is the rally effect out, or will higher oil costs weigh on growth? china market confuses as to whether the government will keep stimulus on in the next quarter. and twitter out with earnings in just moments, a big week for tech, with the nasdaq 100 cinching another record high. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i'm david westin, here with alix steel, i a spate of earnings. -- amid a spate of earnings. right now, in premarket, united trading up 1%. -- alix: twitter looks at lenetize bowl -- monetizeab

users hitting a high. in terms of their revenue for the first quarter, that also beat. users beatly active as well. that stock up -- wait, down. coca-cola also beating estimates for the first quarter, reaffirming its full-year revenue growth view. coming in reaffirming the views. david: the question there is going to be profit because there's some interest costs they have and other expenses. it will be interesting to see what their profit forecast is. alix: they do see tailwinds in the second quarter, the. -- second quarter, though. coming up, we will speak to the coca-cola ceo at 10:30 a.m.

in the markets, here's where we set. markets looking for direction here. maybe earnings will provide it. maybe it has to be a china story. 2%.futures down by about euro-dollar down as well. buying in crude continuing to climb, now at a six-month high. david: now it is time for the first take. we are joined by romaine bostick and lisa abramowicz. even as i am speaking, procter & gamble is out with core eps $1.06, boosting its growth view. procter & gamble seems to have a beat as well, basically flat in the premarket. romaine, a lot of earnings.

it seems to be a continuing trend of beating on earnings-per-share after he thought there would be an earnings recession. bar,ne: it is a pretty low but we are seeing it beat right around the 70% mark. still healthy enough to keep people in check. i think the most important thing is we are not seeing a reduction in guidance across the board like some people expected. i think that is providing a little to support. david: for analysts to negative? too negative?ts lisa: i don't know. one notable feature has been pricing power. in some ways, i'm curious to dig into twitter's earnings results. the fact they coined a new term, monetizeable daily active users, they are able to sell advertising at a higher price. how much can they really base?ze their user

what you are seeing in a lot of consumer brands is they are able to pass along higher costs of material goods. alix: to that point, i want to dive into pg&e. apparently core gross margins increased six basis points. the other part was pricing benefits, which helped to offset an increase in commodity costs. in pricepoint increase points. storythis, to me, is the of this earnings season. you are seeing this again and again with consumer companies. romaine: we saw this yesterday. this starts to become an inflation story. lisa: that's the reason i like it. it goes to that broader macro theme. input costs are increasing, but companies are able to pass them along and continue gaining in sales.

romaine: you've got your next segment here. [laughter] david: our second-story story has to do with china, because we are all concerned about global gross. overnight, we heard from the politburo, a little bit off the -- a little bit opaque. should be fine tuned in a timely and preemptive way based on economic growth and changes in price situations. i wasn't smart enough to figure out what that meant, but analysts basically said that means we are going to go easy on stimulus, and markets in china reacted. lisa: they did, and you saw the major indexes selloff, but this isn't unexpected. pretty much every analyst i've spoken to has said china is not ready to unleash the bazooka. they want deleveraging, and they certainly don't want to double down on the stimulus we've seen over the past 10 years or so. the question is, how today

thread this needle -- how do they thread this needle? this is a delicate dance. how do you keep growth in a time of trade tensions while not creating some kind of perverse consequences? romaine: in fairness, they did kind of release the bazooka. the major indices are up. even hong kong got a piece of that action, up 15% to 20% across the board. i think it is the politburo's way of saying let's take your gains, but let's take it easy. no one is saying we are going to collapse. the selloff kind of moderated on tuesday. alix: it seems like the question is how much more do you get. the interpretation of the statement was that we are shifting to different sort of stimulus measures, maybe that don't have a direct impact on equity prices. lisa: but how does that factor into global growth estimates if china is willing to accept slower growth than what we have seen so far?

alix: to that point, if you to collect that oil, our third story is the move we have seen over the past days, continuing to move higher. skeptical, saying it only reflect about 500,000 barrels of oil to get off the market today because of iranian sanctions. the rhetoric today is the lack of action in the bond market we've seen. is the rally not sustainable, or are we looking at dampen growth because of the higher oil prices? rising?y are prices is because of barrels that won't be on the market, or heightened expectations for conflict in the middle east? i would say it is the latter. the reality is saudi arabia could easily offset the amount of oil that would come off the market from iran, and russia is already ready to do that. there is a capacity to produce more.

i think that there is a question of conflict in the middle east. that is sort of the issue. from an inflation standpoint, yesterday you did see a lift to bond yields. today you have this post-poll. pull.-- this push- when you have oil prices affecting it, if there is a slower global growth with china pulling back, what does that backdrop say. up a littlees went bit, 1.3% on the five-year. the market is not reacting too much to this. i do a gray that the real test into it -- i do agree that the real test in terms of prices will be more about the politics and pencil security issues going on -- and potential security issues going on. alix: i don't know. i am skeptical because it is sort of a mismatch. the more you pump from saudi arabia, the less you have in

capacity, so there is a cost, but the market is clearly pushing it back on the curve. romaine bostick and lisa abramowicz, thank you so much. coming up, we continue the conversation on oil inflation. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." twitter topping first quarter sales projections. the changes to its social media services are drawing a wider audience of consumers and advertisers.

daily active users climbed to 134 million. sales at hasbro show recovery from the collapse of retailer toys "r" us. hasbro reporting an unexpected again in first quarter sales -- unexpected gain in first quarter sales, the first in six quarters. united technologies posting first quarter revenue that beat , also forecast adjusted earnings for the full year. the guidance midpoint beating estimates. that is your bloomberg business flash. david: thanks so much. every month, we eagerly await the fed's take on the economy. many have thought the government has the inside track on getting it right. in a new note, goldman sachs increasingly finds outside forecasters are closing that gap. "the fed's outperformance relative to consensus has declined over time. even the inflation record is mixed." take us through this. why is it, if this is the case

-- and you do and i'll it -- you ,o a lot of analysis to show it why? guest: historically, outside forecasters have had a pretty bad track record. of a relatively small number of contributors, and there were noise forecasters that were consistently off by large amounts, and that really detracted from consensus performance. data from the early 1990's has been that the fed staff outperforms systematically, and recently there's much less of a difference. david: does technology play a role? do forecasters have access to more data instantaneously so there is not a difference? jan: i think that makes sense as one potential contributor.

