data-driven. there is more positive news on the employment front coming through. the survey data is not so bullish. ring 3.7 the bells points lower on the s&p 500. columbus day in america, canada celebrating health day and of course the win in the rugby world cup. japan, they haven't won the world cup yet but they won their game. trump at the moment adding to caution. possible other sections over syria, so says trump. action with markets reporters. abigail: i am thinking about a contrarian indicator from last

week, the bullish sentiment reading, the retail investment strategy. many think, when they get super bullish, they will go in the right direction. aii's going south in 2016, same in 2017. last year, pretty correlated. right now, pretty divergent. the bullish sentiment reading at a three year low. some would say this is a bullish sign for stocks for the rest of the fourth quarter. metal: i've got the palladium on the mind. offing a high today writing safe haven demand. china wants more talks before president xi agrees to sign phase one of trade deal. worries about the tightening supply of the metal are still in play.

the middle has gained more than 35% year to date. incline since a steep drop that happens in june. taylor: we know that the treasury markets are closed today but one way we will be able to look at treasury yields is to look at the futures market. it is showing us that yields still are falling a little bit. we are down to about a 161 on the 10 year. know it has been steepening a little bit but it generally has been flattening yield curve story. take a look, the banks are higher as we head into bank earnings, set to kick off tomorrow. we know it had been diminishing a little bit, that is good for the banks. enough to offset some of the headwind's that come from the

interest margins and interest income. you want to take a look at the volatility in the market. it looks like the banks are higher or we kick off earnings. joe: thank you, markets team. still with us, and lester, morgan,o manager at jp and loop, -- and luke kawa. we got this late news about trump sanctioning turkey. how or where are we seeing geopolitical risks show up in the market right now? luke: not that much. when you relate this back to how much it is being priced into or not, essentially a five-point crush in the past four sessions. this is a theme we have had lately. three instances since the start of august when we had a move in the vix lower.

before that, only six occasions. before that, a spike. when the markets decide when the event is over. over,rket saying that is fade immediately. that continues to be applied here. romaine: when you look forward on the u.s. side, particularly with u.s. politics, you talk about tail risk, always donald trump. now people are talking about the tail risk of elizabeth warren or bernie sanders or some sort of left-leaning candidate. do you think it is too early to talk about a train -- talk about a change of political power? anne: i think it is way too early. i think it is fun to shoot the breeze with your friends about what it will mean what i think the reality of the relative gridlock we have seen. i worked in the senate in the

80's and there was gridlock back then. i think it is hard to imagine an electoral scenario that was so dramatic that it would be crashing changes of the kind when you get afraid of what a democratic sweep of a certain candidate might. i think that is overdone. as we continueat to watch what voters are caring about, i am not sure you are hearing from voters this dramatic interest in sweeping change. i think they are very focused on pocketbook issues, health care and back to basics issues. it is hard to see how that would filter through into a broad panic attack right now. caroline: we have a recession monitor taking slightly higher today but the yield curve, when the markets are open, seems to on invert.

when we think about how we want to factor politics into our day-to-day decision-making, it gives us some sort of insight, i think it is way too soon to think about who might nominated or who might win. intentionaly feature administration might be ase to enact, and, do we investors actually have any insight that is different from what anybody else knows? that is a wildcard when you want to invest on non-market-based things, what makes you think you know how the market will react? joe: are investors or clients asking you much about impeachment? anne: it has not come up in any conversation i have had. romaine: luke, you have a smile on your face. when we talk about sort of the

electoral risk here, whether it is an elizabeth warren presidency, and a lot of concern about increased taxation, the idea that corporations who have been in a looser regulatory environment under trump will not have the wind at their back, are you hearing from folks that they are worried about this? is the fearin thing of what could come itself. we don't know what will happen so it is essentially, what can you get worried about most of is that an area of the market that is going to get hit? health care is a sector where investors have been quick to price it in the most. it is tough to say because we don't have a good track record over the past five years on judging the outcomes are the reactions. romaine: everyone thought the market would tank after donald trump and did the opposite.

