tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg May 15, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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>> i don't want to paint the picture that you will get double digit returns from the equity market overnight. it's a very low bar for earnings but earnings aren't that high. you get you get about 4% in earnings. high-yield is a good trait to have here because it gets you to the high single-digit's. scarlet: we did finish in the green, not at session highs but still quite a recovery from this morning. caroline: it felt like a complete heading towards today's trading. a few headlines with mnuchin, trump talking about a delay in the auto tariffs. interesting headline coming from china. treasurychina's holdings falling in march for the first drop in four months. this coincides with a decline
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we've seen in treasury yields. there've been a lot of questions about whether china would want to retaliate. it might be counterproductive but it is out there. joe: it's a good reminder that china does buy and sell treasuries all the time and they don't necessarily affect the price that much. caroline: it says fournette selling with $12.5 billion in march. once again talking about how the domestic buyer when you have auction coming from the u.s.. scarlet: even with the recovery, we are down for the month. and the dow off by 3.5% s&p losing 3.2 percent. let's take a closer look at what was driving the action. abigail: it is interesting you mentioned the monthly performance. the yen is up about 1.7%. today, the haven yen up. this suggests we could see more
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strength. the yen has been climbing since the middle of april. investors were seeking that haven. dollar-yen, the reverse of the yen dollar. in blue, the s&p 500. investors went out of that yen, didn't need that safety. there is a range here. last year, as the haven yen did climb as the dollar-yen fell, each time we see that was accompanied by the s&p 500 falling. right now, the dollar-yen dropping down into the range, looking like it will hit the $1.07 again. >> i'm taking a look at tomorrow because the world's largest retailer is due to report earnings just before the market opens in the u.s.. i'm talking about walmart. the stock has risen some 7%. that has lagged the wider consumer staples.
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investors will be hoping for a bit of a boost tomorrow. sales as a key metric, expected to grow. that wouldinvestors will be hops 19th consecutive quarter of sales growth. online sales are expected to grow between 30% and 40%, driven by online items and online grocery. that part of the business is yet to be profitable because the company is spending to compete. they will introduce free next day delivery with no membership fee, a jab at amazon. margins are also expected to deteriorate. throw in the possibility of further tariffs and the fact that the company plans to list its u.k. assets. there will be a lot of questions on the earnings call tomorrow. romaine: if you want a peek into the industry highly susceptible to the trade war with china, life sciences companies. one of them, worst performer in
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the s&p 500 index today. they make spectrometers, diagnostic instruments. down after the second quarter results, missed expectations. management lowered the forecast. 1/5 of their sales come directly from china. more importantly, most of their growth comes from china. year-over-year sales quadruple but on a totally basis, they slid about 6%. we heard from other companies already in this earnings season that there was weakness in china and concerned that this was transitory. the main life-sciences index that tracks these companies has been one of the out performers through april of this year. that is when the earnings season started. since then, they declined about 8% members in the red lead largely by the declines. phil of jpwith us, morgan asset management and bloomberg's luke kawa.
