tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 12, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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paul: welcome to "daybreak australia." sophie: we are counting down to asia's major market open. ♪ paul: here are the top stories we are covering in the next hour -- hong kong's chief executive calls for calm your protesters say they will be out on the streets until the extradition bill is dropped. aboutons are being asked
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hong kong's future. u.s. inflation comes in below forecast. wilbur ross has advice for the fed saying they were wrong on prices and rates. >> let's get started with a quick check on how markets closed the window session. inflation-expected spurring speculation of a fed rate cut, but at the same time, continued rate tensions. the s&p 500 fell .2%. we had chipmakers, some of the biggest losers, not to mention that the energy sector was the biggest loser, as we saw oil .rices fall to a four-month low the nasdaq experiencing its biggest fall in about a week. up.s see how we are shaping sophie: taking a look at on aussie jobst data, plus valuations now at
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september 2016 highs. checking in on the euro, which is back below 113 against the dollar -- 1.13 against the dollar. trump threatens sanctions on europe over a germany-russia gas pipeline. the euro-yen has declined 2.7% this year. thank -- b of a short of the pair on concerns trade tensions will get worse before they get better. paul: thanks very much for that. let's check in on first word news now. --u.s. but just deficit budget deficit ballooned in the first eight months of the fiscal year to despite the revenue boost from president trump's tariffs. officegressional budget expects the deficit to come in around $1 trillion by 2022 and
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remain above that level for at least seven years. u.s.nly watched measure of inflation trailed forecasts in may, reinforcing the case for the fed to cut rates. president trump has been calling for lower rates and commerce secretary wilbur ross says the fed has simply been wrong in their approach. havere most economists been wrong, particularly where the federal reserve staff s have been wrong as they have been believers in the goesthat as unemployment down, inherently inflation will become a problem, though they have been simply wrong in that thesis. >> inflation remains below target in india as well. consumer prices rose a fraction over 3% in may from a year .arlier, matching forecasts
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it is the 10th consecutive month inflation has been below target, providing more argument for a rate cut. sales of passenger vehicles declined again last month. tens of thousands of people have been in vacuum did as a major storm bears down on a western indian state -- tens of thousands of people have been even back you waited. it will be the second powerful weather system to hit india this storm season. -- tens of thousands have been evacuated. news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ed ludlow. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks very much for that. we're just getting news that hong kong government headquarters will be temporarily closed today and friday. this is after the debate on the
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extradition bill did not proceed on wednesday is expected, and the city may face another day of street protests today. demonstrators are vowing to keep up pressure until the government abandons that controversial extradition bill. englerrespondent stephen is live in hong kong. how is the scene this morning? stephen: definitely a lot more peaceful than it was most of yesterday including yesterday evening when the police should move in to clear out thousands of protesters who gathered here again to protest this extradition bill. they did manage to have the legislators postpone a reading of that bill. no word yet on when it will reconvene to do so, but the police have pretty much cleared most of central out as people begin their workday here. paraphernalia of the protesters, if it's the yellow hardhats, of course, the goggles to prevent the eyes from stinging from the pepper spray,
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course, some of the other projectiles the police sent their way, including rubber bullets. also been bad projectiles coming from the police and a number of others, of course, tear gas sent into the crowd -- also beanbag projectiles. protestersng that 22 -- or participants, we should say, in these protests have been treated at the hospital. that's the latest number from hospital authorities. right now, it is an eerie calm. we do not know how late or how far the protesters will stay today perry there is a pocket of people still off to the right here on the hard court highway intoer, a main artery central hong kong, but for the most part, as you can see behind me, the degree is still here. most of the protesters have gone home. shery: what is next?
