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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  September 18, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT

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blaming the rotation on yields backing up. we do believe that yields are going to continue to rise from here, we can go back to the positioning -- >> we have the closing bell. what a recovery we have made over the last hour. though the market is not quite so worried about what can be deemed as a hawkish cut. the russellown -- 2000 down from right opened today. volume as well lower than what you might have expected given how may news events are taking place. >> we should point out other metrics. you're also seeing the haven assets get a bit of a selloff as
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well. an interesting reaction to what we got out of the fed today. for more analysis, lindstedt deeper with abigail. >> everyone is paying attention to the possible liquidity crunch. going skyhigh. not so much over the last today. let's look at this rate coming back down as the fed did one yesterday then again today injecting liquidity into the system. yesterday and analysts said there was not a liquidity crunch or anything to be worried about. these are the puts on the s&p 500. you can to the bearish interest spiking skyhigh in october then again in december. this year pretty low as we have had stocks going higher. in august you see that it was high but more recently, look at this actually coming down as the overnight lending rates were going higher telling you that the bearish options investors are not that bearish. >> i wanted to take a look at
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dollars dynamics and the strengthening in the dollar that we saw in that announcement particularly because the fed might be more hawkish than originally appeared. five other officials, wanted cuts today but no more through the end of the year. you are getting some dollar strength here and potentially no more rate cuts through 2019. i wanted to full that into the equity market dynamic here. the small-cap stocks do better when there is dollar strength. they were lower by 1.2% relative to the s&p. the small-cap stocks are trading more on the terrace the may are on dollar dynamics. don't have the size and scope to pass on to the consumers. in my mind small-cap stocks
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underperforming caught my attention. i couldn't let the day go by without checking in on crude oil. there was such a ride this week so far. crude oil is extending the decline from tuesday. this time around, it is on a quick return of saudi arabia's crude production. that's where the attention has shifted. the kingdoms damaged facilities operating at 40% of the pre-attack levels. the attack happened over the weekend. the facilities should retain or return the 4.9 million barrels by the end of the month. earlier i eased some after their the defense ministry said the attacks were unquestionably sponsored by iran and did not originate from yemen. meanwhile, an industry report says the oil market remains well supplied with ample stockpiles.
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thank you to everyone. it still with us is our wells fargo asset management president and our very own sarah. that came up during the fed press conference. chairman powell was asked about the u.s. economy and whether or not the data we're getting would be enough to push the fed to cut rates or to pause. he also have a question about the differential between what is going on in the u.s. and overseas. we got good housing data out of the u.s. this morning. had he reconcile that? >> you have to look at the global economy. sector is being hurt by the strike. housing starts are extremely strong. you have the dichotomy where on the one hand, the consumer seems to be doing well but to my earlier, you see some cracks. powellht chairman
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ballasted that very well. also indicated it has to look at the global economy. clearly, that is slowing down. there is no question that will have an impact on the u.s.. chair powell was speaking, you are pointing to the reports and comments from analysts and economists. was there any consensus or was it very? >> it was a different tone before and after the press conference. there didn't seem to be a sense of unity. before the press conference, everyone was talking about the hawkish rate cut. as you just mentioned, jay powell was able to balance it during the press conference. he said if the economy weakens more than we are prepared to agree -- be aggressive. at one point you look at it of 17 are seven out
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saying no more cuts this year. however, jay powell is saying at the same time as we said in the past they will act appropriate to sustain the expansion if we can further they will step in. >> i am interested in the corporate news we have coming out. a $40oft announced billion share buyback. some companies are able to repatriate the cash to their investor base. from $.51their shares to $.46. percent up on tencent after hours. i am interested from your perspective big international companies such as microsoft, how winds arehe -- of the coming from the u.s. dollar? it is spiking high today. do you expect the dollar to remain in favor as the rest of
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the world starts to slow down? >> i have said all year it's hard for me to come up with an argument that the dollar will weaken. it continues to be strong. if you look at the interest-rate differentials is when the u.s. and the rest of the world, it is hard to argue that the dollar will slow down. what's interesting is that the trade wars in my mind are contribute into the stronger ironically. the administration would like the dollar to weaken. the problem is, the more the rhetoric and the worry about trade wars the stronger the dollar. we will see what gets there. >> the dollar is up one quarter of a percent. looking at other assets, particularly gold and of the a down we saw gold had day today. how did that factor into the trading mindset? >> we have been seeing safe haven assets pull back a little bit. you have seen that in the treasury sending years -- yields
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higher and also in the commodity market. when you think about safe haven assets like old and silver, there was felt to be a little bit more risk feeling in the market. i was listening into a webcast yesterday and he was saying he thinks that yields will be moving higher from here is because we saw the copper to gold ratio turn as well. to some i would say if you are trading, people are taking this as a signal to say maybe -- >> it looks as though the new york that are reserved will conduct an operation again tomorrow for a third straight day. it has done well in terms of common the stresses within the money markets. relieving the funding pressures there but it is notable that's one of the key takeaways from the fed the -- is that they will also step in and look to cut a key rate.
