tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg September 17, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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paul: welcome to "daybreak australia." counting down to asia's major market opens. paul: the top stories we are covering in the next hour -- the fed will step in to keep rates from rising above target. treasuries rally ahead of tomorrow's expected cut. businesses now await a decision from the bank of japan. officials think lowering the rate will not provoke backlash.
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shery: take a look at how markets are trading at the moment. we saw u.s. futures unchanged but the s&p 500 gaining .25% in this session. we had seen u.s. stocks drifting throughout the session. saw gains toward the end of the session. not to mention that energy stocks were the biggest losers at the end of the session. wti coming back under pressure again, down .7%, and below that $60 a barrel level. we had banks also underperforming the broader markets. we saw the 10-year yield pull lower toward 1.8%. this, of course, ahead of the fed rate decision, and the fed rate decision coming out a time when we are seeing some turmoil in money markets. take a look at this chart on the
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bloomberg showing you how the repo rate surged as much as 10% at one point. that took the red funds effective rate to 2.25% -- the fed funds effective rate to 2.25%. this coming at a time when we have seen wall street struggling to absorb that extra treasury debt coming on the market because of this increasing budget deficit here in the u.s., not to mention some seasonality as well as coupon settlements, but all of this really being absorbed into money markets. we are also expecting another on this tuesday and we're respecting another operation to come forth on the session as well. paul: thanks very much. let's bring in our next guest for his take on the fed's
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intervention. the executive vice chairman of the world largest alternative asset manager, blackstone group, joins us right here in sydney. i want to come straight back to waschart that shery showing. that overnight repo rate spiking, howling at the effective funds rate with it. we have the new york fed conducting an operation, another one to come, but is the repo market broken? how much of a concern is this? >> i don't think the repo market is broken at all. this kind of thing used to be common. i think it is important to remember the rate spike looks very scary, but it's only ofrnight, so the actual cost the system is not high. it's more of a concern to dealers. it's a technical problem, very short-term that the fed is addressing. i think the fed wants stability right now above all else, so i'm not surprised that they stepped
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in. paul: we can accept the fed got into this by purchasing $2.5 trillion with the treasuries in the wake of the global financial crisis. what is the plan for getting out again? getting out isr the big unanswered question. it is one thing to stop purchasing as they have done, but the winding down of that issue. is a whole nother my view is that will be with them a long time. shery: although you say this might not be something as huge or with worrying about, does the fed need to come out with a more permanent mechanism? we really do not have something to address liquidity shortages in the u.s. do you need to see a standing facility at some point? >> i don't think it is necessary. it may be beneficial, but i do not think it is necessary. our banking system is loaded with liquidity in general.
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there are periods of time measured in a matter of days when that liquidity is sometimes stressed and a lot of banks these days do not carry the inventories or have the liquid capital available that they once had precrisis, but i think the to solve thesels short-term problems, and i don't think they rippled through into the basic economy. shery: let's talk about the broader economy. we continue to see challenges coming from the trade front. we are now hearing from larry kudlow coming out that president trump and prime minister shinzo abe of japan will hold a on septemberting -- on december 5. how concerned are you about these trade tensions going on? we have seen perhaps a little bit of settlement with japan but not necessarily when it comes to tensions with china you -- with china.
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>> i do worry we are in a period .f deglobalization post-world war ii, we had 70 years of globalization, which was an economic engine for the whole world, particularly asia and to some degree, by extension, australia. i think that era is in danger of changing. it's not just trade, its tribalism, populism, and it's everywhere. you can see it in every country, so i do worry about that. i think the president's approach -- he has raised some good questions, but i think his approach of trying to go it alone and fight the war on all fronts is questionable, myself. however, i'm hopeful we will get some improvement in the trade arrangements with japan, with china. we have already gotten some with nafta. i'm hopeful that however awkward some of the process has been, we will come out in a better place. paul: in terms of china, has this gone beyond trade?
