tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg May 14, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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scarlet: do you think that perhaps the president's approach is pushing on these tariffs is a waiting at the federal reserve to cut rates and boost the economy interim -- in time for the 2020 election? saira: it is difficult to say what is the end goal. investors, it is the more -- >> terms and really on one that, that inflation. this would unravel that bull market start. we are down to only a tense of 8% of the game today. we were coming up on 1.4%. >> there were certain benchmarks like the nasdaq.
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volumes are down as well, interestingly. we will get more enthusiastic analysis. greg's i was watching macy's. it rose today. macy's.was watching it rose today. a key metric to focus on will be margins. they have been squeezed over recent years. why are they being squeezed? let's look at factors that affect the first quarter. it has been a cold and wet spring. also, all of those investments that macy's has been making in a improving the in-store experience and rationalizing that store.
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any news with regard to making it the flagship store. earlier this year, there were reports that macy's had been in discussions about building a skyscraper. >> that is exciting. here is something that is even more exciting. up 3% to that. biotech has underperformed this year's rally. they are talking up the second being a low earnings expectation. with thehat expectation that a lot of these cutting edge technologies will feel these. you could have a setup up for a good rally in the back half of the year. they are singling out some of these names. they are set a pretty nice for a rally. those two companies should from ae to benefit
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conversion of sales, pipelines and regulatory momentum. talked aboutalso medicare for all. a lot of those issues are not going to be resolved until after the 2020 election. the coast is clear. not -- luke:id they did not think this one they were at record highs. that they have taken over protections. you may think this is hindsight capital. they are just entering what they think they should be answering. there is actually some support for this if we go into the options market. you're out of the money options. throughout 2019, as
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stocks are rallying, this measure continues to rise. by the time may 2 was around. as a cutoff.at it is one standard deviation above the one you mean. it looks like there were times the truth. think trade war is the cheap risk. they are not prepared for a full breakdown in trade talks. us, sarah.till with surveyme bank of america found that there are trades in short european stocks ending long in the u.s. dollar. there should be some resolution to the trade war. is this what you see out there? review europe as a
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subset. not only because of some of the trade issues and the relationship to china but because you can't get it act together when it comes to rejuvenating its growth rate. you are very challenging. we are avoiding this right now. there are some sectors of the market that people can really focus on. own leversith their to pull, we are not surprised to see biotech performing well. staples companies, some of them have strong organic growth. there are areas that you can invest some of the growth right now. >> i know that saira and romaine are trying to impress us right now. i'm not crazy about this.
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i want to go back to what he said about the strategists. how can anyone feel that confident about the necessity to get a deal after we have been watching the brexit train wreck laying out for almost three years now? how can you look at these things as do or die and feel that there forced?onclusion twoa: that is where the events diverge. binarywas seen as a event. it becomes more of that after we get extension after extension, it gets pushed down the world. nextne the third is the deadline. >> before halloween. we have seen many dates. the next date that everybody might be watching might be june 1.
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that is when china has about for this intoffs to go to effect. say that does not happen, we did not get a deal at the last june 20 meeting either. it could be this event that is pushed out brother and father. especially if you believe that china has come to a hard-line stance because they think they can hold out until the 2020 election. this is the all in relationship with campus -- cannabis. this is a $4 billion company. the foot -- the first quarter adjusted for a loss. after hours.
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>> when you put it that way, it sounds pretty expensive but what do i know? >> there is resilient in the selloff. the recent ipo seems to be all in on vegetarian-based meat substitutes. where have you like to continue -- liked to continue? >> a company like coke has low organic growth. from justus ag soda company to a total beverage company. they are making coffee and running it through the distribution system. linda is a good m&a start. they have a new ceo that is more focused on pricing and proper advertising. companies like these are very interesting.
