start to hear the bells ringing on the close, it was the ,tory of doing well today confidence did as well. really the key for us within the u.s. economy is still going strong. >> consumer stocks have been doing well. agoaw the couple of days with earnings out of the food service companies, now png. a lot of analysts talking about how the low-end consumer, how they put in, has been perking up. caroline: finally getting some wage gains in that area. and, finally getting some movement in the russell 2000. small-cap area, we are up or than a percentage point -- more than a percentage point.

mike: u.s. stocks to some degree have brushed off the tweets from president trump this morning criticizing china. soybeans fell to a seven low today. this is after president trump criticized china after -- criticized china for not increasing american farm imports. trade war worries have people away from soybean market. open interest in soybean contracts have fallen to eight four-year low. wheatcotton, some contracts all off. forecasts for cooler weather in -- midwest also plan on playing on prices. benign weather should help crops behind in development after a rainsoaked season.

ag commodities are a little bit more pressure, but we do have commodities that double as currencies, like silver, up for the 2nd straight day. it is up ahead of the fed meeting as they aresing also piling into more options. the volumes of calls and puts surged this month. 2010,ghest since november and a sign of greater speculative interest in that market. silver comes more into this picture as silver futures head for the biggest monthly gain the year and silver-backed etf's

also surged. they are betting ketchup -- reading it will -- betting it will catch up to the gates of gold -- gains of gold. it many looked at times, the 10 year yield over the last year. last year, staying around 3%. the volatility of the fourth quarter driving yields down. we see the 10 year yield bouncing off the bottom of this channel. this suggests what our guest was just saying, that a rate cut is priced in. tot can powell possibly say stimulate markets more? we could see it moving to the top of the trend channel. the last time we went above the

moving average, there was greater than 50 basis points. all of this suggests that we could see rates rise after the fed. caroline: breaking news on the numbers coming out of biotech company amgen. second quarter adjusted earnings per share, $3.97. the estimate was $3.59. they are saying earnings-per-share will be $13.75 to $14.30. to $22.9ill be 22.4 billion. romaine: electronic arts, the videogame company, their first quarter revenue and also eps coming in above estimates. they are reaffirming their

forecast for the full year and giving second quarter estimates that are coming in slightly below what some analysts are expecting. there full-year forecast, they are standing by. caroline: still with us is ed and luke. ed, earnings season, how are you taking it? the analyst community and companies have done a good job of they normally do, which is lowering expectations. most companies have beaten expectations well over 70%. the real question from here is focusing the top line growth, which has been ok, around 4%. we are really keyed on the revenue number we would like to see that get a little bit higher. thee start to focus more on

2020 earnings numbers, are we going to get that acceleration back into the double digits? as far as this earnings season, it has not been terribly exciting that a pretty good earnings season. romaine: you look at the way people are trading in the market, not just a short-term over the longer-term, say past 2019, would you say they are betting on fed support to propel this market further, or do you think there is a little bit more optimism that we will see a rebound in the earnings growth we had in the first quarter? luke: so far, i don't think the 2020 estimates are worth the digital think they are printed on. instance, and a lot of these involve chopping your eps forecast while raising

your price target. this just speaks to the idea that strategists are going in on the idea that multiples are being supported. so far, that is the set up. caroline: talking of price targets, romaine was pointing about -- was pointing out that goldman might -- are you expecting people to admit that the s&p 500 can maintain these record levels? luke: i think you will see a continuation of upward revisions of year-end targets. it is about the fed. at the beginning of the year, if you were close to 3000, people thought you were crazy. now, above 3000, people wonder if you will raise. romaine: if joe weisenthal were here, which he's not, he's at home on twitter talking about

joy, hers and almond would look ahead to friday, the jobs report. the new economic data we are going to get through the month, do you think that is going to change people's mindset to how this market is going? i think the wednesday path -- if it was just 25 basis points, i think this is a meeting the fed would like to say, no price cut -- no press conference, this is just 25 points. to the extent that he strongly hints that more is coming, the markets will be able to latch on the data will, take on more meeting the communications will kind of inform how much we have to pay

attention to the data. caroline: i'm sure the fed remains ever data-dependent. we thank lou kawa and ed clissold. now, let's give a quick check on the rest of the earnings and repeat what we heard. amgen second quarter earnings-per-share beating every analyst out there. $3.97. they are refining full-year outlook. shares rise after hours. gilead, another biotech company, reporting adjusted earnings-per-share second quarter that the estimate. however, they are down a little bit. that is perhaps just increasing it slightly, so we will have to get to the bottom of what investors are searching through. romaine: some warm earnings -- some more earnings out.