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it is starting to look like almost a cold war-type struggle of global supremacy. is that what you think? >> i would not want to be associated with the words cold war right now. i do think there is a strategic rivalry asset of our relationship, but i'm hopeful rivals as well as constructive trade partners. there's no two ways about the fact china is a strong economy. it will be growing. they are not going to stop that. they are not going to cut back ambitions or investment in technology. i think we can live with all to awithout it getting military threat. i think that a trade deal will help that, which is one of the reasons it is more important than simply its impact on the economy. is whenguess the reason will that happen? comments today from jeffrey dunlop saying he sees
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zero chance of a deal before the 2020 election. you were an optimist. where are you now? >> i'm still an optimist in a sense. my optimism has been tempered in terms of timing and a deal. i think it is in both economie'' interest to make a deal. i think both economies are under pressure. i think both are dealing with hardline sectors, however, that mean they cannot make too much in the way of concessions. i think there is a middle ground they will reach. i think you could see a lot of signs of thawing after china pulled back from the prior deal, so i'm optimistic we will get something. i just do not think it will be as ambitious as we once hoped for. shery: in the meantime, the fed has consistently pointed to global growth and trade uncertainties as one of the challenges it may be facing, and it is one justification for cutting rates. china'ss the fact that
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economy may be slowing down mean for chairman powell? >> i think it will encourage him to cut rates more for two reasons. first of all, china is a major engine of economic growth globally. the second-biggest, arguably the biggest economy in the world. second, it will also put pressure on the renminbi, so i think the fed needs to be mindful of the fact of the strength of the dollar and the impact of that on the u.s. economy, but china is not alone in slowing. india is slowing. europe is slowing. emerging markets all over are under pressure. not that it's the u.s. showing the greatest strength, but how long it can defy the rest of the world is the question. eventually, gravity will have its way, i think, and i think chairman powell is mindful of .hat
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shery: is it concerning to you that some parts of the world do not have the ammunition to go against trying to slow this economic decline we have seen? for example, europe or japan when it comes to central banks have done almost all they can do .t this point >> there's always more monetarily. the simple answer to your question is yes, it is of concern. using every economy is monetary tools to the limit of their capability before we have a severe recession, so how much gas is left in the tank? you could always make interest rates more negative. i personally think when interest rates get to near zero or negative, the effectiveness of monetary policy disappears. it has as many negative effects as positive effects. it is not like lowering treasury rates from 4% to 2%.
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it has countervailing negative forces, but it's not just monetary policy. if you look at debt to gdp in developed countries, it was 43% in 2001. 70 5% today. the fiscal tool has also already been heavily used in an expanding economy. i do worry about how much gas we have left to fight a real recession. paul: that is a complaint you hear from central bankers around the world, that it is time for governments to step up. i was intrigued by the comments of jay powell saying he cannot provide a set of rulebooks for global trade. did that sound like code to, -- code tois president trump, "you fix this?" quick ski did to me.
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i realize that monetary policy is not magic, but when you think about it, the u.s. is using fiscal spending, china is using fiscal spending, japan is using fiscal spending. those are the three largest economies in the world and many others are, too. it's not like the tool is going unused now. of an expansion, which is a funny time to see it being used. they: what do you make of president's comments that he wants to see interest rates in the u.s. lowered to zero or more? >> i think the biggest benefit any sitting president has who is up for reelection is a strong economy. if i were trumps the fire, -- if i were president trump, i would pull every lever i can to make sure the economy is strong come election day. paul: tony james is staying with , let's get tow
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first word news with ritika gupta. -- ritika: brent crude fell almost 7%, the prices steadied on claims the u.s. has identified locations in iran where the attack was launched. >> brothers and sisters, with the grace of god almighty and the abilities of saudi aramco and excellence, incredibly in work ethic and the excellence of its workers and productive work environment that was made possible by the government, in the last two days, it was containment of the damages and the recovery of more than 50% of production that was disrupted as a result of this terrorist attack. betweenthe trade spat japan and south korea is moveing -- ritika: the
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mirrors a similar action from tokyo meaning exports of some strategic products will receive greater scrutiny than shipments to other destinations. japan cut korea from its trusted white nations list and also plans to terminate the sharing of intelligence. exit polls in israel show the election is too close to call gavelenjamin netanyahu's on a snap vote failing. he had gone to the people in hopes of strengthening his control, but initial results show him connect with the former .ilitary chief full results are expected on thursday. spain is heading for a fourth election in as many years after acting prime minister pedro sanchez failed to muster support for government. voters will try again in november. spain has been increasingly ungovernable since the conservative people's party lost its majority for years ago amid
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a string of corruption scandals. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. late fedex plunged in trade after cutting its profit forecast for the fiscal year. we will see what has caused the change of tone. shery: up next, we continue our conversation with the blackstone executive chairman, tony james. including opportunities in australia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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blackstone group struck its biggest deal so far in australia back in june, agreeing to buy over $1 billion of offices in sydney. have been in you australia, have your investment decisions changed much over time? >> sure. we bought a bunch of retail. now we have the net sellers and have moved more into logistics as australia has become more and more of an internet shopping destination, i guess. office has been sporadic. as you point out, we did the big deal, but right now, we don't see a lot of opportunity in office. earlier on, we did some residential deals. then we had a bit of a hiatus on that. now we are looking into residential deals again. it evolves to where there are opportunities. away from the trends, and some of those are global.