if you have more forecasters, .ou average out some errors one person be an wildly off on a particular theory has less weight than would otherwise. alix: does it make it appeared like the fed is reacting more to market conditions then maybe it is? jan: one implication is that when the fed lowers its view of ae economy, it may be senses dovish monetary policy signal. markets can take this more as a change in the policy outlook then something that would shift financial markets, maybe not as a sign that they have private information about the economy and we should all get a lot more bearish about what is going to happen. to me, that is the main implication. if you think, the fed looks at the same things we all look at, and we are all in a similar position in terms of probability

of getting it right. if they get more dovish, we should actually respond to that policy signal as opposed to get really nervous about something that we didn't know yet. david: how does this read against what happened last december, where many people think there was a 180 in the fed attitude? did they change their views on what the data was showing, and what did forecasters say at the time? jan: everybody was revising down at the time. traders probably more quickly than economists. the reason why there was such a negative reaction at the december fomc meeting is that the fed didn't move down quite as quickly in terms of their assessment of what kind of policy was needed as markets thought was necessary, and subsequently, in the weeks after, the fed made a much more aggressive shift, which then was taken positively. eventually, markets recognized that things have slowed a lot,

and have therefore move their view. alix: if data dependent means we are all looking at the same information, how do you look at something like the reflation we seen in oil? if we take a look at oil versus five-year breakevens in the terminal, we know the story. they tend to drag each other. what does that wind-up meaning for the fed? jan: oil prices are always complicated because they have opposite effects on inflation and activity. in the short term, of course, it is inflationary if you look at the headline indices, and maybe a little bit on the core. but oil prices also tend to have a negative impact on activity. on net, i think that is probably still true, even with the rise of shale, which continues to dampen activity in the longer term and take away some of that initial inflation. it is always difficult to know how the bond market should respond to oil prices, and there's no real consistency. david: how should the bond

market respond to china? we had this announcement overnight for the politburo, which is a little subtle. basically the quote was "monetary policy needs to be neither too tight or too loose, and be refined based on economic growth and changing situations." basically, analysts are saying they are going to back off the stimulus a little bit. does this seem right to you? becausedoes seem right, they have wanted to stimulate the economy, -- to stabilize the economy, and that has happened. the high-frequency numbers in china late last year, it has been running 7% to 8% in march, and looks to have accelerated pretty sharply. i don't think they want to throw the acceleration from here. while they wanted to stabilize credit growth, i don't think they want a big pop to the upside on credit. alix: how much more juice and

china add to the global economy? jan: as far as china is concerned, we are not expecting further rose from here -- further growth from here. where i think you could still get some more positive news is the spillover from china into some of the industrial economies. japan, germany have continued to lag. we would expect some of the improvement to feedthrough there. that hasn't really shown up in the numbers yet. that is something that i think could still change people's views in a somewhat more positive direction. david: how does that read back into the u.s. economy? some people have said in the second half, we will really need china stimulus to help us out because we are past the tax cuts. jan: the u.s. is not going to be

as sensitive to china activity as japan or germany because trade and industries play an important role. in the u.s., i think the reason why the second half as likely to atpretty good -- we are 2.5%, lifting a bit last week -- is that financial conditions have recently been a sizable drag. financial conditions really weighed on growth, and in my view that upsets the loss of fiscal stimulus to a significant degree. alix: in your second half forecast, you also pushed out your fed hike target to the fourth quarter of 2020. does that mean you think the fed's bar got higher, or that growth is not enough? about the really more inflation numbers, surprising on the downside consistently over the last couple of months. this came in areas that are sort of badly measured like

financial services. pcethe truth is the core inflation rate now looks like it is going to be 1.6% for the next couple of months. in our forecast, we will only get back to 2% in early 2020. that is significantly lower than where we were a few months ago, and the fed is putting more weight on realized inflation than they did. they are going through this framework review. the hurdle for delivering another hike probably won't be reached until later in the year. alix: what we've learned from some companies, like kimberly-clark passing on price increases, pg&e saying they did get 80 basis points of margin because they were able to pass on price increases, is that enough? jan: not quite enough to get us to 2% until early next year, given all the other things going on in the inflation indices. there are some fairly large weights on things like financial services.

health care inflation has been quite weak. -- that isr area another area where it is not easy. i don't think we negate the idea that there is pricing power in some parts of the economy. we have certainly seen that in the wage numbers. nevertheless, they do focus primarily on the core pce rate, and that is looking a little lower. hatzius, goldman f economist, thank you for being with us. twitter's daily active users top estimates. a privateeak with well cio. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: it's a earnings tuesday here. hasbro had a stunning fleet, earnings-per-share -- stunning $0t, earnings-per-share plus

.21. 16%,emarket, it is up recovering from the loss of toys "r" us. alix: we are noticing big moves on earnings days. we want to focus now on twitter. that stock moving higher, shares up nearly 8% in premarket. firstmpany boosting quarter monetize a bowl -- users.eable daily active with us now is christopher wolfe , private wealth cio. christopher: disruptors have an interesting place in the stock market. they get a pass from most

investors around earnings numbers because there is lots of reinvestment going on. number two, you look at the top line more than anything else. onre you are focusing users and others, we are going to look at this model of value and companies like this in a winner take all mode. that is really the challenge because they never take all. it is just how much. david: what do we need out of tech to keep this rally going? christopher: more proliferation of technology and industry. it is showing up as broad margin improvements across u.s. companies. that is a good thing. if you backed that up to the story of the beats in q1 after the government shutdown, you get this surprising effect that is very historic and protectable. ceo's be guidance by a little bit, but the biggest thing this

quarterly season is that the topline numbers are coming in pretty good, too. coca-cola was a good example of that. alix: in terms of twitter, here's a fun stat for you. the company says 38% of abusive content is being disrupted and flagged for human review, up from none last year. disruptive technology is making it into the earnings release for twitter. christopher j wolfe will be sticking with us. we will continue the earnings conversation in the u.s. upgrades outpacing downgrades. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." markets not really going anywhere. you do have the dow jones pushing a little higher this morning, s&p futures a little bit light. european stocks also lighter,

but the big rally will be with european energy. equities up over to present as oil sits on a two month high. we will be checking the twitter earnings. an emerging stronger dollar story, euro-dollar a little ,eaker, dollar-yen as well losing some steam over the last hour. million -- we get $40 billion of 2-year note coming out later. david: verizon is out, adjusting earnings-per-share of $1.20. the estimate was $1.17. the operating derivative was basically right in line with what was expected. they are raising their earnings guidance.

