tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg September 27, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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very much a defensive area of the market like utilities, leading the way. muchkes you question how confidence and conviction is there behind -- >> when you look at the weekly we only the s&p 500, had three of the 11 sectors. that's utilities, consumer staples, and real estate. >> banks are up 1%. then it drops off. companies, software entertainment and media all down more than 1% some cases by 2%. bloombergto say the news scoop was the big driver. people assessed the potential consequences on the u.s. and china trade as well as the tech industry. they are nervous. >> lets that deeper into the action. scope on u.s.rg
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china trade relations and the possibility that the u.s. might stem flows into china, it's doing technical damage. we have been looking at this chart this week. here islly stands out the s&p 500 being stuck in a range for a year. the fact that new highs are not being put in. today, on the weakness, we have a lower low over the last two weeks confirming the s&p 500 could drop below 2900 even below 2800. that is supported by the rsi that is clearly rounded down. that is supported by lower highs telling you bullish momentum is waning away. guests saying they see defensive positioning for the month of october. it could get pretty volatile for stack -- stocks. click now to the bell has wrong on the u.s. session, let's look at the chinese markets. sunday night, this will be the
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main focus sunday evening after this bloomberg report about the white house considering limiting portfolio flows into china even potentially delisting some of the chinese stocks that are listed on u.s. exchanges. some of the big heavyweight chinese companies got hit hard as you can see. , baidu is down. the index was down as much as 5% today closing off the lows about 4% lower. be ay shaping up to dramatic open for the chinese stock market on monday morning. >> thank you. i will close it out looking at bitcoin. it is slumping for a six session.
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closing and its longest losing streak in almost a year. down 6% off of its high in december of 2017. bitcoin has lost 20% in the last week. analysts blamed the selloff on its underwhelming debut of deliverable futures from the intercontinentalexchange and they also blame it on wider market gyrations. says strong support may be expected to come in around $7,000. >> thank you. the house committee has subpoenaed secretary pompeo for ukraine documents. --ocrats have called him they called his response to this asked forequate and
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more. they have asked him to appear arguing department officials would have been privy to the july call. we will continue to find out more as it emerges. this issue seems to be going nowhere fast. us or our guests. i want to stay with the political beer in washington. you were saying that markets are responding to that how so? >> when these headlines hit, it sells off and this is happened over and over again. in and itdata comes goes back up to the highs. it you do get the sense i agree that we didn't have -- think of the new headlines just this week on impeachment than capital controls all in one week. if you didn't have those, would be the chalk dust talking about challenging a new high tonight? we almost got the field this week that it wanted to do that but continue to get bombarded by
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headlines both of which were fairly new. it wasn't just the old trade negotiations are going well it was a brand-new headline on some new issue whether it be impeachment or now capital control. there is no doubt that these headlines are creating uncertainty. creating fear. creating the next. -- the inx. i think that is true but i would caution and keep an eye on the underlying data which is staying pretty good in the united states. i think ultimately, that will win out and the rest of this will turn out to be noise. >> he makes a good point. there is also a lot of data coming out of europe, you have data here in the u.s. that would give some of the pessimists a little bit of ammunition to make
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the case that things could be slowing down. when you look at the market internals, you have persistent continued underperformance and small caps. >> yes if you look at the russell 2000, we have seen it lower eight out of nine straight days. we saw this earlier on in the aboutwhen we talked small-cap was part of the market today youen up and have value beating momentum and small caps do not come back. none of the data we got this morning was terrible. when you think about the arguments for the continuation of a strong economy, a lot of that comes identity consumer. we saw growth in consumer spending. it came in softer than expected but i was speaking at a portfolio manager this morning and she said you have the consumer holding the weight of the consumer on its back. probably going to see some overreaction in the market
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because there is so much outside focus here. >> i am looking at the best performers for the month. financials lead the way but you also have energy of their. to a lesser extent, you have a real estate and utilities. for the week, it is the defensive groups that are leading. when you look at leadership in the s&p 500, how can you tell when there is an actual change versus a head fake? we've seen small caps take the lead than it up quickly. >> it is difficult. where certainly struggling with that. i think there is more of a shift going on not so much from growth to value as it is from defensive to cyclical ultimately. s&p low-volume lead the way. large over small caps. me, you have a representation
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of defensive investments to meet which says there is a lot of fear in this market. since have found is that 2008, when you have big leadership by s&p lowball investing, in the next six months the market almost goes higher overall and it is led at by risk on assets whether the the other way around. last 10 years, this recovery has become a year index or a sentiment indicator and when it does well, it says there is too much pessimism in the market when that is often good for the coming future of the stock market. i sense that is what we see here again most recently. >> you talk about fear. i am curious, we saw fear when it came to wework, endeavor, pellets on based on the
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reception of that ipo. at what point is the negative , theption of these ipos primary market when is it going to bleed through into a more persistent pessimism? stock markets are still do record highs. >> that's a great question. one of the worst unicorn ipo debuts in this bull market -- find it very interesting because it has been under the radar if you look at the ipo etf which is the only public companies it is having its worst a day streak since december. we all remember what was happening in december and what that meant for sentiment and pessimism. it has now fallen to the lowest level since february. many people look at this as an indicator saying how are people feeling about the risky places in the market? it is certainly something to pay attention to.
