welcome to "daybreak australia." i am paul allen. sophie: i'm sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. we are counting down to asia's major market open. ♪ paul: the top stories in the next hour, get ready for a global data dump with more of the world's biggest companies reporting earnings and a delusion of indicators from washington to beijing. socialism survives in spain with pedro sanchez sent to retain power. we will go to -- set to retain

power. we will go there. game,record for the end its opening weekend. april almost over, we have seen of stocks faltering. look at how u.s. markets fared on friday. the s&p and nasdaq closing at record highs. better than forecast earnings. amazon and 40 -- investors considered u.s. gdp reports which showed underlying weakness . the fed will begin easing this year. the policy decision will be closely watched for clues. this monday, we have japan off-line for golden week, also the start of the new imperial era. we also have a mixed start for the week with u.s. china trade talks in beijing and another round of voting in india's election.

they are off line this morning. kiwi shares are higher while aussie shares are hinting at decline. the asx 200 at pre-[indiscernible] levels. we have ego data do this week that could put on the pressure after last week's area disappointing gdp. samsung -- last week's disappointing gdp. we have earnings from across the region including from the banking sector. we have results from singapore and more major chinese lenders results. the anc kicks things off with aussie banks. let's get a check of first word news. su: we have election results in spain. the socialist leader pedro sanchez looks set to hang on as prime minister, cobbling together a left-leaning government coalition. the latest address from sunday's elections suggest sanchez may

need support from the catalan separatists after 10 months of the head of minority government. he was forced to cali staff election when he failed to pass call a snapaff -- election when he failed to pass a budget. as the angle of attack disagree alert on the boeing planes will be standard retrofitted tond those already flying. the wall street journal reported boeing did not tell southwest airlines back in 2017 a standard safety feature had been deactivated. the province of chinese industrial companies rebounded in march after an economic recovery gathers pace. profits data shows jumped 14%. a big jump from a year earlier.

that compares with a 14% decline in the first two months of this year. the manufacturing outlook has --ned brighter on a robust improving credit conditions. to the u.s., the justice department has told the house judiciary committee the attorney general may skip a thursday hearing on the mueller report. seek to question him. people from both sides of want to ask robert mueller's reports. it is unusual for a committee counsel to question a witness. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks very much. president xi jinping used the global stage at the second belt and road forum to signal a deep

commitment to china's economy. kathleen hays is in beijing with a recap. to president xi managed deflect criticism? is significant that xi jinping, coming out for the second belt and road forum, the first one to years ago, the initiative they started talking about in 2013, getting launched in 2016, has had this is him. people compare it to a debt trap or that there is investment in places where it they don't need it. presidency is investing -- theseent xi is addressing more than he has in the past. one of the things people said his speech was muted on initiatives in other countries, toning it down. he set the cleanup for the belt and road and vowed zero-tolerance on corruption. let's look at the joint

statement from belgian road participants at the end -- belt and road participants. it calls for high-quality projects. don't invest in something that won't pan out. going to invest in connectivity, connecting regions, spreading prosperity is one of the themes from china's point of view. he also said cooperation will be open, clean and green, a big theme. one of the things he touted was billion in people signing up. here is what he said saturday. >> many great business leaders participated in this ceo conferences. whoppers and worth over 64 billion u.s. dollars. all of the cooperation is in sync with the times while we admissions tolar

all. kathleen: a question being asked as this forum wraps up is nice words, smart words, encouraging words. now the world waits to see how much they turn into actions. encouraging words, but china's efforts to rehabilitate, have a had any success -- have they had any success? maybe the signature example is malaysia. the prime minister there was one of the biggest critics in southeast asia of this program. after is a big supporter the belt and road initiative, after china renegotiated the east coast rail project between 67 billion ringgit, $11 billion u.s., 45 got back to, malaysia is now on board and are a big supporter. the fact italy has joined the belt and road initiative, the

firstenergy seven nation to do so, alarmed some members of the first g7 nation to do so, alarmed some members of the e.u. third-party market corporation and some countries may never sign on. india boycotted this. the region, how do circling india, they will have nothing to do with it. paul: don't mention the war. theident xi didn't mention trade war but didn't send a powerful -- did send a powerful message. kathleen: he is ready it seems to not just sign on to but become a leader in, a champion in all the things being discussed in the trade negotiations. he talks about state subsidies being whittled down, getting rid

