tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 6, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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paul: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." i am paul allen in sydney. shery: i am shery on in -- i am shery ahn in new york. paul: kerala top stories we are covering. the u.s. mexico talks, washington says discussions continue on immigration. president trump keeps up the pressure on china, saying he will decide on any additional duties after meeting xi jinping.
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global central banks are watching the issues closely and will react as necessary. john williams admits risks are rising. shery: let's get you started with a quick check of the markets here in the u.s. stocks fluctuating throughout the session, but they managed to end higher after a report that the u.s. was considering delaying tariffs on mexico. we saw the s&p 500 gain the best three-day rally since january. goldman sachs puts the probability of those tariffs on mexico at 70%. not to mention vice president thoseence has said tariffs are still planned to go ahead monday. u.s. futures down. paul: looks like a reasonably positive day to end the week. new zealand has been trading for just over a minute. futures here in sydney trading
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higher. different story as you had further west. nikkei futures looking lower by a third of a percent. that's how we are shaping up ahead of the open on the final trading day of the week. let's go to the first word news. president trump will decide on new tariffs after the g20 in japan. he will meet president xi before we weighing additional duties on $300 million chinese imports. the administration is prepared to step up the trade war despite growing opposition from business, advisory and political figures. the imf among others says this increases a threat to the world economy. way or the other, i will make that decision. i will be meeting with president xi and we will see what happens.
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i am planning sometime after g20. tochina is offering stimulus spur demand for cars and electronics as the trade war threatens the economy. the policies do not include any new central government spending, but include -- encourage local authorities to offer support to businesses. an earlier draft had suggested more generous stimulus. the wto the latest to warn about the dangers facing the global economy. robert krugman says escalating tensions over technology threatened to strangle innovation and splinter traditional links. he says growth will suffer if the world becomes split between those who follow america's technological lead, those who follow china and others who follow europe. a date forset up action edition hearings concerning huawei cfo.
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proceedings will open january 20 and are expected to wrap up by october. she remains under house arrest index over, accused of fraud. her defense team says the u.s. case against her is politically motivated and that cannot abuse her rights when she was detained and interrogated. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vice president mike pence says the u.s. still plans to impose tariffs next week as talks drag into the weekend. tariffsis point, the are going to be imposed on monday. we have made that clear to the mexican delegation. discussions are going to continue in the days ahead. joining us from washington
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is bloomberg senior editor justin. what happened in the talks today? >> mexico and the u.s. had delegations meeting in washington, both at the white house and the state department. think thereeemed to was progress made in the talks, to clearly, not enough satisfy the white house. shery: we are now getting reporting from the hill saying that have seen a draft emergency order. that would justify the tariffs on mexico. they plan to use that emergency order to go ahead with those plans on tariffs next week. how would this work and what are we expecting to happen, given that we still have not seen any progress on those negotiations? >> as a first step before implementing these new tariffs, the white house has declared this emergency.
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that emergency is something that would have to be put in place before monday, if trump were to go ahead and impose tariffs. we will be watching to see whether an emergency is declared tomorrow or not in advance of monday. paul: we have heard from president trump is saying that he will make a decision on when the two enact additional tariffs on china after the g20. is that meeting at the integer -- is that meeting at the end of june at the end of june taking on additional importance? >> it is crucial now in determining whether there will be new tariffs placed on china. the outcome will have a significant bearing on whether trump decides to move forward with those tariffs, as he has threatened to do. bloomberg senior editor, thanks for joining us on the latest developments on the trade front. still to come, we will have an exclusive interview with
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people's bank of china governor ahead of his expected meeting with steven mnuchin. first international media interview since he became governor. shery: u.s. markets moving whichever way the tradewinds move. cross asset reporter joins us in new york. tradingseen stocks all on these latest headlines. saying therump aid tariffs will get ahead, then a report that they won't go ahead, then it was up. how are traders taking this volatility? >> this is a day when traders wanted nothing to happen. a perfect day for the eye of the storm. today was a great day to do nothing and i'm wondering if the rather muted reaction in stocks suggest one or two things traders did not want to trade even on the upside. arentially, the headlines
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not liking the idea of a second front in the trade war. that has permeated into the market price. you look at a two day chart now. the negative one, it is essentially markets trading where it was before the headlines. they have a good handle on where it should be. paul: we have dovish sounds coming from the central bank. treasury rally today. it peter doubt a little bit. you have signs of safety seeking in markets. not only are treasuries rallying, gold is up for a seventh straight day. you have defensive outperforming cyclicals and one interesting etf i would like to take a look at is the anti-beta etf. it usually moves highly