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three-week low today. the trump administration is considering putting limits on flows to china. the trade war heat up. president trump considering imposing limits on u.s. investor portfolio flows into china. wall street reacts. the s&p having its second week of losses. the impeachment drama deepens. a president trump lashes out at the whistleblower. democrats accuse the ministration of a cover-up. >> let's get right to the scoop. the white house weighing the possibility of putting limits on u.s. folio flows into china. -- u.s. portfolio flows into china. again this is a plan under consideration. there are bigger advocates obviously. trump that are leaning towards it. the idea is to limit american
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investment dollars into china's market right now. for example it might limit the inclusion of chinese companies on u.s. indexes that are managed by firms in the u.s.. why this is significant is because china has been opening up its markets to global investors. the bond markets and stock markets in recent years. that has widely been welcomed by the investment community. in this trade war that the trump administration is fighting right now it's about getting better access to chinese market. this is in the trade around but it does seem that trying to block off financial access with china right now is at odds with the trump administration's goal which is more business with china. >> to put this into context, you have trade talks that were scheduled to resume in a few days with chinese leaders coming here to the u.s.. i am wondering, how does this full into that?
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have you run out of things to levy tariffs on? what is the strategy? >> this is obviously a huge pressure point. we have talked about trade wars, trading goods, currency wars, the trump administration has labeled china a currency manipulator. this will restrict capital flows. that's a very high pressure point for china right now. that being said, the sources we spoke to there is a can't right now within the white house that wants to keep the talk of restricting capital flows separate from the trade talks. as you can imagine, any sort of friction in the relationship any pressure point is going to be brought down to bear on these talks. we are heading into the national date, we do for in china. this news coming out of that and coming ahead of these crucial talks, it seems like it will add to the friction. thank you for summing up the
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bloomberg scoop for us. we want to stay on the story acause we want to bring in portfolio manager. the fund he oversees has strong and invest inina alibaba. when you heard the headline and again we want to make sure to stress the fact that the white house is considering imposing these limits, what was your thought about how this would impact chinese companies? i would say the short-term negative impact today. i'm not really clear of how they would go about doing this. at this point, i can't think of anything more than an empty what thed in terms of administration is trying to achieve, i don't see the end goal because in terms of having a direct impact on chinese companies ability to impact capital, it is not going to have that much of an effect. when chinese started listing the
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market, there were limited in terms of their ability to access capital. given where we are now with the alternatives, chinese companies can list in hong kong and u.s. investors can access the domestic markets now directly. it really is not going to have much of an impact directly in terms of chinese companies ability to get growth capital. useave alibaba trying to companies now and having tencent listed in hong kong has not hurt their ability to grow. a new proposal? >> it's the first time i have heard of it. >> even historically, have there been called to limit the flow of cash from the united states into china? >> not that i'm aware of. been takent has seriously. >> one other element to this is the idea of what the potential impact could be with regards to
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treasury holdings and treasury buying obviously china is a big component of the market here. if this proposal were to make it to the light of day which is not really clear that would happen, how do you think that would sidet the market from that of the equation? >> in terms of u.s. treasuries? yes i have heard a lot of concerns in the u.s. about what happens if china were to dump its u.s. treasury holdings. i have never heard of anybody in china in any shape or form whether it is government official or anyone in the private sector even talking about this. there seems to be a concern on our side but not really any sort of call to action on the other side. back and remember in 2014 and 2015, china reduced its foreign exchange holding from 4 trillion to 3 trillion. it didn't have that much of an