right now, all of their performances based on current technology. all interests are in 5g, which doesn't come out until next year. right now the current looks like it went pretty well. alix: the whole idea is that you are raising guidance. lockheed martin raising sales. was the margin so low, or was there really recovery in the second half that analysts had seen and companies are revising up? david: we talked about how far analysts took down earnings-per-share. navy it was a little bit too far, but maybe that is exactly what people wanted. as we said, earnings continuing to pour in. we will hear from almost 1/3 of the s&p during the week. for more, here is taylor riggs. taylor: twitter up about 8%, and all of the focus was on those monetizeable daily active users, just ahead of 134 million.

second quarter sales guidance was also a very key metric. it looks like that came in a little bit late, missing by about $20 million. about 33%, butup decreasesown on price on most formats. we are also getting monthly active user data. this is the first time it has been increased since the first quarter of 2018. twitter told investors this metric would likely continue to drop as they removed spam and cleared out suspicious accounts, but this is the last time we will get this number on these monthly active users. procter & gamble is interesting, looking mostly unchanged after fluctuating between gains and losses in premarket. like lockheed, they raised their full-year sales guidance and adjusted rocket committee --

adjusted productivity. organic sales growth getting a boost to a full 4%. they are stricking a similar tone to kimberly-clark. the statement from the ceo is all about price increases. positive was it helped organic sales, and proportionate growth in some of their premium priced products like todd platts -- like tide pods. david: which are not for eating. alix: that would be bad. analysts ticking down earning estimates for this quarter, something there could be more headwinds could be ahead. >> a lot of people were concerned about the first quarter. i think the bigger risk will be in the second and third quarter. we will have a bit of a tailwind in the third quarter, so if we struggle in the middle of the year, i think it is a bit shortsighted to get too focused

on what is happening in 1q. still with us, christopher wolfe of first republic private wealth management. do you agree with some of the upgrades we are seeing? think q4 was a bit of a downslope, so we will get a pop this year, but this is standard fare. you always have high expectations, and look ahead and say those were too high, so there will be some revisions. the permeation of technology into profit margins means they will stay higher longer. that is the story we've talked about for the last couple of years. that really creates a a reasonable earnings trajectory. be sustainedto even into 20 david: 20. what about the quality -- into 2020. david: what about the quality of the earnings? christopher: one of the good

signs is that the top line for what companies are reporting in the first quarter is showing some signs of organic growth. you just saw procter & gamble. it has been a while since we've seen that showed up. number two, we are starting to see reinvestment. halliburton talking about uptick in capital investment, offshore drilling equipment. those things tend to bode well for durability in terms of the profit story and the quality of upcoming cash flows. even if you are up five, that is still good. alix: i want to talk about what is in pricing. this is the s&p forward earnings estimate, the blue line -- excuse me, the white line, versus the blue line, which is forward pce ratio. how do you square that? christopher: first of all, we are in a place where operating leverage is relatively high.

companies' fixed costs are relatively low. that is the profit durability story. in terms of valuation, we are world.n the ang inflation is low. where up in a u.s. equities, given the fundamental drivers and growth numbers, are still relatively attractive. the business model is very important. it has been a while since the china growth story had a negative and cap -- negative impact. alix: citi said, "equities continue to rise despite over exuberance." fear of missing out could push

the index to or above the previous all-time high. is that what it is going to be? christopher: i think that is part of the story. we have nothing many stocks from 9000 to 3000. the earnings story is pretty good, and you don't have a lot of other choices. you end up in a place where you acknowledge that volatility is likely to be violent and episodic. wait itaited out -- you out, or using about what to do to invest and project manage risk. the flows don't necessarily tell that story yet of institutional money still on the sidelines. david: where are the bargains? christopher: europe, for sure. it has missed a bit of the rally. it is a bit of a big slow from 2018. european energy looks very

interesting. we are talking about iran sanctions and a number of things driving markets there. european banks, interestingly enough. recapitalization is more a possibility than a dream. in the u.s., the domestic story may be under pressure from higher oil and health care costs. we are more focused on some of the sectors like consumer needs. alix: this is a great chart that came out that shows earnings revisions in the u.k. versus global earnings revisions. basically, european profit outlook is beating global profit outlook. is that reflected in the 16% rally we have seen in the euro stoxx despite the bad economic data? christopher: probably not all of the way. the european bank has shifted policy a number of times. european companies have a fair bit of operating leverage. i would expect this to continue, so long as there are not

tariffs. -- i haveave to skew to ask you about volatility, because there is none to be found. how nervous does that make you as an investor? christopher: expect more episodic and violent market reactions. because machines control trading, because they trade in various lockstep ways, that is number one. number two is the business model dynamic is still alive and well. three, it is really about being much more diversified. the value of flexibility in a market like this one, being globally oriented and looking for opportunities where you can afford to look at everything from derivatives all the way to private investment, is really the key message around managing volatility. ofid: christopher j wolfe first republic private wealth management, thank you so much.

alix: we do have breaking news for saudi arabia. riyadh is going to keep their initial increase within the opec output quota, 500,000 barrels a day, and have a cautious response to u.s. reaction over iran. over the next two months they will raise to 100,000 barrels a day. david: you called it on the program earlier today. alix: i did, thank you. wereber last time, saudis burned hard because president trump gave every indication he would issue no waivers. saudi was pumped to get it out there. at the last minute, president trump put on waivers that really hurt price. very interesting develop. david: charlie brown and the football. how about that? now let's get an update on headlines outside the business world. let's turn to viviana hurtado was first word news. viviana: a national day of mourning in sri lanka.