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logistics is a big trend for us everywhere. we are always interested in buying a high-quality building that is under manage where we could fix it up and create a core asset that someone will put a very high-value one. we have an opportunistic element one should never forget. paul: the economy in australia is slowing. has that changed your decision-making process at all? >> not yet. it will not be the 29th consecutive year of growth, but i suspect it will. especially if as per our last conversation, we could fix the trade issue. i think i straley is a big beneficiary of that. no, it really has not changed our strategy much. real estate is a very site-specific, building-specific business. we have invested $11 billion in australian real estate.
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3 million square meters of space , so we are putting our money where our mouth is in this market. about 28r point unbroken years without a recession, how much longer can you see that continuing? you say potentially a 29th, particularly of a trade deal gets resolved, but how much longer can this run realistically go for, particularly when you have an economy so dependent on mining, real estate, and let's be honest, not a lot of dead after that. >> i think you have wonderful natural resources, lots of natural beauty, and an educated populace, and a growing population. i think you have a lot beyond that, honestly. i think a lot of the dislocation and mining i hope is behind us, more than ahead of us. i think you have had headwinds with trade tensions. you have had china slowing. i think a lot of those things get better, not worse. i'm an optimist.
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i don't see any reason just because there have been 28 years, there cannot be another four or five good years. shery: what is really interesting about the australian market is we continue to see these pension funds coming into the market trying to directly stakes over assets. i wonder, though, given that we are seeing these buyout firms sit on so much cash these days, is there competition out there for all these assets you want to acquire? is,hey sure -- there sure but i will say there's no difference in australia from any other market. this world is all of cash. financialback years, capital and gdp was 10 times. today it's 14 times. there's just a lot of cash flowing around the world. meanwhile, gdp is growing slower and is less capital-intensive. competitionnty of for good assets. our main focus, particularly in private equity, which is more the thrust of your question, is
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to buy companies that we can fix and intervene operationally and create our own value. we are not buying things because they are cheap and then selling them dear. that is not a way to create a large fund. shery: it is interesting you say that because given blackstone's ever present global dealmaking, it is hard to find a pattern when it comes to your acquisitions. global factors more than what you have mentioned? >> again, with real estate, i talked about some of our global themes, logistics and whatnot, urbanization, gateway cities, do in private equity, we have some themes. we have pivoted to growth a lot more. complexity,high very large deals where the competition is very limited. we focus on deals where there is a lot of operating intervention. essentially 100% of the profit we make in private equity is due
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to the value we create by going into those companies and products,g in new marketing, new markets, consolidation, putting capital to thesenagement in companies that have been a little bit starved of both of those things that help them grow faster and becoming more globally competitive. those things can happen in any industry, and it's just kind of a question of value. i would say that we are very value-oriented investors, so wherever we see value we will go. that is often the opposite of where public markets go and that is one of the strengths of our business, the ability to be a buyer when public markets are in retreat and people are selling whatever they can sell. paul: i want to quickly get you through some financials in australia. own -- are you seeing an
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opportunity among non-bank lenders? >> i think it is huge. that's a theme we are seeing all over the world, particularly in india were the banking systems pullback even much further than australia, but i would have to say the royal commissions, when you see them, they create problems for some constituencies but opportunities for others. we try to look at that as the opportunities and we have done a lot in financials down under. that has been a very productive theme. i thing we have more than doubled the growth of the company. thank you so much for joining us in sydney. plenty more to come on "daybreak australia." stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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it's products have been pulled from online shows in china. nicotineted selling vaporizers on alibaba but says they have already disappeared from the site without exploit -- explanation. paul: fedex slumped in late trade after cutting its profit forecast for 2020 the face of a trade war. ceo fred smith says fedex continues to be badly affected by the trade tensions and general uncertainty about policy. shery: toyota has been waiting for the u.s. and japan to finalize the reported trade deal. it is investing almost 400 million dollars at its texas truck plant six months after separate plans to inject $3 billion into u.s. operations by 2021. the moves are seen as efforts to
