nejra: washington and beijing shakeup atp talks jpmorgan, a shuffle at the top starts the fresh discussion about who will follow jamie dimon. , william a mueller day barr is set to release a final report into the trump russia probe. we break down what to watch. ♪ welcome to- nejra:

surveillance. we have a bit of a painful reading in germany. , april services pmi falls to 52.5. soft and theittle april manufacturing come in soft as well. 47.8, the forecast was 48. the euro under pressure. it did not get pretty numbers out of france. down .3%. we are under a bit of a risk off tone. today we are in the red down .3% on the stocks succumbed -- stoxx 600. we have done a survey that showed that strategist are seeing it lower by almost 9%. that is something to bear in mind. the year yields down for basis

points -- 4 basis points. you can generally see the risk off tone across the market. coming up, we will speaking to the ceo of blackstone stephen schwarzman. but now, let's get the first word news in new york. >> a redacted version of robert mueller's final report is set to be released later today. it is something that many folks are looking forward to. it is expected to provide some insight to mueller's conclusion on conspiring with russia and obstruction of justice in other news, the u.s. economy is slowing -- growing at a slight to moderate pace. most districts are seeing stronger home sales and manufacturing conditions seen as favorable. the fed recently scrapped forecasts for rate hikes.

the guggenheim partners says this could cause recession. >> it will be a strong economy in the second quarter. if the fed does not react it probably pushes the recession risk further into the future and ande we are maybe we are not going to see the recession until 2021.

>> the treatment to correct the general effect. it has been licensed to a small pharmaceutical company that plans to file for regulatory approval. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you. there is growing speculation that the u.s. and china are close to a trade deal and an announcement could come next month. the two sides are checking diaries for face-to-face talks as sources president trump and xi jinping at sign a deal in late may. >> our trade deal is moving along and moving along nicely.

it is moving along quite well. nejra: trade talks between countries have been going for months. the company is blaming weakness in china. joining us this morning is the chief across asset strategist at .organ stanley let's start with this prospect of progress in these trade talks how much of this is actually --cing by the markets spirit markets. >> we are back up to the levels .f equity multiples there is a lot of optimism, partly because of the hope around the trade deal has been

tripped fed into the market over the course of the last couple of months. but the optimism is not everywhere, but there are certain sectors that have lacked considerably that have positive exposure things like the auto sector in europe. the broader em complex is still well off. placek there is still a to price in less optimism, but thinking this is mostly the price. nejra: does this strengthen the prospect for you on strength -- yuan strength? >> i get does, just like you were saying that there is a lot to be priced in. , youn terms of businesses can really see a pickup in pmi. we're seeing inventory is being destocked of us of any kind of pickup would lead to a boost. we are calling for a rally in the yuan as well. nejra: would you agree? >> very much so, that a similar

to how we are seeing things. we do not think that devaluation or weakness is going to be part of china's strategy. that they are going to become a current account deficit country. it is very much to the point that the narrative from here is going to be about the pmi outside of the u.s. picking up and maybe u.s. pmi continuing to soften. soften. nejra: i think you might have a similar view on u.s. versus the rest of the world. hasn't worn to the muted reaction -- has its warranted

the muted reaction? >> maybe stimulus will not be so forthcoming. we do think there is a risk on frontloaded stimulus, but overall, we have had a consistent bounceback in chinese data that should be a lot more supportive. what would be your approach to benefit from the bottoming out of chinese growth? which asset would you be looking at to sort of pinpoint as the best opportunity? >> i think the best point about emerging-market foreign-exchange is a good one. that is an asset were valuations are still cheap and reasonable. i think that the narrative of a stabilization in china let alone acceleration, would be supportive of flows. generally, those flows would meet. i think the em fixed income side is attractive. onre still constructive chinese equities, that is another market we like.

i do think there is a potential that the european cyclicals, which have been underperforming could be seen as a proxy and a way to position for china picking up and something that has not moved as much. that is an area our strategist like. nejra: interesting. our guests stay with us for the hour. up next, we talked the future of ceo --n after the new cfo. we discuss, this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg: surveillance." a shape -- shakeup started a fresh discussion on the succession plans at jpmorgan. anne-marie, run us through this reshuffle. annmarie: that's right, it is bring up the question of potential successors and just adds another woman to the pipeline who could potentially read the banks -- lead the banks. first is jennifer who has been in the firm for two decades and is moving into the cfo role. on top of that, mary and take, lake, oftenianne touted as a potential successor moving into the consumer unit. it will give her more of an operational role. the key takeaway is this is adding another woman to the bench.

-- nejra: when you leave the bank, you need as much exposure as possible. where does this put them in relation to other banks? >> having a woman they contacted the future. it comes at an interesting time. jamie dimon and his other colleagues were just in congress and grilled about this is that subject, could someone from a minority group ever take over as a ceo? the timing is interesting, and you're looking at a chart of gender imbalance. not as bad as oil and gas, but you can see that finance still pretty imbalanced.

just 39% as a whole for the sector. nejra: and it is not just the whole business, but in those upper echelons we are focusing on. that's why is so important. with this. -- so important to talk about this. let's get the business flash. being near to buy these holdings, the first cross-border cannabis deal and it is expected the deal could be made public. acreage throwing 15%, canopy is the world's largest cannabis company and its shares jumped in late trading in new york. in other news, pinterest is raising $1.4 billion in its ipo. the company is selling shares for $19, above the 15-17 dollar range. this values pinterest at about $10 billion. that is the bloomberg business flash, back to you. nejra: thank you. the latest fed beige book survey shows the u.s. economy grew at a

slight to moderate pace. manufacturing conditions were seen as favorable despite some uncertainty. but u.s. stocks fell to a one-week low as the latest batch of corporate earnings did little to boost confidence. meanwhile some are forecasting that the fed deposits pushing a recession that. -- back. pivots is taking pressure off and we are starting to see the economy be reinvigorated. especially areas that have been under a lot cyclical culture. so the bounceback in the economy is going to be pretty strong. if the fed does not react to that, that probably pushes the recession further into the future. maybe we are not going to see the recession until 2021. nejra: still with us are our guests. i believe you are targeting a

weaker dollar from here, why? >> i guess it is not a u.s. story more a pickup in growth china,re is in u.s. in finally reaching. also brexit risk receiving. it is much more of a pickup of global growth. really, reproduction trend levels. nejra: how much risk that we have of volatility ticking up? we getting too complacent about the outlook and the impact it might have? >> i think we are for two reasons. the first is that there is an enormous amount of confidence that volatility would not rise can't rise because the fed would not allow it to. and yet the vast preponderance of evidence is that when the fed and thatrowth is weak

is the scenario we are worried about, that the weak growth almost always win. moreeak growth drives the challenging or volatile market back the fed can help push -- cushion the blow but not reverse the trend. the second element is just the starting level of volatility. what is expected is so low. you are at a point in the cycle where activity is somewhat extended. the market is telling you this key decision points because the curve is flat and the market cannot decide if the next move is up or down. those have been times where ball -- vol has been low. one needs to be careful about just going out and buying a lot of volatility, but i think that is the way we want to be biased. i don't buy this goldilocks environment things will be called type of view -- calm type

of view. nejra: if you look at volatility, a chart will show you currency volatility is two standard deviations below the long-term average. andrew was to say that even though it is not cheap, that might be one way to prepare. how would you prepare for a spike in volatility? profit, options, straddles, strangles? >> i always favor a directional the. the turkishng at lira, that is one area where volatility is under rice and takes one headline, one political development, if you got domestic conditions in place there is a real economy crisis going on and a lot of external fx debt held by locals and lira depreciation was start a self-perpetuating cycle. certainly, that is one area in this environment where we really could see volatility to, kind of

focusing in on the idiosyncratic story. yesterday, i was saying that if you look at the lead, it is almost like march fomc did not happen. but morgan stanley was certainly one of the big house and the downgraded its 10 year yield forecast. where you sit on that now? >> we still think the yield what -- will end lower. it is consistent with the idea that the economy slows. , first-quarter gdp is tracking a little bit better. our economist has it's tracking at 1.9 which means the second order will look worse. you still have a big fiscal drag. think pmi will continue to decline at some of that they that looks like it continues to