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phil, you are saying something about this transition mechanism from trade war to the real economy. people want to quantify. not very big. you see stockmarket vale -- stock market volatility that may be associated with trade, it could end up that it is confidence. phil: i was thinking about that as well. when you think about the pullback in may, it has to do the fact that a -- that it was priced in and you have to price it out. if you go back to the second and third quarter of last year, when trade started to flareup, we had a 4% gdp number in the second quarter, three-plus percent in the third quarter. you put up another really good gdp number and that is when it becomes a political issue again. how far as the administration going to push the political issue? is it going to leak into
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economics? tom at the richmond fed saying that the danger is the u.s. can talk itself into a recession. i think that aligns perfectly with what phil is talking about. caroline: how it hits margins of companies with earnings. we are just getting earnings now from cisco. shares, $.78. the fourth quarter look, revenue up. that is a beat from the general consensus. scarlet: that gives us some fuel to extend today's rally possibly. think you so much for joining us today. that does it for the closing bell and for me. romaine bostick is digging in next for "what'd you miss?" this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde. here's a snapshot of how we rallied once again into the close. s&p 500 up 0.6%. macy's results show it is in a better place but a turnaround remains fragile as trade clouds loom large. some of wall street's heavyweights, where they put their cash in the first quarter, as hedge funds report holdings. we work, we live, we spent. how the startup is turning to financial gymnastics to keep growing. first, let's get you an update
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on the cisco earnings come out just moments ago. we did see a beat particularly looking toward the first quarter revenue. bigger than estimates. trading higher after hours. our analyst. >> solid guidance. growth forpoint 5% the fourth quarter outlook. cisco, due tois its size and role in the infrastructure of the internet just sort of a pure play proxy about corporate investment? of corporate spending from a global basis, it is a good proxy given their breadth and size. so, it is a good sign that f1
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spending is still fairly healthy. romaine: how insulated is a? company like cisco -- is a company like cisco? >> may have said in the past that a 25% tariff would impact them and affect the r&d investment not just for them but for their peers. they have been negatively impacted. they've been able to pass theirh the 10% tariffs to customers. let's see what chuck has to say on the call today. helpful is it for them that the u.s. is pushing back against huawei? cisco, it is really not helpful. if you look at cisco's china presence, it is only 2% of global sales.
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not going to see -- you have zero percentage of sales from huawei in the u.s., or very little of it, and vice versa for cisco. in the broader scheme, the big battleground will be in europe. huawei goo and head-to-head. it looks as if the european numbers for cisco have been fine. joe: what are you most interested in hearing about on the call? cisco sometimes make new -- makes news on their call. what would you ask? >> the biggest focus is going to be the tariff impact going into results. since they are passing along some of the tariffs to their customers, how much of the growth outlook is related to the tariffs overall? i don't think they were able to pass along all the tariffs, but the gross margin, they were able
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to absorb that pretty well. gross margin seemed fine. company that is a was trying to transition a little bit away from just being hardware, more into the servicing side. >> i have to take a closer look at the numbers. i'm sure the numbers will probably come out in greater detail on the call, but that has been trending fairly well. the next thing i can say software and services, it is only 35% of daily revenue. joe: woo jin ho of bloomberg
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turnaround as the trade war troubles the market. proposed u.s. tariffs might hit the department store chain. let's bring in sarah hall sick, bloomberg a piston -- bloomberg opinion columnist. showing numbers that are decent, the turnaround not terrible, but concerns for dealing with the trade. >> it puts them on pace to meet their guidance for the year. a sickly what the ceo said on the conference call today was that this most recent batch of proposed tariffs on $300 billion worth of goods including clothes, shoes, jewelry, they have not based that into their guidance for the year. that seems like a real potential concern for macy's. romaine: that was an interesting comment he made on the call. this is also coming on a day where we had some retail sales numbers at the government level that seem to suggest that the
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consumer just isn't spending as much as we thought they would. how much do you think any kind of price increase could end up affecting that? think a price increase could be difficult to implement for a number of reasons. consumers are seeing higher prices basically everywhere. restaurants have been hiking prices to offset declining traffic and more consumer stable type stores, png, kimberly-clark, they've been raising prices on things like diapers, toilet paper. you have to save yourself, consumers already getting squeezed here and there. once consumers set in they are feeling it everywhere, that has to have an effect on discretionary spending like clothing. caroline: when you are looking at macy's and the entire ecosystem, data coming out today and retail sales was not painting a pretty picture in a backward looking sense. sarah: we saw the first really weak retail sales number in
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december and everybody said maybe this is an aberration related to the government shutdown. now in three of the last five months, we've seen a decline. have to start to wonder if the consumer picture is softening. enjoyed this goldilocks period based on the strength of the consumer and that appears to be fading. joe: walmart tomorrow, what are you interested in seeing in their earnings? sarah: focus will be on the u.s. comparables sales growth number. that will give us a good read on what they are doing in their battle with amazon. operating margins will be important to look at. investors have gotten a little bit more comfortable with all the investment walmart has been doing to shore up, but it's operating margins have been shaved. we're looking at any signs that perhaps the worst of that is over and there's going to be some stabilization.
