after 20 hours of negotiations that have yet to come up with new eu leadership, and italy tries another budget. markets think twice about the g20 trade truce, touching records, but backing off. and it is unanimous. opec oil ministers agreed to extend cuts for nine months. saudi aramco is dusting off plans for its huge ipo. is it really worth $2 trillion? welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i'm david westin, here with lisa abramowicz. thatsteel is in boston for boston spectacular. lisa: we are looking at a live shot of the white house, currently proposing new tariffs of the european union. i love the way you put it this morning. you get more tariffs. alix: and in the meantime --

lisa: and in the meantime, preparing for that washington d.c. ceremony for july 4. david: and if you don't want to watch that, you can watch the boston pops. lisa: right now we have a rather muted tone in markets. nasdaq futures indicated slightly lower. in europe, a little bit of a gain. the euro gaining over the dollar. cave on the part of italian leaders to european union leaders on the part of their budget. david: leaders getting something done. lisa: maybe. for now. david: we are joined by lananh n guyen and michael mckee. even as we are speaking, we have european union leadership meeting once again in brussels.

michael: well, they are supposed to start meeting, but they may be watching our show. lisa: but slightly. [laughter] michael: they are struggling to come up with a compromise. germans and french seem to be working well with the dutch to come up with leadership for the various commissioned posts, but the italians and others in the periphery haven't cooperated. they don't want to just be a franco german domination of everything. but there is a new plan i find kinda fascinating. it would put the german defense minister in charge of the european commission and christine lagarde of the imf would become the head of the ecb, which would put two women in the top jobs in europe at a time when the united states has five women running for the democratic presidential nomination. we may be seeing the year of the in u.s. politics last year

spreading around the world. of course, they are german and french, so we don't know how that will go over at the meeting today. lisa: it is interesting right now that they are not getting that much done, but over in italy is a clear capitulation to the european union. there was some talk about deepening the deficit there in order to pay for some of the initiatives that the populist government wants to do. now they are backing off of that and we are seeing two-year italian yields fall below zero at one point today for the first time since may 2018. lananh: that's right. bond yields near the lowest in a year. the thing that is really interesting about this is we have to bring the ecb discussion back into this as well. if we have a northern european in charge of the commission, that might make it less likely that a northern european is going to make it -- is going to be the head of the ecb, which means the ecb might be less hawkish.

that means maybe the ecb will stay easy. david: at the same time, there was a report this morning that people around the ecb were saying not in july. michael: bloomberg reporters breaking some news that really moved markets this morning, that the ecb may take a two-step process. go no further in july than saying we are considering a rate move at our september moving, and then wait until september to see the data. a lot of people thought that they and the federal reserve would be cutting in july. lisa: a lot of people, really? [laughter] michael: yep. after draghi's last press conference when he suggested the ecb was ready to move. there are a lot of problems in terms of how you do it with the negative rates they have. process?art a tiering a lot of moving parts. it is possible that this is just a way to figure out how they are going to do it. david: back in the united states, we've gotten first review from the markets about this truce president trump and

president xi entered into. initially yesterday the s&p shot up, and then came down and people took a hard look and said, how much is really there. michael: there never was a whole lot that we know about. the market price themselves going into get exactly what they got, a pledge to resume negotiations. but besides the huawei component of it, nobody really knows what else they decided, if anything. this still could take months and months to play out. lisa: i am wondering how much of what we are seeing today is people saying not that much got done, and how much is fear about the new tariffs being proposed on the european union or elsewhere. lananh: the u.s. trade war is being fought on many fronts. the market was primed for some kind of truce before the g20. we got that, so people were excited for a minute, and then thought about the rest of the risks hanging over the economy. u.s.includes the

escalating trade tensions with europe. how long is this truce going to last with china? there are still huge questions. there'st the same time, not a lot of volume going on anyway, so these movements in the numbers are not clear how much is getting traded. lananh: there's suppressed activity. sometimes that leads to big moves. if we have a big headline and there aren't that many in the markets, we could see outside moves to the market. lisa: disclaimer, nobody is in the office right now. [laughter] lisa: i do feel like the big question here is you have seen bond yields go lower. you've seen stocks try to tick higher. they made new hives briefly yesterday on the s&p 500 -- new highs briefly yesterday on the s&p 500. how long is this ongoing rally in equities? michael: it isn't internally consistent over the long run,

but there's a lot of uncertainty about where the markets go from here. basically, you've got people pricing and as much as 1.7% on the 10 year. that will depend on the fed ratifying that kind of move. the problem is at this point, there's nobody in the office. volumes are low. we are getting through the u.s. as the, and we will see data comes in what the fed is going to do. that is going to set the tone for the rest of the world. david: trading day with the jobs numbers coming in, but we have a viewer writing in with a very good question. pmi's around the world are trailing off. at the same time, the stock markets are moving up. is the truce between the u.s. and china and liquidity from central banks enough to get this going? lananh: for now it seems like it does come about those storm clouds are on the horizon. trade tensions don't do any thing good.

there are signs that pmi's are starting to roll over, and that is not good. people are wondering when the next recession is. michael: we start next week getting earnings for the second quarter. lananh: real information. michael: second-quarter growth, the latest atlanta fed figures, 1.5%. that doesn't bode well for a lot of revenue. lisa: but of the meantime, we have the members of opec plus russia continuing their meeting in vienna, which brings us to our third story. they did all agree to nine-month oil cut extension. not surprising. interestingly, you are seeing oil come off some of the highs we have seen recently. this is very much expected, but there is very much a push/pull. on one hand, they are going to cut production, which is supportive of prices. on the other hand, they are

doing it because demand is deteriorating. what does that say about the global economy, as well as where oil is going? lananh: this is really my lheelhouse as an ex-oi reporter. the opec ministers met for 10 hours yesterday. that shows that while they decided on the production cuts, they are also wrangling internally in the back rooms about what happens to the charter. there may be some disagreement among the members within opec. they all agree that u.s. shale is a threat, but how much of a threat? how long will they have to cut? they are worried about declining demand in china and india. david: take us also through the dynamics in opec. it seems like russia and saudi arabia decided the answer before they had any meetings. lananh: the iranians are not happy about the increasing power of pressure within opec because the iranians and the saudis already have tensions. the saudi arabia and minister spoke at the -- the saudi arabia

and -- the saudi arabian minister spoke at the press conference, which is unusual. michael: reporter: the opec -- michael: the opec countries need higher revenue from oil prices to maintain their economies, so that helps drive what they are doing even at a time of declining global demand. we will see over the next couple of weeks whether or not we are headed into recession or just a slow down, but global oil demand is dropping at the moment, which works counter to what they are trying to do. lananh nguyenrg's and michael mckee, think very much. coming up, fidelity's head of global macro. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm viviana hurtado with your bloomberg business flash. saudi aramco is resuming preparations for a mega ipo.