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romaine: here is how u.s. stocks managed to rebound. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss" romaine: the global stocks selloff. president trump reassuring markets, insisting a deal with china is still within reach. now his attention turns to energy dominance. a new plant in louisiana. in the middle east, oil prices are sent higher. rebounds. 8000 dollars and its longest winning streak since 2030. -- 2013. let's keep up with a rebound. u.s. stocks are up. they suffered the worst drop in four months. president trump is rushing to insist that a trade deal is still in the cards with china. are in a very strong
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position. if they want to make a deal, it could absolutely happen. in the meantime, a lot of money is being made by the united states. a lot of strength is being shown. this has never happened to china before. our economy is fantastic. there's is not so good. >> we want to welcome michael. he formerly served as the chief representative in beijing. could you cast your mind back there, would you be telling the u.s. treasury debt their economy is not so good? michael: i would not but it has been a very couple different -- a very different couple of years. there was suffering because of domestic policies. there was this campaign that overshot last year. the president is right. this is having an impact on china economy. the risk is underestimating
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china's resolved in getting through this if they need to. >> one thing we have seen in weeks,days, maybe recent nationalist sentiment rising. down tradeas playing tensions. it seemed that they turned elsewhere. how duggan is china at this china atdug in is this point? michael: china is responding to a stiff challenge from the u.s.. i don't think the window is challenged -- closed right now. carefulthey have been to calibrate this and preserve some room, domestically. isif the opening for a deal there, it would be at the g20 summit. they could still pivot and not boxed themselves -- boxed
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themselves-- box into a corner. >> it seems like it could be easier to extract things out of china if the u.s. is working in tandem with other nations. michael: it is not a stupid question. many in the administration would agree with that. it is probably the approach where the u.s. feels like a pressure campaign will be the most effective. a lot of it is the president. many people in the administration was say privately that it wouldn't take china is -- what would billy force them to change policies is teaming up with japan. the president is determined to push trade agreements under threat with many of those trading partners. about the this is president. caroline: can you talk about the reaction function from china? it comes to the fact that the u.s. wanted to keep tariffs in
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place? toticularly when it comes steal and aluminum. how much of that is a negative effect on china and how much of those tactics need to be changed? tariffs are hard to pull back on when they are already in place. michael: this is the increase on tariffs.-25% they want to increase pressure on china not just in the short term on exports but on multinational and chinese companies having to move overseas. this is a point that the president has had to -- has repeated. he has internalized this as a source of pressure. this is a difficult moment for the chinese leadership. >> there is a weird thing where there are a lot of people who
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criticize president trump and how he handled these trade negotiations. a lot of them also say that there is a broader point, china does pose a threat. there is a tension emerging on industrial policy. another thing that people say is we don't think long-term as much as we should be. we are not willing to sacrifice. therere an argument that -- there is a lot of stock market volatility western mark unemployment is very low. -- volatility? unemployment is very low. michael: i think it is a coherent argument. it is actually surprising, the degree of anonymity. peopler words, many think this is the right fight for the u.s. to pick. i think the question is is that leading to a deal? what is happening with
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this latest escalation. as long as that leads to a deal, i think there is a significant amount of support for the accident. i think people share his view that the u.s. is winning by just keeping tariffs in place. people shareink his view that the u.s. is winning just by keeping tariffs in place. trumping up, president weighing in on energy from a terminal in louisiana. more on that i had -- ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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gas isefied natural something that china is threading tariffs on. president trump weighing in on energy, saying that we don't need to be ripped off from a new terminal in louisiana. let's speak to the energy sector head. bridgina.rgina -- but all the infrastructure that we have in place, not in place to export it, how dependent are we on china as a partner in that process? >> we are reasonably dependent on china.
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i would not say it is debilitated -- debilitating but that is where a lot of our early cargo has gone. we have seen a response from china. they went from 80% of the exports to china down to 20% of exports are going to china. there is still lots and lots of other markets for our lng but it is having an impact. i would foresee that it would continue to have an impact. caroline: how is it having an impact? is it affecting your clients right here, right now? >> know. we still have 330 trillion dollars -- billion dollars of investment going into lng. there are 30 projects globally that are not even at pre-permitting. i don't see a those going through yet. we're still leading the tea leaves about what will happen
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with supply and demand. lng will become more like crude. it will change the whole supply demand dynamic that we have seen in the past. >> in the last couple of days, tensions in the middle east have risen between saudi arabia and the claims of attacks on a couple of taggers. .- tankers how much are people talking about this and should they be more concerned about a potential and intentions in the area? regina: we are at a unique point in time with supply and demand are almost in precise balance. price moree oil susceptible to a supply shock. i was chatting with you all a couple of weeks ago, i said we are one small supply disruption away from a spike.