slow. it will be consistent with rate forecast that the 10 year yield will end lower. we are in that cap and think it would contrast to moderately higher yields. nejra: ok! our guests stay with us. report rollout, washington in weight or the full report of mueller's finding. we break out when you watch for next. this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: economics, finance,

politics, this is "bloomberg: surveillance." still with us are our guests. we've had european data that has been quite painful, particularly german manufacturing emi -- pmi. you said you have been expecting a turnaround in terms of europe doing that or and the u.s. doing worse. this data is not supporting that's at the moment. >> that's fair, it is not. we have had to downgrade our forecast to where we had at the start of the year. that said, when i think about the outlook and the interest that markets will move the i think you can make a much stronger case that european pmi's which are low have a better chance of rising than u.s. pmi's, which are still elevated and above trend. economistonship our

encounter is there tends to be a three-month lag between a trough in china's pmi and european pmi. and we have seen that trough go into place a month and a half ago. so i think we are approaching a point where, six months from now , we will talking that european pmi eating better. -- being better. that is a reason why, over the next 6-12 months we think the euro, the pound, or higher -- ar e higher. young currencies will move first, but even european currencies will end higher. nejra: and do you see a stronger euro i the end of the year based on european data or the dollar weakness you're talking about earlier? >> a little bit of both. where the pmi goes, europe follows. we are hoping for a rebound in eurozone pmi, principally led by germany. looking for a weaker euro.

we see a very shallow slow climb, looking at about 1.17 towards the end of the year. and we see the market tentatively pricing in for ecb policy normalization. and a little bit of a rebound, we do think it is a structural weakness story. us.a: our guests stay with unilevernestle and report with better than expected sales. all the details next, this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: economics, finance, politics. our headline crossing the bloomberg, china light expects his quarter income to rise 80%

to 100% on the year. days of gains, the stoxx 600 is on the back foot looking. features also a little softer. the 10 year yield moves lower as we move above ¥260 yesterday. followings and data out of .urope in terms of pni -- pmi let's get to u.k. data crossing the bloomberg right now. we are looking at retail sales. what i am seeing in terms of retail sales, month on month including auto and fuel, retail sales up 1.1%. better than expected. a decline was expected. auto year on year up 6.2% and the expectation was 4%. board we are seeing better-than-expected retail sales for march in the u.k.

in terms of the reaction, not a huge reaction, but paring some of the declines from earlier in the session. forecast was for a drop of 0.3%. attorney general william barr planning a news conference today. here is a reminder of what president trump had to say on the suspect -- subject. it is at trump: disgrace that they continue. you know what, you don't impeach people when they are doing a good job. there was no collusion. not only did i not work for thata but it's a disgrace he even asked the question. one thing that was proven today,

no collusion. no collusion. there hasn't been collusion. everyone knows it's a hoax. one of the greatest hoaxes perpetrated on this country. schenker, great to see you again. catch us up on what we know so far. marty: attorney general barr will have a press conference at of0 a.m. before the release the report to congress. adam schiff has already criticized him for trying to control the narrative by not releasing any of the report before he has a chance to answer questions about a report which no one will have seen at the time. nejra: will president trump have a look at it gekko -- added? -- a look at it? will he tweet about it?

marty: my senses that the white house will not have a chance to review it. but donald trump will try to control the storyline behind this report as he has for months. 400 pages will include a lot more than just that conclusion and that is what everybody is going to want to find out. that would take you like 30 minutes to read. be because itd will be redacted. there are legitimate reasons to do that. sources and methods, for instance. that is one of the big takeaways. be able of it we will to read or even understand. content officer marty schenker. now let's get to bloomberg first word news. jong-unth korea's kim

continues to ramp up its arsenal. overseeing a test firing of a tactical guide weapon. new report remains vague about this, suggesting the device is not a nuclear device or an interconnect -- intercontinental ballistic missile. and this sets him up for the second term as president for the world's third largest democracy. i've it polling agencies has him ahead by seven percentage points. the official results won't be announced until may but other official polls have proven accurate in last elections. it could have a huge impact on the country's economic growth, bringing it down to zero. this is coming from the country's central bank. the power shortage could lead to the worst expansion figures

since 2009. opposition leaders say more needs to come from the private sector. >> i think it is that model of ownership. an experiment of gene therapy has cured eight infants. it is an immune system deficiency that children who contracted the disease or once in total isolation. but there is a treatment to connect the genetic defect. it tends to file for regulatory approval. on tictocs on air and on twitter powered by more than and analysts in more than 120 countries. nejra: new signs of life.

at nestle report of the strongest start to a year as price increases is to growth. unilever also started the year on a better-than-expected note. sales were driven by emerging markets in asia. daily and us, and the andrew from morgan stanley. becauseart with this the bloomberg writer of these two reports is that both nestle and unilever managed to raise prices without stunting growth. you make a distinction between the two stocks. >> i prefer nestle. the quality of growth is better. i think there is more potential for management to shape and reshape the business. and crucially, they got into a guidance

regime that admits to no room for failure. and that brings risk. nejra: and does it has something to do with the two companies? >> the critique of unilever is that they are to pricing dependent. it does stick. and in terms of further growth as well for both of these countries -- companies, had you make those comparisons? an60% of unilever is emerging markets. just over 40% of nestle sales. all things being equal, you would be long unilever over nestle. life are signs of returning in emerging markets, particularly brazil. it has been more evident for nestle. the good news story is that emerging markets are coming

back. nejra: what is the outlook for nestle over unilever and risk? -- the risk is, on the unilever side, and improve performance? and nestle, the biggest risk is the valuation. it is trading at a big premium. main risk on nestle's disappointment relative to high expectations. nejra: looking at the broader earnings season is well, you have seen a pretty good couple of days. it has been a little bit more mixed. how much momentum on the upside you see for european equities based on earnings? closed at 9% by year's end.

>> you had a good chart on the segment before to much on the relative earnings expectations between europe and the rest of the world. that really has changed. have different earnings dynamics going on in the u.s. market where you have big tailwinds from tax and from the currency they are rolling off, and there will be a big drag under the ability of u.s. companies to go -- grow arrest medically. arithmetically. limited certainly more upside from here but i think the earnings narrative over the next easier quarters will be for europe, easier for japan, easier for em to beat numbers and put on a solid earnings growth story. we have talked

specifically nestle and unilever today. we had the earnings out. what other stocks would you be favoring or disfavoring as we head into this earnings season. >> on average, i favor food. nestle is my key pick. does nothing else i like in the space. anemicay was much more than today. it testifies to how difficult growth is to come by. we celebrating 3% growth this morning. we would be excited about 6% growth. nejra: i take your point. us. with an unofficial winner in indonesia. the incumbentw securing a second term. we will talk markets next. this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: economics, finance, politics. this is bloomberg surveillance in london. it is the year of the unicorn. interest is said to make it public debut today. it joins the ranks of lift and other ipos that have raised close to $1 billion -- $100 billion this year. dani burger has more. when i was five and asked what i wanted to be when i grew up, i said a unicorn. was that a good idea? dani: it is the best idea. unicorns famously do well in the short term. i have high hopes going forward. the first-day of trading was one

of the most consistent trading patterns and financial markets. that is what ipos have a positive return. over the past 40 years, this is an average 18%. are enjoyed by investors who get in at the ipo allocation. percent of these returns are due to that. most pinterest investors will be buying at the open. the returns they will enjoy will actually be pretty amenable. but looking at medium returns, what does that look like so far this year in the u.s.? have beene white beating the s&p 500 by 15%. this israeli risk appetite, tech being a popular sector of course. but over the long term, if we 60% ofve years out, those would have negative returns.