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what will break the impact? we keep hearing from the protest leader that they will stay until the proposed bill is withdrawn, so what is the schedule looking like now? stephen: well, they will keep the pressure on, that's for sure. if they will be able to physically stay, that depends on how forceful police will be. definitely the pressure will stay on, and in fact, the chief executive of hong kong was on television again, a bit well, on a local broadcaster when she said again they are steadfast in their of the bill, and she said, in fact, i have never felt guilty because of this. that's when she was asked if she felt she might have betrayed the people of hong kong. she said she does not feel she has betrayed hong kong, but
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again, it is a very emotional situation in hong kong. keep in mind, for the people of hong kong and protesters in particular, this is different from the 2014 occupy movement. they were protesting something the hong kong people never had, and that is universal suffrage. this is very different. this is protesting for something they have always had, and that is an independent judiciary, not necessarily linked to the chinese legal system, which, of course, is very much tied to the communist party, and that goes really to the roots of the issue, of the young people. thatwant to have independent judicial system that they have long enjoyed, the british common law system. the legislative council members who support the extradition bill point out that lots of countries have shouldn'tn bills, why hong kong? what exactly is the concern of the protesters?
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here 30 i have been years and seen the role hong kong has played. they have argued that this is a place and has long been a place of refuge for the dissidents who are willing to speak their mind against beijing and hong kong, given its independent status on the judiciary, was a place that these people could feel in saying that there was a separate rule of law. some european nations do have extradition treaties with china. it is very different here. very close to china and a very different situation with the dissidents. shery: a key question was how washington would react. this is what president trump had to say about the protest. >> when you look at this illustration, they said it was one million people. that was as big a demonstration as i have ever seen. i hope it works out for china and for hong kong.
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of course, hong kong enjoys a special trade relationship with the u.s. is there any threat to it as we continue to see pressure on capitol hill for president trump to act? yes, we have heard from nancy pelosi and other congressional leaders and washington, d.c., voicing concern over what is happening here and if they need to review their relationship , as well as we are hearing from the u.k. they are watching this quite closely. we had some comments from u.k. leadership. i will get to those in the next hour, but generally, the world is watching and they were watching late into the night. you can see behind me right now, the garbage trucks are on cue, coming in and cleaning up the last remnants of the protest yesterday. still no indication of if it will pick up steam again today. thank you so much.
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that is our chief north asia correspondent. also very much a question when it comes to how the china-u.s. trade tensions develop. nosident trump saying he has deadline for china to return to the trade talks, other than the one in his head. let's see where things stand now with our washington reporter, greg sullivan. does anybody else know what the president is planning at this point? the: according to president, no. only he knows the deadline. today speaking of press conference, he said he had no deadline. of course, we know president trump has an upcoming meeting , and a lot ofg people have been looking at the meeting as a source of what could potentially restart the inks or be the next phase these trade talks. president trump a couple of days tariffsatened to raise on even more chinese goods, but today he is saying there is really no deadline or that he is
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the only one who knows what it is. other white house officials have cautioned that this upcoming meeting will not be the end marker or will not be what solves the ongoing trade dispute . that looks to linger on a bit longer, but it could be a moment for the sites to restart negotiations. one final thing -- president trump added that any deal could not be less than what they had already negotiated when it looked like they had a tentative agreement before talks broke down. paul: president trump talked about his agreement with mexico. warning of additional measures of the current deal does not work out. what do we know about those measures? >> president trump set of migration is not cut the way he wants to see it, there will be a second, much tougher phase for mexico. it's largely unclear what this other backstop was. actingd yesterday, the
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white house chief of staff prefer to this backstop agreement. president trump of course yesterday waving if he's a paper in front of reporters at the white house saying it wasn't annexed to the deal. deal fored to be a changes on the mexican side of the agreement was not cut to washington's liking. it does seem like the administration wants a pretty aggressive cut in the flow of immigrants coming to the u.s. southern border, so unclear if there would be a second phase. president trump also threatening sanctions over german support for gas pipelines .rom russia what is this about? >> we have heard the president criticize them before not just over defense spending, but also this type line from russia saying it would leave berlin captor to moscow. threatenedrump
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sanctions over the pipeline but did not actually clarify which governments or countries would be sanctioned, so it seems to be disagreements, but it points to the continuing deteriorating relationship between the u.s. government and germany. paul: thanks for joining us. still to come, why senior party eight officials say australia's jobless rate could go even lower. shery: up next, trade war pessimism. we will get market analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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let's start with stocks. drove that the tech selloff? sara: if you look at which really drove the selloff, it was semiconductor stocks. you have the overhang of everything going on between the u.s. and china on the trade front, but there was not much in the form of new news today. ever core isi issued a note saying we might not see the recovery in demand until the second half of next year. many people were expecting that to come about in the second half a this year, so clearly disappointment. semiconductor stocks really across the board the worst-performing industry today. one other name you really cannot forget is facebook, once again dealing with privacy issues. "the wall street journal" reporting mark zuckerberg may have been aware of some of these problematic privacy practices. that's just another issue for facebook on the headline level.