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production counts for more than 40% of that demand. and people see this going online or off-line, there are more tense or volatile reactions. we are quite dependent on what is happening in the middle east. for world oil markets, i think it is a little dangerous to box i ran in in particular. >> you have seen responses from mike pompeo. how do you factor the tension going on there? do think it will escalate something a little more severe to the point that we would have an additional disruption on the oil market? >> a couple of words ago, i was not factoring that in as intensely but i see rising risk that. i think we are seeing with the different disruptions, and armed drone attackrmed
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on a pipeline, think about that. dig about how the lines we are on the oil tankers that are traversing our ocean all the time. i do worry that it might get a little worse before it gets better. caroline: to that end, when you look at the balance of one side's demand concerns because we have trade tensions and global slowdowns, on the other side, supply issues, is your view that the risk is on the higher side for oil? regina: i am starting to feel even more bullish about price. i think it could go over 75. i did not think we would see that. i thought we would stay within this nice weak spot. between 65 and 75. if we don't see some
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de-escalation in the ampolitical tensions, i afraid we will see a spike above 75. if it gets toward 80, that triggers a whole bunch of other supply and demand factors that we are not even considering by now. >> great to get your analysis today. thank you. let's get you a check on the latest business flash headlines. disney is assuming full operational control of this dreaming service. they are entering an agreement 33% ownership of hulu. as early as january, 2024, disney could buy out the nbc stake. the trump administration tariffs could be a problem for fans of the polo shirt. the cover he gets one third of its products from china. they could get hit with the tariffs. lauren gets shoes made in china as well.
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>> updating messaging services. inject spyware. they make changes to block the attack. the app was on by facebook. this to my attention. the so called pegasus. a few journalist been complained about this particular use of fiber malware. it is getting more and more targeted at the wrong people. even though the israeli owners only sending it to government. >> you can control a lot of this technology wants it is out there. >> there is the myth of end-to-end encryption. we should check that out. meanwhile, coming up, bitcoin's winning streak continues. more on what is driving that
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at comcast, we didn't build the nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology...
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there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. ♪ i am mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. venezuela's opposition-controlled national assembly could not hold an assembly today. agents were wearing ski masks and carrying rifles as they searched for what they said was a bomb. the national assembly president by theaido, recognized united states and 50 other countries as the legitimate leader of venezuela, wrote that they were trying to take power as the dictator was entrenched alone in his palace suspecting
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everyone around him. secretary of state mike pompeo says during a meeting with foreign minister sergei lavrov in sochi, he urged russia to end support of president maduro, but acknowledged that washington and moscow when it comes to venezuela are not on the same page. >> we have disagreements. i urged my russian colleagues to support the venezuelan people as they return democracy to their country. the u.s. and 50 other nations agree it is time for nicolas maduro to go. he has brought nothing but misery to the venezuelan people, and we hope russians' support for maduro will end. mark: secretary from pao added that despite differences -- pompeo added that despite differences, they will keep talking with russia. bayer has now lost three trials in a row in the u.s. over weedkiller roundup, with a jury in oakland ordering them to pay
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$2 billion to a couple who say they got cancer as a result of using roundup for about 30 years. ther will appeal and calls verdict excessive and unjustifiable. the founding director of the congressional budget office, known as a relentless fighter for deficit reduction, has died at 88. a spokesperson at the brookings institution where she was a senior fellow says alice rivlin died today. she also served as director of office of management and budget under president clinton, and during the reagan administration she questioned the validity of the president's optimistic deficit projections, which caused outcry among republicans in congress who called for her to step down. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
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i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. cryptoaders in the wild market arguing something new. protection from the ftse, something usually associate -- fdic, something usually associated with savings accounts. they are offering traders insured cash accounts. joining us for an exclusive interview, danny kim. thank you for joining us. we know it is a big source of anxiety, the counterparty risk in the crypto world because of all the hacks and stuff, so what are you offering to ameliorate that? danny: we started back in 2015, and the main thing was to make sure we were being secure, liquid and transparent. so looking to this market, we want people to understand what institutions need, what they feel more comfortable with. wasook at that, and it about making sure your funds are truly safe and separated, so if
