tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg September 11, 2019 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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paul: good morning. i am paul allen in sydney. we are under one hour away from the market open in australia, japan, and south korea. shery: good evening. sophie: i am sophie -- i am shery ahn. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. welcome to "daybreak asia." paul: our top stories this thursday, central banks make their headlines. president trump resumes his attack on the fed. the ecb is expected to resume quantitative easing. china releases a list of u.s. products that are exempt from tariffs.
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it is seen as a trade war olive branch. american farmers remain under pressure. bid from thees a hong kong exchange. lawmakers are concerned about potential national security questions. shery: let's get you started with a quick check on how markets closed. we saw the s&p 500 gain ground and close above that 3000 level for the first time in six weeks. we had health care stocks and tech leading the gains. interesting, the nasdaq finishing at the highest level since july, rising for the first time in four sessions. into valuee rotation stocks. they subside a little bit. the u.s. futures unchanged, but let's see how we are setting up for asia. sophie: south korea closed until monday. we are seeing futures knowledge higher -- nudge higher.
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the nzx 50 treading water. euro, it isthe little changed after briefly theing below that ahead of ecb meeting which bank of america merrill lynch is calling the most unpredictable of the past five years. in asia, switching the board, the highlight will be malaysia's policy decision. the central bank is likely to hold. on the data docket, inflation from japan and india. retail sales from singapore. i want to highlight these properties. we will get the earnings report today. this is hong kong's biggest developer -- this as hong kong's biggest developer slashed prices. shery: jessica summers. assica: china has announced range of u.s. goods that will be exempt from 25% extra tariffs imposed last year. that is as beijing seeks to ease the impacts of the trade war
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without lifting duties on major items such as soybeans and pork. pharmaceuticals and lubricant oils are among the exclusions. they are effective for 12 months and cover 16 categories of goods worth more than $1.6 billion. president trump has resumed his attack on the fed, saying interest rates should be zero or less. his tweets, as a washington post/abc news poll shows most americans fear a recession in the next 12 months. the president accused of jay powell and his colleagues of being naive for not emulating the policies for other central banks. even describing the fed chairman and his team as "boneheads." the u.k. government is warning of sweeping chaos from a no-deal brexit with disruption to trade and financial services and the possibility of public disorder. the document is part of a worst-case scenario.
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parliament voted to force boris johnson to make it public. the government is also facing legal action. at the scottish appeals court's ruling the suspension of parliament is unlawful. sources in the white house say national security advisor john bolton left after arguments with sanctions on iran.er eg we are told the president -- the meeting with iranian leaders later this month at the u.n. general assembly boat was warned against the ibm bible 10. generalnuchin agreed -- assembly was warned against it. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am jessica summers. this is bloomberg. shery: returning to u.s. markets, it was a good day for the bulls. the nasdaq hit its highest level
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since july. 3000 and the dow rose. su keenan has the latest market action and wee hours being this risk-on move across the market. su: one strategist said you have the hint of any trade. a possibly dovish fed. a lot of this could be the inderbox for a move higher the market. let's take a look at the snapshot. you will notice a big move higher for the life sciences. a lot of health related stocks were higher. let's going to the bloomberg. in the russell 2000 was higher again. this was a lot of the small-cap valuation stocks, so we are continuing to see a bit of that rotation away from the high momentum into the value although that slowed it a bit. has the russell 2000 listen too far, too fast? risen too far,
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too fast? analysts were cheering. bowing out with more news about the return of the max jets. francesca, a woman's apparel holding company, out with very strong earnings. very interesting. this is a former high flyer. it doubled last year. down as much as 23% intraday after it gave an outlook that was seen as weak. analysts across the board cut their ratings. some of the software stocks continue to be under pressure. paul: under pressure, the oil prices dropping to a one-week low. president trump considering easing sanctions on iran. more fallout from the bolton effect? twoit is day to of them --
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of a lot of conflict. there's talk about e-zine sanctions on iran. let's take a look at the five-day move for oil. west texas intermediate in particular. brent was affected as well. it came down more than 2% on the day. if we take a look at the big picture, there are people close to the matter saying president trump could meet with the head of iran and this would be absolutely unprecedented. there are times when there are sanctions on iran. it is short-term. bullish for oil. paul: su keenan, -- shery: su keenan, thank you so much. yahoo japan is said to be in onal talks to buy a stake one of japan's largest online fashion retailers. it is said to remain listed after the yahoo japan. -- yahoo japan bid. zozo
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's ceo is said to agree to the offer. onlinethe largest fashion retailers is said to be in final talks with yahoo japan, which is thinking to by a majority stake in the company. said it was several hundred billion yen. we will keep an eyen ose stocks at the open in japan. paul. paul: let's get back to the markets now. joining us from melbourne is a global investors portfolio manager. thanks for joining us. one of our favorite charts on bloomberg is the pile of negative yielding debt globally. after commenting on the remarkable run-up, it now seems to be pulling back. ofre is $14.6 trillion worth negative yielding bonds in the
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world now. is that starting to unwind or is that a temporary respite with a lot of risks still in play? >> in terms of the global biggest -- in the world right now. one is exactly what you are saying, the low rate environment. that was a negative yield. all the central banks are cutting rates. is of the rates i am seeing -- the low rates. the companies and business investors are not going to invest ine money to an environment where they do not see a good prospect of the growth. is in ther problem longer environment, it might introduce problems like zombie
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companies, which should not be kept alive. it is still alive do to the environments. -- due to the environments. it is not due to the growth. hence, they are -- verint systems is not going to stimulate the growth. -- their existence is not going to stimulate the growth. the environment is also questioning the effectiveness of the abity of the central banks and hiking rates. i do not see any reminding of the year that the moment in this current environment. the growth is trending lower and inflation is coming from nowhere to see this trend as it continues to go to that direction. paul: another effect of the low rate environment is this expansion we have seen in
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credit. when you look at this, you say we need to be selective. i know you are a little bit skeptical about the credit and energies sector, but what is it you like when you look around credit markets? so we see a huge amount of issuance of credit coming to the markets. in fact, it was quite a large issuance in the recent few months. however, we do not see the .pread in the corporate markets i guess that credit is going to be well supported in this current environment where the default rate is relatively stable -- so in an environment where the deal is low and the default rate is stable, we have to be selective and cautious in terms of credit exposure, the way we have to in terms of the credit quality in the sector. the credit quality -- we have