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>> why didn't we hear more from jay powell about this? it seemed odd that they had this meeting. this was all going on and the way jay powell characterized it is that they barely talked about it. he did not offer a permanent solution yet they are doing this for a third day? >> they are watching and learning more. click he said they will discuss it in the inter-meeting. you really have to look into the what toolsfigure out you have it your disposal and what's the right way to go about this. they say they are going to be talking about this within the next few days. >> they don't want to come out with a permanent solution market canvassing the and checking to see if other proposals might be out there. uproar with the overnight with the overnight with market, have you seen any spillover into equities into what you do? >> not so far. what is interesting is money market yields were up substantially.
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short-term government funds were something like 3.5 overnight. regular money markets were at 3%. it is interesting to see if people will continue to want to stay in the short end of hold cash at higher yields. so far, the equity markets seem to be complacent and remember we are not that far away. the s&p is close to 3000. the high was 3027 in the summer. steady as she goes. thank you to our guests. some headlines hear from apple. the vp of communications will leave the company. this is something that had been flagged as possible. he was the head of apple's communications for the last five years. x yes this is a changing of the guard. coming under stress when
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after 16to trade but years of the business he is going to be stepping in. he says he is taking time away from apple to spend some time with his family. up next we will have analysis of the divisions inside the federal reserve. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> we are live from new york. i'm caroline hyde.
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it is a snapshot on how u.s. stocks close today. staging quite a comeback. >> the question is would you miss? >> the fed cuts again. president trump ways in saying the central bank has no guts no sense no vision. focus, --ney market saudi arabia blames the wrong again saying attacks on the oilfield were unquestionably sponsored by tehran. >> breaking news here on at the, their shares are moving around after hours. it is said they would do a private placement of convertible notes due in 20 36. you can see the shares down 1.6%. they were down as much as 4%.
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>> let's talk about the fed hawkish view. lowering the benchmark rate for a second time this year. policymakers remain split over the need for more easing. >> we are not on a preset course . we will make decisions meeting by meeting and we will try to be as transparent as we can. if the economy -- economy does turn down, a more extensive sequence of rate cuts could be appropriate. it's not will we expect but we would certainly follow that path if it became appropriate. i don't think we would look at using negative rates. i don't think that will be at the top of our list. if we experience another set of pressures, we have the tools to address those. to use not hesitate them. it is certainly possible we will need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet earlier than we thought. always been a
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possibility and it certainly is now. there will come a time when we have done enough but there may also, time when the economy worsens and we would have to cut more aggressively. if we don't know we will watch things carefully. >> for more let's bring in our guest. we saw today, we had two cents in both directions the first time we have seen the since 2013. from a signaling perspective, how important is it that we don't have consensus right now in terms of the direction of rates at the fed? >> it is important for a couple of reasons. the fed it likes to be driven by consensus and we don't have that. if you look at the dots, there is a huge number of people on that committee who didn't want to cut today and don't want to cut.
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they misinform as well as they inform. i think it does show the wide range of views about how much is needed. you have the people think the economy is just fine i know there are risks that spending is strong. it's 70% of the u.s. economy let's wait to cut rates until something goes wrong. then there's the other part which is there are lots of risks everywhere trade uncertainty is weighing on the manufacturing investments negative. let's be preemptive and that really does seem like a pretty strong ideological break. >> there do seem to be fundamentally different views at the fed. have theman powell unified view of the fed behind him? that he should take a more dovish tilde his press conference while they take a more hawkish tell -- tilt? do understand the rationale of taking it meeting by meeting.
