of stock market would be up 5000 to 10,000 additional points in gdp well over 4%."

does he have a point? luke: somewhat. the fed would say even though it is tightening policy, it is working through tighter conditions then would normally either case. from that perspective there is somewhat of a point. but would we even be talking about how the fed up to rescue the market? markets aren't even betting on a cut anymore. lisa: how concerning is it that we have a president who is jawboning the federal reserve again and again, and the ecb president coming out during the imf meetings and making the very unusual point of raising concern about a lack of said independence given how much president trump is talking about this? how much is this damaging to the fed? peggy: there's going to be more

people who rally around this idea that the fed needs to be politically independent in order for people and investors to feel like the decisions that are being made are good for the economy long-term, not just in the short-term, and not driven by election results. again, we are in a presidential campaign season. what the president needs is for the economy to feel good to people because that is certainly top of mind when voters go into the box. signsif you look for any of this fed independence risk premiu being built into markets, you don't find anything. lisa: what does that mean? there's no sign that is the case. there's no sign feeding into white creditor -- into wider credit spread or a worry of a lack of fed independence at this juncture. david: david: david: that is the drama in d.c. -- david: that is the drama in d.c.

let's go back to financials. we will hear from goldman sachs today, as well as citi. jp morgan surprised to the upside, and took a lot of stocks up, with the exception of wells fargo. what does this tell us about citi or goldman sachs? peggy: it looks like traders in general on friday were bullish about jp morgan. we will see if the numbers hold up. if there's any new information, mergers anditi, the acquisitions data is something investors have in clear focus. if the banks come on strong and add onto jp morgan, i think you will see the market take a turn upward. lisa: what i thought was interesting is you see how much the consumer has powered the earnings, certainly with jp morgan surpassing wells fargo in that capacity. a really fascinating development. with goldman sachs, how important is it that their online lending and consumer

business really does beat expectations? luke: i think it is important, but goldman has sometimes taken the emphasis out of that. i think it will all be a fairly balanced story. goldman is not the bank we will get the great consumer story from. we've already partially gotten that potentially from bank of america. david: you will also get from citi. credit cards are terribly important to citi, and that may give them a left. peggy: there is something to note about consumer spending, which is some economists say how far can that actually go. we have some good data, but how far could that boost our economy long-term? lisa: bloomberg's peggy collins kawa, thank you very much. want to take you to some breaking news. joining the helm

right now i ceo of best buy. you are seeing shares a little lower. the information officer for this company, which has sort of struggled to adapt to the online environment. so shens it in 1999, does have quite the institutional knowledge. we will have more on trade and global growth with eggs on take -- with eggs on a founder and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ uma: this is "bloomberg daybreak ." former volkswagen ceo martin winterkorn has been charged with the dieselud in emissions scandal. waste management has agreed to vie advanced removal -- two buy advanced removal services, which includes about $1.9 billion in debt. it represents a 20% premium to advanced removal's closing price friday. elon musk is posting another tesla production forecast like the one that got him in trouble in the first place, writing that the company will build over 500,000 cars in the next year. a similar tweet led the sec to argue he was in contempt of oftlement -- was in contempt

a settlement reached last year. david: thanks so much. imf chairman christine lagarde at her news conference said in part, "we are at a delicate moment. we need to avoid self-inflicted wounds, and cling tariffs and other barriers -- wounds, including tariffs and other barriers." joining us is jens norvig, exante's founder and ceo. we can put up pmi's that show us where we are. can china save us? guest: there's quite a bit of hope now that the chinese data is bouncing. we saw friday that the credit numbers came out very strong. we've already seen that in the chinese pmi's early on. there's a lot of people extremely focused on the global impact, but i would say in particular, the european impact. i can see you are preparing the european chart, so that is good. [laughter] the extreme weakness we

seen in european pmi's is really a concern. lisa: how much is this an issue of trade? mostly it has been talk. i am just wondering, is there something else going on in europe, around the world, that is slowing things that even a trade agreement won't necessarily solve? guest: the trade war ongoing with the u.s., and then week chinese demand still feeds into how much they import from other countries. if you look at car sales, for example, that is not just a function of what is going on with the u.s. negotiation. that is a function of some kind of weakness in sentiment has been very pronounced, and they have been extremely depressed. that is obviously feeding into germany and so forth. i think it is two things at the same time with this trade war. is it going to get resolved? are tariffs going to get lifted? aen there is whether there is

broad base in china which can revise that sentiment and get demand going. david: is there a broader stimulus in china that is kicking in yet? when you look at flows, what are you seeing? guest: we have a leading indicator of chinese trade where we can have a look into april now, and what we are seeing in terms of chinese demand that is get imports is we had growth. year in year they are definitely doing something significant to the economy, but it is going to be all in stimulus we have seen a couple of times since the -- but is it going to be all in stimulus we have seen a couple of times since the financial crisis? i think not. agree theou assessment that right now,

investors and analysts are being to bearish to china -- are being too bearish to china given that the pboc is willing to step up stimulus? guest: you have to be careful of growth projections. it is highly implausible that a big economy like that's can have such stable growth. lisa: the data is not legitimate. but what about the actual trendline? guest: that is the more relevant thing. i think we've seen some pronounced weakness. i think the economy is bottoming out. you can see it in confidence indicators and the credit numbers that it will feed into the economy. so i think we are going to have a balance in growth, but i don't think it is going to be china driving everything else. i think one thing that is interesting in this cycle is that the economies around china that typically are incredibly sensitive to this sentiment, korea and so forth, have not seen much of a bounce.

