tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg October 1, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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situation, no guarantee they will step in unless or until they see a breakdown in the market. caroline: the worst since august 23, s&p having its worst day since the 23 as well.gust so clearly this is quite a marked shift in tone. suddenly the global manufacturing story catching up debated..s. and being romaine: all 11 sectors are down. 2.5%, rials are down energy, financials each down today. that gives you a sense of investors.f joe: mccormick, though, when the needs on comes, everyone they're salt and hot sauce. caroline: and must starts. you abigail, tell me what
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are watching. range charte is the we looked at. he s&p 500 unable to get above last year's all time highs, we have a set this year stalling again, the r.s.i. putting in a bearish set of lower highs telling you bullish is simply rolling over. the bears stepping in. 50-day the s&p 500, the moving average today suggesting we could see the s&p 500 drop range, we were just told about an option trade that suggests some traders are 2700, one reason to think that could happen, take a look at this chart of the s&p in white and the i.s.m. manufacturing data in blue over and we see e years that they roughly tracked each other over the last couple of the , the s&p 500 rising, manufacturing sector expanding above 50, but more recently here course, have two months of contraction for that
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sector, huge divergence, it could be a bit painful for stock investors, taylor. abigail, i'm looking at the stocks index. t was better performing than the average, up .8 of 1%. is after analysts over at microchip graded the and semiconductors. emands for the chipmakers are starting to improve, overall demand trends are weak but not and that rse inventories are beginning to normize and expectations for where quarter are right they should be. a wanted to take a look at what index ans for the stocks on a technical level has come up level.t a key resistance at a chart i'm showing here, the is hitting above the 1,500 level three times.
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typically that would be sort of signal, except that the pink line is the 50-day is still rage which holding up against very, very well. 1,600 ave to see if that level has been an overhead becomence line, could it the next support line, we'll see. i'm looking at gold getting a boost from the manufacturing data since it is a safe haven. it's up half a percent rising for the first time in three rebounded today after the u.s. factory gauge stunk and which he u.s. dollar in gold is priced took a turn lower. posted its acturing weakest in a decade missing bolstered the case for federal reserve to keep costs.ng borrowing precious metal is down for the month and is below the 50-day average for four months.
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on-again, off-again trade as a n makes gold shine haven. joe. oe: thank you, still with us, matt, chief market strategist and sarah ponczek. att, i want to go back to a little bit over a year away from he election and it's starting to feel like election-specific trade may be for the first time into view. you talked about this a little bit. people looking at healthcare stocks. we had a piece of people looking at for profit education sectors that ious are perceived to be at risk if elizabeth warren would capture presidency. how real is the odds of a major policy shift in any direction increasingly is on the minds of traders and investors? matt: well, it is real in that it will -- it could and should impact on the groups affected.
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the reason why i mention that, ago ber back four years when the healthcare center got hit pretty hard, very hard when out and linton came talked about drug prices and such. though p got hit, even she wasn't elected number one and donald trump said he was oing to do something, he never did. the group fell over 30%. that's why i think -- and bipartisan n the issues. especially the drug pricing issue. elizabeth warren fades off somehow, the drug price is a bipartisan one. so is the big brother situation with a lot of the big cap names privacy issue, that's going to be a bipartisan issue and i believe it's a headwind some of the big names. if you're looking, i know taylor semiconductor stocks. you can look at some of those and maybe the facebooks and the google's of the world. it's going to be a real grow ion and it will only as we get past the beginning of the new year and really into the
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eat of the election season cycle. caroline: so perhaps be a little it more cautious on these politically tumultuous stocks. where then to be putting your have stocks near record highs or now having the 23?st day since august matt: one of them are the industry stocks. from the them defensive stocks. marriott -- lockheed martin. merger.ure [laughter] matt: you look at the defense budget, that is growing, the ran i think is going to calm down. it's calmed down on a short-term back it's going to perk up. that's a good one. look at some of the ones breaking down. with the oil strike in saudi arabia, people kind of think that oh, my gosh, hese oil facilities, they're all fixed, everything is back up and running.
