to do anything in this market. one ecb policymaker coming out and saying the economy isn't bad enough in europe to indicate more qe and bond buying. we're still thousand 20% low the 20 day average. but before a holiday weekend. all are green. because a change, philip morris and altra are under pressure. joe: small caps doing well once again. a little but of a trend. let's dive deeper into the

action with our markets reporters. abigail, what are you watching? >> it has been a few days since we looked at the s&p 500 technicals. 50 range between the 200 and day moving average, in that range. let's look at a year and a half long chart. the history is telling for what is happening now. on the volatility happened in the winter in the spring, we saw similar, caught between the two averages. a battle between bulls and bears. neither having more information. the bulls did win for new all-time highs in september. the bears took it in the fourth quarter, going below both of those moving averages. back below the 200 day moving average. all this suggests we could see this range testing back down on the 200 day moving average. volatilemake for a september. >> i am closing it out and looking at the bloomberg dollar

index. it is rising to its highest since december. all the positive comments but the u.s.-china trade war, which is helping boost risk appetite? president trump said talks were scheduled for thursday. still no specific word on when that happened. itna earlier in the day said would not retaliate against the u.s. for the latest round of tariffs. the greenback is higher than most of its g10 peers today. hasbloomberg dollar index had a few dips during this year. it's marching hire you today. investors will be keeping a close eye on the dollar as this u.s.-china trade talk continues. i am just looking at the sector performance here. it looks like technology was leading the way for most of the day. industrials has eked out in front of technology to close 1.8%.

when we look at the top holdings, a lot of big tech names. microsoft, apple, amazon, facebook. you said your overall dance in the market is defensive. >> i hear what you are saying, but what you have to understand is when you come to the usa, you hold the russell 3000 index. the teams we have here nails us down for large to small. as representative of the top stocks in the usa. it always makes me because, but i'm not trying to second-guess that. we are going to own the market in its whole. caroline: yep to own with it

regulatory risks. what about the political risk we have seen in the u.s.? something you keep a close eye on? >> yeah. not just keep a close eye on, but take hours at night worrying about it. that is where we make asset allocation shifts. we want to be overweight in the usa versus oh -- other global markets or to be underweight global equity. volatility that is going on right now and we will get august behind us. good grief. the first thing that happened in the morning, some economic numbers, they react to the tweets that came out. ludicrous to me that -- but we are in the reality today. joe: what president trump ruined ,verybody's labor day weekend

sunday or monday, putting it all back to zero. >> i hope not. that does play into something that people are talking about in terms of the market paradigm, but typically, tariffs get announced, the market sells off, you get some improvement in talks, stocks go up, the noise ratchets back up again. you can see that reflected in options pricing right now. for more close to the money options, the implied volatility on those are very high compared to the money options. traders are pricing in the kind of violence chop we had to continue. that's something you see looking at options on the ftx right now. scarlet: whatever president trump says or does her tweets is beyond our control. look at the holdings

you do have, you control what you can. talk about what you want to see happen at facebook? that's a lawsuit we have been following closely. we have been the lead plaintiff couple of times and lawsuits and gone after companies for governance changes. we have owned facebook before. we will own it after this lawsuit. we are really interested in the improvements to the company. it's about management. some control at the board level around management. not having them put their best friends in the board, but people that can ask tough questions. it has had a powerful impact on the globe. somebody needs to be more responsible for how they run it. we will give it a shot. we will see what the courts say.

tough but serious investor. we will hold management accountable. caroline: we've been holding uber's ceo accountable two years after the job. uber is a company you have it -- increase your exposure to. what do you make of these companies such as we work at pellet gun -- peloton? seemingly technology-based businesses that you have to take exposure to. are they managed -- being managed in the right way? are you willing to take these risks? >> we often on these as private companies with a venture capital portfolio. when they go public, they shifted over into our public equity portfolio. we own them in both places. we have been vocal we are not thrilled with the governance and the way these are structured. ofthink they should get rid dual class shares. we said to our vc partners, they should put more accountable

people, top executives on the board of advisors. we appreciate that a lot of times the venture capital founder stay on because they understand the company. you really have to transition. when you are going public, you are taking money from widows and orphans. of the goal of the sec. you have to be more attentive to them and operated as a long-term company. these tech companies are a challenge. the governance is weak. we have challenged them on quite a few social issues about how they work with their employees. you have to think about these things. >> you say invest in these on both sides of the eye-opener get's the time and ability to impose discipline on these companies that before they go public or do you have more leverage to do that and impose governance then?