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anything happens, you can look back and know that your funds are registered under your own name. sure everything is secure. romaine: in this process, for those people who may be rely on crypto for some degree of anonymity, do you lose that venturing into this? danny: not necessarily. this day and age, we have a variety of people looking to crypto for use cases. some looking at it perspective it of assets. individuals,h others, want it more as an appreciation. caroline: safe up to $250,000? danny: that's right. caroline: if you have millions in crypto, will that eventually be covered, insurance products able to withstand that amount? danny: that is one thing we have been focusing on, the next level. the main thing was to get the foundation first, make sure everyone understands what we are
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doing, and from there we get to the next phase. joe: to be clear, the protection is only on the cash one holds in the account. obviously one of the concerns is that if someone holds cryptocurrency, that an exchange could get hacked and lose a bunch of money, and ftse doesn't have to do with that? the usdtse is more on side, that whatever happens your usd will be secure. we want to get to the second level and make sure that infrastructure is set up. this is being done for the first time, segregation of accounts with u.s. dollars. romaine: so the question, there is opportunity here, but at some point, to expand what could be covered? how soon do you see that happening? danny: we are actively working with banking partners and insurance partners as well, so it could be as soon as a couple
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months or year. everything, when you're working on infrastructure it does take time, but that is something we are actively looking into. caroline: danny kim, thank you for breaking it down for us. head of growth at sfox. bitcoin hit another milestone at some point -- one point, beyond $8,000, the longest winning streak since 2013. various reasons have been given, one of them revived interest from institutions. the ceo of a cripple currency exchange joins us now. you -- cryptocurrency exchange joins us now. you were one of the first bitcoin believers, back in 2011, and you have been a bitcoin supporter from the earlier days. what is behind the rally from your perspective, or do you not really have an inkling? just a perfect storm? >> i think we have seen four or five bubbles at this point, so a lot of it is cyclical. people wait until they feel the bottom is in, when they feel the
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bear market is over, and then feel comfortable moving back into crypto. that's probably the biggest reason this is happening, but often these things are just a confluence of many individuals making their own decisions. joe: we see the chart and the huge run-up in 2017. i want to talk about your role in 2017. i counted shapeshift, over 50 coins available. how much do you think that the explosion of coins that we saw in 2017, all the ico's and forks, contributed to the bubble bursting? overload? i might be more erik: inclined to see that if we didn't see these bubbles before with bitcoin on its own. although there are thousands of crypto assets, only the first 10 or 20 have any importance at
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all, and the rest of them don't matter much and don't move the market. romaine: i understand that investors will always find a way to break bubbles when they can, but is there something more structural in regard to cryptocurrency that encourages speculative activity? erik: that is a great question. there has to be bubbles in crypto, because crypto is taking over the world and it won't advance just 5% a month without end. if that happened, people would start buying it up and turning it into a bubble. so there is no way to go from a zero dollar asset to one with trillions without massive speculation and volatility in cyclical bubbles. caroline: when does it stop being crypto as a speculative asset and store of value? when it takes over the world, by having practical uses? i know everyone says they are building, but we are yet to see one in action. erik: it depends on where you are. people use bitcoin in venezuela to escape inflation. businesses in the philippines use it to send money across
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borders more cheaply. individuals use it for all sort of things, but most of the use still is speculative, which you would expect or something pulling in more and more people around the world. joe: one of the things that made your exchange shapeshift stand out have an account on it, and it was set up so you could just send coins and say you wanted them transferred to another coin, it would take some time and then the user would receive the other coins. without having to give any id, name, social security number, bank accounts, anything like that. that has changed. now you see things about signing up, and regulators. how has that affected the business? erik: it has been rough. we built a model that was meant to encourage user privacy, and we think people have the right to financial privacy. it also made it for less friction, so people would arrive, convert one asset to another, similar to when you're
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at the airport and you can turn your euros into dollars and they don't ask you for id there. we wanted to build something useful and simple for people, so adding koac was difficult. romaine: what do you think will be the wide, broad adoption of crypto? what is the threshold we get to where we finally say, ok, this can be considered legitimate? erik: i have considered it legitimate since 2011, when i first discovered you can move money across borders instantly at near-zero cost. for other people, they need to see it work before they understand why it is legitimate. the legitimacy doesn't come from any endorsement from any group of people or any bank or government. just when people use it and discover that it works. it is open source code, so anyone can do that. caroline: you have invented frustration with regulators before, particularly in new york,, the last time we spoke. how do you feel, for the big institutions to really embrace it, it does take greg latoya change. are you fine -- regulatory change.