if you see how the korean currency is trading, the taiwan currency, it is barely moving. you have to start taking away the tail risk as opposed to really generating a boom. david: if trade isn't driving at exclusively, what about the central banks? we had something around 180 -- we had something around a 180 with the fed. guest: i think what the fed is was really important in that in the fourth quarter, we had an incredible tightening of financial conditions via the equity market, credit markets, and so forth. the fact that the fed with a relatively quick to do the 180 has played a big role in getting those financial conditions back. that is going to prolong the cycle. from that perspective it is very important. lisa: steve coming out over the weekend and saying the u.s. would be willing to accept -- stephen mnuchin coming out over the weekend at seeing the u.s. anld be willing to accept

enforcement mechanism with regards to the u.s. and china that would go both directions. would a trade deal be enough to illuminate the tail risk you are talking about -- to eliminate the tail risk you are talking about?\ guest: i think it shows that the u.s. once a deal. that seems to be a big concession. lisa: this is an important comment to you. guest: i think so. willing they are really to give a concession to get the deal. [no audio] -- for a while. david: sometimes that works. [laughter] david: jens norvig will be staying with us. coming up, we will bring you

more from the shanghai auto show. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: electric vehicles take center stage this year. billions of dollars of investment are for many sectors, but there are signs supply could outstrip demand. tom mackenzie, coanchor of us.omberg markets," is with how much our electric vehicles front and center at the shanghai auto show this year? guest: they really are. because china is leading in this space and because of a subsidy regime put in place to encourage customers and consumers to ,witch their purchases to ev's

that regime has started to change. the chinese government has started to roll back subsidies because they want companies here to focus on innovation. what that subsidy regime did was create hundreds, close to 500, startups in the electric vehicle e, chasing market growth on the back of those subsidies. now that those are coming down, there is the view that there will be a lot of consolidation in that space. then you have tesla as well, building a factory on the outskirts of shanghai. some people see it as a challenge to the out of makers here. others see it as an opportunity to build out a supply chain for electric vehicles. lisa: you said there are nearly 500 electric vehicle many factories in china. is there a feeling there is going to be consolidation? how much has demanded been growing? perhaps even without the subsidies, they will be an

increasing amount of demand for these vehicles, now? tom: yes, demand is going to increase. about 4% of vehicles here are electric, and the target is 20% by 2025, but even that increase isn't going to be enough to soak up the amount of units they will be turning out if you have 400 or 500 electric vehicle startups. when we spoke to the president of one of the leading startups here, he says he does expect significant consolidation, and many of these small startups to close up. he thinks they will be a positive for they and other companies positioned to dig advantage of this consolidation. there's going to be a lot of pain and a lot of lost money for investors here, that include tech companies like tencent and alibaba, that have pumped in billions of u.s. dollars into some of these startups. lisa: thank you so much. bloomberg tv will be live from the shanghai auto show all day tomorrow. don't miss our interviews with top executives. david: thanks so much.

still with us is jens norvi g of exante data. what do you see here? guest: there's a big factor that going up on strong inflows in february and january. what is a little bit surprising is that at the time we started to get the better data we spoke about, actually those flows are moderating. it feels like there is a sort of optimism that was very early on, and now there's actually perhaps people overweight chinese equities. david: how much of this good news is bad news? that is to say as the data gets better, they would do less to stimulate. tom: there could be an element of that. they sort of had a balancing act where they wanted to have strong growth, but also looked at financial stability. they tried to rein in shadow

banking, these types of things. when the economy shifted down again, they said we actually can't do that anymore. so it is a tricky balancing act, and that means growth comes up to a level they are comfortable with. it is not going to be continued stimulus. lisa: there is sort of a tension when it comes to investing in china, which is how much more stimulus does the pboc have at this point even how much leverage is in the system, how much they've already done this? tom: if you calculate how much credit they've injected into the economy this quarter, the first quarter you can get to numbers like 10% of gdp. it is just astounding the additional stimulus they are willing to generate, but how much bang for their buck today usually get. the economy has very high debt levels, and i think it is very logical that the extra you get in terms of growth is

diminishing. i think that is just a reality they are facing, and that doesn't mean that they are not going to try, but it is going to less growth. citi just coming out with their numbers. fixed income currency and commodities actually beat, which is a key member for goldman sachs. lisa: we have much more on those earnings next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity watchathon week has sadly come to an end.

what, what, what! no! but don't let that stop you from watching the best shows and movies from showtime, hbo, epix... jesus, what happened? ...and more. it's just the tip of the iceberg. upgrade now to get more into what you're into.

thanks! just say "watchathon" into your x1 voice remote to upgrade and keep getting more of what you love. i can customize each line for each family member? yup. and since it comes with your internet, you can switch wireless carriers, and save hundreds of dollars a year. are you pullin' my leg? nope. you sure you're not pullin' my leg? i think it's your dog. oh it's him. good call. get the data options you need and still save hundreds of dollars... do you guys sell other dogs? now that's simple, easy, awesome. customize each line by paying for data by the gig or get unlimited. and now get $100 back when you buy a new lg. click, call, or visit a store today. lisa: this is "bloomberg daybreak." goldman sachs front and center for everyone. first let's give you a sense

of where we are broadly in markets. the ftse 100 has dipped a little bit lower. not a lot of action ahead of the key earnings. get a look at what is going on across asset. 10 year yields declining a bit. old has been selling off. the pound a little stronger versus the dollar. crude the big mover as we see production in the u.s. pickup. david: goldman sachs front and center, as of a few moments ago, breaking what they did with their first quarter. they said they beat nicely earnings-per-share come upbeat on fixed income currency -- earnings-per-share, upbeat on fixed income, though they fell short on equities. liams, and alison wil still with us is jens norvig. give us the quick take. isson: i would say this similar to what we saw at jp morgan, which beat by a little

bit, but again, coming in just a little better than expectations, which have been falling throughout the quarter. what we are going to want to hear more about is what they are hearing from clients. goleman sachs makes more revenue than anyone from the m&a business. they probably have the best line into the board room. that business hopefully did well. lisa: financial advisory pulled in 880 $7 million, beating million, so $819 the preliminary basis does seem to indicate they did very well there. on the capital basis, the increase their dividend in line with their announcement last year. that is a positive. it looks like the capital ratio coming in a little better. not seeing anything on the legal front, and obviously that is something we are watching closely. of banks have been talking about the dismal first quarter trading activity, given how there was zero