once they go public, the cat seems to be out of the bag. we try to have a voice before they go public. in venture capital, we are a small player. the laws and rules in california really reduce our venture capital. that capital is so open to those firms that they would be other investors whose family are not u.s. and don't care about the governance once it goes public because they won't own it. we try to put it out there, but we don't have the control to influence it as much. we are more effective when it comes into the public markets. we can speak openly on the press and other areas to get them to change their behavior. what's an example of a company that does corporate governance right in the tech sector which could be a model. christopher: i don't have a good answer to that.

scarlet: we will make sure we follow up on that one. we have some breaking news. auto beauty sinking 15% after cutting its full eps cortes -- forecast. a consumer company, a consumer facing company that comes in with a full year earnings per share view that misses the lowest analyst estimate. caroline: let's have a quick look at what is happening in terms of the world. president trump is set to participate in the establishment of the u.s.-based command. that's being held in the rose garden. we will continue to monitor the event. we can watch it on bloomberg. that does it for the closing bell.

romaine bostick is stepping in with what you miss. we have around about today's retail earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪

[laughter] ♪ caroline: live from --scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. romaine: i romaine bostick. scarlet: here's a snapshot of how the u.s. stocks closed on the day. green all around. the nasdaq higher in about trade talks. president trump has more trade dialogues. consumer details

the look strong but sales could be jeopardizing the crucial holiday. ahead. kongus days since the hong protest began, longer than the occupy movement. we dig into one etf that tracks asia's financial hub. romaine: u.s. stocks rallied today. investors hope for progress in the trade talks. market sentiment remains delicate. joining us now is the chief investment officer for deutsche bank. we have seen a tight range in markets over the past month. we are headed for a good week. i'm wondering, when you look at this range we are in and you look at market sentiment, you look at the near term what is the catalyst that can break us free from this range? >> it will be tough.

the catalyst seems far away. a couple of things can happen. you pointed out, we have been in this range. would be a one copperheads of trade agreement between the u.s. and china. thisseems unlikely at point. second, there would be some level of corporate profit. a lot of talk is being done in terms of yield curve. there is an earnings curve. look at the next earning in the trading 12 month, is that going in the right direction? that has been missing. for us to see that, businesses need to feel more comfortable about their spending, that will only come with regards to trade talk. scarlet: it's all one big circle. i have some headlines. president trump is canceling his trip to poland as hurricane

dorian heads to florida. he is not going to florida. vice president mike pence will be. according to people familiar with the matter, the president is canceling his trip as the hurricane heads toward florida. going back to the trade discussion, has hour-by-hour for what counts as a successful resolution to trade talks been lowered because of how long it has dragged out for? deepak: even today, there was no meaningful progress. just because there's a meeting it made the markets rally. would have been a market moving event. feel thes so low and i chinese to the extent we can think, they have gotten to a point where they don't know how to negotiate.

they are not eager to come to a trade agreement. they're quite unwilling in certain nontariff related seecles and i really don't anything into the 2020 elections. joe: in light of the big rally today, you get some people saying, how stupid are these traders that trade tensions are melting away? are up 2%hand, stocks in over a year. thatan make the argument they had arrested what had been a good rally for a few years. to think inventors are naive a people are not giving enough perspective on the impact trade has had on the market. that might be the case. more recently, people have been paying attention to investors and everyone else involved.

of that isin terms quite critical. that's one of the reasons why we don't think this is the markets top. last 20 years, 1987, 2007,op 2019, it goes out with a bang. 20 plus percent rally before the market tops part -- tops. then you see corrections, pullbacks, their market. this does not look to me as a markets top. having said that, the next couple of months are quite concerning for a whole host of reasons. that the fedld be cutting to aggressively might be a case for disappointment for some. be seen howmains to third-quarter earnings will shape out. it's supposed to be the worst off at of this year's earnings.