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negatively correlated to the s&p 500. today it was up for the second straight day along with stocks. that is something we have not seen since the middle of the q4 selloff, when we had a little respite. that is another sign that traders are still bracing for what is next. shery: one stock we have been surging after hours. does that mean first quarter results justify the stock quadrupling the ipo price? >> i don't know if it justifies the valuation, a one thing is for sure, the financial performance was better than anticipated. revenue did eat analyst expectations for q1 and the full year guidance was high. on the conference call, the executives said this is very conservative guidance. they said that when they get these trial orders with companies rolling out their
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products different vendors, they don't really counted into their revenue forecast until that trial is completed and they have a solid booking going forward. a gives a lot of reason to believe that at least on the top line, there's more room for the company to rise. bloomberg news cross asset reporter, thanks for joining us. still to come, more on the treasury market. we will be talking to wells fargo's income strategist about where to find yield. shery: will they be smiles at this weekends g20? this is bloomberg. ♪
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i am paul allen in sydney. shery: i am shery on in new york. are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." paul: g20 finance ministers and central bankers are in japan this weekend. troublesome issues come to a boil. global economics and policy editor kathleen hays is in talks. kathleen, what can policymakers do in today's to make a dent in all these problems? >> they are going to see. the official talks kick off tomorrow afternoon, saturday. all kinds of special meetings will be happening before that. all day sunday, they are meeting. clearly the big question, and we won't just be watching headlines, we will be watching headlines from around the world.
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that is the number one item. it has to be a way forward, but how central banks and finance ministers are going to deal with the economic fallout. steve mnuchinary and the head of the central bank , that is ready meetings are being held. fore this paves the way president xi and president trump in osaka to sit down and make some progress. all of the other g 19 are just hoping they will not be caught in the crossfire. speaking in tokyo yesterday, the head of the international monetary fund reminded everybody -- she is looking for a cut of
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.5% off global gdp if the threatened tariffs are put in place. another big thing that will be talked about is taxing the digital economy. the europeans in particular are trying to get more money by trying to tax some of the tech giants around the world. they love focus around that as well. shery: this meeting getting central banks cutting rates or wishing they could. -- new solutions to boost does seem to be a step i step case-by-case, but we know they have to be commiserating on what they have to deal with now. a country example of that will do whatever it takes is the european central bank meeting earlier basically saying
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we are going to pull out all of his stops if we need to. the rate cuts are not off table. let's listen to what he said. several members raised the possibility of further rate cuts. other members rate the possibility of starting a purchase program. the extensions in the forward guidance. what a change. for the longest time, we were .aiting for a rate hike if the trade war ends quickly, maybe that will be back on the table, but for now, it is clear that before mario draghi leaves office, he wants to make sure that if this trade war starts spreading more broadly into the
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broader eu economy, he is ready to take steps. the fed opening the door to rate cuts that make it easier for the rest of the world. president of the new york fed saying what is still the fed consensus. the economy still looks solid, but they are aware of rising global risk. all the more focus on the u.s. jobs report tomorrow. that has to be another topic that will be discussed at these bilateral talks in the general meetings and certainly in the guests i will be interviewing the next few days. paul: global economics and policy editor kathleen hays. we'll have an exclusive interview with the people's bank of china governor. atting with steven mnuchin the g20. this is his first international interview since becoming governor. you do not want to miss that one. shery: joining us now is wells fargo security makes income
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strategist. thank you for coming in. let's get started with treasuries. we are seeing yields under pressure of gopal i can make out look -- of global economic outlook. could we see technical factors boosting yields? >> we think in the near term, yields have fallen magnificently and there are some very specific technical factors, including overall trends from foreign investors in u.s. treasuries that we could see a plateauing in the treasury rally. we could start to see yields rise of it. banks ared central very much in play at this point in time. there will be some interesting shifting dynamics within the treasury curve over the summer months. shery: what about the dynamics within the u.s. economy? we seem to be seeing a little divergence. this chart here showing us that
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we are seeing the manufacturing pmi nosediving. we saw those latest numbers. we can bring up that chart i just mentioned. we can see the retail starting to bounce there. take away from all of these economic convert -- economic numbers coming out? been at theway has consumer has been driving the expansion for the past few years. we dipped into what you could say was an industrial recession back in 2016-2017. the consumer came through that unscathed. one of the things we are looking closely at is whether the consumer data does start to deteriorate. we have had somewhat ominous retail sales numbers coming in much lower than expectation and the payroll numbers tomorrow we think is going to be key in terms of the fed assessment of the economy.
