tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg July 21, 2019 6:00am-7:00am EDT
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>> the stories that shaped the week in business around the world. the u.s. banks lead the way as quarterly results poor in. >> they are cutting cost. >> surprise was in fixed income trading. >> tariffs taking the toll. the eu builds -- brexit in ave good way. aree have been working and continuing to work really hard to get better.
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>> the united states has basically shot itself in the foot. >> conversations about the global economy from the g7 finance meeting. i think we need to be thinking about what happens, if there is more than a showdown. you need a country that had -- -- fiscal space to simulate stimulate their economies. welcome i'm abigail doolittle. your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis and interviews from , bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a day by day look at the top headlines.
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on monday, investors divested a slew of economic data from china. >> china's economy is continuing to slow with sluggish domestic output and trade tensions pulling growth down to the weakest pace since early 1990's. gdp grew 6.2%, matching estimates, but below the 6.4% theme in the previous quarter's. how bad is it? >> it is slowing on a quarterly basis. the take away from today is the activity numbers for june. we saw a pickup on the retail side of things, industrial output all headed in the right direction, all beating analyst estimates. a pickup in cosmetic sales, a hint of a turnaround in the car sale sector, it all points to an economy that -- clearly there is a long way to go before it is truly out of the woods, but it hints at stabilization after a rocky period. >> citigroup taken off the busy
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week of earnings, topping analyst expectations, reporting profit and revenue gains despite a 5% loss in trading revenue. >> what struck me was the praise citigroup got for cost-cutting. how is citigroup's cost-cutting better from other banks we have seen? >> for one, there is cost-cutting to improve efficiency and the amount of money you have to invest. citigroup is benefiting from the fact that they are becoming more efficient in some areas and that is allowing them to continue to invest. the bottom line is they reaffirmed the common equity targets. that is a key metric for the company, despite the fact that they have these revenue headwinds, they are cutting cost. >> earnings week for the big u.s. banks underway. j.p. morgan snapped streak of quarterly increases. wells fargo posted its lowest lending income as the pain of
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interest rates hits revenues. powerhouse balance sheets, but still problems with margins. >> we are 3-3 in terms of the bigger u.s. banks. j.p. morgan bringing down their guidance. wells fargo -- which had already brought down their guidance couple times -- missing that estimate. the more negative than from wells fargo is on the expense side of things. they are coming into the higher end of the range, then flat expenses next year. goldman sachs is a different story. the equity trading revenue for the business coming from. coming through, as well as better fees. >> wall street fell from a record and the offshore yuan
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weakens after president trump reminded us that the trade war is far from over. president trump: we have a long way to go in terms of tariffs. we have another $325 billion we can put on if we want. >> this confirms that a clear path to a deal is nowhere in sight. you heard from trump there is a possibility of raising tariffs further, but a precondition for beijing in talks to take all -- we hear china is prepared to whether this storm, the global growth slowdown, and are prepared to adjust fiscal and monetary policy as appropriate. >> bank of america reported a record second-quarter earnings, missed on the interest income despite a beat on trading revenues. >> fixed income trading revenue is unchanged from a year ago. that is surprising, because all the other banks that have
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reported, including goldman, they have sizable declines in fixed income trading. bank of america held on to its revenue. that is a good sign. equities is down, but everybody's was down. we knew net income would be under pressure. the fed has signaled it is going to cut rates. long-term yields have already dropped because of that signaling. the numbers maybe didn't shock people as much. they were expecting it. the surprise was fixed income trading. >> morgan stanley is among the last of u.s. banks to report earnings. they beat of course. >> we have all six banks out. what is your biggest take away so far? >> muted trading environment, overall muted revenue environment. estimates coming down out of this quarter. we got a little bit of excitement at the end of the
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quarter, but that immediately faded, so not enough. we have had estimates come way down. the whole global macro geopolitical uncertainty because that tends to be an indicator for deals. the key concern is will that , feed into the u.s. economy? >> global stocks are rallying today after dovish comments from the federal reserve and new york fed president. at a speech for the central bank research association, williams said "it is better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold." his comments posted market expectations for a 50 basis point cut this month. speaking with fox news later, the fed's number two said "you don't need to wait until things get bad to have a dramatic
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series of rate cuts." a new york fed spokeswoman took the unusual step of clarifying william's remarks, saying they were, "from an opening speech on 20 years of research. it was not about potential policy actions at the upcoming fomc meeting." >> they must know this is just before the quite period, that the end of the month is an important meeting. are they trying to send that kind of signal? the markets heard it. >> traders don't read their speeches, they just trade off of the headlines. john williams was going to make an economic speech about how -- an academic speech about how people make policy when you are close to the zero lower bound. it was, as the new york fed tried to later clarified, a summary of 20 years of academic research. a headline comes out saying williams as you have to act quickly.