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romaine: when you look at the thatk that -- at the tack walmart is taking, there seems to be a suggestion that walmart's infrastructure, where it has warehouses, give it a slight advantage to amazon. can you blend that to me> -- can you explain that to me? sarah: because walmart has this vast network of stores and 90% of the u.s. population is located within 10 minutes of walmart you can see how, for last mile delivery, that could be a real opportunity for them particular as we get into a speed race on things like next day delivery, same-day delivery. having goods close to someone's home could be an advantage for walmart. amazon simply doesn't have that for all the technology it has. will walmart investors have to tolerate more capital spending? bigough they have the
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physical presence, it is still not trivial to match amazon on delivery in any scenario. will this require a new round of investment? sarah: yes. walmart will certainly have to keep investing even if things like -- even in things like technology for its stores. keeping track of inventory and in an efficient way -- efficient way. one interesting thing is this new next day delivery that they have announced, they say that is going to be cheaper for them. the work they are doing on the technology side, where they are going to be locating the merchandise, this will be a cost savings for them. they will be relying more on ground shipping as opposed to airfreight and other things. romaine: thanks a lot. that is sarah halzack from bloomberg opinion joining us today from washington.
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speaking of retail, in bloomberg businessweek's extended podcast this week, vox co-founder talks about how he convinced skeptical investors to back his e-commerce idea. >> you can imagine 2013 where we are going kind of tin cup in hand, rattling it at all the big vc's around palo alto, a lot of them were like, wait, you are pitching e-commerce? talk about a boring kind of industry and one that is kind of outdated by 13 years. a lot folks would say, wait a minute, we made our last e-commerce investment in 1999. over time, the dearth of e-commerce investment in that kind of phase allowed us to thrive. if you look at folks really doing our class of companies,
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later growth companies doing what we do, there's not a lot around. many of thecause so early e-commerce -- i'm going way back to like the web and things like that. was there a little bit of vc ptsd going on where like maybe we can't do this? >> in their defense, i think every vc firm we talked to in the early days could show really real scars on how they got really burned by e-commerce in web 1.0. they all had those kind of names in their portfolio and most outside of amazon did not do well. >> i think about like a cosmo.com, pets.com, all of these names. the transition was going to be, people will go to stores, by online, and it is going to be great, we will make a lot of
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money, but we will have to spend a ton to build that underlying infrastructure. >> what is really interesting, in a recent shareholder day, i kind of read some of the transcripts of the recent investor day. i think one of the lines was like, i apologize to everyone who believed at the internet was going to be big 20 years ago. we didn't make money for you then but we are going to make money for you now. in 1999 and 2000, it was kind of a false start. all of the things pitched to investors and in general didn't really happen over the next five years, but over the next 20, the irony is that most of it came true. romaine: you can watch more of the bloomberg businessweek interview at bloomberg.com/podcast. you can also hear from the magazine's reporter and editors every saturday and sunday on bloomberg television and radio. 13fant to turn now to the
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filing season. hedge funds disclosing their investments. abigail doolittle standing by with some details. abigail: it is of course the final day that institutional investors with $100 million or more have to put in their filing. lots of big names just coming out right now including soros, icon, tiger. here,ing to our work verizon, alphabet, amazon, and others. tiger global has more than doubled. now the third biggest position for tiger global. in 21rs sold stakes companies, from a macro standpoint, early 13f's suggest we have telcos. of course, we are waiting for the big one. here's a chart of apple behind me.