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shery: let's take a look at the currency picture, the u.s. dollar showing some strength. this is a change. we saw a dollar rebound today. there is a bit of a question over if this is just a quick rebound or the start of a sustained move back higher. said on bloomberg that heon earlier s thinks we have seen this peak and probably still need a little more time to tell because there are very much two camps here, one saying the u.s. is the only place in town and others saying this just cannot continue. paul: quickly, to oil, after a brief cause, looks like the slide continues. sarah: the slide does continue. oil cannot get a break today. oil showing a surprise jump in
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crude stockpiles. bear market, down 20% since the start of may. on the one hand, you have demand concern is talks between the u.s. and china go on, but also you have supply concerns as well now. thank you very much. cio joins usent now. great to have you with us. in a broader market context, we saw these opposing forces of trade tensions, concern over that, but at the same time slower than expected inflation fueling those rate cuts. which should we be paying attention to right now? >> and neither. i think the market is fixated on the areas adversely affected by trade wars and there's a whole slew of companies that will benefit from the trade war. we always like to look where nobody else is looking because
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that's where the opportunity is. shery: where is that? >> i think the trade in faang is behind us. netflix, i mean all these companies that have , whereed extremely well there are lots of companies where there are significant risks and concerns already priced in and the upside is better than what the market thinks and that is where you can take money. not theing about conventional ideas that come to mind, but none of these companies that will be adversely the trade war. one of them is a customer billing company. gilead is not affected -- iery: a sonnet michelin -- saw that michelin is one of them.
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won't car parts be affected? made inest money to be the corporate market is in the aftermarket. slowdown, part sales that's good news for aftermarket companies because you replace your tires more often. the whole sector is selling off, but this is the exception to the rule. the beneficiary of new car sales falling. when bigger car tires get sold because we all want to drive suv's, it is great news for miles driven and tires sold. paul: today's declines in u.s. equities notwithstanding, do you think markets have already priced in a fed rate cut? thatthink so, and i think is a dangerous thing to do. if you look at the forecasting track record of fed futures market, they have been more
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wrong than right. classic recession forecast by economists. i would be very circumspect about pricing in a rate cut. i think the best thing to do was look for companies which have high dividend yields. i would say that you can buy companies that are in the consumer market but not price, dividend like the stocks. nokia, for example, has a 4.5% dividend yield and 40% of its ,arnings come from services patent licensing revenues unaffected by the trade war. you look at a company which software,omer billing media tgv plans, subscription streaming plans, all these pricing plans get markup located with more promotions and they make more money off of that.
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that is the opportunity in the trying to forecast what the fed will or will not do, but trying to think about the troop value investor. where can i find the opportunity to make money? because that is my job. -- trying to think about the troop value investor -- trying ue value about the tr investor. paul: what is your feeling about the outlook for global growth? >> i think it is very bleak. i think people are living on borrowed time because we have gone on a death binge in the world. the world over because of quantitative easing and fiscal deficit, we have a lot of binging going on, so i would position the portfolio toward net cash companies, which is what we do at every investment. the bulk of the companies we own our net cash. nokia, thesesoft,
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are net cash companies, and that is what i will be on the lookout for as the economy slows down and the highly leveraged companies get their comeuppance. shery: great having you with us and your insights. course, you can get a roundup of the stories that you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of "daybreak." you can customize your settings, but you only get the news on the industries and the assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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in an ipo and valued in at more than $6.5 billion. the company has sold shares above its already elevated target range. -- and faa safety official told a conference in germany that it is carrying out reviews of plane design and monitoring testing. is investigating a plane malfunction linked to two fatal plane crashes. shery: voters are being urged to the reappointment of the long-standing ceo after the brokerage was penalized for leaking information. paul: still to come on "daybreak
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to understand your best plan of action. so why didn't we do this earlier? life line screening. the power of prevention. call now to learn more. paul: it is 8:30 a.m. here in sydney. the market open 19 minutes away. in new york it is 6:30 p.m. you're watching "daybreak australia." the hong kong government says headquarters will be closed as they and friday following a day and night of mass protests against its controversial extradition bill. protesters are vowing to regroup and continue demonstrations until the government withdraws the bill. the chief executive has called for calm after more than 70