this looks good right now, but the further away we get, the cloutier the picture becomes. cloudier the- picture becomes. nejra: the s&p has risen to the strongest in two months after a quick count shows that the current president of indonesia is set to win the election. there is billions of dollars of short-term borrowing. this raises questions about the ability to combat any fresh euro crisis. turning to equities, guggenheim partners tells bloomberg that he and is now a good alternative to u.s. stocks. is now a good alternative to u.s. stocks. >> relative to the total value of emerging markets, we are historically widespread. one of the places that is very under owned his emerging markets. if you're going to have equity

exposure, emerging markets is an interesting place to have some of your exposure rather than the large-cap u.s. markets. something tells me that you are going to agree with what stock miners were saying. i enjoyed reading a recent note of years that em is like an impressionist painting. the from afar but ugly up close? andrew: the analogy that i'm trying to draw is that with any good impressionist painting, it is beautiful from a distance and messier the closer you get to it. the asset allocators that are looking at this asset class, that are looking at it from a distance, they see a fed that is pausing. reasonable valuations, improving china data. a lot of things that you would want for a macro em story. but when the for fully a managers get the money, they are

confronted with more challenging idiosyncratic country level stories. i don't think it stops the performance. can continue to outperform but it may create crowding into the stories that are easier for the portfolio managers to get behind. there is stimulus coming in. you might have catalyst from a trade deal. thans been a cleaner story others out there. nejra: what stories are you getting behind? eimear: i have to agree with andrew that there is a broad trend into em and investors are not looking at idiosyncratic's. it is something investors are not reacting to. we have seen significant inflows of african bonds. traders are just ignoring really

weak growth pictures in south africa emerging from a very long recession. low volatility and a weaker overlookingthey are the nasty edges. buthink this will continue it is definitely a nuanced story. and andrew, you said you are still favoring chinese equities. but if you look across asset as well, are you favoring credit? across theandrew: space, risk-adjusted looks better. think about the return to volatility. i think the em credit asset market has a yield of around 5.5% to 6% with volatility around 4%. a fund, it would be seeing huge amounts of inflows right now.

and it inc. are certain parts of you canl market where find high-yield interest rates with reasonably valued currencies. those of the markets we are focused on. these idiosyncratic stories are very diverse. i think there are a number of places with real rates and reasonably valued currencies. the indonesian rupiah has been outperforming to the upside in the turkish lira is underperforming. but we did have two days of strength. do you see them underperforming markets for the rest of the year? eimear: we are looking at a selloff on lira for the culmination of risk and investors continuing to pile out turkish assets. for an fxeally going deposit. you do get some kind of headline

or reduction of u.s. sanctions. you get more constraints on domestic democracy and you see a sharper selloff. biggie for joining us today. great to have you with us. andrew from morgan stanley stays with us. we will bring you some of the stock movers this morning, including unilever. looking at their sales boosted quarter. this is bloomberg. ♪

economics, finance politics. this is bloomberg surveillance in london. we have your stock movers. >> let's start with unilever to the upside. they said they are on track for the 2020 target. to the downside, even though earnings on the came in line with somewhat stronger. do was just in line and the bar with set so high. fore is relentless demand the product. citigroup said they do not think there would be enough earnings momentum. this is after a report in

managers magazine that their profit warning seems to be eroding some of the confidence for ben and carlisle to make a bed. nejra: thank you so much, great work. let's get final thoughts from it are from morgan stanley. let's stick with equity markets and ask you the underlying question of the day. what will eventually derail the 2019 equity rally? there are a couple of things that we look at a bit newer term. the first is earnings season. the u.s. market is outperforming and the heaviest. the first half of it is more heavily skewed towards value, towards banks. and 20 a lot of sectors where people are not that heavily positioned. the early numbers in the early -- earnings season has been fine but where the rubber meets the road is going to happen at the of of the month and a couple

weeks. it might tell us more about how good or bad these earnings actually are. if you think about the reasons that the fed caused in december, there is broad agreement in january that they were right to deposit. they cited government shutdown uncertainty, they cited weak growth. they cited global growth weakness. the government is reopened, the china trade deal looks like it is close. it is growing above trend in the first quarter. the fed might shift its focus because the reason we're pausing is because of inflation. i think when you talk to investors about how they feel that the market, a lot of story is now around positioning. it is a little bit self-fulfilling. the market feels strong. people must not be involved so they must stay strong. it must be a reasonable way to

think about it but it is also a little bit self-fulfilling. starts to weaken, the justification starts to fade. do you gethow defensive and the portfolio? i know you wrote about that recently and we will discuss it next time. andrew, thank you for joining us this hour. bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour with tom keene joining us out of new york, guy johnson in london. later today, we will be speaking to ceo of blackstone group at 2 p.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪

morning, 400 pages of

words, phrases, and sentences that the political class will hang on each and every redacted word. president spent and selected nefarious russians. revenue season, should you acquire equities in the great bull market? germany and china. there is hope of a 2020 export recovery. bloomberg surveillance, live from our world headquarters in new york. i'm tom keene. with me in london is guy johnson in for francine. report play mullah in london? does anybody care? guy: no. grace the front page of the financial times but it won't go much further than that. -- on whatn what it comes out, if it is salacious or

scandalous, that might change. seeill be fascinating to how people work their way through this but i wonder if it even plays outside the beltway. audience, i global think it will be an interesting play across all of america. for our first word news, here is uma. making effortsn to ramp up his defense arsenal with a test firing of a new kind of tactical guided weapon. north korea is demanding mike pompeo be removed from direct nuclear negotiations. he is accused of making reckless remarks. the u.s. and china hoping to reach a trade deal early in may. burke has learned that the plan calls for president trump and china's xi jinping to sign an agreement later in the month. the world's two biggest economies are trying to end a nine-month trade war.

treasury secretary steven mnuchin says negotiations are in the final stages. more economic misery for the euro area. weakness has spilled over into services. the index unexpectedly falling next month. output shrank for a third month in a row. it is hailed as a medical breakthrough. researchers have used an experimental gene therapy to cure eight infants with so-called bubble boy disease. deficiency that i want time, children that contracted the disease were kept in total isolation. biopharmaceutical company. global news 24 hours a day on-air and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom, back to you. data, equities,

bonds, currencies, commodities. i want to get to the dynamics as well. , 112.60.weaker next screen as we look at the 11 handle up to 12.9. sterling a little bit weaker. the turkish lira bears witness here. some real questions about the reserves, and the lira continues to guy: unravel. guy:-- to unravel. guy: and we have the ongoing spat of who is going to be the mayor of istanbul. and we have weak german pmi data coming out, below expectations. the market has taken at reasonably hard this morning. we do have decent data coming out when it comes to u.k. retail sales. but expectations when it comes , they are so high that

they can't get over the bar. we have still see solid -- seem solid numbers. nestle and you ever posting these numbers today. try to move the needle on gucci's revenue. i had a question on gold last night. let me go to this inflation-adjusted gold. a huge spike of long-term deflation. bank, thee world first one to give me this chart. how do we go with the great china boom and we have moved into this range here? i don't know. i wanted to bring this up because david malpass was decades out front on the idea of gold breaking out of the three decade disinflation. guy: disinflation certainly a theme that has been talked about a great deal over here right now, tom. the data out of europe not

exactly great once again. thathere is speculation the u.s. and china are close to a trade deal. people are checking their diaries for face-to-face talks. trade talks between the world's two biggest economies has been going on for nine months. and european talks could be fascinating. the european economy not exactly in a great place right now. it needs china to get it in gear. afx and of ce in the rate strategy. you get that on a business card. and peter dixon from commerzbank. me start with you first of all. we have seen really week data out of the eurozone want again. german manufacturing kind of highlighting that once again, below expectations. signs of stabilization. is that china or do we have to

wait for that until later? peter: we have a long time to wait for that. we don't even know what that will be like. it will take another six months before we see things stabilizing. i was rather surprised at the extent to which we found the cliff. the direct response of the chinese economy, obviously the export sector appears to be highly exposed. that will be the extent of the slowdown and other factors in play as well. we don't want anything to go wrong in the u.s. either. guy: let me talk to you about feedback loops. europe is struggling at the moment. it is coming out of china but ripples across the whole asian economy. interact?se factors how does the relationship work?

