spin. the equity markets rallied. a couple caroline: fading. going into the close by 1.5%. lowert: yes, five stocks for everyone at the new york stock exchange, so a second negative day as all of the major indexes closed down by at least members out of 30 falling, walmart being the exception, closing up. romaine: and when you look at market brits, you still have some stocks above the 200 day moving average -- when you look stillket breadth, you have some stocks above the 200-day moving average, but you still have to be a little bit concerned. all right, let's dig a little deeper with abigail. abigail: today's stock market

pullback, correction, selloff, we do have the vix on the rise -- selloff, we do have the vix on the rise. what we are looking at, the s&p 500, and then the vix, the fear index, and then the skew index, the far out of the money puts, and we have the skew index rising in the middle of the year, and we see the vix languishing, but the skew was rising right ahead of the volatility, those traders getting it right. skewe bottom in white, the index, and all of this suggests we will see a re-convergence with both the skew and the vix, still relatively low but something to watch. it could be another interesting

quarter. taylor? taylor: i am taking a look at shares of microsoft. interestingly, they were higher, and then we had a headline, and shares turned lower, the headline that some had said the threat of huawei was real and urgent. they had complained to government officials that they were not transparent enough about why government officials should not do business with huawei, and that is what it showed. i want to show you a chart in my bloomberg terminal. it is showing the market cap of microsoft. talking about extending the gains in green above the market cap of amazon, and in orange, losing its lead to companies like apple, and microsoft was picked by analysts as one of the big large-cap plays being looked at. one analyst believes microsoft has a possibility of doubling growth. this was on the news despite the upgrade from jeffries.

what we are looking at here is really why e.m. capital flows have been all but nonexistent. you are looking at the $2.8 trillion dollar market for the e.m. debt, broken down by region, but what i want to call your attention to is that you get paid a premium of 11 basis points a year or investing in e.m. dollar debt over local currency debt, the watches -- why this margin -- the widest margin since 2009, and it shows basically why nobody is investing their dollars abroad with e.m. currency debt. caroline: thank you. levi, adjustedm for the third quarter of 176 million, an increase, and the

estimate had been about 15% of an increase, and also, revenue coming in basically in line, 1.45 overall in terms of net revenue. this seems to be better than anticipated. that was growth of about six percent, and overall, this is ,espite overall sales declining news out of asia, and they say they are on track to hold their full year, as well, saying they are looking forward to the fourth quarter. demandpect increased including for the wholesale part of the business. a portfolio manager, bob. i want to go to you. you are saying this on anticipation of earnings. at things? looking do you have to look at fundamentals, like the number we

got out today, looking at the cpi out of the u.s. tomorrow also? bob: i think you absolutely have to look at both. for the' estimates quarter have been coming down by s kind of so the -3 i where the analyst community is. it could come out about flat overall. so, bob, analyst expecttions -- analysts' and i amve come down, wondering when you are looking at this environment and the tools that the fed has to deploy, do you think that is still too aggressive? bob: i do. i think the number will be half that. analysts, i think, have not adjusted them to reality,

because they do not know where to settle in. i think in a flatish margin environment, i see a hard time profit margins going up next year, and it will be hard to get close to 10%, so i agree that earnings are probably going to disappoint. kind of know this because the macro picture is not great right now, and companies begin reporting earnings in earnest next week. the big banks, too. tradersthe mindset of as we head into the season with all of this uncertainty when it comes to trade headlines and when it comes to the likelihood of companies lowering expectations as they head into the reporting season? vince: i think you have a lot of people looking for capital preservation as opposed to increasing returns at this stage of the game. we are also getting a little long in the tooth. for most traders, when we get to mid october and such, if you really have not made your mark

by then, your probably not likely going to get it done in the next month -- you are probably not likely going to get it done in the next month. that somehow gets washed away with the large institutions. it falls through the >>. i think we will see a little bit of a defensive posture -- it falls through the cracks. i think we still have a little bit of a defensive posture and that we have to get through this week. trade-lightsort of pork, not the deal that trump keeps talking about, and i do not think the market is going to like that. caroline: the haven choice at the moment, bob, we are seeing , and a. dollar weaker matter what, whether it is a day of risk on or risk off, it seems the dollar outperforms.

