just to give you a sense of that wasile it was, the most since january 4 of 2019. the second-biggest swing in the dow intraday of the year. down 1.2%.es the biggest move in the s&p 500 since may. taken with the volumes we have seen. were up 40% volumes compared to the last 2010 average -- 20 day average. badhe selloff isn't that with the exception of some of the chip stocks. that seemed less connected to jay powell and were connected to earnings. cracks withstand deeper. chip stocksking the that remained was just talking about. let's look at the today chart down two days and a row.

the major averages might be down with an 1% of the stocks of down more than 3%. a combination of the earnings and fed. we said yesterday it seems that the stock is ahead of itself. the apple quarter was good but not amazing. take a look at the fed area the stoxx will only clip. these are the more momentum they reacted to the comments from jay powell to a greater degree than the major averages at the lows down more than 4%. the worst day in more than two toths areas the stocks tend lead. going back to march of last year before the volatility. the last all-time high prior to this year. the stocks and the s&p are highly correlated but the s&p went on to make all-time highs at the stock went lower.

due to be something volatility ahead for the s&p 500. resultst to look at the of the mixed messages from jay powell. they initially crept up then went up quite considerably when jay powell talked about how this was a midcycle rate cut. and it came back down when he said that doesn't just mean one. what is the meaning of all of this? the likelihood of slower growth ahead. the gap between three-month and tenure treasury yields. it typically looked at as the indicator of dental recession risk area and it did get back into negative territory after jay powell concluded his remarks. that seems to be a feeling they would not cut rates that much leading to less longer-term growth. cut isthat the 25 basis in the books, there is uncertainty about trade.

the most susceptible to that is soybeans. soybeans have fallen and as you know, china and the u.s. completed trade talks for the week today. the chinese confirmed a commitment to buy more u.s. agricultural exports but today soybean prices fell back to the lows in may. prices are tumbling on a long-term basis as well. traders remain skeptical that china won't buy any meaningful amounts of american farm goods. trade talks pick right back up in september. >> thank you for that. jason talked about how the fed goal is to keep the economic expansion going but it should really be saying it's to keep the market cycle going as well. do you think that the feds

mandate by also be to make up for the uncertainty caused by the trade discussions or lack of progress on trade? >> i don't think it is necessarily a makeup that it is clear that they want to be preemptive with regard to that issue. i think jay powell added a phrase in the press conference saying trade tensions are at a we want to see them at a simmer. the need to act because of trade has been reduced. that is why it surprised me that we had an index hitting multiyear highs today. it didn't seem like anyone was worried about it. >> when you look at what happened today, you look at yesterday with regards to the trade front, while it didn't get what the market wanted, we did

get more clarity as to where we stand today. when you are looking forward for the rest of the year and the earnings coming in, how do you position yourself for the longer-term knowing what we know today? >> that's what investors need to do. what we have today is the fed -- i have heard phrases best phrases from investors saying we need to hold back. the fed has a financial stability mandate partly as a legacy of 08. what they are staring in the face is how do we deal with that on a short-term versus long-term basis? what they have come to is we can keep cutting but we need to take some of those cuts off the table to make sure people understand what we view as the u.s. economy in the context of a global economy. if we get trade tensions increasing, fine. if it takes off of german growth, that is not their mandate. we need to look today at earnings and forward cash flows.

in 2019, three quarters of the rally has been on pe expansion on the back of lower rates. only a quarter has been on earnings. and beingat the fed an investor, that is what i look at going forward. we are still waiting for clock -- qualcomm earnings being released. in terms of china to one side, we were just hearing about gold as well. commodities. how much are we seeing that being drawn into -- qualcomm has just come out with its numbers. revenue $4.9 billion. that is a mess. estimates were $5.1 billion. revenue a miss but this is a company that perhaps all eyes were on the appeal of the ftc which could of and its entire