caroline: what we can potentially look at is the fact that earnings and banks start tomorrow and we will get tangible numbers. from a sector per spec, is there -- sector perspective, is there anywhere you are waiting to outperform? anne: i think that answer comes back to trade. they be not so much the data is the commentary we will be aboutg from ceos and cfos the guidance and outlook. i think it is a very gradual time. certainly the number of things that could happen is higher than six months ago or 12 months ago. a terms of trying to make specific call at the moment, you are seeing a lot of different pivot points starting to emerge.

joe: you mentioned at the outset that you don't consider valuations to be extreme, but on the other hand, it is not like there are a lot of bargains. are there any places that either look like bargains to you or, in a pullback, these are the places that we have been looking for opportunities right now and it would be a chance to load up in one asset class or sector? investorabout as an how you take advantage of something, when there is a disconnect with what you are seeing and what you are hearing, on the other hand, is when you start getting a chance to make some money. when you start hearing polling going one way and conventional wisdom going the other way, that is a clear-cut opportunity to make some money. right now, i don't know if we feel we have a clear indicator

that, if the data starts going this way, we are ready to jump. if we were to see a big pullback that was not supported by the fundamentals and the broader trade picture has not gotten worse, i think that might be an interesting opportunity. it is a very marginal thing. we are not talking about swinging a ton of the portfolio around. romaine: trying to gauge the outlook and potential for recession, the yield curve, what is that telling us, should we pop the champagne and say we are out of the woods? luke: i think it is interesting how unique the yield curve was in the first place, a flat into inversion, which is usually not the way you invert the last leg unthe on inversion -- the inversion happens the other way. a pretty wicked selloff in bonds

last week and it is not clear it was all justified by the fundamentals. the inversion, the on inversion, ,rop -- the uninversion probably neither of them were telling you much. all of them were just telling you that the fed was going to cut rates. caroline: anne lester, portfolio manager at jp asset management. and luke kawa. that is it for the closing bell. "what'd you miss?" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

york, i: live from new am caroline hyde. here's a snapshot of volumes and small moves in the u.s. stock get today. euphoria over the trade deal. china calls for more stocks. president trump says he will impose sanctions on the country. the move will raise steel tariffs and halt negotiations over trade. controversial the cryptocurrency. we will look at what lies ahead for the project. romaine: let's turn to turkey. -- president trump

between specifics on the matter just this hour. he wrote, i will soon be issuing an executive order authorizing sanctions against current and former officials of the government of turkey and anybody contributing to turkey's destabilizing actions. he also said he is willing to quickly destroy the economy. the president also signaled increasing steel tariffs to 50%. let's bring in bloomberg news's benjamin harvey. he joins us from washington. what do we know from the u.s. response to the current incursion and fighting that is going on along the turkish-syria border. >> there are multiple tracks going on at the same time. on the one hand, the u.s. congress proposing sanctions that looked quite severe.

president trump trying to get away with his own sanctions that he announced via twitter, targeting individuals that are involved with this incursion into syria. joe: help us make sense of this. to what weadictory got last week in terms of the troop pullout? how does it all fit together? benjamin: it is hard to make sense of it. a sickly what you have is an american president looking to for aon a nato ally military operation that he endorsed, approved, even encouraged, at least that was the message that turkey got from it. president trump told erdogan on a phone call just last week that he would enable this military operation. caroline: how much bite with sanctions have? how much does turkey import or export? benjamin: i think that is more

symbolic. if you look at the market reaction, you can see the perspective is that this is not the worst case scenario for the turkish economy. there are multiple levels of sanctions that can be imposed here. this is definitely not the worst. of course, you still have trump threatening to destroy the turkish economy and you have people talking about severe measures to include turkish banks from accessing dollar funding. romaine: one of the reasons you had such a severe reaction in u.s. political circles was because of the concern about a lot of isis fighters being held in prison or family members of isis fighters being held in camps. there are reports that some of those folks have gotten out of those camps and moved on. benjamin: so far, those reports seem to be mainly involving the wives and children of isis fighters, not the isis fighters