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when there is so much headline driven risk out there between canit and trade and change very quickly as we just saw even just a couple of weeks ago when there were room rumors about an interim deal with china, i do think you have to take it meeting by meeting and figure out where the risk is because everything changes so fast. you just don't know. ahead, risksr catching them off guard. that is almost what happened to them last december. they locked in so early to a rate hike when they probably should not have. then we found ourselves on doing it six or seven months later. >> do you view the fed or does the market view them as being in control of rates? with what happened on monday and tuesday in the repo market and what we are seeing in the short-term rates, the flattening of the yield curve today, what is going on? >> that is a very loaded question. >> that's why i ask it. [laughter] i could speak to this as well
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quite expertly. i think the market is preceding them -- do they have tools maybe to bring it back in? i think that's what they tried to show today by lowering the interest on excess reserve rates by 30 basis points instead of the standard 25. i think that's why jay powell expressed he has more flexibility on the balance sheet and they can look to start regrowing that. i think that's where they talked about reserves and how that has impacted it here. i think they are showing more flexibility. maybe it is about a scarcity of reserves. >> let's get your expertise. >> clearly a are told to keep things under control. powell was trying to explain the difference of setting the target rate -- target rate. then what they see as a very tohnical dialing of knobs try to have short-term market rates right where they set the
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target. they conceptually put them apart. i don't think markets are quite so precise and separating them in their minds. by adjustment on the rate five basis points relative to the target range, that's moving in the direction but it's very technical. we had repo rates trading at 10 at a time. the idea that five basis points is meaningful misses the point. this is why they're doing these operations offering the market $75 billion. those are being oversubscribed today. >> quickly on the balance sheet, are we ever going back to a point of retraction of the balance sheet? there seems to be a sense that the contraction was almost a mistake. >> we are not going back to a contraction. point where they were shrinking total assets and it's been stable for a little while and a plan was to let within the liabilities bank reserves continue to contract until you get to the right level. what's the right level? no one knows.
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the contraction again i think is clearly off the table. initial contraction a mistake? maybe maybe not. my thesis is held that it's necessary. the reason to do it is to demonstrate to people but it was never necessary. >> thank you, seth. , alix. he you guys took some pretty loaded questions. coming up, president trump calling for tougher sanctions as mike pompeo builds a case against tehran. ongoingdiscuss the tensions in the middle east. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> let's turn to saudi arabia. we spoke with the saudi finance minister and asked to the recent attacks have an impact on aramco numbers? >> we are back online. in terms of the economy and we use our reserves only for a couple of days before we are back online last night and today. >> meanwhile president trump says he wants tougher u.s. sanctions on iran. sanctions can we have? be much will it runs economy brought to its knees? >> it is hard to have a greater impact than what we have seen. the u.s. sanctions have severely limited iran's ability to sell oil on a legal market.
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on there companies tehran stock exchange can target. there are sections of the construction sector. there are additional sanctions you can put on iran's central bank that would make it very hard for them to even get humanitarian aid. this is an oil economy. i think about 80% of the economy depends on some level on oil. those sanctions are already there. certainly you can tighten the screws but this is going to be more of an impact on the margins at this point. x are you hearing any sort of talk about potential military action now that you have saudi arabia coming out and blaming the attacks on iran? and you have mike pompeo in the middle east now making the case for why iran is responsible for this? >> secretary pompeo arrived a few hours ago. he made an interesting comment on the tarmac. he basically said that he is
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there to help start building a coalition that would begin planning a response to iran. i read that as a very cautious approach. i don't think that signals any kind of imminent military strike. president trump earlier said there was 20 of time to have some sort of a stronger response but he also raised the specter of the u.s. war in iraq. he said we went into iraq and how to that would work out for us? he was long and opponent of that conflict. some of his thinking, this is a campaign based on getting the u.s. out of the least complex -- conflicts. one of the things he wants to avoid is sending more troops off to a war. >> what are we expecting in terms of response from iran? we will see what comes out of mike pompeo stocks in saudi arabia. he goes to the uae tomorrow.