the death toll from the easter sunday bombings has risen to at least 310. the islamic state targeted christians and foreign tourists. enter poll joining the investigation to identify possible international l joiningns -- interpo the investigation to identify possible international connections. according to "the wall street isrnal," president xi raising questions about the lack of a secession plan. neither the government nor the communist party responded to requests for comment. elizabeth moran is taking aim at one of the biggest economic burdens ash elizabeth warren -- elizabeth warren is taking aim at one the biggest on mine i -- one of thefor biggest economic burdens for many americans, student loan

debt, that would be paid off by a wealth tax. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i was with a real leader in providing affordable higher education to kids recently, and he said it thinks it is a terrible idea to make it free because then they won't value it. if you just get it for free -- and the fact is, it is going to increase their incomes is tangibly -- their income substantially. he thinks it distorts the marketplace and devalue put into education. alix: interesting. i wonder if there is a happy medium. if you want to talk about income inequality, who are the people paying that student debt? david: the other issue is return on investment. how much of that debt is going to good effect? some educations are terrific and really benefit you enormously. there are a lot of loans being made for educations that don't improve your lifestyle. alix: like my theater degree.

david: coming up, a bonus shakeup at barclays. the bank is set to cut bonuses for investment bankers, tying them to performance. more next in today's wall street beat. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." coming up in the next hour, be of a merrill lynch -- in the next hour, b of a/merrill global head of commodities research. a startup challenging starbucks aboutna plans to raise

$300 billion for an ipo. starbucks has more than 3700 outlets there. job cuts are on the way at franklin resources. it plans to cut as much is 5% of its workforce. this follows continued outflows the last five years. franklin is a holding company that operates as franklin templeton investments. a massachusetts hedge fund manager is accused of taking $570,000 from investors to buy tickets to a taylor swift concert and broadway shows. , he also to the sec launched a fraudulent securities offering. the agency once a judge to free his assets. he has not responded. that is your bloomberg business flash. david: for the record, i like taylor swift, but that is a lot

of taylor swift. $570,000? alix: they said broadway, too. "hamilton,"is a "frozen" tickets. i would make a down payment on a brownstone. david: buy a house. [laughter] david: we turn now to wall street beat. first up, what research costs under method two. research pricing in the ranges from $1600 to $1 million per client. then barclays is going to cut investment banks bonuses, according to "the financial times." third, european bank earnings are on deck as most of europe comes back from a long easter holiday weekend. investors will be watching european bank results tomorrow.

us is ouring bloomberg finance reporter. we look from asia to europe to the u.k. to the u.s. the u.s. is where you are actually paying the most for research. reporter: it is really expensive, and very interesting because this is the first time we've got a broad overview of how the region shakes out. what is interesting is we are seeing fee pressure in europe because asset managers have to justify these research costs to their clients come of the widows and orphans they represent. they are broadly pushing prices down with regards to this transparency. david: and put some pressure on some companies that historically have made money off of research. reporter: that's right. david: there's been a big shakeup at one organization. reporter: that's right. some of the senior management were concerned about the improved chick -- the encroaching influence, so they

followed one of their senior executives out the door. the question is going to be what happens when asked her sloan leaves. alix: macro strategies don't work. thed: let's go to to second-story story, and that is barclays, cutting investment bank bonuses. they are trying to help wardrmance and want to off active investors. branson once barclays to get smaller. he says they are placing too much on the investment bank, the unit with the lowest return on equity across the board, so why funnel so much money into it. david: but that goes to the

distinction that barclays is doing well and outperforming other european banks. richard branson said you can do even better because the investment bank is holding you back. lananh: exactly. he is gunning for a board seat at the may 2 investor meeting. david: there has already been a shakeup in the management. lananh: exactly. they now report directly up to the ceo. alix: if they figure they have to raise capital, sell businesses, or cut dividends, i can't imagine a bonus cut will make them go, i'm good now. david: it is also a way of saying i am paying attention. lananh: that's true. david: european bank earnings start tomorrow with credit suisse. we will take a look at some of these things. it is going to be very interesting for a lot of banks, including deutsche bank, for example. it was pretty ugly in

the u.s. in terms of the first quarter. that did not shake out well. all of the biggest u.s. banks, the investment bank and trading side of things, did very badly for the first time in the last six years. all revenues fell across u.s. investment banks. it is not a very good picture heading into earnings, and we've that 1qubs ceo warning would be the worst in a long time. david: do you think somebody is going to call for consolidation? ananh: blackstone is cutting jobs already. alix: but then you have santander, ing, all of these things lining up for commerzbank. that could permeate through all of the earnings calls. lananh: sure, but first quarter earnings a disappointment. david: thank you very much for being with us, lananh.

today the u.s. supreme court will hear the government's appeal on asking a citizenship question in the census. more on what i'm watching, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: today i'm watching the supreme court of the united states. they have oral argument starting at 10 a clock this morning, and what may be the most important case of the term. it involves the census. every 10 years, according to the constitution, we have to have a census. there is a big controversy because this year, wilbur ross at the deferment of the commerce

said i'd like to put in a question about are you a citizen or not. we can put of the actual question from the census bureau. you can say i was born in the united states, puerto rico, born abroad, u.s. citizen by naturalization, or not a u.s. citizen. you might not think that is a big deal. the census bureau people estimate they will have a 5% under count. that is to say, 5% of the people will not respond once they get that question. particularly in this day and age with immigration issues and the president, a lot of people will say i am not going to respond. alix: so 5% of the people don't respond. so what? david: what happens is that 5% is not evenly distributed. they will tend to be the underserved, minorities, and it will be a skew. aid, $880 billion of u.s. medicare that is attributed to the states according to the

census. , new york will get hit really badly. also, how many representatives you get. that is how we appropriate representatives, going on for the next 10 years. and a lot of companies do analysis half of this further on demographics. there's always some inaccuracy, but you pay professionals. what happens here, you have the secretary of commerce saying i am going to do this anyway despite what the experts say. alix: interesting. coming up, chris watling will be joining us, along with francis go blanche -- along with francisco blanche on iranian oil sanctions. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: trump plays hardball. president trump surprises the

market with a zero tolerance policy for iran. we speak to francisco blanch, bank of america merrill lynch. market confused as to whether the chinese government will keep delivering massive stimulus from the first quarter and what it means for global growth. and you've got companies from twitter to lockheed martin beating on earnings, with much of the s&p still to report this week. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this tuesday, april 23. as you said, lots of earnings. twitter with a nice beat. the president doesn't like twitter so much, it turns out, despite the fact he uses it often. he retweeted somebody else saying that he is the best thing that ever happened to twitter, but "they don't treat me very well as a republican. very discriminatory. constantly taking people off lists. may become is should regulate."