business model. >> we might have to wait a little bit longer to get more clarity. this is kind of a regulatory play right now with regard to the future of this company. >> this also means that if qualcomm continues to fall, that could mean more losses for the philadelphia semiconductor index and an etf that tracks chip companies. is qualcomm representative of the rest of the sector or is it idiosyncratic because of its own issues? >> romain is right. there is a cliff event going on here. looking at the revenue miss and the stockshat to generally, this is about a manufacturing slowdown globally. this is a cyclical sector. that is an indicator. earnings and revenue are lower and that is an indicator of manufacturing slowdown in china, the united states, and europe. ofearlier it was a question

whether this is a sector rotation. what are you thinking in terms of what we saw in the selloff in chip stocks today? >> today looked like sell everything except the u.s. dollar reaction. i do agree with the point that selling chips right now, it would fall into the -- we anticipated too much that easing. that's how you could potentially tie the two together. all of the momentum we had in the popular traits has now reversed. >> i wanted to recap the qualcomm headlines. the revenue number of $4.9 billion false short of the estimate of $5.1 billion. qualcomm also said it is not reached a final agreement with

huawei. it is far short. qualcomm for now stays lower in the after-hours trade. >> let's look at fitbit. orthe past they saw seven eight. they have fallen 12% in after-hours trading. cutting is full forecast. now it is seeing an adjusted loss per share of $.31 to $.38. the consensus as most of 1.5 8 billion. >> thank you both for joining us. that does it for the closing bell. what'd you miss is next.

also some bright spots in europe's banking sector. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> live from bloomberg world headquarters i'm caroline hyde. stocks plummeted on the back of the fed announcement not dovish enough. jay powell delivers a rate cut. now is the bank of england's turn. credit suisse and --

detroit debates clashes on health care. we begin with the fed cutting rates as expected for the first time since the financial crisis. jay powell defending that move. >> we decided today to lower the target for the federal funds rate by one quarter of 1% to ensure against downside risks. with do seemnsions to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy. the evil in a different way. also inflation running below target area we see those as threats to what is clearly a favorable outlook. we believe this is the right move for today and we think it will serve the three ends that i mentioned. some of those comments

sounded dovish. at the markets are taking it as more hawkish than anticipated. what are you worried? the market sought the press conference as somewhat confusing and sending a muddled message about what the fed target rate will be. the statement that accompanied the decision red dovish in my mind that once he took the microphone, he sent a less clear message. he talked about this action as being part of a midcycle correction. but he walked back back to talk about the possibility of further future rate hikes. >> was part of the problem here that maybe the cut we got wasn't as data dependent as it should have been? >> the data by a margin has been

strong. the fed new that was going to be a problem even the expected policy of a rate cut. what we heard from jay powell previously i thought would lead him to suggest we are fundamentally trying to recalibrate policy lower in order to sustain the expansion and see inflation pick up more than what the market and service anticipate. he stumbled through that message to some extent area he talked about how strong the economy was and how this is a myth weikel adjustment but then he said maybe it is going to be more than one. the market left his press conference being confused about how much of additional easing the fed would deliver this year. that is what you got them are -- the more hawkish interpretation. overall, the market i think was left searching for a clearer communication out of jay powell today. this feels to me as though

far more important to look at the data on thursday and friday. -- betterbetter and than expected labor data, does the market settle higher? >> if we see another payroll report that is also quite strong, the market might think that the fed won't deliver on as much of the easing that is currently anticipated. the fed will be focusing on global conditions. they still seem quite weak but i think the market after today is going to be a bit more clarity to understand what the is reaction will be. i think it is a more data dependent fed and the market will look at officials to help clarify the message. when you look at the positioning we saw in the market leading up to this decision over