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seen the high-yield sector has not performed as well as investor grade. we have to be risk aware in terms of yields. i think that is a very important point. in terms of the energy sector, the energy sector has undergone significant structural changes in terms of the energy, a traditional energy sector. the oil price is dropping significantly for the last few months. energy,, in terms of you have to be quite aware of what risk factors you are exposed to. be a: credit risk seems to big concern for the pboc in china as well. how effective have they been in trying to avoid these credit bubbles and get a repeat of those zombie companies and ghost
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towns we have seen in the past? is an: so i think that important point to talk about, the trade talk at the moment. a lot of people have very the octoberiews of trade meeting. however, they have had numerous meetings in the past, in shanghai and washington, without success. the october meeting coincides with the 17th anniversary of the founding of the republic of china, people's republic of china, and i do not see that president xi is going to back down or compromise on the deal that does not seem favorable to china. the impact on china has been quite significant on the economic front. we have seen the pmi number fell below 50, which puts the
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downward pressure on labor markets. there are tools to stimulate growth. we have seen that china has cut the reserve ratio with the aim to put more liquidity into the market to stimulate the domestic -- we have seen china introduce foreign capital investment but we see this as a longer play because china still has shown to the market that it is a safe place in governance and regulation. ban job,se of this viously, china has been -- we have seen that the property was in a corrective made. however, in terms of this trade talk, china has to stimulate its withoutstic growth
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hitting the centers it does not want to hit. -- sectors it does not want to pitch. shery: it is carrying out more infrastructure spending. how will this complicate the debt picture in china? amanda: so i think that in the as i mentioned before, the property market was in a corrective mood, and they also have tackled shadow banking. we have seen a significant improvement in terms of the credit sector in the past. local government borrowing more money, i think chinas targeted more from , so we do not really see that it is going to have to -- the problem that has happened in the past, we see that it is more
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targeted and strategic infrastructure and long-term plan that china is playing here. paul: global investors portfolio manager amanda lin, thanks so much for joining us. still ahead, we speak to the head of one of china's most prominent state run media outlets. global times editor in chief tells us what beijing is planning, next, in the trade war. shery: up next, columbia university's representative joins us to talk about the bid for the london stock exchange and why a deal is not likely. this is bloomberg. ♪
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is the question. will the deal go through? the u.s. business sector -- u.k. business secretary says it would come in for scrutiny. keen to seeways foreign invest investment, collaboration with different international interests, but we would have to look very carefully at anything that actually had security implications for the united kingdom, which is exactly standard. we would always do that. is a former hedge fund manager and now a professor of finance. great to have you with us. you are skeptical that this will go through. tell us why. fabio: if you look at it from the standard mechanical hedge fund perspective, one of the things he would look at is how long will this deal take to close? the other is the probability of a closing on the volatility along the way. when we look at all three of those, since 2000, there has in seven bids to take over the
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london stock exchange from relatively from the people. nasdaq.germany, every single one of them has failed and the most recent one was the deutsche' mge so you know, 41%, historically, this has been a very difficult one to pull off. this is not a particularly great environment even for the background. forgetting about the actual underlying bid, the actual synergies, if there are any, you know, it is pretty much like two drunks walking down the street holding onto each other. the lse might not get the saudi aramco ipo because of brexiteers. brexit fears.s -- the people were not in the streets of hong kong to take in the beautiful summer air.
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there is problems in these cities. the two of them passing together does not necessarily view a stronger -- warm and fuzzy feeling. not the kind of things regulators would be in a rush to approve. shery: breaking news at the moment. we are now hearing from president trump, saying they will move the china tariff increase to october 15 from october 1. they are going to move those planned increased tariffs of 250 billion dollars of chinese goods from october 1 to october 15. president trump tweeting that this is coming at the vice premier of china, the ohio -- the vice premier of china. they will be celebrating the 70th anniversary on october 1. president trump saying that, as a gesture of goodwill, they will move the tariffs on $250 billion of u.s. goods, 25% of 30% from october 1 two october 15.
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we are now seeing a market move right there with u.s. futures jumping .25%. they were pretty much unchanged as they opened earlier today. let's discuss this move about honks -- of the hong kong exchange. this issue of trade in china of course, that skepticism is there that given the political mood and environment right now and apprehension of china having more control over some of these global companies, that this might not go through. would the fact that they have so much of a presence in be bond trading, it would walking away from a tremendous amount of savings. if they do, you know, walk away from their deal as well. basicse good fundamental . what it comes down to is a
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function of exchanges. they are very big on scale and data. that is the future of exchanges. this one would argue, for scale. the strongest argument is 18 hours of continuous trading, but 18 hours of continuous trading now through the bloomberg and hundreds of other ways, we can do that. you know, within the markets. the data, which they have to walk away from, if they are forced to reject the deals, a lot of people would say that looks a lot more like two of them being able to trade 18 hours per day. futuret more like the than being able to trade 18 hours per day. paul: doesn't have one eye on the lifeboat -- does it have one eye on the lifeboats in the middle of this unrest? fabio: the only thing that struck me is the potential motivations. you might have seen it in the hedge fund world where one person goes in and makes a bid hoping to flush out others. you will get holdings and then they will try to target a bit of a bidding war. is hong kong stock exchange
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going to be above that, you know, fairly low-end activity, shall we say, but in the general case, i think the biggest issue that comes to mind with this is maybe they were just inking they could get it at a discount because of exit, that somehow, this would create some form of added stability if they thought that there would be a demand to do this, but to ask them to walk away from what is already a fairly transformational purpose of their of senators initives makes this important. the market is looking at a less than 20% chance of this going through. they can always come in with a secondary bid and the adequacy is looking at that. it seems unlikely that this will be the one. shery: thank you so much for joining us, fabio savoldelli. companyg lp, the parent of bloomberg news and bloomberg intelligence, competes with them
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shery: we are recapping some of the breaking news we had from president trump, tweeting now that at the request of china advise premier, he will be in fact delaying some of those tariffs that were supposed to be increased on october 1. he is saying this is becoming because of china celebrating their 70th anniversary on october 1, they will move those increased tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods from 25% from october 1 to october 15th. market reaction swift with u.s. futures jumping and the offshore yuan also gaining. movedent trump also vowed with the possibility of cutting capital gains by indexing gains with inflation.