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that's not the case. talk udis are able to about their production and they can include their production inventory. those reports, a full third of they're producing is coming from their inventories. we'll see a ance hiccup in the market again. the stocks are oversold and provide you a nice dividend to you while you wait. finally, the bank stocks which i ad been cautious on for a long time. if we can get the yield curve to widen up and what the bank of did last night was really an attempt to steepen that yield curve. if you give them and other to do the same, it will be bullish for that group. i want to see more evidence there. finally ne that could see some outperformance in three years of underperformance. mentioned u financials and energy, they are relatively undervalued. financials got a decent pop earlier in the day before
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manufacturing and data killed all of that. there are folks on the sidelines sectors to these two get somewhat of a catalyst, right? many, value e are versus growth, rotation, some calling it a head fake in september. it's amazing, especially as matt mentioned, after we saw the attacks in saudi arabia, i mean, if you look at oil prices now, oil is now trading at the lowest levels since early august. if nothing like this happened, and yet so many wall street shops out there have been have to place a risk premium on oil now because this just really brings to light that you can have an attack on any of these supplies at any time. we haven't seen that in the prices. there has been many calls for i will to move higher, for energy to track that. it just hasn't really materialized yet, which is unbelievable. joe: we were talking about how
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long this week already seems because of how much news. cool if we take off the next two days and come back for the jobs report on friday? thing really the only that is going to matter for the of the week? sarah: a day like today, we're going to on the next few days friday looks hat like. it is true, this narrative is have a by g new, we if you are ration in the economy. you have the manufacturing sector versus the consumer and really drives the consumer is the labor market. that the story has been the labor market is holding in, the labor market is strong as is seeing consumer wage gains, as long as jobs are being created, all will be fine. that confirmation come friday like we do every month, the first friday of the when we get the jobs data. caroline: as we go out for the next couple of days and see you friday, i want your take on where you think the dollar will in-between and post-this labor data. it feels as though the u.s.
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is almost t resolutely the only game in town high?e doll remains matt: it's very interesting because one of the things that's into concern, we're going the earning season. and the higher the dollar goes, for the, r it makes not just the earnings reports, going earnings guidance forward for these multinational companies. that could be a problem there. you g said all of this, look on the technical side of things, the dollar is getting you look at the daily sentiment index, bullishness among future traders getting quite high. it could see a pullback soon. it's going to play around until get the numbers on friday and that's going to be the, as we an important number, more important this time around. great to have you both. it after the closing bell.
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shares of the online brokerages after plans to eliminate collisions he is indicating a price war. e.u. members may be mulling limit. could this break the impasse? the global economy flashing clearer warning signs today as a ave of data showed manufacturing stuck in a slump. here with some more, bloomberg peter coy and f.x. reporter. you.r, i want to start with is there any good news out there is it just uring or grim all around, anywhere in the something good to say? peter: the global number actually came up a bit. saying that's because of chinese rise that may not be sustainable. good on't see a lot of news. i have been kind of optimistic about the global economy and harder to remain an
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days.ist these joe: that's depressing. romaine: so, katie, the freakout this markets today, does mean we're sort of back to risk?ng about recession that seemed like that was pulled out of the market a month ago. the report reminds us why bonds have been rallying over the last few months. i was talking this morning, the point was made we already knew a global manufacturing slump. if you look outside this report reports have ta been over the past few weeks and months, they have been pretty good. you look at the city economic it's hit its u.s., highest level since 2018 last week. t's not yet time to call a recession in the u.s. there is still some help to be had out there. peter, a glass half in with on chiming
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optimism. restores my faith. caroline: what is the narrative of the spillover effect? looking at an economy that is completely focused on to consumer, 10% exposed manufacturing, why is there suddenly this building of concern that the manufacturing to in s will start effect? peter: without saying it's my view, the narrative as you put a company is at deciding whether to do some apital spending and it's looking at these weak numbers, looking at the trade conflicts and saying, maybe now is not the time, it's not that i'm sure things are going badly, but i a big ant to make investment right now -- caroline: does anyone want to make big investments for the year? peter: the capital spending is weak. that spill over? you don't buy the machine, the machine doesn't get made. he person who would have made it doesn't have a job obviously. the person who is hired to doesn't get machine