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the trade related side of things. when you look at the , doon on the yield curve you wonder how much of an impact qe and qt have had on it? >> you can't argue that qe has had no impact on the shape of and there are people who are put out expectations for what the expectations may look like. it could be much more normalized if you hadn't had central banks pegging that 10-year part of the curve to very low levels. said, there are specific things going on in the economy, which are making investors be a bit more cautious, particularly in the summer months, related to trade, related to liquidity challenges. the shape of the yield curve is a little bit harder to assess from a historical perspective, with inversion typically
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preceding recession, because we have had such intervention by central banks. paul: it is interesting, take a look at this chart on bloomberg. this shows the value of negative topping $11lobally trillion. is this something you are in? defined the idea attractive? >> as an investor, no i do not. from the corporate perspective, we think this is one of the reasons you continue to see strong inflows into u.s. investment grade corporate private throughout the course of 2019, even amid the via -- the volatility. the has been steady demand and i think that comes down to the absolute lack of yield within the global scheme at this point. shery: how would you position going into this summer as you expect the seasonal technicals to kick in?
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>> we have been advocating a bit more>> of the strategy. we're still constructive on corporate credit but heading into the summer months, you have technical and compounding the , yous related to trade have to position for more defensive carry. curvefocused on yield positioning. we are expecting flattening within the curve. u.s.ke the front end of investment trade, corporate credit. we have been believers in the story, but we do not think now is the time to be extending your duration. --are more constructive on than high yield. we have a positive view of corporate credit. shery: what are your expectations on issuance? >> issuance is a wildcard. we have expectations to decline over -- year-over-year. they are beholden to investor
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demand. we have seen pockets were investors have been willing to press back on issuance meaningfully. overall, whether it is a much lower term structure of yields, we expect that is going to be down year-over-year. wells fargo securities fixed income strategist, thanks for joining us. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can go to dayb on their terminals. it is available on mobile in the bloomberg app. customize your settings so you only get news on the industries and assets you care about. this is numbered. ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." let's get a quick check of the latest headlines. google is buying cloud data analyzer looker for $2.6 million to help clients manage data. the deal is google's biggest since it bought nest labs in 2014 and comes up -- it helps companies assess the cloud. it may face extra scrutiny under a doj antitrust investigation. is close to being bought by a new york hedge fund. the retailer has had interest distributors.e we are told the offers the front runner in the race. it has been struggling to compete with online retailers in recent years. shery: the german government is set to be investigating the
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chance of a tie up between a struggling commerzbank and a dutch bank. we're told ministers discussed the idea last month with one issue being the headquarters in germany. the two banks rose after bloomberg published the story the later closed in the red. paul: there will be no tall tales in the nba. italy is looking at ways to ensure that all of its players are exactly as tall or short as they claim to be. players often fudged their own height numbers to give themselves an advantage in selection draft. the expansion of legalized sports betting is putting pressure on leaks to make sure their player data is accurate. coming up next on daybreak we are talking infrastructure investment of $90 billion aussie superfund. this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: 8:30 a.m. friday here in sydney. market open 90 minutes away. futures pointing slightly higher. markets in the u.s. closed in the green. shery: we are at 6:30 p.m. in new york. you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." let's get the first word news. -- reports from washington say there is no agreement on how to stem the flow of migrants heading toward the u.s. border. mexican officials want more negotiations, saying there may not be enough time before monday's tariff deadline. accepts that mexico is
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taking talks seriously, but says it is most likely that punitive action will happen monday. tariffsis point, the are going to be imposed on monday. we made that clear. discussions are going to continue in the days ahead. shery: global central banks say there -- >> global central banks say they are monitoring the economy and will react as necessary. outlook for the u.s. remains solid betting knowledge that risks are rising and there are expectations that rates will come down. he stopped short of endorsing a cut but reinforced openness and flexibility. >> in the pre-2008 era, inflation was a major concern for the public and central banks alike. while i will always be vigilant about inflation that gets too high, it is inflation that is too low that is a more pressing