but is he wrong? if you could have monetized president trump's tweeting. david: but the claim he is aking is that there is discriminatory excluding of people. there is no evidence that that is happening. alix: they did say that like 38% of abusive content was taken off of twitter, versus non-last year. so what is abusive content? what is that wind up meeting? david: we all say abusive content should be taken down, but this is a claim that secretly they exclude some followers so you don't get to see their tweets. anyway, and the markets, twitter earnings still delivered, as well as other companies. that is helping prop up futures for the s&p, now flipping into positive territory.

ism a is still up -- fomo still alive and well. euro-dollar down by 1/10 of 1%. u.s. yields go nowhere. you've got $40 billion worth of two-year yields coming online. brent giving up most of its gains. so much for that running oil sanction pop. [laughter] david: a big story yesterday, gone already? that's interesting. at 10:00 this morning, we see new home sales data for march after disappointing existing home numbers came out yesterday. at 1:00 this afternoon, the u.s. treasury selling $40 billion in two-year notes. earnings continue throughout the day come with snap and ebay after the bell. alix: oil extending its gains -- excuse me, oil losing some of its gains. a report from bloomberg showed saudi arabia is going to be a lot more cautious when it comes to pumping more oil into the market. they want proof that you are

going to see a reduction in iranian exports. you have banks pretty much split on how the oil prices are going to rise. barclays sees significant tightening. goldman a little less constructive. joining us now is francisco blanch, bank of america merrill lynch global head of commodities. why will saudi arabia be more cautious this time around, despite the hawkish turn from the white house? francisco: i guess we have to go back to what happened in november. had asly, trump last-minute change of mind, and effectively triggered a significant selloff in the market throughout much of november and december. i think the saudi's are going to be holding tight here to see what the final outcome of this is on may 2, only a few days

away at this point, and see how those reductions in iranian exports are actually accomplished. they are going to be monitoring the situation carefully, and obviously they cannot really afford another selloff in oil prices. as well is the saudis, as abu dhabi, are going to be watching the price carefully and adding barrels as needed. i think the same thing is true for u.s. shale producers. i don't think they are going to rush to ramp up supply like last year. capital discipline is the name of the day. i would expect this rally to be more sustained. target an $82 a barrel for brent, which we've had since november of last year. , those pricesice in this quarter. we think there is a risk of a further spike into the year's end. david: the oil markets are

basically saying, show me the money. with a real curtailing of iranian exports, what will it take for the market to react? commodity markets tend to be real-time markets in the sense that they do not anticipate like an equity would. equity markets are forward-looking instruments. commodity markets are basically looking at supply and demand today. in this particular case, they are going to be quite cautious watching the reduction in a romney and exports. remember, saudi arabian partners even turkeyia or may decide they want to keep importing barrels spike the risk of u.s. sanctions. we don't know how that is going to play out. arabia has rightly said as soon as those reductions start to take place, we will be filling up those barrels for

s customers, but will wait until we have the call. alix: as we take a look at the bloomberg, this is the curve now for brent versus a month ago. we've obviously seen a huge we rating on the front end by about $10 or so. the backend hasn't really re-rated as much. is that enough being priced in? that is a great point. it is hard for the backend to move away from that range. the risk is that the front end keeps going up, and eventually, because let's say we end up losing libyan production or some other country, or maybe we have an uptick in the global economic -- becausese the

the u.s./china trade negotiations get to the right uptick in we have an global pmi's, that could start to pressure prices higher, and may be a little more difficult to stop rising prices in and accelerating economy growth environment. so far, growth has been decelerating for months now, for quarters. if we have an upturn in global growth into the end of the year, if this comes together with all of these fuel specification changes by 2020, this is the kind of risk it could create a spike into year-end. we don't think it is very likely , but something to watch carefully. oil could be a lot higher than it is today under the circumstances. alix: what is a lot higher? francisco: as high as $100 a barrel. i don't think it is a base case scenario for anyone. our base case is that we hit

$82, but there is a risk that prices keep rising because into year-end, we have this big punter fuel -- this big juncker fuel specification change -- this big bunker fuel specification change. some of the debt is not going to be used in ships anymore has to be used for power generation. in the meantime, the shipping industry is going to move to a letter fuel, which will have to be produced and refined. we will be more crude oil to create that incremental fuel. that is one big reason. as i said, the other factor is whether the cycle is picking up, and the green shoots in china and other countries we are starting to see actually materialize and lead to a stronger growth, weaker u.s. dollar environment as well. those are the kind of things we will need to see to get that spike. isid: francisco blanch

going to be staying with us. in the meantime, a lot of earnings coming out this week. 1/3 of s&p companies will be reporting. for a report card, we welcome bloomberg's taylor riggs. taylor: i will kick it off with twitter. active users is up from the fourth quarter. forwards guide and in terms of sales -- forward guidance in missing byles was about $20 million. still, shares rising by about 7% this morning. ad engagement is down about 4%, showing price decreases among most ad formats. lockheed martin up about 7%.

thank defense spending for a lot of this. production of f-35 fighter jets are helping that backlog. that backlog rose $3 billion this quarter, growing to a billion.33.5 i want to take a look at coca-cola as we have talked about the pricing pressure. shares were up almost 3%. pepsi has done a very good job of tasking those price increases, and you are seeing that as well with coca-cola this morning. about 3%ce mix grew by in the sparkling soft drink portfolio. alix: thank you so much. coming up, to stimulate or not to stimulate? that is china's dilemma. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." twitter topping first quarter sales projections and reported strong user growth. the company's changes are drawing a wider audience of consumers and advertisers. daily active users climbed from million.on to 134 shares in hasbro soaring in premarket. the toymaker posted an uninspected game in premarket sales, shoving it is recovering from the collapse of retailer toys "r" us. a 2% increase in revenue is the company's first in six quarters. united technologies raising its profit forecast for the year. the parent of pratt & whitney

sees strength in the aerospace market. the company will celebrate the elevator -- will separate the elevator and climate control businesses into separate entities. david: a lot of talk about china when it comes to global growth, but yesterday we got word from the politburo that they are letting up on the stimulus bit. "monetary policy needs to be neither too tight nor too loose, and should be fine tuned in a timely and preemptive way, based on economic growth and changes in price situations." still with us is francisco blanch of bank of america merrill lynch, and joining us is chris watling of longview economics. basically they are saying we don't need to do more stimulus. >> i think they are signaling