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hired. you start to see a tipover wages aren't rising as quickly. it's unlikely that employment up.es shoots that's sort of a lag, lagging wages aren'tt when rising as quickly, it does spill over to consumer spending. let's switch it over to the market side of all this. we were talking about it arlier, when we came in today, the big story was the big selloff in japanese government bonds. it actually reverberated around world, worst day for 2016nese bond futures since on the shift of b.o.j. policy. what were the mechanics that what ispening there and the b.o.j. trying to do now, they're always trying to something new. katie: the b.o.j. announced overnight that theory attempting ease the bond purchases that they have been making. that security a shock wave markets.global you saw the global selloff and it continued right through the u.s. morning until we saw the
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i.s.m. report. b.o.j. is f what the trying to do is sharpen that yield curve which is famously flat. the idea is to sort of takemulate the economy and some of the pressure off japan banks. that's the same reason why the talked about tearing and that's the idea, to try to that yield eepen curve.anchor short romaine: we have talked about and the ecb, fed the idea that the current money trajectory has sort of been a little bit of a weight on the commercial basics out there. a new is sort of mechanism that at least that japan thinks could potentially pressure, then is it not reasonable to think that we could see other central banks follow that lead? it will be really interesting to see. i mean, we were talking about peter earlier who made the point that this could be a sign of
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things to come, that perhaps the bank of japan realizing that you really need a healthy banking sector will sort of send a central o other global banks. if you think about it, central a ks around the world took page from japan's playbook when it came to easing, so maybe out.ll follow them caroline: but, peter, at a time where manufacturing data is hopelessly weak, when it's potentially going to spin sector, is vices this a risk that central banks want to take? far they're not. japan is kind of possibly here.ing new ground caroline: japan was one economy where the i.m.f. has upgraded in prospects.s maybe it's in a slightly different stage than the rest? it's a low urse, number, but yeah, it gets to ecb and stion that the especially the ecb and the fed have been wrestling with, on the hand, you want long term
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ields because that's good for borrowing costs for investments and housing and so on. on the other hand, if you pull down too much, then you have that inversion in the yield banks' ich wrecks profits, the costs of funding are high relative to what they loans.rn on their it's a balancing act. he question the e.c.b., mario and christine is wrestling with, what is that reversal point have just gone too far. we're still wrestling with that. romaine: they're going to be for a while.h it do they know what they're doing? i don't know, you can say it right here. is listening [laughter] . to peter coy from week and business katie. be sure to tune in on bloomberg johnson speaks with charles evans at the gic federal banking series in madrid. coming up on thursday,
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liquidity? >> that's for sure. think about it, you can raise money in different ways. a 2% fee to raise money through private markets ather than the 7% fee that's traditional for an ipo. of course, that's been going down a bit. a you raise money in different way through private ebt or through private equity, it can be cheaper for than doing ipo.ditional joe: i don't know what their are.nces >> no, they're profitable. i missed that one. the popularity of direct listing, some of these don't even though they have done direct listing. the idea of divorcing the fundraising the aspect of the ipo. companies might still need both. hey just don't need to do them at the same time. >> think about how long these companies have waited to go public. airbnb is worth more than $30 billion in private markets. it's quite big.
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capitalists and investors alike, they want people to start going public earlier. is a way to encourage more people to do it, then there is a great hope that this model persuade more people to go public. company, they're starting to sort of shrink a on what t and focus they call their core business? > thousands of job cuts involved and finally for omething that was the most inquisitive privately held company, they are starting to unwind those trades. example, some of those things on the block is managed it is beingple, now reported the wing is on the block. paid f the start-ups they $100 millionre than at the time. you got a great story
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are g that hundreds gathering to talk about direct listings. >> so many people are talking about this. have invited more than 100 of the top privately held firms. you would think every banker in there would want to be to look at what potential ipos would look like for future rounds, by and large, bankers were not invited. caroline: not needed. wanted. it is a conversation going well into the night. ichael lewis is the dinner speaker. they will be mostly talking about this model direct listingings. they don't like the ipo pop. bankers are always welcome. thanks. check of the ick latest check of the latest business flash headlines. u.s. auto sales took a big step back in september. big sets the stage for incentive spending aimed to clear out the old cars from
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dealer svens. deliveries may have swamped 12% last month. toyota, honda, all reported double digit declines, their d ford report quarterly figures tomorrow. a joint oving into venture with india. is your business flash update. joe. shares of the biggest online brokerages, getting rid commissions for online trades. p. securities devin ryan will break down what the price next.ans for the sector this is bloomberg.