the last two or three months particularly the pylon to the debt market and the bond market, do you think that some of those traits could potentially be unwound or do you think people will still stay heavily invested in u.s. treasuries as we move deeper into the year? market tot the rates remain quite low and to rates -- for rates to decline further. i think the fed will take some steps to clarify the message and reiterate that it is still in a dovish mode. it doesn't see uncertainty in the outlook and there is very little the fed learned in the last couple of days it would make it any more confident in global developments ranging from issues regarding trade, brexit, just a global manufacturing slowdown. all of those are going to be key sources of uncertainty that the fed will continue to watch. in order to sustain the position that you referred to, what you

really need to see is a fed that tries to clarify the message, send a more dovish signal and i think the relatively elevated expectations in the market can remain. >> a guest was on saying the 10 year yields are going to percent. what do you see? what in the near term, we penciled in a 185 forecast by the end of q3. we think the trade uncertainty should dissipate or at least not get worse. that the economy should start to show continued strength and further strength deeper into q4 and q1. in that context, we think you will see rates come off their lows and rise to some extent. yearyear we do see the 10 215 only rising to about

the way to 225 or 250 somewhere in that range. i am not of the view that we are going to 1% yet. i think we would see clearer signs of a global recession in order for us to move in that direction. we still remained relatively constructive on the outlook especially given our view that the fed will continue to ease and we'll try to sustain the expansion by at least two more rate cuts this year. great to get you on today. >> we have some breaking news. u.s. imposing more sanctions on iran. interviewn gave an just a week or so ago to us. he is nows though being imposed sanctions upon as well. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> earnings from qualcomm are disappointing. it could be falling as much as 12 to 26%. that is a big mess. why? 5g is coming and people are buying fewer smartphones in the run-up. we will see how that unfolds. theceo has been saying near-term market is soft. huawei is taking market share in china. >> they have been struggling for a while with an increase in competition. their full-year revenue forecast.

>> metlife is beating expectations announcing a plan to buy $2 billion worth of shares back. have a chip equipment maker down slightly. basically in line with estimates. forecast forng it their fiscal first-quarter revenue again. those numbers are pretty much in line with estimates but not really knocking it out of the park. >> we have earnings over in europe earlier today. credit suisse having brushed off some of the doom and gloom in banking. challenges remain. every quarter has been mixed

first quarter. second quarter started quite negatively. we had a strong june. it is very contrasted. joining us now is an investment banking reporter for bloomberg. day fors been a good trading at least for credit suisse. and others. it the three names that you would normally here area and. for them to post a jump even when the u.s.. or not -- it shows that after a very painful turnaround for credit suisse, some good times ahead. >> how do we read these results? other banks in the u.s. are doing poorly. benefit from that?

x let's not get too excited about today. these were great numbers. [laughter] we had a lot of bad news here. the recent today is good is because there was a lot of worry about job cuts on wall street. citigroup being the big one giving us a big u.s. bank. we will see if other u.s. banks will follow suit and cutting jobs. there is a big wonder about if there is enough capacity in the rest of the banking environment to pick it up. while we don't expect a lot of hires, credit suisse has been hiring. we don't know if this means a bigger outlook for the rest of the year. fixed income -- doubling down on the u.s. and

putting europe to one side seems to be working. >> the u.s. is still the 100 pound gorilla in the room. i have to say that in asia with credit suisse and the wealth management unit, they saw gains there. if you asked the big european tanks whether they slumped a lot or lost shares they will say not really remember we are coming off a big number's last year whereas these other firms may have not been coming off as good comparables. >> let's talk about the interest rate environment area. we have global easing with central banks around the world. i wonder how this factors into the forecast. >> remember these companies are focusing on the consumer and trying to get as much margin as they can out of them. for bank of america and jpmorgan in the u.s. was a big deal. credit suisse doesn't have a huge u.s. will cousins.

maybe that saved them a little bit on short over here. thank you. a quick check on the latest is this flash headlines. investors want more from general electric. shares fluctuated between red and green after financial forecasts area the chief executive call the numbers a fine progress. in europe, ryanair is preparing for job cuts. pilots andne hundred flight attendants could be affected. coming up, one down one to go. the democrats will take the debate stage once more tonight in detroit. what to expect from the campaign veterans. this is bloomberg.

