jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, u.s. gdp delivering a big upside to price, topping all forecasts. a headline flattered by an inventory boost fueling doubts the growth verse will be sustainable, providing another lift for treasuries. we begin with a big issue. united states looking like the best house on the block. >> strong growth. great economy. >> great gdp, great low inflation. >> better fundamentals. >> the underlying economy is doing well. >> the u.s. is doing relatively

well. >> it looks reasonably stable. >> the u.s. is simply in a better place. >> the economy has continued to grow. >> yes, gdp was higher, but the devil is in the details. >> you have to strip out all of the noise of trade and inventories. inventories and trade, that is not indicative of the underlying economy. >> underlying demand was weak. business investment, pce cooled. >> the u.s. economy is decelerating. >> definitely a deceleration from where we were last year. >> nowhere close to recession. jonathan: joining me around the table is matt hornbeck, greg staples, and from london, ian steely. ian, let's begin with what must be the most hated 3% read of gdp in america in recent memory. why? >> you say it is the most hated, we have stocks up, treasuries up, but everyone seems to like it on the markets side.

it is one of those, you beat expectations, but the mix of it was not great. it shows what people have been saying, we are in the slow trend-like growth environment, which is good for all assets and why all asset markets are up today. jonathan: if i said 3% on a gdp print, would you expect to see 2-year treasuries come in at five basis points? >> if you would have also told me that the core pce would be missing by a tenth, i was suggest that treasuries would be fine in that environment. >> the first print was actually higher in yields. when the market dug into it and saw the competition, they realized it was not as hot. jonathan: you see the positive contribution from trade that most people consider, the vision from inventories, which most think you give back as the year progresses, does that mean that the rest of the year will be bad? we are still around 2%. matthew: that is not a bad rate

of growth if inflation is at 2%. if your policy rate is neutral, that is not bad. the problem is inflation is missing the fed target by 50 basis points. that is the problem. jonathan: is that your point as well, as we round out the week, it is not with gdp, but with a pce and a softer inflation rate in america? iain: yes, i agree with that. if you look at what has happened over the course of the year, you see the fed pivot and now it is all about inflation. that is what fomc members will be focusing on. it will be fascinating next week to see what jerome powell has to say about that. it has come down, lower than they would like. growth looks fine, not a problem there. inflation is what is on everyone's mind right now. jonathan: consumer price tolerance looks ok as well. we have heard from several u.s. companies through the week, pepsico, coca-cola, procter and gamble, all saying they can put up prices, and they got the green light from the consumer.

they paid up and revenue growth came along. there are a few signs that things are picking up. iain: i think so. if you think about the overall market, typically q1 is not great from a gdp standpoint. from seasonals that we all know about. we also have the shut down to contend with, retail sales have picked up recently. there are some green shoots as look forward to q2. maybe it is not that bad. it is probably better than what most people have hoped for, when you look at where we were in november, december. greg: yesterday's jobless claims notwithstanding, look at how strong the job market is. next week we will get hourly average earnings. wages are going up. we think that will support prices. jonathan: your view is the treasury yields are going lower. matthew: we are at 2.25 by the end of the year. we look at the data this morning and what jumps out at me, putting the gdp report to the side, is what the university of michigan report was telling us, consumer expectations about long-term inflation.

typically, the preliminary report gets revised higher, but this time it did not. 2.3% as we look on the terminal. this is a low expectation from consumers on inflation. heaven forbid the oil price goes down, breakeven inflation comes off. the fed will be even more worried than today. jonathan: i want to get to a dynamic that has been worrying people. treasury yields are coming this week and the dollar strengthened. can you make sense of that? greg: the u.s. is still the high-yielder in the world. now, if you are a levered investor and looking to borrow money to buy something, you are not coming to the u.s. because it cost money to borrow here. if you are a real money investor and are willing to take currency risk coming you are going to come to the united states. that has supported the dollar despite what most people have thought. jonathan: are we seeing increasing signs of that? investors are looking at the united states, coming in