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impact in terms of the interest rates in the u.s.. cannot see it having much of an impact here. the only example i can think of in history where anyone has attempted to do this was in 1956 when the eisenhower administration threatened to dump its holdings of british invadednt the british egypt to try to reclaim the suez canal. it worked than simply because the british economy was still on life support after world war ii. frankly, the u.s. is in good shape at this point. --a emerging market investor as an emerging market investor, i would not mind some weakness at this. >> do you think this will slow down the pace of chinese companies who want to invest in the u.s.? chinese company that was on the fence about whether to list here is saying we don't need to
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do that right now. a few ipos have come through on the smaller scale but there has been a trickle of companies going back. it you still see some of the internet companies trying to list in the u.s. market. the appeal of that is not because of valuation or liquidity, the appeal is that it allows for dual shareholding structure. you would almost prefer these companies listing in hong kong where the governance standards are better. space, you internet see the reversal at this point. it is a trickle but you have seen several chinese companies d list in the u.s. market and we list in the domestic sharemarket. >> it's been great to have you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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u.s. consumers spent less than expected showing the economy cooling and what was supposed to be a hot month. senior us now is a economist from wells fargo. there's a lot to unpack today. let's start with the consumer side because we saw the uptick well below what folks were expecting. below what we would normally have for the month of august and people are doing a lot of back-to-school spending. is this a harbinger that we are in the middle of a slowdown or just a one month with? >> i think we are seeing a slowdown in consumer spending which is to be expected given the pace we saw in the second quarter and even the stronger numbers in july that were boosted by amazon prime day.
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some slowdown was expected. i think there are some signs that we could be seeing confidence wobble and that is filtering into consumer spending to some extent at all. >> one notable aspect of this is that the savings rate went up. >> in many ways this shows that consumers have the means to spend. it could be a question about the will to spend. the fact the savings rate is back above 8%, that's very strong in a historical sense. there is still the wherewithal for consumers to spend. as soon as we get some clarity in the trade situation and maybe not the negative headlines surrounding there, the consumer spending could accelerate from here on out. on an annualized basis, it
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goes above 2%. is this something that is going to derail the fed intentions? on a three-month annualized basis, it is up to 14%. that's very strong and consistent with the fed target on that basis. look at step back and the overall inflation picture, the fact that inflation has been so low for so long, i think it suggests that the fed is quite content in continuing to take policy easy. they are not worried about inflation at this point. tariffs are part of what is and we inflation higher are starting to see it see been. in many ways, this is many transitory after. it's not necessarily going to stick around.
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>> a lot of talk about the consumer, people write off the business side of the equation. capital droop in the goods spending and the nonmilitary spending in the last month. even though it is a small portion of the economy, doesn't that he threw directly to what would happen on the consumer side question mark >> it is certainly one of the more cyclical components. that is what manufacturing and investment spending does get such attention even though it is still a part of the economy. the spillover in terms of that capital goods weakness, that is linked to the trade uncertainty and it seems to be limited. we have seen this very wide gap between what we are seeing in the manufacturing and the nonmanufacturing side. really the weakness there remains contained. i think the challenge you want to watch to see if it does spillover is what is happening with consumer confidence. if we see a market slowdown in
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job growth. maybe it's not so much a job of consumers -- more about the means. projecting for jobs on friday? if the focus on the employment report. >> we're looking for another gain of 130,000. that's consistent with a downshift in job growth since the beginning of this year which follows the fact that we are seeing overall economic growth flow. we're still in a very tight labor market. employers are having a hard time filling those jobs and that has factored in as well. trumping up, president doubles down on the whistleblower in a closed-door meeting. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...