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shery: some of our earlier guest telling us what they expect from the fed. another issue has pushed its way to the fore ahead of wednesday's decision. money markets have been ravaged by funding shortages, causing short-term lending rates to store and or sing policymakers to step in for the first time in a decade. the new york fed injected $3 billion into markets and said it would conduct another 75 billion dollar repo operation on wednesday. we were thinking that perhaps this would lead the fed to react, perhaps a tweak in the could notreally, they wait. >> know, there was no doubt. the new york fed had been talking to the dealers on the street since the repo market opened monday morning and were flagging this, so they knew it would be a bit of an issue.
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once we saw the fed come out even today and say we are doing another operation wednesday morning, you saw a rates start to soften ahead of the opening tomorrow morning. we were hearing about 4% before they came out and announced it. after that, we are looking at about 3% on the open for tomorrow, so we will be keeping an eye on that. a lot of people are saying the fed was already behind the curve by waiting this long to come in with an operation and because at this point, you tend to see funding markets pullback and things start to normalize a bit, so no one knows if this is just a market doing what the market does and normalizing, or if it is the fed actually having a hand. it's hard to tell because there are so many variables. york you mentioned the new fed is going to conduct another repo operation tomorrow, but is there going to be another one and another one after that? his ongoing intervention sustainable in terms of a long-term solution? >> at this point, people are
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just calling it a band-aid. they know they need something else or they need to be innovative with how they think about this. standing repo facility is something the fed has been discussing on and off for the past year, and everybody is waiting for more of a reaction or more information because i think there's still so many philosophical issues with it that the fed has not made a decision on a facility one way or the other. it is i think in the meantime going to be these repo operations as sort of a stopgap. at the end of the day, there's bigger issues here. you know, there's structural issues to the funding markets. regulation for the crisis has created very big challenges, and things need to go back and be re-examined and fixed for the longer run for the health of the market, but the other thing about tomorrow is i think and i oer tweak takes precedence because this was not on the table a week ago.
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be watchingll closely what happens. let's turn to someone who wants to see a smooth operation of the funding market. tracy chen's portfolio manager and head of structured critic at brandywine global, which has $72 billion in assets under management. great to have you with us. alex was just telling us that some people are saying the fed is already behind the curve, that there are structural issues here. do we need to see a more permanent solution more than just injections of cash? >> yes, i do agree with that. i think the fed is behind the curve. mentioned thisll is like autopilot, the normalization of the balance sheet. i think it is more complex than people think. now, the fed is definitely behind the curve. what we have foreseen is not just a band-aid approach. i think it's time to start thinking about established
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standing facility or even start qe again. shery: we have seen funding pressure in repo rates. where else are we seeing this? >> we have seen them reject much or twoto 10%, one day days ago. the rate just went down, but i a think it is actually symptom of the reserve draining because there's not enough reserve and then treasury has been cheapening because of the large amount of deficit and the huge amount of supply. i think if the fed starts qe again to buy treasury again and starteasury yields reaching as a result, you can find some of the phenomenon that has been related like the negative swap spread and this negative cross currency spread,
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so they are all interrelated. paul: the ripples of this are beginning to spread and be felt elsewhere. what are the most terrible consequences you can think of? consequenceterrible i would think would be some players have to decrease their holdings on fixed income assets because they are borrowing from .he fed i think that will force further market selloff, but at this point, we have not seen a seller yet. paul: we heard alex mention a moment ago that perhaps a tweak from the fed this week will overshadow the main policy decision. will you be watching that more closely now? x yes. people are not just waiting for 25 basis points of the rate cut. more important is what the fed
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is going to do with the balance sheet. are they going to purchase more treasury bonds? shery: let's talk about this low rate environment we are seeing. sources say there will be more than $11 billion of asset-backed securities being pitched to investors this month. , orhis a seasonality issue yield-seeking behavior we continue to see? >> i think it is both. aually in september, there is temporary rate cut because the recovery from the slow summer, but at the same time, you see in this negative field environment that there are about 14 trillion .onds investors are seeking yield. at the same time, they want to meet strong investor demand.