that's another reason to be more cautious. don't panic over the yield curve. deepak: i don't have any panic over the yield curve. today, the numbers close to 17 trillion. it has to go somewhere. a big dent in terms of our yield curve. a whole host of things are related to it. that's one of the key reasons why we see this sort of panic. for me, it is not just a historical perspective of how it could be a recession. it has a lot to do with the overseas bond market. ago,et: 7 trillion a year north of 16 trillion now. which will come first? nominal negative yielding bonds or recession?

recession arts are one in three at best. even change given today's spending numbers. at a lot of forward-looking indicators, not flagging red. of spending power. the labor markets are strong. one thing i would be paying close attention to would be the market dynamics. that's one thing that starts to shift in the opposite direction. romaine: we have to leave it there. some other breaking news here. this is for all of yankees fans. disney has agreed to sell it off to a group led by sinclair broadcasting and yankee global enterprises. this is a partnership that is buying up the regional sports network.

is $3.5 million. we will be back shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: jso capital partners

is out. leaving.dman is he will remain the chairman of their business the velvet company and be a senior advisor to blackstone will have to fork up and vested stock at the year. for more on goodman and other stories on wall street, let's bring in our banking reporter. how much of a surprise is it that he departed? >> it's a long time coming. they have passed down a lot of leadership to joyce scott. people have to move on on wall street.

he wants to form his own family office. we are seeing that with banking executives. joe: they have done extraordinarily well over the last decade. what was their secret sauce? what did they bring to the table that allowed them to capture so much value? a long've done this for time and they a lot less competition when they started. they're probably the second largest on wall street. apollo is close to $200 billion. after the crisis, banks pulled back entire credit markets lended last two different companies. jso dove into that void and was able to fill a lot of it. romaine: let's talk to ray dalio and his alpha fund. it's not as alpha as people wanted to be. sonali: i really wanted to point out kathy burton on our hedge fund team had a story in january

on a tiny pension fund in california pulling their entire investment from this fund. that was after a good year. he made the wrong bet on interest rates, but he's romaine: not really romaine: one. why are people voting against interest rates? they think the bond rally has gone too far, but he made a pretty critical bet early on. wasn't everybody making that bet? everyone was making that bet that they were going to rise. leaderk of america thought that he doubted the fed was going to cut a few months ago. romaine: but if you bond fund manager and you can just put your glass on it. joe: the ones who did that made a lot of money. the only way you loses by trying to outsmart it. sonali: a lot of macro funds were up this month. that's why pure alpha hurts a little bit more than it normally would. ubs is elevating more

female bankers in order to push a diversity program of its leadership. tell us about ms. harper. sonali: she is the lead of the asset management effort. she came in 2017. she is a trading executive. she stayed at citigroup for more than 20 years. now she is joining the executive committee at ubs. she is in the u.s.. to see you join the executive committee is a good thing. she is in a business that they are looking to expand. potential deals in that business, more hiring in that business. aarlet: she's in charge of business that is a priority. love hearing that. story on the radar for those of us in new york is a train in gotham. there has been an exodus of people leaving the new york city

metro area. 277 people move out every single day. that's the biggest out of all of the cities in the u.s.. u.s. in the romaine: and i still can't get on the highway. scarlet: los angeles is number two. chicago is number three. joe: who would leave l.a.? scarlet: anyone who hates traffic. places where home prices and taxes are lower. cost of living, quality of life. scarlet: joe is pondering l.a.. before we get to that, we'll get you back to some breaking news. this is the yes network, the regional sports network that progress the x games in new york.

it's being bought by a consortium led by sinclair. this is bloomberg. ♪

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own home. order now to get big savings - but only for a limited time. just go to leesa.com today. you need this bed. ♪ i am mark crumpton with first word news. a camera on the international space station has captured dramatic pictures of hurricane dorian. forecasters say it could reach category four with wind speeds expected to reach 130 miles per hour across florida. the governor has declared a state of emergency in all 67 counties. forecasters who say it could bring more than eight inches of rain to the southeastern coast of florida, with one foot possible in some places. president trump said the u.s.