♪

>> i'm mark crumpton with first word news. the new york times reports that osama bin laden's son is dead. so far there is no word on how when or where he died. he was widely seen as the air to al qaeda's leadership and have repeatedly threatened the united states. in times reports that february, the state department announced a $1 billion award for information about his whereabouts. the times at that he had been killed by then but his step had not been confirmed. subcommitteesenate

clashed with the faa officials today. senators believe agency was to therential to boeing about 737 max 8 airliner. the boeing software has been implicated in two deadly crashes. >> we rely on the industry too much to do the job that we should be doing to ensure the u.s. public is safe. for the airline to get back on the air, everyone should be flying the airplane for one month to make sure we have the confidence for a passenger to get back on the plane. i'm not getting on the 737 max 8 until i think the president of boeing and all of his and her associates on and flying for a substantial time. >> the senator added that the biggest selling point for the

airplane was that it required minimum training for pilots who were already trained to fly older generation planes. at nato headquarters, the secretary-general hosted the visiting german defense minister who told reporters that the u.s. had provided details on its concept for securing maritime traffic in the persian gulf region. germany is in post-consultation with france and britain about a decision about the u.s. request whether they should be made soon. she also weighed in on tensions in the persian gulf. nato is concerned about the gulf. several nato allies have assets and the gulf. there has been no request for nato mission in the gulf. >> the german defense minister

appealed to russia and nato allies to continue to comply with the cold war area nuclear treaty days before it expires. in february, the u.s. again withdrawing from the treaty it agreed to in 1987 with the ben soviet union. washington blamed moscow for developing missiles that do not comply with the treaty. russia has until friday to destroy the new missiles. global news and four hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> a winning message to take on democraticrump area hopefuls took the stage last night in detroit. >> i don't understand why anybody goes to all the trouble of running for president of the united states just to talk about

what we can't do and shouldn't fight for. >> i think democrats win will be run on real solutions not provinces. only work on things that are workable not fairytale. >> i get tired of democrats afraid of big ideas. >> what i don't like about this argument is that we are more worried about winning an argument than winning an election. isjoining us to discuss this a political campaign veteran. fellow.w a research thank you for joining us. last night there were fireworks between elizabeth warren, bernie sanders, and everybody else read it tonight, we are getting more of a diverse cast. race will be talk about with, harris and cory booker on stage. is there a chance here that the

things they talk about, the policies they put out there will appear more to the left base or to the centrists? >> the challenge in any campaign setting when you have a debate that is relatively early in the primary cycle, you have the entire cast of characters relatively unformed. there is a premium paid on policies that are perceived to speak to the base of the democratic party. the base of those partisans who are going to be casting ballots and taking the democratic party nominee. large arecies by and going to skew to the left. maybe not as far left as bernie sanders and elizabeth moran but relatively further to the left been joe biden would be comfortable with. what we have to watch for is have the conflict between him and, harris, how does it carry out in this debate and does it

go beyond issues of race to issues of health care, immigration and the like. >> is anyone setting themselves up for the ability to beat donald trump? democrats have fought between their head and her heart. their head says they need is someone with a more centrist profile. their heart is telling them they like something like bernie sanders or elizabeth moran. they like the policies they espouse. the progressive agenda. does the head or the heart win? previously, democrats have gone with a heart and they have lost. george mcgovern, hubert humphrey, mike dukakis. the question is in this election cycle, do they pick the head over the heart and that my put them in a better position to beat donald trump. >> i want to ask you about the debate format and get your thoughts on whether you think this is a constructive way to