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>> mike pompeo has been subpoenaed for documents related to the ukraine whistleblower complaint. the oversight and intelligence committees called the subpoena of the impeachment inquiry. they have also requested testimony of state department officials including the former ambassador to ukraine. bloomberg has learned that the doj was aware of the was lower complaint that has prompted the impeachment inquiry. as early as august 14. nancy pelosi called the move by the administration a cover-up. have reached aes
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five-year high among active-duty troops according to new data released by the pentagon. the army, navy and marine corps also there suicide rates increase. rates along veterans and the national guard also grew. after washington released a rough transcript of the phone call between president trump and the president of ukraine, russia is worried. a kremlin spokesperson says they hoped it would come to that. when asked if moscow was worried the white house would publish transcripts between president trump and vladimir putin. are alreadysions troubled between the two countries. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 27 hard -- hundred journalists and analysts . this is bloomberg. thatoomberg has learned quite squeezes involvement in a
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botched -- what do we know about the so far? >> we love a scandal on wall street but this is another one that is really amazing and interesting. suisse andft credit went to ubs. they're both swiss companies very big on wealth management that's what they have focused on. andent to the rival ubs tried to lure some of his colleagues to come work for him at ubs. credit suisse didn't want that so they hired a spy agency to go after him. then the whole scandal broke because there was an altercation. they got into a fist fight with the people following him etc.. the latest is that the authorization for this spy agency came from the chief
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operating officer. that's what they are focusing on. ceocoo is very close to the and that makes everything a little more complicated. >> this report is based on a person familiar with the situation. >> the plot thickens. we all love a good wall street scandal. i am the first to a bit that. why does this matter for the bank? >> the scandals because they create these headlines do hurt the banks image. especially european banks are still struggling to get the businesses in line. they are trying to move away from scandals of any sort are he and anytime deutsche bank is rated by police officers because of some other reason for a scandal, it looks bad. they don't like these things and credit suisse was trying to fix things up and they were doing a good job then this is the headline.
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>> this is something that fundamentally affects the bank in a real way. people who has been looked at, should he remain atop the company if this comes and is proven out? the story that bloomberg put out there is leading toward spearing him. how is his tenure the by investors? they have been mostly happy with what he has been doing. he has turned around what its recent are you -- credit suisse. these things do hurt and today it might look like the board if theare him but scandal gets thicker and he gets more directly involved at the
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end, we find out it could hurt him. that is a big danger for a company like credit suisse. why the leader has been doing things and now, they are on the way up to see the results of the restructuring. then these questions, and they also have to struggle and the same with ubs, who is going to lead the firm after he is gone? they haven't gotten there. they're just try to make sure they are doing the right thing. >> thank you so much for being with us. from one scandal to another, the latest impeachment inquiry escalation, mike pompeo has been subpoenaed for documents related to the was lower complaint. this comes as president trump took aim at the whistleblower in a closed-door meeting with diplomats. >> i want to know who is the person who gave the whistleblower the information? that's close to a spy.
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do you know least to do in the old days woman were smart, there were spies and treason. we used to handle it differently than we do now. >> let's welcome our congressional reporter. especiallystion is as the house subpoenas these documents from mike pompeo, is the republican response. what have we gotten so far? >> it has been very different between the house and the senate. they are circling the wagons and falling in line with trump. following his talking points saying this is democratic overreach and part of the mainstream media breaking down a president they don't like. on the senate side, we have seen more hesitation from senators. the line that they have been using which i thought was interesting is i am a potential juror in an impeachment case. i cannot talk about the case. that might just be a way of getting out of answering questions but it is also a very
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interesting development that shows just how much this impeachment process has made the situation feel a lot more serious in the halls of congress. betweens a big divide how the senate and house are reacting. it seems like the white house was caught off guard by nancy pelosi's request or announcement to launch the impeachment inquiry. president trump was in new york this week attending the general assembly. they had the meeting to prepare for all of his discussions with the president of ukraine and others. expect a more vigorous response next week? what are we looking ahead to when it comes to a vigorous response? >> this is where president trump is at his best. in a defensive crouch and only attack. we are looking to see more strategy from his team and his surrogates really pushing back on this as an outrageous request.