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. the chairman of three house ommittees expect full compliance from secretary of state mike pompeo as they investigate president trump's ukraine.with house intelligence committee hare adam shiv, house foreign affairs chair elliott engel and house oversight and reform elijah cummings fired back today after secretary lawmakers are t trying to in his words intimidate and bully his employees. pompeo said depositions set by not feasible. kris collins pleaded guilty to trading charges a day
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after his resignation from congress. ollins had initially denied accusations he leaked confidential information about a was aceutical company and set to go to trial next year on conspiracy securities fraud and charges. after his plea, collins expressed regret and said he had failed his constituents. attorneys representing the family of a black man killed in by a white tment dallas police officer in 2018 verdict iny's guilty the case a huge victory. who ney lee merritt represents the family said the impact of the verdict against felt officer will be around the world. >> it's a signal that the tide going to change here. police officers are going to be eld accountable for their actions and we believe that that will begin policing culture. mark: she testified that she entered the apartment by mistake and killed him thinking he was
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intruder in her home. the sentencing phase is underway. receive from five years to 99 years in prison. that re igniignited a national debate over affirmative action, a judge ruled that harvard university does not asian inate against americans in its admissions process. she said that the process is not perfect, but passed constitutional muster. said there is no evidence of any racial an mass and any evidence that any admission decision was negatively affected by asian american identity. the group behind this suit, students for fair admissions appeal today's decision. global news 24 hours a day on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
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romaine: some breaking news that stocks.ffect energy's norway's well fund, one of the argest out there, says it is divesting several crude producers, and says the oil totalling up to $5.9 billion, they just put out a statement on this, it was we'll try to bring you a little bit more information about specifically what affected by that. big turn to one of the stories of the day. shares plunging today. plans schwab announced to get rid of commissions, the latest strategy in an escalating to be ar that seems weighing on the whole sector right now. joining us to talk about this, evin ryan, managing director and senior research analyst at j.m.p. securities joins us on now.phone right devin, we saw is the market reaction here. for schwab, this is a pretty of revenue, anywhere from 5 to 7% of the revenue. competitors, if
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they go to zero, this is a pretty big hit, right? devin: it really is. it's a big story. it shunt be overly surprising, though. kind of having building to this point. we put out a note a few weeks titles is free trading moving from an aberration to the norm. what we're really seeing right is a number of firms kind of moving to free trading offerings. the firms today are firms with pretty good capabilities, good capital behind them. a different story than the past where you had some offerings kind of in the shadows. that's why the industry is reacting as it is today. bigger threat for ameritrade commissions are revenues, % of their e*trade, it's 16%. there are big numbers. there are offsets, in our opinion, happy to talk about those. a knee jerk reaction to schwab here which ehemoth
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in our opinion, they don't want of e on the wrong side pricing, they build they are cost ss as being a low providers. joe: is it only time that the others have to follow suit? react.they have to the question is what does it look like. going to do they're just what schwab did. you have to look at the customer bases. e*trade rely on active traders, folks that are derivatives ns and and a little more sophisticated. to do is drive the discussion away from the trading price and towards the alue that they provide for their platform. the technology, the data, the service. so i wouldn't be surprised if react. i think they may look to do something that would separate customer basesnt and look to charge a subscription to active traders platform or create even light model like we saw from
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interactive brokers where they tone it down and they provide trading, but it's really kind of a bare bones or less if you will.rm, caroline: the offsets you're talking about distinguishing a value from perspective to a provision perspective, how long can that resilient as we continue to get some of the upstarts, in the cular, i'm thinking robin hoods of the world, that can continue with the longer cheaper and fer cheaper services? devin: that's a great question. the reality is what's driving is the fact that trading trading cularly equity has become commodityized. you think about financial ervices, parts of investment management, custody, as these roducts and services become ized, you ly commodity need to be able to show the is omer how your platform
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differentiated and really around the m it ommodityized pieces, it t be might be around the advice, better service and technology. there are ways to do that. you have to drive the conversation away from that is the trading price. that's what the companies are focused on. innovative e'll see types of pricing models moving forward. hey have to find ways to still be able to capture some revenue from the clients from the areas f the business that are differentiated from other firms that may be offering free, but less around it. joe: devin, real quickly, we of negative ra rates, could the fee go beyond paid to trade, the security lending and some of the there be brokerages
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paying you to trade? they're e service getting for a low price point, models think that the right now are really, at this point, for the most part built revenues from intertrades and from some of the hird party product manufacturers. so that's very important to be able to maintain some of that forward, but clearly that the customer is getting i think a good deal here with all of the i would point out that even with this pressure are ll of these companies generating operating margins in the 45 to 50% level, so that's is happening. it's because they're so profitable today that there is o much competition for that incremental dollar. let's not forget that, even with 7% for ons at 6 to schwab, they can operate at a 45 origin.operating joe: thank you very much. securities.f j.m.p.