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iran has -- the issue here has been if you publicly declare that the strikes came from iran, you have to be prepared to do something to follow up on it. that they can respond to any attack with additional attacks. >> quickly the new national security advisor, is he going to provide any sort of difference with regard to a u.s. policy toward the middle east? >> he is seen as close to mike pompeo. mike pompeo basically stands alone as the dominant figure on trump's policy. i think pompeo and trump will be determining the response. >> always good to get your insight. more of our exclusive interview with the ceo of ibm. why she thinks watching is all about trust. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> on mark crumpton the first word news. mike pompeo is in saudi arabia where he is scheduled to meet with the ground rights. his visit comes as the united states blames iran for a weekend drone attack on the heart of the saudi oil industry. saudi arabia said the attack was unquestionably sponsored by iran. iran denies being involved and has threatened that it will retaliate immediately if tehran is targeted in response. the house oversight committee chairman and civil rights and civil liberties chairman have written a letter to mark esper
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wanting answers about $184,000 in military spending that lawmakers estimate was used at presidentxpense at trump's resort in scotland. the lawmakers are demanding that all invoices, contracts agreements and internal and external communications be produced by september 27. they warn of consequences if the documents are not turnover. the british government was back in the supreme court today arguing that boris johnson's to suspend parliament just before they were set to leave the eu was neither improper nor illegal. demonstrators on both sides were on the streets on the second day of the legal showdown. boris johnson sent lawmakers home on september 9 until october 14 which is barely two weeks before the october 31 brexit deadline.
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>> what's clearly coming to candor onhe lack of the part of the british government. the u.k. government claims the shutdown was routine and not related to brexit. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> earlier today, ibm announced it will open its first commutations center to expand its fleet of quantum computers and further realize the business is potential. the real world applications for
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quantum and blockchain were something we explored with ibm's ceo. the ceo explains how this will good to the future of the company. the future of in technologies, we are all about applying them to business. we build a some of the business -- businesses world leading technologies. yes clout and ai, everyone talks about that. much more can still be done there. we will park this for a minute. the next two, blockchain and quantum. case with new technologies, people overestimate them at the beginning been underestimated them in the long term. if you said what is one word you would associate with launching i would say trust. you even haveit to use the right kind of blockchain which is not the case today. what blockchain should do, it
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will put trust between parties who don't know each other so you make trusted transactions and it would do with the internet did for communications between parties. onreat example if i can trust in blockchain, it allows you to, you and i can share a transaction together. i don't have to see anything you do want me to see. once the transaction is completed, it cannot be erased. think of a ledger. why do we each keep our own checking accounts? we trust what the bank says? in the right now we do but in the past we did not. is the same idea with blockchain. it's what it's doing. a big application right now is food safety. get somef 10 people form of illness from food safety. that's a pretty big problem it
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costs a lot of money you have seen it when there recalls. we started something called food trust. think about this on walmart or other competitors. these are all willing to join on. driscoll.ilever, they are saying we will all our data on here about what row in the form this came from. so when there is an issue and we have done millions of transactions already through this, i can point where the bad spinach is versus calling it all back. one third of the food in this world is wasted. to me that is one. if i jump over to quantum, think about the word trust. thatum will solve problems today traditional computers no matter how fast they are cannot solve. it is because traditional
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are zero and one. quantum bits have infinite states. they are for the kinds of problems that even today if you have the best supercomputer, you could never model it would run forever. i am exaggerating a little bit. let's take labs in biology. it is an approximation. they can't get an exact simulation done. thinkuantum will do is like the very first things will be drug discovery, material sciences, risk management, logistics. watch a truly model molecule of caffeine, you would need a computer attempt size of this planet. if you want to the actual simulation. our quantum systems, we have made commercial ones available through a cloud. they operate older than outer
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space. things like you have daimler working on new batteries in cars. jpmorgan is working on things like how to price different options. have to look at risks for late. drug discovery. we have a huge network of clients because now is the time to start to get used to it. now you say the word trust. there is a dark side. breaks, quantum can traditional encryption. we announced a new system last night that they are to prepare for quantum already. to secureur security what is inside our systems that run all this mission-critical systems are quantum safe. buildingeen equally something called s cryptography that quantum cannot break. this goes back to responsible
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searches. if i'm going to build a tool that is that powerful, i/o it to society to make sure i also address the downside. we put as much effort into that into creating something that prevents that thing from being so powerful. both sides. >> that was out of my exclusive interview with the chair of ibm. tune in more this week for more of our exclusive conversation. ibm keeps people in front of tech. you can see the entire conversation online. cisco was trying to do it again. remember in 2017, they bought a company just before it went public. we have learned they have approached another company in recent weeks. the pricing is likely to press the ipo today and trade later this week. notably it was rebuffed because they want to continue along the public mark route.
