paul: welcome to "daybreak australia." are counting down to asia's major market opens. ♪ paul: the top stories we are covering in the next hour -- optimism returns while speculation of a trade deal with the u.s. may offer an interim agreement. overcomes powerful critics and revives ecb stimulus. france and germany let

opposition to the plan. and oil falls as opec calls on producers to abide by output shery: shery:. let's start with a check of how markets closed in the u.s. the s&p 500 closing above 3000 again, just one 5% short of its all-time high. it was boosted not only by fresh stimulus coming out of the european central bank but also a bloomberg report that the trump administration is now considering offering a limited trade deal to china. we saw the dow gaining 45 points on the nasdaq closing at a july high, gaining for a second consecutive session. almost every sector on the s&p 500 was on the green except for energy. as paul mentioned earlier, oil fell today. we had the international energy agency warning opec of a daunting surplus of crude. that really not helping the oil market. u.s. futures at the moment

unchanged. let's see how we are setting up for asia. sophie: this friday, asian futures are hinting at gains. central bank development's very much top of mind. overnightust holding after a volatile session which morgan stanley calls a reluctant boost given the concerns we have around fiscal stimulus noted by draghi. goldman is waving the red flag around disappointing chinese growth, so it has cut its forecast on copper and aluminum. heads up, guys. we do have trade data from india. on first's chicken word news now with jessica summers. malaysia kept its benchmark rate unchanged. the economy shows steady growth despite the global slowdown.

the bank kept its growth projection for this year unchanged at four point 3% to 4.8% -- 4.3% to 4.8%, but says that is subject to further downside risks from worsening trade tensions. oil as op and allies fall -- call on producers to abide by an agreed output current. the international energy agency also noted the difficulty the cartel faces in pressing the market. traders weighed the rising threat to opec from new sources of crude. oil has fallen from a peak in april as the prolonged trade war has dented the outlook for global demand. u.k. prime minister boris johnson denies lying to the queen when he advised her to support his plan to suspend parliament head of brexit. he spoke after a scottish court ruled the suspension is

unlawful, although an english court decided otherwise. brexit is due in just 50 days, and johnson insists it will happen with or without a deal. brussels says you can negotiators have brought nothing new and that johnson is not serious. >> yet to give the impression that he is negotiating in good faith. theink his plan is to take u.k. out of the european union without any deal, but at the same time be in a position to blame the european union, so he must project the nature of someone who negotiates in good faith, who once a deal, et the option is not done to him but to the others. jessica: global news 24 hours a day at tictoc and -- on air and at tictoc on twitter. shery: big news from the u.s. and europe over the past few hours. there's speculation washington and beijing could be moving

closer to a trade deal, and the ecb cut its main rate further below zero and says it will resume buying bonds for as long as needed. let's discuss all this with our globalorrespondent, our economics editor, and our global macro strategist. we have just heard from president trump, speaking at the white house, saying on china, he does not want an interim deal. he is still considering an interim deal. what do we know so far? tom: our sources in washington say they have been considering, his team, this potential freeze in terms of the trade conflict, which would involve possibly -- we are still waiting for exact details, but possibly it would involve china making commitments around intellectual property, and in return, you get a freezing and potential removal of some of the tariffs from the u.s. side. we are still waiting for details

as to if it would include purchases of u.s. farm goods from china as well. of course, president trump has yet to sign off on this, but it does come up ahead of two round of talks. with working level talks next week between the two sides, and at some point in october, we will get the chinese lead negotiator and vice premier heading to washington to continue the negotiations at the top level with his u.s. counterparts. that's where we live. the interim deal, of course, we are still waiting, as we said, for the exact details. also a big question mark is if wally -- huawei would be part of that as well because china wants to see restrictions on huawei .ase it could be the first time the u.s. draws back some of its tariffs if it comes to that. we have seen some goodwill measures in the last few days.