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joe: flocking to the cannabis ector in its early stages, lately losing credibility and not all will survive. joining us for more, managing joins us raig wiggins from detroit. thank you very much for joining us. started, talk to us, you're not a conventional research term, you do a lot of interesting deep dives into the cannabis space.
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us a little context about the work that you do. of g: we were birthed out reddit of all places. we now have a subscription ebsite where we do some deep dives on the top companies, both in canada and the u.s. opinions.our we like to say we read financial statements out loud. people don't want us reading that loudly. fascinating stuff, the way in which you were born, the haveinteresting things you been putting out have been of the about the demise stocks we have been seeing and cannabis-related countries, inventory, supply agenda. high on your why is this happening? craig: well, first of all, when legalized and annabis, they allowed only deleted oil form.
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of the dd up to 60% market. part of the problem is we haven't been offering the consumers what they want. another big part of the problem licensed producers, the l.p.s are producing, the consumers don't want. the grade of flour is generally to a grade that you want sell for smokeable form, so a lot of people have been putting hoping for ult and what we call formats 2.0 which this out in december of year which are all of those other formats. lot of investors i think are thinking maybe that's going to save what's going on. that we're showing already harvesting at an 81% total demand rate and we've only penetrated or displaced 14% of the legal market. caroline, the inventory rapidly up very, very
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these days. romaine: craig, why we haven't other re of those formats? the whole idea with the cannabis with the partnering beverage companies and some of the noncannabis players out beverages would have and edibles and other things that would appeal to a much that didn't nce want to smoke anything no matter what it was, when do we get to point? craig: the first phase of can business was rolled out, what we for a year.at is so the new legislation drops with a 17 of this year 60-day window for the products approved by p and health canada such that they can o into distribution late in december. so we're really not going to see anything really on the shelves early january. those formats usually constitute market.% of a mature joe: so, craig, you guys do some ery impressive work into the
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accounting of cannabis companies and, of course, like any other ew industry, it has its own quirks that make it different from anything else. i would encourage people to page where e redity you really dive into it. for someone looking to see who turn, ng to survive the who is going to thrive in sort of 2.0 as you call it. that people metrics really need to look for to see who is starting to build up some in operating leverage? craig: well, i think firstly, metric is follow the market share of shipments that producer makes to retail, not necessarily their sales. hey, ey come out and say, we had 20% sales, that's great. hat's not necessarily great because last quarter on a quarter basis, the retail 33%.ments were up so it's important that you have a measuring stick. e provide that measuring stick on shipments. also, sales to harvest and this
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might take a at couple of quarters to line up if there is some new production online, but there is a huge glut of inventory right now. good part of g a your harvest, are you going to be selling a good part of your comes to 2.0.t the third metric, cash is king, the days of the easy rays are gone. ou have to keep an eye on the cash burn of your investment. is my absolute favorite adjusted ebida. t the end of the day, you have to be tracking to a positive ebida. on the debt horizon, it has to be tracking to debt service or have a lot oing to of debt that is not going to get refinanced. reading the p on financial reports out loud, we thank you, great to have you with us. quick check of the latest headlines now. schwin bicycles is
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a dividend. the montreal-based company said raised its prices. price has plunged 5% this year. has cut the playstation service in half. sony said it's adding limited titles. sony is the industry leader in video games. romaine: time for smart charts abigail doolittle. abigail, commodity heavy today? bigail: we're going to be looking at gold which could be one way that you would want to downturn in ial manufacturing along.