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overall, year-to-date, if you look at markets, new issuance volume is pretty much on par with last year from the same time period. for example, there are four major sectors. most new issue volume is slightly lower. it is mostly on par with last actually we see slowdown in credit card issuance . they: where do you see attractive sectors, especially in this part of the credit cycle? the creditpart of cycle, we think it is pretty
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late. we do think the consumer balance sheet is relatively healthier than corporate balance sheet, so to consumer or mortgage credit market and i think the fundamentals for the housing market is still solid. if you look at the general economic environment, the global slowdown is still continuing and the geopolitical risk just rising. as a result, you can also see the valuation is not cheap at all. if you look across the bond market, they have record issuance in september, so we do see value in the consumer and mortgage market. especially as an investor, we look at new issue market and also the secondary market. value,significant especially the seasoned vintage because they have enough cushion about price depreciation, and
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those have to be levered down. the newer issuance i do think that negative capacity because those bonds are new issued, so you don't have a lot of negative capacity. agency markets, you can avoid default risk. we like the higher-yielding, but i think three negative factors work against the market. the first is liquidity risk. the second is approaching rates in nature. also you have the corporate fundamentals which we are still concerned about. paul: thanks very much for
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joining us. let's get a check on first word news now with ritika gupta. back ontrade talks get track wednesday with working level officials had -- heading from beijing to washington. the u.s. side has discussed and limited agreement. larry kudlow says there is a certain optimism on the wind. the two sides last met in shanghai in july. >> this is like two parents fighting and the children are, like, hiding, and they are upset. that's the rest of the world. it is slowing trade, but long-term, a potential decoupling of these two giant countries actually results in lower growth for everyone. ka: the world bank says global growth will decline more
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than estimated with the pile of negative yielding debt indicating expansion will be slower in the coming months. the bank president says the slowdown is broad-based and expansion this year will fall short of its projection of 2.6%. willem marx case threatens to undermine boris johnson -- a landmark case threatens to undermine boris johnson. lawyers watching say it is hard to predict how things will turn out. johnson's legal team did promise to reveal what he would do if he were to lose the case. employing cloud seeding in an attempt to clear thick haze over kuala lumpur and the surrounding regions.
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six indonesian provinces have declared a state of emergency. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. coming up next, fedex faces a battle on two fronts -- pressure from amazon and a slowdown in the trade war. we will have highlights from the earnings call just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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real slash and burn. cutting the outlook the way they did, we are seeing shares plunge after hours. they have a raised entire year-to-date gains, so that is a pretty significant move. what is also important is that they are citing, as you said, the trade war for not only their earnings lows, but a potential global slowdown. let's go right to the statement that was from the ceo. "our performance continues to be negatively impacted by weakening global macro environment trade tensions and increasing uncertainty. year-to-date, you can see the stock has been on a bit of a ride. it will likely be on a very big ride when opening on wall street. they protected back in june we might expect a decline of a
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mid-single digit percentage. this is much, much bigger. what is also interesting is sales little changed at $17 billion. they cited specifically the declining exports from china, scrutinyare also under . they also were investigated for other issues, so be pressures on fedex have really been significant, not to mention the pressure from amazon. paul: how does this affect fedex 's plans? su: it is going to make it challenging because they have announced cost-cutting. they say they will be cutting costs pretty much across the board, but at the same time, they are very much under
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pressure not only to compete with amazon, but they are walking away from the business they have been doing with amazon, which is about 1.3% of their annual revenue. they are betting their decision not to renew their contracts with the e-commerce giant will allow them to boost profit businessecause that affects below average cost, but they are forced to ramp up their aircraft and delivery service to do that. they are still going ahead in january with their move to a seven day a week delivery service. that is really going to put some pressure on the company in terms of how they will cost cut while expanding. thanks very much for joining us on the fedex story. still to come, investing in .istressed debt find out where howard marks sees opportunity in our exclusive interview just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: you're watching "daybreak australia." howard marks says opportunity in distressed that are almost nonexistent in the u.s. today. he says he is now looking at china. come andportunities go. the opportunities to make money by buying distressed debt are not constant. in fact, they are the least constant thing i know about. we have a 31-year record. the result is pretty good on average. vast majorityhe of our money in the funds over five years and at the other times, the opportunities received. risky.ing is if you cannot figure out what you're doing, you pay too much.