if we get additional progress between now and october is, of course, in focus. paul: it is obviously very early there in china, but has there been any official response so far? still waiting for official response, but we do know they have set parameters that are acceptable to them. some of the key components would be the removal of tariffs, a balanced trade deal and less onerous demands in terms of their purchases of u.s. farm goods. it's pretty concvable ina would accept this kind of interim deal given the intellectual property would benefit companies here in terms of tightening up the regime and china would say they have already taken steps in that direction. in terms of purchases of agricultural products from the u.s., again, china has its own mystic needs, and it would benefit china to ramp up imports of things like soybeans and u.s. pork, so it is conceivable china could sign off on this if some of its own concerns are addressed as well. of course, we saw a risk

on days with markets with the s&p 500 just short of that record high. i wonder how much was it to do with trade news, given that we have had really so many different trade headlines so far. >> today was a pretty russia day when it came to trade news. we started rallying with ecb stimulus. it was a little bit more initially than markets had expected. the dow futures were up around .0 or so prior to the market they backed off a little bit as draghi's speech went on, painting glue -- gloomy picture of the global economy, especially europe, and when trade news hit, we spiked rapidly, and of course, we came back down almost to flat after cnbc said a senior white house official refuted that there was an interim trade deal. it picked up again as the markets took hold of i guess all the data, and i think the markets just want to believe that an interim trade deal is in the picture, so we did pose a

rally, but then just about 10 minutes into the close, we saw the markets peel off again, so we just ended up with a modest gain. shery: president trump saying it is something we would consider, i guess, referring to that interim agreement. paul: let's talk about the ecb now a little more. i want to bring in kathleen hays. super mario, as he has come to be known, dusting off that bazooka again. what has him so worried? kathleen: for months, mario draghi thought by now he would be putting in the first rate hike for the ecb. he is obviously getting worried about where the economy is heading, and he realizes it is time to do something, so what did they do? let's start with the fact the ecb is getting more negative. from -0.4 on their deposit rate

to -0.5, giving banks exemptions from the negative rates for some of their deposits, banks have been crying loud and long about how much that is hurti their profitability. mario draghi himself said that he does not see a recession, but those risks are rising. he cited geopolitical uncertainty hitting business, protectionism around the world and low inflation expectations and needing to anchor them. one more thing i think is just so interesting to look at to flesh all this out, let's go into our bloomberg library. you are going to see europe's pmi, composite for the whole area. it has been below 50 since february of this year. contractionary state. look at the latest number on gdp for the euro area. course, already posted, one quarter of negative growth, too, and they will be in recession.

already posted one quarter of negative growth. two and they will be in recession. mario draghi said it was a clear majority and he did not need a vote, trying to make this look as strong as he could. paul: we saw some interesting moves in the euro in the past few hours. big dip and then a recovery. talk us through it. kathleen: it has much to do with a very important story broken by our own bloomberg news in europe talking to officials close to the matter. a revolt,re was unprecedented. mario draghi has never seen anything like this, core europe resisting quantitative easing. that's germany, the netherlands, and france. statements from the likes of the governor of the dutch central bank. he had already pushed back and made it clear he was in favor of more qe.

they were arguing it is probably better to save qe for an emergency like a hard brexit, so obviously, they had some support, some dissenters, but that unsettled the markets. they were looking for this dovish move, and i think they are wondering what happens next. next for theappens fed, given we are expecting them to come out next week, but at the same time, we had the surprise expansion in core cpi today? quick setting markets pricing and 100% chance for a 25-basis point cut next week. i think that is pretty much in the cards. what is interesting, though, is they lowered their bets on the potential for 50-basis-point cut and i would argue that should maybe be priced the other way. draghi definitely opened the door for the fed to see the overall global picture, especially now in the euro area, deteriorating even further, but

