tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg July 21, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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paul: welcome to daybreak australia. i am paul allen. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. sophie: i'm sophie kamaruddin. we are counting down to asia's major market open. paul: here are the top stories in the next hour. hong kong street protests taking a new term. -- turn. they fire police guess. taking stock of of the new tech board aims to persuade the next
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tencent or alibaba to list at home in hong kong. engle ini am stephen tokyo. shinzo abe wins the upper house vote but failed to secure a super majority. we will have results and reaction. kathleen: market action into asian trading, we have to take a look at u.s. trading first. the stock market was on its way to a modest gain, mixed results on earnings reports, microsoft with a great report, netflix not so great looking over the course of the week. friday it was news late in the day iran's revolutionary guard seized a british oil tanker in the strait of hormuz. as you can see at the close we had the dow jones down a quarter-point, 68 point decline. at .75 percent loss.
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it is just after 6:00 in the u.s., so futures are looking to decline on the s&p 500. also wondering about the fed friday, the president of the st. louis fed repeated he is in favor of a 25 basis point cut a day after john williams seemed to be saying he was on board for a 50 basis point cut. new york had to clarify he wasn't talking about the present time. these are all hanging over the market going into a fresh trading week. how are things in asia? sophie: a frustrating week. with $250n friday billion in market cap, futures looking next and kiwi stocks going to extend gains. news to consider, with obvious election victory and -- for shinzo abe's election victory and protests in hong kong.
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the philippine president will deliver his state of the nation address and we will get export data from taiwan and south korea and moving into earnings season with big names reporting in japan and south korea. for china the spotlight is on a new tech board that will for -- that will see the first debut monday. a busy start of trading. paul: for more on the shanghai tech board and the rest of the first word news, let's get over to tom mackenzie. thank you. china's new nasdaq style tech for debuts later, a year after xi jinping discussed this. the so-called star board is the latest to attempt -- to bring in .ajor companies like alibaba 25 firms will begin trading monday. the board is testing a testing ground for regulators who have these rules on valuations in
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first a price limits. new data from the u.s. shows chinese investment has collapsed since president trump entered the white house. the rhodium group said the direct investment has followed from a peak of $46 billion in 2016 to $5.5 billion last year. ramped up regulations and a hardening attitude in washington helped reverse years of rising chinese spending in america. the british government wants the united nations to intervene in the tanker spat in the gulf and has threatened iran with what it calls serious consequences. london is demanding the tankerte release of the and is advising u.k. shipping of increased threat in the strait of hormuz. you could see the tanker in the port, flying the iranian flag. says he chancellor intends to resign wednesday if
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boris johnson becomes the next prime minister. johnson is the clear favorite to win the race against the foreign secretary. when the conservative party results are announced tuesday. hammond not be able to accept johnson's demand that members must accept a no deal brexit. theformer governor of reserve bank of india said brexit is the main reason he is not interested in succeeding mark carney at the bank of england. he's a central banking is more political in recent years, and -- he said central banking is more political in recent years and it is best for britain to have someone who understands the political situation in the country. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am tom mackenzie. kathleen: this is bloomberg. kathleen:japanese prime minister the upper has won in
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house election but falling short of a super majority that would have allowed his revised constitution. stephen engle is live. he didn't win the super majority, but he won. what does this mean? it is another mandate for shinzo abe as he attempts to become the longest serving prime minister. he will be that longest in september. he solidified his mandate to put forward a sales tax increase that will take effect in october. he might not have gotten the super majority to push forward for the constitutional revision, but at least he can have the next three years or so until the next upper house election to sway the lawmakers and move the ball forward on what he called his mission, to revise the constitution, to put in article three or section three of article nine of the constitution
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to basically legalize in the constitution the self-defense forces which is not in place now. let me run through the math. getou said, they did not the super majority but here are the numbers. 124 seats were up for contention yesterday. seats, nhk, --servative production projection, saying 169 -- they needed 85 for the super majority, so short but another mandate for the shinzo abe coalition. you did mention the sales tax increase. that is a lock. what about the rest of his policies? looks as though it is a lock. shinzo abe did speak to the press late last night saying the tax hike, it is needed to
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maintain the country's confidence, no need to hike more. they will go from 8% value added tax, consumption tax from 8% to 10%. he says another hike will not be needed for 10 years. no more will be needed if they have success in the economic reforms shinzo abe has promoted. kathleen: 57% opposed the tax hike, but he managed to keep his seat and move ahead. are we talking about a possible snap election? looking at the powerful lower house -- what would shinzo abe have to gain calling a snap election? he is not ruling out another snap election, but the next couple of years, deep in mind they have the last lower house election in 2017.