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that's u.s. steel shares are down 5.5%. analysts were expecting a loss of six cents. the companies making a lot of good commentary. the press release says deteriorating conditions for steel prices and in europe and in the oil market for which it sells tubular steel. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ kellyinessweek's jason spoke to a ceo for the latest edition of is asleep. i talked about the volatile landscape of the middle east and the ongoing trade war. not in a material way.
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we are seeing some affects particularly in asia. around ouro be more big corporate customers. automotive, manufacturing that are not seeing the same type of demand so they are pulling back some of their spend and travel patterns. asia for us is one of the smaller regions of in our total revenue pie. we are watching it carefully but we are not seeing a major decline. on a week like this where you would see another geopolitical issue in the middle east, disruption in the oil market, how does it play through in terms of your fuel costs and hedging strategies? any elements that are popping up there? >> it is a reminder of how volatile the business climate and the environment in which we operate. we are already seeing fuel prices start to moderate despite the spike over the weekend.
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we have built our business to be sustainable at higher you'll prices. we are on the front end of that. what we might face in terms of future challenges. lng a revenue durability or perspective we think we are well situated. >> let's talk about your investors. applauseone a lot of from your customers and some investors are very much on board. the stock has done very well by some measures. by other measures it deals stagnant. what is the street missing? >> it is a prove it story. our largest investor, warren buffett owns 11% in delta. i think he has a great line about our industry. we are the chicago cubs of the business world. we had a bad century. we are on a different platform now.
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over the last 10 years we have invested in fundamentals of running a great airline with friability -- liability, performance that is not been seen in delta's history. that has been rewarded by our customers with customer service action scores and brand loyalty and preference at levels we have never seen before. we are taking their back and continuing to reinvest in our customers airports and technologies while at the same time generating free cash flow. it's another thing the investors have not historically seen from the airlines. while they may have performed they also spent back what they made on the labor and technology and capital. we are doing that but we are also returning a meaningful amount so this year, we expect to make over $5 billion. for the fifth year in a row. we will also have free cash flow delivery of over $4 billion.
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that performance and consistency of performance over time is rewarding. i do think that investors will stay with us and see improvements. >> there has been a diversion across the global airline industry. one of theke you are haves. there may be some have-nots out there. are we going to see more consolidation and will you participate? >> i don't think you will see consolidation in a meaningful way. in the u.s., you may see it in other parts of the airline market. not necessarily participating relative to delta. internationally i think you will see it. in europe, you are already seeing it. you are seeing bankruptcies in terms of some of the european carriers. on the global scene, that is where we have been investing. influenceto have within our global network of carriers. that fromee more of delta potentially but i don't think on the u.s. side you will
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see it. >> what do those partnerships look like now and what will they look like in the future either geographically or are there new and different things that you can try to create a family? >> one of the things i think that has not been successful are the alliances. i am critical of the sky team alliance. i think we have brought a lot of great value to our customers but not to our member airlines. we're going at this in a different approach. we're going at it through delta making bilateral investments partners. we 08 -- own a large portion of the two closest airlines to us on either side of the country. you see thisnce network of influence that we are having within us companies. those companies want to know what delta has learned about
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operational efficiency and prowess and -- we want to learn what it takes to win very at. while we cannot own them in terms of wholly-owned consolidation, we can have meaningful in the investment that we create an international network of carriers that will be uniquely tied were you have delta as the centerpiece. that is our goal. when you think about the long-term, we serve 200 million customers per year. if you've added the customers from all of those carriers, you're up to over 500 million customers per year that we serve. there has never been an airline network or combination. valuelivers that kind of across geographies. we have an opportunity to create that. >> you have people knocking on your door saying come sprinkle the magic dust? >> there are a lot of questions going on and conversations at all times. of delta with ceo
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our own jason kelly. the was just told you are top technical analyst in both europe and asia. congratulations. we are very happy to have you here. let's take a look at your tenure yield chart. the -- we are bullishis bonds. we still are. we have been talking about that. the move here the pessimism the summer has brought 10-year gilts up to 1.9%. the last three days, the yields
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of come down a little bit correcting a bit. it is fair to just stay bullish and by the dip in the bond market. you can see the trendline connecting higher yield peaks coming down here into the 2% coming back through some of the prior pivots. as long as yields are down here below 2%, it's fair to say there is still a real yes go tenure treasuries seeing and all-time low. think we could go significantly lower. >> the all-time closing low as 1.38. >> you are a buyer of bonds. let's put that together with the yield curve. >> peak optimism, peaked pessimism. we saw two and butter. happened thanthat the following month it on inverted was back here in 1998.