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people were injured in clashes with police. >> investment bankers and hong kong have absolutely no rationale to stay in hong kong. you would move to singapore or move your assets out of hong kong and what you will see -- the reason you are seeing the spike is there is a massive liquidity shortage in hong kong now. ed: president trump says he has chinaicial deadline for returning to trade talks. also had a message for mexico saying he will impose what he calls phase two, a much tougher phase of migration arguments. he did not offer details. president trump is also setting up his criticism of germany, threatening berlin with sanctions over support for a new gas pipeline from russia, echoing previous threats about chancellor merkel's backing for the project, he said it would
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lead germany hostage to russia. mighto warned the move vulnerablen states to poland. the falcon nine rocket took off from a military base in london. the canadian space agency says they will provide 250,000 images a year to help the emergency naturall with disasters. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ed ludlow. this is bloomberg. set forustralian stocks a flat open after barely moving in over hours trading. ; markets still competitive in
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the first five months of the year while target sales growth -- money management challenges normalize prospects. flipping the view to check in on -- the decline in coal prices may be a factor there. .ron ore miners in focus it is too early to say that rally, and it has raised its earnings estimate. jeffries has really been -- reiterated in plus, we are watching galaxy resources after the ceo said a drop in lithium prices is affecting funding for the industry.
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paul: thanks very much. to your point about australian stock markets, the i a sex is -- is looking-- the isx pricy. it has surged to levels not seen in more than two years. we do have a chart on the bloomberg terminal here that shows how valuations for aussie stocks getting to levels not nearly three years now. what has been driving the market higher and making stocks more expensive? >> a confluence of factors have then at play that have been driving up the market this year. two are quite notable. first of all, the surge in iron the markethas driven higher. we are also seeing the dovish
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slant from central banks all around the world. that sent the market higher as well. it raised hopes central banks inl cut rates and that will turn boost earnings. there is an anticipation that we year see a raise this lifting the market higher. expectations of rate cuts and tax cuts as well. does that mean the rally could continue into the second half of the year? >> there are signs that is possible. the expectation of tax cuts that could come this year, and also the expectation that the rba could move to initiate another rate cut. we are also seeing improved sentiment around the housing market this year. this rally we have seen so far in 2019, this is all happening amid a backdrop of a slowing
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economy. so far, the market has been able to withstand the sluggish economy we are seeing, but it remains to be seen if the market can keep it up this year amid that backdrop. thank you so much, our australia stocks reporter. president trump's rumbling trade war is taking a toll on the u.s. economy, a tepid reading may not be enough forward withed rate cuts just yet. let's start with the inflation report. what cues will the fed take from this? kathleen: they will certainly take a cue that inflation is not going swiftly back up toward the fed's target as they would like. prices, not the fed's main target, but they track very well, running just above the .ed's deflator gauges
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in terms of monthly numbers and shoppers, we can see the numbers fell short on the monthly gauge. the core cpi was unchanged at 0.1%. it was supposed to rise 0.2%. that let's look at the year-over-year rate because this is the gauge you compare against the fed target. the maineeing two of numbers on this chart. the u.s. core cpi, the white line running across the top. it came in at 2.0 percent year-over-year, but you can see it is much lower than it has been and people are hoping stabilizing apparel prices and airline fares would maybe help it rise again. our bloomberg economics team saying it makes it harder for the fed to make the case that this incline in prices or lack of acceleration means more
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deceleration. how can they say it is transitory? the turquoise line at the bottom, at one point, 6%. in terms of markets, what people are positioning for, the signal to the fed. in this chart is the best cpi number we got today. the headline number you will be looking at is lower, down to 1.8%. oil prices have fallen, but look what it did to the turquoise line. that is inflation expectation. donald trump has been complaining about the fed not cutting rates and inflation not near its target. commerce secretary wilbur ross, not an economist but a very successful billionaire investor echoed this saying the fed just has not realized, although they are looking at the question very closely, that you can have a tight labor market, but you do not get higher inflation. here is what he said. >> where most economists have been wrong, particularly where
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federal reserve staff economists have been wrong, is they have been believers in the idea that as unemployment goes down, inherently inflation will become a problem. they have been simply wrong and that thesis. as i said, the fed knows this is an issue. they are looking at it closely, watching thealso economy. before they make a step 20 rate cut, people say they have to see evidence they are really making a rate cut. call: seems to be a very wide expectation. view is forressive three. is that really feasible? kathleen: that is aggressive, but it is one of the ones being looked at closely.