>> it is part of the supply chain. is not always central in southeast asia. in in general realizes on china for both commodities and the base. there is the oil base, the copper base, and we continue with the view that the multiplier will not be the same as in 2015 or 2016. there is a lot of uncertainty to the shape of chinese stimulus. september last year, it is consumption-based. it is not infrastructure led. when it a huge question comes to one multiplier. people love chinese equities now. performersf the main

in the world now, but how is that translating 2:00 p.m. strength. there is huge uncertainty around that. e.m. strength.to there is huge uncertainty around that. one of the buzzwords is pretty much revising revision downward for global growth. important this is so what you bring up about the china effect on him -- e.m. important election right now. it does china affect indonesia in 2020? is it anywhere similar to where it was in 2010? luis: the answer is definitely no. we believe that the chinese stimulus is not affecting or bringing up flows across asia

with the same intensity. it goes to the channels of commodities. you mentioned western europe and .e look into korea we're not talking about a month or two of stimulus. was auguste we had and september of last year. it has been a long year of taxes and direct taxes. does that mean we have to be bearish e.m.? no. let's come back. we have a lot to talk about and i want to talk to peter dixon about the challenges of germany as well. coming up, a more than timely conversation. mr. schwartzman of the new york public library, mr. schwartzman

of blackstone group. look for that in the 8 a.m. our. -- hours. this is bloomberg. ♪

uma: this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get to bloomberg business flash. pinterest raising $1.4 billion in an ipo. the digital bulletin board selling shares above market price. trading resumes today on the new york stock exchange. at $12.7interest billion. nestle report of strongest start since 2016. revenue climbing is better than expected. 3.4% in the first quarter. price rising for the most in 10 quarters. on highern passing

raw materials cost. six of the largest u.s. banks and never had a female ceo and jpmorgan could be the first when jamie dimon eventually steps down. the bank naming jennifer chief financial officer who has been running the car services division. overurrent ceo will take the consumer banking business. leverageving higher which could lead to one being named ceo. that is the bloomberg business flash right now. what is so important to me is the health of mr. dimon. he was quite sick a few years , recovering from a form of cancer. but his quote that he is here five years or more gives them time to do it few people do which is lineup the ducks and

get it in order. guy: and get the list as well which is what other -- a few other u.s. institutions are doing. verys potentially three senior women at jpmorgan to potentially fill his shoes. it is not guaranteed but he can say his legacy was that he put those into place. i would have thought, given the dearth of female talent at other u.s. banks, that you will see plenty of headhunters beating their way to these three women's door. -- you is doing again see time after time, jpmorgan staffing senior positions at other u.s. and international banks. survey shows the u.s. economy grew at a slight to moderate pace in march and early this month. for the latestl batch of corporate earnings and

did little to boost confidence. told bloomberg that it may require some creative thinking. >> what you really like to do is have some way on the variety of different models and somehow make those decisions to process. it is a long-winded way of saying that there is some groupthink at the fed. so it helps to get some interjections. peter, the u.s. economy is in ok shape right now. all the fed has to do is sit and wait to see how the story develops. understand the late cycle because how long could it potentially be? i think if we go to july, the u.s. will have posted the longest ever cycle in history. when the cycle starts to get

lengthy, people start to think and differents ways. don't forget that the fed has raised interest rates quite aggressively over the last couple of years. and that, in turn, will probably have some form of impact on the economy. tom: a lot of people talk about the euro being a coiled spring. recently week. data globally seems to be weak. the u.s. continues to be a main driver. why would i sell the dollar? luis: i agree with you. if you look at data distortion, we have very accurate models. land, etc. -- euroland, etc.

depending on how you dissect the data, the signal is not that strong anymore. we had a very nice dovish post coming from the fed. and do think that we still are seeing the residual effects of the dollar surprise up till now. you will go along the euro. and to start with the bank account. not only do we reset the summer, but what are we hearing about hope? what is the hope meter this morning on a recovery in europe. how do you define that? looking -- peter:

we're looking at the economy to grow at its current pace. there is a lot of expectation. years abouted for germany, for example. chinese economy has been the worst of all developed economy and many emerging economies. it comes down to this idea that we need reform. labor markets. the digital data infrastructure lags the rest of the world. that is being polite. coming up later today, the

pinterest ceo. the conversation at 11:30 a.m. in new york and 4:30 p.m. in london. timing today.ller we will see what happens. ♪

president trump: there was no collusion. there was no nothing. it is a disgrace that they continue. you don't impeach people when they are doing a good job. and you don't impeach people when there was no collusion because there was no collusion.

not only do i not work for russia but it's a disgrace. -- disgrace that you even ask the question. no collusion. there is no collusion. there hasn't been collusion. it is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on this country. believe we have shifted from the nine hour to the 10 hour wall street time where we get first discussion and then glances of the report. right now, martin schenker our chief content officer at the london desk this morning. the thing drops on your desk, what is the first thing you will look for? the extent of the reductions. there will be significant reductions. will it allow us to understand things we did not before? it will be the first obvious thing that we will be parsing. tom: for the global audience, it

is extraordinary the polarity of opinion on this. nice process of the escape from collusion hell. the presidency is never a threat to democracy. it remains a daily violation of etiquette rather than fight trumpism on the popular -- policy and political merits, the opposition but on the longshot of robert mueller proving the oval office violator has been in vladimir putin's pocket. the link is really tenuous, isn't it? marty: we know a lot about the context between the trump campaign and russian operatives as the reports have come out. and the fact that there is no

direct evidence of collusion. this report may give us more information on the contacts and the content of those exchanges. that will provide the whole issue of whether or not the trump campaign was essentially duped by russian agents that serve their interests. guy: i'm curious about this 9:30 a.m. eastern press conference the attorney general will be holding. general'she attorney job description to be a blocker for the president? of people would remember elliot richardson was not that for nixon. and he is getting criticism from adam schiff. the most important thing is that the report will have not been released when he holds this press conference. so you will have a room full of journalists that will not have read the contents of the report when william barr is giving his

press conference. so that will be a kind of extraordinary moment. tom: marty schenker, our chief content officer. we will continue our market discussion with peter diction and luis acosta. let me tell you about the event this morning. the attorney general of the united states in a press conference. that alone is odd. the 9:30 a.m. our is the schedule on that right now. we stay with us worldwide. from london and from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ so with xfinity mobile

i can customize each line for each family member? yup. and since it comes with your internet, you can switch wireless carriers, and save hundreds of dollars a year. are you pullin' my leg? nope. you sure you're not pullin' my leg? i think it's your dog. oh it's him. good call. get the data options you need and still save hundreds of dollars... do you guys sell other dogs?

now that's simple, easy, awesome. customize each line by paying for data by the gig or get unlimited. and now get $100 back when you buy a new lg. click, call, or visit a store today. ♪ london, tomnson in keene in new york. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. uma: the public is

likely to learn more on what robert mueller found out about links between trump and the russia dutch drum campaign and russia. attorney general william barr is holding a news conference before sending the report to congress, but democrats are crying foul, saying it gives him a chance to spend the content -- being the content -- spin the content. rick perry is finalizing terms and timing of his departure which is now seen as imminent. he once ran for the republican nomination for president. consumers in the u.k. are brushing aside turmoil over brexit. retail sales are unexpectedly up for the third month in a row,

rising 1.1%. record employment and rising income is helping to underpin consumer spending. venezuela has won the title of the world's most miserable economy. for the 50 year in a row, topping the bloomberg misery index which looks at inflation and unemployment outlooks. is going to hit 8,000,000% this year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am uma pemmaraju. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. "surveillance," we like to take two really smart people.