last year the offering was put on hold, but now aramco has held talks with investment banks to discuss potential roles. crown prince mohammad bin salman on insists the ipo will take place in 2020 or 2021. i has a bush -- anheuser-busch's asia-pacific is set to begin trading july 19. to buypital is in talks research -- bain capital is in talks to buy kantar's research unit. david: thank you.

markets reacted with enthusiasm to trump's trade truce, at least initially, but analysts aren't sure what was accomplished. >> they accomplished what everybody expected, which is very little. >> did anything change? >> not a whole lot, to be honest. >> both leaders would like this trade war to go away for a while . we may be back in the position we were looking out at end of may. >> we got what we thought out of osaka, which is nothing would come out of it, so the markets are a positive. david: with us now is the fidelity head of global macro. people are saying there wasn't much in this trade truce, but address something you said in your notes. we see the s&p going up and up, yields going down and down. is this sustainable? guest: it certainly is an unusual configuration. if you look very simply at where

the s&p 500 is trading relative to its one-year range, it is at the 100% time-out -- at the 100th percentile right now. it is about as extreme as it can mathematically get, and that doesn't happen very often. usually they are kind of in the same place. the last time we were in this position was actually 2016, when the s&p was trying to break out of its range and the 10 year 1.3%ury had just bought at and ended up going to 3.25% last year. usually in this kind of scenario, the bond market catches up to the stock market. it wouldn't surprise me if that were to happen again. lisa: that is a very big call, actually. that is basically saying bond yields have to rise

substantially and there are trillions of dollars of negative yielding debt. that is the base case scenario that you are saying is likely to happen, more likely than a selloff in equities. mi getting that right? -- am i getting that right? jurrien: yes. if the fed and the ecb were not poised to ease policy again, i would maybe have a different opinion. historically when the fed has started in easing cycle, and we don't know if this is the start of an easing cycle yet, of course. we do know that they are likely to cut rates a couple of times. but when the fed starts cutting rates after having raised them, and the probability of a recession is low as it is today, when you look at it ofhematically, the odds

recession are only about 3% right now, when that has happened, the market most of the time goes up by a fair amount. we have to offset that with this whole trade situation. as your previous reporters said, basically nothing happened in osaka other than a cease-fire, but that doesn't make the two sides did any closer over the long-term. i weigh the positives of the fed possibly being able to reflate the system juxtaposed against ongoing trade tensions, which should drive the pe lower. it is a very binary, high dispersion outcome. that gives me fairly low conviction about really anything right now in terms of direction. david: we talked about monetary policy and trade policy. we have those pesky things

called earnings that we are going to start with. this chart shows revisions downwards as opposed to revisions upwards. how does this factor into what the earnings will be we get out of the companies, which ultimately have to drive the value of the stock? jurrien: earnings season is about to start in another week or so. right now when you look at the bloomberg aggregates for earnings estimates, the -0.25%sus is for about a earnings contraction in the quarter. generally, companies have this odd tendency of guiding lower and then beating numbers. the same thing happened in the first quarter. so the number may very well end up positive very marginally, 0% to 1%, but the risk is that, as you point out, there will be more misses now because trade tensions are taking their toll,

and the global economy is slowing. the pmi's are all around 50 or so, even the u.s.. the u.s. was the lone star accelerating last year while the rest of the world was slowing, but now the u.s. is slowing as 51, 52.h the pmi around there will be more misses then we usually see. last quarter we were looking at -4%. we ended up with 1%. a lot of that was taken from the next few quarters. this will be an important earnings season to watch. my hunch is it will be weaker than it normally is in terms of the kind of bounce we see during earnings season. timmer of fidelity investments sticking with us with that contrarian call. coming outcome of the world's most profitable company -- coming up, world's most

profitable company takes a step towards going public. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: saudi aramco moving forward with plans for its ipo. the oil giant recently had talks with a select group of investment banks to discuss potential roles on the offering. joining us from dubai is bloomberg's matthew martin. matthew, why now? matthew: i think now that saudi remco has got the bond offering -- saudi aramco has got the bond offering they did earlier this year, one of the most successful in history, the demand appetite for the market has given them the go-ahead for the ipo to try to get that process going again. a key part of what aramco and the country as a

whole is committed to as part of this process of trying to open up to foreign investors, and trying to reform the country and wean itself away from oil. it is strategically important that this deal does go ahead. lisa: some people were saying the bond deal went so well, why not just raise all of the money in debt markets? why have an initial public offering where they have to disclose information go through this process? that part does, something as a surprise -- does come as something of a surprise. think that helps make the case for the ipo. in terms of reaching the kind of valuation that the company has committed to before and crown prince mama been someone has talked about -- crown prince mohammad bin salman has talked about, the oil price recently is supportive of that, but if you

want to try to get to the sort of valuation that has been talked about, i think you need to see the oil price go about higher. there's a valuation question that is going to continue to haunt the company in terms of can they find a way to make sure the company is valued at that sort of benchmark that the crown prince has talked about. that is been a stumbling buck -- that has been a stumbling block in the past. ,he offering early on this year the push to get into other parts of the value chain, is to increase the value of the company. but i think from what we see from analysts of the industry, aramco is still probably somewhere off of reaching that $2 trillion number. to see how that will halt any further progress on getting this ipo over the line. david: you always want to get the highest price you can, but is there particular pressure on

the crown prince in the kingdom on its budget? what does it need to have in order to actually sustain the budget of saudi arabia? matthew: in terms of balancing price ist, the oil quite high. it needs something probably over the $80 a barrel. that doesn't necessarily feed directly into the overall aramco valuation. lisa: we are going to have to leave it there. thank you for those insights, bloomberg's matthew martin. coming up, the eu leadership summit happening right now. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm lisa abramowicz, in for alix steel. for july 4.oston