themselves. this is something that people watching this situation have warned about for a long time. if they are pushed out of the thatthere are indications this is happening already. there are indications that this is already happening. the turks are seeing that the prisons have already been emptied, that there is no sign of any prison break or anything like that. expectingare you anything to come out of erdogan tonight? benjamin: he has already said pretty much what he has to say, that they will continue, that they have their objectives and will continue to push forward. the meeting between trump and erdogan go ahead. all he needs is a phone call with president trump and he

thinks they can work things out man-to-man. we will see if that remains to be the case here. caroline: coming up, lingering questions about the phase one u.s.-china trade deal. why beijing officials are pushing for details before xi jinping signs anything. this is bloomberg. ♪

the questions remain about partial trade agreement struck friday..s. and china on meanwhile, beijing officials

looking to hammer out more details and may send a delegation led by the vice premier to the upcoming summit. here to join us is scott kennedy, from csis in washington. thank you for joining us. this is just a phase one deal know thatcally we nothing has been signed and very few details have been released. do you think that what we got friday was a meaningful step towards the re-warming of the , somethingionship later this year early next year, something that looks like a true deal can be hammered out? scott: you guys are looking for the glass half-full in any way possible. if we are going to be balanced, and i think need to stop using

the word phase one deal, a pencil, a pen, a piece of paper. andre still in phase zero, they didn't come up with a final agreement. they are still in the middle of negotiations and could potentially reach a deal. in april, they had 150 pages of finished text and the chinese still ended up walking back those agreements and said that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. i will hold and reserve my willingness to endorse what they have got so far and what they may get, if that is ok with you. romaine: there has been a lot of gamesmanship on both sides. a lot of it boiling down to economy isry's hurting the worst. when you look at the damage to

, do you thinkies there is a little bit more of a runway to wait it out a little bit longer? scott: certainly. neither beijing or washington is feeling the need for a deal because the u.s. economy is particularly strong, the lowest unemployment in half a century. even though there are some negative signs on the horizon, even your indicators show that signs of a recession are only 25% or so. on the chinese side, they slow down more, but they still have a lot more stimulus in their side pocket if they need to use that. i think both are not feeling an urgent need to make concessions that they don't want to make. caroline: what seems to be the sticking point for xi jinping is the december tariffs.

do you think there is any way that the u.s. would walk away from them as xi jinping seems to want them to? are not going to unless the chinese make really big concessions. the chinese are trying to talk about this really small deal. the chinese want to run out the clock on trump administration's first term. one word that did not come up on friday or over the weekend was huawei. certainly, the chinese want it to be taken off the enemies list and given a new lease on life. they say that is part of a legal proceeding and law enforcement related to sanctions. see how they will find their way to a very large deal that would allow the u.s. did not go ahead with more sanctions or tariffs in december. joe: during one of the last

democratic debates, they asked all the candidates whether they would roll the tariffs if elected, i don't think one of them raised their hands. i wonder if it may be a mis-play by the chinese to think that the pre-trump status quo would reemerge or if we are truly in a new era where attitudes toward china have changed and even if a new president were to take a harder line, that the old way is .ever coming back scott: i would agree that we are not just going good to go back to the pre-trump era of obama and previous presidents who practiced patient engagement, and are willing to wait a long time for china to comply with commitments and follow the rules. they are going to be kind of a

difficult position with all of the tariffs still on. they probably don't want to use tariffs and unilateralism. they are probably more interested in using multilateral approaches and rules similar to tpp. even if tariffs were not their first choice, i would think it very unlikely that they would come at a stroke of a pen, think, they are all gone. that is a little bit of leverage that you don't want to just give up. they would be in a difficult position that they would have to find some pathway out of. csis,e: scott kennedy, thank you for being here. coming up, president trump bearing down on turkey. steel sanctions and redeploying troops, just in the last hour. more on that escalating situation, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ everyone uses their phone differently.