a global snack company beating estimates on second quarter revenue. it is also raising its full-year outlook. shares up about 4% after hours. there organic revenue, the number that a lot of people pay attention to, up about 4.6%. estimate was 3.5%. caroline: your favorite chocolate bar. ,omaine: i like the trident that's the same company, right? "what'd you miss?" is next where we will look at apple's quarterly report. this is bloomberg. ♪

york,ne: live from new i'm caroline hyde. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. joe weisenthal is off today. caroline: markets closed muted but lower. s&p 500 off by 0.25%. piecing together another day full of earnings with apple taking the spotlight later this hour. the world on edge as the fed appears to respond to the first rate cut in a decade. joe biden's democratic rivals are coming for him. we are debt -- we are live in detroit. let's begin with some of these earnings. biotech front and center with amgen beating

earnings-per-share. it seems they are refining their full-year outlook as well, second quarter revenue beating expectations. up a percentage point, gilead sciences, they managed to beat in terms of their numbers. romaine: electronic arts, the videogame company, their first quarter numbers coming in above estimate. second quarter forecast is going to come in below estimates. however, they are standing by their full-year forecast. a lot of concern here about apex legends not living up to the hype. flow, nowr free cash sees about 5% growth. to 5%.sly a range of 3% let's turn to the big eating of the week, the fomc.

they are going to decide tomorrow on interest rates. economists predicting a quarter-point rate cut. economists say that is not enough. they say a small rate cut will do very little to counteract actions by europe and china. 25 basis points, is that going to be enough to keep this economy going? >> i think whether they cut or not, the economy will continue to grow at a decent pace. the fed is cutting rates just to respond to market expectations. everyone is expected the rate cut and they have to follow at this point. last year, tight and policy probably a little bit too hard. this is a modest course correction rather than an

attempt to revive economic growth. attempt: what about an to revive inflation expectations. yelena: i don't think that would walk. -- the work. -- i don't think that will work. this morning, we got the data on personal consumption and we saw has core pce deflator picked up a little bit. it is still very little -- it is still below 2% but there seems to be some hope that it is off the trough. romaine: pretty much everybody i have spoken to in the market says the actual number, the actual cuts, is a little bit less relevant than what powell says the press conference, how he defends the cuts, how he posits the future for the fed. task tomorrow's

will be to persuade the markets that the fed is not engaging in a full easing cycle. they might do one or a couple of rate cuts and he needs to tell the market that is going to happen. so, right now, the markets are expecting more than that. fedn economic outlook, the does not need to do more. caroline: will you want to tame all the market expectations in one fell swoop? he hasn't had great performances in his last press conferences. yelena: it is a great opportunity now with the economy doing just fine, the data, consumer confidence. it is a great opportunity for him to do it right now to persuade the markets that the

fed may not need the full easing cycle, rather than wait until took on and be like, we two rate cuts. ofaine: are we at risk creating a little bit of an asset bubble. there is concern that this was directed less at the economy, more at the market. price inflation in the stock get and bond market -- stock market and bond market right now. yelena: it is always easy for the fed to type monetary policy -- two tighten monetary policy. romaine: can they do that under trump? yelena: i think they would do it if needed. a couple of rate cuts, weakening trade-weighted dollar. caroline: always great for your

insights. we will have coverage of the fed decision tomorrow starting at 2:00 p.m. eastern. coming up, progressive showdown. the second round of democratic debates kick off tonight and the stakes have only gotten higher. to detroit for the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: breaking news. amd out with earnings. a big chipmaker and second-best performing stop -- performing stock in the s&p 500. $1.53 billion, slightly above estimates of $1.52 billion.

under the hood, if you look at the computer and graphics revenue, as well as some of the other numbers, they might be looking for something a little bit stronger. you are seeing the shares back off by about 7% after hours. caroline: time for a look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. terminal users are reading about the uss gerald ford. only two out of 11 elevators installed needed for the munitions. it is another setback for contractor huntington angles, as well as the navy. they said they planned on testing all the elevators this month. a story on a coal plant in boston that may be reborn in a different form. sere are plans to put in posh tores, apartments, space for events, and a promenade.