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lots of volatility over the last year. right now in a correction. everyone will be waiting to see what warren buffett berkshire hathaway did with their position. caroline: let's get you a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. shares of tesla fell today. they reduced delivery estimates across all electric car models. tesla still trades at a huge valuation premium. beyond meat. the post-ipo rally resumes again today. shares rose by double digits to a record high. beyond meat got a boost from the news that tim hortons stores will be testing new breakfast options made with the company's fake meat sausage. new david in the rubenstein show, david sits down with the first non-marriott -- non-marriott family member to run the company. he has the real story behind
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many bars and room service. >> this is the shocking thing. we lose money on many bars and room service. both are expensive when you compare them to the cost of buying pringles in the grocery store or buying breakfast at the cafe. caroline: you can see all of that interview with marriott ceo arnie sorensen on the david rubenstein show at 9:00 on bloomberg. coming up, why crypto's winter is turning into a glorious spring. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the nation's top aviation regulator is -- regulator assured congress today that the boeing 737 max 8, grounded after two deadly accidents, will only return to flying after a government analysis shows it is safe. the faa is under scrutiny for not grounding the plane until after the second crash in march. a michigan congressman wanted answers about the plane's maneuvering system. >> what were the steps the faa took in reviewing the system and the accompanying training? i have asked three times and, with all do respect, i haven't gotten a direct answer, and the
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community deserves it. mark: we will get that answer for you. mark: the house aviation subcommittee chairman said, ", the faa has a credibility problem. south carolina senator lindsey graham is proposing to make it harder for central americans to get asylum in the united states. he's urging president trump to sign a deal with the democrats. a recent flood of migrants seeking asylum at the u.s. border would make the u.s. a less attractive destination, he says. he says the president's proposed wall would not solve the problem. he also says that it doesn't matter how many agents are at the border, the migrants will keep coming. >> they want to get caught. we are incentivizing a horrible journey. we are providing incentives the people to send their children through hell to get to this
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country. and only god knows what they go through to get here. acknowledges democrats would demand something in exchange. president trump is disputing reporting that there is infighting among his foreign policy team as his administration ramps up rhetoric and pressure on iran. trump's administration has been warning of unspecified threats from iran in the wake of new u.s. sanctions. the united arab emirates foreign minister tells bloomberg that iran is trying to paint itself as the injured party, but that is not the case. >> clearly, they have to address the fact that countries in the region, countries in the international community, have concerns about iran's behavior. for iran to alleviate these concerns, it has to look inward about what it has been doing,
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and address it. the foreign minister added that the uae isn't seeking to get into a war with iran. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by journalists and analysts in more than 140 countries. this is bloomberg. romaine: some breaking news on berkshire hathaway. we learned a couple of weeks ago that buffett's company had been buying shares of amazon. today we learned about 806 $2 483,000 shares roughly. that would be at the end of the quarter. we should also point out that berkshire hathaway also added to his position in jp morgan. apple still remains its largest holding. surgeitcoin's latest rekindling memories of the bubble. the chairman of a security exchange told us about the latest euphoria.
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>> there have to be bubbles in crypto because crypto is taking over the world and it is not going to just advance 5% a month without end. if it did that, people would keep turning it into a bubble. there's no way to go from a zero dollar asset into one that is worth trillions without massive speculation and volatility in cyclical bubbles. formerining us now, portfolio manager and founder of a crypto hedge fund. thank you for joining us. you have a new crypto hedge fund that started at the beginning of this year, so a very good time. the crypto moves and obviously bitcoin is up a lot, but they basically are all up a lot. there are days when they all rally and days when they all fall. there does not seem to be, as of yet, much correlation between assets. how do you find alpha in a market where most assets seem to move in tandem?
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>> i think what you are talking about is what we call cross coin correlation, the correlation of all older bitcoin assets other than bitcoin. high cross coin correlation is a sign of an unhealthy market. of that actually was north 0.8 earlier this year, which was just a sign of people not distinction between crypto assets at all. mid-january, that started to decline and it has been rapidly declining over the last several months, one of the main reasons we have had confidence starting about 6, 7 weeks ago, that the bottom was in for this crypto market. on a mathematic basis, people were beginning to differentiate. romaine: what about the correlation with other assets, especially equities? >> it is not a safe haven asset. people are speculating right now that one day it may become a safe haven asset. it has the characteristics to be
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a safe haven asset. when up bitcoin next to gold, there's a framework you can put around that. it is the six characteristics of money. durable, divisible, affordable, uniform, accepted, and scares. and you put bitcoin next to gold and that framework, it stacks up pretty well. right now, bitcoin is a risk asset, but a risk asset with a specific set of investment characteristics that become increasingly more attractive the more irresponsible monetary and fiscal policy becomes, because it is a hedge against that. i think what we have seen year to date, especially after the fed capitulated at the end of january, was this increased need from the world to have a little bit of an insurance policy against the largest monetary experiment in human history.