growth long as economic in the u.s. is stronger than the rest of the world, as it has been so far, and as long as our interest rates are higher, which they are, it is hard to see a lot of weakness in the dollar. that is the reason the dollar has done better and is likely to continue to until and unless we get better economic growth outside the u.s. it is hard to see the baton getting passed from the equity standpoint. at two years been now that people have been trying to call the top in the dollar, and it has been the worst trade of the last two years, and like bob said, unless we see someone else pick up the mantle, and when you look around the world, it is not really there, and trump could easily turn his sights on germany with auto tariffs and push their economy into a deeper recession and take the rest of europe with it, and

emerging markets, as long as you have trade hanging over your head, it is not the place to be, so the dollar and treasuries are still the happy place. scarlet: it will certainly hang around for a while. anddoll from nuveen vince cignarella. from twitterment that some emails and a number of users may have been used for ads, but it is not clear, and there is no certainty on how many people were affected. we will keep an i on this as the headlines cross. that does it for the "closing keep an eye onl this. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters, i am caroline hyde. am romaine bostick. the question is, what did you miss? caroline: quantitative easing, and jay powell keeps his options open on rates. and trying to build. different kind of protest on wall street, climate change protesters.

they hit the new york stock exchange and other key locations to kick off five days of nonviolent protests across the globe. now, bloomberg has learned more. this was one of the key headlines that move the markets, and it has been salvo after salvo coming out of the united states about china. >> absolutely. it seems every time there is a round of trade talks, you know, there is some hope there could be a deal, some rumors that perhaps there is more agricultural purchases that china can make or some looser restrictions on huawei that they could move forward with, and then a lot of other things happen, which is definitely

happening this week. the u.s. has listed companies it is blacklisting, including ai firms in china over human rights concerns, and then we have also had some reporting from a foreign policy reporter here at bloomberg that they are now banning visas for chinese officials linked to some of this mass detention activity against minority muslims in china, and so a lot of these restrictions keep adding up ahead of the talks that are supposed to be starting on thursday amid high level officials. romaine: these talks are supposed to start on thursday. some folks need to be on a plane probably within the next few hours if they are going to make it on time. are they going to be on that plane? chinesee did hear from officials that they plan to move forward with these talks, but as you said, romaine, it is difficult to imagine that when they do arrive, it is quite sour right now, and on top of all of

that, after these talks are scheduled to end, they are supposed to run the 10th and 1 1th, there are hundreds of billions of dollars in chinese goods that will be hit with a 30% instead of a 25% tariff, so as much as the trump administration is beating the drum, saying they want to get a good deal with china, that progress is being made, it seems there are so many frictions in the relationship that would be hard to have goodwill. romaine: sarah mcgregor joining us for analysis. we went to bring in a senior fellow at the harvard kennedy school -- we want to bring in a senior fellow at the harvard kennedy school. all, there was a strategist over at p&p para bus that basically that-- over at bnp paribas says basically all the expect is a handshake. hopefully, you do get some

camera opportunities and some handshakes, but in terms of moving the needle, i do not think very many people have that expectation. what i keep saying, romaine, is that these relationships are not amenable to some kind of deal, like soybeans or whatever. you have got these two fundamentally different economic and increasingly geopolitical systems coming into contact with one another, rubbing up against each other, and it is really an issue of how you manage that relationship rather than waving a major quad, do a trade you, -- a magicng a made wand, do a trade deal, and everything is fine. of 2020, first half the gdp dipped to 1% or something like this, and if the

rhetoric on the trade war gets worse, you may be in recession, simply because the consumer will lose faith in what is happening. caroline: a big investor they're saying we could be in recession if the rhetoric gets worse. do you think it will, or will things go down? tol: it is difficult predict. president trump is hard to predict, and whatever you predict, maybe he will do the opposite. in terms of the economy, again, i do not think the u.s. economy is going into recession any time, but if you look at economic data closely, and you're looking at the political strategy, there must be some concerns coming through, caroline. jobs growth has completely dried up in the past months. relying on the consumer, so if the consumer were hit with some kind of shock to sentiment, tariffs ahead of