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abigail, what we are looking for to seek some sort of optimism come out of this month and what i hope my come from the fed today is for some steepening. we have not seen that yet. the month is not over yet. ends positive or on inverted, it could be a reason for this last gas risk on sentiment to resist. >> -- persist. >> how long would you expect that to persist? there is a lot of technical cycles at play here. the presidential cycle has been well featured. the holiday cycle the potential for a santa claus rally. there are reasons cycle wise to see some risk on. the next event, the fed is over, october trade talks if they happen how good they go. we have to get through that. spread is always a must watch. finally, the chart i love. this is a powerful message even
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of the timing is difficult. >> the bigger picture stepping back to a long-term ratio of bond prices versus the russell 2000 what you can see going back to 1994 is a great trend line connecting economic cycle peaks. these ratio drops with the cycle and risk is peaking twice, three times with the global financial crisis. then over here, the start of trade wars read this ratio is raking up through declining trendline resistance. it has now made a new trailing high. the threat here is the bond arises outperform the russell 2000 which would be bullish bonds, lower treasury yields and a risk for the markets. >> it is certainly a risk but look at how quickly it has happened. they say you take the stairs up and the elevator down and stocks. this chart was certainly support that. if you so much for joining us
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for options insight. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> now to asia. he banks in the region are set to release policy decisions just hours after the fed here in the u.s. cut rates. let's bring in shery ahn. saidw the fed did what it or what everyone thought it would do. generally it is expected that they are not going to do anything is that right? have massive quantitative easing policy going on right now in japan. they aretation is that not going to do anything. it will stay the same. extremely low short and long-term rates. not a lot expected on that front.
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however, we have seen global bond yields plummet. the same thing has happened with the tenure yield. that has fallen to as low as -0.3%. the yield curve control mechanism is in danger. where could we see them headed with this as they tried to keep 10-year gilts anchored at that two percentage point trading back from zero? we will continue to watch. in the meantime, financial market been more stable as the chart shows. after the start of -- yield curve control where we sought volatility spike. that has come down a little bit. at the japanese yen is still week about 108 or dollar. perhaps they are not in such a desperate state to do something when there could be a congested -- repercussions in the financial system. it there is not much they have for future
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stresses in the economy. >> as we have a tax hike coming up in two weeks october 1. that is huge because the last time we saw that increase was back in 2014. it had huge repercussions to the japanese economy. this gtb chart is showing you how the japanese businesses feel about the state of the economy. it's not great. [laughter] >> for more on sherry's great charts, don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia. isnwhile tomorrow, there another central bank to keep an eye on. at the bank of england announcing its rate decision tomorrow. >> u.s. existing home sales for august coming out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time and don't forget jobless claims also at 8:30 a.m. eastern. bloomberg technology is coming up next. have a great evening.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> this is bloomberg technology. coming up, listening and. facebook confirms it will resume transcribing some user audio clips. we will hear from facebook's vice president for augmented and virtual reality. plus, presidential revocation. a president trump revoked

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