unhedged, you end up with a result of a stronger fixed income market, asset prices rich enough, and the dollar gets stronger as well? are we seeing signs of that? iain: we are definitely seeing signs of that, and it is not just europe, it is happening in asia and japan as well. people are saying, actually we are in a world of negative yields. we have a big increase in the amount of negative yielding bonds across europe, japan. let's look to the u.s. 10-year treasuries, 2.5%, not as high as we would like it, but a lot better than domestically. if you hedge that yield away, you don't get anything. they are looking at buying 2.5% and doing in unhedged good . jonathan: are we start to see that, greg? greg: one more piece of the equation. stock volatility, yield volatility, and currency volatility has been low. those willing to take the currency risk feel more comfortable because they feel either side is muted. almost 200 basis points of real

yield in u.s. jonathan: that comfort in low volatility, is that misplaced? greg: i think it is correctly placed. what i worry about is too many bets on either side, and then you get that explosion of volatility, like we saw in march 2018. up, thoseto pop explosions every 4, 5 months. i worry about the tinder for that fire building again. matthew: we agree. at the end of the day, you need an event to spark price action in the marketplace. there are things on people's radars. but typically the things that make volatility go up are not on those radars. we think it is coming but it is hard to see. jonathan: final word on the subject, iain? iain: we are in a good environment at the moment, benign central banks, trend like growth, low inflation. you just need something to spark us to get that volatility up. it is hard to see where it will come from. at the moment, people are happy to play the carried trade and

run this low vol environment. jonathan: the economic data abroad through the week, some doubts emerging about whether the global economy stabilizes, particularly in china. do you think the buy america stories being reinforced by the fact that data is still ok, and there are some doubts happening more specifically in the asia-pacific region? matthew: absolutely. clearly you can see some improvement happening domestically in china, but when you look at the neighbors, you don't see it yet. you are not seeing it in japan, korea, certainly not in europe. that is a problem for a lot of investors. jonathan: definitely not in south korea. we had the trade data earlier this week, gdp in negative territory. it is hard for me to be convinced that china is recovering without a little sign of positive spillover to neighboring countries. greg: seems like so much of the growth coming from china is export driven. they are not importing what they otherwise would, so that growth is not going into neighboring economies.

jonathan: are we paying attention enough to this? that the recovery in china is different? the character of the spillover would be different, too. greg: i don't think the market is paying attention to it, and they should. matthew: i agree with greg. everyone is hopeful that what is going on in china will begin to spill out. even our economists are looking for some spillover to help europe along. but if they are wrong on that, it's a major issue for the marketplace and a major issue for the fed. jonathan: how disappointed will we be with the second half hopes? iain: when you look historically, you normally have a lag, 6-9 months in china, and then reverberating around the world. i agree it's been more domestically focused, the stimulus over the past few months, but when we were talking about it before, we expected more weakness followed by the pickup in q2 and the second half. maybe we are getting too excited because data is coming through in china, has not fed through to

the rest of the world. let's keep an eye on that. i feel it is such a big component of local growth, it is unlikely to sustain itself internally and not filter out. jonathan: a key story for the rest of the year. that is for sure. coming up on the program, the auction block. netflix dominating the show in the u.s. junk-bond market. that conversation next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro.

this is bloomberg "real yield." i want to head to the auction block, where we begin in the united states. the treasury very busy through the week.

offering 2, 5, 7-year notes. pretty solid demand. the $32 billion seven-year auction was awarded with 2.46% with primary dealers receiving the highest shares since october. in corporate's, netflix attracting demand, luring another $6 million in pricing. the 10.5-year dollar securities will yield 5.375% while the euro notes were sold at 3.875%. finally, automotive seat manufacturer avian priced 7% senior secured bonds together with a $800 million term loan. it will refine its existing -- it will refinance its existing credit facility, another sign capital markets remain supportive for high-yield issuers. matthew hornbeck, greg staples, and iain stealey are still with me. the high-yield market, do you still get the feeling that this is wide open for issuance? iain: i think so.