christmas not helping much, you are putting a strain on the economy, so, yes, that is one question. i am not sure how much president trump is looking in that direction and is prepared to calibrate his hard-nosed strategy against china in the run-up to the election next year , whatever he may have to do to massage the economy. romaine: so we heard from the new imf chief, and she gave a speech. she talked a lot, particularly in an interview, about standing by the day of multilateral, as you would expect the imf to do, also talking about fiscal stimulus around the world and europe and potentially in the u.s., and i am just wondering, do you believe the structure we have with the multilateral institutions, are they going to be effective in sort of helping the economy globally through? well, multilateral

institutions, at the end of the day, are on top of the nation states. it is really the nation states and their ability to cooperate in a multilateral way, which will really drive things. they really cannot do things from the top down. and one of the multilateral institutions is, of course, the wto. we talk about the meetings next week with the world bank and the imf, but the wto is practically invisible at these meetings, so i think we have to press the reset button and bring them into this discussion. again, without that sort of underlying support from the nation states, they are limited. caroline: it is interesting, talking about the concerns of an, andon, manny rom usually, it is homegrown, not property markets, but this time, it would be a recession caused orexternal factors, whether not the president is an external

factor, but trade headwinds and a global slowdown. does the federal reserve have any ability to target that with the current policy it has? well, obviously, caroline, central banks cannot remove the shocks. what they can do is see them coming and try to offset them, but remember, central banks tried to lift waning demand. as we have seen the last 10 years, it is difficult to press a button and suddenly get that demand coming through. quickly,so just really while caroline failed to ask favoritexit, our topic, he talked about october 31. boris johnson said it was going to happen. what do you think is going to happen? paul: it is very difficult to say. there are still a few are or five possible scenarios. there is the prime minister being forced to write a letter

and applying for an extension if they cannot do a deal. we do not know if prime minister johnson is going to finesse that. we do not know yet whether the eu at the last minute may actually come to the party. there is more chance of that happening than we might think, but i still think it is uncertain. caroline: we will get into that more and you shares. e.u. shares.and this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ a senior fellow at the harvard kennedy school is with us, paul sheard, and we are hearing about the topic being run down, the tensions of the eu and a blame game rather than

actually getting some sort of deal by october 31. how damaging do you think it will be on the u.k. if there is no extension? there will be, obviously, some form of out, but i tend to look at this little bit more like y-2k. they came out with a document about their preparations. this has been telegraphed for a very long time, so, yes, there probably will be in the immediate wake in a few weeks be a negative fallout, but i think it shows in circumstances like that, the things ratchet up. continue to shoot themselves in the foot. the european economy is weaker. they do not need a recession. we just saw the ecb launching some pretty strong stimulus

measures per they do not have a framework to respond proactively -- we just saw the ecb launching some pretty strong stimulus measures. they do not have a framework to respond proactively. romaine: the conventional wisdom seems to be that the u.k. is going to be headed for another general election relatively soon as a way to resolve brexit. i don't understand. how does that resolve what has not been resolved? paul: it has to do with the parliamentary system. the government is supposed to govern. confidence ofthe the house, but you have a minority government now by a pretty wide margin. the opposition refuses to call a vote of no-confidence, which would usually be the automatic step. return, pry minister johnson has twice requested for the option of an earlier election,

-- prime minister johnson has twice requested for the option of an earlier election, so there is this kind of stalemate, where i would not say it was a no-win government but governing from the back benches. have anthe idea is election, essentially put this to the people. the election would be tantamount to a brexit referendum. then they could have a majority and move on. caroline: when it comes to the economic damage after the two to three week initial damage, could that damage be globally systemic, in some way? if we are also nervous about what are the global geopolitical risks? paul: in theory, it could, and one thing i forgot to mention, caroline, and any shot, you will get a policy response. caroline:p yes. --caroline: yes.