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he has a number of years to call that. he wants to gain more support for his constitutional changes. that is what he really, his mission to push forward. he needs a two thirds supermajority in the upper and awer houses to push forward movement to get a national referendum on the constitutional change. you say the tax hike is unpopular. constitutional reform is as well. he has a lot of work to be done not only with lawmakers but with a national public in japan to push with that. the chief north asia correspondent there in tokyo, thank you. the latest road tests in hong kong turned violent as police fired to your gas and demonstrators converged on china's medical headquarters in the city. organizers claim 100,000 took part in sunday's march which
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began peacefully. let's get the latest on this with our reporter. what happened? reporter: it started peaceful marched 400,000 people in the city. that is according to the organizers. the police put it at 138,000. it was pretty big. they are protesting a range of the extradition bill which sparked the protests six weeks ago but also merging into wanting to ask for an independent inquiry into the violence the police have used against protesters. they want to see universal suffrage in hong kong. saw this march ending but a group of protesters went over into west hong kong island where the chinese liaison officers -- this is the official representative -- representation
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of the chinese government in hong kong. the asserted to deface buildings and scraping some of some of thent cameras. people say it is an infringement of china's sovereignty in hong kong. i can imagine the government must of been worried the protesters would get as violent as they did when they attacked is listed of -- the that is late of counsel weeks back. they put out a statement saying they were planning to disperse the crowd. after a couple hours, around 10:00 at night, they fired tear gas to disperse the crowd and reduce the risk we would see some attack on the liaison office which would have been a direct attack on beijing and its sovereignty in hong kong. onhleen: also attacks protesters do the border,
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getting so violent. is anybody wondering what is driving this? it has gone beyond where it seemed to start, something that gets more and more dangerous all the time. yesterday, aw village, a suburb of hong kong in the new territories, it is across the harbor. from this place you can see china, shenzhen, the big economic zone in china, close to the border. what happened was we saw a lot of white shirted protesters. people said they may be associated with a triad. the only conclusion we can draw is they were pro-beijing protesters. these people spontaneously attacked anybody wearing black. on.ve a navy blue shirt they were taking anyone wearing black because it has been the
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color of protest. one interpretation i have heard is protesters have said they condemn police violence but never said anything about their own violence and whether they condemn the violence of extremist among democracy protesters in hong kong. the risk is now we see different groups taking messages into their own hands, and it undermines the rule of law. that is a big risk going ahead. tweed.avid tech market brainchild comes live today. the launch of the new tech board. kathleen: and are we at the start of the next high volatility roller coaster? the cio of liquid strategies will guide us through the market actions. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪
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stocks fell last week as investors weighed escalation tensions with iran and the federal reserve decision at the end of the month. while volatility is off of the highs, most of this was pumped into volatility themes since the beginning of may. our next guest says we are at the start of another high volatility cycle. joining us is liquid strategies chief investment officer sean gibson. thank you for joining us. been relatively quiet. do you see that changing and how will impact your strategy? having me.u for if you think about volatility, there are two ways to think about it, short and intermediate longer-term. if you think of the factors that drive short-term and intermediate, the catalysts are really obvious. talking about fed policy,
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earnings and economic news, and talking about trade tensions. those are short-term in nature. they can change on any given day. coming in to last week, volatility was quiet towards the end of the week with an increase in noise around those three issues. you can see a pickup in volatility, and interestingly the volatility models we track to support our trading strategy picked up on a heightened risk of volatility over the next week or two could certainly be on the rise. that is one thing to think about with volatility but just as interesting as the long-term view of volatility, looking the past 30 years, volatility tends to shift in the four to six year regimes from high volatility, low volatility back to lowball. inr since 2013, we have been
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ultra low volatility environment. 2018, we will look back in a year or two and see 2018 being viewed flexion point with the major volatility spikes -- eing a most of the high volatility regimes come with something most people don't want to talk about, recession. regime, thereity will typically be 12 months before most of us realize there is a recession. recessioning off potentially one of the arguments for the assurance rate cut the fed seems to have raked in, a quarter of a percentage point over the next week or two. do you see going forward global growth using, the fed likely to tend towards the dovish end? don't, the market