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will be to win in the court of public opinion. democrats are going to do the same thing to try to convince voters that what the president has done and what he has admitted to doing, releasing the transcript of the call, some of his public statements, it's such a strong dilation of his of to protect and defend and uphold the constitution that there is no other option than impeachment. that will be competing from the message from trump and his camp saying this is the democrats unhinged. >> a reminder that impeachment is a political process not a legal process. sticking with the politics in washington, we spoke with a u.s. special former percent about whether the ongoing impeachment debate -- investigation changes the direction of foreign policy on issues like iran. >> it hasn't had any affect here
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at all in new york. we are finishing up the un's general assembly. we had a productive week. the european nations have no joined the united states is calling for a new iran deal to replace the deal we left a year ago. we also had a number of countries identify iran as responsible for the attacks in saudi arabia which were a clear violation of the u.n. charter. we have had a very good we care. >> i want to pick up on that because as you mentioned, iran's key european partners distance themselves earlier today from tehran and the rising tension that iran has with the united states. france, germany, they had joined the u.k. in saying that iran was behind the saudi aramco facility attacks arias with that no one the table, what is the timetable new type of a international coalition as it relates to iran?
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>> probably proceed in a number of steps. arabiast is if saudi will conclude its investigation of the attacks. they have already said iran is behind the attacks. we think that when they finished the exploitation where the attacks occurred, they will then send a letter to the un security council asking to take appropriate action. in the meantime, the united states is going to continue to intensify our sanctions on iran. until they come to the negotiating table. in the meantime, we will deny them billions of dollars in revenue that they would otherwise spend on terrorist operations. >> i was reading in preparation for this interview. if it only costs iran a few thousand dollars to carry out a drone attack like the one that the u.s. and european nations are saying happened with saudi aramco and the u.s. is placing so many sanctions to isolate iran, how do you work the
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smaller dollar drone attacks if it's cheaper than to do it? >> that is one of the advantages of modern terrorism. asymmetriceaven advantage were they only have to be right once but we have to be right thousand times per day. this is the nature of the modern age and the ability of terrorists to get into their asds sophisticated weapons you said that romer he and. we have denied the regime tens of billions of dollars in revenue. the regime's weaker today and so are its proxies. we have been able to deter and disrupt a number of iranian attacks that they have been looking to execute since may. we have not eliminated the asymmetric advantage that they have. again, president trump tweeting today that he is not willing to lift any of the sanctions. in terms of the reaction for a had offeredhe u.s.
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to lift sanctions in exchange for talks, do you have a response? ask that's not true. the president has made it clear that he is open to meeting with the iranians. there will be no sanctions relief until we have a new deal. that deal dates to address the entire range of threats that iran presents to the world. that's their nuclear missile program, the regional aggression, and their hostagetaking of americans. we're focused on getting a new deal. we hope we can get to a new deal but the pressure is going to continue until iran comes to the table. >> i have to press you on this. in with the europeans agreement with the united states, is there any timetable in terms of next steps for when the international type of pressure campaign might happen against tehran? >> the question is looking at
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the iran nuclear deal, the iranian regime is in material breach of the nuclear deal. we are out of the deal which is a good thing because it enables us to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon. that europeans are going to have to decide at some point whether they want to stay in the deal. that is one of the things we will look at. we think this is an important step in our direction. we would like to see the eu sanction iran, its missile program and drone program so that we can help restore deterrence in that region. was a meeting with the u.s. special representative for iran. has been gutting an agency that is a vital to american farmers. three quarters of the usda economic research service is going to lose their jobs. this is as the u.s. tries to shift those jobs from washington to kansas city.