it also has the exchange rate and the ability to alter monetary policy. what might happen in the euro zone, that is a bigger economy. that will also suffer a shock, and if it does not handle it well, that could ricochet. , theine: and the irish prime minister singh he still would like to secure a brexit deal. that makes sense at the moment -- the prime minister saying he would still like to secure a brexit deal. from thepaul sheard harvard kennedy school. the ambassador to the eu was blocked from testifying. this is bloomberg. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders

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mark: i am mark crumpton with the bloomberg first word news. the impeachment inquiry continues on capitol hill, impeaching people to testify, after the state department sondlandrdon do -- from testifying. earlier, adam schiff spoke to reporters. theesentative schiff: failure to produce these documents and witnesses we consider additional strong evidence of obstruction of the

constitutional functions of congress. text messages released last week revealed conversations between ambassador sondland and others who were intermediaries for president trump, urging ukraine to investigate joe biden's family, including an executive who donated over $1 million to president trump's inaugural party. a warning today that a global body is facing its worst cash crisis in about a decade, saying the u.n. runs the risk of defaulting on payments to staff and vendors. many are behind on payments, and 64 nations have yet to pay their 2019 dues in full, including the united states, south korea, israel, and argentina. union's top immigration official urged the united states to back a temporary plan to quickly get migrants off boats in the

mediterranean sea and distribute them among willing countries, with others seeking approval from their eu partners for a four-week fast-track process to , relocaterants asylum-seekers, and return people who do not apply or qualified. this.cannot continue like we need permanent mechanisms. we need a provision at least for the next six months. the eunder the plan, would also provide financial, technical, and operational assistance for countries involved. global news 24 hours a day, on air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. romaine: all right.

we just want to bring you some breaking news come one company saying it will come in at the top end of the range with regard 3q, and remember, this company had a range already out there of 1 -- 218 to 221. paypal also making an announcement, saying it sees a charge that is going to amount to about $.15 per share. it says it is related to strategic investment, does not really specify what that is, shares not moving a lot, but we will keep an eye on it to see if it amounts to anything. all right, let's go back to what is happening in washington. as mark just mentioned, house issueers saying they will . subpoena for gordon sondland

let's bring in our bloomberg news congressional reporter, and edgerton.-- anna anna: we did not get a clear statement. it was a surprise for lawmakers. they were already at the capitol and were ready to begin the deposition at 9:30, at about an hour before was supposed to start, we got word from the state department that he was not going to be allowed to testify. that was a statement from his lawyer, who said the ambassador still wants to testify, and he flew to washington from brussels for this deposition, and he said he would work things out with the state department so that he could. caroline: house republicans asking them to fix the impeachment situation, house speaker nancy pelosi saying president trump is obstructing

justice and abusing power. what about house republicans? said, this was a surprise for republicans, as well. they were coming out of this room for the deposition, and there was a slew of reporters, asking them about this, and they did not have a say, because they did not get a heads up that this deposition would not happen, so republicans went to the white house and spoke with trump personally and said, "we have to do better than this if we are going to represent you on the front lines of the impeachment inquiry," so there are some who want to be out there in front of this investigation, and they need to know from the white house what is coming next, especially when it comes to the actual work of the committees, such as a deposition like this. caroline: never a dull moment. a, thank you. the first major address as the head of the international monetary fund and talking about thetrade war dragging on,

leader sat down with bloomberg. >> of course, there is a big issue of trust. view, a also, in my risk of complacency. decelerating. we are not decelerating. we are not stopping, and it is not that bad, unless -- and unless we act now, we are potential slow down. you brought up the issue of trust. it is absolutely fundamental to trust to not only think of what is good for me but what is it that you face, what is your domestic constraint, what are the challenges for you, and how

we can craft a space for that allows the whole to be bigger than the sum of the internet -- individual parts. reporter: i sit in the privileged position, this news coming in. it is tit-for-tat, not only with theobvious statement, with united states of america and china, but as you mentioned, , across everyone howt now, this trade war -- would you define the trade war at these meetings, and what is your to do list to remove us from this tit-for-tat? kristalina: we will be talking .bout trade