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clara was asked late in the interview, would you consider 50? if we needed to, we would. the headline says, fed would, and everyone trades on that. >> it is irritating as a former practitioner. liability went from roughly 40% from when williams spoke to 60% after he spoke. after the clarification, was down to 30%. it may be an academic exercise for mr. williams, if you are a sucker that had to pay out, your loss is real, it is not just something you learn in the classroom. >> still ahead as we review the week on "bloomberg best," an interview with the foreign minister of iranian, plus conversations from the g7 finance gathering in france, and more highlights from a whirlwind of reports. european banks reassure investors they are moving on from money-laundering scandals.
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>> this is "bloomberg best." let's dig deeper into one of the week's biggest stories, corporate earnings. our round up of the week's results continues with some european banks. >> square bank have beaten the streets. it slashes payout policy to 50% of annual profits. money-laundering probes continued. this is a massive headline. you are cutting the payout rates to 50% from 75%. is that in any way tied to your concern about money laundering investigations and what you
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might end up having to face in charges? >> the change in dividend policy is on the backdrop that swing back will continue to be --square bank will continue to be a low risk bank. we have seen in the past 18 months that long-term interest rates and the fx, together with increased capital requirements coming for swedish banks in september pushing down the buffers to levels we don't find acceptable. it is important for us to be viewed as a safe bank, but you have to recognize we are in a special situation at the same time and you have to take that into consideration. to be responsible and build a safety buffer. >> second-quarter operating income missed the lowest
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estimate. the biggest nordic bank by assets is under pressure from investors to improve revenue after years of focusing on cost cuts. they say they need to review capital and dividend targets. should investors prepare for a dividend cut? >> i am not going to comment on right now. when we look at where we are -- in recent years we have de-risked the bank. we have invested heavily into digital and complaints -- and compliance platforms. we concentrated the business into the nordic markets. we are in a new phase of customer focus. we expect soon to have better clarity on our capital requirements. it is in that context our shareholders and investors ask for this. i think in the fall is the right time, because we have the visibility from the banking
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union and requirements we get from there. >> scandal plagued deutsche bank is in talk with denmark's regulator. thanks as extra compliance costs and a tougher trading extra bank says compliance costs and a tougher trading environment forced it to lower its outlook this year. don't the bank has been in survival mode since its estonian money laundering scandal erupted last year. >> let me ask you what you expect as far as capital needs for the remaining year, for 2020. >> so the dialogue we are having with our local regulators is about some of the complaints issues we have found. we do anticipate the mid-single-digit billion range is what we write in our report. that is what we are disclosing. this is not something that will come out until we have firm
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notification of this. given that we want to open up anticipation we are coming out and getting this message to the market so they don't get surprised when we get the actual mid-single-digit range billions. >> erickson's earnings have missed analyst estimates for the first time in six quarters as it says the rollout of 5g mobile networks in asia will weigh on profitability. the swedish network equipment vendors adjusted from the profit rose earlier. results below estimates. how far away are you from completing the turnaround plan? >> we continue to execute on the plan we put out our focus strategy, where we invest in technology to have products and achieve cost structure. we are delivering according to that plan. ourselves on plan
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for the targets we put out for 2020 and 2022. that is what we manage for and drive the business for. on that -- we are on track for that with another solid corner under the belt. >> the trenchcoat maker is up to the most since 2012 after new designs went well with the chinese market. a rebound helped store sales grow four percent, double what analysts expected. should we still be calling for as aerry -- burberry trenchcoat maker? >> it is known for forging alliances with pop-culture icons. in paris, he really opened up this parisian couture house to people like kim kardashian, who has millions of followers on instagram. he brought some of them to burn
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-- to burberry. his designs are bringing attention to the house, but that message is being amplified on the internet. >> the world's most comfortable distillery beat expectations -- profitable distillery beat expectations with net income growing 27% in the first half. revenue was up 17%. what stood out to you? >> the revenue numbers. by any measure this kind of revenue growth in the first half would be impressive for most companies but we've come to expect more. if you look at the revenue for the first half this level is actually is lowest since 2016 and well below its 10 year average. perhaps we are seeing weaker consumer sentiment at play especially at the lower range. this company is in a league of its own that analysts are saying they are not too fazed by the fluctuations. a lot of people are fixated on
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the very healthy profit earnings and pulled in. >> johnson & johnson released second-quarter earnings reporting results better than what analysts expected. pharmaceuticals led the way for johnson & johnson. give us your top line analysis of second order earnings. >> i think our results solidify the first half of the first year in a strong way. pharmaceuticals did lead the way. we continue to perform beyond the market in which we play. if you think about how we entered this year with somewhat average expectations for that particular unit given some bio similar and generic competition, most companies with a 3 billion-dollar headwind will be talking about contraction. we had growth based on our strong portfolio able to bring new products to market as well as line extensions on existing product and we see improving trends so it's a very good start to the year.