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me, john.for joining let's avoid i.s.m. and all this drama that we've had on the day look at gold. that koob a good haven to play potential sort of recession and/or correction in stocks. ou have a chart that you brought with you back in june and it's not changed except for you act, the breakout wanted? john: yes, so the last time i was here, we were talking how one of the great things for technical, it does everything you want. it's so clear to see. peak, e expansion, recession and this long dreaded trough which kept going and going. we were here right around this spot in june when we were focusing on gold, we were look, this could break either way. on t a little bit beat up and the er sphere youtube comments. i'm not a fan of the predicting business. fact being in the business. this is obvious business.
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here and e an entry this is your stock, this looks like a decent setup for a trade turn into a long term investment. bigail: this is looking pretty positive, it's starting to go down on net volume. talk to us how that helps frame your bullish call. john: when you see it's wound in this very, very tight space, it wanted to break one another. it broke up and now we have a pullback. we have a confirmed uptrend. buyback is a buyable event on any pullback. should you get in? this is a tough one. the further down it goes, the reward.he risk however, you might not get onboard. so you might miss it while ou're waiting for it to come in. i tell my clients all the time, it doesn't have to be guard rail all in or all out. you can leg in on the way down.
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bigail: below that support level that used to be resistant, right?uld be bearish, john: i like to stick to the very, very basics. if this low is the low and this uptrend, i would be looking for these areas for support. up ail: looking for the trend, you need a stomach to on the downside. you have this haven commodity, you think it's going higher. the growth commodity, oil, the global economic picture is also going higher. the same kind of thing, right, you never know for sure. you look at the weight of evidence. you look back here, 2015, 2016, oil was breaking down pretty hard. you can see this huge decline from one low to the next, we have a decline that's pretty heavy. looking at that, you have to keep your eye on the other indicators. steady rise in relative strength. you have this massive divergence strength, how did that work out, we had a 100% rise in the price of, this is
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drillers. so in this particular x.o.p., 100% return. this could be seen from a as mean point of view seen as what becoming a longer term out.stment if it works it didn't work out. we're seeing the same divergence. does it guarantee anything? there are no guarantees on wall street. abigail: for the near term, bullish on oil, the drillers, the entire space. that if you nk believe the oil and gold is going higher, the dollar is going lower? weird divergence to see something out of the ordinary. this would be a whole late stage where all commodities are supposed to dwell in late stage. abigail: thank you for joining us. you.line, back to caroline: abigail, we thank you. hong ns running high in
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caroline: we understand that the u.k. prime minister boris johnson is set to unveil his plan. the telegraph shorting that it will be a radical new two for four years brexit plan that will leave northern reland in a special relationship with europe until 2025. briefed and it would need u.k. and northern four years and custom checks. the ey question is whether e.u. or ireland will accept it. turn to what is going on in asia. marking the 70% anniversary of in communist takeover
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beijing. >> today the socialist china is standing in the east of the there is no force that can shake the foundation of this great nation, no force can stop chinese people and the chinese nation from forging ahead. romaine: for more on those events, let's bring in shery ahn. you have been covering this, you're going to be covering this on asia ahead later. exactly, when you look at the symbolism that we got out of the what exactly was message that was sent? china is rising and nobody can stop it. parade, themilitary ballistic missiles, for example, the u.s. missile defense system, the 41 that was can actually hit the continental u.s. if it wanted to. of new weaponry showcased for the first time in
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china. that is a pretty sweet microphones and the car, quite an image. unfolded about what at the same time in hong kong, extraordinary step including the protester who was shot by a live round, although i believe he didn't die. shery: he was taken to hospital, an 18-year-old man. we have heard from the police say that this was one of the most violent days in six live rounds were fired including two warning, so just the violence getting worse. since june we have seen more than 1,500 arrests. fascinating story. romaine: our thanks to shery ahn. stories, don'tese miss day break australia and starting at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. "bloomberg technology" is coming u.s.xt here in the have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪
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