if there is a direction, it is marginally risk off in the u.s.. a bit of a positive tone in europe. msci index was down more. it has come back, but quite muted. if you take a look across asset classes, the story is in bonds. world.lower across the the greek 10 year yield dropping to almost the same exact yield level as the 10 year treasury in the united states. certainly copper lower as people ratchet back expectations for growth. david: now let's find out what's going on outside the business world. for that we turn to viviana hurtado, who's here with first word news. viviana: the u.s. publishing a list of $4 billion worth of the eu goods that could be targeted with tariffs. washington accusing europe of

unfairly subsidizing airbus sales. the eu has a similar case against boeing. iran's oil minister once the opec plus coalition to cut crude production anymore -- crude production even more. he spoke to bloomberg. >> yes, i think we can. >> we need to cut more. >> many more. [indiscernible] viviana: he also reiterated iran will resist against new u.s. sanctions. he calls them unfair and illegal. in hong kong, they are cleaning up after historic protests the legislature ransacked. debris and empty teargas canisters littering the streets. hong kong's china backed leader vowing to push back against further violence. protesters invaded the legislative council chambers. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm the vienna are taught of. -- on viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. david: we had dramatic footage last night from hong kong of the teargas and rifles coming out. today i saw some people speculating that maybe they purposefully let the protesters come in. lisa: carrie lam, the chief executive of hong kong, frankly getting a stronger position from here, condemning the violence. it gives beijing an opportunity to support the efforts of carrie lam to crackdown and say, listen, we need law & order. use some of the words from the hong kong protesters. david: as you watch that video, you have to wonder what that will due to to the economy of hong kong. if you are a major financial institution, you are not saying let's rush a lot more assets in their right now. lisa: although you have not seen

a full pullback. you've seen a couple of property companies, but banks saying this too shall pass. we move now from the drama that played out yesterday in hong kong over to europe, where there's a different kind of drama playing out in brussels. european leaders are back at it, trying to break an impasse over new leadership for the european council, commission, and central-bank. maria tadeo is on the scene in brussels with the latest. great to have you with us. the things i found him most fascinating -- the thing i found most fascinating is that you may have not one, but two women taking these leadership roles. maria: that's right. still leaders meet here in brussels. nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, but it does seem there is some consensus behind christine lagarde, the french head of the imf, to lead the european central bank and replace mario

draghi when he leaves at the end of october. that is if angela merkel manages to get a german nothing top of the european commission. that would be her defense minister, who is also a woman, see you would end up with two very powerful women leading the political arm of the european union and the monetary policy side of things. david: in the meantime, it seems that part of the drama is that france and germany think they are in the driver seat, but peripheral countries wanting a say in this as well. maria: that's right. that is exactly what just happy italian-- what the prime minister told me. we pay into this budget, so we need to have a say as to who becomes what within the european commission. at the same time, a highlight from the summit is that tension between angela merkel and the

rest of her political group, the christian democrats who pushed back against some of her positions, and said she poorly communicated some of her candidates and her strategy. this is interesting because angela merkel would always arrive to a compromise and was always able to get everyone in line. this time, we see actual real pushback from within her own political group. david: thank you so much for reporting from brussels. our is maria tadeo come colleague over there in europe. lisa: this comes at a frankly difficult time for the european region. you're seeing manufacturing data really come in increasingly negative. you can see german factory losses dragging down all of europe. joining us now from london, jeffries' chief european economist. jurrien tim are -- timmer of fidelity is still with

us. do you see this bottoming out at this point, or do you think the worst is yet to come? guest: i think the important point to stress is that we are seeing distortion from the u.k. supposed to leave the eu on march 29. we could see strong inventory building ahead of that date. that is true in the u.k. and germany, but also the netherlands. that's what we are seeing in the figures. there's a big buildup of inventories running into march, and it is being run off going into april and may. the problem is that means we are starting the second quarter with a very weak number for germany. the german central bank has have a negative gdp print for germany for q2. again overnight is weakness in the global trade cycle, which may be more about

em, but that is also going to weigh on the german economy and is pushing the ecb towards more policy moves for mario draghi leaves the building later this year. david: exactly right. that brings us to a report from bloomberg this morning that people at the ecb are saying they do not want to cut rates in july. we will put up a chart here that indicates the core inflation situation in europe. thus far, the central bank has not been able to affect that. is there anything the ecb could do as a practical matter to improve the situation? david o: at the end of the day they can do more policy easing, but we think the euro zone is ok. the service sector in the euro zone is doing ok, and you've got the labor market continue to tighten. we had some very encouraging unemployment data. we know that wage inflation has cap. financial conditions -- has picked up.

financial conditions more generally have eased. it seems to be the case that there is pressure building for something happening in september. we will be looking out for the language when mario draghi at the july press conference suggests rate cuts, but this is where we are. what we've been telling clients is the next eight years will be very different hopefully from the last date. we are leaving mario draghi with a very complicated monetary stance in the euro zone. lisa: we will talk -- we were talking earlier in the show about how you think bond markets have been overly bearish on this view of the economy, and that stocks are more correct in their assessment as they have been generally rising. does that stand in europe right now? the negative yielding environment is accelerating and we are getting bearish data on both sides. isrien: the european economy

not terrible, but it is not great. there's very little momentum. generally speaking, if a german pmi is in the mid 40's, you don't really want to get too bearish because those are the levels you generally see at bottoms. you would need bigger stimulus coming out of china, and so far all they've done is really stabilize the economy, but they haven't brought out the big bazooka, if you will. obviously yields are very low. it is all about that and demographics in europe, the u.s., and china. you take the u.s. 10 year at 2% and hedge it against either again or euro currency risk -- against either yen or euro currency risk, the u.s. is also yielding negative. so i think that is one of the reasons why u.s. yields actually are as low. but it is a question of term

premium, a question of what economies can do or policymakers can do when you have very high debt levels and very big demographic issues in terms of aging populations. really, other than growing your way out or defaulting your way out, which nobody really wants to do these days, there really isn't much you can do other than keep real rates as low as possible. ecb, and verythe low or even negative rates, is the way to do that. other than fiscal, of course. this is a unique problem for europe. they don't have a path toward fiscal stimulus in the same way the u.s. or japan does. david w: i want to raise something we raised earlier in respect to europe. the 10 year bond yield is going down and down. at the same time, if you take cyclicals versus defensives, they are going up. what does that tell you about

the market reaction in europe? david o: i think the market still is buying the view that there will be a recovery in the euro zone in the second half of this year, and policy easing will bear fruit. although it is all very gloomy when you look at the euro zone in terms of some of the narratives, if you look at the economic surprises, they have become positive again. we have seen net buying again of euros in equities coming into the ecb balanced payment data. investors are split on the euro zone. i've just come back from traveling around the u.s., japan, and across europe. you get very different views depending on where one goes. from our perspective, the euro zone is doing ok. it is not doing brilliantly, but it has been dragged down by manufacturing weakness. story is alsoes worth stressing. this going to be a massive disturbance going into october 31rly first -- into october

because the u.k. could crash out without a deal. david w: david owen of jeffries and jurrien timmer of fidelity, thank you both for being with us. into boxes and .ommuter screens set to black things not looking good at the new york office for deutsche bank. this is bloomberg.

♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." coming up in the next hour, wing ceo --, right freight waves ceo.

is struggling with a debt load. today, bitcoin resumed its fall after a roughly 60% loss yesterday. most other large digital currencies falling. bitcoin is still up about 180% for the year. six members of congress from new york city want a big drop in the number of nonessential helicopter flights. the vast bill de blasio to end contracts at two city heliports. i'm viviana hurtado. that is your bloomberg business flash. lisa: thank you so much.

we turn now to wall street beat, three things wall street is buzzing about this morning. first up, london bankers brace for a gloomy summer. thousands of jobs expect it to be cut this season at lenders like deutsche bank, hsbc, and nomura. then a day in the life of deutsche bank new york. it is a tale of empty desks and early beers as signs of trouble service. new york state is looking into claims that advertisers are discriminating against people looking for housing via facebook. david w: joining us now is sonali basak, bloomberg investment banking reporter. we forget sometimes there are real people with real jobs and real lives. this story in london is really quite compelling. one executive search firms has as many as 5000 people could be on the street by the end of the year. sonali: it is staggering. 5000 people, think about it. there were a little over 13,000 at the end of last year, so it's

multiples of the cuts we seem in the last years. we've seen attrition already from brexit moves, but most major banks of said there second quarter is going to be pretty trim as well. lisa: they are saying these are the worst round of cuts in a noncrisis situation that london has really seen. i have to wonder what is spurring this. sonali: things haven't really gotten bad yet. we are not in the middle of a recession, exactly. however, markets have been quite volatile. global investment banker under different types of regulatory pressures. we have seen a year-long retrenchment from european banks. lisa: that leads us to our second story, which is deutsche bank. they've been announcing a series of cuts, possibly up to 1/5 of their staff in order to shore up profitability. in new york, there desks are probably going to get hit particularly hard. what do we know so far? sonali: we've been hearing for a long time that they may cut

equities, and now we know they are going to cut at least half of their global equities positions. they have about 7000 people in the new york according to their most recent regulatory filings. a fraction of that is equities, headcount00 person reduction over time goes well in excess of an equities cut, so we are going to want to see where those cuts come from. other reports have gone to the regulators, saying can you give us a break on those requirements. sonali: that is really a remarkable request. ,he reason that is interesting bank of america is concerned about another capital raise. lisa: which is interesting because you seen the perceived riskiness of like it -- of deutsche bank goes down on this. i can't wrap my head around that yet. i was struggling. [laughter]

finally it is a state story. andrew cuomo here in the state of new york has gone to dfs, which regulates at the state level, to say you should regulate facebook. sonali: i watch everything that youdoes, and usually see the banks and insurance companies. to see facebook on the radar is a very interesting thing, as regulatoryeing pressures worldwide. the reports here are saying if consumers are being discriminate against via social media, then dfs needs to protect them as well. lisa: this also raises questions for facebook on a morning when german regulators came out with an additional round of fines on this company for some of its social media practices. it raises the specter of even more regulatory bodies coming after them if the states are also going to target them.

sonali: certainly. and let's be honest, no bank isn't worried about the big tex folks coming in and eating their lunch -- the big tech folks coming in and eating their lunch. now that they are being treated more like their peers, are they a more serious financial player and incumbent? david w: thanks so much for being with us. coming up, it's that time of year again. fireworks, musical performances, and the boston pops esplanade orchestra. we will look ahead to thursday's annual boston pops fireworks spectacular. more on what i'm watching, and everyone else as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ years ago this thursday, a group of men gathered in philadelphia to sign a document declaring independence from great britain, then the most powerful country in the world.

ever since, the day has been celebrated as the birthday of the united states of the america. one of the most iconic of these celebrations is held in boston every year on the bank of the charles river, where the boston pops fireworks spectacular will be hosted once again this year by our very own alix steel and carol massar, together with matt miller and janet wu. more than 100,000 people will be there, and artists like arlo and queen latifah. there will be fireworks, cannons a dramatic flyover. and because this is bloomberg, we want to give it to you by the numbers. ♪

david: what a fun holiday eight is. lisa: it brings me back holiday it is -- holiday it is. lisa: it brings me back to being a kid, with the sparklers and the fireworks erupting. a lot of people will be watching. it will really be quite a performance and display. david: it is always fun to play

and actuallyrture" have a canon go off on stage. i've done that. lisa: oh really? david: yes, with the oboe. lisa: what haven't you done? david: coming up, bny mellon management's chief investment strategist on that meeting between president trump and president xi. lisa: we have muted price action , though off of earlier lows. emerging markets a little lower. again, it is a light day ahead of the july 4 holiday. this is bloomberg. ♪

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leaders back at it today after 20 hours of negotiations have yet to come up with new eu leadership, and the imf's christine lagarde is said to be the top choice now for the ecb had. markets think twice about the g20 trade truce, touching records, but backing off as equities slip and treasuries rise. and opec oil ministers agreed to extend cuts for nine months. saudi aramco is dusting off plans for its huge ipo. is it really worth $2 trillion? welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this tuesday, july 2. i'm david westin, here with lisa abramovitz. alix steel is in boston for the boston spectacular, of course. lisa: volumes have come down quite a bit. you are not seeing that much action in markets. what this highlights to me is a potential perils. we are getting -- is the potential perils.