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this is a big issue. the economic research service, it's a pretty critical report. this is a subset of an agency that dates back to the 1800s. a lot of people rely on the report for crop and planting forecasts. there's a lot of talk about why this office needs to be moved out of washington and into the midwest. >> i am looking at the cost to rent apartments in kansas city. three-bedroom, it cost $1500. >> what about washington? >> i'm getting there. this is literally the important stuff are you how much they have to pay people to make it worth the world to work for them. they have to pay them a lot less. former congressional watchdog
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officials say the reason this matters and the reason it is , the president gutting this agency is because they don't want research produced that contradicts the white house's view on certain things like climate change or global warming. >> that's a good point. they pointed out there were a lot of reports that predated the trump administration that focused on climate change. the new administration came in and said there was conflict between what was going on in the white house and these researchers. >> our views on the world are not aligned. for a decent4000 two-bedroom in washington dc. >> there you have it. that's what people are not moving. coming up, ditching funds. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> let's look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg. elizabetherning warren took hold of wall street. she is seen as a threat to future deals in the industry. the biotech industry dropping 5%. bloomberg.com has a story on the runway. it is giving out extra cash to disgruntled customers. this after service disruptions plate them this week. $1 startup is valued over billion and has blamed the installation of a new warehouse software system on the issues. more companies are going green and saving green. likely and nestle are cutting costs by reducing materials used to make shoes and water bottles.
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google, facebook and amazon are committed to getting 100% of their power from the noble resources which will shave one tent off of their utility bills. investors are fleeing actively managed stock funds in exchange for index funds. here with more is our opinion columnists. awayve seen the flight from actively managed equity into these passive funds. we have not quite seen that yet in bonds. i wonder why? >> that is an interesting question. stock site aree amazing. since the financial crisis, there has been a trillion dollar transfer. $1.5 trillion has left active stock funds and $2.5 trillion
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has gone into stock index funds. active bonde time, managers have continued to taken money and there's still roughly $2 trillion and active and passive on the bond side. i think the reason is that there are so many ways now for investors to buy index is that mimic what stock figures used to do. it gives them exposure to the style but also it allows them to compare those indexes against the active managers are doing. it doesn't addt, a lot of value it's just exposure to the style. that's not yet true in the bond world. a lot of what does managers do you can't get an index for. that doesn't allow you to invest and it doesn't allow you to grade them in a meaningful way. as bond markets mature, i think that is coming and that will make it more difficult for bond
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managers to complete. >> to be clear, we have seen some shift from active bond funds to passive bond funds. particularly in the etf world. that is happening on the margins. you raise a deeper point which is the data, the information around the bond market particularly the less liquid corners of it. what do we need to see to reach a tipping point in the bond market to send it on the same path of the stock market when it comes to indexing? >> to some extent, it is slight of hand. in general, what active managers will do is they will look for securities that have a higher expected return than the broad market. if they do that for long enough they should get a higher return. bond managers are going into places whether it is junk bonds or more esoteric corners of the bond market where everyone knows there is a higher expected return. there's really no way to separate that from the broad
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market currently. if we give investors indexes that effectively included those securities, they can compare them to the bond manager and say there is or is not value in here at as we have learned with stock managers, i suspect there will be what value there at all. >> the benchmark is too easy and everyone beats it. but we will see whether there is that shift. thank you so much. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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next month. we have learned she is negotiating with the house financial services committee. lawmakers have questions for her about facebook's market power as well as plans for a digital cryptocurrency. apple is taking on hollywood. dow jones reporting that the company will take feature films to theaters before putting them on the streaming service three at the hope this will attract big-name producers and directors. diffusee it will tension created by netflix. nobody wants to spend a long flight near a screaming baby. if you're the one his child is doing it you don't want to face angry looks. in our life now giving passengers with babies the option to choose seats near other travelers with young children. they are calling it a baby travel support service. child iconndicate a
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and seeds where a child under the age of two will be sitting and perhaps where everybody else wants to avoid. that is your business flash. >> turn from that to fashion, let's explore a new trend. how do you feel about taking silk pajamas out of the bedroom and rock them in the board room? a of pajamas that are light and comfortable. what do you think about this? would you wear this to the office? i don't wear pajamas at home. >> that's too much information. this is basically a gimmick to charge people $300. i don't know if that particular one was 300 but they range up to -- that one is $600. >> there are some for $275 with white piping. >> that's all for what you
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