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caroline: i am interested by the fact that you said, flexible investment strategies. when the whole of the market has been rallying and bitcoin is on such a tear, how do you differentiate yourself? >> we talk a lot about risk adjustment returns, which is not a phrase that is uttered often in crypto, but a phrase that is uttered all the time in my prior career path. we just try and find -- look, there's plenty of risk that exists in this asset class as it is. but we also think that these crypto risk return of broadly is going to be really compelling over the next one, 5, 10-plus years. we differentiate ourselves by picking spots where you can just find really attractive risk reward opportunities. the way we make investment
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decisions is, through the framework of what we call our four foundations. qualitative research, fundamental valuation, quantitative tools. active management strategy on top of those four foundations. those four foundations generate a couple dozen signals in aggregate. but we try and do is take the preponderance of evidence generated by those signals and make investment decisions accordingly. joe: within the crypto world, there are people who say the future is bitcoin, some say the future is going to be a theory of, and some say the future is going to be lots of different coins and protocols and whatever. investmentnt -- if in a hedge fund inherently therefore a bet on the multi-coin future. >> it was really important for me to have full flexibility in our mandate in terms of what we could do.
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we've got the flexibility to put our entire fund in a long position. we can also put our entire fund in a short position. for thismany use cases tribute in ledger technology. money is a really big one and bitcoin is far and away the leader. profited --he value proposition relative to its status quo, which is gold, is more well understood than any other crypto values proposition. caroline: you talked about the risks and immaturity in a market. it is interesting you have talked about so-called risk whales in the market. today, bloomberg was showing that basically a theory him, one third of it is held by about 360 individuals. how do you ensure you are not on the wrong side of it in some way, these people who have great fortunes are able to take the movement.
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>> we have built a number of tools to help us understand that. the broad bucket i would say is what we call on chain metrics. all of this software code is open source. every transaction that has ever been made on the bitcoin network, the ethereum network, is publicly available and it available in real-time as it happens. there is all sorts of analysis that you can do to see large amount of crypto moving from one place to the other. much easier is it to set up a crypto hedge fund in the start of 2018 given all the regulatory and infrastructure that you need to do something like that? 2018 buildingl of the company to start in 2019. caroline: we thank you. come back again sometime. coming up, triton research ceo ubercaroline: wallace thoughtsn
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caroline: in the past nine officewework has opened locations in 36 countries. now, in order to expand, the company is looking to become its own landlord. joining us now for more is triton research ceo rett wallace . you do plenty of analysis of pre-ipo companies. we know that wework is looking potentially to come to a public market. when you look at stories such as these and the fact that they not only want to be the tenant but the landlord as well, how -- and exposure point of view from real estate. and: if you look at wework
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ask yourself, if wework is sort of like uber, how would we like uber if they had 10 year leases on all the cars, had to do all the operating and maintenance cost, and all the drivers were employees. would we like uber better or worse? wework said, we are not going to lease the cars anymore, we are going to buy them. wework has been a very confusing proposition given that it loses on the bottom line $2 billion roughly and makes $2 billion roughly. romaine: the model started to work against them. they were sort of running into issues where landlords were pushing back on them. real estate companies were saying, why would we do business with a competitor? >> becomes a credibility issue. they have model differences. they employ all the people that actually do the work in the buildings.
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it is not a marketplace where they have a relationship with the seller but the seller is not captive inside of their mousetrap. joe: so you don't buy their argument that a building could automatically become more valuable than it is today if you knew it was going to have wework as a tenant? that is their argument, that they will only building and it will be automatically worth more. uber is saying we will be like amazon. i don't buy that. it doesn't make any sense to me why that would be true. also, the dynamics that make a marketplace model like uber as dominant as it can be is that they don't have to own all the cars, they don't have to control everything. they just have to line up the passengers and then people will come to use their mousetrap to fill the orders. , can they own all the office real estate? can they own all of this market.