they done an awful lot. year,order growth year on they have been hitting the accelerator quite hard. there's no doubt that the chinese data has turned, and the cycle has clearly turned. he start market -- the stock market is on a tear. david: they've done an awful lot. is it enough to sustain global growth? christopher: i think they did enough. alix: francisco, how do you weigh in on this? china is going to be the key engine of growth. do you see that playing out? look at thef you sales of vehicles, cars, other appliances in china, it's been

pretty depressed for quite some time. stimulating the consumer through different fiscal measures i think should be quite positive for the year. in some ways, they have an opportunity to keep pushing growth higher and stimulate it where it matters most, which is for most of 2018. to me, i think the data points are coming in a little bit better. the one thing that has not really improved materially, we just have scattered data points, and that is why i think the u.s./china trade deal is so key to the outlook for the next 12 to 18 months. remember, if we get that trade deal done and that stimulates a whole bunch of commerce between china, u.s., and the rest of

asia, we will also let the german economy, which has been the weakest link in europe in the past few months. does and the question is all of this feedthrough to inflation. >> oil prices are always complicated because they have opposite effects on inflation and on activity. in the short-term, it is inflationary. maybe a little bit on the core, but oil prices also tend to have a negative impact on activity, and i think that is probably still true, even with the rise of sale, which tends to dampen activity and take away some of that initial inflation. reed in got francisco's the previous segment. but do you think about commodity prices in general? chris: there's a lovely

connection you can do between chinese inflation and 18 months for core consumer price u.s. inflation. the manufacturers of the world, eventually it feedthrough. i wouldn't worry about poor u.s. inflation for quite a while. i don't think there is any issue there whatsoever. not only the commodities story, but the tech story. i think it is tame, and the fed has been signaling it. they may even cut rates this year. david: is there a risk to downside inflation here, that there is too little inflation? that is aon't think big issue, as long as they don't go negative. 1.5% is fine. it could soften a bit, and i think the fed are teeing up for having the option to cut rates.

i think that would be great. alix: base case, really? cut rates? not base case, but it is a reasonable possibility, sure. david: at what point do we become considered about hazard? that in that situation, you will really get some more bubbles and anomaly? chris: we should be concerned about it, definitely. but the system is set up and we are in a world of continual bubbles. alix: if we do get a world where , what do you do with this inflation? francisco: if you look at the u.s. for the last 10 years,

we had this massive expansion in economy growth with very little inflation. the case we've made is that the u.s. will be exporting this expanded inflation to the world through the energy channel, for gasolinexport growth, and you name it. i think this is continued for many years to come. for global growth, the one thing that is kind of getting a little bit in the way is the foreign policy objectives of the trump administration, trying to tackle at the same time regimes like venezuela and iran within a very short timeframe. agree that we are going to have all of this energy for growth probably support economic activity in growth.

we will have cheap fuel prices -- be able to cook with david: really great to have you ofh us, francisco blanch bank of america merrill lynch. kris -- chris watling will stay with us. more next in today's bottom line. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: time now to look at three companies worth watching this morning. hasbro, the toy manufacturer, reported earnings that beat a lot. 11 loss perted $0. share, and actually gained $0.21 per share. they are up 16% in premarket. alix: that's a nice beat.

the other company i am watching is lockheed martin, also a killer quarter. they raised forecast for this year because of higher production for the f-35 fighter and a lot of arms sales, and the backlog is huge. 33 -- a one junta record $133 billion. david: those f-35's are not cheap. because company we are watching his united technologies. we turn to bloomberg opinion's brooke sutherland. brooke: it is a good day for earnings. 8% organic sales growth, excluding the impact of its rockwell collins acquisition. obviously, the biggest driver there is the aerospace business. that echoes what we saw from honeywell last week. knighted technologies has not commented on the boeing 737 max 8. we heard from ge and honeywell.

that will be top of mind for analysts once we get to that earnings call. david: who makes the engines for the 737 max 8? technologiesd sells different parts for the 737 max 8. the engine is actually made by ge. it is too hard to say. it depends on whether we see -- the responsibility here remains very unclear. i tend to think it will not fall back on then too much. alix: is organic growth of 8% a utx specific thing, or an overall commentary? brooke: i think it is really aerospace. units technologies' other

also did post growth, but not quite in the ballpark from aerospace. the big questions what they do about that breakup. they say they remain on target for those to become independent companies by mid-2020, but do they instead try to find a merger partner for one of those units. right now it seems like they are still planning on the spinoff. david: good news for aerospace. alix: and just to point out for and "starrozen 2" toys hitsode ix" october 4. i would be lying if i said i wasn't excited. coming up, we look at twitter, tesla, and lyft. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel. to a very busy earnings day with a lot of names delivering accurate coke, lockheed martin, hasbro, helping to lift the indices in the u.s.. dow jones futures up three times

-- up .3. is it fundamentals that could propel the index higher? in europe, seeing a nice move in the energy sector. part of that is to change up the board, you are seeing oil prices off the highs. saudi arabia cautious as to how much oil they will produce to make up for the loss of iranian exports. the yen hanging on to the safe haven bid. a lot of issuance in the two year. if you have the solid equity market, what will it take down? david: a big test at 1:00. to viviana hurtado with first word news. viviana: a national day of mourning in sri lanka. the death toll from the easter sunday bombings has now climbed to 310. the government says a local islamist terror group is responsible for the attack.

they targeted christians and foreign tourists. interval joining the investigation to investigate possible international connections. spacex's attempt to carry astronauts into space suffering a serious setback. its first crew capsule was destroyed by fire over the weekend. spacex was testing the dragon capsule when the accident happened. no one was hurt. last month the capsule flew to the international space station on accrual this mission. shares of coca-cola jumping, beating estimates. coat global volume rising 2% field by a 7% increase in the asia-pacific region. kirk reiterating its previous -- coke reiterating its previous guidance that earnings would be essentially flat this year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. reason whyppears the

coca-cola keep saying it will be flat is because of currency issues. the strong dollar and geopolitical issues. 2% growth, that the 7% in asia-pacific, that is a big number. alix: in terms of the margin. there was strong underlying margin expansion but that was offset by the fx headwinds. that is permeating as well. they bought costa which is not clicked in yet. alix: so much for that earnings recession. is it lobar or genuine beats? we will be speaking on bloomberg markets with the ceo of coca-cola. also one of the companies reporting first-quarter results. tech in the spotlight. taylor riggs has more. taylor: it is all in the spotlight. shares up 6% in premarket. all dailyose monetize