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♪ >> this is daybreak: asia. i am with the first word headlines. president trump has won a legal victory for his policy over the border with mexico. the supreme court says his administration can enforce a new rule designed to limit to can apply for asylum at the border. the rulings of the policy can remain in place while a legal challenge goes ahead. justice is ruth bader ginsburg and sonia sotomayor both dissented. the idea of independence for catalonia back in the news with hundreds of thousands of people with a mass rally in barcelona. the demonstration came just weeks before verdicts in legal
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cases against separatist leaders. it commemorates the fall of barcelona in the spanish succession in 1714. the leaders face a range of charges including rebellion. decision date in malaysia. policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold although trade tensions are raising pressure for more easing. 16 are forecasting benchmark rate will stay at 3% while 8 see a 25 basis point cut. malaysia was one of the first central banks to cut interest rates this year, easing in may by 25 basis points. the number list of of people still unaccounted for in the bahamas following hurricane dorian's to wind a half thousand names long. the official death toll stands at 50, but it is expected to swell as rescue teams reach
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outlying areas. much ofs returned to grand bahama, but electrical infrastructure on abaco island was destroyed. the chinese woman who entered president trump's mar-a-lago resort when he and his family were there has been convicted of trespassing and lying to secret service. the 33-year-old shanghai consultant defended herself in court. she faces prison as questions linger about what she was doing in the palm beach resort and the level of security at the time. global news, 24 hours a day on air and @tiktoc on twitter powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. >> thanks, jessica. let's get back to our top story. president trump planning to move the increased tariffs on china. he has written on twitter that he made the changes at the request of chinese vice premier.
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gesture of goodwill. tariffs will now be raised on october 15 instead of the politically sensitive date of october 1. sophie is taking a look at market reaction. sophie: we saw an immediate move and the offshore yuan. it is now trading at the strongest level since august 22. following china's tariff exemptions on the u.s., so the offshore yuan now with the second potential gain. futures also jumping. we have the yen on the back against the dollar. shery: thank you. let's go to china correspondent in beijing, tom mackenzie. a really is interesting development giving
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that we have seen china's announcement for exemptions which did not include agricultural goods which president trump would have liked. tom: that;s right. we have had a number of steps from both sides to try to move things forward in terms of what the expectations are for the talk that will happen at some point. would not be surprised if the chinese delegation agreed to go over to washington to continue these talks if the october 1 tariffs-- october 1 had kicked in. and now it will be before october 15 whethe adtional tariffs will be in place. they are currently at 25%. the plan from the administration was to raise those to 30%. as we have been saying, those now look like they will hit october 15 depending on negotiations. on the chinese side, we have had
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some news out of beijing around concessions and how some might phrase them as concessions or exemptions on the tariff list that was put in place last year. out of the list, there have been 16 product categories that have been exempt from these tariffs, amounting to 1.5 billion dollars. they include things like pharmaceuticals and pesticides. but they do not include the big-ticket agricultural items like u.s. soybeans, beef, and pork. the view is that china is holding onto those as leverage leading into the negotiations. paul: in the meantime, you spoke to someone with an inside track on china's trade war tactics. what that he have to say? editor-in-chief of the influential and rather nationalistic newspaper, "the
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global times" in beijing. pretty man who has been consistent for his forecast for how china is playing out it his trade war strategy. i started out asking whether or not these moves around tariff exemptions was a sign that beijing was trying to placate the u.s.. take a listen. -- let's not think of it as a concession. it is a goodwill gesture and shows that china is confident. it is different from concession. tom: i also asked whether are not it was the u.s. or the chinese strategy to wait president trump -- weight outs president trump at the 2020 elections and he said, he does not think it is the strategy. also about john bolton, he said it may make it potentially
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easier to get some kind of a deal. he said he was a negative influence when it came to thinking around how to approach china. longer-term, he thinks there is a greater chance of some kind of deal between the u.s. and chinese side. he says he is feeling a little more positive of what may come out of the talks and what that may lead to. paul: alright, tom mackenzie in beijing. thank you for joining us. let's get to a bloomberg scooper it president trump has reportedly considered easing sanctions on iran has a preface to a potential meeting with rouhani at the general assembly. plummeted and holding their a one-week low. let's bring in asia energy reporter. what are the prospects for a sudden influx of oil? single day biggest
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loss in the market in four weeks, so it shows you the risk premium that had been built in on these tensions. the departure of bolton has eased those tensions, and i would not claim to have any great insight into president he seespsychology, but himself as a dealmaker, not a warmonger. every time we have got close to an inflection point in the iranian relationship, he has pulled back. the market is aware and viewing this positively, but i caution about getting too carried away. this talk of a potential meeting happening between president trump and his iranian counterpart at the u.n., it certainly is a long way from that being locked in, and we need to see how things develop from here to see if the market can be further pressure downwards. and certainly in terms of iranian crude coming up to the market, we are some ways away from that. shery: we are expecting opec plus ministers to meet in abu dhabi. what should we expect and can we expect any change in strategy
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given where prices are? james: yes. as you say, there is a meeting coming up of opec ministers. it is interesting and the perspective that we have had a changing and the guard in saudi arabia with the new energy minister being installed, but there has been no major change in stance under his leadership. certainly, this sounding from the russians is that there will not be any major or further production cuts as a result of the meeting in september. i think the strategy in terms of the saudi's and the russians, the two nations that drive the opec agenda, what they would want to see is how things develop on the trade war front for the remainder of the year. signs are more positive on that front. we were just talking about the two week delay to tariffs as a sign of goodwill, so things may be leaning in a good direction which is positive for the demand outlook for crude. which will be supportive to prices. we are not going to get any
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flopped on the yearly average. q.e. is less so with consensus of 30 billion euros per month. governors including from germany and france are skeptical on the need to reactivate. the coalition of the unwilling. sizable enough opposition to cast doubt on the ecb delivering a large package, but most ecb watchers do suggested that mario will prevail. they say that will send a powerful signal that rate cuts and q.e. have reached the limit of effectiveness. shery: thank you. the ecb made further go into negative rate territory later thursday. our next guest warns that that could be a mistake. always great having you with us. >> thank you. shery: give us your expectations of what we will see on thursday. >> yeah.