barriers, a big complaint of foreign countries trying to invest, imports, property protection, another big one. one of the key things people heard loud and clear was no more harmful currency deflation. tool tonot use it as a weaken our currency and paste exports. he highlighted binding imports for international agreements. this struck me so much in the face on friday when i heard this, a message to the white house and the world change is afoot and china is embracing this bigger role in the world. it is a powerful statement he wrapped into all of his comments. thank you so much for that. 5000 delegates attending. the new avengers end game movie is smashing records turning $1.2 billion -- earning $1.2 billion

in its first weekend, the first to do so. they are to $350 million in the u.s. and canada -- they earned $350 million in the u.s. and canada and set records in 44 countries. looking at record-breaking updates, a reporter here. disney really killing it with the avengers. give us the top lines in. as you said, it is breaking a series of records because the film was opening already in china and had set a new record in china before it opened in the u.s., the avengers end game, the franchise,in 22 film managed to top $1.2 billion in a global opening week, it set records for the u.s.. we expect it to overtake potentially the last jedi --

sorry, the week of the first isr wars movie, and there titanic and avatar which hold the biggest records for movies globally ahead of it. if it carries on, it could break even more. paul: you say 22 films, 11 years a pretty much a resounding success for disney, so it in this phase of -- it ends this phase. it was such a success during you have got to imagine they will try it again. reporter: although they haven't announced the films for next year, there are at least two marvel films, not to mention the films, the marvel films that are the ones to should be to buy sony, andstributed by then there are others around the x-men. and the brains

behind this franchise had said he has mapped out the next five years. we know there is more coming. we expect that to be led by captain marvel, a female character, and a more diverse range of superheroes including an asian superhero. paul: thank you so much for joining us on a very impressive weekend at the box office. ahead, the ruling spanish socialist party looks on course to win the country's snap election. we will hear the latest from our reporter in madrid. sophie: and what to expect from a very busy week of upcoming arcade action. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

smoke inre is a lot of the air around sydney harbour, looks like hazard reduction burns happening. the sydney futures looking flat

as we count down to the open, just under two hours time. i am paul allen in sydney. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. it is a big week ahead with big-name earnings, plenty of data and fresh u.s.-china trade talks in beijing. jerome powell will speak and new payroll data. we have su keenan joining us with a preview of that run down. what do we have up when it comes to earnings going on? we have plenty with peak earnings season. give us highlights. su: the question is will it drive in advance of the new stock records, particularly the s&p and nasdaq? we have mixed earnings as of late but keeping very strong friday along with the stronger than expected gdp that helped

drive things higher. the story really was the stock market. crude oil will come back to that, really took a hit as president trump has called for sanctions, waivers against, buying from iranian oil to be removed and you will notice that affected oil stocks. oil ticked higher friday because of what was beneath the hood of the gdp data. we will get to that. look at the stoxx that are going to be in the spotlight as we get in the monday trade. we will mention disney had that blowout of record numbers, returns, $1.2 billion globally in terms of the box office. they have done really well with these franchises on the comic book heroes. berkshire hathaway also in focus this coming week. they will be having an investor showcase. behrens came out with suggestions for the annual investor day, for the underperforming stocks and the buybacks, paying dividends,

showing some of the next executives that will be in a succession land for buffett. planplan for -- succession for buffett. trouble with the 737 max jet that was not initially reported, that filtered through in trading. , a saudi oil company likely to pay $450 million close to its middle eastern drilling site. at the bloomberg, gtv, you can see the bottom line on gdp, real final sales -- inventories and trade droves or helped boost gdp far beyond the expectation. when you strip out inventory which acts as an investment to push the number higher, you get silent sales. those are lower than the reported number. that is what some of the market

will focus on monday as they digest the full details. names lastd some big weekend and more this week. the -- what is on the ticket? su: apple is the marquee report. let's look at the list of names. there is quite a few good apple, google, ge, qualcomm in terms of the numbers, the way these stocks have closed, apple, google, ge, qualcomm, hsbc, gm, spotify and mcdonald's. this one will be in focus. general motors, oil pumping the most in two months. president trump are missing lower prices, also getting on the phone with the saudi's and there has been talk about seeing the drop dead day so to speak for these waivers about being removed for the sanctions,