volatility and people were depending on the central banks. what was your read, that this led to a lack of conviction -- that there was a lack of conviction that led to a lack of trading. : we had a bounce in the market, but i also think there is a structural situation going on. there is a compression happening in fixed and equities, so that is the trend that is hitting everybody. then you have volatility around that trend that is the basic pattern. david: one question that i have is to what extent are we seeing the bank pivot with new leadership. investment banking was up very nicely. it looks like that is part of what help them a lot. traditionally we thought of them as more of a fixed trading entity. is this a pivot, or responding quarter to quarter? the quarter is probably more about the environment. ask your was a very strong

quarter, a big bounce for goldman. it was sort of expected that we would see little -- we would see lower revenues this quarter. think we will hear more from management, perhaps during the conference season in late may and early june. we are waiting to hear a little the about going through business, what changes they are going to make. we did see a number of stories about headcount costs, so we are going to want to hear more from them once there is something strategic going on there, and the commodities business, for example, or is that an annual culling of talent. lisa: the debt underwriting came in at $652 million of revenue. that is below the estimate of $664 million. equity underwriting came in ahead of expectations. you can follow all of this on the bloomberg terminal in the live blog that is really

illuminating. it is interesting to see how the tide is shifting away from debt and toward equity, toward deals. you say perhaps this isn't a pivot, but david's question is a good one. how much is goldman sachs being successful in diversifying itself away from just being a debt shop? alison: i would say again they are the leader in the m&a business, up 51% this quarter. i think we would have been disappointed if they didn't do very strong just given what we are seeing from the environment. we will want to hear more from them again during the conference season. the one other number i just saw quickly, litigation at $37 million. that is a very small amount. see it up in that quarter. i think it might signal a lack -- orgress or a lack of some stalling out in the talks.

morgan, wells fargo, and now morgan. to what extent does this read into the question of economic growth in the united states? that is to say, that the environment is conducive to banks doing well? >> so we had the big impulse from the tax reform, but also from the fed moving interest rates and people thinking about the interest rate margin improving. that is the sort of tailwind that has disappeared, and that is obviously going to be more important for commercial banks the goldman sachs, but it is going to be for everybody. that means they have to drive revenue and profit through some other means. lisa: i was speaking with charlie peabody last week. he said if we look under the starting to see some deterioration in consumer credit. that mean to you with was back to the economy? we will parse the data and maybe get some information there. very this cycle has been

long going, and we had a build , likecredit stock-price loans with meaningful deterioration. you should never say this cycle is like 2007 or like that, but there are limits of consumer credit that flash similar warning signs. it is another indication that growth is possible, likely to be on the downward pressure. then these specific aspects of the consumer are probably going to weaken as well. david: with think about bank of america as being very good on the cost. up 4%e expenses words from last quarter, but down 11% from a year earlier. how is goldman doing on managing cost? alison: i think the year-over-year comparison is the

key one. the first one is when we tend to see higher expenses. revenue looks a little better than expected. depends on the mix of things. but i think they are doing a good job on the cost front. that is something that is important across all the banks, as we are in a more important revenue environment. they blame the government shutdown in part for delaying initial public offerings, which i found really interesting. david: and we talked about that. the other thing i find interesting is so far i haven't seen malaysia. possible losses there. something we would all be looking for. : the question is, there

is another figure they report they quarter, which is potential losses beyond reserves. that is sort of a reasonable loss number. based on what they know, about 2 million last quarter and it did go up this quarter. lisa: goldman sachs did acknowledge it was a mediocre overriding environment, and they blamed not only the ipo issue, but leveraged transactions. we saw the volume of leverage loans come under pressure. there is a demand. i wonder what that means about the bus economy -- about the u.s. economy. david: as i recall, some of it has to do with japan. [laughter] lisa: i can go on. jens: alison williams and norvig, thank you for being with us. let's turn to uma pemmaraju with the first word news. uma: another sign that the u.s.

and china are getting closer to a trade agreement. secretary treasury steven mnuchin it says the u.s. is open to facing penalties if it doesn't live up to its communities in the deal. the notion is saying each side would establish an office to monitor compliance. president trump says the stock market would be "5000 to 10,000 points higher if it hadn't been for the fed actions." the president tweeting that quantitative tightening was "a disaster, and the fed should have done the opposite." economists at goldman sachs protecting president trump's reelection is more likely than not. they say the state of the economy and the fact that he's the incumbent give him the edge, but still saying that is offset by the president's negative approval ratings. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm uma pemmaraju. this is bloomberg. david: thanks very much.

coming up, fewer jobs for bankers. jobs in london's finance industry have halved in the wake of brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ uma: this is "bloomberg daybreak ." hour, rbcin the next capital market analyst. stay with us for that. ♪ uma: this is "bloomberg daybreak ." i'm uma pemmaraju with your bloomberg business flash. best buy has named a new ceo,

chiefbarry, currently the financial and strategic transformation officer at the consumer electronics retailer. ceo will transfer to the newly created position of best buy's executive chairman. in belgium, a government agency reportedly finding no proof that chinese telecom equipment maker huawei is a security threat. a belgian newspaper is saying the prime minister will now have to decide whether to let huawei keep working with companies there. the trumpet administration has been pressuring europe -- the trump administration has been pressuring european countries to

bar huawei.y -- to lisa: brexit bites into employers' confidence. the london finance since theave halved referendum. everyone talking about which brands get a boost. tiger woods gets his fifth masters win, reporting the brands that have stuck with him through his many struggles. david: and that is the photo. it looks like a tiger roaring. lisa: and he deserved to. bloomberg'sng us is bureau chief. interesting is

because we talk so much about the ins and outs of brexit. that chart says it. you can tell exactly what is happening just by looking at that downward slope. the upward tick, don't even mind that to some extent. as you say, fewer job openings, fewer people looking for jobs, and as predicted, these jobs are going elsewhere. lisa: what is interesting is if you look at the actual numbers of banks losing jobs already out of the city in response to brexit, it isn't as big as you would think. the fact you are seeing this kind of trend in openings and jobseekers is the real story, it feels like. that there is a lack of conviction that this isn't going to be the future of finance the way that it once was. jason: it is interesting to note who is winning dublin, which i'm not sure everyone predicted. bank: except the central ceo right after brexit.