we saw that in europe. very little supply over the course of the year. eight or so deals came about after the easter break. investors have been snapping them up. there has been a thirst for supply, cash on the sidelines. people came into the year slightly defensive. i think supply can come. the good news from the european standpoint, a lot of it was for refinancing, so we are not seeing a pickup in leverage. greg: absolutely a demand for high-yield coming from retail, institutional investors. we are 150 basis points tighter in high-yield than the beginning of the year. i do not see it stopping anytime soon. jonathan: the team at bloomberg intelligence spent some time breaking down the spread return of leverage. on historical measure in terms of the average, not great. iain: within the high-yield market, you could maybe argue for the investment grade space. high-yield leverage does not

look too bad, coming down since 2016. ultimately, from a valuation standpoint, that is the big question. as was just mentioned, down 150 basis points on the year, back at levels from last september. the question is where we go from here? but we are in this environment where we have trend like growth, accommodative central banks, the cycle feels like it's been extended. people will come back. the hunt for yield is back. jonathan: we also have to work out what is driving that less spread of returns, whether it is leverage picking up. what do you see as the dominant factor? iain: on the investment grade side, we see leverage coming down. peaked a couple quarters ago. the last two quarters have looked good. we will see what happens this earnings cycle. across the european and u.s. high-yield markets, we do not see leverage that concerns us. the current environment is perfect in our mind for credit on this decent nominal growth

standpoint. jonathan: greg, let's talk about high-yield versus investment grade. if you had to make the choice right now, do you think about the regional composition of those indexes? the more international investment grade and domestic in the u.s., is that a factor in the thinking for you? greg: i don't think so. we are getting comfortable with diversification on the investment grade space. the u.s. tends to be where the high-yield market has more diversification. overseas, you're much more limited into natural resource companies and not much beyond that. jonathan: what about floating rate versus fixed rate, high yield versus leveraged loans? the prospect for rate hikes, it is not there for many people. then they take away from that, why would i want to be in floating rate? is there any prospect for a rate hike at any point in the next year as far as morgan stanley and the team are concerned? matthew: not within the next year. our chief economist is looking for rate hikes in the back half of 2020.

but those forecasts have been changing. a lot can happen between now and the next 12 months. it is hard to see at this point a rate hike being delivered, but if the s&p keeps going up, credit spreads keep tightening, if financial conditions continue to ease, the fed will have their third mandate in question, financial stability. jonathan: iain, i have heard increasingly as the week has progressed, maybe we are right pe for a bit of a rotation from the great performance in high yield toward the underperformance of loans. what do you think of that? iain: i'm not sure. we have seen a lot of money come out of loans. i think it's about the floating rate component. people piled into loans last year as rates were going up. as they have stabilized, now the worry is the market is pricing in cuts, they are not as attractive. it feels like high-yield bonds make more sense. you have that yield and also the possibility of capital gain in

f those yields come down. greg: we have seen the leverage loan index yielding higher than the high-yield index. that is a rarity. people are not anticipating any tightening anytime soon. we disagree. we think the next move will be a tightening at the end of the year or early next year. but for the moment, that is the dynamic. jonathan: if you disagree on the rate story, are you rotating out of high-yield into loans, that is something you are doing? greg: we are starting to do that. the other dynamic is how much selling from retail is going into the clo business. they have a good appetite for loans. jonathan: great to have you with us. let's get a market check. what a week for treasuries. yields coming in 10 basis points on the 2-year, 2.28 on a week where we had a pretty decent gdp print. the nuances are the important part of all this. yields coming low on the 10-year as well. down six basis points. still ahead, the final spread.

the spotlight shifting to jay powell. another news conference following an fomc rate decision. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro.