china, they announced they will buy oil from iran. thanks so much. let's get a set up for what we get in market action this week with the equity portfolio , aager from barrow hanley firm with $75 billion in assets under management. thank you for joining us. we have stocks rising on friday. we have gains driven by a better second half. are you in that camp or think price gains, they are running ahead of fundamentals? >> i think we see continued movement from here. we talked about gdp. it is still positive, earnings growth unbalanced, still significant growth and earnings coming through. what is more important and has fed isthe markets is the going to come out and become

more dovish. some people think because inflation is so low they could cut rates into the year. if we are going to get significant monetary stimulus, it will be a nice tailwind. we have the fed being priced in with easing this year. if that is the case, what are you seeing? >> the fed is doing the right thing, it will be data driven, we see modest, good growth in the u.s. economy. cuts are not the first thing we think of. if inflation stays low, it gives the fed the ability to either stay on this sideline, ultimately positive for the market. you are a value investor. where are you seeing good value? >> on the cyclical side. expensive,ve is more

we will see the positive tailwinds, consumer discretionary, we are seeing value in those areas of the market. tech i know you like how has been performing but it has been so well it has not had much value. i would like to give you the case of intel. discount? ig enough concerned that they are potentially losing market share, have issues with competition, and although the stock is cheap, it is cheap for a region. we would avoid it here in general. many of the companies that reported earnings this week or last week, these are great companies. obviously they are highly valued. for the most part we are going other places to find values. health care space,

we saw stocks take a hit earlier this month. we have more earnings including from pfizer and merck. give us why you like this. >> we have to bifurcate this because what we see now, the hmo stocks have had a significant selloff. that is not around fundamentals. these are significant discounts. the 20% range, really selling off, political fears around medicare for all. political noise toward the elections. we've already seen a significant selloff in these names. rhetoric ort of the damage for the multiples have been done, great companies with good fundamentals moving forward, lots of good cash flow and earnings.

we think those specifically are great values. if we could turn to the casino space, we have earnings from the likes of mgm and -- what is driving the support for growth in the area? growthu is a long-term story whether it is the vip market or the mass market with infrastructure being built. it is a long-term growth the story. when it comes to mgm, they have two casinos. iny pushed out to be renewed 2022, and it is our belief we see some of this trade concern move forward, the market will look to that as they get those renewed, then they move forward. competing for a potential casino in japan. think this is about $3.50 of

cash flow. lots ofxpensive with good opportunity to move forward and lots of cash flow coming back with high-value, high return products. paul: all right, thank you very much for joining us this morning. the equity portfolio manager. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get in daybreak.g bloomberg subscribers can go to dayb on your terminals. it is also available in the anywhere app. you can customize your settings so you only get news on industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

is a quick check of business flash headlines, a shareholder rebellion at bayern made worse after the

.o-confidence vote over the ceo investors are frustrated with the decision to back him and his strategy that led to the $63 billion monsanto takeover. they have lost $39 billion in market via because of lawsuits alleging them monsanto weedkiller roundup causes cancer. ufj plans toshi cut half of the number of employees at its tokyo headquarters. they decided some of the functions performed by the 6000 staff could be automated with robotic and ai technology. many of the current staff will be relocated to the domestic sales division and to overseas branches. got -- hsbc could have job cuts. you can see -- missing revenue and cost targets. bloomberg target say they into's -- they accused of the leadership of incompetence.

staff will be informed around midyear. paul: coming up next, we will update you on the elections in spain. ♪

paul: it is 8:30 a.m. in sydney, there is smoke over the city. is 90 minutesn away. i am paul allen in sydney. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong where it is 6:30 a.m. let's get to first word news with paul. paul: sri lanka has been face coverings, preventing muslim women from wearing the veil. it is in response to the easter sunday bombings. the government blamed the bombings on an islamist group which says it had foreign help. the prime minister has admitted

the attacks could have been blended -- could have been prevented if agencies had acted on known intelligence. interest rate cuts are only a matter of time after last year's series of hikes. the bank's next policy meeting is may 9. any action will depend on oil prices are in if they stay high, rates will be unchanged. the bank has yet to reverse 175 basis points of rate increases with swings and global growth -- in mobile growth. many carried yellow umbrellas which was a symbol of the pro-democracy protests five years ago. sunday's rally was against an extradition law which opponents say threatens to erode the one policy that systems gives hong kong autonomy from mainland china.