the project's first stage may be complete in 2022. tictoc on twitter is reporting that nhl commissioner roger goodell is headed to court to talk about the infamous no-call that help the rams beat the saints in the nfc championship. the lawyer is seeking damages that he will donate to charity. other lawsuits about the no-call have made it to federal court and have failed. today's another one of top stories, the stage being set in detroit for the second round of the u.s. democratic debate. night one will feature the first matchup. kevin cirilli joins us live from

detroit. we've got elizabeth warren, bernie sanders, kamala harris. who has the most to gain from tonight's debate. on elizabethill be warren and bernie sanders as they will be standing side-by-side and pitching themselves to the same part of the party, the progressive base. senator sanders has called himself a democratic-socialist but senator warren says she is a capitalist who believes in rules and wants to see structural changes. she brought out a wall street plan that calls for re-imposing glass-steagall. this all comes at a time when the intensity of the democratic primary. these candidates need a breakout moment to qualify for debates in the fall. caroline: that the cap moment last time was kamala harris

versus joe biden. are we expecting anything like that this time? the first 2020 debate was lacking in fireworks. >> tonight, you will see the south bend mayor of indiana, buttigieg, he will try to have a breakout moment tonight along with former congressman beto o'rourke who has struggled to take hold in the polls. tomorrow night, once again it will be that showdown between vice president joe biden and senator, harris. but also be on the lookout for julian castro, former congressman and hud secretary, as well as cory booker, democrat from new jersey. i have been struck by the back between the poker campaign -- bidenoker campaign, the

campaign. tonight will be very much on who will make that appeal. romaine: this was a huge loss to hillary clinton and the democrats. we know trump has been doing well in michigan and some of these rust belt states. what will the democrats have to prove to some of their party faithful and those on the right. point, what they are talking about in washington. i will democrats flip back states like -- how will democrats flip back states like ohio, michigan, pennsylvania? joe biden says he can make the page most effectively but senator bernie sanders says back in the 2016 presidential cycle, he defeated hillary clinton in this very state during the

democratic primary. city, this istor justcial battleground not in the primary season but in a general election matchup. romaine: before we go to break, amd, we want to get you up on that. the reported earnings. shares down. forecast for the quarter coming in a little bit less than what analysts had expected. 1.75 ilion dollars. the estimate was for $1.94 billion.- 1.94 caroline: when we come back, apple's earnings report. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: we are moments away from apple's second quarter. fiscal numbers already breaking for the technology giant. we are seeing the forecast for fourth-quarter revenue, the midpoint above analyst estimates. revenue, 53.8 dollar.llars -- billion shares coming in line, 10 billion overall. shares rising after hours. romaine: the average estimate was for 61.

the high end of that ranges well above that estimate. for the thirdenue quarter came in strong. the estimate was for 26.54 billion. caroline: this is the first time we have seen since 2012 that iphone revenue is less than half of total revenue. they are more reliant on digital, more reliant on wearables. mored we get some expertise? romaine: we've got john butler who has been sitting here patiently while we ayp up -- while we yap about it. john: these results look good to be. like you, i was watching the forecast. i wanted to make sure things look good for next quarter.

me, the guide looks good. they could actually grow. i think when people missed here was that last year was this incredibly strong year for apple. they had a strong sales cycle. quarter in and quarter out, they highbooking high tea's -- iphone when in the where theyike this could potentially grow even low single digits, that to me is good news. i'm looking beyond this year. it is going to be a tough year only year really, as we get into next year and the introduction , i think there is

a lot more good news coming down the road. caroline: i'm looking how china did overall in terms of their numbers. billionchina saw $9 worth of sales overall, down from 9.5 billion we had seen in the previous year. clearly still a slight concern. are we expecting to see much in terms of trade tariffs? key for apple, a big number and a key region for them. they are navigating a tough year because china was also a very strong grower last year. they are up against tough comps and they have the trade war to worry about. tablek them coming to the

takes a little pressure off the risk that the iphone gets hit with tariffs here. growth, ifreturn to we get a trade deal, by next year. ,omaine: we have dan ives executive director of research us by phone.s just going through the release real quickly, tim cook is quoted as saying that he really see exciting period with major launches across the platform. what do you see for this company that is maybe looking to keep the momentum going? dan: this quarter is a major step in the right direction not only in terms of stabilization with china but in terms of the forecast. the installed base is really the key to the value of apple going forward.