we are getting quite a bit of information coming out, with earnings and jobs reports, but really nothing going on. david: the jobs numbers are always important, but last month was so disappointing. does it rebound off of that? you also have the trade truce, as we are calling it, that happened. mr. powell indicating that they .re maybe going to cut lisa: i think it is important to watch in light of the low volumes. let's take a look at the market action, or lack thereof area there has been action in the bond market. yields heading lower, particularly in europe. 10 year italian yields heading for their lowest since 2018. otherwise pretty muted across the board. watch those bond yields. they keep going lower on expectations of more accommodations from the central banks. david: there's more going on outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news.

viviana: the long-running dispute between boeing and airbus may lead to more tariffs. the u.s. listing goods that could be targeted, accusing europe of unfairly subsidizing airbus sales. the eu has a similar case against boeing. president says mexico has done a great job in trying to stop the flow of migrants from central america. he says that has had a big impact on migration. over to hong kong, where they are cleaning up after historic protests left the legislature ransacked. debris and empty tear canisters lynn eric the street -- canisters littering the streets. leader backed hong kong carrie lam vowing to push back against the violence. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm the vienna hurtado. this is bloomberg. david: thanks so much.

it could have been worse. markets breathed a sigh of relief when president trump said that trade talks with china were back underway, and that he would hold off on more tariffs in the meantime. but experts expressed doubt about how much it really changed. >> no collective action whatsoever out of the g20. >> they accomplished what everybody expected, which is very little. >> did anything change? >> not a whole lot, to be honest. >> both leaners would like this trade war to go away for a while. late in the summer or early fall, we may be back in the position we were at in may. the outcome was nothing was going to come out of it, so on the margin it is positive. lvid: we welcome now alicia rolen.nd emily

the s&p shot up, came back down, and then went back up a little bit. they weren't sure what to make of osaka. alicia: going into the g20, we already saw the sectors most exposed to china revenue rally. there was no expectation that there could ever be a deal coming out of this because the structural issues are too deep. it is mildly positive in that theei is now not as much on firing line, but the main issues remain. tariffs remain in place. those are still dampening confidence on the consumer side and on the business side for capex. the existing tariffs alone are enough to dampen economic activity was here and in china. lisa: what is interesting is thatlisa: even though we saw a pop in equities, we didn't see a commensurate increase in bond yields. in fact, if you look at the

negative yielding universe, it's increased to nearly $13 trillion and hit a record. we were talking to jurrien ti mmer of fidelity earlier. he was saying bonds are wrong, stocks are right. do you agree? emily: what a strange dichotomy when we see the 10 year yield anchored in this low 2% range. i think your point about the rest of the world is important. we mentioned earlier the german bund is at record lows, italian yields are lower. that is anchoring the 10 year treasury. the other key element is inflation. inflation is mia. we think the fed will be looking at that and will continue to go down this path. core pce is 1.6%, so that is really going to push the tenure lower in our view. david: we saw the s&p touch a record yesterday. can keep doing that earnings?

we can see revisions downward and revisions upward, and it is really tracking a negative direction. emily: investors are going to be refocused on earnings. in our view, there is a disconnect now between what analysts are inspecting and the macro backdrop. earnings estimates are starting to hook higher again. at the same time, we are seeing the soft data really disappointing. just a couple of days ago we got the pmi data. even though pmi's kind of came expectations,h the leading indicator doesn't look good. lisa: does that mean it is time to get more defensive his socks -- defensive in stocks? alicia: you could have a summer rally here, but this is a tactical trade.

the fed is probably going to cut in july. lisa: by how much? alicia: i'm going with 25 because the data is not that bad. we are really in that muddle through phase. the fed has to steepen the curve. in order to get rid of that inversion, the fed actually has to cut three times. it has to cut by 75 basis points to get rid of the inversion. i don't think we get that far, but it really needs to do that to stabilize the economy. i think the markets move and can be higher this quarter, but ultimately you have to get more defensive, and this could be the last sign. if you take the last 18 months, the s&p really hasn't moved that much. we are essentially in the same place that we were, and the market as a forward-looking mechanism. to the extent that all of the forward-looking data and sentiment data is looking weaker , not bad, just weaker, and like

a rollover, markets will have a very hard time in the long run moving higher from here. david: we haven't seen the jobs numbers yet, so it is hard to see what those will do, but let's talk about a cut. what justifies that? unless there is some real disaster in unemployment, why? trey doesn't seem as at risk as it was a month ago. emily: it is sometimes forgotten that the fed has a dual mandate. to beion is nowhere found. i think the job market is key. friday's report, i will certainly be paying attention after the fireworks. u.s. jobs market has been the rock of an otherwise shaky economy. last month we saw that wobbly bit.- that wobble a we are watching closely for further signs of deterioration. lisa: over the next six months,

what is the biggest gaining asset and what is the weakest asset? alicia: i think the s&p rocks higher in the short-term. i think the fed is on the market side, and there is no alternative, so i would go with equities. emily: we are leaning into investment grade corporate's. we think that implement think that with a core strategy within fixed income makes a lot of sense as the fed starts to get into this loosening environment. alicia: i would have to agree with emily also. the credit markets are really going to be ok here. you've got global easing. this is great for credit everywhere. do i get two answers --alicia: do i get --emily: do i get two answers? [laughter] lowy: parts that have earnings variability, solid balance sheets, tech and health care for offense and staples and

utilities for defense. lisa: thank you so much for that. alicia levine of bny mellon and emily roland of john hancock are sticking with us. coming up, imf managing director christine lagarde touted to be the top choice to replace mario draghi. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." bloomberg has learned saudi aramco is resuming preparations for a mega ipo. last year the offering was put on hold, but now aramco has held talks with a group of investment banks to discuss potential roles. crown prince mohammad bin salman on insists the ipo -- but some mohammad bin salman insists the ipo would take place in 2020 or 2021. the newin anheuser-busch asia-pacific unit is set to take place soon.

bain capital in talks to buy wpp's research unit kantar. lisa: eu leaders gather to discuss picks forth top jobs. imf managing director christine lagarde is touted to be the head to hit the ecb -- to the ecb. levine of bny mellon and emily roland of john hancock are still with us. what can the next head of the ecb actually do to ignite growth? alicia: the ecb is really between a rock and a hard place. the christine lagarde candidacy is interesting.