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will not like it and volatility will be going to react. when i come back to short and intermediate term volatility, i would argue even 25 basis point cut at this meeting, unless it is supported with dovish comments at the press conference, that is going to fuel more volatility at the beginning of august. if the market cuts 50 basis points, you could see a real blanket put on volatility. that could be enough to get the market moving higher. kathleen: what if they don't cut it off? and i want to quote -- what if they did not cut or they cut once and signal it is an insurance cut, may not move again? my expectation with volatility is it would go up significantly. part of the reasons, you think of the drivers the past four or
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five years of lower volatility is easy monetary policy, lower interest rates coincide with lower volatility. the less you lower rates, or they don't lower at all, that should be supportive of volatility. i think it would be a problem from the volatility perspective for sure. the great thing about what we do is we are not afraid of volatility. we welcome it. kathleen: quick final question, what if i don't go to your firm? i am a meat and potatoes stock investor. what strategy or stock would you recommend? shawn: i would be looking at things that have a defensive component to them. there is plenty of strategies including ours that are plain vanilla in terms of getting you stock exposure, bond exposure
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but can utilize options to provide either a buffer for ,otential risk, extra income smoother volatility. there is a lot of products and strategies that are out there that can combine sources of beta with optionality to give clients return streams they are looking for. we are one of those. sean gibson, thank you for joining us. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to do in today's edition of -- need to know in today's edition of daybreak. go today be go on terminals. also available in the anywhere app. you can customize settings so you only get news on industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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paul: i am paul allen in sydney. kathleen: i am kathleen hayskathleen:. you are watching a break australia. president trump grumbles about china not buying enough u.s. farm products. there is movement on that front. ros krasny joins us with more from washington. and howhappening, significant is it? we see and hear trump tweeting. interesting.een president trump has become restive about china not buying enough farm goods in his opinion since he met with president xi. tweaking it, discussing it at the cabinet level, not clear if president trump wants to see some big flourish behind these purchases, because export statistics from the department of agriculture show china has
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been buying soybeans, a lot of soybeans on the high seas going to china at the moment, cattle hides. trump would like to see more. they could be dependent as we reported overnight on chinese importers getting tariffs exemptions. more could be said in the next few days, but it seems like the that has prevented progress on trade talks could beginning cleared up. we have reported technology companies will come to the white house monday to talk about huawei and the government's approach to that. that could be a big sort of incident. i don't know what we will hear about these meetings closed to the press. some suggested there is movement , and formal talks could get underway soon. paul: washington going to be hosting one of the big events of
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the week, special counsel robert mueller testifying on capitol hill. what can we expect? ros: when you think of some of the big events in washington over the decades, watergate hearings, anita hill confirmation hearings, the robert mueller testimony will be right up there with those. the special counsel himself is reticent. he didn't want to have this hearing. he has indicated he has nothing more to say beyond what is in his report. the democratic lawmakers who are leading the two committees have said, not that many people read the book. now they will see a movie and hear it from robert mueller himself and are looking to tease out the drama contained in the report, possibly as a way to get more leverage for further hearings against the trump administration. it remains to be seen if they can do that. public opinion does not favor
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going hard-core against the administration of this point. -- at this point. paul: thank you for joining us. let's get a check of business headlines. standard chartered could ask the ceo to take a pay cut according to the financial times. the report says the board is in discussion with shareholders and is increasing pressure over the compensation policy. they earlier told the newspaper shareholder focus is quite amateur and unhelpful. romaine: cathay pacific has kong'shong kong -- hong carrier. hong kong express was owned and chinese conglomerate and cathay pacific will continue as a standalone carrier. details have not been released but cathay said they would take $290 million for this and repay a similar amount of the debt. still to come, china's version of the nasdaq comes
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we like drip coffee, layovers- -and waiting on hold. what we don't like is relying on fancy technology for help. snail mail! we were invited to a y2k party... uh, didn't that happen, like, 20 years ago? oh, look, karolyn, we've got a mathematician on our hands! check it out! now you can schedule a callback or reschedule an appointment, even on nights and weekends. today's xfinity service. simple. easy. awesome. i'd rather not.