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are you finding the conversation is going in the right direction, in that respect? erik: i generally think people have the right to financial privacy, and unfortunately that is really a minority position. i don't think it will always be like that. i hope someday people will realize that is an important aspect of society, for people to have privacy of their thoughts, feelings, writings, and what they do with their money. but we aren't there yet. it will always be a minority position for the foreseeable future. joe: i am just curious. you are sitting here as we talked to our last guest about a crypto account with ftse insurance, andic that would seem to fly in the face in my mind of your more crypto-anarchist vision of the movement, and what it should be. do you have misgivings as institutional money comes in, and partners, regulators speaking at this year's events in a favorable light, does that make you uncomfortable? erik: it does not. i want crypto to be a big tent. i want most of the world to be
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using it, and most of the world doesn't think like i do. so i am glad people have diverse opinions using this stuff, building out in different directions. ultimately that makes it stronger and more resilient. caroline: thank you. erik vorhees, so great to have you joining us again, ceo of shapeshift. romaine: coming up, morgan stanley might be blamed for uber's stumble. a look at 2019 in ipo's is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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surveyed by bank of america merrill lynch bought protection against a sharp drop in the stock market in the next three months according to the latest survey. trump tower use to be the crown jewel in donald trump's empire, and is now one of the least desirable luxury properties in manhattan. it has turned into a fortress since its owner became president. the building hasn't been substantially updated in years, and trump's name is a big turnoff in liberal new york. condo sales have dropped. new york auction mega week, with a still life by pulses and -- paul cezanne selling for millions of dollars. ofled the evening sale impressionist and modern art. that's the business flash update. romaine: uber's ipo stumble
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might be morgan stanley's stumble. after the biggest ipo of the last five years, morgan stanley is now defending itself over the $120 billion valuation that uber couldn't deliver. joining us is bloomberg's investment banking reporter. so everyone is dumping on morgan stanley, but what did they do wrong here? it appears they got uber a pretty good price, so what is the complaint? >> exactly right. uber got all the money it wanted. $45 a share. the thing is now, a a lot of investors are pretty upset about maybe that it was priced too high. there are a lot of questions surrounding the ipo, and we won't really know what the reputational kit is until later. joe: so investors complaining are the ones who bought it? they knew the price they were getting and the company. they had the same information as everyone else.
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sonali: they had the same information. but there are a lot of investors, my favorite group is morgan stanley's own clients, who bought in in 2016 at $48, so $10 in the red right now. they bought in a little earlier. but at $45 a share, usually an ipo is supposed to pop, that's the expectation. so should it have been more conservative from the get-go, to bring in investors lower and built up anticipation in trading? caroline: is this also the issue and criticism? the longer these companies remain private, the more they tap basically public market investors, going to fidelity, to huge institutions. and when you go public -- sonali: that is maybe the most important point of the story. we will see a lot more of that in the coming year. the problem with this ipo, a lot of people, fidelity, wellington, high net worth investors were tapped in earlier rounds.