it does give him the opportunity to go 50 basis points next week if he would like to. that is if he gets the president office tail a little bit. i think 25 is pretty much painted in. will he do 50? it is a hard guess, but i think zero is definitely too little. shery: thank you so much. our global macro strategist in new york, and also our thanks to china correspondent and our global economics and policy editor as well. still ahead, opec and its allies are urging opec to respond to the threat of more oil supply. : of next, the latest to sound the alarm on a u.s. recession, warning of a downturn before the election next year. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: let's get straight to

president trump at the white house speaking earlier today on the possibility of an interim deal with china. >> are you considering any kind of interim deal with the chinese where they make a commitment -- >> it is something people talk about. i would rather get the whole deal done. we have taken in many billions of dollars of tariffs. i would rather get the entire chinese done -- look, if we are going to do the deal, let's get it done. a lot of people are talking about and i see a lot of analysts saying an interim deal, meaning we will do pieces of it, the easy one first, but there's no easy or hard. there's a deal or not a deal. but it is something we would consider, i guess. but we are doing very well. i did a little bit of a delay and honor of president xi because it is their 70th anniversary in china. >> what do you expect out of the debate tonight?

>> it's too bad i'm going to miss it. i'm going to have to have it somehow taped. i did not even tell them about that, so maybe it's not that important. but it is important. it's going to be interesting. i look forward to going home -- we are going to have to watch it as a rerun. paul: we believe that there. from sapphire talking about the prospect of an interim agreement with china, even though he would like to get the whole thing worked out. a billionaire money manager warning the u.s. that there is a recession coming. says, "we should be on recession watch before the 2020 election, but we are not there yet." let's discuss that now with jake silverman. the 75% recession risk before the next election, a production he made last month. what is your feeling? does that sound and little high? >> it is interesting he would put that marker out there, that pre-election marker. we are of the view that there is this prevailing sentiment that

recession is looming, barring any aggressive action on the part of the central banks, and the central banks have proven they are prepared to take that action, given the ecb's actions today. the real question will be what happens between now and the election in terms of companies seeking capital, in light of the easing monetary policy, the availability of credit, and record valuations. little know you have a recession indicator of your own you're watching in terms of what has been going on with ipo's. we had smile direct club today sinking 20% below its ipo price. wework and pellet er it bit of a ub letdown. >> we are in a time were given the availability of equity

capital and credit that companies if they are ready or not, are seeking that capital. the question for investors is how to determine if companies are truly ready. what we see with some of these names is that perhaps investors are of the view that they are not ready. path to profitability and perhaps more importantly, a view that in terms of governance and basic management controls they have not fully developed, and that is something we are seeing with our clients who are really seeking help with regard to governance, cybersecurity, and the basic trappings of keeping a company safe. no wonder there is so much scrutiny over the potential comingf wework, peleton up. in this environment, what are investors looking at? >> i think in this environment, given that valuations are so high and the opportunity for failure is so near, that

companies -- investors, i should say, are looking for companies that have a clear path not only to profitability but sustained profitability and proper governance. that is really what we are hearing about from the capital markets universe globally at this point. all of this coming at a time when we have a lot of dealmaking. we heard of the hong kong exchange wanting to buy lse. a lot happening in the m&a sphere as well. >> we are seeing a lot of defensive m&a, and i think some of those situations are born out of geopolitics and the need for consolidation and some core areas of infrastructure. at the same time, we are seeing the m&a bar in terms of diligence that much higher because valuations are that much higher. deal cadence per attracting and therefore, companies have to be ready in terms of having their controls in place.

tom -- paul: i want to bring up this chart on the bloomberg terminal showing that 60% of stocks on the new york stock exchange now above their 15 -- 50-day moving average. just to the point you made about ipo's, putting together a good story about future earnings, i wonder how much of this chart you can put down to a fantastic future earnings story or if it is just the fed topping up the punch bowl. >> i think there's a significant amount of momentum in the market driven by fed actions and the central bankers' focus on making sure that we are driving a low interest rate environment. that said, there are a number of industries that are performing. been reasonably good. rearview indicators are certainly positive, and that will also help to contribute to higher stock performance, but at the same time, any missteps,