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problem today. >> as the euro outperformed most major peers after the expressed optimism in the economy and said it would act to support growth. mario draghi extended the bank's pledges to keep in -- to keep rates at record lows while exploring how to offer banks more cheap cash. the euro touched its highest level against the dollar since mid april. the reserve bank of india cut its rate and indicated more to come as policymakers try to boost a slowing economy. the r.b.i. momentum has weakened significantly as it lowered the purchase rate by 25 basis points. bond deals fell to their lowest in 18 months, but that was not enough to boost investor confidence. as far as we're concerned, our position is driven by the growth concerns in the r.b.i. and in the inflation and growth
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in that order. >> global news 24 hours a day more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you so much. let's get a check of how markets are setting up for the open in asia. we are seeing nikkei futures under pressure, down a quarter of a percent. in japan, stocks fell in the last session. we saw the yen strengthening. a few markets closed in asia, including china and hong kong. take a look at these futures down 1/10 of a percent, coming back from memorial day holiday. we have seen the south korean economy taking a hit. paul: we have had new zealand trading for over half an hour in the market has turned negative,
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off the fifth of a percent. we have aussie futures pointing in the green, a little under half of a percent. it will be interesting to see if that changes when we get to the reset which happens 15 minutes before the market opens. that is one to keep an eye on. westerly's pension fund scaling back expectations for u.s. infrastructure investment. the $90 billion superfund has been closely monitoring washington's on again off again push to revive infrastructure. political opposition to asset sales hardening, can westerly be part of the plan? we turn to the iphone boss. why is infrastructure proving such a hard sell? on the surface, it seems to be a no-brainer. is it really just assets? >> there has been discussion around a $2 trillion plan. there is a lot of realistic
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expectations that may not be the high, but it will be significant. that we see stress this as being a significant opportunity. it is a challenge, because there is an economic and social imperative. the politics are challenging, but there is support so we remain optimistic. paul: what do you do to overcome this logjam? >> a key thing is case studies. the u.s. is a land of case study learning. we are tremendous case studies in the u.s. and around the world where pension fund capital is good in terms of investors and it has created an improvement in living standards, invested in the long-term effectiveness of these assets and it has had politicians reelected. we are talking about how these case studies have been in existence for over 20 years and have benefited societies, users and of infrastructure and
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elected officials. those methods has been the asset recycling model. explain that to us. that is a model that has created a lot of jobs and growth. it is where there is a partnership between government and private sector. there is a lease of an exact thing -- of an existing asset. they are will hundred percent committed to being recycled back into building new social and economic infrastructure and the government and the private sector work together to create a much more productive, effective, usable infrastructure. it has been really good for investors, really good for societies, created jobs, created growth and had political officials reelected. shery: could that model work in
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the u.s.? you see any opportunities for yourself? >> i think there is everywhere -- every reason it could work in the u.s.. there is an imperative to not just use government funds, but to try to attract private sector capital. from that perspective, absolutely. we also believe it could work, because it is a new form of e3. what we call a pension public partnership. it thinks and acts differently, certainly in the interest of its investors but also in the interests of the communities being served. what you'rerom saying, it sounds like you have a pretty intensive lobbying campaign going on. is that fair? >> lobbying has many different connotations, but we are definitely engaging with republicans, democrats, federal, state, other key influencers. the reception has been very
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positive. arest say that there strong preconceptions against p3's and we understand that, but when we explain how the pension public partnership works and what it has done, jobs that have been created, the genuine partnership between government and pension funds, it really has been well received. frankly in some parts of the united states, it is beginning to get traction. paul: i want to get some comment about the local market in australia now that the election is behind us. the government is back with a small majority. how is the infrastructure set up in a show you compare? >> -- the infrastructure set up in i still you compare -- in a ustralia compare? lull in is a bit of a activity in infrastructure