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sydney,30 a.m. here in we have futures a little weaker right now. i am paul allen in sydney. kathleen: i am kathleen hays where it is scorching in new york. you are watching daybreak australia. let's get to first word news with tom mackenzie. thank you. the hong kong government has denounced the actions of protesters who targeted china's main headquarters in the city as a peaceful mass rally turned violent late sunday evening. police fired tear gas as
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demonstrators converged on injing's main liaison office hong kong. hundreds of thousands marched through the city in a sixth straight weekend of antigovernment rallies. japanese prime minister shinzo abe has claimed victory in the upper house elections but is short of a so-called super majority that would allow him to push through a revised constitution. at least 69 of 124 seats. keeping him on course to be the longest-serving leader. majorityrt of the needed for constitutional changes. british airways continuing to halt flights to cairo as part of a warning about aviation in egypt. the carrier says it is constantly reviewing security arrangements and will never operate a flight unless it is safe. lufthansa also suspended cairo flights over the weekend but has resumed services.
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cairo is playing down threats, saying there is no reason for holding flights. the latest opinion poll in u.s. states that will hold primaries or caucus-goers puts joe biden ahead of the field to challenge president trump next year. the former vice president is given 25% support ahead of senators elizabeth warren, kamala harris and bernie sanders. no other one achieved double-digit support. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am tom mackenzie. this is bloomberg. kathleen: time for the market check with sophie in hong kong. sophie: oil prices are extending friday's advance. the u.k. government warns of -- theresa may is to lead an
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emergency meeting on security of shipping in the persian gulf. she will leave office wednesday so her successor will inherit of this. switching the board to look at cable which is around 125 as markets consider what is next for the united kingdom. boris johnson contends the logistical issue of the irish border can be solved while the e.u. is reporting a package for ireland to offset the economic damage of a new deal brexit. the yen may touch 108 as some could gain after the election victory but credit sees an upward bias for the currency as it is talking with the u.s., putting it under appreciation pressure as they focus on trade and central-bank events. and the yuan in a tight trading range. there is another risk of a breakdown in trade talks. chinese companies are applying for u.s.f preventions agricultural products.
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paul: let's get more on what we should be watching as trading gets underway. we have the global markets editor adam haigh. .uch of the excitement fading it was quite something in terms of communications. where does that leave us? it was a dramatic 24 hours. thinking back to the dovish comments from both richard clarida and the fed, new york fed, john williams, the market ramped up your you can see it clearly on this chart in the gtv. good want to reference because it shows how quickly the move was to be paired back. you had the big mover late thursday, a big spike as investors moved towards the idea 50 basis points is what the fed would do have the end of july. all of it came back out friday night what happened in the asian trading session, you had the big gain in stocks because the market was leaning towards a dovish side of things.
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as we got in to the new york session for equities, some heat came out as people started to pare back moves on the rates side of things grew that is the set up for asian equities, starting on the back foot, the risk premium coming out a little bit as people assess what is the blackout timeframe until with a decision at the end of next week. up with the onus on company fundamentals and earnings. the earnings season ramps up this week. we have across the board from anancials to industrials, large swath of companies. it will be the next thing investors will be able to latch on to whether or not trade fears are playing out and -- kathleen: the fed may not be able to give a headline hits. we saw what netflix did to investors last week. earnings is a threat, but the price of downside protection continues to rise for equities, everyone talking about convergence.