let's get more on what we should be watching last -- watching as trading gets underway. hedge funds ramping up against the vix, volatility for equities that will stay low. reporter: it is an interesting milestone because being short volatility it is something we have had to contend with. and january we had the huge spike in volatility. with low levels it surprised people. the situation we are at now as we look at the data on a weekly basis, you can see on this chart, with gtv go on your terminal, it shows the net short position is back at a new level. we have never seen this before. there is plenty of people in the market that are either outright betting on volatility to stay low and get even lower our using it as a hedge. whether it -- or using it as a

hedge. whether the s&p hit fresh all-time highs last week, it may be a sense people who are expecting equities to grind higher are using that as a way to express that trade as well on the short side. you would expect equities to grind higher. volatility will continue to subside and keep new lows. there could be a bit of reasons why that is happening but let's -- what it tells us about equity investors at the moment is they are very comfortable the fed has their back at the moment. even if you don't expect cuts, if you are in the camp, on hold, it is very much a place equities continues to be the place to be, where people want to add incrementally, and of course ,arnings as we have seen largely they continue to support the idea that all the worst fears about the earnings recession in q1 this year have

not been met. earnings are doing enough to support stop -- stock prices which now are getting to levels that are testing for some people. this speaks to the weeks ahead, that we will really look to give us reason to selloff what news will come out that will make people selloff because in absence of that you may see equities continue to grind. sophie: short hash tax coming back, but going back to the fed with that decision coming up wednesday, the markets pricing in rate cuts. give us a sense why for one notable bond fund manager, it has gone too far? adam: what we saw friday with the gdp report was really kind of a confirmation of what the bond market has been telling us. hoteconomy is neither too nor too cold to warrant

significant change in pricing from the federal reserve. the folks at janice henderson successor,rson, the he said the markets are getting ahead of itself. if you look at the fed funds futures curve, it is showing greater than 50% chance of a cut by the end of the year. he is saying, hang on, let's look at the data and continue to observe the data we are seeing because what we are seeing so far doesn't speak to the fed needing to trim rates. he is of the opinion the fed will need to move lower, but that will not be until sometime in the second half of next year and not this year. in essence this is about the market getting ahead of himself. what he is showing instead is look at short data treasuries and some corporate bonds in australia, canada and new zealand.

there -- our editor paul: our editor, adam hage. if you want to look at the charts, you can see them at the gtv library. that is on gtv on the bloomberg terminal. spain's prime minister pedro sanchez will win reelection for a second term. his socialist parties are close to winning a majority of seats. been sales joins us from madrid. update us on the latest numbers and what it means for spanish politics. >> we have now counted all the votes, and the socialists and their allies are one or two seats short of a majority. everyone say they are the winner how he isite clear going to piece together that majority.

it will be an interesting time. we have got used to having political instability in spain, now four years since we had a government that could command a property majority. things will start to move forwards here really. and it is really kind of like a new cycle. sophie: we could see more stability with that majority. how would sanchez help the economy going forward? study as you go as far as economic policy is concerned. they have been looking to do more restrictive policies to help those people who have not economicted from the recovery in spain but they are committed to the budget discipline the e.u. is demanding. they will not rock the boat on that and is a question of keeping the strong recovery going. expect to see any

reaction on the markets to bonds or equity, affects? -- fx? reporter: for the markets it has been priced in. see -- want to see a dramatic move in monday's trading. for the longer-term, this is good probably for stocks and bonds, i would suggest. to our thank you bloomberg news european government editor been sales. -- ben stilts. here, economists said a strong headline number masks weak components in the report, forcing a fed rate cut. kathleen hays is here with the numbers and the response.