this is a feather in the cap for the bulls. caroline: i'm looking at how they are crowing. biggest june quarter ever, accelerating growth from wearables. toically, they are trying talk down the iphone. rua buyer and the fact that it is all about services going forward? the meat ands potatoes of the story. this 1-2 punch is really the key value, the key reason we think apple is a stock that makes new highs. 350 million iphones are coming up for upgrade in the next few months. the guidance for the next quarter, that is something that even the bulls are surprised they got it this strong. romaine: there has been a lot of

talk about whether apple can really be considered the growth company that it once was, whether it is a value stock? this is still a company that delivers a ton of cash, a ton of sales. when you look at what tim cook has been able to extend since the passing of steve jobs, where do you see this company going as far as a consumer brand? more around services. it is going to be about services and content. that is really what they are trying to do with their streaming service. 900 million active iphones. it is about monetization of that installed base. if you look right now, iphone continues to be the rock of two

broader despite many of our peers -- the rock of gibralter. caroline: it is interesting that we are seeing that apple is reporting a significant miss on the unit sales of about $3 billion year-over-year decline. we know the third quarter will be exciting in terms of iphones, people extending along they have the iphone for. is that a worry? >> it was a miss relative to expectations, but i think the numbers and particularly the guidance speaks for itself. i think any concern about apple getting derailed by weakness in the iphone, at least in the near term, is kind of debunked by this guidance. it really is good guidance.

as dan was saying, it really is shifting now to the services story. leverage thely iphone's by coming out with new services. what i am watching for the fall are the new content services, the original productions in apple tv plus, and that aggregator as they call it, apple channels, where you will be able to buy hbo, showtime, other paid services, and get them all on a single app. romaine: let's talk a little bit more about apple plus and some of the services content they are working on. they are introducing some of this content and these products into a field that has gotten pretty crowded.

>> in terms of streaming, you getting maxed out, the average has 2-3 subscriptions. apple thinks that is 100 million consumers they can get onto that platform in the next few years. really, it is a distribution platform. that is part of cook and cupertino's focus, a distribution platform of services and a better monetized installed base. today, we think the installed base is only about 10 or 15% penetrated on services. besides just guidance, this will go up and down with china in terms of apple. given all the noise, that is really the headline here.

i am also interested in what you might think would be returned to investors longer-term. the ceo crowing about how they returned to shareholders in the quarter. do you expect more money to come to the investor base, or do you ?xpect more to be reinvested on m&a.xpect more they will continue to do a buyback. this is a company that is going to do more m and a going forward. the defensive to the offensive. that is what you are starting to see this quarter, going into a massive 5g cycle next year. john: i think dan makes a good point. they have a lot of cash, they can make acquisitions.

i always ask, do they want to build or buy in certain verticals? i'm thinking content, there's a lot out there for sale that can really help them scale up. romaine: ok. john, you will stick with us a little bit longer. dan, thank you for your time today. now just a quick check on apple shares, up 2% here in after hours. around that 2:15 mark. investors are embracing this somewhat. for a stock this size, that is not a bad move. they rallied yesterday in terms of anticipation of these numbers but the fourth quarter forecast is impressive. romaine: bloomberg subscribers can follow this on our tliv blog . for our viewers here on bloomberg tv, we will be back with more on apple's results.

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romaine: we just want to recap some of the other earnings. forecastting earnings, that came in a little bit less than what investors were expecting. moving down about 6.5% after hours. nvidia also seems to be falling. that shiphe folks in space decline. caroline: we've got to bring it back to what we just got in terms of apple's numbers. beating in terms of fourth quarter forecast. some maneuverings within the third quarter. it looks like iphone revenue didn't quite live up to

expectations, neither did services. it did show 4% year on year for john butler in china. do we care that much about slight weakness in greater china? 20% of sales, a trade war that has been raging on, i would say the latest figures are good. in terms of iphone, we are rolling into an upgrade in september. i think the next really big cycle is in 2020 when we get a 5g iphone. the focus in the fall for me will be the new content services. there are areas you can .2 of concern, but nothing too great. romaine: what about the cost structure? we know apple had to move things around a little bit because of