we are going to turn you guys into security analysts. tell meomics textbooks that revenues and companies are directly linked to nominal gdp. is that true? peter: it is not an unreasonable assumption. i think there are lots of other things happening at the moment because we are not entirely sure exactly whether we are measuring gdp correctly. problems,e of the particularly as the online economy becomes more important. generally speaking, revenues are still broadly correct. cfos includingo the newly minted cfo at jp are partitioned into a domestic part of the

equation and the international trade china part of the equation. can we do earnings analysis given that great present partition? peter: it makes things a little bit more difficult, but what i increasingly do these days is look at a company, which part is coming from the domestic economy and which part from the national side? if you do that, the ftse 100, of example, 70% to 80% revenues come from outside the u.k. it is clearly a big disconnect between what is going on in the u.k. and elsewhere. the consequences are things like the ftse index become more sensitive. when you start to look at a wider index, a broader index, you can start to see a much broader correlation with gdp than looking at the headline indicators. guy: let's talk about some of

the biggest companies out there. we have pepsi numbers, unilever, nestle. these are companies with huge global footprints. nestle is huge in china. they have the ability at the moment to raise prices in a way they have struggled to as of late. is that because of the global consumer, the emerging market consumer has more money to spend? luis: we had a little bit of building of savings in em over the past few years. in's not forget that back 2014, 2015, and 2016, most of these have to restructure. my statements also go to luxury brands. they had to restructure the asian business massively. you can now say that generally speaking, the global footprint

at this point is money is in a much better place. on the revenue side, that is method there is no pressure on the revenue side. they have been able to pass something through to the final consumer. guy: people talk about the fact that you look at portfolios in the united states and europe, most of them are underweight asia. they certainly do not have a big china component relative to the size of the economy that exists. if you take a look at l'oreal, they had numbers out earlier. asia is a bigger market than europe. nestle, unilever, massive footprint. how easy is it to get an understanding, if i am a portfolio manager looking at my pension, how much exposure i have two asia and the growth engine?

should i be buying more nestle, unilever, or more tencent? luis: i think it all boils down to the china factor. china is going on a structural gap. there are different variables but one of the factors is the chinese are traveling abroad more and more. that puts pressure on the balance of payments. there is a social contract in there. i do not think the ability or available income to chinese people will go to a break. it is a lot more consumer oriented than investment. there is no interest whatsoever to break the social contract now, so it is working fantastic. factor will continue to be an investable theme.

the answer to your question, yes, especially companies the good understanding of the chinese footprint, good penetration in this market. understanding the channels all the way to western europe, these companies could be well positioned. seems to haventry 4, 5, 6 dominant countries -- companies that are family-owned. they must have sophisticated hedging. what is their dollar belief as a general statement? luis: on the corporate sector, i have to say that the dollar belief has been very shaken for the past many years. intois translating institutional investor sentiment. a lot of markets in the past couple of months, and talking to corporate's in emerging markets,

allocatorsg asset who give money to the investors to invest in em, there is a lot of agnostic sentiment with respect to em effects. -- em fx. tom: let's bring this back to europe. the corporations in europe have to adapt and adjust to a dollar. how do you see them playing this to provide stability to their revenue growth? peter: the general view and europe -- maybe this is complacent -- there is not a huge amount of movement expected in the exchange rate, so they particularlygainst stronger dollar, funny enough, which they might want to rethink in the course of the next few months. a little bit of hedging going on. biggern companies, the

companies are recruiting their footprint outside the dollar region with particular exposure to china. one thing they can do over the longer-term is continue to widen that footprint which will give them a broader revenue base. guy: just to come back to that comment about needing to rethink that, talk me through that. speaking, the companies are positioned primarily to be one way and that is a danger that they might get called out if we are seeing the currency market decide it has taken enough in a certain direction and wants to see the dollar move in a different direction than the companies are positioned. guy: it is amazing how asleep foreign exchange markets are, the volatility story amazing. hsbc saying, we are not changing our calls because we have not been stomped out in either direction.

markets, on bloomberg kpmg's local head dutch global head of -- this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance." let's get the bloomberg business flash. alcoa is cutting its forecast for global aluminum demand this year, blaming weakness in china. they are trimming their out luke for growth. that's outlook for growth. they are posting their first quarterly loss since 2016. bloomberg learned that canada's candid t -- canopy growth is

looking to buy -- the directors include former house speaker john boehner and brian mulroney. the world's largest casino company posting better than expected earnings. -- in its biggest market, macau, rising more than theaccounting for 50% of sands resonate -- revenue last year and almost as much of its profit. tom: it is absolutely extraordinary, the numbers, the scale, the scope of the indian elections. there is no description to the reston test western world. mumbaisubramaniam is in and gets us to the end of may. the headlines are a pole official was killed, i get the

drama. explain the belief in the fairness of this election of almost a billion people. india has gone through many trials and tribulations over the last 60 to 70 years, but one thing everybody staunchly believes is the progress is -- of democracy. 900 million voters, a million polling stations, 5 million government officials overseeing elections, over 200,000 candidates, just to give a sense of the magnitude. 1600 candidates are in the fray seeking to become new members of parliament. its is important because includes areas where the prime minister's party is not very strong. , they are notte particularly strong and in the last five years, the modi government is not seen favorably

by the people of the state so it has to rely on local partners. modi's party has a local partner. the other party has a local partner that is expected to do well. the election is getting difficult to call because the , partners,cal issues these will play a huge role in deciding who the next finalist will be. tom: how does the election process compared to the times of mr. nehru and missus gandhi? harsha: it used to be less complicated. two fundamental changes have taken the place, one is this gain of -- scale of falling. backs no less complicated in their time. this is india's first social media election.

every political party has been analytics, using social media tools to reach their audience. pushes ahat constantly message on the government, the opposition does the same, but they are using facebook and twitter videos to push their agenda. this is the first social media election india has seen. guy: good morning. one of the features of this election has been a focus on cashmere. -- kashmir. how much progress can we expect once we are done? if there is one area where the modi government has not done very well, it is tackling the issue of kashmir. since the government came into the office, the problem has gotten worse. there has been cross-border

tension with pakistan around the same time. elections are not taking place in kashmir. have not been announced and the elections always have a lot of tension because of the history. it calls for local security forces to be garnered and so on. state, not like the rest of india, not like the other states where conducting elections -- and conducting elections will be a difficult exercise. hasquestion of how kashmir been viewed politically over the last 14 years, it is an integral part of democracy and that has not changed in the last five years. tom: just a terrific briefing, harsha subramaniam from mumbai on the really truly original democracy of india. coming up today, an important

conversation on the state of banks and private money in america. stephen schwarzman in the 8:00 hour, an important conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i have a plan to make sure that we make certain aspects of the bank more effective so that ultimately we do not have to keep introducing further taxes to the consumer, which adds to the burden of inflation. guy: south african leader of the opposition, speaking to nejra cehic on "daybreak" earlier. luis costa and peter dixon are still with us. it looks like he has got the election. clearly, the asc is a divided organization but looks like it will hold onto critical areas. a lot of the reform process has been delayed until after this election. it feels like he needs to get a mandate under his belt to

deliver the big reforms south africa needs. is this election going to allow him to do that? luis: i believe there will be a positive mixed signal from this election. like the polls, it looks they will be in a position to 58% to 60% of support. he is a very popular president, the most popular since mandela, so he has got the position. there is a huge differentiation between their popularity. there is the whole thing about bringing them toward a common factor, and it is a huge challenge in terms of imposing taxes and debating the fiscal. questions is how to consolidate the fiscal more aggressively and sustain emaar

morel path -- sustain a stable fiscal path forward. guy: will this give him a mandate that allows him to do with contentious issues in a way that will keep south africans on side and also keep international investors on the side? these are some contentious issues that have to be dealt with. fiscal problems are always a problem, but nevertheless, there are massive issues which international investors will be focused on, a land reform and property rights. luis: i believe they will be addressed probably after the elections. i am very cynical on how rama reform.iews of the land this is not him pushing for the land reform. pushing fornec is

the land reform and he would rather not deal with that now, but eventually we will get there . there is internal party pressure for coming to terms with that. and local cios corporates in south africa, you get the sense that this is a big issue. it is not only about the land reform and about how the government sees property rights in general. tom: i want to do a chart, which i think is a mystery for a lot of people not linked in like luis costa. turkish riau, the south african rand, and the euro normalized back six or seven years. we see dominant nation stability off of the normalization. destabilizes,rand and then there is a train wreck known as turkey. the basic theme of a lot of people is at some point, this

unravels. how do you know when and em unravels? do you meanexactly by unraveling? -- can look a lot of these at a lot of these economies and say they already have. as an international investor who does not specialize in em, perhaps i am judging them by higher standards than i should. i look at the likes of south africa and see property rights, turkey, and the clear move which extreme nationalism scares international investors. these are economies where we are not going to see in exodus overnight necessarily, unless something dramatic happens, but i think there will be a slow drift away. we are not quite at that stage, but we are getting there. what we are seeing generally as a consequence of the political environment, investors are starting to think much more

geopolitically and strategically about where they want to be. and peter dixon, thank you so much, a nice dose of em this hour. it will be fascinating to see mueller. we have the press conference coming up. underneath all this is the shock of the german gdp numbers and the pmi's, and this whole hope of an e.u. recovery. that is somewhere out there in the fourth, fifth, sixth quarter? guy: you probably could be right with your arithmetic. it is not there yet. germany is suffering. ♪ moving is hard.

no kidding. but moving your internet and tv? that's easy. easy?! easy? easy. because now xfinity lets you transfer your service online in just about a minute with a few simple steps. really? really. that was easy. yup. plus, with two-hour appointment windows, it's all on your schedule. awesome. now all you have to do is move...that thing.