jason: and i think people want to live there. frankfurt is a tough sell. lisa: another story we were looking at was one that showed just how much the middle class is struggling to gain steam, even with the tax cuts, even with what we've seen in the economy. the middle class is losing share of its wealth to the upper 1%. the reasons behind that pretty interesting. thea: the make --jason: main reason this jumped out to me is the change in debt composition. lisa: credit card debt, auto loans, subprime auto loan boom we have seen. what this indicates is they are not necessarily putting money into wealth, something that will .e tangible

consumer debt ends up being onerous, with higher interest rates, and doesn't necessarily leave you with a product we can leave you with. go "balance of power" here, but this leads to 2020, right? david: you think of the trump base being at the bottom of the spectrum. 90% is suggesting that of the country will be left behind. that is a problem. jason: what are the democratic candidates going to do with that? lisa: and why have salaries among the upper-middle-class lagged behind the growth in wages we have seen for both the lower and upper class? they have been the one left behind. we talk about the shrinking middle class. but to dig into exactly why will be very intriguing. idea ofnd this whole what do you aspire to, it really

gets to the whole question of the american dream. how about tiger woods? david: it was an amazing tournament, and part because the greens were soft, so the ball would actually hold. they had several people right up to the end who were in contention, putting up huge scores. jason: this is obviously great for tiger and his family. it is hard not to get emotional watching him hug his kids and things like that. david: also great for nike. jason: and great for golf. you see the nike swoosh on his hat. when he started they were in golf. now they are in apparel. lisa: moments after he won, nike put out a will produce a video .howing just how proud they are

jason: they stuck with him. . david: a lot of people didn't. bridgestone, i didn't even know they made golf balls. he plays with a bridgestone golf ball. jason: we actually had the bridgestone guy on our radio show last summer. he was predicting, not surprisingly, since he is team tiger. this is huge for their business, and big for the game of golf, and it is a great story. can't get away from it. lisa: and he is one of the oldest winners ever, right? david: 43 years old. 15, 3 to go to catch up with jack nicholas. tough at 43. jason: nicholas tweeted his congratulations. one of the great moments, he puts on that green jacket and tiger says it fits. david: congratulations.

great comeback story. jason, thanks for being here. you can tune into "bloomberg businessweek" on bloomberg radio. coming up here, runners gear up for the 123rd boston marathon. we will talk to john hancock's ceo, the parsable sponsor for the event -- the principal sponsor for the event. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ david: the boston marathon, the 123rd running, one of the great classic sporting events and all of america. we are going to go now to rison, the ceo of john hancock, a long-standing sponsor of the boston marathon. explain to us the connection between john hancock and the

boston marathon. guest: we have been the principal sponsor for 34 years at the boston marathon. it has been a great partnership, a great opportunity for us to raise money for charities and have a number of employees running as well. david: you've raised a good deal of money. i understand it is more than $330 million over those 34 years. where has that money gone? guest: it has gone to a number of great charities, about 150 organizations. we are on track, fingers crossed, to go over $360 million this year, so it is pretty exciting. lisa: i was looking at some of the numbers. the average amount raised per runner is $10,000. how does it compare this year versus prior years? guest: i would say it's probably very similar, if not a little bit more. people here are so generous, and it is wonderful to see the commitment everyone has to the boston marathon. it has been such an iconic marathon over these years, and

we have a number of world-class athletes running, and a lot of weekend warriors as well. it is very easy for people to be able to contribute to charities to help out. david: you've raised an awful lot of money for good charities over the years. as i understand, the tragedy that marred the marathon a few years ago change the contribution level to some degree. guest: absolutely. the commitment to boston strong has been so important. , don't know if you recognize the marathon is for the first time on the anniversary of that tragedy we had. our hearts go out to all of the people that were affected and the families of those that were tragically lost, but we continue to draw all kinds of strength from the community and inspiration from the survivors. lisa: have you ever run it, marianne? guest: i personally have not. i am at the finish line cheering everybody on. lisa: have you run it, david?

david: no, i have not. marianne, thank you very much. she is the ceo of john hancock coming to us from boston. lisa: we want to bring you the goldman sachs earnings because they really highlight the bifurcation in the banking world over the first quarter. ,erger advisory is the star absolutely in the front and center, with revenue coming in better-than-expected. goldman, of course, is a problem firm --prominent, and a prominent, day -- prominent m&a firm. again, this raises a question. how much is this in response to specific flow issues, whether

talking about japanese investors stepping away from u.s. risk, or with the slowing demand from riskier companies not seeing the prospects for incredible growth this late in the credit cycle? david: and there is the longer-term issue of where they want to take this company? m&a advisors are making money, and they are not doing as well in the trading. lisa: it is true, especially since this is a firm that traditionally made its bread-and-butter in debt trading. debt trading did come in better-than-expected. tech --oming up, bull bull tech head of investment strategy joins us to talk about global growth. this is bloomberg. ♪ th. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: financials front and center.

goldman outperforms despite a miss on total revenue. city beats on revenue. a delicate moment, christine lagarde says the world economy hangs in the balance with trade the biggest risk. how good it could have been. president trump says the dow would be a 10,000 points higher but for the fed. president draghi steps into defend his new partner. welcome to bloomberg daybreak. i am david westin alongside lisa abramowicz. lisa: we are looking at a beat on earnings-per-share, a slight miss on revenue, similar to what we saw at goldman sachs. fixed income, currencies of revenue beat estimates while auity revenue came in significant degree below expectations. interesting to see why that is.