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before mentioned, 10 to 15 basis points is on the money and that is like that cut and deposit rates. ande are some people, rcb, maybe canada looking for 20 basis points but we think it is out of the question. it will be either 10 or 15 and 20 is far too deep of a cut. is concerned,q.e. that is a big? , and there is a pushback from germany, netherlands, some of the more hawkish countries against reinstating the quantitative easing program, but i would not rule it out. what we have gathered is that there is sort of a balance here, and this is draghi's last hurrah before he kicks it off to the inf director christine lagarde. there is thinking that maybe you should leave some ammunition for the next ecb governor and give
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her some tools to work with. but what we get is that actually, the thinking around draghi is more that you should try to clear this late as much as you can and give as clean as the economic condition and situation as you can to christine lagarde, and therefore, going a little more aggressive if anything. he is going to push for it. whether he gets the consensus to do it now or they say we have it in our pockets and we can roll it out at any minute once we needed, it is going to be one of the two options. shery: given that right now we are seeing the german economy struggling, we are seeing inflation effect agents bondpsing, so would a new purchase program change the dynamic here? sassan: i think between the new policy options, negative interest rates going even deeper into the negative territory is something that is kind of a mixed bag. we all know that it impacts the banks in a negative way going as far as their profitability.
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in theory, cutting deeper into negative territory is supposed to push banks instead of depositing their money, out into the economy. that really has not happened. that negativet rate has is on the currency. they won't admit this, but in 2013 when the ecb first went into negative, the reason they did was because the euro was stuck at 140. they wanted to knock the euro down. they put a negative carry on the currency, the fed was not moving becametime, but it more expensive to hold euros and the euro dropped from 140 to 120. so for the extent of currency and manufacturers like germany, that could be a positive. having said that, the fed could verybe -- and the ecb has slim advantage. if you have ever seen that skit
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with more cowbell, it is like let's do more of the same. asset purchases on the other hand, that might revise the real economy more. the ammunition is a real problem for the ecb on both fronts. i very much enjoyed your more cowbell analogy, but is there a risk associated with that as well? not only is it the law of diminishing returns, does this lessen the impact show markets that the ecb's actions are no longer effective? sassan: yeah. i think the market expectations -- the market is almost braved to be disappointed. they are going to look at the negative rates, and maybe that will have impact. they will watch the euro movement very closely in the first 24 hours to see, maybe we get some movement there and maybe the euro drops a little bit, ok, maybe that is a little stimulus. it is not going to be enough to take these to the bank.
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the question of diminishing returns, limited ammunitions is very real and it is a very real problem for the ecb. frankly, the negative side effect on negative interest rates is not just in herding the banking sector, it is also in inflation expectations. if you look at five-year year, five year breakevens, and germany, they did nothing but collapse. easing inegraphed june, and the breakevens went from 1.6 to 1.2. the one year breakevens are now near 1% in germany. i know trump is talking about that, but be careful what you wish for. have arguedple who against going below 0, the bank of england refused to go below 0, they went to a half and did q.e., and i think that is the right to monetary policy makes
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for conducting a normal and having a normal economic environment for corporates and consumers to function. i just want to quickly return to that point you made about the euro weakening. affect that isr likely to attract strong disapproval from president trump. sassan: yes, it is. it is interesting that trump has gone from cutting interest rates 50 basis points, to let's go into 0 and negative. the currency wars are here. it is not like this is a possibility. let's call a- spade a spade. the ecb for a long time, you had the g7 accord, you are not supposed to be targeting your currency or economy, ok, fine. but every time they complain about volatility -- they do not
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complain when it goes down. and another interesting story now is a sleeper. no one is really watching it. thebank of japan is meeting day after fed. the bank of japan is watching what the fed and ecb are going to do, and they are talking about doing it -- there is speculation that they might do a reverse operation twist to make sure the yen does not increase beyond the 105 level, which they are sensitive to. this is clearly directed an uiding theowards g currency, so to speak. there is not much change between a month ago and this month in japan except what the ecb and the euro is doing. it is competitive for rates at the bottom. it is here already and i do not think it is going to stop. shery: quickly, we have president trump tweeting now that they are going to move to increase the tariffs on the $250 billion of chinese goods from
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october 1 to october 15 as a goodwill gesture. when will we see all of these tariffs in place actually affected these inflaon numbers? sassan: i like to stick to my netting, so i am not an economist. the short answer is, i don't know. i think by far -- shery: do you think that companies in the u.s. move to pass on some of those costs to consumers? sassan: very little. it is being absorbed and the impact is contractionary. it is on manufacturing and really on profitability to profit margins that absorb a lot of it already. sort of on the industrial side, and it has not really gone slick consumer products yet, and that is why this next round of tariffs as may be the most important because it really starts to hit consumer-products and consumer goods if it is has beenstituted as it said, october and december. shery: sassan ghahramani, great
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having you with us. ceo of sgh macro advisors. breaking news out of japan. the ppi numbers year on year for the month of august coming in, falling at a faster pace than expected. we are talking about a contraction of 0.9%. this is faster than the previous month and also much faster than expected. we have seen some deflationary pressure on the ppi numbers given a stronger yen. look at core machine orders month to month contracting 6.6%, and that is for july. this is a smaller contraction than expected, but it comes after the steep rise we saw in june. june was slightly different given that there were large noncyclical orders in place for that month. we saw a gain of 14%.