why is first quarter gdp the big win the president is celebrating? to a certain extent people can sympathize. looking at the number of 3.2%, it was supposed to rise three point 3%. usually you have seasonality for the past several years where it is the weakest number of the year. jump into this chart. to give you a sense of how this looks, on the far right-hand side, 3.2%. it is in line with the stronger numbers that have been -- the kind of numbers we saw last year with tax cuts that give extra juice to the economy. the problem is look at that, don't get enamored because it has a lot to do with trade. the trade war and trade negotiations because last year what a lot of businesses saw there would be tariffs. ahead of that they want to import as much stuff as they can.

there was a build of inventories in the first quarter. worked downve to be in the second quarter, so it will take away from second-quarter growth. another thing is that when you look at very important components the headline doesn't show consumption, consumer spending and business investment. business investments are just about flat, consumer spending cut in half. let's look at another chart. looking at consumption. on the far right-hand side, look how they were up almost 4% year-over-year back down to 1.2%. weaker consumption, weaker investment, where does that leave you? our team thinks the consumption pullback is temporary. there is income growth to support this over the year. that is why when people looked

into this, they said the headline looks good but not as great again as the president would have thought. how about inflation, the pullback? is that a fluke? -- it is something the fed will take seriously. they said in january when jay powell said what would it take to get back on the hiking path, he said rising inflation. a good thing, and they are meeting. let's look at another chart, taking a look at the pce, the deflator, the number they are watching. it is a quarterly number. down to 1.4%,e is another 1.3%. this is a move in the wrong direction. it is may be temporary, but what kind of policy when you see inflation coming down?

the monthly leaders -- numbers on this, the court year-over-year will be up, and they will be weaker, 1.7% and 1.6%. the president of the chicago fed gave a speech and said if we saw inflation following, that could set the scenario for a rate cut. writing over the weekend, the bar for the fed to move on rates is a growth. he agrees if inflation keeps falling, the fed could be heading for a rate cut. interesting for the federal reserve at this meeting. one more reason it will be watched not for a rate move but for what the policy statement says and for what jay powell says at the press conference after the meeting. sophie: kathleen hays, thank you. pushes president trump for concessions from japan as he tries to a -- wrap up a new trade agreement. this is bloomberg. ♪

allen in sydney. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. president trump has his eye on farm tariffs amid trade negotiations with china. he asked for japan to end products, u.s. farm saying they are unfair. he will go there in late may. let's begin with ros krasny. it is interesting. it is difficult to see much happening on agricultural tariffs with japan, certainly before elections in july. apparently prime minister abe suggested today over the weekend in interviews that nothing for july. to some extent or a large extent this is an upshot of president donald trump pulling the u.s. out of the tpp trade pact as one

of his first acts. that gave u.s. farmers disadvantage when trading with japan compared to europe and others. we can hear more about this probably when president trump goes to japan in late may. he is explained that he is expected to go after the new emperor takes the throne and expected to go in late june for the g20 meeting. that is the big path forward. president trump teased a massive japanese investment in the u.s. auto industry. what are the specifics? ros: he talks about that at his ,ally last night in green bay wisconsin, a rust belt, blue-collar state, not big in the auto industry but certainly one where there is interest in manufacturing jobs. no specifics given by the president.

$40 billion in the auto industry, didn't go in to detail. our colleagues today have tried to follow after the white house and with u.s. trade authorities, to see some timeline and really didn't get very far on that. we do know that toyota land additional investments in the u.s. and in canada. really it seems that if there was some kind of promise by prime minister abe to president trump on autos, it could be a tactical move to head off any suggestions the u.s. will go ahead with the auto input tariffs trump has threatened from time to time on national security grounds. obviously very interesting to think there could be a massive new investment but we will have two wait and see. -- we will have to wait and see.

sophie: he could have more meetings with shinzo abe soon. yes, between the end of may and the end of june. there was the level of high ministerial meetings in washington last week and those will resume again quite soon. to strike aush bilateral deal sooner rather than later. these trickyion of issues and if they can be ironed out. paul: our editor there, thank you. with us now, we have the hoover institution director of policy studies lonnie chen. let's start off with that japan story. picking apart japan's agricultural sector has been difficult. what is president trump's hopes of doing that outside the tpp?