as we've been discussing over the break, she is really a political figure much more than an economist. much of europe's problems extend from the politics and the political economy. what does that mean to have different fiscal policies when you have one monetary policy and how that plays out politically? at first i was skeptical, but as i think about it, it may be that this is more of a finesse job, and is very political. bestld assume she has the economists that can help her with this. it is a little puzzling because she's not known as one of the leading economic minds out there. she's a political person. david: it is fascinating. is there a parallel here with jay powell? he's been on the fed for a while, but not a trained economist. absolutely. i think alicia makes a great point, the ecb is in a tough

session. investors are going to be looking for someone that can continuous draghi's strategy of ultra accommodation. i think markets need that. they will continue to be in a tough place if inflation is nowhere to be found. alicia: is the head of the central banks becoming increasingly political? what does that mean for their role at a time when a lot of people speculate that their ammunition is used up? if you take a look at the economic data coming out of europe, german factory losses have really dragged down all of europe, and you see that any factoring data coming in increasingly week. i just have to wonder, from your perspective, are we starting to trough out? are we starting to feel out a bottom? emily: the data continues to come in in a disappointing way. we saw the german index coming yesterday. we are seeing sentiment turning sour.

as we have seen this turnaround, looking at german pmi's, they are at 44. that is not a good place. to be. of course the top down -- a good place to be. course the top down is last coupleut the of weeks we are starting to see them if they little bit higher and potentially bottom out -- to see them lift a little bit higher and been chilly bottom out. david: something else that is trending his wages in europe. -- is trending up is wages in europe. faster,es are going up but the blue line is the uptick. is there some hope on the horizon in terms of wages and jobs in europe? alicia: the jobs picture in europe is kind of similar to what we have here. they have a very strong labor

market. actually in the u.k. as well. thehave this global data on manufacturing side that looks week, but the -- that looks labor side is strong. the equity markets have been very strong. france is the strongest market. the equity markets are anticipatory and discount forward, and i think that the trough going on doesn't mean it is happening right away, but the equity markets and economic surprise data are telling you that the worst could be over, and the labor market could drive this the way the labor market here has driven consumption. lisa: if you look at the surprise index in europe, it has been trending up. in the u.s., it hasn't been. do you see the potential opportunity in european equities right now over the u.s.? alicia: i've been supportive of

european equities this year because i felt that the data was already known to be that. we know that germany is in a -- known to be bad. we know that germany is in a tough place with the manufacturing and the tariffs, but all of these places have taken a had already. as an investor, you have to project forward. what is the worst that can come out now? i think europe is interesting. you have global easing everywhere. i think it is an interesting time to go back in. david: just a moment on italy. italy has backed down on a budget now. we watched the two-year bonds dip below zero at one point. is that a good sign for europe, that italy is getting back into the fold? emily: it is. italy is back in the spotlight today. i would just comment a little differently in terms of where we prefer to be on u.s. versus non-us if you think about it, we are late cycle. if you own non-us equities, you

own cyclicality. you own industrials, financials. you don't own tech. when we thing about being in this late cycle environment, we think it is important to lean into lower beta parts of the market from a global equity perspective. the u.s. is a much higher quality market than overseas equities. we do want to hold a balanced allocation to non-us equities, but we are not going overweight until we really see a recovery, which we are not anticipating. david: emily roland of john hancock investment management and alicia levine of bny mellon are both staying with us. , the biggest ipo of 2019. more on that in today's bottom line. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: time now for the bottom line, where we look at three companies worth watching.

i've been watching wpp and bain. bain is close to acquiring part of wpp, specifically the kantar division that has been underperforming, part of the continued dismantling of the empire at wpp. lisa: it is a fascinating story as part of the incredible transformation of advertising. i'm watching anheuser-busch. they are kicking off what might be the biggest initial public offering of the year, possibly raising as much as $9.8 billion in its asia-pacific beer unit. this is being listed on the hong kong exchange. i find this really interesting because beer companies in general have been trying to expand in asia, where their demand is growing, rather than other regions. i'm thinking of the u.s. in particular, where craft beers have been taking more of the market shares, and some of the

big behemoths have been losing. david: it also doesn't hurt to clean up their balance sheet a bit. next, we got auto sales coming out later in the day. we are joined by taylor riggs to take us through it. taylor: in china, they are looking at their second straight year of declines. last year was the first drop in auto sales in decades. we know the story. trade tensions, dropping consumer confidence over there, plus an increase in ridesharing and some of the electric vehicle things that have been pushing down sales in china. the good news is that u.s. auto sales might be a little bit better. they were still forecasting a trucks and u.s., but suvs are sort of saving the day. lisa: still with us, emily roland of john hancock

investment. i would love to get your thoughts on the auto sector. we are expecting the june auto sales report later today showing possibly the worst first half for new vehicle sales since 2013. how far along. are we in this? emily: we talked about cyclicality before. this is an ultra cyclical part of the market if you look at the subsector level. as we look at an environment in which you want to phase cyclicality, this is an area that we would underweight, thinking about autos and more generally consumer discretionary. david: we are getting auto vehicle sales numbers, the number of units sold. that is not necessarily profitability. as we shift into suvs and trucks, there is a higher profit margin on this. companies can make more money by selling less vehicles. taylor: and having to offer fewer incentives. you are looking at an average

, insaction price of $33,350 part because suvs and trucks are more expensive cars. with the price of gas and oil solo, investors -- and oil so low, investors and buyers don't necessarily have to worry about gas guzzling cars. lisa: thank you so much for all of your insights. we will definitely be watching all of the auto sales numbers as they come out later today. coming up, oil studies as opec announces it will extend cuts into 2020. more on that next, as well as saudi aramco news. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am lisa abramowicz in for alix steel. alix steel is on assignment. not a lot of action.

in europe you are seeing a little bit more. perhaps more people are in their seats. this is the time to look for things to happen. the action has been in bonds. as more stimulus from -- 10 year yields and greece down 11 basis points. copper trending lower. david: i love that greek bond yield number. lisa: i love it, too. david: go back a couple of years, you will never of guests. lisa: greased has similar bar -- greece has similar borrowing costs to the united states. david: we turn to viviana hurtado with first word news. viviana: donald trump says trade talks between u.s. and china have resumed. he told reporters negotiators have been speaking by phone after meeting with xi jinping in japan. trump said he would hold up

imposing more tariffs while talks continue. china is speeding up efforts to open up its financial industry to overseas competitors. full foreign evidence -- full foreign ownership of insurance firms will be allowed by 2020. that is a full year earlier than planned. today bitcoin resumed its fall. the cryptocurrency is in the red again after a 60% loss yesterday. a battle over bitcoins erupting on twitter. the contestants, and economy and bitcoin co-founder arthur hayes. we caught up with them in taipei. it has been around for 10 years, what are the killer apps in this space. there are none. casino games and ponzi games. he was questioning your

finances and you got rather fragrant with them. >> he is a hater. he is a no-coiner. that is harsh, isn't it? >> i think so, but i think it is true. viviana: tomorrow the two go head-to-head. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. wwe meets bitcoin lisa: i will be quite honest. i respect the passion people have for bitcoin. if you tweak anything about bitcoin or discuss it, you will get the haters and the lovers. there does seem to be a movement , even up the part of institutions into bitcoin. say what you will about it. it is going down, but it has not gone away. david: feels a little bit like tesla.