given where things stand, could drive not only idiosyncratic companies down, but the overall market down. paul: in your view, is that one of the key risks of the moment, a potential policy error from the fed, or are you looking for something else? >> given the expectations, if there is a policy error or geopolitical conflagration, if that comes in the form of trade wars, interest rate wars, or actual wars, that will create real pressure on this market for all the obvious reasons. shery: of course, in the meantime, there is brexit drama ongoing in the background. we were seeing that no brexit deal planning under the name of yellow hammer operation has come forth. the picture early does not look good. you have all this happening in europe, and the economy slowing. brexit still hanging on the line. the u.s. economy, though, pretty strong. how are your clients playing

these different regions? >> the interconnectivity is what is most on our clients' mind, not only in terms of how trade impacts various companies' earnings performance, but also how the lines of communication, the lines of technology, the potential for bad actors to potentially attack companies via trade or cyber -- those are really the concerns on people's minds. ultimately, companies are focused on how they can best govern and protect themselves reputation he, technologically, and of course, in terms of financial performance. >> thank you so much for joining us. of course, you can get a round about the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of "daybreak." bloomberg subscribes, go to dayb on your terminals. you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

you are watching "daybreak australia." let's get a quick check of the latest business f headles. general electric is planning to buy back about $5 billion of bonds as part of a turnaround plan. the repurchase will cover up to $2.5 billion of debt, and the equivalent in euro denominated metals. reducing debt is the cornerstone of the ceo's attempt to overhaul ge after one of the worst months in the company's history. late broadcom fell in trade after reiterating the bearish forecast it gave three months ago. rose to $5.5period billion. broadcom says it still expect revenue in fiscal 2019 to be

22.5 billion dollars, the lowest projection it has made since june. shery: the house panel examining deadly crashes involving the boeing 737 max want to interview staff who worked on the plane's development of the transportation and infrastructure committee has written to boeing's you requesting the interviews. it says employees may be able to shed on the issues surrounding the plane and its worldwide grounding in march. marathon asset management says recession warnings are starting to flash red. our exclusive one-on-one with ceo bruce richards is next. we are seeing futures at the moment gaining a little bit of ground with u.s. futures slightly higher and asia futures pointing higher as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the risks surrounding euro area growth outlook remained tilted to the downside. we still think the probability of recession for the euro area is small, but it has gone up in view of the weakening economic outlook, and the continued prominence of downside risks. government's with fiscal space should act in an effective and timely manner. to pursuemandate price stability and we don't target exchange rates. : that was ecb president mario drugging speaking after he

overcame his critics to deliver new euros on stimulus. marathon asset management says the rate cuts and renewed qe only served to fuel a riskier credit environment. the chairman and ceo told us exclusively why he does not think the stimulus will help the euro zone economy. >> it's actually pretty sad to say for a few reasons. number one, all this is doing is putting treasuries in europe and around the globe at further negative rates. you have 17 trillion treasuries trading at negative returns, which is crazy town. number one. number two is doing nothing to stimulate aggregate demand. look at germany, for instance, slipping into recession or at least zero growth. u.k., slowing as well. much of europe mired in what is a very slow economic environment here. number three, the equity

markets, in terms of aggregate demand and what it does to earnings, is not responding either. that this is nothing more than further financial repression, a way of governments around the world able to borrow at very negative rates to finance their big deficits and to be a tax on savings. think aboutu corporate growth in that environment? zombienvestable, these companies getting more and more money for less and less interest? >> all this does is create more of a debt bubble. it allows companies to borrow at very cheap rates and does nothing to stimulate aggregate demand, so we think it is a monetary trap that is being created. it's actually very unhealthy environment that is being created. for the time being, the markets

are stable. the markets will do well, but at , it creates this hunger games, where does one with capital go to earn a return? opportunities for yield? >> there are. we are not investing much in europe because of how overpriced both debt and equity markets are based upon where treasuries are. having said that, the biggest place of opportunity for us in europe is our continued activity buying nonperforming loans from european banks, and we are capitalizing off of these very low rates. we have the lowest financing rates in the world, meanwhile fake real estate through buying nonperforming loans through the banks in europe. we bought three packages over the summer and are in the

process of buying another three between now and year-end and we are buying hundreds of millions -- so we have bought billions of these nonperforming loans that results in us owning real estate . >> the banks did get a dig from mario draghi. it is hard for them to earn that kind of rate of return. it's also hard for them to make loans. >> what happens to the banking sector itself, and why are you so confident? >> europe is stable because the monetary policy.