get the 20 candidates out onto the stage splitting them up across two different nights where you don't even have the top contenders on the same stage. >> this is a tough one. i don't know that there is any other way to do it. you may recall in 2016 there was a large field on the republican side. theyhad two debates but had the top contenders together and the other contenders on a different night. you could do it that way or the way they are doing it this year or they are mixing it up. regardless, the challenge here is you only have two hours to get to a lot of different people. even attend people is a lot. of thehe constraints size of the field, the nature of the way these debates are set up is fine. is, can we expect to get more depth of ideas and that will only happen as the

field shrinks and the debate shrinks. >> how is this all being digested by china right now? you are also looking closely at what is happening in terms of trade negotiations in the current administration and china. his china looking at the democratic party as it unfolds and thinking this could be the next person we are going to be talking with? >> i think the chinese are very keenly watching our political process. all of this is playing out in a very public way. they are able to see the same contest we are seeing in the u.s.. there is not any coincidence that we are starting to see some reporting suggesting china is trying to wait out donald trump in essence feeling like they are getting a more stable deal with whoever comes next. that will work to president trump's advantage in a political sense in the u.s. because he can say the chinese are afraid of me that's what they want to wait. there is no question from a

dollars and since perspective. the chinese may have the impression that whoever comes next is going to be easier or more predictable to deal with that donald trump. that drives their incentives during the current negotiation as well. deeper into the negotiation cycle, the harder it will be for us to expect a long-term sustainable durable deal between the u.s. and china. a short-term deal, possibly. a long-term binding deal, that is less likely. >> thank you for your expertise. up, fiat chrysler. alsoll discuss sales and what is happening with aston martin. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> let's get you a check on the latest is this flash headlines. the ram pickup truck delivered higher sales in north america than expected. carlyle group is trying to one of its rivals. it is become the first private equity giant to create one class of shares. they dropped its dual class shares as part of it switched to a corporation. shares of nordstrom jumped as well today. family of the founding are in talks to increase their stakes. >> we want to bring our viewers a quick correction. last week we spoke with conner flynn.

at that time, we said at the company's earnings missed expectations. we want to clarify that. the second quarter earnings actually beat estimates however it was the guidance midpoint for the full year that missed analyst estimates. we wanted to clarify that. >> breaking news. a barrage of abuse toward the fed. he is saying the jay powell has let us down. he says the market wanted lengthy rate cutting cycle and of course that was something that jay powell was saying we wouldn't be getting anytime soon. >> we had a sense this is not going to be trump. what the market wants to see is that jay powell is acting independently.

and they are acting based on the data. --he could continue to the in between the two references europe. looking at europe's economy, this trump really want that growth and unemployment? we will have to question. it's time for smart charts. >> joining me to talk about the s&p is walter zimmerman. thank you for joining us. you have a dramatic part that matches up to and s&p chart. perhaps some are calling it less dovish others are calling it slightly hawkish. it may be in impetus for this chart to work. the s&p itself is still confirmed to go slightly higher. that's the s&p 100.

on average more precise chart patterns. this one is no exception. each of these turns from here to here, textbook perfect. close tore extremely this pivotal resistance line. if you raise this line of attack, this goes up a little bit and you are talking about 1350- pivotal resistance 21370. if that level cannot be decisively broken. the downside risk is 950 to 930. is, is this whole thing a bull market correction or something much worse? the case for a bull market correction is an expanding triangle. abc de. only from the 950 area will a longer-term uptrend resume. >> to connect this to the s&p

500 which more of our viewers are familiar with. the s&p is confirmed for a little higher. is question i have for you analysis technical standpoint, it's supposed to break to the downside nine at 10 times. since the feds accommodation, it's breaking to the upside. is, this was a bull trap. >> if you look at some of the other ones going back over the last couple of years, on like the big one in 2007 and 2008, they have produced the move to the upside. could you see that happening here? >> i don't think so. maybe can take out 1370 that i don't the good a chance of doing that. in classical chart pattern analysis, it is a broadening top