will reduce american troops in afghanistan and the administration is getting close to a deal with the taliban. u.s. forces would withdraw more than half of the troops stationed in the region. nestor trump also said there might be further reductions. syrian state run media and war monitors say the government is pressing ahead with their military offensive in idlib province, following yesterday's airstrikes, which killed 12 and wounded 34. the united nations has more than five hundred 50 civilians have been killed since the offensive began in april. federal health officials are issuing a national warning against marijuana use by adolescents and pregnant women as more states legalize some form of use. the concentration of thc in marijuana has tripled over the past few decades, the

science suggests marijuana use carries more risks than ever. it is a fundamentally different product, both in potency and methods of use then one existed several decades ago. calledsecretary marijuana "a dangerous drug." the warning comes as legal marijuana has grown to a $10 billion industry in the u.s., with two thirds of states legalizing it, mainly for medical uses. an increasing number of states and localities are allowing personal recreational use. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. more on the developing story, the new york yankees, sinclair, and amazon are buying the yes network from disney. let's bring in our expert all

things media. paul, disney got these regional networks from 21st century fox and paid a premium, but had a hard time selling them off. this is a big deal. >> this is the biggest of the regional sports networks disney acquired. in order to get the deal done, they had to divest the regional sports networks. they sold a bunch of those networks six months ago to sinclair broadcast group, then had to do this yes network separate because it is such a big deal, three point $5 billion in enterprise value. sinclair got some partners, amazon, in addition to the yankees, so the yankees are buying back the majority of the , and, sinclair buying 20% amazon came in as a funding partner. joe: just a funding partner or is there a strategic

aspect for amazon? >> i think there will be a strategic aspect. business in the video with amazon prime. they are not in the sports side of the business. this is them dipping their toe into sports and sports rights. it is very important in professional sports leagues. look at espn and fox points one dealing with declining subscribers and profits and worried about will companies be able to continue to bid up my sports rights. the answer is maybe not, but maybe these big technology companies will come in and look to buy sports. i think this is good news. said they broadcast portland nets games.

no opinions, just facts. thanks to paul sweeney. let's turn to the consumer space. the consumer is offsetting some weaker parts of the gdp in the second quarter. spending grew 4.7%. individual retailers are not faring well. uncertainty about consumer habits, then some other earnings by dollar general as well as others. let's bring in our next guest, an analyst. an analyst at the capital markets, and he joins us on the phone. guy, a, you are a busy ton of retail earnings out today, tomorrow, all this week. we had a huge rally in dollar general. they seem to be doing things right. you made a call in april where you upgraded dollar general and

downgraded dollar tree. can you give us some sense as to what we are looking for with the diverting fortunes of these companies? >> thank you. great earlier this year. part of it was the fact the company has some interesting initiatives driving significant improvements in profitability and top store sales. part of it is sales and distribution of fresh and frozen items, and initiative where they are doing a better job restocking stores, part of it is better selling of his questioner he items. they are doing some interesting things in digital as well. dollar tree continues to struggle with the turnaround of family dollar, waiting for that business to turn has been like waiting for ghetto, and certainly the numbers today -- dot, and certainly the numbers

today show profit margins fell off a cliff. joe: it seems like people got unnerved about comments regarding the strength of the consumer by the end of the year from best buy, perhaps market volatility. are they giving you early signs the true hero of this ongoing economic expansion, the consumer, is starting to lincoln , or this -- is starting to weaken, or this is a best buy thing, or unfounded concerns? >> best buy has a very long and storied history of under promising and over delivering. they never put out guidance that they don't feel strongly they can beat. they have more incentive to do that now because they have a new cfo, so they want to set him up for success, not failure.

another thing with best buy is earlier this year they added a rent to own financing option through a company called progressive. they have said the results are incremental. huge forthat will be them during the holiday selling season because they will have it rolled out to all 45 states that allow rent to own financing and more muscle memory in terms of how to sell the product, so i think they are being very conservative in the selloff today is a buying opportunity. to best: when it comes buy, they have a new cfo, as well as a new ceo, who took the reins in june. much of the person on top -- how much is execution tied to the person on top, versus the strategy he has laid out and can sustain the company for years going forward.