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with i'm mark crumpton first word news. president trump says he will impose sanctions on turkey in response to the military advance into syria. the penalties will raise steel tariffs back to 50%. the u.s. will halt negotiations over a trade pact. the president also says his administration will sanction current and former government officials and anyone contributing to what he calls turkey's destabilization actions in syria. we will have more coming up in just a few moments. bloomberg has learned that china wants to hold more talks this

month hammer out the details of the trade deal before chinese president xi jinping agrees to sign. bloomberg reports that jie zheng a delegation send to the summit next month in she lay. the u.s. and china emerged with last week's talks with different takes on what is in the accord and how close they are to signing. a former top expert on russia is testifying to congress behind closed doors today. fiona hill is the latest former trump administration official to be subpoenaed as part of the inquiry into the president. from the national security council over the summer. ohio congressman jim jordan criticized democrats for, and his words, cherry picking which information would be made public. >> the problem with this whole

process, we don't get to hear some of the substantive things stated in these interviews, particularly by ambassador volker when he said there was no quid pro quo whatsoever. this is the typical process that is played out in the taxpayer dollars of the american people are going to foreign governments for military assistance. appearance comes despite a white house about to halt any and all cooperation with what it terms the illegitimate probe. pope francis's chief bodyguard has resigned over the leaking of a flyer identifying five employees suspended as part of financial investigations. the police chief, the vatican said, bore no responsibility for the flyer but resigned out of love for the church and

faithfulness to the pope. the person who leaked the documents remains unknown. this person was named director of vatican security services in 2006. some states are celebrating the first indigenous peoples day today as part of a trend to move away from celebrating christopher columbus. maine are among the latest. a federal columbus day holiday remains in place. in all, around 10 states observe some version of indigenous peoples day in october, along with more than 100 u.s. cities. washington dc is celebrating in digital -- indigenous peoples day this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by or than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: the u.s. is ready to push back against turkey, we understand, poised to level sanctions as soonest today. president trump with specifics earlier this hour. sanctions on turkish officials and u.s. troops coming out of syria will be redeployed. for more on the escalating conflict, let's welcome george freeman. it seems like a complete turnaround from the stance that trump had to begin with and turkey potentially left rather confused. doing whatident is states normally do. political opposition to his initial move, that move stays intact, no he levels some sanctions on steel and that lessens the pressure on him. i don't think there is anything

extraordinary in this. the policy does not go in a straight line, it moves around. joe: one of the things that president trump has been pretty consistent on, he does not like war of foreign entanglements. that is not to say he has pulled out of everything or that he has his own actions, but by and large, he seems to deviate from aboutf the consensus where troops should be. is there consensus about pulling out troops but the message or priorities in the region, they execute using different means. his argument during the -- the expectation, pulling out from using

unnecessary force. he did that in iran, he did that after the saudi crisis. he deploys force but hesitates to use it. there is a tremendous amount of consistency. at the same time, he has made it clear that in extreme cases, he may well use it but it will not be the first response he has. there is also the idea that an ally is always an ally, he has shifted away from that. in the cases of the kurds, there are different situations. we have interest with turkey and we will follow them. romaine: turkey is an important country. it is interesting to see how russia, iran, and a lot of countries in that region now seem to be staking their claim to either side of this fight. i am wondering, how do you think this will shake out with regards to the alignment and who will be on whose side?

george: turkey is hostile to syria. remember, the united states and turkey have been allied since world war ii. turkish forces fought with the american forces in korea. it has been a long-standing friendship that has turned sour over the past years. in the end, the turks do not trust the russians or the irradiance. the united states has no inherent interest in the region .f staying we talk about betraying allies. everyone forgets that turkey is an ally of the united states, a member of nato, and that it had a real threat along its border. our obligation to the