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♪ shery: as we continue to see china-u.s. trade tensions, we see china's tech sector resulting in the dismantling of the decades old made in china copycat image. joiningg's tech editor us now. what are we seeing now? >> what we are seeing is the development that started a few years ago. another trade is putting a fresh hastus on this, but this been happening over the long-term, and you have these hardware startups in china which are actually now world leaders. the quick summary to me is that china is no longer just
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manufacturing but also designing it. taking a leadership position in design as well. other sidebout the of this, the u.s. is always taken a leadership position in design and the more boring parts of the process, so is that starting to reverse now? u.s. is still the design leader. we are not going to get away from apple and companies like that, but the advances that china -- advantages that china between theommunity design and engineering. the u.s. with apple being the big leader has led to china developing the expertise and specific supply chains that requires these things, so you have all of this geographic proximity to all things necessary to the design and development of new products, and this is what helps china have the lead, being able to move
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faster than anybody else. ,aul: tech editor, vlad savov thank you for joining us. ride-hailing rivals uber and lyft both gained on the regular session on the news that the governor of california is still open to talks on exemptions from classifying their drivers as staff. involvedsom personally in discussions, saying he remains committed to continuing talks. shery: cathay pacific says that passengers have fallen. they carried 2.9 million people in august. a drop of 11% from a year ago and the biggest fall since the middle of 2009. staff prompted protests. coming up in the next hour of daybreak: asia, we are speaking aboutd manager tristan,
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global times editor-in-chief. shery: central banks making the headlines with president trump resuming his attack on the fed. the ecb expected to resume q.e. later. >> we are seeing a risk on moves after president trump delayed those tariffs on chinese goods october 15. let's get straight to the market action. >> in japan, we are seeing the yenof 9/10 of 1%, but the is back above 1/8 for the first time since august 8. and the first time in three weeks after trump follow china's goodwill gesture on tariffs. the europe holding on a 110 handle before the ecb meeting this thursday. checking and on the aix 100, we have a gaining. getting closer to the 69 mark further -- until
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global risk aversion returns. dollari stocks and kiwi billionas well, but 100 market value milestone here, but we may see that soon enough. paul: sophie, thank you. let's check in on the first word news. jessica: thanks. the u.k. government is warning of sweeping chaos from a no deal brexit, with disruption to trade and financial services, and the possibility of public disorder. the document is part of a worst-case scenario called operation yellowhammer. parliament voted to force boris johnson to make it public. the scottish appeals court's ruling that the suspension of parliament is unlawful. sources in the white house a national security advisor john bolton left after arguments with president trump over easing sanctions on iran.
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we are told the president will hold a meeting with iranian leaders later this month of the u.n. general assembly but was warned against the idea bite -- by bolton. steven mnuchin agreed with the plan prompting the president to ask for bolton's resignation. president trump has won a legal victory over his policy for the border of mexico. the supreme court said the administration can enforce a new rule. remainy the policy can in place while a legal challenge goes ahead. justices ruth bader ginsburg and sonia sotomayor both dissented. the idea of independence for catalonia back in the news with hundreds of thousands of people staging a massive rally in barcelona. demonstration came just weeks before verdicts and legal cases against a separatist leaders. theember 11 commemorates
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fall of barcelona and the spanish war of succession in 1714. --s as leaders force a range face a range of charges including rebellion. the list of people still unaccounted for in the bahamas following hurricane dorian's 2000 and a half names long. the official death toll stands at 50, but it is expected to swell as rescue teams three outlying areas. power has returned to grand bahama but infrastructure that is electric on abaco islands was destroyed. global news, 24 hours a day on air and @tiktoc on twitter powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: president trump has hit the brakes lightly on his plan to increase tariffs on chinese goods by 5%. president trump tweeting he is
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moving the increase back to october 15. bloomberg news editor joins us from washington over the phone. how much is this to do with a goodwill gesture as the president claims for china, and how much is it because the u.s. does not want these tariffs to hurt the u.s. economy as well? >> great question and probably a little bit of both. this probably is a goodwill gesture and set the stage for talks between american officials and chinese officials coming up at the end of this month. there are also gnof the impact of these tariffs on u.s. consumers, and there is increasing concerns about the effects us is having on the u.s. economy. presidentmething that trump is worried about especially as he seeks reelection next year with mostly the econom run o that is the strongest case for reelection and that is what he wants to keep on going strong as he goes into election year. paul: the date of october 1 was
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obviously a significant one, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the prc, so that is a symbolic olive branch to extend, but probably important before the talks even began. can there be a great sense of optimism about the is going forward? anna: i think there can partly because we have not seen a whole lot of optimistic signs so far. a lot of rhetoric from both sides with the chinese officials morning the chinese people to prepare for a long trade war and president trump continuing his heart stands on china and what he describes as trade abuses. this is a good sign and one of the first good signs we have seen in months, and we will see if it has any material impact. it will factor into the discussions we have here in washington, but we will see if there is a deal that can be made between the two sides negotiating. shery: we have seen china lifting or expanding some of onse exemptions for tariffs
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u.s. goods, but they did not include agricultural purchases, so those are still hit by tariffs from china. what are we seeing in terms of farmers because their support will be crucial for the 2020 elections, right? anna: right. very important constituency for president trump. farmers are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but it is going to be hard for them to stick with the president as they began to feel more concrete impacts from these tariffss on the other hand, the president really wants to make a deal. he just needs to be able to go to the american people to go to his base and s, i am a dealmaker, i made a deal, and this is what i have gotten from the chinese to end this trade war and the economy will respond. that could be enough to make the case that he conducted this and a way that was not destructive
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to both economies. shery: but we have seen a washington turn more hawkish towards china. will washington policymakers be able to accept a symbolic policy deal? anna: congress does not have to approve this deal so it is up to the white house. with othere to bear trade negotiations like the usmca or the new nafta agreement, but just the negotiatinggeneral strategy and the trust the republican lawmakers have to the president to conduct trade policy in a responsible way. paul: anna edgerton, thank you for joining us on that story. despite president trump's demand for the fed to ler borrowing costs to 0, jerome powell is unlikely to follow their allies. joining us for more on the eco-picture today, and let's start with the ecb.