anddid debt trading beat why did equity trading fall short at a time when you saw stock markets surge globally? david: we welcome allison williams, bloomberg intelligence senior bank analyst as well as kathryn rooney vera from bulltick. the earnings-per-share was up nicely. allison: that is the bigger story. citigroup is going to continue to be the story into june when we see the third leg of a big buyback from them but overall, fixed income is a little bit better, equities are a little bit worse. quarter a year ago. fixed income a little bit better, that is what we have seen across.

both the positive and goldman, however we should note we don't know how much of the estimated cost may have included estimates for litigation. cost-cutting coming in, it looks better than expected and that is what you would hope for from the banks. mea: what is interesting to because we now have four of the major banks in the united states reporting, this shift away from trading to dealmaking and yes we making advisory but my question is how long can that last and are they inonstrating enough momentum those other businesses away from trading to make a sustainable kind of shift? lisa: i think we are going to hear more about what these banks are seeing. seeing the same from

these banks? the other issue is about that comparison. equity trading had a strong broad-based quarter, fixed income also strong a year ago. business, debt and equity underwriting, we do think that we had a few great years but there are some headwinds seen by our credit strategists, so we think we have a more bearish view on that front. on equity, we heard about the shutdown, how much of that can get pushed into the second quarter? kathryn, let's bring you in. does this tell us something about what is going on with the u.s. economy? kathryn: it does and it is important to factor in treasury rates things to the severe hit in this quarter especially after we got the inversion of the front end of the yield curve.

mike and sentient contention was treasury, in the u.s. that banks would move higher and we did see a move higher from 235 to 250. between 10orrelation year treasury yields and bank prices, it means a potential move further to the upside. if we get that move higher. lisa: this is really interesting. the big surprise seems to be in fixed income trading. they beat expectations but they posted a gain in the force -- in the first quarter. strengthibuted this to in rates and products given how low yields are. how much are we seeing a docking ,f martin -- of market share

speaking to some idiosyncratic push by citigroup that has been successful? allison: for citigroup, they are much more fixed income focused and equity focused. geared toward some of the other -- goldman is a lot more balanced. they are stronger in the rates and currency business. but is also something we heard from j.p. morgan. -- spreadse spread -- when we have spreads sitting positive -- lisa: does this mean they were taking risk and they were on the right side of the trade? allison: to some extent, the flow is where they saw a lot of the business and it is helped by markets and asset prices. are they taking more risk? they were probably a lot more active with those types of clients but i think it is the market environment in credit and

improving equity prices as well. citi is alson, known for its credit card business. is that incur -- is that an encouraging sign for the consumer or should we be worried about over leveraging? kathryn: the consumer is certainly improving in terms of optimism and spending habits. iwould not be consumed -- would not be concerned entombment -- in terms of consumer leveraging. next -- when you get banks doing better and increasing their lending to can stash to the consumer, that is a good sign and this being a -- lending to the consumer, that is a good sign. back to your question on the fixed income trading and market share, a few important

metrics we are going to hear next week. deutsche's reporting next week, as some of the talks have accelerated. we get more headlines that signal to us that first quarter may not have gone so well. we will see a little bit more next week. lisa: this is interesting. allison: how much of it is further share gains from the europeans? allisonloomberg's williams, thank you for being with us. kathryn rooney vera of bulltick will be sticking with us. lisa: let's bring in gerard cassidy, rbc capital markets equity research director. they have an outperform rating on citi. let's get your initial read of citigroup earnings. gerard: the initial read is positive. they beat on the bottom line versus expectations. you guys have talked about the strength of the trading market. that is one of the real

strengths when you compare them to a morgan stanley or goldman sachs who have a stronger equity trading area. the is more dominant in fixed trading area. what we are seeing from j.p. morgan is the europeans are still struggling. there is market share all of these companies are seeing because of the weaker european competitive environment. lisa: to that point, the idea that big u.s. banks are gaining shares from -- gaining share from european banks, why did citi beat by so much more than people expected while you did not see the same with j.p. morgan? gerard: each quarter is idiosyncratic where it bounces around. we will hear more from them in their conference call. their customers were more engaged.

they are certainly more involved in the derivatives business. they are global, they've got great relationships with their customers and they showed up in this quarter. lisa: one other question i have is we did see debt and equity underwriting revenues decline across the board. the lack of demand for leveraged finance, does that indicate something negative about the economy or is that a cork of the first quarter -- a cork -- a quirk of the first quarter? gerard: in looking at the leveraged lending market being a concern, because of the size of it, the leveraged finance area has started to feel -- field some of that pressure, banks pulling back from her dissipating. i would also say in december, we

had a real tough high-yield market, so it took more time to get up and running but even though there is pressure from global regulators, i would expect it to improve as the year progresses and we come away from that december month. lisa: one thing i was wondering was charles peabody, saying he sees signs of a turn in consumer credit worthiness. do you see the same? gerard: consumer credit is still strong. it is coming off incredibly low levels of delinquencies and charge-offs. business,prime auto that has been a concern for a couple years. fortunately, most of the american banks are not lenders into that market. the credit card to link with the numbers are creeping up slightly, but there coming off of such low levels.

you have ament, if forecast of unemployment rising to 4.5%, then i would say the consumer credit numbers should be looked at a little more conservatively. right now with the employment theure being the way it is, debt service of the typical american consumer is at record low levels. we will see problems and can -- we will not see problems in consumer credit at this time. david: gerard cassidy of rbc capital markets, thank you for being with us. now for "first word news." uma: china is considering the u.s. requester shift tariffs on key farm products to other goods. oncerump administration that so we can sell any trade deal as a win for farmers before the election. china may also buy more u.s. agricultural products as part of that agreement. president trump is slamming the federal reserve.