lonnie: he is trying to make progress on a deal he thinks he can get done more quickly. negotiations with china have dragged on and that deal has taken longer to get together than he wanted. he sees japan as an opportunity given his relationship with prime minister abe. the issues are no less sticky of augh japan is more potential partner then china has been. we will see how this develops. but i think you want to get a quick win out of japan have opposed that he wants to get a quick win -- i think he wants to get a quick win out of japan as opposed to china. paul: it could come as soon as the end of may where a signing ceremony is penciled. do you think it will go ahead? lanhee: i do because of the accountith the current

deficit have been more easily solved. there are longer questions that are more sticky and will not be part of this deal. given he is going into every election cycle, it is crucial for him to have a deal with china. it is crucial to market that to constituencies and crucial for him to hold that over the heads of democratic party challengers. politics favor a deal and that is why he is pushing to get that done soon. biden comingjoe into the ring, he might also look to trade relations as a means of garnering support away from trump? lanhee: it is possible. vice president biden was part of an administration with obama that favored constructive engagement with china that had a

traditional approach that other presidents have taken. vice president biden will have to deal with that record. he is entering into an electoral cycle where being aggressive is popular including in states like pennsylvania and wisconsin which are manufacturing states. he will have to win if he wants to beat president trump in 2020. the quest is does vice president a candidate- as break from what he said in the past in terms of his role as the vice president, or does he stick to that line and take a moderate approach? politics favor the aggressive line given his likely opponent, should he win the nomination. we had xi jinping host thousands of delegates and regional leaders at the belt and road forum, an attempt to garner more support for themselves against the u.s. when it comes to influence. how does that factor into trade talks in the sea and beijing?

and beijing? belt and road is a problematic way for the chinese to expand the number of countries where they have influence around the world. the question is, it falls into the bucket of potential things that could trip up the agreement, not so much in terms of whether there is agreement but the timing. , north korea, what will happen with respect to north korea? kim jong-un has taken a belligerent line towards trump and pompeo. we will see if that has an impact on their ability to come to a deal at the end of may. paul: another sticking point we saw last week, oil, and the end waiversit -- sanctions with iran. could that be another sticking point?

lanhee: absolutely. the u.s. is trying to influence iran, and a number of countries that are currently engaging with the iranians in terms of participating in oil trade with them will be dissuaded from doing so by the removals of these. china is not one of those. they will do what it is doing -- they are doing. it complicates the situation with the u.s., but it speaks to the geopolitical concern which will be difficult for us to achieve more than a piecemeal deal on the current account deficit. maybe some ip, but fundamentally the u.s. and china have differences that will not be bridged anytime soon. the oil issue demonstrates those political differences. much, fromnk you so the domestic policy studies. out of some numbers singapore, first-quarter numbers

coming in for a beat with net --ome 1.65 alien dollars billion dollars sing. 1.88% versusmargin what we saw in the previous quarter. 1.5%.e improvement at this is after the suppressed fourth-quarter numbers. we have this one looking steady with earnings despite some of the lending with the group. that is your wrap on their first-quarter results. ♪

paul: quick check of business five of china's biggest banks reporting on monday. bloomberg intelligence says topline growth at icbc, ccb bank of china and bank of

communications likely. revenue gains could be eroded by deteriorating loan quality. the merger bank -- they outperformed. authorities are pushing more lending. sophie: the japanese government and nissan have refused to engage in merger discussions with renault. the relations between the companies have sunk to a new low after sorceress is -- after what sources characterize as -- guiding the company toward merger when he was charged last november with financial misconduct at nissan. the avengers end game movie is smashing records, earning $1.2 billion in its opening weekend. it is the first film to exceed $1 billion on opening. it earned $350 million in the u.s. and canada and more in china, setting records in 44

countries through the previous record was held by the earlier avengers movie, infinity war. will talk markets with sean taylor at dws. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: good morning. we are now ellie mae from the australian market open. -- an hour away from the australian market open. sophie: welcome to "daybreak: asia." paul: our top story this monday, get ready for a global data dump with more of the world's biggest companies reporting earnings and a dilution of indicators from washington to beijing. socialism survives in spain. we look at to madrid for the latest. and the latest