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everyone is expecting movement. what are we watching for? >> right, we are heading into a big week for the world's biggest central banks. it is going to be something of a contentious meeting for our colleague in frankfurt, with a diverse discussion going on and terms of what the ecb should did next. the european economy has been hit hard by the trade war, and forcing uncertainty around brexit. about question is not whether they will add stimulus, but what kind of stimulus the ecb will add. there seems to be consensus that the negative rates could further, but after that in terms of whether or not they reached their q.e. seems to be the point out to debate. this is a dramatic turn around, only nine months ago, the ecb was looking at an exit strategy to pull out of emergency settings and here we are now just weeks before mario draghi finishes his term, they are
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pushing back into stimulus territory. shery: talking about pushing the envelope of monetary policy. let's talk about the boj. what is the expect asian of the reverse operation twist? enda: it is when the central bank may move to cut short-term rates at but ultimately longer-term rates. not follow the rest of the world and -- in stepping up its stimulus measures, with its policy program of q.e., but the yen is somewhat strong enough and clearly it is dragging exporters. the advice on the pressure to move, but the problem is if they cut negative rates further, that risks negatives on the banking. the governor is not at all concerned. that is why we are getting this reverse operation twist idea that perhaps of all the options they could look at and remember, the boj is one option that they
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could use. paul: we do have another central bank making a decision today. malaysia, looking like much more , isn't it?ull call enda: there is no urgency on them to cut. the expectation is that they on balanceill day on hold, and the growing inflation growth rate is doing ok. but it goes to the broader story that emerging economies in asia are still in an easing cycle. n whatwill depend o the fed does, and as we head into the end of the year, a lot of economists saying that you will see central banks not just in malaysia but the rest of the region. shery: enda curran joining us
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from hong kong, thank you. we are seeing risk appetite returning to the market. japan rising as much as 5% and that is the biggest jump, after the company agreed to take a stake and online retailers ozone. -- zozo's. shares of the company are suspended but they will resume trading later in the hour. offers of five to one. also, the ceo of that retailer will step down today. treasuries,g in on tenure futures have broken through wednesday's lows. yields rising to three basis points. equity futures are climbing as much as .7% this morning. shery: thank you. still ahead, innovative tech maker,es such a drone changing the long-standing image of china as being a nation of copycats.
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♪ this is daybreak: asia. i am paul in sydney. shery: i am shery ahn and new york. investors piled into riskier assets on the prospect of moore's seamless in major economies. hansen, guest, tristan a multi-asset to fund manager in london, but he joins us from hong kong. great to have you with us. i mentioned the potential central banks easing going around the world, but also the trade news like today, president trump delaying some of the extra tariffs on chinese goods. how much potential do these em
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assets have if we see not only central banks easing but trade war risks easing? you get a think if stabilization or any easing in terms of the worries that people then risk assets globally, emerging markets, but also global equities, i think the priced to do very well over the next year or so, just along some of these fears that go away. we may be surprised over the strength of the global economy, because sentiment is extremely pessimistic. you do not need great news, just the news to stop getting worse if you like it, and which case, these risk assets could do very well. shery: no wonder given the worries round, and we have seen this move and the bond markets and what would that do to the bond value we have seen recently? are an: i think bonds very risky juncture at this
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point. you just need to look at the german third year bond. i am picking my starting points. the bond is off around 7% or 8% the next few weeks. or 8%, andst lost 7% the yields maturity today is one basis point. you are going to make 30 basis points over 30 years, and if you hold it to maturity, and meanwhile, you could lose 7% or 8% and the month as we have just seen. these are given the yields that we have reached, these are risky assets, and the respective returns are poor from developed market bonds. by contrast, you look at global equities, you can get an earnings yield around 6%, and they should girl over time. so -- they should grow over time. superior tois far the case for cash or safe haven
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ever met bonds. to the just want to look ecb at the moment, that is one of the big rate decisions that we are waiting on. what are your expectations and what i am really asking is anything really going to work at this point? tristan: they certainly have less firepower than they have had. in terms of today's decision, we are likely to see a small rate cuts, and we may see more q.e., and it is possible that they tear some of the reserves -- and what does that mean? that just means alleviating the pressure on the banks on a portion of the reserves. that is a consensus view, by the way. the most important thing to look for in my view is to see what they do with the interest rates on tltro's. tltro's sounds a complicated thing, on the basis that they
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pass those loans on in the real economy. at the moment, they have not allow the interest rates on that funding to be lower than the deposit rates that banks receive at the ecb -30 basis points. if they were to reduce the interest rate on the tltro's, that could be a really big game changer and stimulus because you provide financing to the banking sector, which they have to pass on, at a lower interest rate then deposit rate that banks are getting at the ecb. that an effect would be a direct transfer from the ecb to the private sector. that is the thing to watch. efficacy ofit, the lower rates, more q.e., frankly, virtually nill. they are doing it because they feel they have to do something because they are missing their inflation target and growth has been week. i would watch the interest rate on tltro's. that is the most important thing
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in my view. paul: a frequent complaint from central bankers is that more needs to be done on the fiscal stimulus side, but you make the point that europe, fiscal expansion is effectively banned. can you explain what you mean by that and how effective it would be if fiscal stimulus took place? that we 100%, i agree need more fiscal stimulus. the trouble is there is no willingness in germany. it seems, maybe things are changing, but today, there has been no willingness in terms of doing fiscal stimulus, and in countries that are more indebted than the rules in europe means that they cannot really do any fiscal stimulus. iten where bond yields are, is a no-brainer for governments either to be cutting taxes or doing more stimulus more generally. that would be very welcome and that is something i think mario draghi will mention in his press
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conference today. shery: let's talk about brexit. we have seen the u.k. publishing their no deal brexit planning. is there any planning that investors are markets can do given that we have really no idea what this process -- where this process could go. tristan: right. markets have been dealing with the uncertainty for a long time. the movesresting, and by parliament to try and block a no deal brexit -- we still at this point to really do not know how things are going to develop. investors just have to accept the uncertainty. but if you look at the u.k. assets, you can get a 5% dividend yield on the ftse 100, and you would expect in five years time that earnings and dividends be higher than they are today, so if you are willing to take on the uncertainty, i think you will get well rewarded. none of us know what the next
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few months hold just as we have seen in the last three years, really. this is a very unpredictable process. the one thing i would say is whatever the outcome of brexit, i think that in the u.k. contrasting to europe at this bit ofe will get quite a fiscal stimulus. either the current administration will loosen fiscally, or if we see a change in government, that is also likely to involve fiscal stimulus is as well. so i think this is something to bear in mind when thing about brexit. paul: tristan hanson, thank you for joining us. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. gtvberg subscribers go to , and you can customize your settings so you are only getting news that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ the editor in chief of china's most prominent statewide a newspaper says beijing tariffs exemption on some u.s. goods and should not be seen as a concession. he also hopes that john bolton's the parts are from the white house will be positive for u.s.-china relations, who spoke exclusively to bloomberg in beijing. think the possibility of achieving substantial progress is greater than before. why is that? isense that the u.s. side also anxious because the trade war has caused adverse effects on the u.s. economy. i cannot see a substantial reason why the united states has continued to fight the trade war with china for a long time. itchina has announced that will make some exemptions to the tariffs that it imposes on
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chinese goods. should we see that as a concession on the chinese side ahead of the talks in october? >> let's not think of it as a concession, it is a goodwill gesture. it is different from a concession. >> does the departure of john bolton make a trade deal between the u.s. and china more likely? so, however, among the u.s. government and the trump administration, bolton is not the only one who takes a tough stance on china. play aly, bolton did not positive role on ending the trade war between china and the united states and improving relations. hopefully, it is a good sign he is out of the picture. >> is there a debate going on within the government about trying to wait out president trump beyond 2020 -- is that a part of the discussion? is on ane may say this
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certain occasion, but this is not a serious route or strategy. china has always hoped to make agreement sooner. bully chinatries to , then whoever will be elected president will not be a very important factor and china will continue to hold its ground for a long time. paul: that is global times editor-in-chief. he spoke with our china correspondent, tom mackenzie. than $20e raised more billion for its largest real estate fund ever. the billions of dollars raised in 2015. institutions such as the public pension plan and the insurance company to protect against inflation and diversified holdings. sales felltric car
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♪ announced goods that will be exempt from 25% tariffs impose last year, as beijing seeks to ease the impact of the trade war without lifting duties on soybeans and pork. lubricants -- foils and lubricants are among the exclusions, and they cover 16 categories worth more than $1 billion. president trump has resumed his attack on the fed, saying interest rate should be zero or less to help the u.s. refinance its debt.