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important for their security. if it is, you invest in your security. you don't just get security by praying for it. you must invest. you must do what is necessary. the europeans need to take the necessary action. has basicallytes shot itself in the foot by withdrawing from this agreement. >> what is the necessary action europeans need to take? you want them to buy oil. what is the way out? >> it is up to them to decide. they made the commitment in the deal that iran's economic relations with the rest of the world will be normalized. they made the commitment after the united states left the deal. they knew the u.s. was leaving
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but they committed themselves to allowing iran to repatriate its money, have shipping, insurance, and we have none of that. they need to live by their commitment. if they don't, we don't have a quarrel, we have a mechanism within the jcpoa, the nuclear deal. we negotiated this deal with open eyes, without trusting each other. nobody trusted the other side. that is why we have mechanisms within the deal that we reduce our commitments until they complied. once they comply, it can be reversed. if we go beyond certain limits the reverse would be more difficult and more costly. >> if they don't comply -- >> we will continue with the steps. these steps are legal, in line with the agreement. we are not going to build
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nuclear weapons because if we wanted to build nuclear weapons we could have a long time ago. >> the people talk about breakout -- you think you could ill nuclear weapons tomorrow? >> very rapidly. had we wanted to build nuclear weapons we would have built during the time we paid the price of building the nuclear weapon. during the previous administration and iran, we had all the sanctions, had we wanted to build nuclear weapons we would have built it. >> you think you could build nuclear weapon within a year if you wanted to? >>
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customers with the environment we are in. >> what does that mean in terms of adjusting your supply chains? you talk about 25 manufacturing sites. when do we have to start adjusting prices or have you started doing so? we have beenall, able to have three tariff lists we've been able to navigate and mitigate the impact through shifts in the supply chain or working with our supply base. prices onsted certain a small minority of products as result of our ability to mitigate it.