you hated, you love it, you feel strongly. lisa: what do you think will happen with tesla? david: i'm not predicting. i'm a journalist. we'll did be -- will be discussing bitcoin more later today on bloomberg technology. now we want to turn to oil. opec agreed to extend its production cuts with opec plus nations acting today. saudi arabia's oil minister said the commitment was solid and the iranian oil minister underscore the need for deeper cuts. >> the commitment to a nine-month extension is unequivocal. it is very strong. not only are we committing to roll over. i have heard the individual commitment to conformity from all countries. >> i think they can. >> they need to cut more? >> if it becomes saudi arabia

produced less -- we welcomevid: tortoise capital portfolio manager coming to us from his office in kansas and still with us is alicia levine. -- will we get a floor under the price of oil because of this agreement? >> this clearly sets the floor for oil prices. opec set the message they want inventory prices to be stable and do not want inventories to rise. with the charter, there will be a new charter that includes opec members plus other members. when that comes out today, i think that be the key message from that charter. as a result we will see stable oil prices and that is key for the energy market in general. foundone thing i interesting is that energy companies have lagged behind the resurgence we have seen in oil

prices. even now there has been a divergence between the moving average of equities and oil prices. i am wondering from your perspective, does that mean there's a reason to buy energy equities on the prospects of steeper cuts? tortoise we think energy is an essential asset. we think energy companies are undervalued and they are compelling investment opportunity for investors right now for some of the reasons you just articulated. energy companies cash flows will build over the next several years. there is going to be amount of cash flow over the next several years in the energy sector. what that requires is stable commodity prices. we need stable oil prices, stable natural gas prices. solidified anion increase that stability, which allowed investors good investing opportunities. andd: alicia, does opec

opec plus have the power to stabilize oil prices? by the time he put shale in the united states, you get to the pesky problem of global growth. ultimately, you have the central planning model versus the free market model. whenis the vestige of russia was the soviet union, not trading a global markets. the u.s. was not producing. the only oil were these 14 nations. that is not the case anymore. it is the case of the three largest providers are russia, saudi, and the u.s.. it is great russia and saudi got together, the u.s. is out there as well. is about trying to contain the output from the permian and u.s. shale. whether or not they will be successful, there will be a cut in the supply side. right now demand is weak because

we have this global slowdown. we do not think there is a global recession. ultimately we will be ok. the other thing i say is that electric vehicles -- let's than forward five years. electric vehicles be the mainstay in china and every large auto company is going electric. you have to think about what that does to the demand for oil going forward. lisa: rob, i would love to get your thoughts. you think that will have an impact? rob: at tortoise, here is how we look at it. we see energy demand growing year after year. energy demand has grown 35 out of the last 36 years. the sources of supply of energy will change. in china, we could see more electric vehicles, less fossil fuel driven vehicles. that means you will need more electricity. where will that electricity be generated from? natural gas.

china needs to reduce carbon emissions by using less coal and more natural gas. 57% of china's electricity is generated using cold. that is partially why we have a missions problem. use moreo reduce coal, natural gas, electric cars will increase the need for natural gas. the u.s. will be a critical supplier of natural gas to china and other countries around the world for the next several decades. we see that is a zynga beget investment opportunity for investors in the u.s. -- we see that as a significant investment opportunity in the u.s.. lisa: what are your top stock picks in the energy sector? rob: very good question. we like natural gas stocks because of the potential and energy infrastructure. the purest way to play the growth in liquefied natural gas demand is through a company with ticker symbol lng, one of the

sole suppliers of lng in the u.s. we expect the u.s. to be the leading supplier in providing global liquefied natural gas. the company needs to buy the natural gas from somebody. they will buy it from a company like cabot oil and gas, one of the largest oil and natural gas producers. it is a low cost producer. , you need aim pipeline and a transportation mechanism. transompany like equa midstream is one of those critical links that connects production to the facilities on the gulf coast. what we like about energy infrastructure is you get a lot of income. in the face of equatrans, dividend yield is about 9%. david: rob thummel and alicia

levine, thank you both for being with us. coming up, freight flashing warning signs for the economy. we will speak to the freeways ceo to get a leak -- and read on the trucking industry. lisa: remember, bloomberg users can interact with the charts shown using gtv . you can save them for later and did into what is getting us excited this morning. we have more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: i am viviana hurtado in the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. coming up, krishna memani,

invesco vice chair of investments. this is "bloomberg daybreak." multinational oil field services provider weatherford filing for bankruptcy protection in houston. weatherford is struggling with an $8 billion debt load while energy producers are looking for ways to cut costs. the chapter 11 filing is the biggest in the industry since the 2014 downturn. here in manhattan, home sales parked up in the second quarter from a prolonged slump. condo sales rising more than 12% but the gains are probably fleeting. byers race to close deals before attacks on properties that took a back -- that took effect yesterday. tesla appears to have had an impact in europe. ina on car sales point in the numbers point to the carmaker gaining ground in markets such as norway and the netherlands. i'm viviana hurtado and that is your bloomberg business flash. lead, aime for all the

deep dive into the stories making headlines and moving markets with insight from industry veterans and insiders. we are looking at the economy following yesterday's pmi numbers and looking at it through the trucking industry. michael mckee, bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent. michael: we have talked a lot about the impact of uncertainty on the economy because of trade wars. there is an actual impact on american factories and you can see it in the ism numbers. they have been going down. look at the ism index of export orders. the index in yellow, export orders in white. the blue line is you is exports overall. we will get a report this week on whether they are falling as well. the companies are making less, those who export goods. that means we have less need for transportation of those goods.