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to understand how many of them were buy and hold investors and not ones that would sell when things got rough, that was a sticking point. romaine: the morgan stanley bankers have a pretty big business in silicon valley. they are pretty trusted. sonali: they are one of the biggest underwriters of silicon valley ipo's. morgan stanley, goldman sachs and jp morgan is getting more of them, but they are the game. joe: going back to high net worth retail investors who bought in in late private rounds. is this going to be kind of the end of that? there's going to be other unicorns in the future, other hot companies people will be excited about. but do you think this idea of people getting really excited about some sexy ipo in a few years will not be a thing as much? sonali: that is a great question, and when i have been asking all day. [laughter] the thing is, let's see how the next couple play out. morgan stanley had a lot of money in palantir, for example. some ipo's this year, interest
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--- pinterest did do well. as long as you are not putting all your money in. goldman private clients got in at a lower valuation than morgan stanley, so they did a little better. but if you are getting in at 201 6 rather than a few years earlier, that makes a big difference on how much you get in the ipo. caroline: softbank and managed to embrace a bit of a discount. [laughter] interesting to see when the lockup ends. sonali, thank you. great analysis of the morgan stanley issues with uber's debacle. investors can't get enough of fake meat. buoyed by strong demand, seemingly your other alternative investment class now. since it listed, up over 200%.
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money flowing into all things vegetarian, even my favorite back in the u.k., greggs plc, a no-frills get it on the station baked goods kind of place. they have a vegetarian sausage roll that apparently sent shares flying. romaine: because they are offering a vegan sausage roll? caroline: yes. joe: a a few months ago it was revealed, weren't there in the media this was the end of everything that they dare sell a vegan sausage roll. romaine: they sell something here called a cream finger donut . joe: what is a pastie? caroline: basically like a larger version of an empannada -- empanada, coal miners would eat it. joe: we should do a recurring segment where he asked caroline to expand something, like u.k. politics or the house of lords. [laughter]
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♪ president trump insisting the u.s. economy is stronger than china's, but data and earnings from key chinese companies might tell the real story behind the rhetoric. let's bring in shery ahn. we have big important earnings coming up. alibaba.idu, tencent, they will portray, or the estimate is that they will do pretty well because we saw stabilization in the chinese economy. more proof oft whether or not that continues into the recent months. taking a look at the gdp chart on the bloomberg, you can see production, retail sales, fixed
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asset investments have been trending pretty well. last time we saw the numbers in march, they really spiked. of course there was some effect from the lunar new year holidays. we expect industrial output and retail sales to edge down a little, but not much. all in all, it seems the trend is stabilization. of that has been because the government in beijing has taken measures to support the economy, and we heard trump today in the u.s. say that if the u.s. fed did what the pboc is doing, we would be at 5% gdp growth here. . what have regulators been doing in china? shery: when it comes to the pboc and monetary policy, they have done a lot in their own way. they haven't gone all-out. fromw five tripler cuts the pboc since last year, but they haven't gone all-out flooding the system with liquidity. this week for example, we saw them carry out some of their
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tweaked monetary operations, mls funding of 200 billion yuan, adding to the liquidity in the market. but the pboc has been pretty clear that they don't want to flood the markets at this point. so they are still trying to bring some stability to the markets, but not do what they did a couple years ago when we saw the downtrend and go all-out, which could of course cause more problems down the line. caroline: how are investors reacting to all this? we heard morgan stanley say that emerging markets,, remain cautious on them. but goldman sachs says it might be time to buy in china? shery: pretty interesting, right? they came out and reiterated their long position on a-shares. the reason for them, we have seen tariffs announced, but they don't think that ultimately that will destabilize growth worldwide. the expectation seems to be for most people out there that eventually they will come to a
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trade deal between the u.s. and china. has, the fact that yuan weakened significant the and traders are eyeing even a 7 level against the u.s. dollar. that has helped some of the businesses buffer the impact of the tariffs. ahnine: you can catch shery with more on the stories on daybreak australia and daybreak asia, starting six, p.m. eastern. we want to bring you some quick headlines. capitalat double line talking about debt, saying he sees weakness in u.s. economic indicators and that the fed right now is "policy fluid." caroline: don't miss this tomorrow. alibaba reports fourth-quarter earnings before the bell. joe: and i will be watching economic data, numbers for u.s. retail sales for april. ine: and hedge funds disclose first quarter investments in filings. caroline: that is all for "what'd you miss."
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