active users are coming in higher than estimates that about 134 million and forward guidance for the second quarter came in light by $20 million. the first quarter at engagements are up 23% on higher ad impressions and click through rates. if you come into my terminal, i want to highlight last time we will use this, monthly active users coming in at 330 million, the first increase since 2018. twitter saying this is last time they will disclose the number because they will start to decline if they remove spam and some suspicious accounts. initiatives new from the street, most coming out with a buy rating. analysts overweight. they recommend owning shares at these levels and jeffries having a buy rating, saying they have a highly focused approach and lyft can drive incremental share gains. if you come into my terminal, you will see lyft trading below the average analyst estimate. this morning you now have 13

and one sell. tesla relatively boring according to analysts. a lot of the investments they've been making are costly and you have a lot of the focus on the cost trajectory as well as the balance sheet ahead of earnings tomorrow. at loweringng in expectations for those car deliveries. david: taylor riggs, thank you so much. we welcome dan ives, wedbush securities managing director and chris watling is still with us. let's turn to you first, dan, on this question of tesla. what do they need to deliver? much in thebout how red they are in terms of profitability. we know from delivery it will be a train wreck quarter. it comes from what the loss looks like and whether trajectory looks like in terms

of profitability. do they have to raise capital. we see more than a 50% chance right now they have to raise $3 billion in capital. that is why yesterday was more of a sideshow. david: the far capital markets of city can have anything you want. will they say at this time? dan: do they rip the band-aid off and hint they will have to raise capital over the coming quarters but a lot of it comes down to guidance. do they reiterated guidance? it comes down to the profitability metrics in the second half of the year. david: beyond the second half of the year, explain what tesla would have to do to justify its price-earnings ratio. we can put up tesla, gm, ford, most of them are in the 70 range, they are at 2 -- the seven to eight range. they are at 250.

how much earnings with a have to generate to justify their stock prices. daniel: you can justify it on a pe basis. that is why many investors, especially automotive, when they look at teslas evaluation they get a heart attack. that is why you have to focus on what the demand looks like long-term in terms of europe. right now, this is what i view as a white knuckle period for tesla. tomorrow will be the most pivotal earnings we have seen out of tesla. alix: pivotal lyft for a second. the conversation between lyft and uber has been they will price compete. is there a story to be made as these companies go public they have to raise their prices? now they have to answer to the public, they have to answer in their earnings report? chris: these companies, we live in a world of cheap money companies. you do not need to make money

because there's so much liquidity. if we get into a world where money gets tighter and we head into a recession, i think there dynamics like to change and they will to start making money or consolidate or go bust. it is interesting you raised lyft and uber because it is ipo flood year. it is private equity offloading what it sees as the coming train wreck of a bear market two years out. the need to get them out the door with private equity and the public equity market. that is where the bubble is. the bubble is in private equity, that is what we need to watch. that is what is interesting about pinterest, zoom, all of them coming to the market. david: i wonder if a common theme is growth. you have to show dramatic growth. you have to invest a lot to get that growth. is there a vicious cycle you are always trying to catch up? daniel: there is. ,n terms of our view of lyft

right now profitability is the issue. autonomous, they are nowhere in terms of autonomous. investors want growth in this market. you need a path to what profitability could look like. that will be the big focus on uber. that continues to the issue for some of these ipos. when i talk to people in the auto industry, they say there will be autonomous, it will not transform. it will be electric vehicles. says if youusk don't own one of those cars you are riding a horse -- that is not it? david: there will be a time and it is nice, but electric vehicles will transform. chris: i think that is the first stage, and then autonomous coming after that. there is a lot like this until money gets tighter. i think tesla will be a case in point. it is a company -- i know there

is a lot of debates in market but it is a company that will not exist in the same form in five years. alix: fairpoint. it also brings into account, with tech sitting in a record, what you need to see for tech to deliver. you are seeing the forward ratio well above the five-year average. current tech is stocks in the s&p. the white line is the forward ratio. do you feel like investors be paying too much for growth is there is no other alternative? chris: you have to ride the trade why -- while it is moving. you have to be on the train while it is moving. it does not matter what the valuation is. whether 240 times or 170 times. who knows? it is a momentum trade and the growth has been the place to be and it will be the sectors that lead to the end of the bull market. you are right to ride it. i do not think it will be good in the next bull market. david: if you are an investor,

are you concerned with consumer basic tech or business basic tech? daniel: it is enterprise facing tech. talk about your trends, the cloud trend is the most pronounced i have seen. that is why microsoft is at an all-time high. cybersecurity, cloud, i would be more focused on enterprise rather than consumer. ipos, you see that in the the enterprise ipos. alix: if you wrap this all in a bow, what does this tell you about the u.s. economy, where you have kimberly-clark passing along price increases? chris: i think the us economy is fine. it had a bit of a growth cut this year but it will emerge from that. the fed supporting it and i look at the corporate sector and the state structure, a lot of cash coming out of that corporate sector. a bunch of companies not making any money but in the aggregate the corporate sector is cash

flow positive. some of the smaller cap companies is not amazing -- not making enough money. daniel: right now, talking to investors, growth. if you're not on the train, you're in the light -- the right lane washing the cars go past. ipos: is you think about in the 1990's in the 1980's, you had to have three years of profit before you listed. alix: now it is like if you are profit, what are you doing? [laughter] alix: a real pressure to have -- a real pleasure to have both of you here are coming up, we discussed the health care sector with record deals. that is next in follow the lead. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: -- viviana: this is bloomberg daybreak. coming up later on bloomberg markets, coca-cola ceo. this is "bloomberg daybreak." shares of coca-cola jumping. first q estimates being earnings. that was fueled by 7% increase in the asia-pacific region. coke reiterating its previous guidance that this year earnings would be flat. lockheed martin raising its profit sales forecast for the year. the world's largest defense contractor reading the benefits from a higher production of the f-35 fighter. $133rder backlog has hit billion. it is a first for disney's theme parks. disneyland requires reservations

to enter the new star wars attraction from opening day to june 23. guests at disney hotels in anaheim will be guaranteed entry. as a result, disneyland three hotels are selling out. if you want a room, it will cost you to the tune of $763 a night. that is your bloomberg business flash. david: you have to give them credit. my old. they know how to do it. alix: it was 600 something a couple weeks ago. disney and star wars. david: doing the deal with lucasfilm and sing the potential with lucas and getting george lucas to do the deal with bob iger. huge credit. then the way they package did and marketed it and created scarcity, it is impressive. alix: cool. you see the millennium falcon, it is cool. i'm excited. we should buy you a room for $363. alix: would you do that? that would be exciting.