[ sigh ] introducing an easier way to move with xfinity. it's just another way we're working to make your life simple, easy, awesome. go to xfinity.com/moving to get started. ♪ tom: this morning, at is 400

pages, some words, phrases, and sentences are blacked out. this morning, the mueller report on all the presidents men and select nefarious russians. revenues season, should you acquire equities amid a great bull market? within the clear and present trump and the less clear after trump, america goes in search of a foreign policy strategy. this is bloomberg "surveillance," from our world headquarters in new york. i am a non-redacted tom keene johnson.i-redacted guy i wonder in the united states how obsessed people will be. i do not understand how you can have a 9:30 a.m. eastern press

conference with journalists trying to ask questions on something they have not read. tom: only kevin cirilli will answer that question, and a moment from washington. let's get our first word news. uma: a redacted version of the report of the special counsel is set to be released today. documents may raise more questions than answers. the report is expected to provide insight into mueller's conclusions. attorney general william barr will hold that news conference later today on the report, before its release to congress. , withats are crying foul some saying the attorney general is waging a media campaign. kim jong-un is making efforts to ramp up his defense arsenal, overseeing the test firing of a new type of tactical guided

weapon. north korea is demanding secretary of state mom pot -- mike pompeo be excluded from negotiations, accused of making reckless remarks. the u.s. and china are hoping to reach a trade deal in may. the plan calls for president trump and xi jinping to sign an agreement later in the month. they are trying to end a nine-month war with treasury secretary steven mnuchin saying the negotiations are in the final stage. weakness in european manufacturing has spilled over into services. the index unexpectedly falling last month, and factory output shrinking for a third month in a row. it is being hailed as a medical breakthrough, researchers at st. jude's have used an experimental gene therapy to cure eight

infants what the so-called bubble boy disease. at one time, children were kept in total isolation. they have license the therapy to a small biopharmaceutical company called mustang. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am uma pemmaraju. this is bloomberg. equities, data, bonds, currencies, commodities, a little bit of nuance and a risk off feel. euro weaker, 1.1252. turkish lira, 5.84. turkey unraveled, the lira weaker on a log basis. sterling weaker because there is no news. guy: let's take a look at what else is going on. we saw some decent data coming out of the u.k. on retail sales. that cannot be said of germany

on manufacturing, another disappointing set of pmi's coming out. european stocks are a little bit -- nestle, unilever posting big numbers and they are both rising. the owner of gucci under a little bit of pressure. gucci numbers are pretty good. the problem is the bar has been set so high. tom: let us continue, and what we need to do with the mueller madness today, let us listen to president trump. >> there was no collusion. there was no nothing. it's a disgrace frankly that they continue. you don't impeach people when they are doing a good job and you don't impeach people when there is no collusion. not only did i never work for russia, it is strange that you ask that question because it is a whole big fat hoax. one thing that was proven today,

no collusion, there is no collusion. there has not been collusion. everybody knows it is a hoax, one of the greatest hoaxes perpetrated on this country. tom: we need to go to kevin cirilli, but we need to know that there is complete fixation .n this inside the beltway blah,from the usual blah, how will prosecutors use this report? kevin: on the house of representatives where democrats control and have been looking into investigations, several committees have issued subpoenas to deutsche bank. they will be seeing whether there are financial institutions named in this report such as deutsche bank. note that in dni reports of yesteryear, big tech institutions were named. view isom-line, topline

that democrats will be looking to see precisely why the president was not charged with obstruction of justice, and republicans are looking to turn the page. in terms of a procedural standpoint, and about three hours attorney general william barr and rod rosenstein will have a press conference at about 9:30 a.m. eastern time where they will take questions. we do not know precisely when the redacted version of the mueller report will be released. it will be redacted. .t is a 400 page report the reductions will be color-coded and the special counsel will say why they are redacted. tom: they are going to redact classified cereal and anything having to do with the grand jury. material andsified anything having to do with the grand jury. kevin: the democrats are fully

prepared to potentially file lawsuits to try to get unredacted versions. in the coming weeks, we will be hearing from attorney general william barr testifying again on may 2 in congress, but special counsel bob mueller has increasing bipartisan calls for him to testify as well. congress is in recess and lawmakers will receive a less redacted version than the redacted version that will be released. that will prevent even more politics surrounding this. guy: you spent a lot of time at the white house. what is the sense among journalists at the white house in the next and crannies of the press area about how on earth they answer questions when they have been not -- ask questions when they have not been given the report. kevin: washington is weighted on bated breath as it wakes up to an investigation 22 months, 2900

subpoenas, and has in the talk of the town for more than two years. from the press perspective, everyone like the rest of the country is waiting for this. white house administration officials are out in full force. they want to turn the page on this, that there was no obstruction or evidence of collusion, and they are ready to go. tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so much. a lot of people saying mr. mcgann's name will be a word search. we do this every month. it sounds like a broken record. it is a circular thing that used to break and your parents would not let you buy another one. this is a require read -- required read. mr. rose outdoes himself. i hate him. this will take up my entire

weekend, searching for a strategy, it is absolutely brilliant. i want to take you to the strategy of a washington fixated on mr. mueller. how are we supposed to be doing anything if we are fixated on a 400 page redacted version? guy: basically, we are withdrawing from the role of global leadership. we are withdrawing and that will ultimately fray the stability and security of the world order. as we are focused on our own domestic circuses and soap operas, the rest of the world goes on about its pace and basically says, thank you very much for u.s. hegemony. we will take over. guy: has the trump administration done u.s. foreign policy a few favors?

it has pointed out glaring errors that have existed -- iraq, afghanistan, there are things that have gone wrong and the trump administration has pointed those out. once we get beyond the trump era, well that change -- will that change in the nature of foreign policy have a positive effect? gideon: in foreign policy, there are many wrong answers and just saying the course you followed was wrong, here's my new course, does not make the new course right. often it is a course even worse than the one in the first place. we don'tchallenge is, really have a foreign policy that is sustainable now. the president does not believe in the country's foreign policy but he is in charge. the united states is dead in the water like a giant cruise ship. no one knows what will happen next.

the person who wins the 2020 election will determine the future of american foreign-policy. thep will have killed off old american foreign-policy and the next one will be determined by the next person who wins. tom: for those of you in economics, the level of gideon rose cynicism holds. only gideon rose with the cynicism. we will continue. michael shaoul patiently waiting to talk about his wheelhouse, your courage to be in the markets. we have got much more coming up. hour,00 hour, the 10:00 the press conference, the attorney general of the united states on the mueller report. the nation, the beltway -- maybe the northwest quadrant -- will stop. this is bloomberg.