lots of productivity. firms have to pay more for credit. because they are trading with a partner that may be in worse shape. the indirect is what we need to zero in on. why? confidenceknow that was undermined and is hard to rebuild. reporter: right. governance is about leadership. what is your leadership approach that will instill confidence necessary to get to your peace of trade? gieva: what we need to show as clearly as possible that everybody is a loser in a trade war. therefore, everyone would be a winner in trade peace. and make it clear that that loss

may be higher on some countries and lower on others, but everybody is impacted. the new: and that was imf managing director, speaking exclusively with bloomberg's tom keene. all right, coming up, a wave of disruptive climate protests, city, with york worldwide protests. we will hear from a worldwide representative of that movement. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ a look at stories trending in bloomberg, bob mnuchin, father of u.s. treasury secretary steven mnuchin, and how he is prepared to sell an

abstract painting 15 years after acquiring the work for a fraction of the price, a de xxii,", "untitled estimated to be 25 millions or $35 million in worth. and technology to transition. payingers have consumers twice, a first member to have all caps work on multiple devices by 2021. -- to have all apps work on multiple devices by 2021. and raising venture capital, with few having women on their team, more evidence that diversity can improve financial results, a female founder making more money than others. all of these stories on our bloomberg terminal and @tictoc.

romaine: u.s. fed chairman jerome powell said an effort to avoid a repeat of what we have seen in money markets is underway, and we heard from powell today. we have heard from the fed. they will extend these short term purchases for a while. some questions about whether this is key -- whether this is q.e. or not, but at the end of the day, this is support that clearly seems to be needed based on what we have had. >> yes, and i think it was surprising to markets that we heard from jerome powell in advance of the rate decision in october, because he even said whether they are going to cut rates or leave them steady, there are several weeks where we will be data-dependent, but he said, "we are doing this, be bypared, and it is not q.e.,

the way, and everything. will be fine. " itaine: i think we can run here, him talking about the balance sheet. chairman powell: the growth of our balance sheets should in no as what wesame deployed after the financial crisis. neither are the recent technical issues or the purchase of treasury bills we are contemplating to resolve them. they should not cheerily alter monetary policy. romaine: i just wanted to play that. q.e., it ist is not not q.e." how is he going to contain this reaction? of the bills dropped, which you just do not see, and as of september 23, everyone was coming out with

research reports on the sell side, saying this is not q.e. don't let it be confusing. the fact that it is bills i think is a way to mostly contain it. you are seeing them trying to buying the yield curve, the long part of the curve. i think it will be well contained. there was the advance notice about this plus the term repo operations that continue to come out. i think it will inundate the short and -- end. romaine: whether this will look anything like what q.e. was. brian: no. caroline: thank you, brian. our bloomberg opinion columnist. and the battle of the exercise bikes. suing echelon, saying

it is trying to game the market. mark cust cutting -- more cost-cutting. price wars with charles schwab have's. -- and all etf's. may follow its bond dip you with a new deal that may be in currencies -- may follow its bond debut with a new deal that may be in currencies. green, push to go climate protesters are taking to the streets of new york with these so-called extinction rebellion, gathering most recently at the new york stock exchange with five days of nonviolent civil disobedience planned worldwide. a student at columbia university who teaches college as an

adjunct professor joins us. great to have you here. thanks for making time in your schedule. >> thank you for having me. caroline: i know in the u.k., it brought trains to a standstill and more. this raises the issue of climate change. what are your goals? we emphasize nonviolent civil disobedience. the goals are essentially to address the climate catastrophe in a proportionate response. we have a few art he demands. -- we have four key demands. the first is about the dire circumstances we are in with the empirical reality of the situation that is not often communicated in mainstream media. secondly, we demand that all carbon emissions are reduced to net zero by 2020 five, which is , whiche more -- by 2025 is a little more aggressive than