this is bloomberg "real yield." it is time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, a busy one. more tech earnings wrapping up with google on monday. apple results on tuesday. trade representative bob lighthizer and steven mnuchin traveling to beijing to resume talks on wednesday. a fed decision and news conference with chairman powell coming up. rates likely to remain on hold for the bank of england on thursday. a busy week for u.s. data concluding with jobs numbers on friday. still with us is matthew hornbeck, greg staples, and iain stealey. let's look ahead to next week.

what are you looking for from chairman powell? iain: what will be interesting is his take and reading on inflation. that is the ship we have seen over the past few months. it is all about inflation. that is the fed's mandate now. they know the growth side is ok. to me, what is the lower bound, what will be low enough to knock them into cutting rates at this stage? matthew: the idea of an insurance rate cut is definitely something people are going to be interested in hearing about. depending on what he says in his prepared remarks, hopefully some enterprising reporters will ask him about the concept of an insurance rate cut. jonathan: maybe some here at bloomberg that may ask the question. walk me through that concept. a wink wink to michael mckee. walk me through this concept of an insurance rate cut. matthew: when you go back and look at the first rate cuts in each of the previous several cycles, the word insurance came up when you read the fomc transcript. this is not a new concept.

what we have to remember about an insurance rate cut, you buy insurance before the house burns down. that is the idea here. before inflation gets to an unsustainably low level, they need to put some additional accommodation in place. greg: interesting to talk about but very unlikely. look at this morning's gdp print. i don't think the fed needs to step in and do anything right now. inflation will be fine. iain: i don't think they need to do anything. i just feel that is the direction of travel. the market is pricing cuts in as we look out into next year. the likelihood is we will see inflation weakening over the next couple months. maybe it picks up later in the year. that is where everyone's attention will be. what we have been talking about more recently is this concept of average inflation over the cycle. at the time we are dipping down, we have been below 2% over the past five years. that is what people will drill into. jonathan: i would love to get an idea from you guys of how you

think risk assets would respond to a federal reserve rate cut. if the federal reserve started talking about an insurance rate cut, wouldn't that worry people rather than build more confidence? iain: i think the markets would fly. you have seen that today with people looking at inflation print, stocks doing well. the global economy, the u.s. economy, 3% gdp growth, looks good. employment looks good, the consumer looks good. i don't think they need to do a cut and you would just put fuel on the fire. matthew: i completely agree. if it is an insurance rate cut, that means it is being put in place without any real fear. currently in the marketplace. that should send assets higher. the one thing i want to bring up, we are expecting a rate cut next week. more of a technical issue with respect to the interest the fed pays banks on excess reserves. jonathan: you are looking for five basis points. walk me through the thinking.

matthew: we are seeing the effect of federal funds rate move higher. currently at 2.44%, below the target range. we think this sets up the fed nicely to make another technical adjustment. this would be the first technical adjustment that they would make in the absence of a rate hike. there will be some communication the fed has to do, but that is something chairman powell can address in his prepared remarks. jonathan: i look forward to seeing him try to navigate that news conference. the final round, you know it is time for the rapidfire round. this gdp print, as good as it gets for 2019 yes or no? matthew: yes. greg: no. iain: yes. jonathan: it has been tough for the year for high-yield relative to performance to leverage loans. is it time to start rotating toward floating rate, yes or no?

matthew: no. greg: yes. iain: no. jonathan: the intraday low for the 10 year yield, getting closer again, so i will ask again. 2.34 on an intraday basis. is that the low for the year in 2019? i know what you are going to say, matthew. matthew: absolutely not. greg: yes. iain: i think you can go lower. jonathan: great to catch up with you. interesting stuff. that does it for us from new york. see you next friday at 1:00 new york time. 6:00 p.m. in london. this was bloomberg "real yield"" this is bloomberg tv. ♪ so with xfinity mobile

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