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it is interesting that we are using uber as the model for basically everything now. theipos should perform, second day of trading. why was it not done correctly? what went so horribly wrong? lyft was a very low rated company and we were unsurprised by that performance. uber is an average rated company and average rated companies should not break price at the open. what we do not yet have an answer to is, who are these sellers before the open, below the ipo price. 45, considering -- considered to be on the conservative side to give room to 50. over the course of three years
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from the end of 2015. atse people were not sellers $42. people who bought the stock at $45 the day before were also not sellers at $42. what we don't know is who are these sellers and what were they selling if the lockup agreements were supposed to prevent it? romaine: do you think this is an issue with morgan stanley or more with the size and scale of this ipo? rett: i think both in the sense that the size and scale was well-known which is why morgan stanley wanted the business. that is baked into the entirety of the job, to get this off and running in a smooth and production way. radically big opportunity that public investors on to take advantage of. our joke, when you have the hot mix, somethingr
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that should prevent it. romaine: we're going to be talking about this a lot i think over the next few weeks. that is triton mix research ceot wallace. withtime for smart sharks cash smart charts with abigail doolittle. lots of volatility. abigail: joining me today to take a look at the volatility and what it could mean next, steve from think of america merrill lynch. you are pretty bullish the last time you joined and i understand now you are still a little bullish, but with some cautiousness. steve: the weekly chart, are we cautious? got a pullback within a rising trend. we are overlaying it with 2011-2012. also the 2016 low, and now. we rallied sharply, that was
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after the aftermath of the greek crisis in europe. was brexit. this was donald trump being elected president. both of these were massive macro events people thought would end the world. we held the 40 week average. here we stand right now. we've got turmoil with trade in china. we are acting very similar to the way we did in past period. i thing we find support somewhere near the 40 week moving average. roughly32% replacement, -- 38% retracement. the mid 2012 and mid 2016 lows. why can't history repeat or at least rhyme? still positive. we hold those lows. i think we can go to new highs on the s&p and eventually go up to 3250 or so. vix intoinging the the the conversation.
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the vix ratio. online, s&p is testing report around 2800 or so. v is generalizing -- is generating here, going from below one two above one. there is a little bit of calm coming into the market. we probably should hold somewhere around 2800. there is one other thing to focus on. new 52 week highs. this is a missing ingredient for me. i would love to see new 52 week highs. snp can break through above 2950 or so. steve: great stuff, and i love the fact that you are still optimistic and mainly bullish here. caroline: we've got interesting breaking news coming from the administration. there was a new executive order that doesn't name any companies or countries but declares national emergency related to
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caroline: this just breaking. president trump assigning an order that could limit chinese telecom sales in the united states. particularly, we could see a limitation of goods from the likes of hallway to enter the u.s.. -- of huawei to enter the u.s. adversaries."gn it singles out economic and industrial espionage as areas of particular concern. as is lit -- is linked to h uawei. they say it is not related to the trade negotiations but that
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is clearly the backdrop. >> we recently heard fromnted te the u.s. market to do business, and they barred that move. even then, that really wasn't that surprising because we had the lingering china trade tensions going on in the background. suffice it to say that the reasoning here from the administration is espionage concerns. fccaw the decision from the on china mobile, it was also that the chinese government could use china mobile to exploit our telecom networks. huawei ceo remains under house arrest in canada over sanctions violations with iran and so forth. joe: how much consumption or purchases of this company -- of these companies' hardware is even happening in the u.s.? shery: bloomberg had this amazing piece of couple of months ago about how much huawei
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has really delved into the u.s. regional markets when it comes to telecom equipment sales, not so much in the mobile handset sides of things, but when you look at smaller towns of the united states, you can see that they go for price. is fact remains that huawei very competitive. if you want cheap, high-quality products, all of these american small firms have optedwe have sd in australia and japan, but nobody in europe has barred entry. romaine: thank you, shery ahn. for more on these stories, don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia starting at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. headphones -- hedge funds are disclosing the 13f filings. abigail: the big headlines have
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everything to do with berkshire hathaway. the news coming out that they of course added amazon. the size of the state, almost $861 billion. -- 806 to $1 million. soros fund -- 861 million dollar. the family offices back into stocks with 40 new positions. dell,ne: an exodus from it would sound like. romaine: "bloomberg technology" is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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