-- $763. david: it is time for following week. today we look at medicare and health care stock. bloombergs taylor riggs is looking at performance. taylor: interesting as we take a look at the medicare for all proposal. i want to look at what is going on on a long-term basis. outperformance under president trump. a lot of these health insurers get a steady stream of revenue from privately run medicare advantage plans. these are lucrative businesses. the recent proposals of medicare for all would replace private health insurance groups with government run plans and that has led to the recent drop-offs we have seen in some of this year's prices. that means within the last month, it is a managed health care index and some of the health care providers have borne the brunt of the selling. some of these have seen spread between their prices in the average analyst price target widen to the highest level in 15 years.

last week shares of amp up and humana trading $100 below the average price target. a big selloff means in the last week some analysts are saying they are two beta. you have -- two feet up. anthemm and cigna -- -- and cigna -- they are singly stocks do not reflect long-term -- saying these stocks have now balanced risk reward profile after they were recently beaten up. alix: thanks so much. now with us on set to look at how it affects dealmaking is a bain and company partner and cohead of health care private company and corporate m&a. if we take a look at the actual political risk, what is it in the health care space? >> that is a great question. regulatory and political

uncertainty has been built into health care dealmaking for the last several years. we were talking right after the last presidential election during daybreak's about stocks that dropped 25% or 30%. if you look since then about 2016,as happened since take a stock like united, that stock has outperformed through the end of the year since last presidential election, apple and google. you have to put everything into a long-term perspective. there's a lot of consideration about what will come next, but nobody knows. savvy health care dealmakers are saying i have to in this potential scenarios. it is my dealmaking process. there are lots of other reasons to be bullish on health care. david: you have a report about m&a in the health care sector. whatever uncertainty there is is not to turn people from making deals. nirad: absolutely not. bain and company just published its m&a report.

we have found corporate m&a is at an all-time high, almost $450 billion since 2018, so is health care private equity deal making. one of the important things we found in this year's report is if you look at the last macro cycle, that is what we are concerned about, the next macro cycle, health care deals which originated during last cycle outperformed the deals and health care private equity. it was a 2.7 times return for help their versus a 1.8 times return for non-health-care deals. that is why health care investors that have a long view are so bullish on the sector, particularly where we are in our growth cycle and in an upcoming macro cycle. alix: -- david: that is the macro view of health care m&a. you deal company by company. -- which deals make more sense because of this and which make less? deals we are focused on

that are improving access or improving the cost of care. if you look at the long-term equation, things can happen in the short term from a political or macro perspective. there is one thing that is immutable. demographics will keep driving demand for health care. greater have to provide access and provide it at an efficient cost. what we see with our private equity clients is there a lot more focused on how to i make sure i can increase access at a low cost. you will see a lot of deals in service industries to the provider sector or to the pharma sector or the mid-tech sector to create that type of efficiency? alix: how much more consolidation is left? you are paying a premium but we see a ton of it. nirad: what you see of is a lot of folks not just trying to look at their core market but what ?re the adjacent markets what other moves to want to make

that might not be exactly in my vertical of health care but are in adjacent verticals that become very important. for example, you see a lot of payers moving into analytics, how can they have some hand in the provider sector? you'll see more this going on which will continue to fuel more of that deal activity. david: what about the size of the deals? there's a piece on the bloomberg that says you need more smaller midsize deals. the bread-and-butter is in the smaller ones. those are declining, more generally, not necessarily health care. those are for cash and people do not want to part with their cash. nirad: i can talk from a private equity perspective. there were large deals. this the first time we had four deals over $4 billion. what you will also see is an increase in the proportion of smaller deals happening in the market. people realize that is where they have to go. part of this is out of supply and demand necessity.

if you want to continue to do health care deals, you need to find to do and sometimes that will send you into lower check sizes to get the deals done. alix: such a great pleasure to catch up with you. lots more as we head to the 2020 election. rallying, twitter after a strong report of strong user growth. more on what i'm watching, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: here's what i'm watching. that is twitter. cohost of bloomberg markets on radio will join us now who in his previous life was deep in the weeds of twitter. one of the standouts we are seeing? >> of the quarter. they beat on revenues and eps. what investors are focusing on is the users. the company once investors to focus on daily active users or

monetize of all daily active users. those are the ones were not robots. the reason they are trying to shift the focus is because they know they cannot compete with facebook's in terms of aliens of users. have about 330 million users at this company, twitter. the issue is we are not that big but we are really engaged and they go to the advertisers and say we have engaged user base. they come every day and that is what we want to sell to advertisers. that is working. david: hasn't worked anywhere else? snap made that move. other people are saying we've made that money but we do not want to move? has it ever worked? paul: amazon and google and facebook soak up most of the digital advertising dollars. everybody else is fighting over the scraps. twitter has this message of that daily users and they are very active. if you are never ties there are two things you buy.

one is the audience and the other is engagement. how engaged is the audience? alix: talking about engagement in audience, that is president trump twitting this morning how twitter does not treat him well as a republican. it is discriminatory, we need regulations, and to offset that, do you take any of this seriously? paul: i don't think so. they are trying to make sure their platform is hospitable to users and advertisers and they say they are not biased. alix: paul sweeney, thank you so much. coming up on bloomberg -- the open with jonathan ferro, jpmorgan asset management global management cio. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪

quarterlycoming up, earnings standing between the s&p 500 and another record. twitter topping sales and daily user estimates and wall street analysts warning of tighter oil supplies after the u.s. toughens its stance on iran. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. let's get to the price action. futures positive one point on the s&p 500. in the fx market, the dollar stronger against the euro. euro-dollar rolling over to 1.1218. in the treasury market, unchanged. 2.58 on the u.s. 10 year yield. let's get to breaking news and start the show with that and crossover to kailey leinz. onley: breaking news google's drone business. it has gotten faa approval as an airline. it is the first opat