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one of the best things to do right now, hold tight and do nothing. what is the argument? adam: it has been a winning strategy. markets have been quite ranged down, the s&p has touched out on record highs, but the gains we saw in the first half of the year have simmered as july has progressed. at investment firms, we spoke to the ceo, he said that is what you want to be doing. you don't want to be taking it bets at this point. we are unsure how the fed policy progression will play out the next six to 12 months. we have a cut for the end of this month but after that things get more tricky to assess. you don't want to be adding to risk assets, but you want -- don't want to be getting
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defensive through that is the crux of the arguments. this is a lot of people in the market say there are enough worries for you to want to be significantly dialing back on very gettingsure into the easing cycle which has -- exposure. getting into the easing cycle, don't want to get defensive. paul: thank you for joining us. you can check out gtv library for the charts we have been talking about. gtv on the terminal. letter init is a red china or a tech letter day with the nasdaq style tech board. it is dubbed the star market and will play a big role in getting tech listings back home. expect? hat can we we need a drum roll in lights flashing. selina: i am in shanghai ahead
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of the launch of this, and there will be a fair amount of hours at the shanghai stock exchange, expecting representatives from 25 companies to be there. that is out of 100 applicants that applied to be a part of this. there has been huge demand for this that outstrips supply. context, demand from retail investors outstripped supply 1800 times. we are expecting a huge frenzy of activity, a lot of investors going to sit it out because they expect lofty valuations that will die down after the initial excitement. the stakes are incredibly high or this to succeed. xi jinping promoted this, it has been touted by the top levels of chinese government and has taken with the tradeds war, at a time china is threatened from being cut off from the global supply chain, it is greater reason for china to have a domestic exchange to a debate and provide enough resources for domestic tech innovations.
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what are the rules of the new exchange? changesthere are pulled in the new exchange. it does away with the opaque government controls that have ruled exchanges in the past in china. here are the three biggest changes. first of all it is getting rid of the previous processes, going process, registration something most u.s. companies in the u.s. do. it allows private companies to list which is a huge change, allowing startups not making money yet to have a chance to go public. it is also allowing companies for dual class to list, and that is something many entrepreneurs prefer. this is a broad chance to try and get tech companies to list at home. tencent tolibaba and the new york stock exchange and they want chinese retailers to be a part of the growth of their own homegrown tech companies.
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there has never been a lack in china. what has been lacking has been a regulatory structure that will allow younger companies to list, but a different financial profile. kathleen: whenever something new starts, everyone is positive, but a nice story over the startd says the stars, may fade as quickly as it rises. she points out liquidity is likely to slip after an initial spurt. she said star board has yet to land any big fish. a lot of tech companies still may want to list in the u.s. or hong kong to raise money in dollars. they want to have access to taking capital out of china. what are people saying about the other side of the coin, i guess? ofina: there are no shortage skeptics. these highflying this will still want to list abroad because
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there is the cachet that comes with listing in the u.s., but many want to get around capital control rules in china and raise money in dollars. in addition to that many investors are concerned this could be another boom and bust we have seen in the chinese rockets before. this is in the government's first time they try to make bold capital markets before. in china they did see the 2015 boom and bust and many investors are burned from that. you also mentioned many of the companies are not well known which is true. many investors have pointed out there are so many big highflying unicorns in china, why aren't we seeing those? there has been concern about the quality of companies and the fact with lax trading regulations that will be a huge rise and fall in prices. no shortage of skepticism, but very little room for criticism of this in china because this has been touted by the top levels of government.