♪

♪ if you really -- what we would like to do is have a variety of different models that could be true and different decisions across those possible models. that is one way of saying there is some movement at the fed. injection. get some guy: mr. bullard speaking about monetary policy, guy johnson in london, tom in keene in new york. francine lacqua redacted today. gideon rose joining us in new

shall.nd michael i want to get a sense of the u.s. economy. the economy in europe looks like it is going nowhere in a hurry and we look across the atlantic and the economy looks like it is doing reasonably well. does the fed need to sit on its hands? michael: i think it is. data sincec december, there is some weakness. each piece of weak data has been followed up by stronger data. the economy is pretty much where it was six months ago and with the exception of housing, it looks a little better. guy: did the fed raise rates to quickly? michael: i think the fed was justified in making its moves. there is an old saying, three

steps and a stumble for the third. they got a little more than three steps in place. they got to a point that financial markets started to become nervous, but there is no sign the fed did damage. tom: the mother of all recoveries, the most unloved recovery ever. what do you do now? what is the strategy for people a little bit behind or people like me in all cash? michael: the u.s. market in particular prices in a lot of good corporate performance going forward. whileare some signs that the overall market is making progress, you have a violent rotation out of the defensive equities. health care is completely down. we need a really good earnings season to justify where the s&p is versus the rest of the world.

guy johnson, you love the german story within this foreign affairs magazine. germany is flat on its back, right? michael: as an economy? tom: i am asking. it is japan like. michael: it has had a lousy 12 months but a reasonable recovery. germany has transitioned to being the dominant european economy over the last 20 years. the problem is that europe has lost its place in the dominant confident economic space. guy: to the backend, it is basically looking at what germany -- where germany's place in europe could be going forward if some of the constructs and the architecture that has been built up starts to fall away, and what could potentially be a spark for that?

you take a look at the relations between the french and the germans, that is starting to produce tensions. if there is another economic crisis in europe, will germany be signing the check? the germany moment is bumping along, not doing great. manufacturing is suffering because of china, domestic stuff looks all right. ready for another economic crisis in europe? is germany ready to sign the checks? gideon: the answer is no. they probably will be annoyed if they have to. the question becomes, why should they have to? the really interesting question is, if the united states withdraws from the world, what do the other powers do? michael talked about the assumptions built into the economy. everyone is building into their forecasts of the world economy a

stability that comes from the united states run by technocrats doing generally the right thing for global peace and security. that has not been true the last couple of years and will not be true for the next couple of years, and do not know if it will be true in the future. the damage to germany's position and the u.s. position, when we withdraw, what does germany do? protect itself? itself?an protect the trump administration is deliberately and aggressively trying to undermine central-bank independence with its appointments. if that happens, why should other countries be comfortable in u.s. management of the global economy if it is clear that fed policy will be driven by the political interests of the administration? guy: gideon will stay with us, michael will stay with us. schwarzman,teve

8:00 a.m. in new york, 1:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: bloomberg "surveillance," guy johnson in london. francine redacted today. let's have some fun. gideon rose with us and michael shaoul. we are thrilled to have with us karen ubelhart who is knee-deep in industrial america.

21, ge we will not even look at. this is the ancient industrial history of those retired. all new management is coming in to salvage honeywell -- not salvage, but move honeywell forward, and salvage general electric as well. tell us about the new guy at honeywell. karen: a lot will stay the same. he sticks to margins. he got things going to be a profitable country does company. growth.cused on he is looking for deals, cannot find them because they are really expensive, but he wants to buy. tom: organic revenue growth of 5.2%, a snapping number for a potato chip company, amazon with ginormous growth as

well. karen: outside the u.s., the industrial is slowing. under that 3% would get people concerned. i think they will be in their range. they are usually the one that beats a little, it raises a little, so that is required because they have done that for a long time. the what is the exposure to 737 max program? karen: that will be a topic of discussion. they do some power and flight controls. aerospace is so robust i do not think it will be a problem, but it will be a discussion. no one has cut production. the suppliers are still not cutting, but how long cannot go on? guy: this is a long cycle business. in terms of how easy is it to read the macro global slowdown

story into the numbers, where do we start showing up? karen: people will look at traffic numbers, capacity numbers. there is some concern global capacity has grown too fast in the airline space. you can look at double growth for all providers. you will see it in the parts business. tom: this has been great. thanks for the update as we look forward to honeywell earnings. i cannot say enough about the starkness of two paths in industrial america. this is bloomberg. ♪

so with xfinity mobile i can customize each line for each family member? yup. and since it comes with your internet, you can switch wireless carriers, and save hundreds of dollars a year. are you pullin' my leg? nope. you sure you're not pullin' my leg? i think it's your dog. oh it's him. good call. get the data options you need and still save hundreds of dollars... do you guys sell other dogs? now that's simple, easy, awesome. customize each line by paying for data by the gig or get unlimited. and now get $100 back when you buy a new lg. click, call, or visit a store today. ♪ room,here is the lincoln the green room, and the redacted room, no doubt reading a report

at the white house. we will have the mueller report later this morning. kevin cirilli and our team in washington, we are ready to have multiple people dive into it and traipse through 400 plus pages. right now, guy johnson and tom keene, let's get to our first word news. to: the public is likely learn more on what special counsel robert mueller found out about links between russia and the trump campaign. a redacted version of his report will be released today. attorney general william barr is holding a news conference before sending the report to congress, the democrats saying it gives him a chance to spin the contents before the public reads it. another member of the trump cabinet is getting ready to leave. energy secretary rick perry is

finalizing the terms and timing of his departure. he once ran for the republican nomination for president. consumers in the u.k. brushing aside turmoil over brexit, retail sales unexpectedly growing, up in march for the third month in a row. rising 1.1%, record unemployment and rising income are helping underpin consumer spending. venezuela again winning the title of the world's most miserable economy. ,or the fifth year in a row they are topping the bloomberg misery index which looks at inflation and unemployment outlooks. inflation is projected to hit 8,000,000% this year. at the other end of the scale are thailand, singapore, and japan. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am a pam arad you. -- i am uma pemmaraju.

tom: honeywell out, plus, plus, plus. i want to bring out how they release their earnings, which is michael shaoul knows, is how they do that. you clean up the garbage using accounting principles. the conversion factor on cash flow, they show operating margin .p 150 organic sales up 8%, nicely above domino knee-deep -- nominal gdp. that is a nice number. michael: it is like a retail company putting out same-store sales. the same business this year versus last year has grown 8%. it certainly is a good headline. tom: well done, certainly is a good headline. you cannot compare sector to sector. pepsi up 5% is not the same as

comparing honeywell up 8%. i love your question on boeing to karen. guy: i think they make the computers with the signal for thiscas system goes into angle of attack issue. the stock, i am looking at the overnight on the bloomberg, not rising much overnight but we get a little bit of volume on honeywell. presumably, everybody waiting for the numbers to drop. emerging markets, if you are honeywell it is a big part of the universe. south africa holding elections in less than three weeks. bloomberg spoke exclusively to the leader of the biggest opposition party who plans to sell off state owned companies. >> i would force eight

investment. ship.an archaic owner more than anything, we can allow for international partners to aggress in a much more aggressive manner in state owned enterprises. this is outside gideon rose's expertise, which means it is perfect for gedeon. prepare bank said to plan b if commerzbank talks fail. this is a very important headline as ing and unicredit are there. i put it out on twitter earlier with a terrific some of all of the players, including bnp paribas. what is your thoughts as we await the story to come out? gideon: i don't know whether -- guy: i don't know whether this is an indication the talks are not going well. presumably, there must be a plan b.

wondering what i plan b looks like, is it the same as the bank has been dealing with, a merger with somebody else? the point is an interesting one -- why can't europe get its act together when it comes to making progress with key areas like a banking union, a structural capital markets union? -- andeurope failing germany is at the heart of this -- why are we failing not to get a grip on some of these key issues? banking is so important yet we cannot get our arms around facing them. gideon: cooperation is difficult. we cannot get along within the united states and europe is having problems cooperating countries.

the basic problem is coordination of multiple different entities in a game that is a positive sum game if you play it well together, but can devolve into a competitive zero-sum game. the big picture is europe has done well when the united states provided an overarching blanket of stability for the world and allowed it to happen. without the u.s. doing that, the europeans start to squabble. when they are left to handle their own affairs, we know what happens. it is called world wars. it has happened twice and it will happen again if we do not provide security. tom: i want to go to robert kagan's piece out of brookings. if we are in search of a new liberal order in europe, is that your opportunity to acquire e.u. banking assets? to thearo has commitment e.u. banking model with

addictive dividends. can you participate? michael: it has been a terrible place to be. a client asked me about the european banks yesterday. they may have bottomed. it is a difficult industry with a lot of structural headwinds, a central bank committed to negative interest rates which everyone understands does not help. i guess if you like clipping coupons, i don't think they are dangerous. tom: this goes back to richard haass' theory, if you do not have your act together at home it is difficult to project foreign policy. we can state unequivocally that europe does not have its act together. do they have a foreign policy or a selection of photo opportunities? michael: i do not think any of them have a particularly interesting foreign policy. tom: it is not just trump. michael: the united kingdom

removed itself from global the united gideon: kingdom removed itself from global politics like the united states. others are trying to make headway when the western powers are abdicating leadership. what happens down the road, who knows? guy: why don't the germans spend more money? you only have to drive around germany to appreciate the autobahns have a few holes on them. you have to look at the german auto sector to see that it will need some help, some of the german universities are good but could use help. in germany, spending money seems anathema. michael: i could not agree more. any other country in germany's position would be spending a lot of money. you saw the slowdown last year by using monetary policy and changing fiscal policy.