otherwise, the economies make it stable. isconfidence in europe simply along the lines of we can reaestate properties. employment is trending lower. people need to live in multifamily apartments and stay in hotels. we bought a lot of very attractive assets, again, financed at very low rates. having said that, are there a lot of corporate opportunities at this time? no. after brexit, when october 31 comes and goes, we will see if there's more opportunities in the u.k. right now, it is a waiting game and waiting to see that outcome. >> he and other investors digested the line from the ecb. it was a volatile session indeed for the euro as it jumped on lowerut before swinging

peer the common currency recovered on the ecb, the chief noting the low chance of recession and underscoring the limits of the central bank's toolkit saying fiscal policy should be the main instrument. earlier on bloomberg, axel merk says he things we will be euro.ng a new era for the now to first word news with jessica summers. jessica: thanks. sources in washington say administration officials have discussed offering an interim trade deal to china that would delay or even remove some tariffs. we are told the potential deal would come in exchange for beijing's commitment on intellectual property and purchases of u.s. farm products.

however, president trump did tell reporters he still wants wider agreement. and some of america's closest allies are calling for an end to the trade war. australia, canada, singapore, and indonesia issued a joint statement calling for an end to the standoff. writing in the australian newspaper, their finance ministers warned the post-world war ii multilateral system is under threat. they acknowledge there are legitimate issues to be addressed but say the threat of collateral damage is rising. indian inflation accelerated the most since october while remaining within the r.b.i.'s medium-term target and bolstering expectations for interest rates. consumer prices rose 3.2% in august from a year earlier, mediany lower than the estimate. inflation has now been below the for 13 straight months.

and the pro-democracy drive in hong kong hit a new tone with thousands of people belting out . protest song the rising creativity of the movement. more protests are expected this weekend and police have denied a permit for one rally. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks very much, jessica. oils slump as opec and its allies urged members to stick to the green production cuts but thoset discuss deepening curves. saudi arabia's new minister says the situation will be discussed at the end of the year. >> we will cut voluntary productions to end of year, and

definitely, we would have the meeting in december. as i said earlier, we would review what we would need to do. paul: bloomberg's energy editor joins us. what are the key takeaways from the opec meeting? >> sure. i think one big take away is investors need a little bit more reassurance that opec is going to be able to first -- for a sustained period of time actually be able to balance the market. we did not see a lot come out of today's meeting. we have crude down now for the third straight day, and the meeting did not do much to reverse that, but as you pointed out, this was the first time the new saudi energy minister has participated, and we reported he played a pretty instrumental role bringing iraq and nigeria to the table and getting them in line on production cuts. we will just have to see if that bears out in the future. the international energy

agency also moving the markets, warning of a daunting market surplus in 2020. what is the picture look like? >> it's not looking great at this moment. said, wee hand, as you have a looming supply glut coming in 2020. the iaea said current production cuts by opec are not enough to prevent that. they would have to go deeper to stop that from happening. on the other hand, you have growing fears that economic recession will behipping away at demand. the u.s. eia this week revised down its forecast for demand growth for 20 and revised it down below one million barrels a day. that's the eighth downward revision and so far the most bearish estimate we have for 2019. so much for you that update on the opec plus a meeting in abu dhabi. we have a huge energy coming up with u.s. energy secretary rick perry.