1, 2, 3, 4, 5. then it breaks below this line and you have a big mess. >> we will see at this one works because it has been interesting to see thest decade patterns have not worked the way they're supposed to. let's see your chart of the pound. >> another big range. this is again textbook perfect pattern. from here to here. a equals c. from here to here, a equals c and the 7862 of the move up from here to here. if you take this as a big a wave, this is a big v wade. what was the high tech? 9310. that was two years ago. where is your selloff? you have this stunted abbreviated lame excuse for a all of which suggests

this has been a bull market correction. is letter a, this is b, -- other dayoined us the and he was bearish on the pound. i know technically you are not supposed to want to talk about the fundamentals what if you had to, what would you connect this to? -- iwould connect this think this chart speaks truth to power. power being certain politicians saying that a no deal brexit will be fine. we will get through it. this suggests now,. if we start all the way back you're really talking what 08 pounds per euro. now it is 92. that's a huge move. it is not a bullish. >> thank you so much for joining

us. >> thank you abigail. hisng up, and mvp uses lucrative sponsorship. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> aston martin is space and questions about its future after it slashed sales forecasts. the ceo is saying the company is ready to seek funds from a debt market if necessary. it has been brutal ever since the company did an ipo. what really were a people with aston martin? x

it gives us an appreciation for just how hard it is in the industry to compete in. you would think that the business of having a handful of high-end cars that you can charge upwards of $200,000 each for could be a distance -- business that is a decent racket. it is difficult for aston martin. this is a company that we should not forget ford caps off in the midst of the great recession. it has been passed around over the years. this is a cyclical industry and it's tough to compete and make it through these downturns. >> we are pulling together our

money. you note they are moving into the suv space. that seems like a strategy that other luxury carmakers have done. >> that is the key issue. there is a hope that this is the saving grace of them next year is they have this suv model waiting in the wind. your point, every luxury carmaker is now getting into this. it started with porsche. this is such a departure from the 9/11 but it is a huge business and it has led everyone to get into it area when you talk about a lamborghini suv, it's a crowded space. there are only so many six-figure suvs that someone can sell. >> turning from aston martin to

the world of la crosse, a la crosse mvp who started a new premier league may have cost himself has most lucrative endorsement deal. itsbalance has terminated contract saying he violated the terms of the deal by wearing the uniform from adidas. during practices and games. with one company, he is wearing gear from another company. i assume that's a big no-no. what he has done professionally is like lebron james leaving the nba and saying i'm going to start my own basketball league then pulling other players over to his leg. i will speak for him but i imagine he was probably going to ruffle some feathers in the traditional outdoor lacrosse world area this may be the consequence of that.

by warriorsored brand which was owned by new balance. that contract is being torn up. new balance has a lot of ties to the league that he left. cofounder, he and had a four teams he had an equity stake in and now only one. new balance and warrior is also the apparel provider for that league. a lot of connections there. >> it has to hurt when you have , and theme twice mvp the endorsement of your brand different brand to sponsor him although he did operate to new balance first. >> there were a lot of conversations. he originally wanted to buy the holy and those discussions fell out. where it gets iffy is all of new balance is athletes compete in uniforms that are not new balance uniforms. he takes the court every night

wearing a nike uniform and nike socks area that is the way these endorsements work. blindies have turned a eye to this particular clause almost all the time in endorsements just because a company like new balance isn't it going to be the apparel sponsor of the nba. what to create more of a need or desire to make these contracts more ironclad? >> that's a great question. i don't know if every single contract you sign has this provision. new balance typically chooses not to enforce it. or if there was something specific about his deal that made it a little different from the others. there are other lacrosse players and his league that have their own deals and from what i understand, those deals are still intact. there are a lot of questions surrounding this one. >> the bank of england takes its

turn announcing its rate decision. g.m. reporting its second-quarter earnings before the bell. bloomberg technology is up next in the u.s. area this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ emily: i'm emily chang. this is bloomberg technology technology. it qualcomm falls. we will discuss the impact of trade tensions. says thetify podcast podcast that is paying off but shares fall. wall street drills we work on its