he says the stock market would be quote, 5000 to 10,000 points higher if not for the fed's actions. he tweeted the fed should have done the opposite. the mayor of south bend, indiana has announced he is running for the democratic nomination for president. he is an underdog but he has seen an uptick of support recently. gay, he years old, speaks seven languages and spent eight years in the naval reserve. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tick toc on twitter, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am uma pemmaraju. this is bloomberg. david: thanks so much. president trump takes aim at the fed again, saying it is holding back the stock market. how much is the central bank weighing on markets? we will talk about that next. ♪

uma: hello everybody. i am uma pemmaraju with your bloomberg business flash. best buy has named a new ceo. replacing hubert joly who will transfer to the newly created role of executive chairman. jolley took over the chain back in 2012. shares have quadrupled since then. president trump has advice for boeing, tweeting out today that he would fix the plane and add some additional great features and rebrand it with a new name. the president writing no product

has suffered like this one. in saudi arabia, the nation j case sovereign wealth fund is excepting a bridge loan of up to $8 billion. the public investment fund has started talks with banks but funding would be used for new investments to diversify the saudi economy. that is your bloomberg business flash. back to you. david: thank you so much uma. president trump tweeted once again about the damage he says the federal reserve did by hiking interest rates, saying if the fed had done its job properly which it has not, the stock market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points in gdp would have been well over 4%. we welcome back kathryn rooney vera from bulltick. that's about the stock market. let's talk about emerging markets. did the fed do some damage to emerging markets as they said they were going to keep hiking and had to reverse course? kathryn: the fed is incredibly

critical to emerging markets. fed hikes rates, it takes away the premium on emerging market demands. when it looks like they're going to cut rates, it is positive with regard to the search for risk appetite. i expect volatility to continue. flows to emerging markets, fixed incomes and equities have been extremely volatile. that is a bit concerning to me. if we get a fed that holds rates where they are with a stable dollar, that will continue to bring flows into the emerging markets which has been undervalued and under held through the entirety of 2018. lisa: talk more about the outflows we had. i was looking at emerging markets etf, it's out -- it's

saw its biggest outflow in more than a year. i am wondering from your perspective, what is driving that? kathryn: a lot of concerns recently with the risk of a u.s. slow down and the fed having to pendings because of u.s. recessions. that was one of the big questions, what is the risk of a u.s. recession, of the fed having to drop rates for a bearish reason and that would not be positive for emerging markets. ofis a combination uncertainties with regard to where the risk appetite is going to move over the course of the remainder of the year. a net positive if the dollar stays stable. if the fed cuts one time, that is a net positive. and igoing to outperform

think that is going to be the case if you get u.s. growth at 2.5% above consensus. those fears of a recession seem to have dimmed. much of it is the fed and how much of it is china? i think it was a triple whammy at the end of last year. u.s.s the fear on a recession and trade that no one talks about anymore. the consensus now is that we will get a u.s. and china trade pact. that has already been priced in. consumer discretionary in china is up 30%. i would say sell chinese equities at this point because it is largely -- because a trade

accord is largely baked in. concern withless regard to a recession or a trade war and that was our view coming into the year. now the positions or updating and emerging markets have done exceedingly well, even though we have had volatility in the past couple of weeks. what i am telling my clients now is to protect your position. look to buy brazil and argentina. these are places that have been delayed and dragged in their own performance. -- in there outperformance. lisa: kathryn rooney vera of bulltick, thank you for sticking with us. coming up, one man's trash is another man's treasure. that is next in today's bottom line. ♪

david: time for the bottom line

where we look at three companies worth marching -- worth watching. forg deal to buy epsilon $4.4 billion. organic growth for the world's the third-largest advertiser is going down. epsilon is big data. advertising is getting absolutely cannibalized by online advertising. we are also looking at boeing. american airlines becoming the latest air traffic company to say they are not going to use the 737 max jet that was involved in two different crashes. president trump tweeting this morning, what do i know about branding, but he suggested that he would rebrand the plane with the new name and some additional great features and call it a day. david: he doesn't have anything else on his platter. lisa: donald trump as their

advisor. david: the third company we are watching is waste management. books sutherland joins us now. it it -- brooke sutherland joins us now. it is a big company. brooke: not the sexiest subject matter to talk about garbage but waste management is requiring advanced disposal services. this is a premium to the high the company hit in march. and went public in 2016 after being backed by private equity. they delayed that because of unfavorable equity decisions. lisa: where do they get their money? brooke: waste management? they are tapping the debt markets. lisa: where does it come from? brooke: governments. they outsource trash collection services to these private companies and then manage it. they primarily specialize is the

-- in the eastern half of the united states. isid: the number one player buying the number four player. it is going to have like 30% market share. is there any concern about concentration? brooke: there has been a ton of consolidation in the trash collection spatial -- collection space. there have been a couple deals between progressive and waste connections. that was an inversion deal. at, is something to look there too much consolidation of power? this is an industry where you would like to see efficiency and they are talking about $100 billion. lisa: or jack up the price for governments. david: and the overall pie is growing. the total revenue in that sector is growing by 6% per year.

brooke: we generate more trash. just the plethora of amazon boxes we have creates a lot more recycling. lisa: and the fact that china is stepping back from recycling. bloombergherland of opinion, thank you so much. a chorus of global growth concerns at the latest meeting. we will look at greece's financial odyssey next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: this is bloomberg daybreak. i am lisa abramowicz in alix steel puree looking at markets

-- i am lisa abramowicz in for alix steel. client across the board. -- client across the board. -- quiet across the board. oil losing as we get the sense there is a gain in production in the united states the output is increasing. quiet across the board. interesting gold is not getting a bit. empire manufacturing numbers are out and exceeded the survey totals. over 10%. that is a little bit of a surprise. manufacturing more things in new york than we thought. lisa: interesting given the fact that pmi has been struggling. a beat here is an aberration. joining us is michael mckee, bloomberg international economics and politics. kathryn rooney vera still with those as well.