don't miss that. coming up next, goldman sachs turning more bullish on the euro. this is bloomberg. ♪

dipy: the euro went for a thursday, its first weekend after the ecb announced rate cuts and restriction of bond purchases, but then it snapped back after bloomberg reported unprecedented opposition to the kiwi within the ecb. goldman sachs ended its short call on euro-dollar ahead of the meeting. great to have you back. you made the right call on the short euro call being close, but we have why, given that

seen mario draghi is going out with a bang. it is an aggressive stimulus package. >> it was a very big easy package. it was not about what happened today but about what mario draghi seemed to be indicating for the future. the ecb seems to be coming to the end of the line of what it is able to do. you can only buy so many bonds, cut so many rates deeply negative. mario draghi made it clear that the ecb would prefer fiscal stimulus, which is the key takeaway for investors. rates went up because it sounded like they were not going to cut much further. what happened to potentially other issues in europe including a no deal brexit? >> there's plenty of risks on both sides. no deal brexit is a concern, but there's upside risk as well. certainly, if mario draghi is

successful prodding national governments to pump the fiscal machinery, the euro has upside risk as well. we think a much more balanced risk and more compelling short case then where we were a year ago today. paul: mario draghi had little doubt when he said they were not targeting the currency, but president trump responded pretty swiftly with a tweet basically accusing the ecb of exactly that. do you have any lingering concerns with all that rhetoric that we could be on the brink of a currency war? >> currency war is a big concern for a lot of investors. what i would say is direct intervention by the u.s. government still seems less likely than not, although i would not entirely rule it out, either. maybe one in five or one in four chance. it is clear the white house is disappointed, frustrated with the strong level of the u.s. dollar. it is affecting u.s. trade and manufacturing activities in a number of key states.

intervention at some level is plausible. we do not think it is right around the corner, but something that could be coming, especially if the euro continues to slide down to 1.05 or further, i think intervention is something that could become significantly more like her -- likely. paul: how do you see the outlook for the dollar? paul: in the context of an unsettled global market environment and global growth environment, the dollar probably strengthens a bit further. the dollar has been benefiting recently from a sort of classic flight to quality out of a variety of equity and fixed income markets around the world and into treasuries. that has been pushing down treasury yields and lifting the dollar. as long as that continues, as long as trade war concerns and global growth concerns remain prominent, the dollar will be supported and we think that will be the case for at least the next few months. if the trade war somehow goes away and you can alleviate concerns about downside risk to the global economy, it's possible the dollar could soften

up again, but that would not be our base case. you have had your long yen call on hold. what happens if in fact we do get an interim trade deal? barometer for a lot of things in the global economy and with global risk sentiment improving a bit now that the white house and beijing are talking again, the yen has underperformed a little bit in the last few days, but we still think the yen should be held by most investors, both assets investors and more broadly for portfolio protection. it's pretty hard to find undervalued safe haven assets in global markets today. yen really screams as the one major asset that is still cheap and should perform well in a downturn. we still think the yen has a role to play for most investors, either directionally or as a hedge to other risky assets. shery: with a level of the chinese yuan as well be decided by how the trade war goes?

>> we have seen that volatility as well in the last couple of with dollar-you on rising up to 720 and then coming back down. we ultimately think the yuan will depreciate a bit further and we do not really see these from the last couple of days as leading to a sustained deal. maybe there is a window of opportunity over the next month or so as trade talks continue, but looking into the fourth quarter, we do not see really a sustainable path to a proper trade deal between the u.s. and china. you have talked about the underperformance of the indian rupee. the indian where are we going there? >> i think that's a picture that has underperformed over the past couple of months. that would be maybe a tactical opportunity to get long in our globalg inr has

markets are a little calmer with trade talks continuing. i would say the indian domestic growth picture does not look for steen. the economy does have challenges, and that's one of the reasons for the underperformance, but i think it does make sense at least in the asia complex. the other i would add to the list is the brazilian real. probably the best this location opportunities to take advantage of a little bit better tone and markets over the near term. let you go, just have to get your thoughts on the british pound. fully priced in the market or has the brexit story not reached its nadir? >> we remain constructive. we think we are probably heading for a deal and that has been our long-standing base case. however, it is frankly too uncertain, i think, for investors to be sticking their