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investment from a private investors perspective. we would like to see a reinvigoration of pension public partnership arrangements in australia and we think that would be good for the economy. frankie at a time when we need more than monetary policy to be driving growth in jobs and gdp. are seeing huge infrastructure needs in countries such as india, the u.s., china, japan as well. any opportunities there? active in pretty much all major oecd markets. one thing we do look for when we enter into geographies around the world is first and foremost, the enforceability of contract. that is paramount for us, because we intend to be investors in these assets in these countries, in these enterprises for a very long time. we are very active, but in being
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active, we are conscious of ensuring that the enforceability of contract is something we can be dependent on, given the long-term that we represent. shery: we are seeing macroeconomic changes, whether it is trade tensions or dovish central banks. does that affect you? >> it does. the level of geopolitical influence is really very concerning for us. i am sure for many others around the world. in that sense, it is a risk, but i must also say, looking at the other side of the coin, it is an opportunity, because as growth starts to come off with things there are wars, politicians and policymakers looking at other macroeconomic policies and that is worth things like infrastructure investment potentially increase and where we can play a greater role. it is inspired by risk, but it does present opportunity and we
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paul: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." let's check in on what we should be watching as trading gets underway. advising to boost hedges amid turmoil in global markets. what traits are they recommending? >> it is worth listening to at the moment. as you said, they already got into a defensive posture a couple months ago and that served us pretty well in may.
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ultimately, it goes back to this disconnect you are seeing between bond and the equities market. as you can see here, gtv library, the difference between what the bond market is telling us, they are saying you should continue to lift your exposure to government bonds, yields, suggesting a world that is still in turmoil while stocks continue to trend close to record highs. they say what you are really seeing from this big drop in five year treasury yields, you have had 100 basis points drop, that is basically signaling to them that you have got a 50% chance of a recession happening. you want to be lifting exposure to government debt and not playing too high and the risk framework. given the outcome for for trade is still very cloudy. the outcome for the economy is very testing as well. in that scenario, you want to
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dial down your risk and get more hedges. shery: is that why golden sachs is -- goldman sachs is recommended the yen as a safety play? >> in one sense, it is part of the overall sense of what the trade war does. in particular, the goldman affects strategists who are saying the yen and swiss franc should benefit is because of what you see as a slowdown in investment of cross-border flows in the economies. japan and switzerland are particularly exposed in the because there can shooting in their economy. those currencies should do well, and on the flipside, places like australia should do relatively poorly. something of an
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safe haven, but not as much as some people have expected. we have started to see hedge funds. as you can see, diving back on that but there is the appetite for safety during the turmoil ahead will continue to support further. --l: bloomberg's mobile local -- global markets editor. he can check out the chart have been talking about. go to gtv on the bloomberg terminal. shery: let's get more insight from ftm financial chief economist to joins me in the studio to talk everything about the u.s. and global economy. let's start with uncertainty over trade. we could be seeing more tariffs on mexican and chinese goods. inflationfects pressures, how much of a conundrum will it be for the fed? >> ok, i think when it comes to inflation, the right way to
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think about it is, it is a tax increase. you get this one-time increase in prices, but you also get a drop in real economic activity and over the longer run, it is actually deflationary. which is a weird thing to think about, but, look at what last year's tariffs did. we saw inflation rise up until july. the peak was one month after the first chinese tariffs went into effect. then, inflation faded over the rest of the year. . expect more of the same what these tariffs do is ramp up the risk of recession. they have caused a significant slowdown in internal demand here in the u.s. of things like consumer spending, residential investment, the real drivers of growth, they were only growing at 1.3% the first quarter.
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second quarter, we are tracking the same thing. this is much weaker than optimal. shery: the fact that we saw the private jobs numbers really disappoint, does that spell trouble ahead? this gtv chart showing the data plunging below that average that we have seen in the past few years. of course, we have the labor report tomorrow coming out as well. does this spell trouble when businesses are reluctant to hire more people, as they are so concerned over trade uncertainty over the business and merriment? >> absolutely. that was the weakest adp employment number since the negative numbers stopped after the great recession in 2010. this is like a decade low weakness. won't beid it probably picked up by the bls, and that is because, in the adp, it was small businesses letting people go that weakened the number.