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kathleen: one of the biggest news stories, shinzo abe winning the upper house election but falling short of the so-called super majority that will let him push forward revisions to the constitution he has worked for so long. let's discuss this with a professor of international public affairs. so he won. he didn't get the super majority . set to be the longest running prime minister in history, seems like he would have plenty of power to do what he needs to do. what does it mean? approvales it for the
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of the voters what he has been doing. side, the diplomacy [indiscernible] tough stance on diplomacy issues and on the constitution amendment, super majority. he has to work on that to get who of the parties members inclined to amend the constitution. the constitutional amendment has been there for the longest time. he pushes? he has got all kinds of things priority? hat is his [indiscernible]
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and he won the election which means voters gave him a clear goal. i think the constitution plan.ent is his lifelong this is probably less chance for him on this, unless he wins a fourth term. he will put emphasis on the constitutional amendment. paul: how about some of the stickier thinks japan faces on the foreign policy front? trade talks with the united states or more presently the current difficulties with south korea now the elections are out of the way? can you see opportunity for progress? prof. ito: for u.s.-japan trade been a i think there has basic agreement between the two countries, on the working party
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level. i think japan has still something to please trump in the last stage. they will be buying more agricultural goods from the u.s.. on the u.s. side, trump has to say, there is no tariffs on the automobile exports to the u.s.. that is a deal, auto and agricultural goods. i predict it will not be too difficult. on the south korea issue, that is very difficult question. japan has its own misgivings on many issues. onth korea seems to be stuck the ideas that they have to push and more. i don't see -- anotherst week we had
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bit of different -- disappointing inflation numbers out of japan, reaching the limits of what the boj can achieve. now shinzo abe has a big mandate, is there something he can do on the economic policy front? kuroda hasgovernor been saying there are plenty of tools that he can use if needed. i think he is thinking how to stimulate lending more to the private sectors. there are things. not limits het is is facing. kathleen: you helped put together a very impressive conference last week, the international public affairs, and you moderated a panel on social -- banking independence. i want to play something that,
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part of what he said when you asked him about critics of boj policy, monetizing the debt, let's listen to how governor kuroda answered you. >> i think the central bank independence is well-established in japan. [indiscernible] mmt is now fashionable even in japan. disagreeally [indiscernible] kathleen: mmt, monetary. can buytheory idea, you these and hold on -- did the governor answer your question to your satisfaction? what is the important question? mmt means central bank doesn't have independence. authority issues bonds, central
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bank has to absorb them. until the affliction target is achieved. bank --means central what kuroda answered beautifully is that in japan, central bank independence has been established, and abe has not said anything about interest qt. hike or lower qe or any of the tools, he hasn't mentioned. that means there is a clear independence from other countries. do whateveroda can atwants without being looked as losing independence. kathleen: got that big
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paul: i am paul allen in sydney. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. you are watching daybreak australia. now for a check of business flash headlines. at the hot airways and deutsche group have restarted discussions to invest in jet airways, according to the business standard newspaper. the report they are examining funding requirements to pay off creditors in order to bring a back to the skies great last month talks were said to have broken down. jet airways has been grounded
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since april after running out of cash. paul: the bridgewater associates flagship fund has given one of the first performed at worst performances in 20 years. first six4.9% in the months of 2019 but managed to recover some of the losses this month. the sun -- this comes after a strong 2018 when it gained almost 15%. paul: avatar has been toppled as the highest grossing film. disney's avengers end game has taken three point $8 billion in theaters worldwide. avatar held the record for 10 years. according to revenue tracking website box office mojo, and ine is only 16 if you factor inflation, with the top spot held by gone with the wind. paul: bmw has prompted the production chief -- promoted a production chief to ceo, and
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this man will succeed but person who stepped down after four years following struggles to set a course for the luxury carmaker . tom mackenzie spoke exclusively with bmw's china president and ceo on the new appointment in the future strategy for the group. aim is to be slightly better than the premium segment. we expect the premium segment to grow single digits, so this is also orientation for us. 17% is because we have these models in 25 -- this year in china. it is high in the first half but in the second half will because her to the single-digit growth of the total markets. tom: do you think the market will bottom out? >> i think you see it already. talking about the total passenger market, the decline is
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slowing down. we are close to the bottom of the total market. then in the second half of the year, driven by additional -- we believe the car market will have slower growth in the second half. tom: there has been change in the top at bmw. what signal does it send in terms of the direction of travel for bmw and the company priorities going forward? >> as i am responsible for china, let me comment on china. my predecessor was ensure mental for implementing our china strategy. -- instrumental for implementing our china strategy. the equity increase, i think we got a lot of support from him, and now looking at the new man, he is also a longtime china friend. we have one of the biggest
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production bases for the group from a china perspective, we expect to continue -- [indiscernible] tom: give us an update as to what extent these trade tensions are proving a drag on the china business? -- we believe in open market and free trade. it is beneficial for all of the markets involved. i think when it comes to the tensions, i would say we are in a good position because we have a big footprint, production footprint in europe. in variousig plant places and here in china. we have the philosophy of production follows the market. with that of course you automatically mitigate risk of trade tensions. kathleen: that was the bmw china president in an exclusive interview with tom mackenzie in
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