mike, what is your reaction? michael: it says the beat goes on. it is a change from the prior month but we saw unexpected slowing in february and now we are rebounding. new york is not a huge manufacturing sector, so it does not get a lot of sector in the markets, but it is the first one of the month we see among manufacturing. david: put this in a larger perspective of global growth. you are at the imf meeting. there was concern about global growth. is this more of the same or is there a problem? -- new york iss. not a manufacturing powerhouse, but it is 13% of gdp and it is a good indicator of future economic activity. i take solace in the fact we have other strong economic trajectory rather than a

deceleration toward -- from the imf perspective, i would tell you there is a lot less pessimism with regard to chinese growth. regards pessimism with to european growth, which remained stagnant, dried down by a lack of structural reforms. certainly more interest with regard to risk-taking, with regard to economic growth from the emerging market space, specifically china with the stimuli it has been able to execute. lisa: people talk about this transition in the economy away from a manufacturing economy toward services, especially in developed markets. i wonder how you factor that in when you are looking at manufacturing data? michael: you realize it is a small portion of the economy. still important. one of the things people do not realize is we make as much stuff as we ever did, we do it with fewer people. that is the political aspect of it.

what happens to people who lose their jobs to taught a major and the different what -- due to automation. it does not mean we make anything less. that gets lost in the arguments when you talk about what you do going forward. all the people who do not get manufacturing jobs have to move into the service industries. the service industries are lower paying. it contributes to the idea of how we take care of workers. david: we heard from christine lagarde, that of the imf, that we are in a delicate situation. does the data indicate how delicate the situation is? athryn: we are seeing deceleration. i would be less pessimistic than calling it delicate or fragile. i think we are in a good economic cycle but there is one thing i would add to the conversation and mike mentioned it. there has been a rotation way away from manufacturing jobs toward retail and/or hospitality.

reason we have had inflation so subdued, especially from the real wages perspective. this is a structural thing. you will have low inflation for a long time. it is not that the phillips curve is defunct, but the inputs have changed and that means autumn asian -- that means automation and robotics asian have changed -- and robotization have changed. it means a fed that can state steady for the remainder of the year. christine lagarde was talking about how these wounds are self-inflicted due to the trade tensions. he woulduchin saying expect the u.s. to follow some sort of enforcement mechanism, the enforcement mechanism works both ways. the u.s. would honor its commitments in tandem with the chinese agreement on trade. how important is a comment like this in terms of indicating a

softening of the stance and the fact that we are getting closer to a trade deal? michael: this could move way toward bringing the chinese to the table. the initial position was we get to keep sanctions until we decide you are in compliance, and you do not get to do anything to us even if we break the rules. they are change that. you will not get anyone to the table on a one-sided deal. they would assume we will not be breaking the rules. individual companies may do that. my question is one of the enforcement mechanisms? it is a sign their moving closer. there are stories about who might do what in terms of sanctions. wait until we know what they actually will do. a lot of leaks, a lot of suppositions, they will not alter out to be true. david: the market is pricing in some sort of the deal between the united states and china.

how big is the downside of that did not happen? kathryn: i agree and that is what i was thinking. if we do not get an agreement, what should -- what christine lagarde was talking about comes to fruition, delicacy of the global economy. it would be a big down from the market perspective. there is so much at stake for anyone, either side to put that in play work with the markets in jeopardy, i think it is a tale risk, but that would be a major leg down. the biggest risk at this point is corporate leveraging, which is gone higher. it is deficits and debt. even that is not the primary risk for this year. these are long-term issues. for this year, i'm feeling bullish. --hink u.s. investors and sugar may investors and protect the profits. mike, i would love your

sense as we get the economic data. we've seen the citigroup surprise index going to its lowest level since 2017. i'm wondering what that indicates? wall street analysts have gotten long -- have got it wrong and been too optimistic at the fastest rate since 2017. michael: if you look at your chart, you see it going up and down. it is a lagging indicator. it does not tell you what is going to happen. the numbers we are starting to see now are getting better. we are seeing better i has them -- we're seeing better ism numbers. jobless rates going to ridiculous lows. will watch this week when we get retail sales. whether those coming better than expected and whether we had a soft patch at the beginning of the year. we usually do with the first quarter and maybe now starting to come back. vera andthryn rooney

bloombergs michael mckee, thank you for being with us. growth may be a concern in china and germany, but it appears to be coming in greece. matt winkler, bloomberg editor-in-chief has written for bloomberg on what he calls the greek revival. he is here to take us through what he found. bloomberg, i came to during the summer of greece, where every single day the sky was falling, and now we do not hear about greece and much anymore. that is because, if you are looking for a growth stock in terms of return, since last time you and i had a conversation in 2015, you're talking about more than 200%. that is the bond market. greece has been the lodestar for eu resilience in the face of concerns about the fragmentation of the european union.

of thehas been a symbol rebound from the financial crisis and the recession depression afterwards, and investors around the world have made greece the most prized debt in the sovereign bond market. i have to wonder, how much does this say greece is doing well and how much does it say the european central bank is buying anything and everything and investors are being pushed into riskier scenarios in europe. have beenpeople who buying greece since 2015 have been mostly private investors, mostly people from all of the world. france, belgium, canada, the united states, prudential is a big buyer of greek debt going back several years. this is not something that is coming from a central authority. this is a value investment.

what people are looking at is an economy that has rebounded 2012, which was the worst of it. that is when greece was in the thick of its depression. unemployment has collapsed, from .0% to 16% still high number, but going in the right direction. greece has a budget surplus and will have a budget surplus for the next three years. this is an economy that is outperforming every major economy in europe. david: that is not simply the search for yield? matt: it certainly is a search for yield but you are now talking of a yield of 3%. that is the handle on greece. that is down from 30%. david: did they fix those problems, they don't collect taxes, they spend too much money, remember all of those fundamentals? is thehe next president

very person who was in charge of in the government that negotiated the second bailout. that is significant. greece is now poised to reap the benefits of the reforms. there was a big benefit that came out of that agreement, which was the average weighted maturity of greek debt is north of 25 years. there is no country in europe that has that kind of , that quarter of a century to figure everything out. that is a big reason why investors are excited about greece. lisa: it might be the summer of greece for a different reason. matt winkler, bloomberg editor-in-chief. coming up, and private equity exits image problem. that is next. this is bloomberg.