>> that is a great question. she is fabulous. his right-hand woman ,uring the time he was there and certain parts of the strategy, she took more responsibility for, like the acquisition where they are getting into the senior monitoring space through digital concernedso i am not about the change in leadership. theink she will continue legacy in his strategies, and i think she will have her own spin as well. romaine: i want to turn to ulta beauty, shares down 21%. the stock was on fire. this has been a huge success story with regards to their retail presence. their conference call is coming up at the top of the hour.

what kinds of questions do you want answered to explain the misses we have seen in their full your or cast? >> i just took a look at the numbers. i am somewhat surprised by the magnitude of the guidance reduction. their numbers for the first have the year were pretty good. you had estee lauder report recently, saying bullish things as well. it isher thing is that coincidental, but will freak a lot of investors out anyway, the fact that lady gaga just announced recently she is going to exclusively debut her cosmetics line on amazon, and that is the first major celebrity to exclusively introduce a line on amazon, so it is probably not related, but investors are starting to sell the stock first and ask questions later. anthony, thank you so much. coming up, politicians are no

stranger to soundbites, but who said these statements may actually surprise you. we are looking at a couple of faux pause some politicians have made in the past and we will figure out whether it is joe biden or donald trump. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ romaine: time now for a look at what stories are trending. terminal users are reading about porsche, expanding its subscription services in flexible car ownership. the price of the two-tiered monthly subscription service will increase $100 to $3100 a

month. bloomberg.com has a story on contain the may largest reserve of lithium. if the mine is found, the reserves could bring a bone to the country. initial exploration suggests there may be 200 million tons of deposits. is reportingtter amazon has said it will spend $700 million to retrain one third of its workforce because of the impact of artificial intelligence. this has many companies thinking thet employee training as future of the workforce becomes automation-based. you can follow the stories on bloomberg.com and tictoc on twitter. will the history books remember president trump? how much time do you have? it might best says a long president george w. bush. president trump is veering

dangerously close, becoming the first republican to raise taxes since bush i. how does this work? the president has cut taxes. how is he raising taxes? >> he has tariffs in place that represent a $69 billion tax increase. $200 billion a year increase in tariffs if he goes through with them, more than the average yearly tax cut that came out of the tax cut in jobs back, so in total it will be a tax raise instead of a tax cut. likeif you raise taxes, the first george bush did, that is money coming out of the economy. causeory, tariffs could people to create new jobs in america, which is what president trump wants, and that could be a distributional transfer, not

just cash out of the system. -- is there an argument they are not comfortable with it? wille issue is that it lower people's disposable incomes. if all the tariffs go through, it would go down by $1700 a household, when disposable income went up $1300 from the tax cuts. consumers are what is keeping the economy going now, so if you cut down on disposable income, in the short term, that is negative for the economy. the president has some long-term theories about how to bring supply back to the united states, supply chains here -- that goes against most economic theories, so i don't know if that will work either. even if he is correct about supply chains in the short term, you are cutting into people's

pocketbooks and they will cut back on spending. romaine: how much of a runway does trump have here. november 2020 is the default deadline to make sure the economy at least look sound enough for voters, although does he have enough runway to get there? >> in terms of turning it around? certainly not at the pace he is doing. if anything, he is making it worse. we are getting close to phase three in october, then more tariffs in december, and every time it looks like he may ease up on the trade war, he goes in deeper and further. that has already obviously hit businesses in terms of uncertainty and investment. as, how bad can he make the economy before the election? he does not have an enormous amount of interest turning it around. joe: big picture, the republican

party has long been this coalition of cultural conservatives and capitalist who want free trade and lower taxes. blip or a represent a real fracturing that could be a problem for the party down the line if the economic agenda alienates the capitalist elites? >> this is a massive argument. i am more on the side of trump being a blip. it is not a blip and everything will go back to the reagan consensus. i think that what will happen is a lot of conservatives, marco engage ine lee, will pro-capitalism, but with a kinder face. i can't see who is in the wings who would have the rabid populist approach trump does. joe: thank you very much.