the trade war with china. what are we going to hear on the conference call with regard to costs? i think they will talk a little bit about how they will begin to diversify the base with china. they are going to spread their bets. it makes sense to do that based on what is going on here. particularly as we get into these latest talks. i think tim cook will talk a little bit about how they are looking at other regions. vietnam, malaysia perhaps, all the typical regions that offer low cost manufacturing. that kind of lift takes at least a year. i think they have been doing it quietly and i think activity will pick up. caroline: tim said, we are confident about what is to head

interesting, europe slowing down given the economy and the fact that we are waiting for next quarter's releases. talk about what we are expecting .n the next set of iphones this i'm glad you raised point because what we typically sell with apple was new every two. a brand-new iphone, a hardware update every two years. said we are now on a three year cycle. i think, this year, we are probably going to see a feature upgrade to the hardware. maybe camera systems, fingerprint sensors, but i don't think you will see the major upgrade like we saw with the

iphone x. i think the big lift on that front is coming in september 2020 with the 5g version of the iphone. caroline: we wonder how the intel purchase integrates into all of that. butler of thank john bloomberg intelligence. we thank you. let's get a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. an elon musk tweet about tesla production raises questions about his deal with regulators. he says he hopes to produce 1000 solar roofs by years and week. needs about production approval. png beauty and health care products, increasing prices and three percentage points as well. l'oreal says north

american retail sales slowed down at the same time as they reported the highest first half growth. that is your business flash update. another story on our radar winning three x bankers shakeups backing to hollywood. raising nearly $15 million to bankroll content. unsurprising perhaps that they are quite good at getting funding. this is all about using ai to work out what would sell in terms of content. romaine: this shows you how all of these content companies have to think differently about how you create and market tv shows. these are focused a lot more on mobile. apple moving the content, you kind of wonder, these are the

guys i feel like apple should talking to. they seem like they are on top of it. caroline: they are on top of it and in a growing market in india where mobiles are becoming more prevalent. romaine: another big day of earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪

amg grabbingle and the earnings headlines after the bell. projecting revenue in the current quarter that topped analyst estimates. abigail doolittle joins us to talk about how the results are affecting. let's talk about apple. everyone talking about the fourth quarter. fiscal fourth-quarter looking pretty good. higher astock popping little bit. one of the biggest influences is the whole ecosystem of apple

suppliers. amd, of connect that to course a little bit of a disappointing forecast, it looks like the chip sector overall could be a little bit ahead of itself. this chart makes that case today somewhat powerful way. this chart is 8196. what we are looking at a yellow is apple. in white, the stocks over the last year. havee these two segments treated together. last year, we see that apple greatly outperformed the stocks. the stock perhaps getting ahead of itself with regard to apple. romaine: that is interesting, that little bump on the far right is what we had that record last week -- when we hit that record last week. there was concerned about china, didn't need to be as concerned. abigail: that is a very

interesting point. there is a reason to think that dram is bottoming. micron put up a decent quarter at the end of june. it was less bad. there were concerns that it really was plummeting. intel, their results also supported that idea. the stock is up about 38% on the year. the s&p 500, less than 20%. you may think that investors get a little bit ahead of themselves on those fears. caroline: we will see who wins out tomorrow in terms of the apple effect. romaine: obviously huge waiting across so many. abigail: it should provide a bit of a bullish tailwind. of course, the biggest could be the fed. we were just talking to matt

from headwaters volatility, and he said options aren't really pricing in a move. we have another chart, a pretty interesting chart, actually our most popular chart on the terminal. in blue, the s&p 500. in yellow, the vix. in white comedy skew index. that index is considered to be the panic index. but only goes one month out it tells you some investors are starting to have a little bit of apprehension about what could be next. abigail, always great to get you and your awesome charts. tomorrow, credit suisse reporting second-quarter results. romaine: the fed announcing its rate decision tomorrow. caroline: that is all from "what'd you miss?" romaine: "bloomberg technology" is up next.

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emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." next hour,n the apple coming in with third-quarter results. revenue from wearables passing the ipad for the first time. revenue from services hitting an all-time record. sales in china not as terrible as some had feared. plus, the chairman