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lisa: this is bloomberg daybreak. you're looking at the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. coming up later on balance of power, ambassador edward cheering. this is bloomberg. we want to take a look at private equity performance. erik schatzker is here with his you know of a firm that has more than $22 billion in assets. erik: thank you are much and good morning to you.

inequality and wealth are shaping up to be signature issues in the 2020 election, certainly in the democratic primary. private equity is a lightning rod. already the banking industry is under major scrutiny. what happens when progressives turn their attention on your industry? steve: if people understand what private equity is, anyone would like it, whether you're a democrat or republican. my own firm tracks job creations. we have over 43,000 jobs. -- we created over 43,000 jobs. erik: in addition to running new mountain, you are chairman of the american investment counsel. this is the trade organization .or the private equity industry what is the strategy for coming up local attacks. is helping of it

people understand what private equity is. private equity, we own and build companies for a number of years. it is a form of business where you own and manage a number of businesses. erik: you think the industry has an image problem? steve: it should be a much better image. money,re other people's where danny devito goes in and sales at the desk, or the manchurian candidate movie was made made -- was remade, it was a private equity firm. i think her image can be must better -- i think our image can be much better. erik: not all of the facts are favorable, right? steve: i could mention toys "r" us, i can mention pay less, i could mention philadelphia energy solutions. these were private equity deals where leverage hastened the decline in bankruptcy. steve: there are 5000 private

equity firms that have invested $5 trillion into main street companies. out of 30,000 companies, particularly in retail, where so many retailers are being destroyed, you can always find bad stories. from my own firm, where i contract things -- over 43,000 jobs created, 4.6 billion of r&d software and capex, never a in never missed interest payment. you can always find bad stories out of 30,000 companies in those are the ones that get the headlines, because we do have an image problem. erik: is there a sense of executivesng buyout that if you do not address the image problem, something is going to happen in the 2020 election or the aftermath? steve: i do not think it is the sense of urgency.

the statistics i am giving you about my own firm, we started a tract in 20 -- in 2008 and we publish on her website. i felt a particular need to do it. when lehman went down there was so much anger about business and wall street and private equity. i think it is important for any business to explain why what you are doing is a good thing. .hat my firm does is good i think there are 5000 firms and overall what we do is good. . erik: new mountain is different from other private equity firms. you talked about never defaulted on an interest payment. you've not had a bankruptcy. you use less leverage. i would say that is tantamount to being more conservative and you emphasize growth over financial engineering. that being the case, look at the

environment. private equity deals are trading at almost 12 times even dollar. this is an industry that swore it would never pay more than 10 times. how do you find anything to buy? steven: some of the deals you talked about our software companies, fast-growing software where the public companies trade at or above what private equity is paying. my own firm tries to buy more growth at a reasonable price. foraid under 10 times everything we bought, even though we are selling for above 10 times ebt. every firm has its own strategy. it is a form of business, not a form of finance. or doa way to do business not have 90 day reporting the way a family business can think. erik: anyone and financial

markets today is aware of the ship rum public to private. private equity has benefited. is there too much capital chasing too few deals? steven: that has not shown up yet because the returns for private equity have been very strong, they have outperformed the public indices. periodss been multiple were public equity has been negative, no periods where private equity has had negative returns. you are powered with a fund isey, but what you are doing dependent on the business skill of the general partner of the firm. more, the -- more and very best operating managers are leaving public companies in joining private equity or they can think in multi-year periods privately, and you are seeing some of the best operating managers could -- the best

operating managers. erik: i want to ask you about this. one of the issues you decided to focus on personally. aspect. a political the cost of college tuition. why is that? steven: i've been involved in education reform for over 25 years. outside of business, my chief charity is an education reform. i sit up afterschool centers 25 years ago that still run, and the cost of college, whatever party you are in, is one of the major problems in the nation. debttrillion of student and there are ways to improve the problem. erik: your not-for-profit is helping people earn college credits, effectively for nothing? steven: we have set up a charity called modernstates.org. if you want to help your family or friends save money, get a modernstates.org.

it sounds, and i've had a look at it, by all accounts, an interesting program and a way for people to gain access to college-level education at a much lower price. how do we deal with the root problem and not the symptom? the problem is college is too expensive and the rate of tuition inflation is out of control. steven: i do not have an answer for the entire university system. erik: should public universities be free? steven: that is not an issue i have an answer for. it costs a lot of money to deliver in classroom education. if it is free to the student, the taxpayers pay for it. it will be a cost either way. what i'm doing is different. it is not all that expensive to get a great professor to teach an online course once and let everyone in the world then use it.

we have created, we have hired some of the best professors in the country to teach 32 of the most fundamental courses with free textbooks and there is a path to credit through the exam from the college board. 130,000 people have started using this program. erik: thank you very much. these issues will no doubt be issues in the next election. great to have you here. klinsky, ceo and founder of new mountain capital. too small toup, notice. tax -- president trump 2017 cut is not having the impact he hoped for. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: here is what i am watching. it is tax day. april 15. have you already filed years? david: oh yes. that you have the fact

people are realizing they might own taxes and as a result only 1/5 of americans believe they have gotten a tax cut from said tax cuts that president trump past. david: which is a problem, not just for americans but the republican party. lisa: the other thing i think is interested is how much of a hit will the high tax states end up taking as a result of being unable to deduct more than $10,000. david: i'm one of those guys. certainly hate you. lisa: coming up, kerry -- gary wiseman. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪

500than: coming up, the s&p delivering a third week of gains. the equity benchmark within 1% of an all-time high. the president suggesting it would be higher if not for the fed. the attack on chairman powell continues. the banks on wall street owning a top quarter behind them. 30 minutes away from the opening bell, good morning. futures totally unchanged on the s&p 500. the euro a touch firmer over the last week, 1.1313. treasury yields unchanged on the day, up over the last weeks to 2.57. we begin with our top story. a lack of conviction behind in equity market near an all-time high. >> all institutional investors were cautious. >> there is evidence of higher than average cash settled. >>