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the other thing is when there is , you can getnd great bargains and if you succumb and participate and pay too much, it is risky. to see anothert --0-it -- 2008-opportunity 2008-type opportunity in the next couple of years? >> i don't think we are in a bubble. i don't think we are going into a bubble comparable to 2008, so there's no reason to believe we will have the panic we had in the fourth quarter of 2008 following the closing of lehman brothers, but, you know, there has been a great deal of debt issued. there has been a battle to be the person who buys that debt. the battle has taken the form of pinning down the quality and the safety, so there's a lot of risky, aggressive debt that has
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been issued in the last five-plus years. , i think collides there will be great opportunities. >> but not necessarily? >> the quantitative aspect of the amount of week debt and then there is the qualitative aspect of the amount of panic. there's no reason why we should have that degree of panic again. people were talking about the end of the financial world. 11 years ago. i don't see a reason to talk about that today. >> right now, there is a record amount of dry powder or cash committed to some of these mandates. i wondered where you are seeing opportunities, even though everything has been bid up to this point. >> investing in distressed debt is a struggle today. .he economy is too good
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capital markets are too generous . it is hard for a company to get into trouble. if they get into trouble, capital markets are happy to bail them out. , and itstruggle today would be misleading to your viewers to talk about where there are opportunities. they are practically nonexistent. >> does that mean you are not investing? >> largely yes. it's very hard to put money to work in distressed debt. >> would you rather than put your money in cash? form funds. people commit amounts of money to the funds, and we call it as we spend it. right now, we are not calling very much. >> what about china? you talked about how there are opportunities there. is that still the case? >> yes, i would say china is one of the exceptions. on excess capital investment facilitated by
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aggressive lending from the banks and also nonbanks. have big piles of 's, of nonperforming loans that will not pay, and i think they want to recirculate that capital by getting those off the books, and we are very interested in being part of that process. that was oaktree capital's howard marks on "bloomberg money undercover," a show that puts the spotlight on the world of alternative investments. paul: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. sony rebuffing a series of proposals.
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shery: [indiscernible] line. messaging provider speaking exclusively to bloomberg, co-ceo said it may include foreign stocks on the service as a way of helping people take a first step into global trading. situationrent market could be a good learning opportunity. people can start with small investments at as they go along, they become more alert to geopolitics and the current market environment. our service is the perfect opportunity to educate people with relatively low finance literacy. : the issues are piling up for wework. hours after delaying a share sale, the company announced a small amount of job cuts in new york city. we told the cuts evolve fewer than 10 staff. the cuts come at a difficult
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time for weworkers parent postponed an ipo after criticism about the company's financial discipline and corporate governance. ahead inenty more "daybreak asia." that is ahead of our special fed coverage, which starts at 2:00 p.m. wednesday. you can watch here in new york. paul: that is almost it for "daybreak australia" this morning. we do have trading in new zealand under way not a lot happening. the index looking pretty flat right now. about .1%gher by after we saw some modest gains on u.s. equities markets. the kiwi dollar not much changed. similar story for the aussie. stay with us. there's plenty more to come at the moment on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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