trump -- speaking democraticnd 20/20 front runner joe biden may be on opposite sides of the aisle, but when it comes to what they say, they may be more alike than they previously realized, so bloomberg put together this brilliant quiz and you can check it out online. it compiles the list of the two men similar statements. for more on this, we bring in our editor. i have already gone through this and seen the answers, but i am so obsessed with this quiz. we will go through a few quotes and chet who is more likely. who is one -- and chat more likely. here is one. i would be delighted to sit down and compare my iq to yours. romaine: that has to be trump, right? caroline: trump likes to talk about his like you a lot.

romaine: oh my gosh. joe: what is the deal? infrank was a local reporter 1987, but he was a little cranky that week. all presidents get cranky with reporters. they just don't stand at a podium in collis enemies. he was cranky with reporters because a story had broken about plagiarism and his academic record that drove him from the 1988 campaign. when this reporter challenged his academic record, he said i am just as smart as you are and probably smarter than you are. that is where that one comes in. joe: let's try another one. what i am trying to do is go around from town to town and draw the crowds, bigger than anybody, have you seen anybody draw bigger crowds than me. >> i'm going to say trump. romaine: i will go with trump.

joe: biden. caroline: when did he say that? >> he said that one this month in iowa. you think all these biden things are from the 1970's and 1980's, but they are very contemporary. >> this was this month in iowa was a fox news reporter wondered why there were a few people at his event. he started on this crowd thing, just like trump started his presidency with a complaint about crowd size. joe: last one, real quickly. no one has more respect for women than i do, nobody, nobody has more respect. romaine: i'm going to push on this one. caroline: i think trump. the tempo, that sounds like something he would say based on the staccato way of saying it. joe: that was trump.

caroline: finally. joe: you guys in the d.c. bureau did such a good job with this quiz. everyone should go online. there are 15 quotes. people are tweeting their numbers. they are terrible. thank you, appreciate you. >> any time. caroline: we failed that quiz miserably. as demonstrations continue, we will look at the financials. this is bloomberg. ♪

hashe etf industry something for everyone. in the midst of the demonstrations in hong kong, we highlight one fund that focuses on the asian financial hub. ♪ >> the ishares hong kong etf is one of the oldest single country

funds available, ewh. to ang recently jumped five-year high as antigovernment protest continued. weeks of unrest have taken a toll on performance, at a time when the city is struggling with the fallout from the trade war. the fund's assets have slumped this year. tracks 55 hong kong-based companies, handful listed in singapore in the u.s.. e wh is tilted towards financials and property. hong kong exchanges and clearing, which operates the stock exchange, real estate names, and ck hutchinson round out the top five. ewh has an expense ratio of 48 basis points and gets a green light from the bloomberg traffic light system. kong, theg with hong city and residents are bracing

for the 13th straight weekend of demonstrations this weekend. people thought it would slow down a little bit because school was back in session, but that is not the case. romaine: the group organizing the event will essentially be banned from doing this officially. this group has largely been responsible for the more peaceful protests. joe: it has been extraordinary. i remember the first week, then there was more chaotic action. then you see how it continues. itst felt like it reached tipping point when it was violent and both sides pulled back and they had a weekend where things were peaceful. romaine: you get a sense that both the government as well as the protesters do want to keep things peaceful. sometimes these things can get out of control. caroline: the stock index, the

hang seng near the lowest for the year. it has not made up much ground of late. that does it for "what'd you miss?" "bloomberg technology" is coming up in the u.s. joe: have a great evening. ♪

♪ emily: i am emily chang in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." , regulatory and health concerns for juul. the u.s. food and drug administration is investigating the link between e-cigarettes and seizures. ceo.terview with the uber he comments on the path to