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>> deputy managing director david lipton has been filling in for steam the guard until the finding of a permanent -- finding of a permanent successor. central banks may help counter a global economic slowdown. right now the baseline is for sluggish growth, slightly stronger in 2020. our baseline is not a slowdown to zero, let alone a recession. is do no admonition harm. it's important that trade tensions and technology tensions not tip the world into recession. the reason is that we have fewer tools. our tools have less policy space. monetary policy is already
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expansionary. harm.rst rule is do no all polic -- policymakers should be responding with what comes. central banks have to keep an eye on the circumstances in their particular jurisdictions and try to keep their economies on the right trajectory to achieve their objectives. we all need to be ready in case there is a significant slowdown much more forcefully. >> in the case of a significant slowdown which part of the world do specs provide the biggest downward drag on global growth? say because weo don't know what shocks are coming. where is in a situation policy tools are somewhat less
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ready at hand. saying, draghi has been it is important that they're not be an overreliance on monetary policy and that in the event of a downturn, especially a severe downturn that all policy levers, monetary, fiscal, and structural will be ready to be used. >> g7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs met in france this week on a host of issues on the agenda. trade wars, global growth, green finance cryptocurrencies, , all are for discussion. many of the attendees spoke of bloomberg. here are some of the highlights from those conversations. >> if you don't know if you are going to be about to sell, then you don't invest because you only invest to produce, and you only produce to sell. you don't know at what tariff you will be able to sell, and
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therefore, you don't invest. this is what is happening. this is why we have seen the slowdown. mostly because of trade tensions which are moving into the territory of investment in creating uncertainty. >> which raises the question of what is to be done about that? one of the responses back in the united states, jay powell has said that because of trade uncertainties we may become more accommodative in our monetary policy. we have seen a growth in a negative yielding debt around the world. will that reverse what you are describing as the challenges to growth because of diminishing trade? >> central bankers are heroes, but remember, over the last 10 years in which we have been dealing with the crisis, they brought down the rates to around zero. the fed was reversing somewhat that now it has given it knows
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that it will start cutting rates going forward. the only problem is that you now need fiscal policy. you now need countries that have the fiscal space to come in to stimulate their economies, invest some more. doesn't mean they will lose control of their economies or their debt, just that there is wrong in many economies and they should use it. >> monetary policy is one thing, but we need also to reflect on fiscal policy. it is high time that we build the right policy mix because what we see today is a slowdown in economies everywhere and also the need to address the various risks that could concretize together. political risk, trade tensions -- between the u.s. and france is nothing. between the u.s. and china. >> one of the things the
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americans say is that the dollar is too strong. do you think the administration will try to talk down the dollar? >> i am not commenting on monetary policy because the currency is their own domain. but i think we need to be thinking about what happens if there is more than a slowdown. i am not saying this is going to happen. our forecaster would say that we are optimistic. we see a slowdown for this year with a modest recovery, but we also see a correlation of risk, and we need to have that in mind. for example, we need to reform wto rules. this is necessary. we also need to reform the imf quotas. and we need to redesign fiscal policies that are coordinated because some of our economies have a large fiscal gap, and we need to use it to invest more and create growth. some of us still have high level of deficit debt and any to reduce that.
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>> i know that you had a one-on-one with steven mnuchin. one of the things the administration has said is that they think the dollar is perhaps a little bit too strong. the think they will try to talked on the dollar, and what does it mean for the euro? >> it is up to every nation to take its decisions as a sovereign nation, but as far as europe is concerned, we think and we have the view that the monetary policy must remain in the hands of the central bank, which is an independent central bank. the ecb is independent and it is up to the central bank and only the european central bank to make the decisions related to monetary policy. this is the french position. this is the european position. and it will stay the european position. maria: you talk about the european central bank. the market is already pricing in a rate cut. do you worry worry that the worry that that could have serious repercussions on the european economy, the real
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european economy? >> there are advantages in low interest rates for the debt for instance. it might be interesting. but the key question for the eurozone is the lack of growth. we have a level of growth around 1.2%. that is not enough. you cannot explain to the people that the eurozone is a success because you have stability but not growth. people are waiting for stability. we have stability. but they are also waiting for growth, for prosperity, for jobs. i think that all the 19 members of the eurozone should think about the possible tools that they might use to feed growth within the eurozone and to have a stronger growth, which would mean more prosperity and more jobs for everybody. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg best, i am abigail doolittle. let's resume our roundup of the wii's top business, news and finance. the european parliament just avoided a deadlock and filled a key executive post. >> ursula von der leyen has been confirmed as the next president of the european commission, the first woman to hold europe's most powerful policymaking post. her term starts at the beginning of november. >> she managed to get the nomination approved by the european parliament but it was just 383 votes, very tight. i was told by senior members of the european parliament that anything below 400 is actually a very weak mandate. it is not a good start. she had a lot of challenges ahead. she's got trade, the relationship with president trump that has become rocky over the past months, and of course, brexit. >> it is not the end of something. it determines the beginning of the future relationship between the united kingdom and the european union.