the green new deal. then, the creation of assemblies which would be democratic institutions that will be used to implement these drastic changes that are necessary. and fourth, across all three demands and into the future, we seek to implement a just transition away from the circumstances and the institutions and social arrangements that brought us to this dire situation, so recognizing indigenous rights, for example, which we sought violated so egregiously in the standing rock protests and elsewhere, and as we move into a more sustainable future. pretty: ok, so that is a big sort of plate of demands. so far we have seen at least in the u.s. the protests on the street, right, and that definitely draws attention, but we have seen other street protest movements sort of burn out after the public gets tired of seeing it. are you actually working with institutions, companies, governments, to try to get these

done? yes. great question. example, here in new york city, we launched the chapter in december 2018. we engaged in a series of direct actions since then, and in june and into july of this year, we worked with the new york city council to demand through our direct actions that they issue a nonbinding declaration of climate emergency, and then we worked with them on the language of that, and it was adopted and passed. caroline: are other people working on it? it is a consortium, a coalition of the willing. it is not really an organization. it is just an idea. we have symbols and possibles and demands, and anyone who agrees with them, including from other organizations, and join our banner, basically. caroline: how do you get the balance right of disruption without pushing people away?

line yes, that is a fine that we have to walk very carefully. on the one hand, we want to irritate. we are elaborately disrupting and engaging in civil disobedience for the purpose of getting people to pause and ask why, why are we doing this, why are we disrupting business as usual, and then we communicate face-to-face in the most humanizing fashion possible about why we are so passionate about what we are doing. a movement in general, and we have seen some sort of give on this. we were talking couple of weeks ago about sweden and a lot of they reassessing how travel, how they eat, and a lot of other factors. do you think that, i guess, some of the stigma that used to be around even identify with something like this might be sort of removed? there might be folks who agree with you but who do not

necessarily identify with you, if you know what i am saying. think this stigma is melting away, and we at rebellion, i think if you watch the news, you see the circumstances in the world, and people are attracted to things like this because they understand things are going note wrong, and we are acting in the way not acting in the way we need to do for the circumstances, so, yes, we welcome everyone. romaine: so great to have you year -- here. varrato. of a bid for the london -- and a drop in the bid for the london stock exchange. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: all right, now to asia

ahead. itsptly dropping unsolicited takeover bid for the london stock exchange after opposition from the u.k. company and a cool reaction from beijing itself. shery ahn, this was an abrupt bid when we first got it. shery: exactly. when we got the takeover bid, already $6 billion, we thought, really? and there was so much skepticism. it is sort of surprising, although not surprising, the deal seems to be over now. as you mentioned, they were not too happy with the offer, the lse, and they were not really engaging with the hong kong exchange. the hong kong exchange said it was compelling but were disappointed it had been unable to engage with the management of lse in realizing this vision, and now, they have had to try to

meet with the shareholders in new york and london, but that did not go anywhere. also, it did not help the fact that beijing was not too excited about this. the newspaper came out and said there were concerns given the persistent worries of hong kong. caroline: let's talk about that, theree in a way, assuring are these hubs, and without the lse? shery: that is how the hong kong exchange was framing it. it was a out and said combination of the west and the east, that he still would like to have that happen, and he is touting this as being hong kong being the gateway for foreign capital to china, but given the ongoing unrest and violence in hong kong, that may be looking more challenging, and, of course, we have seen the chinese announcement that those limitations on some stock and bond investments, those being

scrapped, so there is a clear sign that they really want to boost their onshore exchanges. big newsso the other coming out of hong kong and china was this comment by the houston rockets general manager. there has obviously been sort of a back and forth between the nba and whether they stand behind him and free speech. shery: he has tried to explain that she is a taiwanese national, and he has tried to explain where this anger comes a taiwanese he is national. say the chinese citizens stand united when it comes to the territory. caroline: we thank you. daybreak asia" and

-- andarrick australia "daybreak australia" later. romaine: this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ♪ i'm taylor riggs in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." oming up in the next hour, black listed. stocks fall after china retaliates to u.s.a. export baby. we have the latest on chinese tech caught in the middle of the trade fight. facebook in trouble. attorneys general met with ederal agencies tuesday adding pressure to probes and advertisi