kurds, to the turks? the answer depends on the circumstance we are in. caroline: how much do previous thinkings about alliances still work in the here and now? the fact that the u.s. has been willing to tear up premade , whether it be europe, u.k. or the like. what deep -- what do you make of the current stance and can it be felt that you go back to age-old alliances in the long-term? george: the alliance structure in the world today originated out of world war ii. that is a long time ago. it is not clear that the united states has torn up nato or that the european nations have. they have not made the kind of commitment. united states has said, if you are not going to make a military commitment, this is not in our interest. goes,s, as the old saying

have put no permanent interests. they have permanent interests, they have no permanent friends. sorry. joe: speaking of friends, let's talk about another ongoing geopolitical story and that is .rexit can boris get through a version of the deal that theresa may couldn't? george: i suspect not and i don't think the europeans can solve their problem either. companies that will not have exports to the u.k. at some point, they will face .he fact you have british politics frozen and the eu bureaucracy frozen, and nobody seems to be able to

face the fact that we have to make a deal here. romaine: george friedman, always appreciate your insights. coming up, left in the lurch? the libra association loses a quarter of its members ahead of the official launch. what this means for the future of facebook's cryptocurrency project. we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: time for a look at what stories are trending. terminal users are reading about three economists at harvard university awarded this year's nobel prize into research about how to move people out of poverty. the academy says the three laureates helped change the

approach to splitting the issue into smaller, more manageable questions. the second woman and the youngest person ever to win the prize. bloomberg.com has a story on a helicopter tour company that has filed for chapter 11 protection friday after running short on cash. the ceo said that the company's financial woes started in 2017. when new york city moved to cut helicopter landings and takeoffs in manhattan. they are trying to conduct more flights out of new jersey. is reportingtter that there may be no benefit to reducing red meat in your diet. an international panel of experts reviewed several studies and found no important association between red meat and heart disease or cancer. the new study is getting pushback from several medical associations which are against the new guidelines. you can follow all the stories on the terminal, bloomberg.com,

and tictoc on twitter. association libra has no lost a quarter of its membership. online travel company booking is the latest to opt out. the organization is meeting in geneva today. let's welcome in max chafkin who covers technology for bloomberg businessweek. when this was announced, there were like 27 companies on board, david marcus told us it would rise to 100. we are moving in the wrong direction. max: i think they said they want to launch in 2020, it feels like .here is a lot to figure out facebook basically minting its own currency. pressureregulatory

brought to bear on these partners, the partners that have decided that it is not worth the trouble. joe: does this represent a seachange in silicon valley and how it operates> for so long, it was like, just launch the thing, then you get back lash. in this case, the backlash came very fast. the regulatory, political anger came very fast. surprisingk it is for a lot of people who follow facebook closely that they did this at all. is thatfor of facebook it is operating like a private empire. maybe they are more powerful than even a country, they have too much power, and you wouldn't -- a currency that would one day replace the u.s. dollar. that was strange. you kind of look at it is facebook throwing down the gauntlet, saying, we will not be

cowed by pressure from congress, the eu, anyone else. it is kind of catching up to them. we have seen over the past few years that facebook hasn't always played these crises perfectly, they would sometimes do something that rubs people the wrong way and after pullback. caroline: is it better arguably for crypto in general and the longer term that a relatively controversial company such as facebook in the here and now drives this forward and gets regulators thinking about it to the extent they need to rather than having perhaps a less controversial but smaller player . max: the people sticking by facebook are the crypto companies. mainstream visa, the financial players saying, we don't want to get too close to this thing before we figure out

how it plays out. having facebook push on this thing, even if it doesn't happen, for the crypto players, you have to see it as a good thing. joe: there was a report in politico about org zuckerberg meeting with a lot of conservative figures rate tucker carlson -- conservative figures. tucker carlson among them. there is a view, when it comes to critics on the left like elizabeth warren, he says, we will fight to the mat, then conservative critics, let's get dinner. what do you make of this? pose fromve seen this facebook before. in the 2016 election, before the vote, there was this summit where a bunch of conservative figures came to the facebook campus and mark zuckerberg tried to explain the algorithm and trending topics scandal to them. i think it is a reflection of power in america. donald trump's president, bill barr is the attorney general,