one of the problems germany has got, it views itself as having more fiscal leadership and it is surrounded by countries that are spending money. money,ey start spending everyone will say i told you so, and everyone will start spending money. that might not be the worst outcome. gideon has talked about foreign policy. germany came out of the euro crisis with definite financial leadership and it has done nothing with that except tell people what not to do. gideon: just because you have a wrong policy, the opposite does not necessarily mean it is the right policy. a lot of people want to spend money on bad things. the key is will the german government spend money on key investment, on things that will pay returns?

what you saw in venezuela is an economy run for short-term gains and without long-term investments in making financial and economic progress. the danger in spending money is you will spend it on the wrong things, so the challenge is how do you spend money on good things that will pay returns? tom: we are blowing up the show with two important articles from the finance team on deutsche bank, commerzbank, and the u.s. -- european banking system. guy: i want to pick up on what gideon was talking about. it does not seem that hard to figure out what the germans need to spend money on. au highlighted the lack of security umbrella under the trump administration potentially coming out of washington. the numbers in the german army are frightening.

the ability to get helicopters into the air, frightening. they need to spend money, that is clear. you get into a car and drive around germany, the roads are not in great condition. when you look at ai, one of the areas you would think germany would want to proceed, germany does not have a digital economy like the united states and china. the auto sector is going through one of the biggest transitions any industry has ever had to go through, shifting from a diesel combustion engine model to electrification. that will require huge amounts of infrastructure and the german government could help out. it is not hard to figure out where they need to spend money. agree, but you could say the same thing about the united states. the question becomes in each country, how do we empower the forces that would spend money on

technocratic lay sound things rather than foibles or place to moneyblic that spend without bringing in returns? tom: william burns talks about the 2020 election, one of our great public servants in diplomacy. let's say a non-trump wins. what is their prescription to assist europe with these challenges? michael: if a democrat comes in -- gideon: if a democrat comes in, attempts to restart the liberal international order, reinvigorate with our alliances like joe biden said, and try to be nicer, but still not do that much and get involved in bad wars like iraq and afghanistan. the question will become, if the united states plays nice, well other people allow it to take its leadership back and play the saymon again, or will they

you have not understood your problems enough yet? the danger i worry about is that people do not worry enough about how much we have heard ourselves during this time out. tom: we will touch on a few of these themes. always wonderful to have them with us. there is a manner that will get in the middle of our -- matter that will get in the middle of our six hour conversation, press conference. how does an attorney general have a press conference? the attorney general will speak to the press. i believe they will not have the mueller report and their hands. the 9:00, maybe by way of the 10:00 hour, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ "surveillance,"

really interesting our, guy guyson -- interesting hour, johnson in for francine lacqua. marion lake is a different person. she is really a nerd. how did she get to jp morgan and what are they grooming her for? taylor: this is a brilliant move. the cfo, she has been running all the analyst calls. jamie dimon is calling from florida and she holds down the fort. no one questions her ability to be a keen cfo. moving her to the consumer business squashes rumors about her going to wells fargo. tom: this is about retaining people? taylor: it is also about procession planning. jp morgan is best in class, but they have been leveraging more of the consumer business and

equity and fic, and some of the businesses have been slowing down. a very smart move putting her in charge of that franchise. -- the house of representatives asked jamie the next cfo would be a woman or person of color. he basically said, the operation committee makes the decision. guy: i suspect a lot of headhunters will be beating their way to these women's doors. taylor riggs, thank you very much. let's get a bloomberg business flash update. raising 1.4st billion and its ipo, selling shares above the market range. trading begins today on the new york stock exchange.

it is valued at about $12.7 billion. alcoa cutting its forecast for global aluminum demand, blaming weakness in china. 2%oa trimming its outlook to to 3% and posted their first quarterly loss since 2016. tom: thank you so much. this is a gorgeous chart. this is textbook log convexity with michael shaoul, we are thrilled to have him here. a perfect moving average as we come down, extremely well mannered, down on turkish trade-weighted lire, and rolling over like a brick. it is one of the ugliest charts out there. what does it mean that the trade weighted lire as rushing away? michael: he is guilty of

financial competence in comp -- incompetence. that turkeys becomes like argentina, that it becomes impossible to finance its internal position. it is not quite there yet. cds in turkey is not quite as high as it was, so as bad as everything looks, you have not taken it to that level and gone into a new panic. it has been a messy country which was too good to be true for many years, and people are looking under the curtain. made -- should i bank that, but that in my pocket? how do i play the rest of the year if i have made my numbers? michael: if you are fixated on making 10% and have made it, you are justified to take nine months off. i think a lot of the global

markets, particularly the ones that got pulled into the trade dispute and the fears that china was slowing down internally, i think most markets have legs. the cyclical portion of the u.s. economy still has legs. housing in the u.s. has had a material slowdown and is having a material rebound this year. there are some risks still worth taking, but this is taking into -- turning into making the u.s. a momentum driven market. tom: michael shaoul, thank you so much for being with us. much more going on. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ "surveillance," guy johnson in london, tom keene in new york. a special moment for all of you saying, write that essay, creative writing, get it done. theof the articles is

acclaimed george packer out of stanford, both of his parents iraq war forte the so many americans, whatever their political beliefs, and is still writing about the wars in the middle east. gideon: george is one of america's greatest journalists and he has a wonderful biography of richard holbrook. tom: controversial. gideon: we have a wonderful portrait of holbrook and how he tried to tackle vietnam and afghanistan, and applied the lessons. it is about the decline of american power and what do you do if you are trapped in the cycle and your own foibles are unable to get you across? tom: what is great about packer is he writes about the pentagon like nobody else. how does the pentagon fit into the synthesis? gideon: you have these wonderful

portraits of life inside the situation. the decisions about afghanistan, holbrook is saying, i have seen this before, it is vietnam in waiting. the obama administration did not want to hear his doubts and you see him as a cassandra. the whole issue is about american power is declining, and we are not used to thinking through what that means for policy and a lot of different areas. guy: what lessons did we learn from those two periods? all of these theories we have worked with, what can we take away from that era that we can apply to the next? gideon: the take away the united states does well when it leads a team of like-minded nations to do things good for the world as

a whole. it did that for a couple of generations and things worked pretty well in the second half of the 20th century. then they got hegemony and got too big and aggressive, and it lost track. it is no longer playing as a team. , the definitive late spring read. i cannot say enough about how this issue of "foreign affairs" is unique. one of the challenge there's this morning will be to read 400 pages. we have a complete team and washington that will dive into that. the excitement of a molar report, this is bloomberg. -- mueller report, this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity watchathon week has sadly come to an end.

what, what, what! no! but don't let that stop you from watching the best shows and movies from showtime, hbo, epix... jesus, what happened? ...and more. it's just the tip of the iceberg. upgrade now to get more into what you're into.

thanks! just say "watchathon" into your x1 voice remote to upgrade and keep getting more of what you love. comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questions. to getting answers. "activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. ♪ alix: countdown to the mueller

report. attorney general william barr will release the long-awaited document. the main takeaways for the market. earnings bonanza. s&p delivering 8% sales and 15% earnings growth. numbers from oil players to consumer sales. and german manufacturing pmi disappointing, not enough to counteract the gloom. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." lots of earnings this morning. let's start with blackstone. two things here. assets under management came in under $512 billion, substantially more than thought. they had a big miss in distributive income, but that could be a matter of timing. you can see the stock in premarket has shot up about 3%. alix: in converting -- and