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and we want to be partners. they are our neighbor. we have common interests. so i will put a lot of emphasis that we will have if necessary, a brexit in a good way, knowing that we have a common future. abigail: facebook back in the hot seat. david marcus the executive , responsible for its proposed cryptocurrency libra spent much of this morning appearing before the senate banking committee, trying to reassure skeptical lawmakers. >> trust is primordial and we have made mistakes in the past. we have been working and are continuing to work really hard to get better. >> not a real warm reception here for david marcus this morning. basically, to the extent of that he was hoping to limit the discussion to facebook's cryptocurrency plans, it very quickly veered away from there. the top democrat on the committee, sherrod brown, basically said that because of facebook's track record, the
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senate would be delusional to trust facebook to go ahead with this project. it is like everyone had a swing at facebook here. they were also talking about libra, which is in that context in facebook's plan to do something that has never been done before and potentially change the way the world uses money. >> the bank of korea has lowered its benchmark rate and we wait to see if the federal reserve takes the lead. i think 10 out of 25 economists got it right. a sign that exports have created an urgency for policymakers that it could not wish to address. this comes less than a year after a hike. what is next for the central
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bank? >> of course, the big question is will they cut rates again, and if so, when. it is kind of exciting and fun when central banks do something unexpected. the slumping exports, six months in a row they had been down, there be ok cutting its 2019 gdp forecast to 2.2% from 2.5%. in the background, a u.s.-china trade war that doesn't and, depressing exports around the region. japan also going head-to-head in there be ok cutting its 2019 gdp forecast to 2.2% from 2.5%. in the background, a u.s.-china their own trade war, cutting their 2019 cpi forecast to 0.7% from 1.1% in april. that is the reason they are cutting rates. >> ab invev's shelving of the year's hottest offering has taken the wind out of the sails of the hong kong ipo market, and even its own plans to clear its debt pile. start with hong kong itself. how important was this deal for the exchange? >> it was definitely important
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for the hong kong exchange. they could have doubled or almost doubles the first share fundraising in hong kong, about $9.4 billion, looking at about $8.3 billion and $9.3 billion in fundraising. so from a numbers perspective, it is very important for the exchange. >> why, is the big question. >> according the sources we spoke to, there was not sufficient demand for the ipo. investors and pension funds, they find the valuation was too rich. they also had concern over growth prospects. >> ab inbev agreed to sell its australian operations to another -- asahi group holdings for $11.3 billion. the two breweries account for about half of the beer market in australia. the company said it is still considering an ipo of its asian subsidiary. >> is this ab inbev not trying to tell investors that they are serious about cutting their debt pile?
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>> yeah, it is interesting that they moved so quickly after the dashed ipo plans to do this. it makes you wonder whether this was plan b, if the ipo of their asia assets didn't come off, whether they were expecting that, whether they were concerned about it. but they don't have really huge pressure to do the deal quickly, so the timing is quite interesting. >> dozens of people were arrested as protests continued in hong kong. the latest and most come amid reports that beijing has rejected chief executive carrie lam's offered to resign. are there any signs that protests will be dying down? >> the protesters have been keeping the momentum quite well. they have tens of thousands in the suburban areas of hong kong, and they have been trying to mix things up. they are not occupying one location, they are going around to different facilities each -- vicinities each weekend and
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managing to get very sizable crowds. they tend to kind of end in violence. little scraps every night. we saw this again last night. two policeman had their fingers bitten off. some gory scenes over there. but they settle for the week, and then protesters are right back out there the following weekend, still attracting sizable crowds. so even if beijing is upset with carrie lam, the problem is for them, if she steps down, it reflects badly on them and provides an example where mass street protests can remove a leader that they have essentially appointed. for them, that is a line that they cannot really cross. >> broadcom's acquisition of symantec appears sidelined after issues surrounding price. we should mention there is a report that indicated broad come is still very keen
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on the deal. where do things stand? >> i don't think it is dead, i think it is stalled. what we understand happen is that everything was done and ready to go. the people i spoke to said everyone was flying down to announce this thing on tuesday, the materials being shared between the two sides, it was essentially braces down. then at the last minute, broadcom found something they didn't like in the due diligence. we don't know what it is yet. and they cut the price. they said that $25 billion had agreed was not sufficient for the risk of taking on the asset, so they tried to reduce it. the question is, can broad come -- broadcom come back with some kind of offer in between what they originally said to get symantec over the line? it makes it harder for symantec to safe we will take a lower offer. >> bayer has won a ruling blasting a jury verdict to $25 million from over $80 million, over claims that its roundup weed chemical causes cancer.