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look at the bloomberg terminal with me quickly. it shows how the rate cut chances have been increasing. if you look at our fed fund futures pages, you can see what has happened. you can see the july rate cut that people are really betting on. paul kruger jones says buy stocks, by gold, and wait for the fed to make their move. >> long stocks, at least initially. probably short the dollar, long gold. those are -- that is what you do into the first rate cut. those traits are already in process. the question is how much further they will go. i think they will keep going a long way. kathleen: bottom line, fed is not expecting to cut rates in
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june. it is expecting to signal it. where are going to get a new summary of economic projections. it will be very interesting, though. if the fed signals rate cuts than one or two, i do not think it's highly likely they go much further than that, how is the market going to take that? a few signal rate cuts, i think people are already wondering what it will do to sentiment and how that will play through the economy as well. : kathleen hays in tokyo, thank you for joining us. kongxt, the scenes in hong on wednesday could make the u.s.-china trade war even more complicated. with a protest mean for beijing mean forhe protests beijing, washington, and the path to a deal.
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we're convinced of the justifications causing this , asic outcry, but sometimes a political leader, we cannot shy away from difficult decisions. >> there was hardly any consultation. wasdeliberation period companyhort, and the has not dismantled. the government has been managing the crisis has been extraordinarily poor. --let's say the legislature legislation passes in an unadulterated form. let's say the u.s. chooses to up recognizend say we hong kong as being china rather than a separate entity, then hong kong can no longer export freely to the u.s. that whole trade channel breaks
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down. how does hong kong maintain a currency peg when it loses easy access to the u.s. dollar through trade? paul: confidence being tested in a day andfollowing night of protest against the controversial extradition bill. protesters vow to continue demonstrations until the government withdraws the bill. says this may have an impact in the ongoing trade standoff between the u.s. and china. first of all, we want to deal in hong kong right now. how do you see this ending? we just heard from carrie lam,
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who is determined to see this through. it's also hard to envision a violent crackdown. how do you see this playing out? >> i would not want to be alarmist and i'm not predicting a violent crackdown as a base case, but back when the tiananmen bivens happened, most people, including the bush administration, did not think the chinese government would press ahead with violence. from the chinese communist party perspective, it will take -- it will do whatever it takes to remain in power. not predicting that that will be the case, but i think observers ine been a little too quick casting that as an impossible ability -- impossibility. paul: president trump saying he expected hong kong and beijing would work this out. he has a fine line to walk as he
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tries to keep the trade deal on track. >> absolutely. but has been said before, this is not an administration that focuses much on human rights. the president will not want to beijing's mentality. he knows they are on the defensive psychologically in terms of his recent approach to trade talks, so he does not have an interest in antagonizing them further. if a democrat is elected in 2020, we could see more of a return to the 1990's where trade and returns were tightly linked and the most-favored-nation clause was up for renewal almost every year and really put into question. shery: we have heard the trump administration was concerned about some chinese companies' minorities.ressing
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if the trade talks do not go well, could you see hong kong playing into the dynamic? toi think the u.s. will try maintain the illusion that their sort of is an independent governor in hong kong. it is really not in the u.s.' to end the preferential treatment hong kong receives today, so i think this crackdown on surveillance technology and the like will have more to do with trying to push back on china projecting its influence in third-party countries. i'm thinking of africa and other regions, particularly where china has been exporting this autocratic model and that is something they want to put in end to. shery: this is what the president had to say himself about were trade negotiations are right now. >> china is a major competitor,
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and right now, china wants to make a deal very badly. it is me right now that is holding up the deal. president trump, of course, also has said -- he has threatened more tariffs on -- if president xi jinping does not meet him. why is he personalizing the issue? >> i cannot tell you why he is doing it, but we have a model that analyzes president trump's past behavior in trade negotiations, and what it clearly shows is the idea that he is driven primarily by popularity ratings and the market performance is actually not only valid but has extremely high correlations with his past behavior, and i think that as nextarket prices in the terror hike and terrible imposition and potentially is popularity drops, if the pain starts to really hit in q3 and q4, president trump is the one