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pollweets come as a news says most americans fear a recession in the next 12 months. the president has accused jay powell and his colleagues for being naïve of not emulating the policies of other central banks and describes the fed chairman and his team as "boneheads." malaysia,sion day in policymakers expected to keep rates on hold, although trade tensions are raising pressures for more easing. , 16 forecastomist the benchmark rate will stay at basisile eight ca 25 a 25 basis-- see point cut. chinese woman who entered president trump's mar-a-lago resort when he and his family were there has been convicted of trespassing and of lying to the secret service. herselfear-old defended
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in court. she now faces prison as questions linger about what she was doing in the resort and the level of security at the time. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: stocks across asia gaining ground as we see this rally spread through asia. let's check the markets. extending gains at the highest level since july 30, under pressure, breaching 108 for the first time since august 1 with trade and central banks and focus. firmeraysian ringgit is ahead of the decision this thursday. on the aussie kiwi dollar, gaining ground after trump announced a tariffs a delay on
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china. we are seeing moves in the offshore yuan as well. below 7.10 for the first time in three weeks, while implied volatility extending declines for a sixth session. we are seeing contract afterthening below 7.15, breaching 7.26 at the start of the month. i want to check some equity movers in the region. in tokyo, jumping to a december 14 hi on yahoo japan tendering for majority stake. the stock is remaining below 26.20 yen. softbank shares rising, owning 32% of yahoo japan. paul: the departure of john bolton moved the oil markets, and it continues to be built.
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bolton was supposed to president trump easing sanctions on iran. our energy reporter joins us now from singapore. appears to beng moving the crude price. is.t bolton was a hawkish member of the trump administration and was against reconciliation with iran. that means his view is they harder sanctions until regime change or basic change inside the government. because of that, the market looked at it as iran would not be able to export oil in the sanctions would remain in place. with bolton out, the price fell because the market is expecting more iranian supply in the market at some point, and again, it fell yesterday because trump, according to bloomberg reporting, potentially would meet with the iranian president
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were honey at the united nations rouhanian president later this month at the united nations. this weakness will add supply and more oversupply in 2020. shery: we are seeing wti and brent gaining ground. we have the risk on rally across asia as president trump delayed those extra tariffs on chinese goods, but what happens if we do see an influx of iranian crude, and is that a possibility? that is everything the market is looking at, at the moment. it depends on how trump negotiations go. japanese buyers, chinese buyers, korean, indian buyers would be willing to buy the supplies, but they can't buy them because of the sanctions. they have asked for concessions
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and have not received them. so there is a chance that if talks go well and trump continues this line, you could potentially see more iranian supply coming into the market, but it is too early to tell where we will go. there is the unpredictable factor inside the trump administration, so hard to make a call at the moment. paul: let's talk about karen because ipo, some developments there. what are the latest? >> according to bloomberg reporting, there could be nine banks taking part in the ipo to help them bring a listing to the local saudi market. morgan,banks like j.p. morgan stanley, credit suisse, citibank, all potentially getting a piece and playing a role in this ipo, and as well you could see a local ipo as early as november. ofy could list from 1% to 3%
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aramco on that market. right now all eyes are on whether they will be having an ipo as soon as this year. there is a meeting in abu dhabi this week. what can we expect? >> we will not be expecting a giant cut in production. we have a new saudi oil minister who said he was going to keep with what was happening before, no big policy change, so you should not expect any changes. there were some developments this morning that make things look better, but there is a sense that the trade war will continue and it could sap demand in 2020, adding to more oversupply concern when you look at iran. they will be talking about that, and maybe there will be deeper cuts to opec production and exports in the december meeting, but it is still early and there
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president trump delaying increased tariffs on chinese goods. in's talk about one deal particular we are focusing one in asia. the london stock exchange weighing an unsolicited $37 billion bid from hong kong exchanges and clearing. andhong kong bureau chief the deals editor is with us. tell us about the timing of this deal. >> the timing is surprising. caught was announced, it a lot of people by surprise. it is interesting, not just for the size, but the two of the biggest exchanges in the world in terms of volumes and listings. you are right, it is unsolicited , so there is uncertainty whether this deal will go through. is also the
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differentrom the angles. why would they consider putting this together? think nowadays the stock exchanges are competing heavily with each other. they are strong competitors. so by having a merger, it is good for the hong kong exchange. paul: i wonder if part of the reason is hold the unrest we have seen in hong kong recently. i'm wondering if it has been weighing on the ipo outlook for hong kong as well. you are looking at a decrease in ipo's for hong kong, aren't you? this unrest have has had
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an effect on august numbers. is a temporary issue. i hope it will be getting better, but in general, the whole asia-pacific ipo market is warining, due to a trade and other factors affecting ipo's, so that's why we expect a decrease in ipo's and several companies that decided not to come to hong kong immediately. half, the general declining trend is a good estimate for the hong kong ipo situation, but that depends on the alibaba deal, whether they will come to hong kong or not. shery: bloomberg has learned ab invev is continuing to explore a potential ipo of its unit.