neck out, at least over the short term. we do not know enough about the prime minister's strategy over the next couple of months or if we will be looking at an election as soon as november. we need to have a little more boris johnson pivots toward a deal that would satisfy enough members of parliament as well as brussels to get something over the line at the end of october. if not, still plenty of volatility, maybe some downside risk for the pound. watching closely, not ready to recommend long sterling. paul: thanks so much for joining us. more ahead on "daybreak australia." this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: you're watching "daybreak australia."

let's get a quick check on our latest business flash headlines. hong kong's biggest property developer posted a near 7% jump before the political crisis intensified. underlying profit rose more than 4 billion u.s. dollars in the year ending june 30, slightly missing median analysts of those -- slightly missing the median of analysts polled by bloomberg. japan's long-suffering savers have put up with virtually zero interest rates are years, but at least bank accounts are free. that may change. jp morgan says lenders may impose lane tenant -- maintenance fees. a boj board member warned last month that lenders may have to consider such a move. : twitter has blocked of the accounts of cuban leader raul castro as well as the country's main media outlets.

twitter adds there is an appeals declined to comment further. shery: democrats hoping to unseat president trump next year preparing for their third debate. this will be different in format, issues, and dynamic. is heref correspondent to talk about it. we saw past debates dominated by health care, immigration issues. what will you be watching tonight? andhree things are first foremost, the politics of former vice president joe biden taking center stage for the first time tonight against senators elizabeth warren and bernie sanders. top surrogates of the biden campaign attacking senator

elizabeth warren. on someonep an eye like cory booker, amy klobuchar, beto o'rourke, to some extent senator let harris -- kamala harris? can onof those candidates make the case that they are the alternative to joe biden should his campaign collapse? this is very much an economic debate on display and we are beginning to see some of the contrast between campaigns. on terrace, four exam will come beto o'rourke has said tariffs are something on the order of a tax on american consumers, but others have argued tariffs should be a tool the u.s. utilizes when negotiating with other foreign governments. wery: on economic issues, have already seen elizabeth warren floating a $200 a month social security boost, this

coming through taxes for the rich. how are these issues going to play out? to be on full display as biden looks to solidify his case as front runner, as he looks to make the case that some of these progressive ideas might not be as pragmatic and approach in a general election matchup. strategists, to they say it was bernie sanders who beat hillary clinton and the michigan primary. they also look at someone like elizabeth warren who is an oklahoma native who has spent the crux of her campaign season campaigning in the heartland so far. the bottom line, if you are outside with washington try to get a sense of what all of this means, the economic of us on full display, but a lot of folks are preparing for a long haul season, primaries and caucuses, and that this day -- this could go well beyond super tuesday. that policy on

social security play in a general election? president trump is already typing of socialism on his twitter feed, surely. twitter feed. his he's actually flying planes above where i am with a flag that tells his -- touts his trump are public and ideology above this. republicans try to make their case even here at this third democratic presidential debate. that is such an astute question because there's only about 70,000 voters who previously obama.or ohio, wisconsin, pennsylvania, that is directly the road that democrats need in order to take back the presidency, and it is that debate they will be having, not just here at the democratic presidential debate, but in a general election matchup. shery: thank you so much. our chief washington correspondent running us from

-- joining us from washington. coverage starts at 7:30 a.m. hong kong time. plenty more still in the next hour on "daybreak asia," including these interviews next. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: good morning. i am paul allen in sydney. we are under one hour away from the market open in australia and japan. shery: i am shery ahn. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. welcome to "daybreak asia." paul: how top stories this friday, optimism returns on speculation of a trade truce. the u.s. may offer an interim agreement but president trump still wants an overall deal. mario draghi overcomes powerful critics. france, germany, and