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who will have to return to the table -- as the market prices in the next tariff hike. i think it may be in china's interest to try to we had out even if that has drastic consequent is for the chinese economy in the short run. a will bet that giving him a good deal ahead of the election will increase his odds of reelection, which is not something beijing wants to see. paul: some of the rhetoric that has been in the chinese press has pointed out that china has endured far worse in its history. issident she -- president xi president for life. why not wait until 2020 or beyond? >> the basic idea is the chinese far moreill suffer than the u.s. economy. the real question is the popularity and the political angle, and you are right. will potentially
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suffer a slight drop in popularity as a generation that has not really faced mass unemployment before starts to those economic woes, but that will likely remain quite flat, whereas for president steadyit could be a incremental decline, which could really hurt him. paul: thanks very much for joining us. more ahead on "daybreak australia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> you cannot ask a four or five euro toddler to make money. i think it is quite difficult. if you look at tesla, it has been established for 16 years. neil has only been established for over four years. i'm sure we don't need over a decade to make a profit. paul: one of china's biggest brokerages plans to raise the equivalent of $2 billion on the london stock exchange, becoming the first program to use a new program. they plan to sell more than 80 million global depository receipts. the program launched on wednesday after months of delays. tiktokchinese video app hired a new head of strategic partnership.
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is beijing-based company worth about 75 billion dollars, making it the most valuable start up in the world. they face stiff competition outside china from facebook and snapchat. : a senior rb eight official says the rate of unemployment should start generating faster inflation, which is currently the lowest it has been in at least 40 years. what are the chances the jobless rates are slipping lower? >> the chief economic advisor to the governor a central bank pointed out that one of the metrics on which they base policy is basically -- you cannot see it. to discern what constitutes full employment where inflation starts to accelerate is by definition
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unknowable, and it moves around and that is what are the key metrics they are using. the tenor of that was they are really relying on something that is shifting around and certainly ,n the developed world accelerated unemployment has fallen since the crisis in 2008. tell us about australia's labor market. we had a strong labor market keeping the rva satisfied, but -- aw >> that's right. the rba is really trying to target about 4.5%. that's when they think it will generate wage growth and inflation. they are relying on a stronger load market. is about 16,000
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jobs were added to the employment in may. one thing i have noticed, because we hold an election, there could be a bit of a bump from election-related workers. paul: bloomberg news australia economy reporter, thank you for joining us there and of course, those job numbers for australia doing about three and a half hours' time, but they can be a little bit of volatile and difficult to predict. we do have you more ahead in the have plenty we do more ahead in the next hour. we will be talking about the impacts of the hong kong process on u.s. politics and policy. that is almost it for "daybreak australia this morning as we open.head to the market
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i kept putting it off... what was i thinking? ok, mr. jones... we're all done. i told you it was easy. with life line screening, getting screened for unknown health conditions is so quick, painless and affordable, you'll wonder why you hadn't done it before. so if you're over age 50, call now and schedule an appointment near you. for just $149- a savings of over 50%- you'll receive a package of five screenings that go beyond your doctor's annual check-up. ultrasound technology looks inside your arteries for plaque that builds up as you age and increases your risk of stroke and heart disease. after all, 4 out of 5 people who have a stroke, their first symptom is a stroke. so call today and start with a free health assessment
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to understand your best plan of action. so why didn't we do this earlier? life line screening. the power of prevention. call now to learn more. paul: good morning. we are under an hour delay from the australian open. shery: good morning. sophie: welcome to "daybreak: asia." stories thisop thursday, hong kong's government headquarters will be closed for the rest of the week. protesters on the street until the bill is dropped. they are being asked
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