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the same judge who reduced punitive damages also rejected the company's request for a new trial. bayer had vowed to keep defending its popular weed killer. how good is this news for the bayer? the reduction in damages? >> on the surface, it looks good. $25 million is nicer than 80 million. the real thing that they were hoping for came on friday when the judge rejected a new trial, so they have to appeal this case, which will take quite a bit of time. this is the second of three trials that bayer has already lost. i guess given friday's news, this is the best case scenario for bayer. >> iran's revolutionary guard said it has seized a british oil taker on the strait of hormuz. the u.k. government says it is urgently seeking more information. the u.s. government says this is
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the latest episode in escalatory violence by iran. >> this only goes to show what i am saying about iran -- trouble. nothing but trouble. >> 12 hours ago, we were talking about the potential for both sides trying to find a way to -- towards a diplomatic solution and an opening for talks. what we have just seen in the last couple of makes all about i hours think much more difficult. obviously, following reports that two tankers, not just the one that we know about, but possibly two tankers have been seized. directed into iranian territory. definitely ratcheting up the tension in a very, very narrow waterway that about one third of the world's seaborne crude oil passes through. ♪
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anne: interesting to see where the gloom is coming from. i saw in your notes that you were talking about the policy. i checked out the ea function on the bloomberg and yes, we have seen some positive sectors. it seems today's earnings season has changed the balance of little. we see a little more gloom. you don't see it as you watch of communication coming through the season from corporate, but there does seem to be some gloom out there. abigail: there are about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg and we always enjoy showing you our favorites on bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorite. here is another function will find useful -- quic . you can get important context and fast insights on many timely topics. here's a quick one from this week. >> lets say you have given up your law-abiding lifestyle to pursue a life of crime. you have just made your first
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big score perhaps from selling drugs, taking a bribe or other corrupt acts. you can't just spend it for or deposit it into the bank -- -- you can't just spend it or deposit it into the bank without attracting attention from authority. it might serve as evidence for the crime have committed. so you need to get the dirty money clean. there are three steps to any money laundering scheme. first up, placement, where funds are moved from direct association with a crime. then layering, or disguising the money trail, and then integration where funds are finally able to spend without being caught. what are your options? one option is forming a shell company. it is plenty easy and there are many law firms which can help. it should take on the than sending up for a new email addresses. launderers may turn to historic tax havens like switzerland, or places or you can set up anonymous shell companies like the u.s. states of delaware and nevada. once the shell company is set up, make up fake transactions for goods or services which you
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pay for with your dirty money. suddenly, the dirty money looks legitimate. it also helps to find people in banking who don't care if you are a shady client. after the fall of the soviet union launderers sought out weak spots throughout europe. billions have been funneled through banks in cyprus, malta, and the baltic nations of estonia and latvia. if you prefer to use the stock market, you can try mirror trading. in this method, use your money to purchase shares then you sell shares at the same amount somewhere abroad. the trades functionally cancel each other out, but you have successfully turned your rubles into clean euros. a similar method is a back-to-back deal where a a loan austriaut , guaranteed by a deposit of dirty money back home in russia. she defaults on the loan, the bank in russia seizes the deposit, but she still ends up with the proceeds, no strings attached. or maybe you like to visit the casino. another method of
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money-laundering is mixing dirty money in with clean. cash businesses like restaurants and casinos are particularly attractive to launderers. a common scheme is to buy casino chips, make a few small wagers, and then cash everything else out as winnings. or finally, smurfing. though you won't need anything blue to get your green. in this one, a higher a bunch of associate to deposit small chunks of the large haul you're trying to cleanse in different accounts in different places. beware u.s. banks are required , to report any transaction over $10,000, so you might need to find a lot of smurfs. you can see there are lots of ways to launder money. unfortunately for you, there is no guarantee that you won't get caught. abigail: that was one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them on bloomberg.com along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that is all for "bloomberg best" this week. thanks for watching. i'm abigail doolittle.
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emily: i'm emily chang and this is the best of bloomberg technology will bring you all of our top interviews from this week. tech on the hill, all under scrutiny this week. representatives from amazon, apple, and google, all on the defense. plus, netflix needs to get stranger. stocks plunge after a subscriber dip. they need to bet on new shows like stranger things. elon musk announces his latest
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