there is a reason for mark zuckerberg to be more worried about server to views of facebook than liberal ones. caroline: or trying to be balanced? max: the other thing, zuckerberg, there is a threat to facebook that it could be sort of fox newsified. someone could come along and say, facebook is a liberal social network, you need to join a conservative social network. mark zuckerberg really needs to keep conservatives and liberals on the platform. i think if we saw it swing the other way, if we saw criticism from elizabeth warren, bernie sanders, anyone else up in volume, we would see a similar reaction from zuckerberg. in his statement, he said, i have had dinners with effort people, kind of hinting that he is secretly meeting with a bunch of liberals as well. romaine: did he meet with you, joe? now, to another cryptocurrency

in the crosshairs. telegram, a popular encrypted messaging app may postpone plans. a restraining order to stop digital token sales in the u.s. claiming that telegram's coins are unregistered securities. joe: they have been coming down kind of hard on a lot of these. , they levied a fine against them. it is interesting to see the regulation here. in the beginning, the government was going after outright scams, little ponzi schemes that didn't matter. things move upng the food chain. remember, a lot launched in 2017, 2018. caroline: apparently they have been talking to regulators for

18 months. right when we get to the wire, suddenly they are being pulled. romaine: that is the idea, talking to the regulators. aren't you supposed to put things out there? caroline: we will see how it goes. joe: coming up, big banks kickoff earnings this week with j.p. morgan, goldman sachs, citigroup, and wells fargo all reporting tomorrow. bank of america on wednesday and morgan stanley on thursday. here with a look is -- >> you have a lot of declines among the big banks. it fares worse for the big investment banks. goldman sachs, morgan stanley. dlc's have been lower this year. underwriting debt also weaker. consumer banks holding up stronger, let by j.p. morgan. they have to contend with the yield curve. already did reduce

interest rate expectations. make of america did as well. -- the incomee is might not be pressured to the end of the year as we expect rates to get lower for the other thing people will be looking at is the bottom line. we have the efficiency ratio for a lot of banks. citigroup at the bottom at 56%. that is not where they want to be. they want to get to the low 50's by the end of this year. two, we want to see them gaining share even while keeping costs in line. bank of america and j.p. morgan, we want to see them expanding networks while also keeping costs in line. it will be a big story about how these banks can return money to shareholders while keeping a lid on all of these costs.

caroline: we thank you for making some time on our show. coming up china set to release more economic data. discuss what to expect and the implications. this is bloomberg.

caroline: china set to release september consumer price information data. shery ahn joins us with more after dyer economic data on exports and imports. shery: we are expecting consumer price inflation that will be strong numbers, also not bad for the pboc in terms of easing. consumer price inflation is expected to have risen about 2.9% year on year for the month of september. this because prices have surged 70% since september given the ongoing swine fever epidemic.

consumer goods are likely to stabilize because consumer demand is not huge and producer prices are expected to come in again in contraction territory. pboc?e: what about the everyone is waiting to see what they could do. shery: we are talking about exports falling 3.2% in dollar terms from a year earlier but it is the imports number, the gdp chart on the bloomberg, we are talking about huge declines in dollar terms, down 8.5%, nine out of 10 months in decline, which shows you that the economy is slowing down. cpi rising. they want to keep consumer price inflation around or below 3%. becausets saying that this is because of poor prices, the pboc will look right through this and continue with easing measures. joe: how do the prices in hong kong spillover into the mainland

economy? shery: it does not help sentiment. we have seen escalating. detonatinging about explosive devices in part of home -- part of hong kong for the first time ever. a police officer slashed in the neck. things do not seem to be stabilizing in hong kong. caroline: will keep a close eye on those protests. check out more on daybreak australia and daybreak: asia starting at -- "omaine: "bloomberg technology is next. joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders

to the wait did we just win-ners. everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today.

♪ taylor: i am taylor riggs in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." softbanknsiders a bailout as they are running out of cash. we have the latest. plus, cutting losses. the huber ceo says they have plans to revamp the company