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the biggest companies actually added. the bls is not very good at measuring small business employment. i suspect tomorrow's number will but the reality, adp actually mails checks to people. that is how they measure employment. if they say small business let 77,000 people go, which is what they said, it probably actually happened. is there a popular to blame recessions on fed policy, but to be fair, the fed has been dealt a dud and in terms of trade disputes. >> absolutely. here is the thing about being a central bank. for the to make policy environment you find yourself in. we have known about these china tariffs for over a year. the china tariffs trade talks collapsed over a month ago.
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morningliams said this that the yield curve is not some magic crystal ball telling you about recession. that is absolutely right. what it does tell you is whether the fed rate policy is appropriate. we have been letting the fed know they have got rates set to sinceince -- set too high the beginning of the year. i think the way the fed can get is, they can talk about being more flexible now that they have reached neutral. factcan talk about the that inflation is 50 basis points under target. they can talk about making an adjustment and if the trade picture improves, if we reach a deal with mexico, which i think is more likely, or with china, unlikely, the miracles can happen, then they can rates back up again. in terms of the trade
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tension with china, both sides painted themselves into a corner to some extent. >> i think that is exactly right. trump framed this whole discussion as china is stealing from us, we have to stop that. president xi framed the discussion as this is more of 100 years of the outside world china to tell us what to do and we don't give in to that pressure. man cansee how either gracefully step down from that position. either one, it would be a terrible loss of face. and i think a loss of political clout. our view is that there is no deal. not until the elections anyway. that gives us enough time to change the dialogue a bit. shery: given that this could drag on for a while, how much of good news is it that ecb policy remains supportive? done aink the ecb has
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good job of being flexible. they made a mistake last year. they signaled an end to easing and prepare the markets for tightening, then they realize it was a mistake. inflation is below target, falling from where was. growth has been disappointing. then down forp, 2020. it is the right thing to do. shift policy, make your mistakes, move on. , theys tricky for them just don't have a lot of tools left. shery: right. they have gone as low as they can, which might be for many central banks. >> i think in europe, what we have seen, is these negative restrictingtually credit activity. if you are small business, it is
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difficult to get him -- get a loan. if there is any risk, it is too dangerous. big companies have access to credit, but small companies, it is difficult. shery: thank you so much for joining us. of our exclusive interview coming up later today with people's bank of china governor, his first international media interview since becoming governor. it comes ahead of his expected meeting with treasury secretary mnuchin at the g20. this is bloomberg. s is bloomberg.
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flash on lines. on the hunt for acquisitions abroad. the president of the company is looking to buy banks and assets that generate stable returns. biggestif japan's lender can keep hitting income targets. they will have almost $15 billion available for share buybacks over the next four years. shery: beyond meat has given investors a first look inside the company since last month's ipo. the shareholders find the numbers appetizing. willforecast that sales exceed $210 million, topping analyst expectations. beyond meat expects to break -- while the market has projected a loss. silvio berlusconi's latest evaluating options in spain. the largest commercial
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broadcaster may combine the unit with the parent company as it seeks ways to bulk up the face of rising competition. toigger footprint as a way compete with netflix and other companies pushing into the european union. shery: plenty still ahead in the next hour. the u.s. business councils michael joins us to look ahead to the g20 finance ministers meeting as trade tensions ramp up. paul: that is almost it for "bloomberg daybreak: australia" this morning. trading in new zealand is underway. we are one hour away from the opening in australia. futures pointing higher by a shade under .5%. that may change once we get to the open. aussie dollar right now is holding steady. we have the kiwi dollar at 6624.
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paul: good morning. i am paul allen in sydney. we are under one hour with from the australian market open. shery: good evening. i am shery ahn. welcome to "daybreak asia." paul: our top stories this friday, no agreement yet at the u.s.-mexico talks. washington says migrant discussions continue but still intends to impose tariffs on monday. president trump keeps up the pressure on china, saying he will decide on any additio
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