that is being reflected in the trucking industry. you can see how the blue line truck driver jobs, remember how there was talk about how we cannot find enough truckers? thatf a sudden you can see the demand for truckers has fallen off. it has leveled out. the white line, orders for new trucks. orders for new trucks have plunged because people do not think they will need them right away. the reason for that is they are shipping less stuff. this is overall shipping and railroad car loading. railroad cars used to be one of the favorite indicators for alan greenspan. that is the white line. the trend is down. overall freight, which includes trucking, airfreight, and railroads has been down. it went up as the year began and plunged. now it has gone back up again. to that indicate we are seeing a turnaround order company shipping goods that have been

sitting in warehouses because of that full forward of the china trade. those are questions for people investing in freight companies. lisa: investing more broadly as far as the state of the u.s. economy. conditions for the u.s. trucking industry often regarded as a leading indicator for manufacturing are the most negative in a decade. we spoke to the union pacific chief executive. here's what he had to say about the trucking market and the domestic economy. >> wear a soft trucking market start screening problems is on the top line, -- start screening problem is on the top line. commodity shipments might -- start creating problems is on the top line. lowering shipments -- their prices aggressively to counter that. lisa: joining us from chattanooga tennessee is craig -- thankreight waves

you for being with us. let's get started with the deterioration in the landscape for the trucking industry. how much does this reflect a slowdown in the health of the u.s. economy? craig: we think freight volumes have slowed down. what has driven the volumes for the last six months have been imports. had beenshippers pre-stocking their warehouses to ensure they had enough supply. not so much about the tariff cost or the cost passed on the company but the supply chain disruptions. one tweet away from shutting down a border creates a lot of disruption and stress on the economy and a lot of disruptions of the supply chain. shippers do not want to be without product. it is less about the cost of tariffs and more to do with the overall supply chain disruptions and the chaos it causes. we saw significant volumes in the later half of last year.

a lot of the freight volume in the trucking market was coming out of the port cities. that has held off in may, which showed up in the volume for the whole market. we saw 7% drop right after the big china implementation had been made. that softness, while we had a stronger june relative to where we were in may, was not consistent with a strong market. in other industries where you have a falloff in demand, you can make up for it in increased efficiencies. is that possible in the trucking industry? craig: when using creased efficiencies, it is a market that economists would call the definition of a perfect market. the price is set, your contract rates set a year out, most of the volume is determined within 48 hours. shippers have a lot of

optionality about when they send crates to carriers and how that -- how they route that freight. that creates -- the larger carriers are more insulated, the public guys that you would commonly reference are more insulated from some of the broader market conditions. when you look at the small carriers and midsized carriers were exposed to spot conditions, they are suffering, which is why the employment numbers stopped and why the truck order volume has collapsed. lisa: you are indicating that a lot of the slowdown we have the was due to some of the tariff pressures, some of the international pressures. what are you looking for to determine whether this might also be a domestic slowdown getting more traction than people are expecting? craig: last year's full forward really last -- really masked fundamental slowdown in the industrial economy of the u.s..

we saw a massive amount of pull forward last year which masked fundamental weakness in some of the other sectors that drive rate in the domestic market. what has happened is that we are past a lot of the pull forward, we are not seeing the level of volumes. it is starting to show up in the broader data. significant weakness in the domestic market. i believe the domestic market was softer for freight and transportation services earlier than what we saw in the imports. david: euro data company. which categories of freight have fallen off more than others? craig: durable goods drive a lot of the freight market. if you divided it up in segments. about a third of u.s. trucking volumes are directly related to imports or exports. durable goods are a significant

portion of freight demand and drive the trucking market. construction and auto. most people think of trucking, they think of retail. retail is only 20% of overall trucking volume. sectoress important as a for the sector than manufacturing, agriculture, and specifically manufacturing. you can see a direct correlation of the drop off of new trailer orders, we've gotten new data in the last week that is consistent with the durable goods ordered drop off. we are seeing significant weakness in the manufacturing sector. happeneder, with what with the weather conditions this year for produce, that also put a big stress on trucking. i am wondering, you said we are probably seeing a weaker economy last year. what does some of the leading indicators right now tell you as far as what the story will be

six months from now? weakness,n i refer to i'm not talking about the gdp numbers. a lot of trucking -- the gdp number is not as important of a number as some of the other fundamentals like durable goods. while the overall economy expanded and employment expanded , that did not necessarily drive a lot of freight demand. looking forward, i think the quarter will be week as it relates to freight and i think the fourth quarter is a story of retail sales. if consumer spending holds up and employment holds up, then i think the fourth quarter will be a strong quarter for some of the trucking market. what will also happen for the larger guys is a lot of the small carriers will get washed out in the cycle, which will set bullish conditions for next year regardless of what volumes do. lisa: craig fuller of freight

waves, thank you for being with us. coming up, just do not do it. nike pulls its fourth of july theme sneaker following reports of a complaint i colin kaepernick. if you are jumping into your car, tune in to bloomberg radio heard across the u.s. on sirius xm channel 119 and bloomberg business app. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: here is what i am watching. ross --led its bessie betsy ross flag sneaker after the wall street journal reported that colin kaepernick protested the use of it, saying it was offensive because it features 13 stars created during the revolution, when slavery was permitted. interesting to see the response from nike so swiftly, saying we will take it off the shelves. lisa: he has a deal -- david: he

has a deal with nike. we remember how president trump got involved with the nfl. colin kaepernick was one who led kneeling. meanwhile, getting a comment from the arizona governor, saying arizona's economy is doing just fine without nike, we do not need to suck up to companies that denigrate our nation's history. creating some problems politically for the company elsewhere. lisa: i'm not sure our founding fathers would have thought they would have this on the anniversary of the signing of the declaration of independence. coming up on bloomberg -- the open, krishna memani. this is number. ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪

jonathan: coming up, a relief rally taking the s&p 500 to an all-time high ahead of the big slate of economic data. ecb policymakers are not ready to cut rates at this month's teeing of september instead. saudi aramco is a to be restarting its ipo effort. here is your tuesday morning price action. futures just slightly lower. down two points on the s&p 500. yields lower two basis points. 2% year yield on the 10 year. euro approaching 1.13. let's begin with the big issue. the equity market rallying through a wall of doubt. >> there is not much upside for the u.s. stock market. >> a limited upside to the market. >> everyone is fully invested. markets are fully priced. >>