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that was pulled earlier this year. how big of a boost with that the for the hong kong exchanges that does happen? the hongome right now, kong exchange in these two months is not having good results, so big deals which surely help the market and help regain confidence. on the other side, i see some medium-sized ipos coming in some on the roadshow, that is why still have hope that the number we willline, or maybe have alibaba. shery: how much are those listings being helped by the fact hong kong changed some of their listing regulation and some reforms on that front? changes,k the recent asluding what we describe
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other activities, i think that will decline the number of ipos. some smaller size companies exit by selling to other investors to have a problem injecting are becoming an ipo candidate. that is one factor. i think most of the deals will ipost the total number of for hong kong. earlier this year, monster great fanfare was the tech board in china. has itet or exceeded your expectations so far? >> so far, it is. it has a high pe multiple come in the liquidity for the first several months is still quite good.
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leastsome of them, at more than 40 times multiple as compared to hong kong, would have an objective in terms of pricing. multiple, itgh p won't be sustained for too long, so that is why hong kong's for such aniz -- high pe multiple, it won't be sustained for too long, so that is why hong kong remains competitive. paul: what are some of the highlights and what are you keeping and i on now? some other biotech come out, some education companies, and property management companies have good results, and also some of the game companies, which may be upcoming. shery: how about your prospects for the a-share ipo market,
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especially given the launch of the star? a-share, thethe decline as far as this year, but for the star, they bought and have a lot of candidates in the pipeline. kidding --und 100 rb -- i think around 100 of them are waiting. shery: thank you for joining us. there is more on hong kong's bid for the london stock exchange later when we speak with the former ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ paul: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." incident trout campaign is spurring the tech sector -- president trump's campaign is spurring the tech sector. our reporter joins us now. what are these tech companies up to? >> china doesn't want to be only the manufacturer of tech, it also wants to design tech.
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there are a few of these companies trying to up into the dominance by u.s. tech companies. you asked how this happened. the keyword is geographic proximity, because innovation and research doesn't only happen in the rmd centers -- research and development centers, but also the manufacturing side, and having that close proximity to the manufacturers is an important element. -- some cities are becoming a nexus for suppliers and component makers, and being so close to the heart of the action helps. mean that that chinese tech companies can no described as mere copycats? >> i think they are on their weight, but not quite there yet. apple is still leading the way,
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and we see the issue of copyright infringement coming up. it is hard to sue a chinese company on their own turf, so it is a slow progression. tech: what areas are these companies catching up on? research andf development innovation, you have a lot of talent flowing into the region. another area where chinese companies have lagged behind his fundraising, branding, and marketing. we are seeing companies really trying to attract funding from foreign overseas vc investors and not losing the battle to their western counterparts in terms of marketing. thanks very much for joining us. let's check the latest business flash headlines. as firstll after hours
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quarter revenue this is. 9.2 billion dollars, but below expectations. a leave oftaking absence for health-related reasons, and larry ellison in the co-coo oversee his responsibilities. >> mark was extremely engaged with the end of the quarter, but now he needs to focus on his health and taking care of himself. the three of us have always worked as a team on managing oracle. larry and i will cover mark's responsibilities during his absence with support from the rest of our strong management team. uber and lyft gained with the news the governor of california is open to legislation exclusions.
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kevin newsom is personally involved in discussions with both companies, saying he remains committed to talks. paul: cathay pacific says traffic has fallen the most in a decade as it struggles with the fallout from the unrest in hong kong. they carried 2.9 million people in august, a drop of 11% from a year ago, and the biggest fall since 2009. some staff supported democracy protests, propping beijing to warn against using the airline. shery: yahoo japan is near a deal, stepping up rivalry with amazon and others. yahoo! is planning to buy more than 50% of the company, with the support of its founder. oft company has a market cap more than $6 billion and has carved out a niche in online
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fashion against rivals such as amazon. paul: thailand attempts to boost growth with billions of dollars of stimulus, but is hampered by the surging baht, as the currency strengthened against the dollar and 2019, the most in asia and the most in the world over the past five years. tourism and hit exports, contributing to the weakest economic expansion since 2014. shery: time to get a preview of what to watch in markets this morning. focus.w, ratings and had its price target cut to 12.50 by jeffries. a downgrade at citigroup for the hong kong exchange, cut to sell from a buy in the wake of the high alpha price and a deal that will not be approved by regulators. , downside is sjm
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seen as limited as fair value level. we're also watching a property company with results due this thursday. this has hong kong's biggest developer cut prices for flats in the city by 25%. checking in on the offshore yuan , trading below 7.10 for the first time in three weeks, as implied volatility is declining on the back of trump offering a tariff reprieve on the timeline for china. shery: thank you so much for that. let's get a quick look at how markets are trading right now. the japanese nikkei gaining almost 1% as we see this risk on move curbing the strength of the
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japanese yen, which is now trading at above 100.0 against the u.s. dollar, stocks gaining ground, while the asx 200 is up 0.6%. tech and real estate stocks leading gains. u.s. futures are higher at the this afterning 0.5%, president trump delayed those tariffs increases on $250 billion of chinese goods. the offshore yuan at the moment trading at 7.09. we thought it came ground after president trump's tweet. that is it. market coverage continues. the china open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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♪ david: in your career, you won 18 majors, which is the most of many think beating your record is possible. jack: i don't know, tiger is pretty good. [laughter] in those days, compensation was good, but not compared to today. jack: i was making as much money selling insurance as playing golf. david: what makes a great golfer? concentration? physical ability? jack: i think winning breeds winning. >> would you fix your tie, please? david: well, people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed, but ok. just leave iis
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